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Only mafia know the reasons behind the night kills and I think speculating about why certain people were killed is extremely WIFOM and distracts from actually looking for mafia.
Marvel pretty much ignored the response I made to his accusation against me, except to quote a post from day 1 when i voted for solohan, when I was in fact talking about the vote of solohan over Kohbee on day 2.
My stance was perfectly clear when I voted for solohan over Kohbee. Kohbee did not respond the way that a mafia would when I pressured him or when strong and yourself posted reads on him. And I had already become suspicious of the logic that solohan used to make his case. If you'll reread my posts in their entirety without taking little snippets from here and there you will see my logic.
Hiro: you voted for Solohan because "you didn't want mafia to control the vote". You said Kohbee is completely pro-town simply on the basis that he was talking, but that's not why you voted Solohan at the time.
These things are minor and not enough to lynch someone. But I cannot find anything scummy on strong, except for the same decisions and votes that marvel made. Also, if strong was mafia, he would follow suit with marvel's vote and ensure town is lynched; he wouldn't wait to make a vote.
And ultimately, both Kohbee and Kharad thought the 2nd mafia was marvellosity. They've been right about everything else. I think they're right about this too.
##Vote: marvellosity
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Yay, posting! I was beginning to think this game was going to die a slow horrible death. I'm glad you're willing to critically rethink your reads. I'm just going to talk about some things and hopefully get you to think about them in a different way.
On April 10 2012 06:48 strongandbig wrote:However, that also smells a lot like the analysis you made on the fourface killing: + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote:
The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me).
##Vote: Kohbee And the post that Kohbee pointed out in his pre-death post: + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote:If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical.
Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum?... In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler +On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote:
Bah.
Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment.
If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself.
So we should know at the end of the night what is what. and then continues with the same WIFOM argument the next day. ... He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is.
I also note that Solohan made the same sort of analysis: + Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote:
- Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more.
It sounds like fourface was killed because the mafia thought that it would help them convince town to lynch Kohbee.
This has to be the biggest regret-that-I-didn't-know-would-be-a-regret for me in the game. I happen to make a circumstancial argument vs Kohbee, that, unfortunately for me, Solohan also used. However, it was only a part of why I thought Kohbee was scum (I made several other points within that same post). Now, if Kohbee had flipped scum, that circumstancial evidence would have proven correct. It's only because Kohbee happened to flip blue after I voted for him (and you incidentally) that this now looks incriminating. At the time it seemed logical enough (the people having arguments with Kohbee WERE dying after all).
On April 10 2012 06:48 strongandbig wrote:
Other than that, there's hiro's post yesterday, which seems town-ish to me in light of omnom dying. The reason for this is that it undermines any case hiro would make today against either of us being scum.
Amongst the large amount of WIFOM I'm desperately trying to avoid posting, I'd like to at least propose this could be viewed in a different light. Hiro has been going after omnom, makes this point purposefully looking townie, and then when 'shockingly' omnom turns up dead, he can go "aww shucks, seems I was wrong and one of you two must be mafia! *hops on s&b's case against marv*" Hiro doesn't have to make a case when you're already on mine. Again, I appreciate this is WIFOM, but please consider it among other things.
On April 10 2012 06:48 strongandbig wrote:HOWEVER! Here's a post from solohan that makes me feel very uncertain about the idea that he and marvellosity could have been scum together: Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:08 Solohan50 wrote:
I probably should've done this on my last post, but ##Vote: Kohbee. At this point, it's either myself or Kohbee that are getting lynched today, and everyone knows where I stand. If Kohbee gets lynched and flips green/blue, then it's my nuts on the chopping block, most likely followed by marvellosity. If Kohbee flips red, then I think HiroPro is the next likely candidate. He's been relatively consistent in voting for me, he helped bandwagon Therapist at the end of Day 1, and seems to be defending Kohbee against my attacks. It's not an ironclad, bulletproof case, but that's what I think.
With that said, carry on gentlemen. The next few hours should be interesting. If you do decide to lynch me, make sure the noose is an extra large one; my head is fairly large.
I have to thank you here - I didn't even think to look at Solohan's filter! But this is bang on the money. He explicitly connects us both. Added to this is the post I made at the time where I believed I would be the prime target after Kohbee's killing (I was naive about Solohan apparently):
On April 04 2012 22:28 marvellosity wrote:
Responsibility for my actions? You are the first person I'm pushing hard for a lynch, Kohbee. I am well aware that if you get lynched and you flip blue, I will be #1 target.
In the meanwhile, Hiro is ninjaing me and following the established plan of trying to confirm s&b's suspicions of me. Good stuff.
On April 10 2012 07:35 HiroPro wrote:
Only mafia know the reasons behind the night kills and I think speculating about why certain people were killed is extremely WIFOM and distracts from actually looking for mafia.
No, it IS important and relevant as the last major action taken in this game.
strongandbig, I ask you the following. Consider that I am mafia, and we will consider the nightkill. It could go down as it did:
1) I kill omnom. S&B has suspicions of me and Hiro can bandwagon this.
2) I kill HiroPro. This leaves s&b and omnom as town. omnom's mafia read just died, and s&b has been pushing marv all game. omnom has to form a new opinion, with... only s&b's large arguments against marv, vs marv's one-liner about being annoyed by s&b (please consider I said I had town-reads on you at least twice this game)
3) I kill strongandbig. Now I am left with my case against Hiro, plus omnom muffins - who also had Hiro as prime target. There is one possible downside to this - for whatever reason, omnom thinks s&b's death is dodgy because he suspected me. But, the real fact is that THERE WOULD BE TWO PEOPLE GUNNING FOR HIRO, AND ZERO GUNNING FOR MARV. Also note that you s&b are probably the strongest collective town-read, so your death would not be surprising in of itself.
Please, and I mean please pretty please, tell me why I as mafia would choose option 1 over option 3. It simply makes no sense. Like, I can't stress this question enough. Leaving you alive when I would have me and someone else who stated that Hiro is their mafia is just madness. Why, oh why, would I kill the ONE person about to join in on my case?
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EBWOP: I can make my 3) there doubly compelling - it's either MARV + OMNOM = take down Hiro. OR Hiro has been gunning for omnommuffins for AGES, so a marv mafia could instead go MARV + HIRO = take down omnom.
As mafia, I must must choose 3) as my nightkill.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Just wanted to let you know that I may be slightly late for tonight, hopefully I can get Cephiro to make the final post
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So, as this day drags on, I start to get the sickening feeling that I've made a terrible mistake, and strongandbig has been playing me very convincingly.
Why? This is the last day with the entire result on the line. What of it you say? strongandbig has posted twice in Bastard Mafia but not at all here. What the hell is that about?
I'm now just confused. I didn't like HiroPro's comment about ignoring the nightkill because it's important. The night-kill is practically what clears me about being mafia. Whoever is town, you have to understand this.
Now wait, you say, couldn't you have killed omnommuffins with a view to claim you wouldn't possibly do that and clear yourself? Yes, yes I could. But it's come down to me pleading with the other townsperson to simply believe me. Killing strongandbig would have given me FAR higher chances for victory.
So, I've thought Hiro was the scum. But now s&b goes posting in other games without posting here and I'm all a flutter.
Whoever is town, this is our last chance to make this right. Please help me.
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The reason I haven't been posting here is because I have no fucking clue what to do.
Hiro has said very little in the last few days.
However, your arguments about how we should interpret the night kills sound really scummy to me. Just like I believe fourface was killed in order to set up the frame on kohbee, it also seems like omnom could have been killed so that you could say "why would I do that?"
Right now I'm reading filters.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Oh good god. Of course I could bloody say "why would I do that".
But how can you possibly believe that my chances in that situation would be higher than killing you?
THAT is the question. Nothing more.
I'll put it as a 2 parted, related question:
1) Would my chances as mafia of victory be higher in killing strongandbig and having my choice of wagon be higher than killing omnom and having to plead with the townsperson to win?
a) yes
b) no
Conclusion: ...
2) Do you think I'm stupid enough to have thought that pleading a wifom case on the final day was a better play than killing you and lynching someone else during the final day?
a) yes
b) no
Conclusion: ...
Basically, do you think I'm an idiot? To reiterate one more time, I COULD HAVE set this up to say "why would I do that". But clearly my chances were far higher in killing strongandbig regardless.
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I don't believe a word you're saying right now. Your entire case is based on night kill WIFOM, which is something that mafia are primarily concerned with.
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Of course I'm bloody concerned with it because i've have to be a fucking retarded mafia to have killed omnom.
At least now I'm certain it is s&b who is town.
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On April 11 2012 07:20 marvellosity wrote:
Oh good god. Of course I could bloody say "why would I do that".
But how can you possibly believe that my chances in that situation would be higher than killing you?
THAT is the question. Nothing more.
I'll put it as a 2 parted, related question:
1) Would my chances as mafia of victory be higher in killing strongandbig and having my choice of wagon be higher than killing omnom and having to plead with the townsperson to win?
a) yes
b) no
Conclusion: ...
2) Do you think I'm stupid enough to have thought that pleading a wifom case on the final day was a better play than killing you and lynching someone else during the final day?
a) yes
b) no
Conclusion: ...
Basically, do you think I'm an idiot? To reiterate one more time, I COULD HAVE set this up to say "why would I do that". But clearly my chances were far higher in killing strongandbig regardless.
Well, Solohan was an idiot.
Here's something else I found in his filter:
On April 03 2012 01:33 Solohan50 wrote:
I find it amusing that Kohbee is sitting here telling the entire thread who is scum, based off of who voted to lynch him. I would be more worried about some of the last-minute switches than I would about the people who thought you were scum from the start. A last minute vote-switch to the Therapist bandwagon would be the perfect place for scum to hide. It gives them all the credibility in the world, even if they have to miss out on the supposed "Cop". What better way to pretend you're not scum than to say "But I saved the Cop at the end?".
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I'm going to dinner. I'll vote on the way back.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
I didn't ask if Solohan was an idiot. You can take all my previous posts (where I have clearly been trying very hard for many days) or Hiro's extremely occasional, not-making-an-effort posts.
I will reiterate my questions that you quoted. Do you believe that I would have been that stupid? Is that what your filter tells me? Does my capacity to even ask the questions not indicate the answer?
Please just answer the two questions I posed and vote. If you think that I would be dumb enough not to have killed you and ended up in this extremely frustrating situation, then so be it.
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EBWOP: is that what my filter tells you, not vice versa of course
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I'm touched you believe in my intelligence ^^
Cue Hiro actually making an effort for the first time in days to remedy situation
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I pushed for a lynch on solohan. I argued that Kohbee's play was not like that of mafia and that the case solohan made no sense and was scummy. I focused on reads and mafia behavior. These aren't mafia actions.
Marvel has focused on WIFOM throughout the entire game and has completely disregarded my response to his "case". That's the not the way a townsperson plays.
If you can't believe me, then fine. But remember Kohbee and Kharad; they both identified marvel as their strongest mafia read after solohan.
Don't let this end in a loss for town.
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I am actually feeling a certain sense of elation, not because strongandbig is voting with me, which gives me the win, but because my mafia-read on you, Hiro, was correct. Your last two posts have proven this to me, whereas with s&b's posting on Bastard I had begun to doubt myself.
Your play has been clever, I'll give you that. you bussed solohan when it was clear the 4 votes on Kohbee were absolutely staying on Kohbee. You then set yourself up to look uber townie by accusing omnom, making a pre-day post, and then killing him.
What you failed to appreciate, however, is how killing omnom would look if I were mafia, and that's your mistake. You realised this after I pointed it out and tried to downplay it immediately
On April 10 2012 07:35 HiroPro wrote:
Only mafia know the reasons behind the night kills and I think speculating about why certain people were killed is extremely WIFOM and distracts from actually looking for mafia.
Then again you desperately try to discredit it
On April 11 2012 07:31 HiroPro wrote:
I don't believe a word you're saying right now. Your entire case is based on night kill WIFOM, which is something that mafia are primarily concerned with.
because you know it's so important.
I will happily ask you the two questions I asked strongandbig. Tell me straight, no other fluff, do you possibly think I could have played like that unless I was dumb? Looking forward to your answer.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
EBWOP: regarding my 2nd quote - you don't believe a word I'm saying? I wasn't saying anything, I was asking questions. Questions which you know the answer to.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
:rolls eyes:
yay, I'm a dumbass again
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EPT
