EPTVery interesting though.
I feel like I'm in a Poirot movie or something... "the murderer is among us - in this very room!"
Newbie Mini Mafia VI - Page 3
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
Very interesting though. I feel like I'm in a Poirot movie or something... "the murderer is among us - in this very room!" | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On April 10 2012 03:09 marvellosity wrote: So, this omnom killing seems to have thrown us into silence/confusion. I'm guessing whoever is town is confused and not sure what to think/analyse at the moment. I've been jotting down things in notepad, and I've realised I can't sit here in silence, because: a) if Hiro is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to lynch me with strongandbig's help, who has been suspecting me for much of the game b) if strongandbig is mafia, he could kill omnom and hope to bring Hiro over to his case against... me again. Now, for some reason mafia thought that killing omnom muffins would be the strongest move, principally because they thought they could get someone else lynched with someone else's help, saving themself. What I can't quite get my head around is that omnom was a good and likely lynch target for anyone involved, it's why this is so tricky. One thing I can think of is this: omnom clearly stated she was going to make a case against Hiro, and as she flipped townie, we can presume that clearly she meant to make a case. This is a decent reason for omnom to be the nightkill, especially given omnom's erratic posting pattern, the kill could occur before omnom made her case (as it indeed occurred). Taking this further into some if buts - Hiro leaves omnom alive, and kills me. omnom goes on to make her case against Hiro, which coupled with my previous case and subsequent death, would be fairly compelling evidence against Hiro. Or, Hiro kills s&b, leaving - me and omnom, both of whom have either already or are planning to make cases against Hiro. Hiro could also be heavily relying on s&b not taking any of this at any worth, because s&b would be thinking of me as mafia. If s&b was mafia, I can't see good enough reasoning for him not leaving omnom alive. This post has been a bit of a journey of discovery for me. But, based on: a) my previously made case vs Hiro b) s&b's longstanding suspicion of me c) omnom's suspicion of hiro and the nightkill only making sense from hiro's perspective, I firmly believe that HiroPro is scum. ##Vote: HiroPro A lot of this makes some amount of sense to me. However - I'm still not entirely convinced. Why would HiroPro have posted this yesterday, knowing that he was going to kill omnom? + Show Spoiler + On April 09 2012 08:56 HiroPro wrote: If I die, lynch omnom. Neither strong nor marvel look like mafia to me and omnom has been anti-town this entire game. Read my last couple of posts on omnom. I think this is it for me  I don't think this post makes sense if hiropro is going to kill omnom. It undermines any case he could make against either of us. He would have to rely on us making cases against each other. Now, it's possible that he would, since I've been suspicious of you and you indicated yesterday that you were suspicious of me. But (and here I am inserting how I would play into someone else's head again) it seems like that would be too risky compared to killing either one of us and trying to persuade the other one to go after omnommuffins. Actually, it seems to me that if hiro was the mafia, the best move would have been to kill you and then convince me that omnommuffins is the scum. Hiro has been pushing his case against omnom for basically the whole game, and it was a relatively convincing one imo. For the last five days, he's said pretty much daily that omnom is his guess for the second mafia. You say that because I've been suspicious of you, it makes sense for hiropro to kill omnom because then he could hope to persuade me to lynch you. That's true, so I really want to hear what hiropro has to say about the situation. However, that also smells a lot like the analysis you made on the fourface killing: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). ##Vote: Kohbee And the post that Kohbee pointed out in his pre-death post: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote: If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical. Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum? ... In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote: Bah. Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment. If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself. So we should know at the end of the night what is what. ... He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is. I also note that Solohan made the same sort of analysis: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. It sounds like fourface was killed because the mafia thought that it would help them convince town to lynch Kohbee. HOWEVER! Here's a post from solohan that makes me feel very uncertain about the idea that he and marvellosity could have been scum together: On April 05 2012 03:08 Solohan50 wrote: I probably should've done this on my last post, but ##Vote: Kohbee. At this point, it's either myself or Kohbee that are getting lynched today, and everyone knows where I stand. If Kohbee gets lynched and flips green/blue, then it's my nuts on the chopping block, most likely followed by marvellosity. If Kohbee flips red, then I think HiroPro is the next likely candidate. He's been relatively consistent in voting for me, he helped bandwagon Therapist at the end of Day 1, and seems to be defending Kohbee against my attacks. It's not an ironclad, bulletproof case, but that's what I think. With that said, carry on gentlemen. The next few hours should be interesting. If you do decide to lynch me, make sure the noose is an extra large one; my head is fairly large. Interesting note: this is the only time in the entire game that solohan mentioned either of you by name. It seems like it makes little sense for him to associate himself with his scumbuddy like this - to me, this post could be a point against hiropro and a point in marvellosity's favor. However, that becomes a bit of wifom analysis; kohbee had recently accused solohan and marvellosity of being the scum team together, and everyone's thoughts were leaning in that direction. So now we come to the thing that I focused on almost exclusively for the first few days of this game; the thing that convinced me that Kohbee was scum. The day 1 vote. On March 30 2012 04:44 Cephiro wrote: Day 1 Vote History: Kohbee voted HiroPro Therapist voted Kohbee FourFace voted HiroPro KharadBanar voted Solohan50 marvellosity voted Solohan50 strongandbig voted Kohbee omnomMuffins voted FourFace marvellosity unvoted Solohan50 marvellosity voted FourFace FourFace unvoted HiroPro Kohbee unvoted HiroPro FourFace voted Therapist HiroPro voted omnomMuffins HiroPro unvoted omnomMuffins HiroPro voted Solohan50 Kohbee voted Solohan50 KharadBanar unvoted Solohan50 strongandbig unvoted Kohbee Solohan50 voted Kohbee marvellosity unvoted FourFace KharadBanar voted Therapist Kohbee voted Therapist FourFace unvoted Therapist FourFace voted Kohbee strongandbig voted Kohbee HiroPro unvoted Solohan50 HiroPro voted Therapist marvellosity voted Therapist FourFace unvoted Kohbee FourFace voted marvellosity Marvellosity voted solohan right after KB did, then unvoted him pretty soon afterward when omnom made her protest vote against fourface. Hiropro voted solohan in response to a post from kohbee (accidentally on his roommate's account) where kohbee said that he should vote for someone with more votes so mafia couldn't swing the vote. I actually don't know how I should lean on this end of things. So what am I going to conclude from this? First, there's the wifom argument trying to explain the killing. As marvellosity says, since hiropro knows I suspect marvellosity, killing omnom could make sense because he could get me to then lynch marv. Additionally, omnom said she was going to make a case against hiropro. However, hiropro has been making a case against omnom for basically the whole game. To me, it doesn't make sense for the mafia to kill the person they'd been making their case against, since they then have to start making a whole new case up for the last day and start trying to persuade people to join them. This is especially true since I probably could have been persuaded to vote against omnom if she had lived, since her play seemed pretty scummy. Other than that, there's hiro's post yesterday, which seems town-ish to me in light of omnom dying. The reason for this is that it undermines any case hiro would make today against either of us being scum. There's also the fact that marvellosity's analysis of the mafia's night kill seems similar to the argument about fourface's death, which I suspect was an attempt by mafia to frame kohbee, and to the post kohbee found suspicious on day 1 - as well as to the post by solohan about fourface's death. However, in Marvellosity's favor there's that inexplicable post by solohan, as well as the fact that omnom said he was going to make a case against hiropro. So right now, I'm leaning towards marvellosity being the last scum. But, I think it could be hiropro - I'm hesitant to trust this because I was so wrong in analyzing kohbee's behavior, but it doesn't seem to make sense for marvellosity to leave me alive if he's the scum, especially given that he then tries to get me to vote for hiropro and not the other way around. He knows it would be an uphill battle to convince me to vote for hiropro. Hiropro, a post from you going over your view of the game at this point would really be great. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
Hiro has said very little in the last few days. However, your arguments about how we should interpret the night kills sound really scummy to me. Just like I believe fourface was killed in order to set up the frame on kohbee, it also seems like omnom could have been killed so that you could say "why would I do that?" Right now I'm reading filters. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On April 11 2012 07:20 marvellosity wrote: Oh good god. Of course I could bloody say "why would I do that". But how can you possibly believe that my chances in that situation would be higher than killing you? THAT is the question. Nothing more. I'll put it as a 2 parted, related question: 1) Would my chances as mafia of victory be higher in killing strongandbig and having my choice of wagon be higher than killing omnom and having to plead with the townsperson to win? a) yes b) no Conclusion: ... 2) Do you think I'm stupid enough to have thought that pleading a wifom case on the final day was a better play than killing you and lynching someone else during the final day? a) yes b) no Conclusion: ... Basically, do you think I'm an idiot? To reiterate one more time, I COULD HAVE set this up to say "why would I do that". But clearly my chances were far higher in killing strongandbig regardless. Well, Solohan was an idiot. Here's something else I found in his filter: On April 03 2012 01:33 Solohan50 wrote: I find it amusing that Kohbee is sitting here telling the entire thread who is scum, based off of who voted to lynch him. I would be more worried about some of the last-minute switches than I would about the people who thought you were scum from the start. A last minute vote-switch to the Therapist bandwagon would be the perfect place for scum to hide. It gives them all the credibility in the world, even if they have to miss out on the supposed "Cop". What better way to pretend you're not scum than to say "But I saved the Cop at the end?". | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
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##vote: hiropro | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
Fuck | ||
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strongandbig
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
lost the huge post i had ##vote: hiropro hiro's day 1 play did not seem town to me, he was too afraid to defend himself. unlike kohbee i don't think not giving a fuck that there's a vote on you is a sign of being town. also it makes absolutely no fucking sense for marvellosity to kill omnom. hiro and omnom had been accusing each other for days of being mafia. this is directed at all the townies in the obs thread who are gonna call me a moron if i get this wrong. screw all y'all. strongandbig out | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
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strongandbig
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strongandbig
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Marv you gotta admit solohan made you look pretty bad, all your cases were wifom and he did the exact same kind of wifom as you But the main reason I had such a hard time voting for hiro is that I felt so crappy about getting kohbee killed, and he was so sure that hiro was town. Anyway I feel like slightly less of an idiot now | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On April 11 2012 09:48 marvellosity wrote: Can I just give props to therapist for a moment... from the obs QT - Therapist. 04-04-2012 09:48 PM ET (US) Solohan and Hiropro are scum. Guarunteed. That was a week ago! Yeah pretty impressive. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On April 11 2012 10:15 Kohbee wrote: solohan is his friend irl remember. I doubt that is a completely self-created prediction. I find it really really really fucking ironic that you guys ending by lynching the guy you got me lynched over. I want to know strong, why did you think that hiropro was scum? In all honesty I think town won on a lucky guess by you and marvel because there was no logical reasoning for anything the 2 of you did. I'll post a big post with thoughts at the end of the game. Preview: KB and hiropro rule, everyone else sucks We'll have to agree to disagree. I still think your play made no sense either. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
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On April 12 2012 00:33 Kohbee wrote: listen, you can keep belittling my argument all you want and sweeping it under the rug but please don't tell me I fail to understand what happened. I will put it this way. Lets say that Hiropro had decided to kill strongandbig and then the entire day screamed at omnom that he would have killed omnom for an easy win and that he would have to be stupid to have killed strongandbig. If it played out like the last day did, you would have been lynched and hiropro would have won using WIFOM logic. I don't think that you realize that strongandbig did not KNOW you were town like you did. So the reason I decided to vote with Marvellosity was because the night kill of omnom really made no sense from his point of view. He said that several times, but I was already thinking it. At first I thought it didn't make sense from Hiro's point of view either, so I wasn't sure what to do; Hiro had been building his case on omnom up for quite some time, and omnom looked *really scummy* at that point. However, I eventually became convinced that if Marvellosity was mafia, he could have won easily by killing me. Hiropro and omnommuffins had been accusing each other for days, and all he would have to do is watch the sparks fly. On the other hand, Hiropro knew I'd been suspicious of Marvellosity - largely based on your last post, Kohbee, and on the similarities between his and Solohan's interpretations of why Fourface died. So for Hiropro, killing omnom would set back his own case on the last day, but it would leave me alive and give him a chance to make a stronger case against Marvellosity. Now, your only response when Marv and I explained this has been "that's wifom! Don't analyze night kills!" You keep saying that despite the fact that several veterans have come in here and said that in this case, analyzing the night kill made sense. I'll post this from the Mafia Wiki: Many times analyzing night kills is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died. This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected. At present, NK analysis is considered simply another possibly-reliable piece of evidence, neither useless nor authoritative. If you keep willfully ignoring this aspect of the game, your play will suffer from it. There are times when night kill analysis should be disregarded, and there are times when it should not. I also had been suspicious of Hiro since day 1, when he reacted so passively to your accusation. However, you kept insisting that was a "town reaction." Eventually, I decided to just go with my gut on that (and with fourface, who said that Hiro was "playing scared"). Finally, I decided that there was no way that Solohan would link himself and his scum buddy like he did in the "if kohbee flips blue" post I quoted on the last day. From what I'd learned about Solohan's play reading his one-page filter a bajillion times, his play could be characterized as "trying to manipulate the town but doing so badly." His frame-up of you for killing fourface was bad; I voted for you in spite of that, thinking that if you were scum then Solohan and Marvellosity were just really bad townies. Ditto the aggressive posts he made against you on other parts of the day. It was totally in line for him to have posted what boils down to "hey guys! I know I'm gonna get bussed but when I do you shouldn't vote for Hiropro!" I was hesitant to trust any of these pieces of evidence on its own, especially since Marvellosity's bandwagoning on day 1 and his posting similarities with Solohan on day two had already made me suspicious. However, all together they pushed me to vote for Hiropro. Believe what you will, I did not just vote together with the person who was the most excited about it (or "called my name the loudest" or however you put it). That would have been a whole fucking lot easier to decide, and I wouldn't have had to sprint back from dinner when my phone ran out of batteries because I would have voted like five hours earlier. | ||
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strongandbig
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