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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX - Page 20

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Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 26 2012 19:26 GMT
#381
I would like to hear from ninja4ever again, responding to the recent new upcomings in the case.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 26 2012 19:43 GMT
#382
Me too, i dont think he even posted after my case on seviro. i think i noted in my ("scummy") reads thing that he was kinda lurking and comes on and posts 2 relevant posts and ourks again.
Mementoss, a question for you, you said in an earlier post that you are more inclined to lynch seviro to get info on michael, correct? Then what are your thoughts now and have they changed from then?
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 26 2012 19:54 GMT
#383
"If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips town, Michael would be highly suspicious and so would Nova Terra.
If we lynch Seviro and Seviro flips scum, Michael would be off my radar, and Nova would still remain suspicious.

If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips town, I would be highly suspicious, and ninja4ever would be partially suspicious.
If we lynch Nova_Terra and he flips scum, I would be off the radar, and ninja4ever wouldn't be that suspicious."

This is what I said, and I still stand by it. However, lynch first who you think is scummiest, not by what information it can give you. Seviro is for sure the safest lynch, information wise. But either way, if we don't lynch a scum today its a huge loss, nothing can give us more information than a scum lynch.

Right now Michael is kinda looking town but im not sure, he pushed the first case/vote against seviro today. Which would be ambitious for a mafia player to do, however he pushed Artanis really hard day one, this doesn't make him scummy. But it is possible that scum was taking advantage of a town slip to really kill an active townie day 1.

Also WIFOM from the night kill leads me to believe mafia wanted us to go after Michael because Froggy put a case on him, then died. Only other significant thing Froggy did was point out an inconsistency on Seviro. So it kinda leads back to Seviro because at the first of the day Seviro put a case on Michael, to hope to get someone would agree with him and get a bandwagon on him, later on someone would surely mention the WIFOM to strengthen the case on Michael. But, this is all too WIFOM for me to base important decisions on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 26 2012 19:57 GMT
#384
Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe.

in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter.
I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off.
He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think).
After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude.
it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful.
anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.

Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 26 2012 20:11 GMT
#385
Also going to post a quick analysis on gossemerr, because he is also taking some suspicion(at least from artanis) and therefore i feel inclined to post some of my thoughts on him.
So, Gosse starts off the game very aggressively, which, similar to michael, i like early. his activity dropped off a bit after his first couple posts (where a good bit of aggressive voting goes on, may be WIFOM but that just doesnt seem like much of a scum behavior to me) which bothered me initially, but as time went on gosse posted relatively regurally each time bringinf things to the table. one of the first 2 RoF votes as well as bringing up sc2system etc. and because of these i am less inclined to think scum compared to a late voter. He actually has one of the smaller/smallest filters in the game, but each post is deliberate and he does post analysis that speaks to his advantage. of course, he is currently on the wrong side of the lynch today, but even so, i think he is leaning towards townie 65-70%.
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
March 26 2012 20:15 GMT
#386
On March 27 2012 04:57 Nova_Terra wrote:
Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe.

in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter.
I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off.
He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think).
After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude.
it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful.
anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.

Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.

Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day.
The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely.
Gossemerr
Profile Joined April 2011
United States195 Posts
March 26 2012 20:19 GMT
#387
Okay, I don't think that both Seviro AND Nova are town. This is going to be WIFOM, but I want to point it out. Why would they both through each other under the bus?

Seviro on Nova:
+ Show Spoiler +

On March 26 2012 23:19 Seviro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2012 19:21 Nova_Terra wrote:

This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker.


If you're talking about ROS, at the time I voted on him he already had quite a lot of post, they were just not making any sense. And the Virtu vote was more like me pointing out that he said he would post his thought and that 22 hour later he had still not posted.


Show nested quote +
This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird.


At least by voting no-Lynch it is clear for everyone that they don'T have a clue yet as oppose that if they just didn't vote.


Show nested quote +
Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own.


See above.

Show nested quote +
I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down.
In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy.


Of course it came off defensive, every single point were due to it being Day 1, these point were true for other people too as you mentionned after his post. And at this point, I was not feeling anyone was more scummy than another one since other than the lurker everyone had about the same activity and were just chit-chatting.


Show nested quote +
And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird.
On March 24 2012 05:48 Seviro wrote:
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote:
give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.


Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.

At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately”


At this point ROS was no more a lurker, he had all the time that he wanted to posting something that had some value but all we got was "I'll be better tomorrow".It's not like it was his only post.


Show nested quote +
Lolwut?
This is just….
Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting
>Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours
That’s just contradicting and scummy.
Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker)


As said above, the vote on Virtu was mostly pointing out that he didn't post for 22 hour when he said he would.

Show nested quote +
After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all?


Ok, I didn'T say clearly "Yes I agree with you", but I added 2 quote that were strenghtening your case. What would I do that had I disagree?.

Show nested quote +

On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote:
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote:
And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...


This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.


Mhm, compare this to
Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not.

No? you call a pressure play a play where you ask someone to post their opinion on a subject.


Virtu's case was different since he did say he would come and post. I knoew it was coming so it was just kind of a reminder.

Show nested quote +
He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff.


What would I do with it? I mentioned why I did this little case on Mementoss and then I waited for Micalethe's answers.

Show nested quote +
The main thing I noticed in his defense is really how defensive and angry he got. Scum traits.


Maybe it did seems defensive and angry, but most of his point were based on false fact, saying me say something I didn'T and thing that I already answered so of course I got a little impatient.


Show nested quote +
The endless irritation and defense doesn’t stop.


See above.


Show nested quote +
In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself.


Since the Artanis/Seviro case, every case I got on me were basically saying the same thing overall. Most of the point that are against me I defended them over and over again and it seems that no one notice since thehy keep coming back as if they were new. And I stand by the fact that micaelthe is needlessly discrediting others post by saying things like he did. (I don't know if you remember last game but you said yourself that it is a scum trait.)


Since it seems that one of us will fall today, i'll put my vote on you and if something major happens, I might change.

##vote: Nova_Terra



Nova on Seviro:
+ Show Spoiler +

On March 26 2012 19:21 Nova_Terra wrote:
Seviro
Some of the parts are spoilered at the end to save space.
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 03:50 Seviro wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote:
People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:

Seviro (one useless post, but he's there)
Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching)
Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)

No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.

On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q


My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .

As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.

That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.

This post kinda came off weird to me. posts some stuff about last game, says how we shouldnt be inactive, and ends on kind of a weird note about pressuring lurkers but not lynching too fast. which is especially strange when later in the day he randomly votes for a lurker.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote:
there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.

It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.

This is one of the posts that i feel the weirdest about. he says that we should have some soft deadline which i had already stated and he agreed on, and then says we can discuss and that if someone has nobody they think is suspicious at all they can just vote No-Lynch no problem and then just switch it later when they feel like? Seems to me like hes encouraging sc2system-like behavior. really weird.
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote:
It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).

But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.

Then he clears this up saying not to no-lynch, but I still don’t think that his point makes sense, its just encouraging people to say that they are undecided, then wait until last minute and flip with little explanation of their own.
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 03:10 Seviro wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Time to bring another suspect to the table.
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote:
I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more.

It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!)

Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 03:50 Seviro wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote:
People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:

Seviro (one useless post, but he's there)
Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching)
Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)

No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.

On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q


My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry .

As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town.

That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.

Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote:
On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote:
Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.


Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen.

And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.

Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.


Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 06:31 Seviro wrote:
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote:
michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy.
Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?


I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.

Nothing of real worth here.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote:
there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.

It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.

These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote:
It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).

But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.

Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote:
EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.

But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.

Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.

Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.

##Vote Seviro



Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.


I already answered what I meant by that, pressuring and lynching are two different thing. Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not. A scum under pressure is most likely to post than a town in my opinion.

Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.


Ok, so I can't agree with anyone that's what you're saying? I mean I wasn'T online after Nova question and Froggy kind of answered him in my place and I just pointed out that it was indeed what I meant.

On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote:
What I have been saying (and I think what Seviro is saying), is to be able to analyse behaviour you need to get actions and reactions from people. The analysis then has to be correct in of itself. The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.


These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.


Ok, so now I'm suspicious because i'm not badwagonning? I don'T really see your point here.

Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.


Way to miss the point, I won't bother explaining again since what you quoted was clear and you just seem to want to make me look scummy by making me say what I didn'T say.

Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.


It is not that crucial but if we can come up with something like this we will be a lot more organized and will have time to discuss all the votes before the actual deadline. Once again I explained it very well.



Now that you put yourself on the stage, let's take a look at you.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 21:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Hey guys, just woke up, sorry for not replying yet. 3am is quite late for us Europeans, but I'm here now
This is my third or fourth game of TL Mafia, I've organized Insane Mafia before which was an absolutely insane game and a ton of fun. I'm also pro lynching someone on day 1 as lynches are the only reliable way to kill mafia. We don't know if there's a vigilante in the game, but I don't think we can count on it. We should also treat any roleclaims with suspicion. Don't blindly follow anyone that claims, or anyone that makes long posts. Think for yourself and don't jump on bandwagons. From what I've seen in other games this is generally what kills towns.
Mafia is by definition more organized so they're better at bandwagoning, though a smart mafia will never have everyone voting on one person. However, if there's any risk of a mafia getting lynched they'll normally switch their votes off so anyone that switches votes at the last minute should be viewed with suspicion.


Introductory post, little content else than the obvious and some WIFOM toward the end

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 05:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote:
Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.

Why would you not post your thoughts now instead of one hour before the deadline? We could actually discuss them if you post it now, there's no reason not to.


On of the first to tell what everyone else will say after. (People can have the same opinion, it'S not necessary badwagonning)

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 01:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
@Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.


I agree that my posts are kind of long but just because you are missing every point that I make it doesn't mean that I have no content.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 02:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.


This defense is not valid as it is only WIFOM. (It's a newbie game after all)


Now I hate to do that, but I need to vote on you for now. In your case on me you were purposely (or not) missing all my point to make me look scummy and that for me is a lot more scummy. so for now

##Vote: Artanis[Xp]


I don’t really think that seviro handled defending this case well.it came off very defensive and the end was just OMGUS. One thing I want to note is that he says pressuring is asking people to post thoughts and respond to questions, and lynching is voting them down.
In his next few posts he just goes on about how rise of fenix is just probably bad in general, but it isn’t really helping anything. He doesn’t want to lynch him, but doesn’t really present any other option? Scummy.


And then when RoF posts saying he will try to make it up he goes a bit weird.
Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 05:48 Seviro wrote:
On March 24 2012 05:36 Rise Of Fenix wrote:
give me another chance, please. I will make up my terrible play today tommorow.


Dude you still have about 6 hour left before today's deadline. At the rate thi is going you won'T be alive tomorrow anyway, if you want to defend yourself and step up your play it is today. With a post like this it seems like you don'T even try so we might as well lynch you right now.

At this point it starts to go back to the thing about how he just wants to pressure lurkers and not lynch. Now hes just threatening him to post or die, which isn’t really wanting to “not lynch lurkers immediately”

Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 06:00 Seviro wrote:
I want to point out that it'S been a bit more than 22 hour since virtu last post. He did said he'll post today but I have yet to see anything from him. I think for now i'll put my vote on him until he comes out.

##unvote: Artanis[Xp]
##Vote: Virtu


Lolwut?
This is just….
Says lurkers should be pressured (which apparently means asking them directly for their opinion and not voting
>Votes for lurker for no reason other than him not having been there for 22 hours
That’s just contradicting and scummy.
Then he switches between Virtu and RoF (also a lurker)

In his next couple posts he just adds how system needs to be looked at. Oh, and then theres this which bugged me a bit
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2012 04:56 Seviro wrote:
Hum, you have some good point there but you could have add these two post as well


+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 07:57 BlueyD wrote:
Note: I haven't vote counted, but I'm still here for a few hours (MLG yay!) and will switch for Rise if we need a majority when the time limit gets near, but I would much prefer to see sc2master lynched.




+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 08:38 BlueyD wrote:
Hint to Rise, if he's still around: Switching his vote to sc2system might let him stay alive another day.



It seems like it is 100% sure that these two are the lynch target for the first 2 day when everything can happen during day 1 that can change anything.

Personnally after seeing Rise flip Town I think that Sc2system is most likely a town that can't put his thought together. I believe that his day 1 posting are mostly inexperienced post and that if he try a bit he could come up with some good thing. I just know that for now i'm not willing to vote for him on day 2 yet.

After I post my case, the only thing I get from him is Hum, some good point there. No other thoughts on the case at all. Not really suspicious there, but to not share any thoughts on it at all?

His thoughts on system were pretty much yeah hes probably bad townie but not sure if worth a lynch etc. Yeah, everyone knows hes suspicious.

Show nested quote +
On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote:
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote:
And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...


This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.


Mhm, compare this to
Show nested quote +
Pressuring is forcing them to post by asking them directly their opinion on a subject so that we can more precisely find who is scum and who is not.

No? you call a pressure play a play where you ask someone to post their opinion on a subject.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:04 Seviro wrote:
Ok, so now,

Mementoss: He was the first one to make a real case against Rise Of Fenix which really started the train rolling in my opinion. While Rise was doing a great job of sinking himself into bad and bad post, peolple started to look more into it after this case. He also was the first one to point out sc2system lurkerness.These two people had already been mentionned beforehand, respectively by Gossemer and Ninja4ever. My point is, not that it mean anything since it was the same for a lot of people, his two main suspect flipped town which is worth pointing out I think.

Now, this is not scummy in itself but I also saw a little inconsistency in his posting.

In his first post he states:

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 22 2012 20:41 Mementoss wrote:
Therefore, I say we lynch a lurker/useless poster day 1, unless we have a significant scum slip. Why is this beneifical to us the town, even though there is a good chance it will be a townie?
1) Helps narrow down the field for scum hunting later
2) Keeps the active ratio higher for discussion
3) Attempts to keep replacements out of the game, which are always difficult to read and deal with as one persons scum meta =/= the other persons.
.


Then, later he is the one who notice the slip of artanis

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 24 2012 01:43 Mementoss wrote:

Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:

1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake.
2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active.
3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)

Dat scum slip


If we follow his reasoning, At this point Artanis had 66% chance of being a scum but even then he didn't put a vote even after:

Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote:
@Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy.


He point out the slip, don't believe the defense, have stated in his first post that he would vote a lurker/useless poster unless a scum slip like this happened, be even then he doesn't put his vote on him once.

Now, since Artanis is a confirmed townie now (unless a counter claim but at this point I doubt it), it is not inherently scummy but these littles inconsistencies are worth mentionning if we want to scum hunt effectively.


My main suspect now is Micaelthe: Here is Froggy post about his early game so I won't have to repeat it.


+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 10:07 froggynoddy wrote:
Wow. Michaelthe, I'm not sure if you are bad town or bad scum. Regardless, you seem pretty bad.

You're first post states (after day 1) that you are for lurker lynch:

Show nested quote +
Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games.


You're second post has no content:

Show nested quote +
Ok,

It took like 2 minutes to read the 8 posts so far

I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page

I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games.


Your third point is some very weak finger pointing:

Show nested quote +
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.

Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.

I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:

1)sc2system
2)Ninja4ever
3)Froggynoddy

You all have posts, but not enough substance!

ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!


There is pretty much nothing to go by. Your content is zilch, you are putting suspicion on people who have more content than you; I have argued that forcing lurkers to post is beneficial to town, more convincingly than you have (as has seviro and to a certain extent Nova_Terra), yet you put a really weak case forward against three posters.

I'm not voting for you YET but you seriously need to shape up. Accusing players who have posted content in day 1 seems scummy to me as there is so little to go by.

Make a better case dude. (for all three of us)


I want to add on his ultimatum thingie.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 07:19 michaelthe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 06:54 Gossemerr wrote:
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote:
I know it is hard to contribute on Day1 in a newbie game, but again, the only way to force... is to force it... Post anything of value to this game of mafia. Even a weak thought about who looks suspicious, who doesn't, if you think we should day1 lynch etc.

Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is.

I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people:

1)sc2system
2)Ninja4ever
3)Froggynoddy

You all have posts, but not enough substance!

ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!


How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list?



Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy.

I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+

The scores are as follows:

sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think)
Ninja: 0,0
Froggy: 0,1,1

And, as you said and I missed:
Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina)


So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever

Revised list:
1. Sc2system
2. Ninja
3. Rise of Fenix
4. Froggy



2 thing I want to point out with this.

First thing, 3 out of 4 on this list are now dead dead townies.

Second, he post an Ultimatum than never happen:
Show nested quote +
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!


Which he emphasize as being an ultimatum.
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 06:25 michaelthe wrote:
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote:
michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy.
Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline?


not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later!

You're Euro.. what time is it there?


Then his first actual vote happen 23 hour after his ultimatum whereas he said an ultimatum of 8 hour more so that he vote for someone that is not on his list.

Which lead me to talk about the "Feudian slip" as he calls it.

He seems to insist a lot on this than needed, now that we already had ROS and sc2system under the radar he bring back a point that had been discuss hours before as if since ROS and sc2system where dead men walking at this stage if he could change day 1 lynch then day 2 and 3 would have been a big mess for the town.

I'll point out also that he was not the first to vote for Artanis since my vote was still on him and most of his opinion were mostly reformulating. Then, at the end of the day he just follow the bandwagon as he see that Artanis won't get lynched.


Sorry for the lenght of the post, longer than expected.

He posts some seeming analysis on Mementoss and more importantly TheMichael but doesn’t really do anything with it. This is his first “real” case/important analysis. Most of his content has been defense or fluff.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:39 Seviro wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 03:10 michaelthe wrote:

Initial Day 2 Thoughts
At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.

On Seviro:

(This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all)
First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap:

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote:
EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.


He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.

Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move!

FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...

After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.

Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.

After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!

Show nested quote +
On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote:
On March 25 2012 06:39 BlueyD wrote:
And I didn't like that he had a "pressure but no lynch" opinion on lurkers at first, but then switched his vote to Virtu for his period of inactivity, despite many ok Virtu posts before. "Flexible in opinion" is how I'd describe Seviro, and that's not a compliment...


This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play.


He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here.

His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD:

Show nested quote +
On March 26 2012 01:47 Seviro wrote:
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
.He also used a chainsaw argument against me after I accused him, voting me for little reason seemingly only because I voted on him and some minor suspicions. Regardless of alignment, that's bad.


I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same.

Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours.


He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.



+ Show Spoiler +
Initial Day 2 Thoughts
At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look.


That is purely WIFOM.


Show nested quote +
He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill.


It doesn't mean it at all, let's say a 8 or even a 6 hour dealine, you had 40-42 to come up with a vote at this point in the day you should have your opinion anyway. It is in no way final but this way we can have an organized town and we have actually enough time to discuss each vote.

Show nested quote +
FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix...

After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis.


What are you talking about?. Literally all the EFFING day I've been DEFENDING Fenix in hope that he would come up with something useful, which didn'T happen.

Show nested quote +
Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix.


Virtu had promised us a post which was not there at the time, after he did post I switch my vote onto Fenix since his post were making less and less sense.

Show nested quote +
After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE!


Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 23:54 michaelthe wrote:

It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him.


You must be scum right? Just because I think something and it come down that I was right it doesn't mean anything.

Show nested quote +
He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried.


Show nested quote +
On March 25 2012 22:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
(if you don't know, a chainsaw argument is accusing the accuser rather than defending yourself)..


I did not accuse him rather than defending myself, I did defend myself then I accused him, this is werew the difference lies.


If you have other question about this Artanis/Seviro thing feel free to ask.

The main thing I noticed in his defense is really how defensive and angry he got. Scum traits.

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote:
Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.


+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 14:34 michaelthe wrote:
Re Seviro Attack
You make two points about my ultimatum:
1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies.
2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum.

Reponses:
1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone.
2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post.

On Artanis, you make two points:
1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch
2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first

I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had.


Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case.


About the 3 out of 4 thingie, of course this was purely WIFOM but I thought it was worth mentioning.

And on the Ultimatum you did say

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 06:16 michaelthe wrote:
ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote!


So you are basically saying that "i'm drunk" and "i'm awake" are valuable for the town right?

And for the "Feudian slip" as you like to call it I did bring it up because of the way you brought it back. You basically said everything Mementoss had already say in his post about it, but you write it in a way that make it look like you were the one to find it.

And also, I forgot to mention that your answer about froggy's post that was asking you to give content was:

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2012 15:23 michaelthe wrote:
On Froggy

You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!:

On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote:
The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.


Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning.


You didn'T adress any of his claim.

And on my point being weak, weightless and artificial I don't know if you saw my answer about your case on me, I countered every single point of yours without even trying and I did not say anything about your point being weak and weightless because it is useless to discredit other post the way you do it.

So if you could stop with your arrogant attitude of "I'm right and I'm good, you're wrong and you suck" that would be beneficial for the town.


And blueyD

Show nested quote +
You had no opinion, really?! On a vigi hit?!


Yeah really.

Show nested quote +
1. These 2 were a lot of people’s first 2 suspects. Pointing out that they were mementoss’s as well is not worth it.

2. He pointed out the lurking of people who had been pointed out by Gossemer and Ninja4ever, which makes him the first to make these cases? Contradiction, anyone?


There is a difference between pointing out something and making a case on it.

Anyway the goal of the small case on Mem was only to show that we need to not put him in the "almost confirmed townie" yet since on day 1 some people seemed to believe he was the most townie of us, which he may be but it is not a reason to not suspect him and to let him slip by.


Show nested quote +
When your only time specifically mentioning Rise day 1 is this:

+ Show Spoiler +
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote:
And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.


When you go through my filter, at least do it right :

Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 03:14 Seviro wrote:
Oh, I really just think now that Fenix is playing poorly or just doesn't care enough to put enough time on the game. But I'll give him the chance to step up his play because I really think he is town.


Show nested quote +

I think that if he was mafia, his fellow scum would have helped him in the background so that he don't look so suspicious. For now I think he is just bad and as I said, i'm willing to give him a chance to step up his play. I shouldn't have said that I think that he is really town, more like I don't see him being more scummy than anyone else right now.


Show nested quote +
On March 24 2012 05:10 Seviro wrote:
Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho.


that is 3 more post where I defend him so if you claim something, don't only 1/4 post on it to make me look bad.

And I did mention this defense twice because 2 people said that I jumped on the ROS train right away, which is false.

Seriously, I don'T know if my english is so bad or you just can't read but i'm getting tired of repeating myself over and over again.

Now I'm really going to bed.

The endless irritation and defense doesn’t stop. Particularly here:
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 26 2012 16:04 Seviro wrote:
Inb4 OMG he said he was going to bed last post and he didn'T, SCUMSCUMSCUM, by heading to bed I meant getting of the computer and doing something else before actually going to bed. I planned to take a look at the thread just before sleeping but there was 2 post adressed to me so I responded to them while they were of actuality.

In the post he says that the other person is understanding badly, makes this Inb4 crap, says that themichael is arrogant etc and has a certain attitude (not saying themichael isn’t scummy, hope to post my thoughts on him relatively soon after this case) but its just rude, and seems OMGUS himself.

That’s my analysis on seviro.
##Vote: Seviro
I wish I could have analyzed a bit more, but I can see that I am running short on time and for times sake I’ll put this out as early as possible.





I feel like IF they were scum buddies they would want to bring someone else into the mix, not heat up the cases between themselves - which would lead to them both possibly getting lynched. However, both of them do bring up michaelthe at separate times. Not really sure what to make of this, as I can't get a read of michael right now anyways. Anyhow, I don't really agree with Mem that is Seviro flips scum then that makes Nova suspicious. Right now Nova is suspicious to me based on his own merit.
<3
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 26 2012 20:24 GMT
#388
On the above @Goss I think it was apparant early in the day the votes were at 2-2, that it was most likely going to be a battle between them two on who gets lynched today. They both actually waited fairly late before putting a case on each other. Seviro posted a case analysis on me and Michael before moving to Nova. I think it was a last ditch effort either that makes them look good if one survives and the other flips scum. Or is just a last ditch town effort to know they won't convince a case of anyone else for a majority swing, so their best chance of survival is to pursway the last voters to switch over.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Gossemerr
Profile Joined April 2011
United States195 Posts
March 26 2012 20:27 GMT
#389
ebwop:

Right now I am probably going to switch my vote to Seviro, just waiting to see what happens. Nova seems to be trying to bring new information to the table, which I like. Seviro not so much, but this could be due to having to defend himself for a while. BUT, I just don't like how Seviro reacts to everyone who makes a case against him. He immediately switches the pressure to the person with the case against him and even votes for said person (Artanis then Nova if I remember correctly) which is really scummy to me.
<3
Gossemerr
Profile Joined April 2011
United States195 Posts
March 26 2012 20:29 GMT
#390
ebwop:
shit. In my post i meant to say that both seviro and nova are probably notSCUM. ha.
<3
Gossemerr
Profile Joined April 2011
United States195 Posts
March 26 2012 20:31 GMT
#391
@Mem:

I agree it seems like a last ditch effort by both. I can't tell if its a town or sum effort though. In our last game these too did the same exact thing. -___-
<3
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 26 2012 20:36 GMT
#392
I feel like that at least one is mafia, otherwise the town would be a lot less active. As the scum could lurk and not argue anything. I could be wrong though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 26 2012 20:43 GMT
#393
On March 27 2012 05:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2012 04:57 Nova_Terra wrote:
Just want to make a brief analysis on Michaelthe.

in early game, he played aggressively to start out which i liked. however, since then, the quality of play has gone down substantially. i just took a foray into his filter.
I definitely think he goes a bit overboard on his ultimatum (which he didnt follow?) and the artanis slip thing. i can see the point of both, but he went a bit too off.
He had some wishy-washyness to his vote patterns, which can be explained a bit by avoiding no lynch, but it became apparent to me that ALL 3 of the people he switched between were/are town (as i think artanis is certain at this point). he jumped happily on every little mistake that has arisen throughout the game (refered to in some guide as cherry picking town mistakes i think).
After last game, i actually gave up on my "discrediting tell" philosophy, where if you call some analysis/case bad, it is often a scum move because cases which have a bad reaction to them are not thought of and taken as serious as one without any opinions on it so far. upon reading his filter, what i classified as aggressiveness in playstyle went right into discrediting and being just plain rude. He frequently has been calling points terrible and weak, even refusing to respond to a so called "weak case" made by seviro i believe. entirely wrong attitude.
it also seems likes hes going heavy into gossemerr without much behind it. not so sure why. I think gossemerr is leaning town, and in general his play has been helpful.
anyway, if seviro wasnt more suspicious at this point in time, i would be putting down michaelthe for this lynch (unless something else big came up). its likely that my vote tomorrow will be on michaelthe bar some other case developing.

Please be a replacement for virtu if nothng else. A modkill would really kill us i should think.

Wait what? He currently has zero votes and with 7 hours to go I highly doubt you could get enough votes on him still. This lynch is pretty much between you and seviro right now, we need to lynch a mafia. today. or we'll be wasting a day.
The fact that you want to lynch Michaelthe instead is suspicious to me. You should know that with 7 hours to go the chance of someone going from 0 to 5 votes is fairly unlikely.


Nono, i think you missed the last part of my post, seviro is more susp at this time, just letting you guys know where i stand for both if i live longer or if i die.
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 26 2012 20:51 GMT
#394
Gossemerr i brought up michael and yourself as a result of both artanis' suspicions and my own, at least against michael.
how much of a joke would this be if we were both town, we could be the very definition of screwed. still like 80% sure hes scum though.
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Seviro
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada98 Posts
March 26 2012 20:59 GMT
#395
Ok guys, I think I won't be able to post much before the deadline, I have some issue that I need to take care of.

Let's hope that Virtu will actually come and vote so that he don't get modkilled or at least let's hope he'S scum if he does get modkilled.

Now, since the vote is actually 4/4 and a no lynch right now would be pretty bad I'll put a vote on myself so at least we get a lynch.

If we do get another day after this I hope it will be enough to find every single scum because now I think at this point there is nothing I can do to prove my innocence so even if I survive another day i'll most likely be lynched tomorrow.if I die you'll see that I was not lying when I flip town.

That said if Virtu is indeed a town and get modkilled then GG scum, another flawless victory.

##unvote: Nova_Terra
##vote: Seviro


Peace out and let's hope for the best.
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 26 2012 21:12 GMT
#396
Here are a couple reasons why I'm switching my vote:

1. Just looking at the people voting Nova_Terra, I trust them a lot less than the people voting Seviro.

Nova_Terra voters: Seviro - No trust, Gossemer - semi trust, ninja4ever - No trust

Seviro voters: Nova_terra - No trust, Artanis - almost complete trust, blueyD semi trust, Michael - Null.

2. Nova_Terra was the first person to defend Artanis, now the closest to confirmed town we have.

On March 24 2012 02:20 Nova_Terra wrote:
The gist of it: Ok, fair enough. I just feel that Seviro is in a position where myself or a few other posters here could be in. I feel a bit weird about that o.o
nice catch on that slip, but seeing as this IS a newbie game, it isnt very telling. at all. I hate that it works that way, but yeah, i should think that scum slips (even if they are from townies) will happen relatively often. Anyways, as a general note to everybody, please dont make assumptions like this (even if they are about me.) i would prefer us to be looking at all the options than i would have us assuming peoples roles, at least in our minds.
Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why?


It was quick and reactionary, and wasn't a bandwagon opinion.

3. Nova's defense was bad yes, but so was Seviros. I feel Seviro has been just replying to anything even mentioning him from day 1, and responding in an aggressive tone.

4. Nova's reponse when time is running out/desparation.
- Is posting analyses on people who were considered suspicious. Seems like he is genuinely worried for the towns well being after hes gone. As shown above.

5.Seviro is the safer lynch, if he flips town I think it gives us more of a direction on certain people he interacted with.

This is the hardest choice I've had in this game by far, I hope it turns out for the best. I would like people to take the discussion from the scummy traits to why you think who you are voting for is the better candidate of the two. This could bring in some new good points I didn't think of. Please give me your opinion on this, I will be back in 2 hours, and am willing to re-look at the evidence and change my vote back.

##Unvote: Nova_Terra
##Vote: Seviro

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Mementoss
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Canada2595 Posts
March 26 2012 21:13 GMT
#397
Now Seviro votes himself and makes everything all the more complicated, QQ. God damnit. DAMNIT.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu96xMwFVXw
Nova_Terra
Profile Joined March 2012
Switzerland1190 Posts
March 26 2012 21:20 GMT
#398
I dont freaking understand this game anymore. seviro cant be townie. just NO. it defies my logic TT
Proud supporter of the Basking Rootwalla
Gossemerr
Profile Joined April 2011
United States195 Posts
March 26 2012 21:26 GMT
#399
Jesus, if Seviro is scum then good job confusing the shit out of me. I just don't see self-sacrifice as a scum trait.. SOB
<3
michaelthe
Profile Joined February 2010
United States359 Posts
March 26 2012 21:29 GMT
#400
I am changing my vote to Nova.

He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense.

I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself.

After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this).

Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me.

Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is).

##Vote: Nova_Terra
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