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Now for some reads.
First up, kohbee.
I stand by my read on Kohbee from day 1. His random vote on hiro was completely unjustified - hiro had done nothing scummy. Now as I said then, that could either e a town action or a scum action. For town, then it's trying to spark discussion by shocking us into action. However, it could also be a scum action - hoping that a noob town will bandwagon, leading to a mislynch; or an attempt by scum to distance themselves from each other. It would be a particularly good scum action, since there's a town explanation for it as well as a scum explanation, but the potential to causes mislynch in such a small game is a big advantage for scum. So, just from that action we don't know whether Kohbee is scum or town.
However! Two things about Kohbee's actions yesterday make it unlikely that he's town. First his response to therapist - if he was really trying to spark discussion then it makes no sense to respond simply "I don't talk to scum" to someone who pushes you. That reeks of someone hoping to get town to bandwagon, rather than someone who wants us all to talk and get information out there. Second, he claimed to be the cop. In my opinion it makes no sense for the cop to be the person who jumps out with a random early vote. The potential for backfiring is obvious: it could draw attention from town, if they follow my initial analysis that the random vote could be either scummy or town, and it could draw heat from mafia if you start to look like a town leader, and get you shot. Pulling all that risk onto yourself as blue on day 1 makes no sense for town.
Kohbee is scum.
Reads on other players will come later, after my conference call - maybe at lunch time.
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More reads!
These are going to be a bit more wishy-washy. There's less information on a lot of these people.
Omnom - I don't get the same scum vibe off of him that some other people seem to. I think that if I were in the same situation as he was (tired, frustrated after a hard day that he didn't expect to be so difficult, etc) then I would have responded in much the same way to the hugely annoying argument between fourface and kohbee.
HOWEVER - this doesn't mean he's town. He's been posting a ton since the end of his tournament - his filter is longer than mine, despite not being able to pay attention to the thread for like the first third of it - and a lot of his posts are filler or arguing with people. Therefore, unsure - leaning town-ish
Solohan
The toughie of the group today.
He doesn't post much, which is something that people seem to be treating as a mafia tell.
However, when he does post, he takes a strong stand. That's not very much of a scum tell.
He has nine posts, all of which are in this thread. He could be scum, but he also might not be.
Unsure - leaning scummy?
hiropro
Nope, not much of a read here either. Don't think he's scum. His day 1 actions don't add up (unless he and kohbee are both scum, but I think that's unlikely.)
unsure - leaning townie
Marvellosity
His day 1 vote flipflops were kind of suspicious, and I don't think he's made it back from that yet.
All that said!
As I've said countless times, in the same case I've been making since day 1, I think Kohbee is scum.
##vote: Kohbee
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Kohbee, I read your responses.
Everyone will have to make up their own mind, but I am not persuaded by your explanation of your actions towards hiropro.
In large part that's due to a gut feeling that there was nothing specific about hiropro that would lead you to focus so intently on him early, as well as the other things I said earlier.
Additionally, there's another possibility which I hadn't considered earlier - that you and hiro could both be scum, and the random vote was an early distance attempt. This is added to by the fact that I don't see why "not caring that someone is voting for you" is a town reaction, especially in a newbie game. I guess that could be a matter of style, so it could be town, but I'm not sure why such a meek reaction would have placated you when you were drilling so hard at hiro.
That said - I agree that if you do turn out to be blue, then marvellosity looks very suspicious. I tend to prefer analyzing actions to words (this is the first forum mafia game I've played, so I wouldn't know what to do with meta even if we had some), so obviously his questionable day 1 puts him on my radar. There are other things about his actions that would smell bad if you do flip blue, as well - his analysis of how people opposed to you "wound up dead" would then smell like a relatively heavy-handed mafia frame-up.
At this moment we have five town and two mafia left alive. If today does turn out to be a mislynch, assuming a successful hit then tomorrow will be three town and two mafia, aka LYLO. However, I think we will be able to find at least one mafia at that time. I also don't think we will have a mislynch.
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On April 05 2012 02:43 KharadBanar wrote:
After reading everyone's thoughts about Kohbee, I have to say he still doesn't look that scummy to me. I am still in favor of a lynch against Solohan50, especially since Kohbee really took our advice to heart and is now posting regularly and with some thought behind his statements. He still hasn't confirmed himself town through his actions, but I have the feeling he's getting there. Solohan50 on the other hand has again posted once solely to defend against Kohbee's and my accusation and has been missing since. I'll say it again: If he's not scum, him getting lynched is absolutely no loss to town with his behaviour.
With only one mislynch left until LYLO, we can't afford to think like that.
Solohan's posting style rings true for me with his claim about his motivations. When you look at his account, he only has 11 posts and they're all on this thread. It seems likely that he's someone who got brought in to TL by a friend to play a mafia game, so it also makes sense that he would get kind of jaded when that friend gets lynched as collateral damage day 1 to a fight between the two most prolific posters.
That said - I just reread his brief filter again, and something seemed kind of off to me. Specifically, his use of "kohbee and fourface fought and now fourface is dead" as evidence against kohbee. This could be true, but if kohbee is not mafia then the mafia could have chosen to kill kohbee as part of a frameup.
I still think kohbee is mafia, but I'm starting to see the logic behind saying "if kohbee flips blue then solohon is a suspect."
However, I continue to see many other people as also suspicious.
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What a weird fucking situation.
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I insist that Kohbee's play made no sense to me.
However, it obviously made sense to other people, so maybe I'm wrong. Could be either way, and since he's not here to defend himself I'm gonna stop dissing on him.
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On April 05 2012 09:50 KharadBanar wrote:
Which means I'm going to explain my town read on him later on (there's a reason for this, trust me guys :O)
If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though.
Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts:
From Marvellosity:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote:
Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter.
You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move.
The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me).
Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast.
Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him.
##Vote: Kohbee
From solohan50:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote:
KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following:
- He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim).
- One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched.
- Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more.
The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia.
Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't.
However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often).
I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50.
Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide.
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Ugh, just noticed a problem with my argument in my last post.
After KB, marvellosity was the second person to jump on the "lunch a lurker" bandwagon against solohan.
This could have been a distancing gambit, but it does throw a wrench into the analysis. What we have to decide is, would marvellosity have believed that there was a realistic chance for solohan to get lynched day 1 for lurking? (Assume for now that if solohan is scum, he was in communication with his buddy despite being afk. Maybe with a smartphone. I think that if one scum actually thought the other scum wasn't going to post that day, he probably wouldn't try to start a lurker lynch bandwagon on him.) Depending on how risky of a move it would have seemed, we can maybe figure out the chance that one scum would join that incipient bandwagon on another.
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Okay that took me totally by surprise. I thought KB was town but I actually thought someone else was the second blue.
That was some really fucking impressive foresight by KB. I did think he might get killed since people were saying he was town, but people have said that about myself, and hiropro as well.
So! I've had a few beers at the moment, so I won't be posting much analysis tonight. I also need to think some more about what this means for us as a town.
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Let me post a few thoughts now.
First, we should lynch solohan. If it were just me, then I wouldn't be 100% confident in my read of him as scummy. However, since Kohbee did flip blue and was so confident in his read, and since there are some pretty good arguments other than just "he feels scummy" for him being scum, I'm going to stick with that vote.
We need to get a successful lynch. If we do that, then after the night kill tonight it will be LYLO again at 2 town 1 mafia, but at least the remaining town will have one more night's worth of data to identify the last mafia.
The only thing that worries me is the Monty Hall problem. We know that solohan is not the mafia goon. This means that from a purely statistical point of view, he has only a 25% chance of being mafia whereas for the rest of us there is a 40% chance of being mafia. (I know this sounds like a paradox, but it's not. It's a classic high school math team problem, google monty hall paradox for more.)
However, I still think we should lynch him. Mafia isn't a game of hoping to get lucky; it's a game of making reads and educated guesses. It seems like our collective best educated guess is that solohan is mafia.
So my current thinking for who is the second mafia.
First, we have the question of the day 1 lynch. As I said waay back in the thread (it was in my "if kohbee flips town" analysis post), I don't think that mafia could give up the chance for a completely free lynch of someone who just claimed a blue role, especially on day 1. However, in my opinion that chance was only open to FourFace and Hiropro. Either of those two could have kept their vote on kohbee and allowed him to die, then claimed they were afk for the hour between his last-minute claim and the voting deadline. So I don't think that hiro is scum.
Additionally, on day 2 hiro voted for solohan instead of kohbee, which made it a 4-3 vote instead of a 5-2 vote. If we believe solohan is actually mafia, then this makes no sense - it would allow one last-minute switch to lynch the other mafia member instead of the claimed cop. So I agree with kohbee's last post, if solohan is mafia it doesn't make sense for hiropro to be the other mafia.
That said, I actually thought up until the death of KB that hiro was the second blue role. His play on day 1 in response to the accusation from kohbee seemed more passive than I would have expected from a vanilla townie. His posting hasn't been all that town-ey, as pointed out by marvellosity - hiro hasn't done much to scum hunt. However, his voting record is enough to clear him, IMO. As I've said before, I'm more comfortable at the moment analyzing actions rather than words.
So that leaves omnommuffins and marvellosity.
omnom's posts were pretty aggressive towards kohbee. However, they were no more aggressive than mine, and IMO they could easily be explained as coming from someone who had just had a hard day and then had to deal with the kohbee vs fourface flame war of death.
However, I find it a bit suspicious that omnom tried to get us to find and lynch the "mafia killer" instead of solohan. I feel like someone who's played so much IRL mafia would know that the mafia always get a kill, even if they have other roles. (Unless she's claiming that in her irl mafia games the mafia doctor or cop don't get to kill anyone if they're the only person left, which I would think would be a really odd rule for a game of mafia.) And also, it should be super-obvious that we need to make the clearest lynch no matter what, since this is LYLO; so anyone saying we shouldn't lynch the most probable mafia is pretty suspicious.
Marvellosity, on the other hand, has a couple of major points against him imo: first, his flip-floppy voting on day 1, and second, the multiple times he's tried to tell us how we should interpret the mafia's night kills. (Specifically, I'm referring here to the posts of mine and Kohbee's that were quoted by KB in his last will and testament.)
So for now I think that the most likely candidate for second mafia, assuming we decide to lynch solohan (which I I think we should) and that he flips red (which I think he will), would be marvellosity.
However, I'm not confident enough in that read to feel like I have the thing sewn up. Marvellosity posted his case against hiropro just above; I'd like to see a response to it from hiropro.
I'd also like to hear what everyone else thinks about who the mafia might be, and about what everyone has said so far.
Basically, we could just gamble on what we have and go for it, but more information would be better! Let's get our posting on, people!
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So as far as I can tell, we have the following setup for the second mafia.
Hiropro says it's omnommuffins.
I say it's probably marvellosity but I'm not sure.
Marvellosity says it's hiropro.
Omnommuffins who do you think the remaining mafia player is? It would be good to have your opinion. I've read through your posts in this thread since the Kohbee lynch, and I don't see anything from you on that.
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On April 08 2012 04:56 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2012 04:07 strongandbig wrote:
So as far as I can tell, we have the following setup for the second mafia.
Hiropro says it's omnommuffins.
I say it's probably marvellosity but I'm not sure.
Marvellosity says it's hiropro.
Omnommuffins who do you think the remaining mafia player is? It would be good to have your opinion. I've read through your posts in this thread since the Kohbee lynch, and I don't see anything from you on that. Grats for totally ignoring my point on the voting on Day 1. I'm starting to think you're doing so wilfully. In the meantime ##Vote: Solohan50
When you voted for Therapist it was 3-3.
That's not the same kind of "free" lynch as I was talking about before.
What I meant was when someone could claim to not have read the roleclaim from kohbee.
You would have had to vote for kohbee after he roleclaimed.
Anyway my feeling is not only based on that.
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Okay wait that's wrong, it was 4-2
Anyway the point is that you still hadn't voted when kohbee claimed his role. I was talking about people who could safely claim to have not seen him claim.
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My point is that you couldn't just do nothing. You had to either save him or not save him, thereby killing him. If you did the latter, it would have been obvious that you killed him after he claimed that he was the cop. If you did anything other than save him, it would have been suspicious.
When I say that people who turned down the "free lynch" are less suspicious, I mean people who didn't have to act. You had to act or else you would have been modkilled.
The mafia motivation is that it makes more sense for mafia to save the cop, thereby gaining town cred, and then roleblock him, than it does for mafia to publicly kill him after he made his roleclaim. The only time it makes sense for mafia to have him lynched after his roleclaim is if they can do it through inaction.
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On April 08 2012 08:19 Solohan50 wrote:
##Vote: strongandbig
Thanks, man.
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Do you still not understand what I'm saying? How is that possible...
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To clarify yet again: you had to respond to kohbee's roleclaim, since you had not voted yet.
Fourface and hiropro didn't have to do anything after he claimed.
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As I've said, saving him would have been the correct scum action IMO.
As for going after him the next day, I need to think some more about how that all went down. Obviously since I also went after him, I believe that there was a town rationale for doing so. However, that doesn't mean there wasn't also a scum rationale for it.
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EPT
