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Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 16:29 GMT
#354
I'll just quote the post I made about it:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote:
Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.

+ Show Spoiler +
On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:
/confirm

I strongly disagree with people saying this discussion has been "idle chat" or "pointless discussion". There's only so much you can do 7 hours into the game, but what I've got from these posts has been VERY useful: in fact, after reading all the posts in one go, I'm already ready to cast a vote (not just a fake pressure like KharadBanar).

The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox. Here is what I got from his filter so far:

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote:
Let's not waste Day 1. Too many times I've seen people say it's not important. We can find out plenty as long as everyone posts. Please be active so we don't waste our first lynch on a bored townie. The sooner everyone posts, the sooner we can get to the real scumhunting.


On the surface this looks like friendly advice to fellow townies, but this is EXACTLY the kind of posting I did on A Game of Thrones Mafia as a Mafia Framer. His attitude seems like he wants to appear useful, but he doesn't really say anything useful - the opposite of actual townies who want to be useful, but don't care as much about their appearance. The overall feel I get from this post is "please don't lynch me, I'm being useful!"

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote:
I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB.

Discussion is good. Idle chat is not.

As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well.


First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything.

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote:
On April 12 2012 09:16 Dittert wrote:
Not RNG lynch... RNG proposed lynch. I was trying to gauge people's reactions to things. If we RNG and hit scum, surely at least 2 people will jump up to defend that person or risk losing one of their own. If no one really cares about killing that person, they're probably town.

Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it.

You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions?


There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... And if you think Dittert is Mafia, why not vote for him or even put any real pressure on him? It looks like you just want to fake pressure an obvious target (a suspiciously acting townie) or put some distance between yourself and a fellow Mafia (if he gets lynched, you can claim you "pushed for his lynch" all along).

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote:
On April 12 2012 10:17 HiroPro wrote:
LaL seems to be a standard play. I'm all for lynching liars above all else. It sets a good tone that we won't allow scum to get away with it either.


What do you mean by this? You say that lynching lying townies scares scum? I don't follow.


I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start if we don't have any solid scumreads by the end of Day 1.

So in short -- more people should post so we have more information to go on and can avoid a policy lynch.


You look like you want to make a policy lynch, since you keep talking about policies, but still try to appear as if you "want" to lynch a Mafia player (if something too obvious comes along and you have to bus your teammate).

I got a pretty solid Mafia read already in just a matter of hours, so this discussion is definitely not "useless"...

##Vote: ArcticFox

Other people I'm going to keep a close watch on: Dittert, yomi. Neither have contributed to the thread, but still tried to appear "active" enough to avoid being lynched. yomi even had a strange OMGUS reaction to BroodKingEXE after being suspected, without ANYTHING to back up his counter-suspicion. Also, this:

Show nested quote +
On April 12 2012 09:49 Dittert wrote:
I feel it's okay if I have a terrible idea, with this being my first game of mafia in my whole life, and all...


Exactly the same kind of tactic I employed in A Game of Thrones Mafia... You want to apologize for your mistakes and noobish play (why would a townie ever need the urge to make a public apology?!) to make people think of you as a noob townie. I can feel the fear and hesitation pouring from this post.

I would also want to hear your opinion, Acrofales. You were VERY active and talkative in A Game of Thrones Mafia, but so far you have been inactive. What do you think about my case on ArcticFox? Do you have your own Mafia reads that I might have missed?


Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.


Some people have been critical towards Dittert and his RNG-talk. To me he comes across more as a nervous newbie(no offence, I'm pretty much a nervous newbie myself!) than scum. I think he's sincere about the claim that he was actually after sparking discussion rather than actually pushing for RNGing.


My explanation is simply: I thought it carried some truth, so I wrote "I think it carries some truth".
Looking back, I do agree that it's pretty much too vague to actually be a usefull post. I just wrote what I was thinking. Maybe I should have kept those thoughts to myself since I really didn't add anything.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 16:29 GMT
#355
Above post was aimed @Xatalos.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 17:07 GMT
#362
Oh, lol, I completely forgot to answer that part.

Here goes.

I didn't say, at any point, that I had a town read on imallinson... I just said my suspicions of him "dropped a bit" after he made some valid additional points about ArcticFox and voted for him. I didn't think Mafia would so eagerly jump on the first possibility of a bandwagon - from what I've seen, Mafia usually wait until lynching someone gathers strong enough support and then blend in with the mass of voters. I'm not saying Mafia have to play passive and/or leave the initiative for town, but imallinson's fast agreement with my vote didn't seem very Mafia-like to me (too reckless and careless - generally Mafia are cautious and avoid the spotlight).


Your suspicions dropped a bit because he provided evidence for a lynch rather than just wait and blindly bandwagon. Of course mafia would want to provide evidence for lynches to act more town. If they see a chance to put the spotlight on some townie, it would make sense for the mafia to try to frame that person.
Basically there is two strategies as town:
1. Try to blend in
2. Try to establish your innocense
Ofcourse these can be combined, but you seem to take for granted that Imallinson would go for blending in. It's just as likely that he would want to frame ArticFox if he thinks he can get away with it.
The fact that Imallinson provided evidence to your case says nothing about his alignment. It makes just as much sense for a scum trying to lynch a townie to provide evidence as it does for a townie trying to lynch a mafia members.
To me, it just feels like what Imallinson wrote shouldn't have been enough to explicilty state that your suspicions of him dropping.

You didn't adress the point about trying to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. I'm curious on your thoughts about that.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 17:07 GMT
#363
Once again @ Xatalos. I've gotta start quoting better.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 17:21 GMT
#366
Ok, I can't write anything very elaborate right now, but @Willz


Then take a look at the part I highlighted in red, here he starts arguing against transparency and having town not release scumlists. How is that not anti-town behavior? Releasing scumlists helps us hunt scum, it's as simple as that, information not shared is information not known. Very scummy in my mind.


Then why have you acted like you wanted to follow his advice? You refused to share your suspicions because you "wanted to collect more evidence". Please give us an explanation about this behaviour. It's very inconcistant with your philosophy of town transperancy.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 18:58 GMT
#398
How long until lynching time?

Right now I'm really unsure about all this. I think Willz is holding up pretty good and he seems sincere. I must reread Willz' case on Brood, Willz defence and Broods defence and try to formulate my thoughts. I'm semi-bizzi tonight, so I need to know how much time I've got.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 19:53 GMT
#411
Alright, so here's what I am thinking.

I do think that Willz have been posting pro-towny since the accusations of him. This makes a part of me want to unvote him, but to me it's not enough to compensate for his earlier hipocracy. His defence FEELS sincere but he have actually been pretty sneaky up until now, and the fact that he has changed his play to more pro town after his accusations(and the following votes) does not really tick his meter in any direction. This kind of behaviour could just as likely be mafia trying to slither out of a lynch as it is town. I'm going to stick with my vote on Willz for now.

But at the same time, some parts of his case against Brood makes sense, and if Willz gets lynched and flips town, I'm gonna dig into Brood.

Also, if there is a Vig in this game, please shoot Hiro. Maybe not tonight, but do it tomorrow night if he haven't stepped up his game severely. He has been contributing nothing, been actively lurking, and we have pretty much nothing to go on when it comes to him.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 19:56 GMT
#413
EBOWOWBOP:

Some of the defence from Willz I really don't like. Martyr stuff like voting for himself and writing stuff like:

You may be right about Yomi, but I feel it's most beneficial for town at this point to confirm my lynch and get the information from my flip to decide about others.


Obviously it is not good for town to lynch a townie(which you are claiming that you are). I can understand if you're frustated but stuff like this isn't making anything better. It's just bad reasoning and adds to the confusion.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 20:02 GMT
#416
@Xatalos
I will take a look at Yomi's filter. He has kind of gone under my radar so far.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 20:31 GMT
#422
Alright, so yes Yomi's case on Dittert is wierd. The timing is sooooo bad, and I don't think the case is very good either.
But to me Yomi falls into the same category as Dittert. I think he is just a noob town who doesn't really know what he is doing. About his famous comment about being the only one to write anything concrete for example. I simply can't believe he tried to lie about this concidering how his filter looked like at the time. To me it looks like he thinks he was contributing when he wrote:

Hi I just got back from lifting.

I can't think of a more pointless discussion than the one we are having now. It is being led by Broodking, Kharadbanar, and Dittert. I have the most confidence in willz and to a slightly lesser extent arctic.

I'm not sure what we SHOULD be discussing since no investigation abilities have gone out yet, but I doubt this is it. Getting people to talk just for the sake of it is great but my fear is that this discussion will bleed into day 2 when we will have some actual information.


I simply can't imagine he is trying to trick us that this is a good post, while not believing it himself. It would just be so amazingly suicidal. Also, on the point of him writing that he trust Willz, he has actually done that twice before throughout the thread, pretty early in the game. He never stated that he changed his mind about this. Not only just now when Willz seems to get lynched.
I must say that I am not at all as confident in your analysis as you are. Why do you think that Yomi and Willz can't both be scum?

At this point, If you've got nothing more on Yomi, I do not feel confident changing my vote to him.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:04 GMT
#438
@Xatalos
Well, you're right about that it's likely that both are not scum. However I'm not at all confortable with saying that this fact makes it pretty sure that they both aren't town. Just look at the way Yomi has been posting. He just seem to post whatever comes into mind without really explain it. But on the other hand this isn't very pro town, and since Trumpetarn and HiroPro are pretty likely to abstain from voting, you could be right that he is our best bet after Willz. Looking back he has actually been pretty negative for the town so far. Still, I'm not convinced he is mafia.

The thing is that everyone seems to have forgot why we put Willz here in the first place. Sure, he has been posting more pro-town now, but as I wrote earlier, this would also be expected from a mafia member. It doesn't convince me fully. And on top of that he wrote a bunch of martyrish stuff which were just wierd.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:10 GMT
#440
What the hell, Yomi isn't making this easy for me. He has such a bad attitude.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:21 GMT
#442
Allright, I've been rereading, and I'm willing to give Willz another chance. His pressence in the thread has been way more positive than Yomi's. Allthough, I am not going to take any bullshit from Willz if he survives this. I will demand full transparancy and whenever he asks anyone to do anything I'm gonna make sure hes doing it himself.

##Unvote
##Vote: Yomi


I still don't like your reasoning btw Xatalos. So far I think your cases have been pretty bad and you have to step up your analysis.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:27 GMT
#445
That is pretty much what I am thinking too. Yomi is gonna keep stiring chaos and I think we're gonna end up having to lynch or vig him anyway. Willz on the other hand has showed that he can actually be a force of good.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:32 GMT
#448
An updated vote count would be super!
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:39 GMT
#452
Wait wait wait wait WHAT?

On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:
I think willz is more likely scum.

##Unvote
##Vote: Yomi

None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:40 GMT
#455
I'm willing to change my vote to Brood now if we get a concencus. Not only does he once again jump into a bandwagon, he also votes AGAINST what he believe would be good for town.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 21:53 GMT
#468
##Unvote
##Vote: BroodKingExe
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 22:05 GMT
#476
What I do think we can conclude though is that if Brood is mafia, then Willz is pretty much confirmed town.
None.
vonKlaust
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden158 Posts
April 13 2012 22:06 GMT
#478
Where is Willz btw? Did he give up?
None.
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