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On March 27 2012 08:17 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
There's just been too many mafia tricks this day. They're definitely doing a good job throwing us off. The only reason I can imagine for this is because there's a mafia on the chopping block. Seviro was the likely candidate to get lynched and him voting for himself makes more sense for scum then town, since it's basically just another trick in the book. Tricks are things mafia uses a lot more often than town. Too many attempts at confusion lead me to believe we've got the right target.
You make a good point. Lets be confident in our analysis and go from there after the flip.
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That being said, we would sit a lot more comfortable if Goss would switch his vote. Also, since ninja4ever is reading the thread and catching up I would like to hear from him/ have him switch his vote. For ensured majority. I will be staying up until the flip, too curious.
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On March 27 2012 08:04 Mementoss wrote:
omfg, michael that was the stupidest move ever if you are town. Seriously, there is no town logic behind it. I thought of what you said too, that last minute mafia could vote switch for the no lynch due to us not having virtu, but guess what. It would be fucking stupid because it would bring all eyes on them and we could connect the dotes and kill there whole team in a couple swipes. As of now switching your vote makes a no-lynch more likely so you completely contradicted yourself. I am so confused right now, GJ mafia your doing your job.
Alright, michael is now officially looking scum for me.
This really confuses me and makes me suspect you might be scum. Michael's post looks so much more like ignorance than deception; he clearly just didn't think it through properly, and it's a lot more likely now that he's just a confused townie rather than mafia. Given how you're clearly not a dumb player, a very rational explanation to this would be willful ignorance. Putting another suspect on the list is always a good thing for Mafia, so there's plenty of reason for it. I won't exclude the possibility that this was just a lapse of judgement though. It's just extremely clear to me that Michael is just a confused townie.
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That said, that's still far from a case on you. We're still killing Seviro tonight peeps.
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I have to leave atm, life happened. I would seriously like to lynch michaelthe. But I don't see how it will happen.
##Vote: Seviro
for majority and none of that flipping shit.
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I am back, we now have a guaranteed kill on Seviro.
Re: Mementoss
The most likely case is that Seviro and Nova are both scum. This is the only reason Seviro's self vote makes sense. The only way to get a guaranteed kill tonight is to have either Ninja or Goss or Virtu be here. We now have two of them. The only supermajority before would have been achievable on Nova.
It would be pretty easy to achieve a no lynch tonight if we didn't have this supermajority. If I were scum, I wouldnt have posted that strategy and my scum buddy would swap last minute for a no lynch, citing self preservation.
Should we have Seviro flip tonight, and Nova tomorrow, that leaves one to find.
##Unvote: Nova_Terra
##Vote: Seviro
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France231 Posts
I decided to simply ignore Seviro self vote, it can equally mean he's a townie trying to prove he'll do anything for town or a scum that wants us to think that.
Well, putting more thought into that, it's an interesting move. Look at what happened earlier :
Seviro is suspected. He seems to be a rather agressive player, and answer with his read on everyone. One could expect he would totally go all out on the most suspicious person of the moment : Nova. So what does he say about him ?
+ Show Spoiler +Nova_TerraDon't know at all, I'd say slightly leaning scum mostly because of the meta difference from last game as stated by Mementoss. That doesn'T mean much since it was his first game but I feel that his defense have been pointlessly long. He is helping the discussion by asking question which is good but he seems scared when it is his turn to answer which is a scum behaviour, if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be scared
This is weird to me. It looks like he's trying to avoid giving his opinion on Nova (slightly scum ? Remember that this is just after Nova's very weak defense), and prefer to go on the kinda weak michael case. Why would he avoid pointing his finger on Nova ? Well, I feel that :
if seviro is townie, he'd jump on Nova's neck asap
if seviro is mafia and therefore know Nova is townie, he'd jump on that very suspicious case
BUT if they're both mafia, it makes sense that seviro is trying to avoid as much contact with nova.
What kinda annoys me in this is the fact that nova didn't hesitate one second to say " I'll speak on saviro later " during his defense. May be they just didn't communicated before hand ? Seems kinda unlikely. May be nova wants to give seviro credit when he's lynched, seeing how strong his case was ? May be once again, but this become too WIFOM to be of any real interest.
What's happening now ? Seviro self vote. What's interesting is that it happens just after mementoss said something among the lines " well they might bu just 2 mafia busing each other " and here we go : not busing anymore.
All in all, it makes sense that they would be two mafias, which might be too good to be true. I'll personally go for seviro for two reasons : firstly he's the one with the most vote at the moment and I absolutly want a lynch. Secondly, there's basically two leaders here : mementoss and artanis. Artanis, the greenest of all people, say go for seviro. Then mementoss comes and tries basically a kinda last second and very slightly suspect switch. I trust artanis more, so I'll go with his plan, even though I think both are scum really. (nova and seviro huh ? not artanis and mementoss)
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France231 Posts
THEREFORE
##Unvote: Nova_Terra
##Vote: Seviro
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Yeah I kinda freaked out, in a moment where I was just mad when I seen what was happening. It was most likely it was a lapse of bad judgement by michael and I overreacted. I was looking far too into WIFOM at the end because I was so close in between who I wanted Nova or Seviro, it ended up confusing me even more.
On top of that I looked like an idiot, cause instead of straight analysis I have been doing I was doing more of what if's piled on top of what if's with crazy master plans. I will go back to what works, good plain old logic. Depending on the flip/if we get a replacement will decide how our night discussion goes. I'm done posting in this game for tonight, I will come back to check the flip.
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EBWOP: GJ ninja you remembered the bold lol.
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France231 Posts
You're amazing at noticing details, hahaha
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And now the 2.5 hour wait for the flip begins.
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OK, I don'T have much time before my lynch so I'll try to make it fast and clear. Maybe you'll give more credit to what say when you'll stop assuming i'm scum.
I'll give you my present thought on the mafia team since it is the last time I can make any claim.
First thing first, based on the recents post, i'm less and less sure that Nova is a scum. The main point against him is his meta shift from last game which don'T say much since it was his first game and in the everyone was thinking he was a scum because of his play style. I'll say there's 60% chance of him flipping scum.
My main suspect at 95% sure in my opinion is, as you may know, Micaelthe. I said about all I had to say about him but i'll talk about his vote switch.
He switched his vote now when it was clear for everyone that I was being lynched. I think that since my death can tell a lot about him (see Mementoss post about it), it was best for him to kill nova since his death doesn't tell anything about him. Also, he add that he'd want at least 6 vote so that scum don'T ninja switch and cancel the lynch which doesn'T make sense since there was 6 vote on me at the time. And for those who think that he wouldn't have made a case on me if he was scum, a lot of people were already suspicious about me so he just tried to get the train rolling (in which he succeeded).
My second suspect which I am 80% sure is BlueyD. As Nova mentionned, after a good start of trying to get discussion roll, he kinda fell out of sight and didn't add anything useful. He did follow the bandwagon on me and nova, adding that I was taking credit for something that I didn'T did, which I refuted by adding the 3 post where I was actually doing what I was claiming. Post at which he answered by:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 27 2012 00:21 BlueyD wrote:Seviro, let me repost the 3 things you consider defenses of Rise, with bolded parts: Show nested quote +Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town. Show nested quote +I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now. Show nested quote +Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho. Okay, so he plays poorly, looks suspicious, and feels like obvious scum to you. Great defense! It doesn't feel like you're defending him at all to me, since you bring up something I can bold in every single post. I'm not at 1/1 or at 1/4 now, I'm at 4/4. Truth is when someone looks this bad, we lynch him to know what he is. That's how the game is played. He was a decent lynch target from the start and the only defense you could have brought out was "someone else looks even worse", as I did. Never try to defend me, by the way.
Post at which I didn't respond since I though it was obviously fake fact but some people seemed to agree with it so here is some clarification.
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.
I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.
See, when we bold what actually matters it takes another sense. But I don'T blame you, it was a trend in this game to take my word out of context and ignoring important part of my posts.
Now for the third, I think he is among Virtu or Ninja4ever. I don'T have anything to back my claim but I feel like they are lurking too easily.
By the way mafia, you did a great job of making me feel scummy, so great job in fact that the vote is unanimous so good job on that.
With that said, don't take what I said here for the truth but please investigate enough to make yourself an opinion. with 3 scum and 4 townie left after the night, the bandwagon can easily go in a wrong way.
I put my fate into your hand Town Fellow. Avenge my death and win this for me please.
Cheers, Good luck Good game, I follow this closely and I hope my death won't be in vain.
I don'T think I'll post again so peace out, love you all :D (except scum team obiously).
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EBWOP: Oh and Mementoss, if you are a scum I hate you so much 
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EBWOP: Don'T argue over it, it is not worth it, concentrate your thought on who actually look scummy and please take into consideration everything I said since Day 1.
Cheers for good now, c ya
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Well, either best scum act ever or worth a shot of changing.
##unvote: Seviro
##vote: Michaelthe
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Actually, scratch that. We'll do it if there's enough people here. Report in if you're willing to change for Michaelthe just so we don't lose a majority lynch.
##unvote: Michaelthe
##vote: Seviro
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@Artanis
I'm willing, but at 5 minutes to the deadline I'm prob too late.
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Yeah, too late, and I wasted my 2000th post on this. Damnit.
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This sucks. I feel like he is greed now.
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EPT
