Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 3

On February 21 2012 05:06 Mattchew wrote:
Zelblade, trackd00r, MidnightGladius, TKHawkins

all switched from ET to Dimmu outstandingly quickly.

On February 21 2012 10:02 MidnightGladius wrote:
Mattchew, that's brilliant. So brilliant, in fact, that I have to wonder about the false positive rate of the "no mutual mentions" method. If you look through the filters, the primary way that players mention everyone else is to do so through a list, town/null/scum style. Players who don't use such lists are always going to get "caught" by your method, which is why I think it's far less telling than you insist.

You're right, I haven' talked to zelblade, trackdoor, or TKHawkins. I also didn't explicitly deal with Steveling, sloosh, Janaan, or DimmuKlok. The only players I've directly talked to have been those attacking me, or those that I've been suspicious of.

Guess what, you haven't been talking to everyone, either. No one has!

I'm not going to go through every other player's filter and do the same thing, because you should see the point. This method encourages confirmation bias, doesn't really discriminate between innocents and scum, and then sounds really really convincing unless you look at the bias in the process.

On February 21 2012 10:26 trackd00r wrote:
Do you honestly think that we could do something so obvious like that?

On February 21 2012 10:31 Janaan wrote:
First impressions after reading Mattchew's case again:
My big problem with Mattchew's case right now is that he only really addresses connections (or lack of) between the 4 players. This is possibly useful IF you've already flipped at least one or two mafia, but until then, it's all just WIFOM. The case looks like it was originally thought of because these 4 all switched to DimmuKlok, seemingly simultaneously, but I'm just not seeing enough evidence here for ALL of them to be mafia unless the case is followed up with good analysis of each one seperately.

On February 21 2012 10:39 slOosh wrote:


Not reading anything till you explain this.


DYH will be lynched today. Unless anyone has substantial evidence as to why he is town,

HE WILL BE LYNCHED TODAY.

On February 21 2012 10:40 Janaan wrote:

In my mind, they *could* mean scum. That doesn't automatically mean that they do.

On February 21 2012 10:57 Janaan wrote:

Alongside what? So far, the only case you've brought about this is that they all switched their vote to DimmuKlok at approximately the same time, and that they haven't been talking about each other except in broad statements. That doesn't mean that all 4 of them are scum. It doesn't mean that they AREN'T all scum. I'm just telling you my opinion. I'm sorry if it doesn't make sense that I'm not seeing everything 100% the same way that you are.

On December 05 2011 10:33 ElectricBlack wrote:
If he is scum, he's the first scum I've ever seen actually trying to push the town away from lynching lurkers on day 1. I'd say I have a pretty strong town read on Velinath at this point. The only thing that worries me in his play is the lack of people under serious pressure, but I can sort-of relate to that, as it's already evident this town is going to be both active and hold a fairly high quality of posting.

On February 17 2012 11:51 DoYouHas wrote:
The point is not to lynch lurkers, it is to lynch scum. If a lynching a lurker is the best option we have near a deadline, then by all means, let's do it. But policy lynching is just a terrible idea. I am already looking suspiciously at the ET for espousing it.

FOS: EchelonTee

On February 21 2012 11:09 gumshoe wrote:


Whats a miller?

On February 21 2012 12:14 EchelonTee wrote:
After doing a full run through of DYH's filter in this game, and in his previous game, I can honestly say that

WE SHOULD LYNCH HIM TODAY NO ONE ELSE.

Why?

If you do a side by side comparison of DYH's posts in each game, there's a really big gulf. I really don't know how DYH could have even brought himself to bring up a "meta" arguement against slOosh, because the meta against him is way, way more damning.

Look at the first 5ish posts from each game:

From last game:
+ Show Spoiler +

From this game:
+ Show Spoiler +

Notice anything different?

In his last game as Townie-Detective, he posts MASSIVE amounts of content, reads on MULTIPLE people (scum reads, not town reads), and tries to keep town atmosphere productive. Just look at those blocks of text. In this game, he isn't even CLOSE to this amount of content. He starts with the same "don't lynch lurker" sentiment, sure, but this only shows that he knows what is the correct thing to say. In my first game as scum, it was very easy for me to say "policy lynching is bad, people who say it's good are scum", as DYH did here.

Instead of being analytical and open, all he does is try to draw out MannerKiss, and present a bad case on slOosh. Why do I think this is a bad case? He says that slOosh "overreacted", in an OMGUS manner; I do not think this at all. I prodded at slOosh, and he prodded back HARD. That screams confident, asshole townie to me, not scum at all. That DYH pushed a case on slOosh based off "meta" is laughable... what, that slOosh is willing to argue and defend himself = scum?

Note that these posts end around page 10-11 for both games; at the same point in time, relatively DYH has a huge disparity in the amount of content compared to last game, and this is only in the early game. At this point all he has done is shadowed my opinions on everything, which I find hilarious; as he has already made slOosh his enemy, all I can guess is that he is trying to follow my reads in the hope that I will agree with him (aka MG=scum, TK=scum, Janaan=town). Even in the cases he make, he brings up pretty shallow things like MG's reaction to the ET vs. Sloosh debacle, or that TK=scum because he thinks Janaan is scum. Wat.

DYH defense, and his cases just sound completely half-hearted and fake. This cannot be the same DYH from last game, or even the DYH from the NMMI obs qt. It's a scum DYH, I'm certain.