EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VI - Page 32
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
Fourface and hiropro didn't have to do anything after he claimed. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
You bang on about ACTIONS, my actions were to save Kohbee the blueclaimer from the lynch only to go after him superhard the next day. Those are not mafia ACTIONS. Geddit? | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
As for going after him the next day, I need to think some more about how that all went down. Obviously since I also went after him, I believe that there was a town rationale for doing so. However, that doesn't mean there wasn't also a scum rationale for it. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Meanwhile, we need to hear from omnommuffins. We need to hear what he promised us On April 08 2012 11:58 omnomMuffins wrote: I am leaning towards HiroPro as mafia. Will do a whole post on why once this whole GSTL drama dies down. I reserve the right to change that opinion when I go through the filters again. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
My thoughts on the night-time kill: if omnom isn't mafia, anyone could be killed as long as omnom is left alive as a now too obvious last day lynch. If he is mafia, he would probably kill hiro. This is why I don't like inactivity | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Day 4 ![[image loading]](http://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/animals-freeze-in-zoo.jpg) As day dawned, only 3 members of the zoo staff met in the break room. "Where is he?" "Dunno, maybe he stopped to get breakfast" Searching the grounds, the three employees quickly found their fourth compatriot. Lying face down with the vervet monkeys, a mostly eaten bag of freshly baked blueberry muffins nestled protectively under her body. "Roll her over" "YOU roll her over!" As the three men scattered the monkeys and rolled over the body, there could be no doubt. OmnomMuffins had been brutally scratched and bitten by the monkeys, yet her muffiny countenance was easily recognizable. The three men looked at each other. "I guess this is it...." OmnomMuffins the Vanilla Townie has been mauled by Vervet Monkeys! This is it folks! Voting ends in 48 hours at 00:00 GMT (+00:00) | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 09 2012 09:11 marvellosity wrote: What? This is so confusing to me. I admit it's strange, Vervet Monkeys are not normally so aggressive. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Best case scenario was probably that omnom was mafia, anyone died, omnom got lynched and town wins. Worst case scenario is that omnom wasn't mafia, random guy got killed, and the last remaining mafia managed to have omnom lynched. We're in the middle case scenario where omnom isn't mafia but was hit. This is extremely surprisingly to me. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
Very interesting though. I feel like I'm in a Poirot movie or something... "the murderer is among us - in this very room!" | ||
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omnomMuffins
United States255 Posts
Also, sorry I didn't get a chance to post, it has been rather ridiculous here at IPL. Gogo town. | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
I need to go through filters. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I've been jotting down things in notepad, and I've realised I can't sit here in silence, because: a) if Hiro is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to lynch me with strongandbig's help, who has been suspecting me for much of the game b) if strongandbig is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to bring Hiro over to his case against... me again. Now, for some reason mafia thought that killing omnom muffins would be the strongest move, principally because they thought they could get someone else lynched with someone else's help, saving themself. What I can't quite get my head around is that omnom was a good and likely lynch target for anyone involved, it's why this is so tricky. One thing I can think of is this: omnom clearly stated she was going to make a case against Hiro, and as she flipped townie, we can presume that clearly she meant to make a case. This is a decent reason for omnom to be the nightkill, especially given omnom's erratic posting pattern, the kill could occur before omnom made her case (as it indeed occurred). Taking this further into some if buts - Hiro leaves omnom alive, and kills me. omnom goes on to make her case against Hiro, which coupled with my previous case and subsequent death, would be fairly compelling evidence against Hiro. Or, Hiro kills s&b, leaving - me and omnom, both of whom have either already or are planning to make cases against Hiro. Hiro could also be heavily relying on s&b not taking any of this at any worth, because s&b would be thinking of me as mafia. If s&b was mafia, I can't see good enough reasoning for him not leaving omnom alive. This post has been a bit of a journey of discovery for me. But, based on: a) my previously made case vs Hiro b) s&b's longstanding suspicion of me c) omnom's suspicion of hiro and the nightkill only making sense from hiro's perspective, I firmly believe that HiroPro is scum. ##Vote: HiroPro | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On April 10 2012 03:09 marvellosity wrote: So, this omnom killing seems to have thrown us into silence/confusion. I'm guessing whoever is town is confused and not sure what to think/analyse at the moment. I've been jotting down things in notepad, and I've realised I can't sit here in silence, because: a) if Hiro is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to lynch me with strongandbig's help, who has been suspecting me for much of the game b) if strongandbig is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to bring Hiro over to his case against... me again. Now, for some reason mafia thought that killing omnom muffins would be the strongest move, principally because they thought they could get someone else lynched with someone else's help, saving themself. What I can't quite get my head around is that omnom was a good and likely lynch target for anyone involved, it's why this is so tricky. One thing I can think of is this: omnom clearly stated she was going to make a case against Hiro, and as she flipped townie, we can presume that clearly she meant to make a case. This is a decent reason for omnom to be the nightkill, especially given omnom's erratic posting pattern, the kill could occur before omnom made her case (as it indeed occurred). Taking this further into some if buts - Hiro leaves omnom alive, and kills me. omnom goes on to make her case against Hiro, which coupled with my previous case and subsequent death, would be fairly compelling evidence against Hiro. Or, Hiro kills s&b, leaving - me and omnom, both of whom have either already or are planning to make cases against Hiro. Hiro could also be heavily relying on s&b not taking any of this at any worth, because s&b would be thinking of me as mafia. If s&b was mafia, I can't see good enough reasoning for him not leaving omnom alive. This post has been a bit of a journey of discovery for me. But, based on: a) my previously made case vs Hiro b) s&b's longstanding suspicion of me c) omnom's suspicion of hiro and the nightkill only making sense from hiro's perspective, I firmly believe that HiroPro is scum. ##Vote: HiroPro A lot of this makes some amount of sense to me. However - I'm still not entirely convinced. Why would HiroPro have posted this yesterday, knowing that he was going to kill omnom? + Show Spoiler + On April 09 2012 08:56 HiroPro wrote: If I die, lynch omnom. Neither strong nor marvel look like mafia to me and omnom has been anti-town this entire game. Read my last couple of posts on omnom. I think this is it for me I don't think this post makes sense if hiropro is going to kill omnom. It undermines any case he could make against either of us. He would have to rely on us making cases against each other. Now, it's possible that he would, since I've been suspicious of you and you indicated yesterday that you were suspicious of me. But (and here I am inserting how I would play into someone else's head again) it seems like that would be too risky compared to killing either one of us and trying to persuade the other one to go after omnommuffins. Actually, it seems to me that if hiro was the mafia, the best move would have been to kill you and then convince me that omnommuffins is the scum. Hiro has been pushing his case against omnom for basically the whole game, and it was a relatively convincing one imo. For the last five days, he's said pretty much daily that omnom is his guess for the second mafia. You say that because I've been suspicious of you, it makes sense for hiropro to kill omnom because then he could hope to persuade me to lynch you. That's true, so I really want to hear what hiropro has to say about the situation. However, that also smells a lot like the analysis you made on the fourface killing: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). ##Vote: Kohbee And the post that Kohbee pointed out in his pre-death post: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote: If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical. Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum? ... In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote: Bah. Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment. If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself. So we should know at the end of the night what is what. ... He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is. I also note that Solohan made the same sort of analysis: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. It sounds like fourface was killed because the mafia thought that it would help them convince town to lynch Kohbee. HOWEVER! Here's a post from solohan that makes me feel very uncertain about the idea that he and marvellosity could have been scum together: On April 05 2012 03:08 Solohan50 wrote: I probably should've done this on my last post, but ##Vote: Kohbee. At this point, it's either myself or Kohbee that are getting lynched today, and everyone knows where I stand. If Kohbee gets lynched and flips green/blue, then it's my nuts on the chopping block, most likely followed by marvellosity. If Kohbee flips red, then I think HiroPro is the next likely candidate. He's been relatively consistent in voting for me, he helped bandwagon Therapist at the end of Day 1, and seems to be defending Kohbee against my attacks. It's not an ironclad, bulletproof case, but that's what I think. With that said, carry on gentlemen. The next few hours should be interesting. If you do decide to lynch me, make sure the noose is an extra large one; my head is fairly large. Interesting note: this is the only time in the entire game that solohan mentioned either of you by name. It seems like it makes little sense for him to associate himself with his scumbuddy like this - to me, this post could be a point against hiropro and a point in marvellosity's favor. However, that becomes a bit of wifom analysis; kohbee had recently accused solohan and marvellosity of being the scum team together, and everyone's thoughts were leaning in that direction. So now we come to the thing that I focused on almost exclusively for the first few days of this game; the thing that convinced me that Kohbee was scum. The day 1 vote. On March 30 2012 04:44 Cephiro wrote: Day 1 Vote History: Kohbee voted HiroPro Therapist voted Kohbee FourFace voted HiroPro KharadBanar voted Solohan50 marvellosity voted Solohan50 strongandbig voted Kohbee omnomMuffins voted FourFace marvellosity unvoted Solohan50 marvellosity voted FourFace FourFace unvoted HiroPro Kohbee unvoted HiroPro FourFace voted Therapist HiroPro voted omnomMuffins HiroPro unvoted omnomMuffins HiroPro voted Solohan50 Kohbee voted Solohan50 KharadBanar unvoted Solohan50 strongandbig unvoted Kohbee Solohan50 voted Kohbee marvellosity unvoted FourFace KharadBanar voted Therapist Kohbee voted Therapist FourFace unvoted Therapist FourFace voted Kohbee strongandbig voted Kohbee HiroPro unvoted Solohan50 HiroPro voted Therapist marvellosity voted Therapist FourFace unvoted Kohbee FourFace voted marvellosity Marvellosity voted solohan right after KB did, then unvoted him pretty soon afterward when omnom made her protest vote against fourface. Hiropro voted solohan in response to a post from kohbee (accidentally on his roommate's account) where kohbee said that he should vote for someone with more votes so mafia couldn't swing the vote. I actually don't know how I should lean on this end of things. So what am I going to conclude from this? First, there's the wifom argument trying to explain the killing. As marvellosity says, since hiropro knows I suspect marvellosity, killing omnom could make sense because he could get me to then lynch marv. Additionally, omnom said she was going to make a case against hiropro. However, hiropro has been making a case against omnom for basically the whole game. To me, it doesn't make sense for the mafia to kill the person they'd been making their case against, since they then have to start making a whole new case up for the last day and start trying to persuade people to join them. This is especially true since I probably could have been persuaded to vote against omnom if she had lived, since her play seemed pretty scummy. Other than that, there's hiro's post yesterday, which seems town-ish to me in light of omnom dying. The reason for this is that it undermines any case hiro would make today against either of us being scum. There's also the fact that marvellosity's analysis of the mafia's night kill seems similar to the argument about fourface's death, which I suspect was an attempt by mafia to frame kohbee, and to the post kohbee found suspicious on day 1 - as well as to the post by solohan about fourface's death. However, in Marvellosity's favor there's that inexplicable post by solohan, as well as the fact that omnom said he was going to make a case against hiropro. So right now, I'm leaning towards marvellosity being the last scum. But, I think it could be hiropro - I'm hesitant to trust this because I was so wrong in analyzing kohbee's behavior, but it doesn't seem to make sense for marvellosity to leave me alive if he's the scum, especially given that he then tries to get me to vote for hiropro and not the other way around. He knows it would be an uphill battle to convince me to vote for hiropro. Hiropro, a post from you going over your view of the game at this point would really be great. | ||
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