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I would really prefer if people started using their votes. We are 13 people, so we need 7 votes for a lynch. I think that both Cosmos and FakePromise are good lurker votes, so as long as you are able to change your vote lateron i would suggest that you post now whom you think we should lynch, and when we got a few more votes we can see what we are going to do with those and upon whom we can get a majority. Also i am still hoping for slooshs case to be a piece of genius, but until he posts it there is no point in discussing it further. In any case, holding back your votes is not good, since it will only lead to a rushed try to get some sort of coherence in the last few hours, which can only benefit mafia through easy bandwagons or a nolynch.
I firmly believe that we should lynch today, so in my eyes the only question is whom. So, vote, and we can discuss it. We should also try to come to a conclusion before all europeans are asleep.
Also:
I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning).
WIFOM stands for "Wine in front of me", which is apparently a reference to some movie. It is used to describe the sort of circular reasoning "Ok, mafia should do this, but they know we know they should do this, so they should do the opposite, but then they know we know they know we know, so they should do the first thing" etc...., which basically does not lead to a conclusion and only obfuscates things.
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So, in line with that, i will change my vote from FakePromise to Cosmos temporarily. I think both are good targets, but Cosmos is the better one. In the end i will vote for anyone on my list of good lynches if we can get a majority for them.
##unvote FakePromise
##vote CosmoxXAM
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That's why i wanted people to start voting, and preferably be available to change their votes to get something done if necessary.
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Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion.
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before.
##unvote CosmosXAM
##vote Zarepath
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Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath
##voteFakePromise
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Hi, I'm back. For no apparent reason i slept for about 20 hours. Need a bit of time catching up now.
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Ok, i don't want to distract from the information gathering at work here, so i will first post my reads at the moment.
Most probable mafia: zelblade
I have posted my reasoning before, and it has not fundamentally changed. Apologetic, paints himself as a noob, things that can very well be scumslips like "to town" Added now is going into HARD lurker mode as soon as the spotlight is of him. He now posts about 3 lines a day. Also, upon rereading this thread i noticed that we were pretty focused on zelblade, and then suddenly the whole "FakePromise" thing started out of nowhere.
Most probable town: Sloosh
Note that this is not a particularly strong town read, just the best i have. Contributing, and bringing up NEW points, not only reiterating the old ones.
On an other note, you all should take a look at the vote list. It would be very weird if not at least 2, more probably 3 of the people voting on FakePromise are mafia.
I will take a better look into how the whole FakePromise thing got started now, and i would encourage others do so now, too. Preferably before i am done and post my findings so that we can have multiple PoV on this and avoid conformation bias/bandwagoning.
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Also, i don't want to distract the thread from the information gathering going on at the moment, so we still need answers from:
balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade
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Ok, this is really interesting. I think you might seriously be able to piece together most of the mafia by analysing this reaction, so i would like others to do the same, too. I will post my findings soon, but i want as many people as possible to get an uninfluenced view. So please take a look at how the whole FakePromise thing evolved.
I try to get as much stuff done in these last hours of night because i fear that i might not be alive tomorrow, so i would also suggest that tomorrow, everyone casts his vote as soon as the day starts. You are still able to change them at any time, so this is no commitment, but it allows us to not have these last-minute haggling for votes debates full of incertainty, which i don't think are a good thing.
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Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though.
+ Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note
Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post.
I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it.
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Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody.
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Now, just in case that you are not sure how to react to this, since mafia already know whom they hit on, it would be really useful for us to know that too.
Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves.
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On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote:
Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody.
EBWOP
Also, here i obviously meant "I don't see mafia not trying to kill anybody"
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In line with line with what i said earlier, i would really like if people would cast preliminary votes as early as possible, so i will put mine down on zelblade now. Now only is he the one that i feel looks consistently scummy, he also started to lurk hardcore as soon as he was out of the spotlight. Also, he is the core of my greater mafie theory i explained in my post above in the spoiler above (btw, i would still like to see other people theories on how the FakePromise Lynch evolved, or regarding my theory)
Last, but not least, we are still missing town/mafia reads (with arguments!) from
balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade and probably some other people. This does not need to interrupt the discussion.
##vote zelblade
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An other thing, i think it would be HIGHLY helpful if everyone would ALWAYS declare his votes in this thread, just to make it easier to read.
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No, it would not be a good idea to reveal it. The only additional knowledge we gain by that is that a medic is in the game, vs a veteran, which is infinitely more useful for mafia to know then for us. If mafia knew it was a veteran action vs a confirmed medic, that means that they don't have to fear medics safing their target as much, while if we confirm a medic, they always know that the medic is out there. Thus, by not revealing it, we boost the efficiency of our medic if we have one, and don't lose anything if we don't.
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Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment.
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Stuff took longer then expected, will go to sleep now. Expect contribution more on my usual level tommorow when i am awake and sober.
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I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes.
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At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade
##vote zarepath
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EPT
