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On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:My case against Dittert It all starts with this bizarre proposal Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 08:58 Dittert wrote:
What if we all agree to a rng lynch... at least proposing someone to lynch via rng. Then we have something to take a stance on. Show nested quote + , I saw someone suggest a seemingly "random" lynch in a couple other games, and in all of those cases the person doing the suggesting ended up getting lynched and being a townie. This is sort of humorous but I think it is a leveling play. I think he saw a strategy that DIDN’T work in other games, and wanted to employ it here. Believing it would again not work. Now Dittert starts really posting and seems like a noob but really is just playing dumb. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote:On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote:
Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say It doesn’t scream scum because he, like many others, is pointing out that a bad strategy is bad. Why does Dittert keep pushing us to employ bizarre tactics? Because if people use their intuition they will correctly land on him as a mafia player. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote:Second, we have this gem: On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. He is saying that all lynches have risk but lynching you is less risky as our worst case scenario is lynching a bad player. Him accusing willz who I am still the most confident in only raises my suspicion further. Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote:
Note how even though he lists the 1/2/3 mafia as AF/me/hiropro, he doesn't vote for #1, he votes for me.
Derp? I don’t know how you read my post as implying an order of suspicion. Playing dumb again and trying to redirect. Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 10:49 Dittert wrote:
Well, I admitted that part was a little weak. I can change my read if you want, since I now think someone else is definitely town, but I won't say who or why for fear of endangering his life.
The mafia already know who their teammates are and you know this. There are no neutrals. Playing dumb to get out of an accusation. Typical dittert. Contrast these statements: Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 22:54 Dittert wrote:
2. Though he has participated a lot, he has not really accused anyone of anything (with a nod to the token aggression towards iamallinson). I think he's waiting until the very end to make any concrete statement so he can judge what stance will be most beneficial to scum.
Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 01:00 Dittert wrote:
You claim to be the first person in the thread to attack me, but willz and Arctic attacked me first. Willz is ONE OF the first to make a suspicious list. Unfortunately I’m on it, but still. Dittert is a ridiculous player that puts words in people’s mouths and posts a lot of nonsensical and stupid things. A lot of people had him pegged as noob town and I almost swung over to that belief but I just don’t buy it anymore. I thought he was mafia before and I still think he is. I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.
I wasn't sure about voting for yomi over Willz before this post, but now I am. There are several things about yomi that make me very suspicious of him:
A) He has been lurking extremely hard and contributing nothing until this moment. Right as Willz starts defending himself, yomi suddenly appears and makes a case against Dittert to improve his filter while avoiding any real attention with this Willz debate going on. Is this a coincidence? It MIGHT be, but I'm leaning on this being a purposeful play. Yesterday he said he would start contributing for real today, but all I see is this one post and then he's already going away until deadline.
B) yomi doesn't try to defend Willz or sway the vote away from him, but he says some empty one-liners like "if I were you I'd reconsider lynching Willz", "I have the most confidence in Willz as town", stuff like that. To me, this looks like pure Mafia play. He knows Willz is town, so he leaves these remarks on his post history to look better later on. When Willz inevitably flips town, he can be "safe" tomorrow by claiming he knew Willz was innocent all along and vote for somebody who voted for Willz. Easy offence and defence in one tactic!
C) His case on Dittert is pretty lackluster and, in my opinion, only a cover for avoiding attention for tomorrow. Dittert has been talked about to death already and yomi's case against him doesn't really bring anything new to the table. Still, he's a safe target for his noobie errors earlier and rather stubborn tunneling on Willz (which is not necessarily a Mafia tell IMO, because Mafia don't want to be the figureheads of mislynches). I think most share the opinion that Dittert is a noob townie who doesn't quite realize what he's doing. Focusing on him now isn't very productive in my eyes, especially since yomi merely repeats earlier accusations against him (plus some stuff about Willz's innocence only to improve his own credibility for tomorrow).
I'm pretty confident about yomi being Mafia - reconsider voting for him after reading this post, Willz. If you voted for him, it would be 3 for yomi and 4 for you. I still see it as somehow possible to lynch yomi instead of you and I think it's the better solution. Lynching you isn't too bad either, since you had some pretty suspicious stuff (or if you flip town, your words will be noted tomorrow with more importance and we can study this bandwagon more closely) but I'm much more confident in lynching yomi than you right now.
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Ah, damn it. Here I go:
##Unvote
##Vote: yomi
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On April 14 2012 04:22 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote:
@ Xatalos
You may be right about Yomi, but I feel it's most beneficial for town at this point to confirm my lynch and get the information from my flip to decide about others.
If you are right, then when I flip green, your case on Yomi is stronger because of it. If you leave me alive and we lynch Yomi instead and he flips green as well (which I still think is possible), then you have no choice but to lynch me next and then we have 2 mis-lynches in a row.
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point. You say you think Yomi is town, Yomi has stated he thinks you're town, but when you're lynched and flip green, the case for Yomi being scum is stronger? Why? And if so, this is a good thing how exactly? Your play just keeps getting stranger, dude. This logic is even worse than what we've seen so far. It's sounding more and more desperate. What about Yomi's filter makes you read him as noob instead of scum? His case vs. Dittert is awful, and the rest of the posting is angry and nonsensical. Is there anyone beside Brood and the lurker (Trumpet) who you can build a solid case against for lynching? I'm really close to ignoring your posts until the lynch to be sure. It seems like scum trying to keep attention on himself so we don't notice everything else going on. Why no reaction to Acrofales stirring up a shitstorm around you then disappearing before the vote with an "I can't read the thread or change my vote, I'm busy, but I like willz case." excuse? Sure he reads town to most everyone, but you HAVE to call him out on that, right? You were reading town to most everyone until last night too.
Did you read my post, ArcticFox? Willz hasn't made a case against him, but I have. He just responded to my case there... And he means that if he gets mislynched and flips town, my case is stronger, because my case against yomi depends on Willz actually being town. At this point, I'm not very confident in Willz being Mafia, since his latest posts have been very insightful and relevant. I would rate his current play as very pro-town. yomi's play I would rate as very anti-town.
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On April 14 2012 04:31 willz22912 wrote:
@ ArcticFox
Read Xatalos' argument, it makes sense. If yomi was Mafia and he knew I was the likely lynch target, and he knows I'm really town, he can post that in his defense freely without giving too much away, it gains him credibility. The only reason he would post that without any other support is if he had inside knowledge
I think Yomi is newbie because he's tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert is tunneling me. Do you think Dittert is Mafia for posting the original case against me and trying to lynch me? How is this any different from Yomi against Dittert? They're both newb towns tunneling everyone.
I read through Acrofale's case on me and I see the logic in it because I'm reading an unbiased version of my accounts from a different perspective. I cannot argue against it, it makes sense, I suppose he could be Mafia making an easy case because of previous circumstance (Dittert/BroodKingEXE responses to me) but that's up to you to figure out since I won't be around now will I?
What do you want me to do, save myself by changing my vote to Yomi? And what happens if he flips red, all is forgiven and everyone will overlook my behavior? What happens if he flips green, then how do I explain myself? I'm in a lose-lose situation personally, and the best thing I can do for town is let my lynch go through and flip green to prove I was town.
It's now 2 for yomi and 3 for you. If you vote for yomi, it's 3 vs 3 (although we still need one more vote for yomi, because the votes for you were cast before the votes for yomi). Normally I would agree that it's useful to lynch you, but I now have such a strong Mafia read on yomi, that I can't really see myself being mistaken (unless yomi plays purposefully anti-town for some reason which I cannot comprehend). So it's a utility lynch versus an almost certain Mafia lynch. I'd choose the almost certain Mafia lynch in this case. AND if he is Mafia (like I believe strongly) it would almost completely free you from suspicion at this point.
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Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case):
- Willz is town
- yomi is Mafia
Here are the possible outcomes:
A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not.
B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow.
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I can't see a possible situation where both Willz and yomi would be Mafia. Then yomi would have ZERO reason to make such a nefarious plan by throwing one-liners at Willz's innocence and leaving the lynch to happen in peace.
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vonKlaust, I urge you to reconsider. If/when Willz flips town, we will just waste tomorrow by having to lynch yomi anyway. If we lynch yomi now, we will have much more information than by lynching Willz now. Of course there is a small chance that both Willz and yomi are town, but I am 90% confident at the moment that Willz is town and yomi is Mafia. It's definitely worth the (small) risk and I'm willing to take full responsibility for it.
Also consider the potential: lynching a Mafia on day 1 would make our lives exponentially easier tomorrow. I don't see Willz as Mafia at this point, so lynching him is pointless (other than for his confirmed town flip, but a confirmed Mafia flip on yomi is MUCH more useful to us).
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KharadBanar, I agree that nothing is certain until death, but there is no real explanation for yomi's actions unless he is Mafia and Willz is town (in my opinion). It's not 100% certain, but certain enough for me to not focus on Willz anymore.
I also urge you to vote for yomi. I see you think Willz is town, but unless you vote for yomi, he might be lynched soon. Your vote on HiroPro is doing 100% nothing at the moment and would be infinitely more useful on yomi.
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By all means, read through yomi's filter and mine (I mean you, vonKlaust and KharadBanar). Especially read yomi's case on Dittert and my case on yomi. I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did. A yomi lynch is a lynch for town victory. EVEN if the absolute worst happens and yomi flips town (which I highly, highly suspect - I can't find any explanation for yomi's play then) we can just use a Vigi shot to confirm Willz's town flip, if that is his wish (although I don't agree with it being good to kill someone who is almost certainly town). The only plausible way I can see this unfolding is yomi flips Mafia -> town is in the right track for victory.
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Thanks KharadBanar (both for the correction and your belief in my analysis).
BroodKing, you bring up good points about yomi. Are you willing to vote for him yet? Did you read his and my filters through? Don't you think he has done pretty much nothing pro-town so far and he is MUCH more likely to be Mafia than Willz? If that is the case, I strongly urge you to vote for yomi.
vonKlaust, I believe yomi and Willz can't (very probably at least) both be Mafia because of yomi's talk about Willz's innocence. It would just make absolutely no sense if they were both town - why risk such an obvious connection between the two? It would only make sense if yomi is Mafia and Willz town. I also have a meta-argument: I highly doubt Mafia would let things progress so freely to a state where 2 out of 3 (67%) of Mafia are the very top lynch targets, and there are no competing townie lynch targets.
So it's 4-4 right now. vonKlaust or BroodKing, either of you could settle yomi for the lynch. At the moment Willz is going to be lynched. I don't know where Willz disappeared now (please come back fast and post more pro-town content), but I'm strongly confident in my read on yomi.
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On April 14 2012 05:53 yomi wrote:
Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself
I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie.
##unvote: dittert
##vote: willz22912
I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro
Why so scared? If you are town, you should post and convince us you are innocent. Instead you try to protect your hide by sacrificing your "most townie read" even BEFORE you are set to be lynched. This makes me even more suspicious of you, which is quite an achievement. I can't see a motivation for town to do this.
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On April 14 2012 05:59 yomi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 05:55 Xatalos wrote:On April 14 2012 05:53 yomi wrote:
Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself
I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie.
##unvote: dittert
##vote: willz22912
I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro Why so scared? If you are town, you should post and convince us you are innocent. Instead you try to protect your hide by sacrificing your "most townie read" even BEFORE you are set to be lynched. This makes me even more suspicious of you, which is quite an achievement. I can't see a motivation for town to do this. Why so scared? I am one vote away from being lynched. I guess only a mafia gets scared when they are one vote away from being lynched. before I am set to be lynched? what do you mean? you want me to post with 1 second left? you can't see a motivation for a player to ensure they survive? this is becoming dittert playing dumb level of ridiculous
You accuse Dittert of playing dumb, but if anything, you are more guilty of that yourself. It says very clearly in the vote count that you were NOT set to be lynched yet, Willz was. Yet instead of trying to fight with your words to prove your innocence, you resort to the only weapon you have left: your vote. BroodKing, what do you think about this? Your vote alone would be enough to set yomi for lynch. Do you see sufficient evidence for yomi's Mafia play yet? vonKlaust, your vote will not be enough alone to set yomi for lynch, but you should still use it. Who knows what might happen in these last moments, a sudden vote switch or HiroPro emerging to vote for Willz.
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On April 14 2012 06:04 vonKlaust wrote:
@Xatalos
Well, you're right about that it's likely that both are not scum. However I'm not at all confortable with saying that this fact makes it pretty sure that they both aren't town. Just look at the way Yomi has been posting. He just seem to post whatever comes into mind without really explain it. But on the other hand this isn't very pro town, and since Trumpetarn and HiroPro are pretty likely to abstain from voting, you could be right that he is our best bet after Willz. Looking back he has actually been pretty negative for the town so far. Still, I'm not convinced he is mafia.
The thing is that everyone seems to have forgot why we put Willz here in the first place. Sure, he has been posting more pro-town now, but as I wrote earlier, this would also be expected from a mafia member. It doesn't convince me fully. And on top of that he wrote a bunch of martyrish stuff which were just wierd.
I'm not saying Willz's OMGUS war with Dittert was pro-town, or his earlier secrecy with his own reads... But both of these things CAN be explained from a townie's perspective. The OMGUS war could have been just genuine frustration at Dittert's stupidity and his secrecy could have, like he said, been to make his suspects post more freely (although I have a harder time believing this than his frustration with Dittert).
Can yomi's actions be explained from a townie's perspective? Not in my opinion. Why would he repeat that Willz is his strongest town read, yet without hesitation vote for him pre-emptively? Why would he repeat that Willz is town to begin with? It's not like he said anything to prove it, he just repeated it without any reasoning. That seems more like a Mafia tactic than a genuine will to save Willz from the lynch. His responses to my case on him have also been full of fear and side-stepping, even using his vote pre-emptively on Willz. He hasn't started to contribute like Willz did after he had a bandwagon form on him... If you think Mafia could act like Willz did in the last hours, it's a small possibility, but much more likely Mafia would act like yomi now.
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All I'm saying is: just look at yomi's filter and compare it with Willz's filter. yomi has no useful content, Willz has plenty of useful content. If yomi were to flip Mafia, he would leave no traces to his Mafia teammates. It looks like he avoids contributing or leading anyone else to suspicion like the plaque. This, if anything, is Mafia play.
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On April 14 2012 06:25 yomi wrote:I guess I do have a negative attitude. I flame people online that's definitely true. It is not unique to this game. This is me on tl: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=293561http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=326871¤tpage=7#129attacking other people being supportive: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328386Why am I like this online? I'm not sure, I'm very polite in person. I guess it's letting loose. I don't even know if I should respond to xatalos anymore honestly. He claims I was/am not in any danger but that is so patently dumb I don't know what to say. Xat you are aware that if I hit 5 before willz that I am pretty much dead right? the order of the votes counts bud..... You want me to act like willz, I am not willz. I'll try to go through and grab a more concrete read on someone else but I don't want to stretch anything. A lot of people's arguments are HIGHLY speculative IMO and I don't want to be forced into pulling something out of my ass. If I only have a few reads I'm confident in then that's that. I'm not going to grasp at straws just to say I "contributed" when I think there's way too much spam in this thread and now I'm beginning to contribute to it myself.
Anything helps, even if you have small Mafia reads. If you are Mafia, I don't blame you for not sharing your opinion openly, because that would just make it harder for your teammates tomorrow. But if you are town, you have NO reason to remain silent. Say everything (reasonable) on your mind at the moment. Mafia reads, town reads, anything.
BroodKing, what's your opinion now? Are you more convinced of yomi's suspiciousness after his recent actions? Or do you still think it's better to lynch Willz?
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And I agree vonKlaust, yomi would need to be Vigi shot even if he didn't get lynched now. So better just get it over with right away and save a Vigi shot.
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If I looked correctly, it's now 5 for yomi and 4 for Willz, right? BroodKing, I'm still waiting for your opinion. The rest are either AFK or lurking, so they seem to be set on their votes (thus irrelevant).
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On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:
This vote is way to close I am going to vote for Yomi to make sure Mafia don't get the initiative to switch. I have already put some thoughts down, but his recent posts haven't helped his case. He talks about how he has been flaming, and that he is going to get more information. The problem with this is that its roughly 1.5 hours to vote, any information he brings foward won't be able to analyzed properly and the voting will turn to chaos. Although I think willz is more likely scum.
##Unvote
##Vote: Yomi
WTF is that? Definitely the biggest Mafia slip so far. Trying to jump off the Willz bandwagon and failing horribly. If you think Willz is Mafia and yomi is town (or at least less likely Mafia than Willz), why would you EVER want to vote for yomi over Willz?
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Alright, I'm ready to vote for BroodKing. But first we have to make sure we don't just get halfway there and end up getting Willz lynched.
Everyone post like this if you want to vote BroodKing:
"ready to vote BroodKing"
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Ah, whatever. It already started.
##Unvote
##Vote: BroodKingEXE
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EPT
