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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX - Page 25

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Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 28 2012 02:20 GMT
#481
Before we forget, let's remember the suspicions of the fallen townies. The benefit of this is that it's guaranteed not to intentionally lead to wrong targets. Since so many posts have been made I'm really not sure of anyone anymore, so I'd rather go by anecdotals. Post in spoilers;
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 10:50 Seviro wrote:
OK, I don'T have much time before my lynch so I'll try to make it fast and clear. Maybe you'll give more credit to what say when you'll stop assuming i'm scum.

I'll give you my present thought on the mafia team since it is the last time I can make any claim.

First thing first, based on the recents post, i'm less and less sure that Nova is a scum. The main point against him is his meta shift from last game which don'T say much since it was his first game and in the everyone was thinking he was a scum because of his play style. I'll say there's 60% chance of him flipping scum.

My main suspect at 95% sure in my opinion is, as you may know, Micaelthe. I said about all I had to say about him but i'll talk about his vote switch.
He switched his vote now when it was clear for everyone that I was being lynched. I think that since my death can tell a lot about him (see Mementoss post about it), it was best for him to kill nova since his death doesn't tell anything about him. Also, he add that he'd want at least 6 vote so that scum don'T ninja switch and cancel the lynch which doesn'T make sense since there was 6 vote on me at the time. And for those who think that he wouldn't have made a case on me if he was scum, a lot of people were already suspicious about me so he just tried to get the train rolling (in which he succeeded).

My second suspect which I am 80% sure is BlueyD. As Nova mentionned, after a good start of trying to get discussion roll, he kinda fell out of sight and didn't add anything useful. He did follow the bandwagon on me and nova, adding that I was taking credit for something that I didn'T did, which I refuted by adding the 3 post where I was actually doing what I was claiming. Post at which he answered by:


+ Show Spoiler +
On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote:
Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts:

Show nested quote +
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.


Show nested quote +
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.


Show nested quote +
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.


Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4.

Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did.

Never try to defend me, by the way.


Post at which I didn't respond since I though it was obviously fake fact but some people seemed to agree with it so here is some clarification.

Show nested quote +
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.


Show nested quote +
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.


Show nested quote +
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.


See, when we bold what actually matters it takes another sense. But I don'T blame you, it was a trend in this game to take my word out of context and ignoring important part of my posts.

Now for the third, I think he is among Virtu or Ninja4ever. I don'T have anything to back my claim but I feel like they are lurking too easily.

By the way mafia, you did a great job of making me feel scummy, so great job in fact that the vote is unanimous so good job on that.


With that said, don't take what I said here for the truth but please investigate enough to make yourself an opinion. with 3 scum and 4 townie left after the night, the bandwagon can easily go in a wrong way.

I put my fate into your hand Town Fellow. Avenge my death and win this for me please.


Cheers, Good luck Good game, I follow this closely and I hope my death won't be in vain.

I don'T think I'll post again so peace out, love you all :D (except scum team obiously).

Adding to that, I'd like to point out again I find Ninja4ever more suspicious than Virtu simply based on that Virtu came back to vote despite family issues, which I find to be more likely for town than for mafia. It's mildly WIFOM, but so is everything in this game. That doesn't mean Ninja4ever is neccesarily mafia, but it does make Virtu greener than him.

At this point I'm fairly convinced that Michaelthe has to die. Regarding MichaelThe's recent post: Not impressed. His style of play from the start of the game to the middle of the game changed so much that I have to presume there's been some communication between him and the mafia team that has made him shape up his play. I'm pretty sure that he knows he's doomed, so the reason for his post can only be to cover up the mafia. This leads me to believe either Mementoss or Nova. I highly doubt both of them as that'd be too much of a risk, but I find one of them being Mafia fairly likely. I find Mementoss somewhat hard to read but he does have a green aura around him. The two big red exclamation marks though are the response to Michaelthe's post, which he answered to by indicating he made a lapse of judgement;
1.
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.

Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me.

Even though we do think michael is mafia, his post was such a clear bad play that I find it highly unlikely it was a mafia ploy. If anything, I think it might've been double mindgames now (a plan so silly they can't help but think I'm town) which would be fairly ingenous.
2. Gossmerr pointed out that Mementoss is making connections between players, whereas earlier in the game he said:
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote:
Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.

A clear contradiction. Mementoss, please explain.
These posts are the chink in Mementoss' otherwise good posting record, but in general he's been a lot more helpful than Nova, so I'd suspect Nova more. The amount of effort Mementoss also puts into his posts still at this point in the game seem more like a desperate attempt to still get victory out of the claws of defeat rather than a play you really need to do as Mafia at this point. The chance of Town still coming back into this is fairly unlikely (though possible, keep your chins up guys!) which means Mafia would most likely go into minimal posting mode as to not screw a win up.

BlueyD's case is shown excellently in Mementoss' post. Also suggesting that I might survive the night seems a bit silly, as I feel there's an almost zero chance on that. I also don't like the suggestion of lynching immediately tomorrow as it's MYLO tomorrow, but I'll expand on that a bit later in this post. He's also agreed with michael a lot and although that doesn't neccesarily say everything, it does raise some flags as Michael was still in the clear during all of this.

Nova_Terra has been all over the place, earlier mostly posting short responses to everything, and later on started analyzing a bit more. This change in behaviour is suspicious at least, even though it was called for, any behavior change during a game of Mafia should be watched closely. The activity of all of Nova's posts also cluttered up the thread quite a bit and confusion is good for Mafia. I'll give him points for not immediately jumping on my case though, and he's the suspect I'm the least sure of. Given his many opinions, this case will become more clear as townies die at night as he had a lot of opinions and is therefore the best candidate to lynch last.

Gossemerr seems fairly green, though somewhat inactive. He scrutinizes posts but uses good logic for it. He hasn't posted too much though which is a shame as especially now town will really need him to be active. I wouldn't blindly trust him just yet, not until some more analysis is done. What he has said however makes sense so I'm leaning town on him.

Ninja4ever I have absolutely no read on. He simply hasn't put in the effort to really analyze cases. He did oppose Nova_Terra fairly early when Seviro was on the chopping block which leads me to believe that if Nova is mafia, Ninja is not, and the opposite. This because Nova was not even close to getting lynched and his case put him on the map. Since if we mislynch we lose anyway, the benefit we get out of this knowledge is that if Nova flips red, Ninja is probably not mafia, and the other way around. Plays fairly defensive and reactionary, but so did Seviro and I feel it's more a preferred style then a mafia tell.

MYLO:
Tomorrow will be MYLO. The usual standard during MYLO is to not lynch anyone so that less suspects are left. Given that there will be no confirmed townies left after my death, I'd advocate for a no lynch and get more information out, and analyze with the thought of MichaelThe flipping scum. The benefit of waiting a night is that one potential townie will die. The field being thinned out is a good thing in this case since it won't lose us a day. MYLO is the only situation in which it's a good idea to no lynch, and I advocate everyone to not lynch during the next day.

So, who do we lynch Master Artanis?
Well, let's start with MichaelThe.
Follow it up with BlueyD.
And end on Nova_Terra

Those are my three biggest suspects right now. Nova's lynch is the most meta though, so having more dead players could provide additional information regarding whether it's the right choice.

And with that, I must depart this town for the gates of Valhalla.
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 28 2012 02:55 GMT
#482
Mafia Win condition- The mafia wins when they equal or outnumber the remaining townies or nothing can keep that from happening.

Right now its 5-3, in about 10 minutes it will be 4-3. We cannot no-lynch or town loses. Since there is a case on me now, I think mafia will definitly kill Artanis, gg, you were helpful overall to the town. Michael will then try to push me tommorrow. We need three correct lynches in a row. Focus on them one scum at a time. We can do this. Will brush my teeth and come back to see if I am actually still alive later. Will reply to posts on me tommorrow if nessecary.

Night all.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 28 2012 03:01 GMT
#483
Day 3

[image loading]

soundtrack


Things are getting weirder, a planet zooms by the lab, explodes in a kaleidoscope of color, and then reassembles itself again before exploding. A green and blue planet flashes into view, and then breaks up into rocks as it surface boils with mushroom clouds and then cracks, into wide rifts.

Suddenly the lab is right before the walls of a city, in a desert, around it swarm hundreds of what can only be zombies, inside two men crackle maniacally, before quickly vanishing from view. The time anchor glows, more and more intensely, the annoying hum has grown louder. Outside, more and more events flash by, a spire of cold iron with a thousand thorns loaded with writhing victims, before sinking back into the earth and becoming a town.

Something must happen soon, things are getting... stranger. By the time the furor at the outside events die out, someone is missing. Gossemerr was missing. Only his skeleton was found in his room, his flesh apparently rotted off, the only evidence of the cause of death a rusted handle, apparently belonging to a knife.

Gossemerr the Vanilla Townie has been murdered!


Day 3, yadda, yadda, yadda, 48 hours to lynch!


Moderator
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 28 2012 03:01 GMT
#484
Ah, since I'm not dead yet, I thought it was MYLO tomorrow. If it's LYLO, you'll want to lynch obviously.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 28 2012 03:01 GMT
#485
Wait what?
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 28 2012 03:03 GMT
#486
What the fuck
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
BlueyD
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada437 Posts
March 28 2012 03:03 GMT
#487
Whaaaaaaaat... How are you both still here?!
Zealot Chaaaaarge!
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 28 2012 03:06 GMT
#488
Wellll...
Let's get this shit started.
##Vote: Michaelthe
Gossemerr
Profile Joined April 2011
United States195 Posts
March 28 2012 03:07 GMT
#489
LOL. GL town. Get those scum..
<3
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 28 2012 04:43 GMT
#490
just woke up and i wanted to see who died really badly.
Why? because i had a little theory that might help if we have any blue role left. which is still a low chance. BUT.
I was thinking what if mafia HAD a power role. if they did, its quite probable that we had at least 2 blues, as there was no power role for mafia last game and there was 1 blue. we already have one this game, and he is almost confirmed town. I started to think about who the mafia would kill, and i rested on mementoss or artanis, being the most pro town. BUT. if the mafia thought there could be a medic, those would be the two LEAST wanted targets as they are most likely to be healed. and the only reason that mafia would suspect a medic is because they may have a power role. And who died? gossemerr.
Therefore, if there is any blue left, pretty much meaning a DT, please note there could be a godfather or a framer.
As i am onboard with the michaelthe lynch, i will start off and end this day right.
##Vote: michaelthe
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
BlueyD
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada437 Posts
March 28 2012 04:53 GMT
#491
Monster post time!

Okay, I said I’d post analysis on ninja, Virtu and Gossemer. Gossemer is dead, though... I’ll see what I can tell from his death.

Before that, though, let’s get this out of the way:

##Vote: Michaelthe

----------
On ninja4ever:

I mostly want him to stop parroting and post some analysis of his own at this point. He’s been lurking and just putting his vote on who’s the next lynch all game long, and getting away with it. I add that I don’t have to be scum in order for his parroting behavior to be suspicious, he just has to know who’s scum and who’s townie, and jump on whatever bandwagon targets the wrong people... which is apparently those I’m in, every single time. -_-

Yeah, so this has all been said. Sue me. Still I have a question, and I hope he finally replies with something worth reading... To ninja: Assuming we get a scum today, who would you then lynch day 4, and why?

My take on ninja4ever: null leaning scum.
----------

On Virtu:

Our other lurker. I went through the whole filter looking to see what it looked like... The last reason for his inactivity seems believable, he even asked a mod if he could be subbed out. And then he came back for the vote. There was no comment on seviro/nova we can work with.

There was a bit of an inconsistency no one caught early on to justify his inactivity, though, but it’s not enough to build a case around it. See these two posts for yourself: MLG is good for activity, then it’s bad.
Nice to see this started before MLG weekend, will be watching plenty of MLG so should have time to be active.

I'm slightly more inactive than I'd like to be, I joined after GMarshal said that we most likely wouldn't start until after the end of MLG under the presumption that this would be the case, but as it's started before, MLG has taken up most of my attention so far.

Go figure... I like that he’s targeted guys other than those we ended up lynching, though, and the MLG thing seems very minor to me. He seems to have his own opinion. He’s less suspicious than ninja4ever to me.

----------

This was to be Gossemer’s section, but now he’s dead.


Here was how I thought night lynches would go: Artanis would be night hit first and mementoss next night, or the opposite. Either way, they would be the next 2 night hits. If somehow things didn’t go this way, I figured Artanis would die and mementoss would live, in which case I would get to ask mementoss why he’s still alive. Until then he seemed to me like dead-man-walking, an assessment he agreed with for a time before changing his mind, so I figured I’d let it go and hold off on analysis since he would likely die in the next 2 nights and our only day target before that was already decided.

Turns out both are still alive after night 1, which was totally unexpected for me. I’m going to say that this is because both are useful for mafia’s purposes right now, whereas Gossemer wasn’t. Both are aiming for michaelthe, then for me – If you’re mafia, this point of view is a very useful one to keep alive at least until more people are convinced, since I’m town. (I realize this won’t convince anyone, but I’m just telling you what’s running through my head at the moment.) Gossemer was aiming for michaelthe but didn’t comment on me after the Seviro lynch, preferring to aim for... mementoss.

I don’t have a case on mementoss right now, but he’s back on the suspicions list. I’ll read what others have written on him again tomorrow, go through filters, etc... See if the case stands up or doesn’t at all.
Zealot Chaaaaarge!
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 28 2012 04:53 GMT
#492
EBWOP: Artanis, why do you think that i should be the third lynch? I was the first to call out blueys behavior and i *may* have tunneled him earlier. Wouldnt it make more sense for the third lynch to go on ninja/virtu?
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 28 2012 11:49 GMT
#493
Alright I don't really understand the night kill, so let me go through a couple situations I thought of. WIFOM.

Virtu seemed like the obvious pick. Why wouldn't you want to kill someone thought up as "confirmed" townie? This label helps town eliminate someone who is off there radar for scum hunting.

A) Virtu's claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical.
-> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost.

B) Mafia thinks we have a Medic.
-> I don't why they think we have a medic but if they did they would know if they went after the obvious kills pointed out by the town the medic would have a 50% chance of saving them, putting them in an awkward situation. Mafia went with an unobvious choice to solidify there lead.

C) Mafia is trying to confuse us.
-> Mafia was in trouble after at least 2/3 of there members were labelled suspicious. Leading some sort of propaganda that puts doubt on Artanis a bit, but more than not me, Mementoss. I have been getting some heat lately, and Seviro mentioned a quick point out on some inconsistencies, and then was lynched. Gossemerr, mentioned me, and then was night killed. Its a little WIFOM that they are trying to put in the back of peoples minds to try and strengthen that I am scum. Most likely option.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 28 2012 11:53 GMT
#494
I am so mad at myself for missing this before Gossemerrs death.

" Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you."
-It would have been a good opinion to hear. -_-. To answer it now, I haven't lost all suspicion in Nova, I just find him less suspicious than the ones I labelled above. I am keeping on an eye on him, but will see if I find anything on him after we kill michael.

And before I forget,

##Vote: michaelthe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
virtu
Profile Joined November 2010
United Kingdom147 Posts
March 28 2012 12:29 GMT
#495
On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote:
Alright I don't really understand the night kill, so let me go through a couple situations I thought of. WIFOM.

Virtu seemed like the obvious pick. Why wouldn't you want to kill someone thought up as "confirmed" townie? This label helps town eliminate someone who is off there radar for scum hunting.

A) Virtu's claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical.
-> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost.


My Claim? please clarify then I can respond whilst I have time.
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 28 2012 12:39 GMT
#496
[image loading]

EBWOP: Replace Virtu with Artanis.

I had Virtu on my mind cause I wanted to mention that if possible could he read up on the thread and post some sort of analysis if possible.

God Damnit brain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
virtu
Profile Joined November 2010
United Kingdom147 Posts
March 28 2012 13:31 GMT
#497
Okay.

So I'll leave an explanation as to my absence from this thread in a spoiler (for those that hate "life story" things);

+ Show Spoiler +
My sister works as a paramedic, in the early hours of Sunday night she was called out to an incident in the town centre, she and her fellow co-worker were attacked by a 'gang' of male youths and left hospitalized in quite a bad way. I've spent the last 2 days with her and she's stabalized, back at work today with 2 days of work to catch up on, when I get home tonight I should have time to make a post or two.


After explaining this to the powers that be I was asked if I could continue playing instead of a replacement being used, which I agreed to. I'll just say it now, I'm Vanilla Town. I won't be able to contribute as much as I'd like to and I don't want my unfortunate situation to affect the Town's chances of winning by being lynched due inactivity. At the very least i'll make sure I don't get modkilled, at the most i'll analyze and post about everyone still alive. Extremely sad my first game of mafia has been like this, been lurking reading full mafia games for a while.

I have a lot of reading to catch up on from the thread and I'll try and post my thoughts tonight, Town we can still win this with some good play.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 28 2012 14:37 GMT
#498
On March 28 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote:
A) Artanis' claim is fake, and/or mafia had a night vig for 2kp night one somehow. It seemed weird how the kill flavour were both identical.
-> Our whole game thus far has been based on this one claim, it's closed setup and we have no idea how many of what roles there are. It seems like a mistake in a closed game to make this assumption. However, it is too risky to go back on what we have already decided to be truth. Therefore, if A) is true we the town have already lost.

There is no chance that my claim can be fake at this point unless we have a vigilante that still hasn't spoken up, which I would find extremely unlikely given that it'd be a 1 for 1 trade at worst the previous day. In a closed setup, all potential roles are given and there is no additional Mafia kill role listed. It's also said that the kill flavor wouldn't provide any clues.
This is a semi-open setup, that is, exact role counts will not be known, but the possible roles will be known. All roles presented here are not necessarily in the game, but no roles not included here are present.


Regarding virtu, sucks to hear man, best of luck to your sister.

Regarding the night kill:
The only thing that explains it is if my analysis is correct and they want to create doubt. If they killed me, this would have no influence on Mementoss' position, nor that of mine since it'd prove my analysis. By killing Gossemerr they're creating doubt on Mementoss, plus Gossemerr was a good townie that just didn't post too much. They could've feared that he'd expand on his analysis and lock down on the mafia players.

With michaelthe, I'm pretty sure we have a mafia at this point. I don't think Mafia would be trying to pull tricks on us if he wasn't, because they know it's still neccesary. However, the only one that was really pushing against Mementoss was Gossemerr, which despite all WIFOM should be taken seriously.

@Nova_Terra; I'm advocating your lynch depending on who dies. I'd expand on that but that could make mafia change their targets based on if you're mafia or not, so I'll let the town decide on that since I'm pretty sure I won't be alive for the final lynch, if we get that far. You may have accused BlueyD, but it was weak at best and there was no real risk of him getting lynched at that point. The overall posting record is more important.

michaelthe
Profile Joined February 2010
United States359 Posts
March 28 2012 14:41 GMT
#499
Obviously there is a lot of suspicion on me today. If anyone has anything new to ask, I will continue to offer more. I think my reasons for every move were clear. I will re-summarize later.

But right now, we should look at the night kill.

Mafia has two options with night kills:
1) Kill someone random. The idea here is to give zero info. I think this was the case on night one.
2) Kill someone posting content. This is made to throw off the town. It adds a bit of confusion. This seems to be the case tonight.

Right now, there are two questions: 1) Why was Goss targeted? 2) Why WASNT Mementoss or Artanis targeted.

There are only a few things that come to mind for Goss:
I attacked him some on day 2. He was then suspicious of me.
He made claims against me and mementoss:

On March 27 2012 12:24 Gossemerr wrote:
I need to post something before I go away for a while, as it REALLY bothers me:

Mementoss, the apparently super green townie
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2012 21:38 Mementoss wrote:
If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra.
If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.


Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote:

Show nested quote +
On March 22 2012 23:38 Mementoss wrote:
Another thing I learned from last game and I think Nova_Terra will agree with me is, making connections (or anti-connections) between players is absolutely useless until the town flips its first scum. Keep track of it for all means, just no need to post it until scum is flipped and it can be used with case analysis (can't stand alone as a case). Cause you can literally find these connections between most players, its just the nature of the game, and the town trying to work as a team.


He clearly states that we should not be adding connections above, very clearly actually. Also he did this same thing last game at the same time, when the next day would be a lynch or lose situation. If we lynch wrong D3 we lose already, unless there are more blues (but I don't think so as there was only one last game). notice how, Seviro flipped town.. If he is scum, this would be another smart play to make sure the game is won. All of us remaining town really need to read and analyze tonight. If you are scared to post because you might be murdered, just post with like <5 minutes left or whatever before the night post (I will probably do the same in case I die tomorrow as well).

##FoS: Mementoss


On March 28 2012 07:35 Gossemerr wrote:

Moving on I would like to add some stuff on michaelthe:

Show nested quote +
On March 27 2012 14:16 michaelthe wrote:
Player List
    1.) Mementoss
    2.) Seviro - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 2
    3.) Artanis[Xp]
    4.) sc2system - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1
    5.) virtu
    6.) Nova_Terra
    7.) michaelthe
    8.) Rise Of Fenix - a Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 1
    9.) Gossemerr
    10.) Ninja4ever.
    11.) BlueyD
    12.) froggynoddy - a Vanilla Townie - Murdered Night 1


Crazy. Self voting and going afk made it look clearly like a mafia move, but there will be plenty of time for that later.

We will most likely be at 4 Town 3 Mafia tomorrow (pending vet/doc chance).

This is a MYLO tomorrow, and will be even if we hit a mafia each lynch, assuming they get a townie each night.

Forget single cases and single suspicions. We need to each go over everyone with a fine tooth comb.

I have a busy day tomorrow, but will try and get something out before the end of night.


What the heck? Why even post this, all useless, especially the list. And plenty of time for going over Seviro's self-vote later? Why? There is not point in dwelling on this when we could be finding your buddies. Now for the bold part. What does this even mean? We need to lynch a scum first before we can connect them to others. Why waste time going over everyone when we can make the strongest case and get a scum lynch, then move forward.

You will die tomorrow.



Obviously, a Goss kill would be risky for either me or mementoss if we were mafia... but being obvious, WIFOM...

I also saw this last content post:
On March 28 2012 09:21 Gossemerr wrote:
@ Mem: you didn't respond to my question about Nova.

@Artanis: I feel the same way as your first sentence. If Mem is scum its over, he is too green in everyone's eyes.


Again, would be odd for Mementoss to target Goss, knowing we would look at this, but again WIFOM. I would just suggest we don't bury his content posts from last night- including this:

On March 28 2012 07:35 Gossemerr wrote:
@Mem:

Show nested quote +
On March 27 2012 20:49 Mementoss wrote:
We want people to keep the discussion up or the town is doomed. Don't worry about dieing, worry about saying something that leads to a scum kill after your death. Honestly, I don't think anyone should be worried about dieing. There are only two possible mafia kills in my eyes.
1. Artanis
2. Mementoss

Probably not me anymore because I am thought of as less green than before by a couple townies.



Um, how would you know this?
Also, yeah that underlined bit may not be so pro-town, but I remember last game where someone said that they were going to wait until after the night kill to post their case so they would not get killed (I don't remember who). So, basically I just meant don't be afraid to post, because we really need it. Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you.


Who Wasn't Targeted:
If both are town, Mementoss or Artanis were obvious targets. Mementoss suggested that maybe Artanis is somehow actually scum. I find this a bit weak. I can post why, but pretty much the game would be too skewed.

I don't know why Artanis wasn't shot. Killing a confirmed town is pretty obviously beneficial to scum.
1) Artanis' analysis could be off, meaning him staying alive will be advantageous to scum.
2) The scum could think there is a medic. This would mean two blue power roles- the scum might be able to guess there are two blue power roles based on how many special roles they have. I think this is somewhat less likely, since that would be a lot of power roles in a 12 man newbie game.

Why wasn't Mementoss shot:
1) I would suggest OCCAMS RAZOR: he is scum.
2) If he IS town, I think keeping him alive has the advantage of making me a clear lynch target, as he is gunning for me as well. But I think Occams Razor is the clear reason!

A final thought:
-If I am scum, it would have been obvious to target Artanis or Mementoss. If I am scum and flip red, it means the town has pretty much 2 very strong greens. This would be a terrible plan. I should stress this with an underline!
-If Mementoss is scum, all he has to do is get my lynched today and he wins.
ZBot
Profile Joined April 2010
194 Posts
March 28 2012 15:11 GMT
#500
Day 3 Vote Count.

Remember, everyone must vote, and you need a majority to lynch (4 people in this case)

Current votes:

michaelthe (4): Artanis[Xp], Nova_Terra, BlueyD, Mementoss

Not voting: michaelthe, Ninja4ever., virtu

The Day deadline is at 2012-03-30 12:00:00. (That's approximately 1 day, 11:48:23 from now.)
All ZBot operation in a thread is under the control of the Original Poster of the respective thread.
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