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@ Xatalos
You may be right about Yomi, but I feel it's most beneficial for town at this point to confirm my lynch and get the information from my flip to decide about others.
If you are right, then when I flip green, your case on Yomi is stronger because of it. If you leave me alive and we lynch Yomi instead and he flips green as well (which I still think is possible), then you have no choice but to lynch me next and then we have 2 mis-lynches in a row.
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point.
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On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote:
@ Xatalos
You may be right about Yomi, but I feel it's most beneficial for town at this point to confirm my lynch and get the information from my flip to decide about others.
If you are right, then when I flip green, your case on Yomi is stronger because of it. If you leave me alive and we lynch Yomi instead and he flips green as well (which I still think is possible), then you have no choice but to lynch me next and then we have 2 mis-lynches in a row.
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point.
You say you think Yomi is town, Yomi has stated he thinks you're town, but when you're lynched and flip green, the case for Yomi being scum is stronger? Why? And if so, this is a good thing how exactly?
Your play just keeps getting stranger, dude. This logic is even worse than what we've seen so far. It's sounding more and more desperate.
What about Yomi's filter makes you read him as noob instead of scum? His case vs. Dittert is awful, and the rest of the posting is angry and nonsensical.
Is there anyone beside Brood and the lurker (Trumpet) who you can build a solid case against for lynching?
I'm really close to ignoring your posts until the lynch to be sure. It seems like scum trying to keep attention on himself so we don't notice everything else going on. Why no reaction to Acrofales stirring up a shitstorm around you then disappearing before the vote with an "I can't read the thread or change my vote, I'm busy, but I like willz case." excuse? Sure he reads town to most everyone, but you HAVE to call him out on that, right? You were reading town to most everyone until last night too.
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@ ArcticFox
Read Xatalos' argument, it makes sense. If yomi was Mafia and he knew I was the likely lynch target, and he knows I'm really town, he can post that in his defense freely without giving too much away, it gains him credibility. The only reason he would post that without any other support is if he had inside knowledge
I think Yomi is newbie because he's tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert is tunneling me. Do you think Dittert is Mafia for posting the original case against me and trying to lynch me? How is this any different from Yomi against Dittert? They're both newb towns tunneling everyone.
I read through Acrofale's case on me and I see the logic in it because I'm reading an unbiased version of my accounts from a different perspective. I cannot argue against it, it makes sense, I suppose he could be Mafia making an easy case because of previous circumstance (Dittert/BroodKingEXE responses to me) but that's up to you to figure out since I won't be around now will I?
What do you want me to do, save myself by changing my vote to Yomi? And what happens if he flips red, all is forgiven and everyone will overlook my behavior? What happens if he flips green, then how do I explain myself? I'm in a lose-lose situation personally, and the best thing I can do for town is let my lynch go through and flip green to prove I was town.
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On April 14 2012 04:22 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote:
@ Xatalos
You may be right about Yomi, but I feel it's most beneficial for town at this point to confirm my lynch and get the information from my flip to decide about others.
If you are right, then when I flip green, your case on Yomi is stronger because of it. If you leave me alive and we lynch Yomi instead and he flips green as well (which I still think is possible), then you have no choice but to lynch me next and then we have 2 mis-lynches in a row.
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point. You say you think Yomi is town, Yomi has stated he thinks you're town, but when you're lynched and flip green, the case for Yomi being scum is stronger? Why? And if so, this is a good thing how exactly? Your play just keeps getting stranger, dude. This logic is even worse than what we've seen so far. It's sounding more and more desperate. What about Yomi's filter makes you read him as noob instead of scum? His case vs. Dittert is awful, and the rest of the posting is angry and nonsensical. Is there anyone beside Brood and the lurker (Trumpet) who you can build a solid case against for lynching? I'm really close to ignoring your posts until the lynch to be sure. It seems like scum trying to keep attention on himself so we don't notice everything else going on. Why no reaction to Acrofales stirring up a shitstorm around you then disappearing before the vote with an "I can't read the thread or change my vote, I'm busy, but I like willz case." excuse? Sure he reads town to most everyone, but you HAVE to call him out on that, right? You were reading town to most everyone until last night too.
Did you read my post, ArcticFox? Willz hasn't made a case against him, but I have. He just responded to my case there... And he means that if he gets mislynched and flips town, my case is stronger, because my case against yomi depends on Willz actually being town. At this point, I'm not very confident in Willz being Mafia, since his latest posts have been very insightful and relevant. I would rate his current play as very pro-town. yomi's play I would rate as very anti-town.
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On April 14 2012 04:31 willz22912 wrote:
@ ArcticFox
Read Xatalos' argument, it makes sense. If yomi was Mafia and he knew I was the likely lynch target, and he knows I'm really town, he can post that in his defense freely without giving too much away, it gains him credibility. The only reason he would post that without any other support is if he had inside knowledge
I think Yomi is newbie because he's tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert is tunneling me. Do you think Dittert is Mafia for posting the original case against me and trying to lynch me? How is this any different from Yomi against Dittert? They're both newb towns tunneling everyone.
I read through Acrofale's case on me and I see the logic in it because I'm reading an unbiased version of my accounts from a different perspective. I cannot argue against it, it makes sense, I suppose he could be Mafia making an easy case because of previous circumstance (Dittert/BroodKingEXE responses to me) but that's up to you to figure out since I won't be around now will I?
What do you want me to do, save myself by changing my vote to Yomi? And what happens if he flips red, all is forgiven and everyone will overlook my behavior? What happens if he flips green, then how do I explain myself? I'm in a lose-lose situation personally, and the best thing I can do for town is let my lynch go through and flip green to prove I was town.
I want you to tell me why you think sacrificing yourself and throwing suspicion onto yomi is a good thing when you're convinced that yomi's a newbie town instead of scum. That's the whole basis of my statement.
@Xatalos -- my vote is already on yomi, so I agree with you. I'm wondering why willz would be for throwing more suspicion on yomi if he's sure that yomi's town.
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On April 14 2012 04:31 willz22912 wrote:
@ ArcticFox
Read Xatalos' argument, it makes sense. If yomi was Mafia and he knew I was the likely lynch target, and he knows I'm really town, he can post that in his defense freely without giving too much away, it gains him credibility. The only reason he would post that without any other support is if he had inside knowledge
I think Yomi is newbie because he's tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert is tunneling me. Do you think Dittert is Mafia for posting the original case against me and trying to lynch me? How is this any different from Yomi against Dittert? They're both newb towns tunneling everyone.
I read through Acrofale's case on me and I see the logic in it because I'm reading an unbiased version of my accounts from a different perspective. I cannot argue against it, it makes sense, I suppose he could be Mafia making an easy case because of previous circumstance (Dittert/BroodKingEXE responses to me) but that's up to you to figure out since I won't be around now will I?
What do you want me to do, save myself by changing my vote to Yomi? And what happens if he flips red, all is forgiven and everyone will overlook my behavior? What happens if he flips green, then how do I explain myself? I'm in a lose-lose situation personally, and the best thing I can do for town is let my lynch go through and flip green to prove I was town.
It's now 2 for yomi and 3 for you. If you vote for yomi, it's 3 vs 3 (although we still need one more vote for yomi, because the votes for you were cast before the votes for yomi). Normally I would agree that it's useful to lynch you, but I now have such a strong Mafia read on yomi, that I can't really see myself being mistaken (unless yomi plays purposefully anti-town for some reason which I cannot comprehend). So it's a utility lynch versus an almost certain Mafia lynch. I'd choose the almost certain Mafia lynch in this case. AND if he is Mafia (like I believe strongly) it would almost completely free you from suspicion at this point.
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##Unvote: BroodKingEXE
##Vote: Willz22912
This discussion is now pointless for me, and I'm a little sad/angry at myself for my poor play for letting it come to this point, so I'm going to leave now. I've stated all I can, I'll keep up with the thread and hopefully see a town victory. Town, look at who voted me, but focus on BroodkingEXE please, ignore Dittert, he doesn't know any better.
I suppose you should also look at Acrofales for making an easy case against me and then peacing out. GL
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On April 14 2012 04:42 willz22912 wrote:
##Unvote: BroodKingEXE
##Vote: Willz22912
This discussion is now pointless for me, and I'm a little sad/angry at myself for my poor play for letting it come to this point, so I'm going to leave now. I've stated all I can, I'll keep up with the thread and hopefully see a town victory. Town, look at who voted me, but focus on BroodkingEXE please, ignore Dittert, he doesn't know any better.
I suppose you should also look at Acrofales for making an easy case against me and then peacing out. GL
If you flip green after this tantrum I'm going to be SO pissed at you for voting for literally the only person you 100% know is town.
If you flip red, thanks for saving me the next 3 hours of trying to drag more information out of you that we wouldn't be able to use.
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@ Xatalos, it wouldn't free me from suspicion, I've been arguing in defense of Yomi the whole time, a 180 like that to save myself could only be seen as a possible bus attempt by a Mafia to save themselves. It's too self serving.
Don't worry about it, if you are right you can get him D2.
@ ArcticFox I could be wrong couldn't I about Yomi? I could be defending a Mafia unintentionally and being blind to the possibility, so I shouldn't tunnel my thinking. However, Xatalos's case against Yomi relies on my flip being green to give it weight, ergo I must die.
Do you really want me to vote Yomi? Fine, but I don't see how it's going to help how people think of me, I have 0 credibility left with town, it's really pointless to keep me alive, but okay whatever.
##Unvote: Willz22912
##Vote: Yomi
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Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case):
- Willz is town
- yomi is Mafia
Here are the possible outcomes:
A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not.
B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow.
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Alright, so here's what I am thinking.
I do think that Willz have been posting pro-towny since the accusations of him. This makes a part of me want to unvote him, but to me it's not enough to compensate for his earlier hipocracy. His defence FEELS sincere but he have actually been pretty sneaky up until now, and the fact that he has changed his play to more pro town after his accusations(and the following votes) does not really tick his meter in any direction. This kind of behaviour could just as likely be mafia trying to slither out of a lynch as it is town. I'm going to stick with my vote on Willz for now.
But at the same time, some parts of his case against Brood makes sense, and if Willz gets lynched and flips town, I'm gonna dig into Brood.
Also, if there is a Vig in this game, please shoot Hiro. Maybe not tonight, but do it tomorrow night if he haven't stepped up his game severely. He has been contributing nothing, been actively lurking, and we have pretty much nothing to go on when it comes to him.
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I can't see a possible situation where both Willz and yomi would be Mafia. Then yomi would have ZERO reason to make such a nefarious plan by throwing one-liners at Willz's innocence and leaving the lynch to happen in peace.
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EBOWOWBOP:
Some of the defence from Willz I really don't like. Martyr stuff like voting for himself and writing stuff like:
You may be right about Yomi, but I feel it's most beneficial for town at this point to confirm my lynch and get the information from my flip to decide about others.
Obviously it is not good for town to lynch a townie(which you are claiming that you are). I can understand if you're frustated but stuff like this isn't making anything better. It's just bad reasoning and adds to the confusion.
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On April 14 2012 04:49 Xatalos wrote:
Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case):
- Willz is town
- yomi is Mafia
Here are the possible outcomes:
A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not.
B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town have a town read on willz, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow. FTFY
We cannot ever see someone as confirmed town before he flips. This way lies a mafia victory because they can use that hugely to their advantage. And never ever say about yourself to be confirmed town. Ever. This just makes you suspicious
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vonKlaust, I urge you to reconsider. If/when Willz flips town, we will just waste tomorrow by having to lynch yomi anyway. If we lynch yomi now, we will have much more information than by lynching Willz now. Of course there is a small chance that both Willz and yomi are town, but I am 90% confident at the moment that Willz is town and yomi is Mafia. It's definitely worth the (small) risk and I'm willing to take full responsibility for it.
Also consider the potential: lynching a Mafia on day 1 would make our lives exponentially easier tomorrow. I don't see Willz as Mafia at this point, so lynching him is pointless (other than for his confirmed town flip, but a confirmed Mafia flip on yomi is MUCH more useful to us).
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@Xatalos
I will take a look at Yomi's filter. He has kind of gone under my radar so far.
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KharadBanar, I agree that nothing is certain until death, but there is no real explanation for yomi's actions unless he is Mafia and Willz is town (in my opinion). It's not 100% certain, but certain enough for me to not focus on Willz anymore.
I also urge you to vote for yomi. I see you think Willz is town, but unless you vote for yomi, he might be lynched soon. Your vote on HiroPro is doing 100% nothing at the moment and would be infinitely more useful on yomi.
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By all means, read through yomi's filter and mine (I mean you, vonKlaust and KharadBanar). Especially read yomi's case on Dittert and my case on yomi. I think you'll come to the same conclusion as I did. A yomi lynch is a lynch for town victory. EVEN if the absolute worst happens and yomi flips town (which I highly, highly suspect - I can't find any explanation for yomi's play then) we can just use a Vigi shot to confirm Willz's town flip, if that is his wish (although I don't agree with it being good to kill someone who is almost certainly town). The only plausible way I can see this unfolding is yomi flips Mafia -> town is in the right track for victory.
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On April 14 2012 03:55 Xatalos wrote:
I wasn't sure about voting for yomi over Willz before this post, but now I am. There are several things about yomi that make me very suspicious of him:
A) He has been lurking extremely hard and contributing nothing until this moment. Right as Willz starts defending himself, yomi suddenly appears and makes a case against Dittert to improve his filter while avoiding any real attention with this Willz debate going on. Is this a coincidence? It MIGHT be, but I'm leaning on this being a purposeful play. Yesterday he said he would start contributing for real today, but all I see is this one post and then he's already going away until deadline.
B) yomi doesn't try to defend Willz or sway the vote away from him, but he says some empty one-liners like "if I were you I'd reconsider lynching Willz", "I have the most confidence in Willz as town", stuff like that. To me, this looks like pure Mafia play. He knows Willz is town, so he leaves these remarks on his post history to look better later on. When Willz inevitably flips town, he can be "safe" tomorrow by claiming he knew Willz was innocent all along and vote for somebody who voted for Willz. Easy offence and defence in one tactic!
C) His case on Dittert is pretty lackluster and, in my opinion, only a cover for avoiding attention for tomorrow. Dittert has been talked about to death already and yomi's case against him doesn't really bring anything new to the table. Still, he's a safe target for his noobie errors earlier and rather stubborn tunneling on Willz (which is not necessarily a Mafia tell IMO, because Mafia don't want to be the figureheads of mislynches). I think most share the opinion that Dittert is a noob townie who doesn't quite realize what he's doing. Focusing on him now isn't very productive in my eyes, especially since yomi merely repeats earlier accusations against him (plus some stuff about Willz's innocence only to improve his own credibility for tomorrow).
I'm pretty confident about yomi being Mafia - reconsider voting for him after reading this post, Willz. If you voted for him, it would be 3 for yomi and 4 for you. I still see it as somehow possible to lynch yomi instead of you and I think it's the better solution. Lynching you isn't too bad either, since you had some pretty suspicious stuff (or if you flip town, your words will be noted tomorrow with more importance and we can study this bandwagon more closely) but I'm much more confident in lynching yomi than you right now.
A & B:
On April 14 2012 03:55 Xatalos wrote:
yomi doesn't try to defend Willz or sway the vote away from him, but he says some empty one-liners like "if I were you I'd reconsider lynching Willz", "I have the most confidence in Willz as town", stuff like that
This is an empty one-liner? fuck me...
What do you want me to say?
I am 100% sure willz is town. if you vote for him i am 100% sure you are mafia.
is that not empty? wtf...
I have avoided the willz debate? I have not defended him? This is a ridiculous accusation. I'm not going to back the guy 100% but I have stated my opinion. I think he's town. I was the first to say he's town. I still say he's town. I guess these are empty one-liners to you but I don't know what to say to that. You want me to take a more hardline stance but I can't. I think the guy is safe. Especially now in these closing hours it just seems more and more town to me. I'll never go 100% and why am I the only one who has to go 100% on a guy?
When Willz inevitably flips town, he can be "safe" tomorrow by claiming he knew Willz was innocent all along and vote for somebody who voted for Willz. Easy offence and defence in one tactic!
damed if I do, damned if I don't. If i am less fervent in my defense of willz I am not defending him. If I defend him and he flips town it is a clever mafia play. What would make you NOT suspicious of me?
I have defended him more than you and am becoming increasingly uncomfortable pinning my reputation on one guy but you seem to want me to do that. You seem to already have a gambit in mind that based on this one flip you are ready to go-ahead with and even call for vigi action! How can you be so sure? I stand by my initial read of you that you are town, but a ridiculous one. A "dunce" I think I called you and now you are retaliating.
C:
Dittert has been talked to death because he is so suspicious. Maybe you don't think I caught anything new. I think I pointed out the "playing dumb" angle pretty well.
I think most share the opinion that Dittert is a noob townie who doesn't quite realize what he's doing
Exactly. I am trying to sway people that he is not a noob townie and DOES know what he's doing. That his posts are too ridiculous to believe. I don't know what you consider a solid case to be but it's all speculation so far. I think it's a good case, I think it makes as much sense as anyone else's and I think it's logical.
No investigations have gone out. No one has flipped. No one has anything concrete on anything. I am posting what my intuition tells me. Who I suspect and who I don't. To pretend you are doing anything different is ridiculous. My arguments are as legitimate as yours.
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@Xatalos I think that Yomi is scummy, but we don't have enough to lynch him now. His latest case on dittert is shaky at best, but he hasn't spoken enough for me to draw a surefire conclusion. I think Willz and Yomi could both be scum, a Mafia could lightly defend his teammate to move suspicion off him. I agree that Willz pleading sounds pro-town, but I feel he still only has suspicions vs evidence on his suspected. I want him to build another case, because if he is a townie we need to know where to go after the night. The town might go after me, but if I flip town then four people would be dead with no leads on anyone.
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EPT
