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On April 14 2012 20:40 KharadBanar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote:
I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4. How about you express the percentage as a probability of someone being Mafia? So everyone starts at 25% (3/12) and goes up or down with town reads or scum reads that you have on him; the sum of all percentages should be 300% since there's three scum members in the game right now. That way it's pretty easy to decide which lynch candidates you're comfortable with, namely everyone over 50% chance of being Mafia which I agree yomi looks to be right now. willz I have pegged at about 45%, but I would not be comfortable lynching him right now. I think the night is not the time to discuss one's reads in depth though, because better cases and discussion can be made when we know the results of the night actions and who flipped what. The only persons who really need to consider whom they think to be most likely Mafia/most likely to be shot by mafia should be the blue roles, because they need to decide whom they target with their actions. However, in my opinion they should do so for themselves so that scum can't know who's going to be protected/shot/blocked etc. That being said, if a vigilante is in this game I would like him to announce his action at the end of the night/one minute before the deadline, when Mafia can't react to his shot anymore. With this, I end my night rant and won't be very active in discussion until we have good information about the results of the night actions.
I think your point about the percentage counts is semantics... But whatever, it makes some sense. I'll try to remember that in the future.
It's true that better discussion can be had after the night actions are over, but one reason I want Acrofales and Willz to say something is that they were my original strong town reads. If my original feelings were correct, either of them could well be shot tonight. And if they are shot before getting to say anything, we will have less to discuss tomorrow. Being town doesn't mean you're right, but flipping town gives your opinions at least some additional weight. That's why I don't want them waiting for the night actions until posting. Also, I can read and respond to their opinions before the night actions in case I get shot myself. And if they act pro-town now, before deadline, they have a much higher chance of landing Doctor protection too. I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me).
I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that.
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On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.
The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay?
Really? I thought roleblock stops Mafia KP in this setup. Just look at this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324743&user=151616¤tpage=3 (the one where KharadBanar makes his last will and roleclaims before his death) Could we please get confirmation from a host?
Ah, yeah... It doesn't really make sense for a blue to ask being jailed. But you don't know if I'm actually Jailer and just making the Mafia WIFOM into not shooting me, do you? Everything is possible. Even me being Mafia and wanting to buy a bit of credibility by sacrificing my power. I haven't announced my role yet.
I'm glad you started posting and I like your response to my criticism of being AFK for the lynch. At the moment you read very town for me, so I agree with vonKlaust that you should be protected. At least we should encourage the Doctor to protect you - even if he decides otherwise, Mafia can't risk to waste their KP on you while you well might be protected. But I don't agree about telling who to investigate, because it would be too easy to frame then.
Vigilante: yomi (preferably also explain your choice at the deadline, look at GOT where SLJ did this as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3)
Jailer: Xatalos
Doctor: Acrofales
Detective: use your own judgement
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On April 14 2012 21:14 vonKlaust wrote:Also, about breadcrumbing, keep this in mind: Show nested quote +11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM.
Hahaha... I remember how Acrofales did this in GOT and got modkilled...
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yomi, I concede the fact that you panic-voting for Willz wasn't necessarily a Mafia play. It's explainable from a town perspective as well. You accusing me of being overly aggressive (or heavily focused on your lynch) isn't actually a suspicious play either - I just tried to read between the lines and saw a possible Mafia motive for you saying that. I agree now, though, that it's useless to think like that... I need to calm myself a bit and only look for clear Mafia plays, not somewhat potential Mafia plays.
With those two arguments trashed, there are still a lot of reasons to believe you are Mafia:
1) You were totally useless during the first day and promised to contribute during the second day:
On April 13 2012 14:22 yomi wrote:
I want to make a bigger contribution than going in circles with you. Which I plan to do tomorrow.
Yet your "bigger contribution" was merely another case against Dittert, at a timing where you would slip by unnoticed almost certainly. You did mention the possibility of Dittert playing dumb to distract us, which is a plausible idea, but not enough to make your existence for the whole 48 hours useful. You really think lurking for 40 hours and then posting one, small new idea at an awkward timing is pro-town play?
2) Considering the scenario where you are Mafia and Willz is town, it would just make so much sense for you to leisurely claim Willz's innocence and then go back to lurking while Willz gets lynched. That way you would get a more townie impression for the next day and a powerful weapon to go after the people who pushed for Willz's lynch, without appearing suspicious yourself. Now, of course there are other possibilities: you could be both town, both Mafia, or Willz could be Mafia and you town. I have explained earlier why I don't feel like Willz is a very likely Mafia at the moment, which leaves us at the possible scenarios (in my eyes) of both town or you Mafia & Willz town.
Let's consider you are both town for a moment. Then take a look at this statement for example:
On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.
This is just an extremely meek and vague attitude towards the whole event. Look at what I did: Willz didn't strike me as Mafia, so I focused all my energy on getting a better Mafia read lynched instead of him. Then look at what you did yourself: you were much more certain of Willz's innocence than I was, yet you put in zero effort to get someone else (Dittert, for example?) lynched. Why would you be so disinterested in your best town read getting lynched right in front of you? And it looks like you just ignored the case Acrofales made against him and casually said "btw, Willz is town for sure, by all means lynch him and see I was right tomorrow!". If you are town, your attitude is pretty disturbing... There is a small possibility of you just being lazy / confused, but it doesn't make nearly as much sense as the scenario of you Mafia & Willz town.
3) Your response to my accusations was extremely defensive and panicked. Your defence consisted of A) personal insults against me B) WIFOM about Mafia's inner relations C) desperate comments like "can't believe it has come to this but I must protect myself" - and how do you protect yourself, not by explaining yourself calmly or contributing something at last, but instead by voting for Willz and posting ridiculous WIFOM like this:
On April 14 2012 07:01 yomi wrote:
me and willz led the charge against brood originally
now it seems the town's top suspicions are:
me
willz
brood
yet us three have attacked each other frequently. congratulations I pretty much hate you guys. please stop and think more clearly about the chain of accusations and what it means about possible combinations of mafia.
If you can explain all this sufficiently, I'll be very surprised (especially considering how suspiciously you have defended yourself so far). Make a calm, collected analysis of this post and if you can still convince me, I'm willing to consider another Vigi target. The Vigilante has the final call about this, of course.
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On April 15 2012 00:50 imallinson wrote:
@Xatalos
I'm not sure if you realise or not, because you seem very adamant about the vig shooting someone tonight, their ability is once per game not once per night. It's a lot better to save it till they are almost sure their target is scum. Having the vig shoot town basically loses us a blue for a loss for town.
Well, there are pros and cons to each tactic. Let's take a look:
A) Shoot now
+ Get rid of someone suspicious/useless/anti-town right away to see his flip and get more out of Day 2+ (if he is Mafia, it's a perfect situation, and if he is town, Day 2 is saved for someone else's lynch and we get good information even out of his town flip)
+ The Vigilante is almost quaranteed to have a chance to use his ability, unless the Mafia Roleblocker gets lucky or the Jailer unlucky
+ The Vigilante can claim his shot right before it actually happens to have a pretty certain proof of his alignment - thus one player less to worry about when deciding who to lynch
- It's harder to hit a Mafia at this point, because we don't yet have all that much information
B) Shoot later
+ Have a higher statistical chance of hitting Mafia instead of town
+ Possibly kill two Mafia in a row if two obvious Mafia players appear during the day
- Risk not being able to shoot at all (Vigilante gets killed / found out and roleblocked before he can make his move)
- Have less information to go with on Day 2, potentially wasting the day with everyone voting for the player you would have Vigi shot earlier anyway
- You have no proof of your role and, if worse comes to worst, might even get lynched before you can use your ability
So, it's up for the Vigilante to decide. I'm still waiting for yomi's response, but unless he makes a convincing defence, I'd say killing him is A) a very likely Mafia kill B) gives a lot of information about the events of day 1.
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On April 14 2012 23:51 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case.
I want you to explain this part right now. Your logic here is so horrible I can't even decide what to think about it.
1) If you are town, why do you want to die so badly? You can't be 100% certain I am town or 100% certain yomi is Mafia, but you CAN be 100% certain of your own alignment. So, if you actually are town and want to achieve a town victory, why would you ever want to kill the only 100% confirmed town player (yourself)? True, it would give us some new information, but killing yomi would give us equally much information. Even if you're not confident that yomi is Mafia, at the very least he is infinitely more likely to be Mafia than yourself (if you are town yourself).
2) You seem pretty hesitant about killing yomi, yet you want to get yourself killed so that you can "help my case against yomi". I don't see any kind of logic here. Besides, you flipping town wouldn't help my case against yomi especially greatly. It wouldn't make any sense for you two to be Mafia & Mafia anyway (why would yomi casually mention you are town in that case?). Your town flip wouldn't make me significantly more suspicious of yomi than I already am, and then we would have wasted our only Vigi shot on a townie who wants to get himself killed. If you are town, you are 100% confident in your own innocence, so there is zero reason to call for a Vigi shot on yourself.
Overall, I don't think you are Mafia based on this, just a townie with a death wish and horrible logic. At least I can't imagine any situation where Mafia would want to get Vigi shot.
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On April 15 2012 01:21 Acrofales wrote:
Once again. Stop assuming that claiming a vigi shot is a good way for a vigi to get town credit. Mafia can use this easily to gain town credit too (at the very least until N2, when kill flavours may not line up).
I don't think Mafia would be up for such a huge risk. Imagine this: player A (Mafia) claims he is a Vigilante and that he shot yomi (based on my suggestion). However, the real Vigilante decided to shoot somebody else after all. Player B (Vigilante) shot player C, and everyone sees now that player A was lying - even if it were possible for there to be two Vigilantes (which I find very unlikely) everyone would know that player A is Mafia pretending to be Vigilante.
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On April 15 2012 01:43 Acrofales wrote:
/facepalm. How does anybody know that player B is telling the truth and player A is lying? How is this any less wifomy than having unclaimed kills? Does a true roleclaim come with a message from god that assures us it is gospel truth? Also, 2 vigis doesn't seem farfetched. The distribution of blue roles is equally wifomy. We may not have a medic, so have a second vig to make up for it? Or anything like that? Don't even start down that road, wifom is pointless.
Hmm, okay, it's indeed quite a bit of WIFOM. I must wonder though, why did SLJ claim his Vigi shot in GOT if it's such a bad idea? Here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3 At the time it seemed very reasonable for me, but when you put it like you just did, it doesn't seem all that wise. Did SLJ just make a bad play or what?
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On April 15 2012 02:51 yomi wrote:
How am I lurking for 40 hours? This is not close to a factual statement. What about hiropro? He posted WAY less than me yet you don’t seem to care about him at all.
You didn't really post anything relevant (or much of anything) until the moment where Willz started defending himself. HiroPro has also been lurking, but he hasn't been as useless as you have been so far. I don't still have a town read on HiroPro at all, and he might actually be another good Vigi shot. If you can convince the Vigilante to shoot him, go ahead and try it. Dittert might also be an okayish target, but I'm not as sure about him as you are.
On April 15 2012 02:51 yomi wrote:
I have a few reads and am now going to devote my energy to looking into them further instead of being bullied by you.
The best you can do to stop me from "bullying you" is exactly that: telling about your reads (other than Dittert) and post something useful about them. If you were to flip town right now, you wouldn't really have anything solid (other than your suggestion about Dittert playing dumb purposefully) to examine for tomorrow. Do you think HiroPro might be Mafia? What about imallinson? I'm really hoping you bring something new to the table now. It would be horrible if the Vigi shot you now and A) you flipped town, thus partly wasting the shot B) you would have almost nothing useful in your filter for us.
Of course I can't command the Vigilante to do whatever I want, so your efforts should go to convincing him (and the town in general) rather than just me. The best way to do that is not only reacting to my accusations, but actually playing in a pro-town manner.
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On April 15 2012 03:10 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: looking over the thread I was reminded of the connection you made between Willz and Yomi. I am not seeing it. Mind explaining it?
I'm actually more suspicious of him because of his lurking and his WIFOM/desperate "defence" after I made my case, but the original reason I wanted to lynch him was partly that speculation.
I'll try to explain this again. It's not an argument based on hard facts, but rather the weird feeling I got from his case against Dittert earlier.
On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
Dittert is a ridiculous player that puts words in people’s mouths and posts a lot of nonsensical and stupid things. A lot of people had him pegged as noob town and I almost swung over to that belief but I just don’t buy it anymore. I thought he was mafia before and I still think he is. I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.
If yomi were town, I have the feeling he would have been at least a bit more confident with that statement. I can't say it's a definite Mafia slip, but I just get a strong feeling something is off with that. If I saw someone getting bandwagoned whom I thought was town (for example you, Acrofales), I wouldn't just say something like "and I think you guys need to reconsider Acrofales" and then disappear from the thread, leaving you to be lynched freely. I would clearly state why you shouldn't be lynched and push for a better lynch. Of course if I was Mafia, then I would just laugh in the shadows and leave you to be lynched freely while saying just something like "this vote is a mistake, you'll all regret this tomorrow". It would make me look good for the next day, but it would do absolutely nothing to actually save you from the lynch. To me, it looks like this was exactly what yomi did there.
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On April 15 2012 03:44 ArcticFox wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case. The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play. Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips.
Do you think yomi is the best Vigi shot btw? And what do you think about the possibility of the Vigilante to claim his shot at the deadline?
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On April 15 2012 07:19 willz22912 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 01:32 Xatalos wrote:On April 14 2012 23:51 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case.
I want you to explain this part right now. Your logic here is so horrible I can't even decide what to think about it. 1) If you are town, why do you want to die so badly? You can't be 100% certain I am town or 100% certain yomi is Mafia, but you CAN be 100% certain of your own alignment. So, if you actually are town and want to achieve a town victory, why would you ever want to kill the only 100% confirmed town player (yourself)? True, it would give us some new information, but killing yomi would give us equally much information. Even if you're not confident that yomi is Mafia, at the very least he is infinitely more likely to be Mafia than yourself (if you are town yourself). 2) You seem pretty hesitant about killing yomi, yet you want to get yourself killed so that you can "help my case against yomi". I don't see any kind of logic here. Besides, you flipping town wouldn't help my case against yomi especially greatly. It wouldn't make any sense for you two to be Mafia & Mafia anyway (why would yomi casually mention you are town in that case?). Your town flip wouldn't make me significantly more suspicious of yomi than I already am, and then we would have wasted our only Vigi shot on a townie who wants to get himself killed. If you are town, you are 100% confident in your own innocence, so there is zero reason to call for a Vigi shot on yourself. Overall, I don't think you are Mafia based on this, just a townie with a death wish and horrible logic. At least I can't imagine any situation where Mafia would want to get Vigi shot. My logic is that I think your case against Yomi is bad, and you have only tunneled him without looking at other people. He may be your top scum read but if you can't get a consensus from the rest of the town your read has no weight. If you really want to tunnel Yomi and continue to do so, your case relies on the fact that Yomi did not defend me sufficiently as a fellow town enough. Both myself and Yomi changed our votes in order to save ourselves, both town or Mafia would make this move. We both know for sure that our self (as in Yomi knows Yomi is town, I know I am town) so 100% read is better than a could be wrong on the other person. I think Yomi is more town than you think, but I was still willing to switch my vote to him to save myself because I know I am town. You can't use this reasoning to explain whether or not he is Mafia. Regarding my death wish, do you not see that Dittert isn't convinced of my innocence, ArcticFox still has his suspicions, and Acrofales posted the strong case against me in the first place? Thats 3/11 players left who have no inclination to believe in my towniness, meaning I have little to no credibility as town to push a Mafia even if I do find one and make a case. At best the other players see me as neutral, but probably most of them still have a scummy read to me. It would waste another day's time lynching me, the better option would be to vig shot me, even though I know I am town, because a dead townie in my position is better than a scummy looking town alive. I've stated this before when referring to Dittert, a bad town is worth sacrificing rather than keeping him alive. Case in point: BroodKingEXE, I for one don't miss him, even though he was a town, because he pretty much screwed us D1 with getting any information from either Yomi or myself's lynch. None of his filter contains any useful information, and it's his own fault he got himself lynched when he could have easily stayed silent. I don't think many people would miss me as well if I was suddenly killed by Mafia or vig shotted, so that's my logic.
I can kind of see your logic, but... Even though you have the baggage of suspicions from earlier, you shouldn't just give up and die like that. If you haven't noticed, there are a lot of players under general suspicion, not just you. You're not necessarily even in the top3 of suspicions at the moment...? You should keep trying and improve your reputation. Also, remember that the credibility of your Mafia reads aren't that severely diminished by your own suspiciousness. If you make a really strong case against someone, I doubt people would hesitate joining you just because you aren't the best town read at the moment. People don't really seem to think I am Mafia, but that doesn't mean I would be blindly followed either. A strong case is a strong case regardless of the one who made it, and a weak case is a weak case regardless of the one who made it.
I have indeed tunneled on yomi lately, but that's because I haven't gotten a stronger Mafia read than him in a while. Instead I have gotten a lot of town reads from players I have previously found suspicious (vonKlaust, ArcticFox), and slight Mafia reads from players like HiroPro, imallinson and Dittert. I realize it's pretty useless to say this now without much evidence, but there isn't much time left and there is a chance I do get shot now after all. However, I'll say some things briefly: HiroPro has been lurking very hard and pretty much only followed the general opinion after his pressure vote on me. imallinson has answered calmly and quite well to accusations against him, but still I see his play as pretty cautious and reactionary (reactionary play being usually a Mafia trait). Dittert's playstyle has changed from "I'm a noob, please don't lynch me" to "you're all idiots, you should listen to what I say" pretty awkwardly. I don't still see Dittert as suspicious as yomi says, but there's a higher chance for him being Mafia than average (25% like someone mentioned earlier, or higher now that BroodKing is dead).
The night actions are about to set in now so I'll just leave this post as it is and wait for what happens.
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On April 15 2012 07:53 Acrofales wrote:
Overeager townie or scum? I am unsure, but keep an eye on him. When the lurkers are unlurked or shot, he had better have improved his posts, or I'm going after him.
One thing I would like to mention fast is that I just generally like to write a lot. If you look at my Mafia chat filter in GOT (sorry about meta again...), you can see that I flooded it with pretty much anything on my mind at the given moment: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/4pAsUq7W6cyf I'd say my current posting style is very similar to how I posted in the Mafia chat previously. Although that could also be a purposeful play, I don't think it would be a good Mafia strategy to post freely in the thread and risk countless possible Mafia slips. Just pointing this out, I don't claim it's a solid evidence of anything.
I really regret that we never got to lynch yomi on Day 1, and I feel like we are going to do the same mistake with Dittert we did earlier with BroodKing. If we just all vote for Dittert and he flips town, it's a complete victory for Mafia (no information, no Mafia lynch, nothing). Dittert martyring like that could be just bad town play or careful Mafia play (not giving any additional information to us). Still, this is the same situation as with BroodKing: a town flip from the lynch would put us so much behind in information that the Mafia would be likely victorious in the end.
In any case, I wouldn't rate Dittert's suspiciousness as much above average right now, and lynching him gives us no information in case of a town flip (an extremely bad situation) or little to no information in case of a Mafia flip (although him being Mafia would certainly make up for the lack of information). Still, I'd say lynching yomi would be the better option right now, since I rate his suspiciousness as higher than Dittert and his flip would give us way more information. Win-win, right (unless yomi is town and Dittert is Mafia, which is still possible, although I'm leaning more on Dittert being a totally useless townie)? Dittert isn't really going to be missed regardless of his flip, but I'd prefer lynching yomi for both the better chance of lynching a Mafia and especially the potential for much more useful information from his flip (compared to lynching Dittert).
##Vote: yomi
On April 15 2012 08:09 imallinson wrote:
I second Acrofales's vote. Yomi to some degree yesterday, me, ArcticFox and Acrofales all made cases against him and he hasn't responded yet. I'm willing to hear him out but for now he is definitely my top scum read. I'm still suspicious of both yomi and Willz but I am willing to leave them for the moment as Dittert makes me even more suspicious.
I have to mention this post. I'm a bit confused about what you're trying to say here, but I take it yomi is your best Mafia read... Yet you're willing to follow Acrofales unquestioningly and abandon both yomi and Willz for today? I'm not sure what to make of this, but at least it isn't a good or reasonable play by you.
I'm going to sleep pretty soon, so good night and think seriously about this post!
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On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote:The Blue ShiftShow nested quote +On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote:
I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB.
Discussion is good. Idle chat is not.
As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. + Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 Dittert wrote:
Not RNG lynch... RNG proposed lynch. I was trying to gauge people's reactions to things. If we RNG and hit scum, surely at least 2 people will jump up to defend that person or risk losing one of their own. If no one really cares about killing that person, they're probably town. Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 02:51 Xatalos wrote:
Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing. In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler +On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote:
I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions:
Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before)
Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight)
Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer
Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment
If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote:
Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote:
I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote:
I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me).
I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that.
Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction FactorWhen you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote:
People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. I'm pretty sure at least 1-2 of these players are Mafia. If you four want to clear yourselves in my eyes, something major needs to happen. I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. I also want to see his response, though, but I don't know what would convince me otherwise at this point (I guess an EVEN stronger Mafia read on someone else, which isn't an easy feat to achieve!). Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote:
Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him. Still, he's not the best lynch target for now. I say ArcticFox and Dittert are our best Mafia reads at the moment. Anyone else want to vote? ##Vote: Xatalos
Alright... I can't say your case doesn't have some merit, but I have to disagree with some points. Also, I'm glad you actually made a thought-out case against me (compared to the lackluster case you made earlier).
1) I was certainly somewhat over-analyzing blue/policy talk in the beginning (for partly meta reasons), but you have to consider that there wasn't much else suspicious going on at that point. It was the MOST suspicious thing I saw happening at the time, so although talking about policy lynching or blue roles early on Day 1 isn't the best Mafia tell, it was something to start with and possibly force Mafia slips (either from the target, from the people jumping on the bandwagon or from the people defending the target). I may have used some excessively strong words against ArcticFox for example, but pressure isn't really pressure if I just vaguely say "you might be a bit suspicious" or something, right? If I had to lynch at that exact moment, I would have lynched ArcticFox because nothing more suspicious had been said yet (in my opinion), but my opinion on him started to slowly shift and was pretty much a townie read during the night.
2) Speculating about blue powers may not be nearly as useful as talking about Mafia reads (and it would certainly be something easy for Mafia to talk about), but I did that for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to get yomi Vigi shot to kill my strongest Mafia read right away and to resolve the doubt surrounding the events of Day 1. B) I wanted to ensure both I and Acrofales would live to see Day 2: I don't know if there is both a Jailer and a Doctor, but I figured Mafia wouldn't dare to shoot either me or Acrofales after I made that open suggestion. The Jailer and/or Doctor could then freely heal whoever they liked, and I and Acrofales would be most likely protected by the sheer fear of the Mafia to prevent wasting their valuable KP. The longer the game goes on, the better for town, so not getting to kill anyone is a hard blow for Mafia (even the risk of it would make them think twice before shooting me or Acrofales).
3) My play has been quite "all over the place" and a bit spammy, and I can try to post less and with more certainty, but I don't feel like it's a good idea to just wait until there is a very strong case able to be made. If we just wait in silence while nobody says matters of relevance, or anything, waiting for a really strong suspicion before saying anything... Mafia could just play passive and do nothing noticeable. There even was something like this in a guide: "Polite and careful play is the downfall of many town teams." The same can be said for spam, of course, and maybe I have been a bit too much on the side of aggression and spam. But I still feel like it's better than to wait in silence and only post when you have a very solid case against someone (where would that case be made from, if everyone just talked politely and never started accusing each other?).
I have also one other thing to say. I know this might seem weird, but I came up with a theory about why Willz and yomi could both well be town. I was most suspicious of yomi as I went to sleep, but as I was waking up I came up with a theory I feel could potentially make a lot of sense. I don't want to say it out loud yet, though (I have a good reason, but if there is a lot of demand, I can do it... although I don't know if it's a wise move right now). Considering the chance yomi is town, I'm not absolutely sure who I would want to push for now. Dittert has definitely been useless, but IF he flips town, we are in a pretty bad spot (his town flip would reveal pretty much nothing new, and only his Mafia flip would be useful for us). So this is a play I would call as "high risk, high reward". On the other hand, I wouldn't definitely want to have someone like Dittert with me in a lategame situation of 3 town & 2 Mafia, for example. So his lynch isn't a total waste in any case, although it would only give new information in case he flipped Mafia. Since I don't have a very strong Mafia read at the moment, I might as well also vote for Dittert and hope for the best....
##Vote: Dittert
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Argh, another take...
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert
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trumpetarn/Funcmode, you have posted basically nothing for 3 days (trumpetarn), and nothing yet as Funcmode (and we're already on the latter half of this day). Maybe you're preparing a really big post and going through everyone's filters, but you should at least post something for today... Hardcore lurking isn't only a Mafia trait, but at the very least it's not pro-town in any way. I know I can't really blame you (Funcmode) for trumpetarn's lurking, but you haven't yet posted anything either, although you entered the game like 13 hours ago? I want to hear your top Mafia reads and overall observations on what has happened so far.
I can't really count yomi as a lurker anymore, since he has posted a lot during the end of day 1 and night 1. HiroPro has also become a bit more active. That leaves only Dittert and Funcmode as real lurkers. I have pretty much lost my hope on Dittert at this point, but Funcmode, you should step up now.
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I just got home, and I'm planning to make a similar probability/analysis post as KharadBanar and Acrofales made earlier. However, there is one post from yomi that confuses me to no end:
On April 15 2012 07:34 yomi wrote:
i meant turtle as in heal yourself
Here you basically claim you are a Doctor. At first I thought there was no reasoning for a non-Doctor townie to ever say this, so you had to be Mafia (75%) or Doctor (25%). This made me even more suspicious of you, since you had a 75% statistical chance of being Mafia AND I don't think a Doctor would have roleclaimed like that in any case. He would have just healed himself quietly and avoided revealing his role.
Then the night actions happened and you were actually alive after that. I'm pretty sure Mafia shot ArcticFox, which meant the Vigi saved his shot or shot someone (likely you) and wasted his shot. Now I thought you might be the Doctor after all.
Then I got confirmation from GreYMisT: Doctor can't heal himself. This means you were lying with your post, which doesn't make you look good. At first I thought you were Mafia because of this, but then I thought that maybe you were just a scared townie trying to make the Vigi not shoot you by pretending the shot would be wasted.
I'm honestly in total confusion about your alignment right now. I doubt you are the real Doctor, since then you wouldn't roleclaim like this, but you're probably a lying non-Doctor (lying would be natural for Mafia, but perhaps also for a scared townie). I'm pretty confident I can make a good town/Mafia post otherwise, but I just can't figure you out right now.
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On April 16 2012 04:05 KharadBanar wrote:
When he said "I might just turtle up tonight" he is meaning this as in "If I were you...". The whole thing is meant as an advice to our blue roles, not as claiming what he did that night.
You also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job.
Looking closer at that post, you could be right. Here is the post:
On April 15 2012 07:28 yomi wrote:
as for who to hit with saves this is way too wifom. go for people you are most confident are town? save me from an erroneous vig (i had to try)? the choice is yours and yours alone
remember the only person you are 100% sure of is yourself so I might just turtle up tonight.
If he means just generally "it's best to heal yourself since you are the only confirmed townie for yourself" then I can accept it. He might also just be mistaken about the fact that you can't heal yourself to begin with... That's not inevitably a lie, since I wasn't sure about that even myself. However, the source of my confusion comes from him using "you" and then "I" in the same sentence. When I looked at that post I thought he meant "you can only be sure of your own innocence, so I'm going to heal myself tonight".
If he was just giving (bad) advice, I feel like a total idiot. I have wasted a lot of time considering this post even though it doesn't necessarily mean anything... Sigh. I'll just ignore that post then, at least for now, and make my town/Mafia post next without considering it at all.
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I'm also sad my credibility has dropped so much because of my stupid mistakes and tunneling, but I hope my next post will be valued at least to some extent, even so.
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Okay, I'm not as good with formatting (or logic, I guess..) as KharadBanar and Acrofales, but I'll try doing a similar overview analysis based on my own thoughts.
First of all, we have two confirmed townies: ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE. I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia.
I also know I am town myself. I'm not sure if I should take it into account in my probabilities, but since KharadBanar did so, I'm going to do the same. I would also say that Acrofales, KharadBanar and vonKlaust have been overall so informative, logical and pro-town in their posting, that their chances of being Mafia are pretty close to zero (in my mind). Considering I'm completely unwilling to lynch any of them right now, I'm going to make their chances of being Mafia 0% to make this a bit simpler.
What do we have left now? Only 6 players, of which 3 are certainly Mafia. So, even if there would be a random lynch among these 6 players, it would mean a 50% chance of hitting a Mafia. After hitting one Mafia, it would become infinitely easier to find out the remaining Mafia. The real problem is: among these 6 players, everyone is at least somewhat suspicious. I would say there is a reasonable chance for any of these players being Mafia, although some do rise above the others. The average chance (without any other modifiers) to hit a Mafia in this group is 50%, which isn't too bad already. 1/6 is 17%, so I'm going to take that as the starting point and decrease or increase this percentage based on my own thoughts:
- Willz: 10% (has made some suspicious moves, but has almost always defended himself in a very pro-town manner by tackling the issues straight at their core and not resorting to WIFOM, distraction, OMGUS or further suspicious moves - he has also contributed to the thread in an informative and logical fashion)
- imallinson: 15% (has been mostly flying under the radar, not bringing himself to the forefront unless forced to, and not contributing more than absolutely necessary to continue flying under the radar)
- Funcmode: 17% (it's very hard to say anything about him, since he has an empty filter so far - definitely anti-town play, but not necessarily Mafia play)
- HiroPro: 18% (has been somewhat lurking and flying under the radar for the whole game, posting very cautiously and warily when he posts at all - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox)
- yomi: 20% (started off the game with heavy lurking, finally started to post at the conclusion of Day 1 as he was in danger of being lynched, continued to post in Night 1 as he was in danger of being Vigi shot, never really contributed unless forced to, although I find his latest post about Dittert & HiroPro as a Mafia team as interesting and a bit redeeming for him - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox)
- Dittert: 20% (was useless/anti-town during the whole Day 1, went lurking for the conclusion of the Day 1 lynch, came back after it to accuse everyone who voted for BroodKingEXE - and claimed town credibility for not voting for BroodKingEXE himself, then stopped his already non-existent contribution and martyred himself without even trying to get himself cleared of the lynch - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox)
All in all, I think it's essential to lynch either Dittert, yomi or HiroPro for today. Earlier I thought Dittert's town flip would be the ultimate bad situation, but actually even that would provide some information. I'll also look a bit at the connections between Dittert, yomi and HiroPro:
- Dittert flips Mafia: makes yomi less suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious
- Dittert flips town: makes yomi more suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious
- yomi flips Mafia: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious
- yomi flips town: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious
- HiroPro flips Mafia: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes yomi less suspicious
- HiroPro flips town: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes yomi more suspicious
So, all of these players have a high chance of being Mafia, and lynching any of them would be at least somehow useful even in the case of a town flip.
Since the vote is almost tied between me and Dittert at the moment, I'm definitely going to keep my vote on Dittert for the time being. In case he flips Mafia, I'm willing to vote for HiroPro instead of yomi next. In case he flips town, I think I'm going to vote for yomi again.
I feel quite stupid for misunderstanding yomi's post so completely, but I'll try to be more observant, calm and logical in the future. If that moment of my stupidity leads to my lynch and thus an easy path to victory for Mafia, I'll be kicking myself in the head on the observer chat along with BroodKingEXE...
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EPT
