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Sorry to town; I died with a lot of information.
I literally did not give this information to anyone the night I died because up till the deadline I was unsure about the players I was PMing.
Originally I planned on giving the info to syllo+meapak+gonzaw but only ended up telling about half of it to syllo (i.e that chaoser was town)
When I died I hoped Meapak would realize why I didn't tell gonzaw anything in the last cycle; up till the day I died the vote patterns supported scum being between Palmar/Gonzaw/chaoser/Cephiro (not Wiggles as he had thought)
ET didn't fit the pattern I was looking for and I did not have much contact nor many thoughts on him from what I can remember. He played very well though, props to him especially.
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There was a reason I took the opportunity to shoot you and syllo simultaneously. I feared exactly the wrath of the other had only one died.
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Also Cephiro ended up linking himself to chaoser not only in vote patterns in round B but fluked in round A as well.
That type of fluke happened with Wiggles only in round A. I think meapak highlighted that in our spreadsheet or perhaps he found Wiggles behaviorally scummy, I'm not really sure. However, Wiggles didn't fit properly with any team based on the combined information and thus could not possibly be scum to me. Sadly I didn't talk to him as much as I could or should have, but I had to talk to quite a few people.
I ignored my behavioral read of sloosh almost solely on the vote pattern analysis.
Sadly the only problem was that Cephiro chose to play in such a fashion that linked him incredibly hard to BC and chaoser. The round A fluke only worked in scum's favor as it tied Cephiro perfectly to that scumteam.
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On May 25 2012 20:08 Palmar wrote:
There was a reason I took the opportunity to shoot you and syllo simultaneously. I feared exactly the wrath of the other had only one died.
Yeah our knowledge of the setup was so minimal that I assumed if I gave syllo at least the more important half of my info (that I thought you were scum) and I died instead of him (I really didn't expect to die that night) that he could piece together the rest of it.
He wasn't agreeing with the things I was telling him so I was also more reluctant to tell him the other things. I speculated with him for a while and decided I'd rather not tell anyone else. I should've thought of the scumteams combining their shots, but it didn't occur to me that we could both die. You played that well.
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That linked shot engineered by you two was a pretty good idea, now that I think about it. WBG and syllo were on the verge of making some good breakthroughs, but we shot them down while they were in a position that most benefitted us (syllo thinks palmar is town, WBG thinks I'm town for the most part).
I think that people think that the town played badly, but overall I think the game was evenly matched. Town correctly figured 4 of the scum (Palmar, Sandroba, chaoser, BC) in a timely manner, leading to the murdering of the few town leaders. The fact that the town was denied several effective scumhunters since they were red, while the 2 "newbie" scum (myself and gonzaw) are decently experienced in scum play, meant that the town had a large obstacle they had to hurdle over.
I forgot to mention that I LOVEEEEE the multiple faction play; it meant that I legitimately had to try and read people, allowed for interesting alliances, and meant that proactive play was strongly rewarded. I'm curious to see how I'd react to it from a townie perspective; I'll be sure to autosign up for any multi faction games.
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The only problem with multiple faction play is that it seems very difficult to win. Essentially, if town doesn't have a 50% chance of winning, which I think they did this game, the game is imbalanced, but that makes it extremely frustrating for scum to have to share the other 50% chance of winning with another team, essentially making your chances of coming out ahead only 25%. Assuming complete balance.
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The inherent imbalance in multifaction play is volatility.
At some point into my last day I had 4/6 scum but the volatility of the game was increased further by the voting system. It rewarded idiots who wanted to make a point just to make a point. If mafia pisses off one townie then even if all the other townies consolidate their votes that single guy can end up screwing over the lynch.
That happened this game not once, not twice, but at least THREE times. That's unprecedented in a game of mafia for a single person to have that much power.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Amidst all the really cool analysis about the whole game, what I find most pertinent is that Meapak could still have worked it out and won it for town at the end if he hadn't been compulsive.
For everything that came before it, it came down to that.
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That is the sign of a well balanced game.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Yeah, I enjoyed reading it tons 
I find it interesting how often it actually comes down to a final day situation even where perhaps one team outplayed the other (not saying it's necessarily the case here).
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Ok, basically the only reason I didnted survive day 4 was because palmar voted early in the day and couldn't give me his votes. Sandroba and I were playing for a joint mafia draw at that point with a small chance of backstabbing and he was willing to out palmar for me since apparently palmar wasnt communicating well with his team at the moment. Obviously he was not willing to out ET since he was deep in the circle and I told him I couldn't be saved by putting my teammate (cause gonzaw was also deep in the townie circle). Sandroba thought ceph was on my team thus I would be saved no problem but when he learned he wasn't, I was fucked. Ceph also gave his votes early that day so my negotiations with him to get someone else lynched that day fell through and he wasn't able to help.
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I was allianced with Sandroba. It was so easy to figure out who was town or not in PM land if you wanted to link up lol. Just talk about KP setup with people you think are mafia and mention the 3 KP limit. Then end with a "let's work together to figure things out" and bam, instant alliance.
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Man, this game was so interesting to read. I wouldn't have liked playing it because of the pm's, but it makes for some really interesting thought material.
ET, you really did have a huge improvement in pm scum play this game over SS. Congrats.
I wasn't following all that closely during the game, but I gotta mention that I really thought meapak was scum after wbg died - his in-thread behavior changed so drastically.
I'm also really impressed that two scum players managed to be in the final three of the secret pm circle, and weren't in contact with each other or knowledge of who each other was.
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Also, MZ, why did we plan on having sandro give votes to Palmar/prplhz in our Day 6 plan?
If we had planned for sandro to give votes, to let's say, Katina or sloosh, then we could have ACTUALLY gotten sandroba lynched as well!
That would have been more fun!  (I can't imagine the face of ET had that happened )
On May 25 2012 22:36 chaoser wrote:
Ok, basically the only reason I didnted survive day 4 was because palmar voted early in the day and couldn't give me his votes. Sandroba and I were playing for a joint mafia draw at that point with a small chance of backstabbing and he was willing to out palmar for me since apparently palmar wasnt communicating well with his team at the moment. Obviously he was not willing to out ET since he was deep in the circle and I told him I couldn't be saved by putting my teammate (cause gonzaw was also deep in the townie circle). Sandroba thought ceph was on my team thus I would be saved no problem but when he learned he wasn't, I was fucked. Ceph also gave his votes early that day so my negotiations with him to get someone else lynched that day fell through and he wasn't able to help.
Ehm....did you know Cephiro would give Wiggles 2 votes?
Please tell me you didn't >_>
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Ahhhh!!! Should have pushed ET harder!!!
I thought one of MZ or ET was scum since the formation, (props to gonzaw for deceiving me again >.>) and only with Wiggle & katina's flip did I realize gonzaw was scum, and that my earlier suspicions of one of them being scum weren't unfounded. I concluded that MZ was the final town. (its funny as gonzaw defended you as town on SoaF meta but I knew from that clash in SMMVII that you were much much more aggressive as town).
I tried deceiving ET with PMs to go for the 2-1-1 victory, but the unexpected KP made the situation quite different, putting us at 2-1. I hoped that MZ would be able to deduce my towniness from his own readings (I think I overestimated how townish I looked) and that PMing him will induce paranoia and so it was best to leave him alone.
I guess I fooled ET? But ET fooled MZ so props to him. I was half thinking that MZ was playing a trick on ET to get some response and thus a better read on him but I guess not.
Here are the final PMs.
+ Show Spoiler [PM with Meapak] +To: Meapak_Ziphh [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: liar game - we can still win Date: 5/24/12 05:02 First, my reads: http://i.imgur.com/Q2oh3.pngIf you pull up each person's filter, you will notice them supporting each other / identify when the busses start happening. For instance, gonzaw's filter will show him soft defending sandroba early on in the game, and echelon's filter will show the same for chaoser. Behavioral analysis puts you as final town as well. Katina pushed gonzaw hard - I wasn't notified that I would be saved but I was, and her final wish was go for gonzaw. My PMs indicate that Echelon has been unreasonably suspecting (showing some weird clarvoyance) into the possibility of this situation - when he shared reads he suspected one of the trio well before the final axe. The thread indicates that out of the three responses that yours is the most genuine. You care about town. That is what I see. How can I prove my towiness? Well I'm not sure I can prove that behavourally, but voting analysis supports me because if I was yokoya (red) I would have voted with chaoser twice (unlikely since he was not under scrutiny till D4 got going and all four of us voted with him), and if I was harimoto (orange) it is unlikely due to my hard going after palmar. But my towniness is something I can't really prove. Well, I suppose by process of elimination I can prove that I must be the last townie. Anyways, here is how we win (possibly) We split votes 1-1. We dupe scum via PMs and whatnot, and hope they land in majority (i.e. vote 2-0). Then we end up 3-1 with one of us in the majority, one in minority. Then, we win by dumping 5 votes onto each other. Scum can either: vote 5 each other in which case all three die and the townie in minority wins vote not 5 each other in which case both die and town wins 1 of them votes 5, the other doesn't and thus 1 scum dies in which we split 1-1 and scum lands majority and dies. If they team up then yes it will be perpetual draw. But they don't know who the other scum is. This is the liar game - where we work up false visages, trick them into voting into majority and win. You are right in that the first cycle after this will determine whether we win or we draw. Gonzaw aint gonna listen to me. ET I might be able to deceive, but who knows what correspondence has been occuring between the two. I will begin my PMs with ET now. I give you my word that I am town, and I think you are last town. I will be treating you as such. There is no guarantee that I am myself duping you as I will be duping ET, since I could be elaborate scum, but I think you would be giving me too much credit to call it excellent scum play.
+ Show Spoiler [PM with ET] +
To: EchelonTee [ Profile | Buddy | Report ]
Subject: Re: liar
Date: 5/24/12 05:09
Alright, didn't tell you the full story because I was trying to figure out which one of you are the last town.
Katina did not tell me anything, but her last PM told me her wishes to lynch gonzaw. Seeing her flip town and rereading her statements, as well as gonzaw's unnecessary grilling of her (why would you do that to scum?) I find myself in agreement with that sentiment.
I know earlier when you shared your reads you said that if it was between me and gonzaw I would get the axe - hopefully a re-read of the situation will change your mind.
As for Meapak, I've already expressed my concerns with you before this whole fiasco. I really thought Wiggles at least would flip, but with the two town flips it seems that my earlier suspicions were not unfounded.
In the least, there is still a way we can win despite what people are saying in thread.
We split votes 1-1. We dupe scum via PMs and whatnot, and hope they land in majority (i.e. vote 2-0). Then we end up 3-1 with one of us in the majority, one in minority.
Then, we win by dumping 5 votes onto each other.
Scum can either:
vote 5 each other in which case all three die and the townie in minority wins
vote not 5 each other in which case both die and town wins
1 of them votes 5, the other doesn't and thus 1 scum dies in which we split 1-1 and scum lands majority and dies.
If they team up then yes it will be perpetual draw. But they don't know who the other scum is. This is the liar game - where we work up false visages, trick them into voting into majority and win.
By now if you haven't figured it out I think you are last town.
Gonzaw has closed off his ears to me, and right now I'm in the process of PMing Meapak. I'll keep you updated if I get any responses. If you trust me, I'd advise you to do the same (but don't give away that we have hidden agenda, still express some suspicions of me or whatnot).
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No i didn't.
Also my biggest failure was not saving BC -_-. I realized too late that it doesn't matter if people think you're mafia. The more votes you control as the game goes on, the more likely you were going to survive, especially if people were going for multilynch. With our alliance with Harimoto, had BC been alive, we would have controlled an overwhelming number of votes so that the two teams could save each other.
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So you planned on turning against ET sloosh?
Damn, I think my plan would have worked then 
Also, I'm adding all my PMs from this game, so if someone has A LOT of free time, feel free to check them
It would be nice if this forum had a feature to work with PMs easier. Like having the option of posting PMs directly, or posting groups of them, or having the options of the mods checking those PMs as well (as in, if I send a PM to MZ for instance, both Ver and Incog would get a copy of it, so they know everything about the game).
EDIT: chaoser, if BC was alive by Day 4 (with our alliance)...I'm sure both of you would have been lynched at the same time or something, considering our luck >_>
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I had him and you pegged as mafia. It wasn't turning on him since we were never of the same alignment.
I guess I got caught up in making convoluted plans, and should have just pushed my read hard in the thread, but I felt like his "town read" on me was something I could manipulate.
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On May 26 2012 00:56 slOosh wrote:
I had him and you pegged as mafia. It wasn't turning on him since we were never of the same alignment.
I guess I got caught up in making convoluted plans, and should have just pushed my read hard in the thread, but I felt like his "town read" on me was something I could manipulate.
What I mean is that you didn't think he was townie.
That was enough for me.
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United States2095 Posts
This game really hurt to watch. GJ Goznaw, although I knew. And Palmar somewhat nicely played. Syllogism ha I was right. And WBG was really sad for you to die.when you did.
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EPT
