Please people, I am in a different timezone to most so bare that in mind when you decide to swing me from the nearest oak tree.
Newbie Mini Mafia II
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Please people, I am in a different timezone to most so bare that in mind when you decide to swing me from the nearest oak tree. | ||
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This game is open to NEW PLAYERS . This means 3 or fewer games played of TL mafia. Signups will remain open until the 9 spots have been filled. Seems like it should say 12, unless I am misreading. | ||
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Oh well, that's stupid logic and easy to point out. Why aren't you joining? You did pretty well in the last mini game. | ||
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Good luck! | ||
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With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! | ||
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On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it. | ||
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On January 04 2012 10:20 Jitsu wrote: I have played one Mafia game on the TL.Net forums, but I have played before elsewhere as well, in different mediums. Echoing what is posted previously, it should be noted that contribution can only help town, as more posts means more analysis which can help root out who the scum players are. Just wondering Probulous, why do you want to know how many games only those four players have played? One reason is activity expectations. Anyone with any reading of this forum know that people that don't contribute and are mod-killed ruin games. People who have played should know this intimately and I would expect them to be active. Like I said everyone should be, but these people I am unfairly placing on a higher pedestal. If you're town this should not be a problem, I can't focus on everyone all the time and I have to start somewhere. Secondly, if they have had games on here, it gives me the opportunity to have a read of their history. As for why those four, the others had already stated their number of games played. As mentioned this is my first. | ||
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On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining | ||
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On January 04 2012 10:45 AnxiousHippo wrote: Haha, hey. I don't really know what to do early on. Last game (the only other I've played) I think someone got lynched for something really stupid like asking for help. Scum is often afraid to make accusations and contradict themselves. They may say one thing today and the opposite tomorrow. In bigger games they might just lurk and post very occasionally to avoid attention but I don't think we'll have to worry about that so much this game since there's only 12 people. I don't have the slightest idea as to how to make a plan though. I will not try to lynch you for saying something stupid. We all make mistakes. However, I will come down on you with hell-fire if you don't take a stand and argue your case. There is no point trying to ascertain mafia's intentions, it all leads to WIFOM. Read their actions and responses. As you say being wishy-washy is a mafia trait, so don't do it and pick up on people that do. It is better to be wrong than silent. | ||
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On January 04 2012 11:18 CookieMaker wrote: This for clarification I strongly agree with this (the bad pun). It was well-played. Joking aside, had to re-read the rules just to make sure no-lynches were possible. A no-lynch puts much stronger pressure on scum, especially since they have no way of knowing whether a DT is in the game or not. Here's more informational math: There is a 50/50 chance of a DT being in the game. Right now that is also true from a mafia perspective, whether they have a roleblocker (they still see 50/50) or not. My bad, I missed the second one in the list So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today? I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing. | ||
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On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote: Why and how would an RB reveal themself? By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options. | ||
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On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote: Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing. Sheth, you finished dinner yet? Gretorp, Cats are you guys around? Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late. | ||
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On January 04 2012 11:20 gonzaw wrote: This is my first game here, I think I said so before. I've played several games on UG though. I think there are two players from Election Mafia (one game I observed quite recently), Sheth and Jitsu I believe. I would suggest reread that game so we can know these guy's meta and stuff. Also I'd like to know if someone else played another game here, so we can reread those games too. Unless we are at MYLO, a miss-lynch gives you a lot of info. It gives you info on the players that interacted with that guy or voted for said guy. Obviously it gives you info of that guy (since he flipped). If you no-lynch, you basicly forfeit the day and let scum take the initiative at night. I think no-lynching should only be used if everybody derps a lot and the lynch of any player would give us no info whatsoever. I am confused I thought MYLO meant mislynch and lose. If that is the case, a miss-lynch is the end of the game I guess that gives you a lot of information but certainly doesn't help town. Let me be clear, we are trying to lynch scum today and every day. That is our goal however lofty it may be. If we cannot get agreement then we can discuss a no-lynch. All I was stating is that a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch, but lets avoid this alltogether and lynch scum. | ||
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On January 04 2012 11:39 gonzaw wrote: If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR Fair enough but this comes down to WIFOM. I still think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. We gain nothing from these discussions right now. I want to hear from Sheth, where you at bro? | ||
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As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch. Again, where are the other US guys? Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote. | ||
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Aah Sheth, thanks for coming! That gives gretorp and Xeris a little breathing room for now. I also noticed that post from Cats but was waiting for him to add something else or for someone to pick it up. Specifically since I mentioned previously about taking stand. I will not try to lynch you for saying something stupid. We all make mistakes. However, I will come down on you with hell-fire if you don't take a stand and argue your case. There is no point trying to ascertain mafia's intentions, it all leads to WIFOM. Read their actions and responses. As you say being wishy-washy is a mafia trait, so don't do it and pick up on people that do. It is better to be wrong than silent. | ||
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On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta. This is why you must make up your mind for yourself and take a stand. Too many easy excuses if you don't. For me it makes sense to lynch wherever possible. A bad lynch is bad, but not catastrophic (at this stage) and if pushed correctly can provide information about the people pushing for it. | ||
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On January 04 2012 14:06 CatsnHats wrote: But it's so hard to counteraggressive to the nicest guy in esports! Haha thanks for the advice. Lynching someone is definitely the way to go. Any information gleaned, even at the cost of a townkill, is better than no info at all. I don't have a lot new to add that hasn't been said already, but that's my stance. As for picking who to lynch, I going to reserve judgement until the last few people have started posting. If you are finding it difficult to add stuff to the thread, try playing devils advocate with the position you have taken. Read the thread carefully and find posts that are not consistent. I am glad you have taken a stance but you need to be sure why you chose it and be prepared to argue it. Sheth is being generous, your ealier post was very wishy-washy and was a legitimate reason to pressure you. I am still not convinced you are town, prove it to me by posting some analysis. What are your thoughts on CookieMaker? | ||
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Ladies and gentlemen of the jury I present my case to you today in the attempt to clear this town of the scum that is defiling it. NOTE: I wrote this over the last hour or two so I may be missing the latest info First off here are my definite town reads. Tunkeg Aggressive and keen to point out inaccuracies he has been very active. Looks even better than his last game. My highest town read. Jitsu Less active than Tunk but what he says has been of value. Particularly his pressure on Cookie for regarding a no-lynch. He seems to be focusing on Cookie, Hippo and Cats all for either stupid logic or lack of contribution. I like everything I see. Gonzaw This is a funny one because Gonz, I had you pegged as a red initially. Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. Your start was underwhelming with lots of posts but nothing concrete. This was particularly bad filler On January 04 2012 12:35 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: Interesting. If you are town, I really hope you are right about you being "good at mindgames". If you are scum I really hope you aren't. It was this post that started your resurgence On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote: I like how Probulous is pressuring people, gives me a town feel. I doubt scum would want to start town discussion as badly as him at this point. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote: I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 13:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, more then one. But the one that worries me the most. You better come here soon and explain that. I hate it when some players just post "I'll give my thoughts in a second" and never show up, whether town or scum. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote: haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) Again, this is what I'm talking about. Also, your "joke" doesn't help us at all. If you are town, you just confused the hell out of every one of us, you appeared scummy as hell and we will waste time and effort analyzing this "joke" of yours. If you are scum, then you can just use it as a justification for making a super-scummy-OMGUS first post and get away with it. Or you can use it to confuse town. Doesn't help us at all. And with this "I will analyze more" but not doing anything makes me think you are the 2nd. For now I'll pressure vote Xeris to come here and post his thoughts, but if we have nothing to go on by the time the day ends I'll vote for you ##Vote: Xeris + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 01:44 CatsnHats wrote: Lurking around at the beginning, writing a paragraph of text that amounts to nothing, and then OMGUS-ing the person that prods you... not a good look Gretorp. Pretty scummy if you ask me. Is it scummy enough for you to vote him? + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:13 CookieMaker wrote: Incorrect: We get more information, especially if we can get the participation level up a little bit. There's also going to be more posts from all players(god hopefully) before the day is through. Clearly the pool of prime lynch candidates is shallow at the moment. I will be voting for the player with the lowest vote total until I see a better option. I don't like how you are advocating the "no-lynch" here. You also say you will vote for "the player with the lowest vote total". Why would you do that? Are you trying to avoid voting anyone so no suspicions fall on you? The whole "no-lynch" discussions could be a way to justify yourself into doing this and just not having to deal with any votes or pressures whatsoever and have a free pass throughout the game. Also, I'd like to see your thoughts on Gretorp. You point out that scum-hunting is the priority and that trust is pretty useless. I like your pressure on Sheth and Gretorp to post, even though Sheth had actually posted his stuff already. Your point about Cats wishy-washiness on Gretorp was well received. But the best thing was you pointed out Cookie’s stupidity for voting for the lowest total. I noticed that too. The rest of your posts got better and better except for the diversion about random voting. No-one was suggesting it, Xeris mentioned and bam, the thread goes into diversion over-drive. Come on people stay focused. Those are my green feels These people are null to me
Mostly due to lack of posting but in Sheth’s case, he started well but his unwillingness to go after Cephiro took him back to null. Something Jitsu pointed out. Come on Sheth, apply the blow torch. So onto my Scum reads. I will go from easiest read to hardest, might need an extra post for the last one CookieMaker Your first post was terrible. Here it is in all its glory On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor You point out the lack of roles. Why bring up roles. People have read the OP, they should see the lack of roles for themselves. Besides, we can do nothing about that and we don’t want to out our blues, if we have any. Why focus on them. Only scum do that. You then point out the lack of scum killing power, alright fair point. But then the rest of that paragraph is just filler about pressure which is always there. Finally you end with a point about voting for mayor which doesn’t even exist. Not a great way to start the game. Your next post is useful to me as you point out me missing the second setup option. But then you raise the possibility of a DT. Why? Again, this does nothing for how we play the game and can only serve to out our blues. Then comes the kicker On January 04 2012 11:33 CookieMaker wrote: DAY 1: Right now from my perspective we have the following lynching objectives as town: 1. Not Lynch Innocents -The only way we can be absolutely certain of this to happen is with a no-lynch (tied vote). -This benefits us strongly if there is a DT in the game. It is understandable that the DT won't reveal because of the threat of being killed. 2. Lynch mafia -Currently hopeful at best. Statistically extremely low chance of getting this right, especially with mafia votes. Right now I'm in favor of a no-lynch until more pressure is applied and reads can be made. Number one priority is always to lynch scum. We cannot kill them any other way. My point was that a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch, which is obvious really. You however took to be better than a lynch of mafia. Sorry scum you don’t get away that easy. You keep digging your hole when Jitsu rightly points out the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. When I ask Cats for his thoughts on you, you respond with a snarky "Jab and dodge eh? I like your style. " If you don’t like something, say it. This kind of soft undermining is exactly what mafia would do. You cast doubt without specifically saying anything. I wanted Cats to analyse you specifically because he had changed his position away from yours. I wanted to see him argue. The rest of that post is just filler. You have come back to thread since then but I have not had time to analyse your posts. At this point, pushing a no-lynch over lynching mafia, focusing on blue roles and undermining both myself and Cats with snarky comments makes you mafia bro. CatsnHats This one caused me pain. I had you pegged as an uncertain newb at first, but you haven’t redeemed yourself. Sheth rightly pointed out the extreme uncertainty of this first post On January 04 2012 11:52 CatsnHats wrote: Yeah I'm around. Just reading the thread and getting a sense of the situation since I've never played before. It would seem that not lynching unless reasonably certain would be the way to go. Although I'm not sure how we could be certain of anything on D1. I want to point out the emphasis on his newness. Apologising for being new is a great way to excuse yourself from participating. Sheth calls you out and you respond with more uncertainty On January 04 2012 12:34 CatsnHats wrote: Thanks CookieMaker for the link. And you're right Sheth, if I am leaning toward no lynch that would be a red flag for scum. But wouldn't emphatically being in favor of a lynch be a red flag for scum too since the odds are in favor of townie being accidentally chosen? Oh God this is gonna be so meta. Why explain the WIFOM? This post adds nothing and keeps you painted as not wanting to make a stand. When Sheth puts the blowtorch you respond with On January 04 2012 14:06 CatsnHats wrote: But it's so hard to counteraggressive to the nicest guy in esports! Haha thanks for the advice. Lynching someone is definitely the way to go. Any information gleaned, even at the cost of a townkill, is better than no info at all. I don't have a lot new to add that hasn't been said already, but that's my stance. As for picking who to lynch, I going to reserve judgement until the last few people have started posting. Sheth, that was bad. Don’t let him off the hook. You finally take a stand in the most conciliatory way possible. You say lynching is definitely the way to go, then again emphasize your newness. We specifically ask you to take a stand and you discredit it in the same breath that you make it. BAD! I then specifically ask you to analyse Cookie, because you had changed your stance to opposite of his. I wanted you to argue for your position, provide something to thread. You have not responded to this post. On January 04 2012 14:21 Probulous wrote: If you are finding it difficult to add stuff to the thread, try playing devils advocate with the position you have taken. Read the thread carefully and find posts that are not consistent. I am glad you have taken a stance but you need to be sure why you chose it and be prepared to argue it. Sheth is being generous, your ealier post was very wishy-washy and was a legitimate reason to pressure you. I am still not convinced you are town, prove it to me by posting some analysis. What are your thoughts on CookieMaker? Cookie even got a little touchy about me asking you. I come back this morning (my time) hoping for an analysis of Cookie and I get this On January 05 2012 01:25 CatsnHats wrote: If Cephiro won't analyze himself, I will. You've advocated lynching from the beginning and have added a lot of original content in the way of statistics and your recent D1 analysis. And even though you admitted earlier that you consider yourself good at mindgames, I still have a town read on you for now. I also agree that Probulous is strongest town read right now. He has put himself in the spotlight from the beginning with his magnitude of posts, trying to rally the town to discuss and such. It would be hard, especially as the game goes on, to stay with the attention on him that much if he was mafia. As for my flip-flopping of position, I hope you all can excuse it as my one noobie mistake. I want to clarify that this is my first game ever of mafia in any medium (forum or IRL), not just on TL. And you won't hear anymore noobie excuses from me after this. Cepiro, alright I have him pegged as well. What the hell is that analysis? Original content? Day stats that were useless filler? His Day 1 analysis is so soft and contradictory it is enough to lynch him alone. So instead of responding to me you “go after” Cephiro with three lines of nothing. You point out I am town, which is obvious by this point. Then point out your flip-flop again as a newbie mistake. You realize you can’t really use this excuse so you say it is the last time. So mate, too late. The rest of your posts are also non-aggressive crap. You don’t like Tunk’s aggression even though he his taking stance and pushing people. You then getting upset with Gretorp for his stupid first post. For everyone listening both Gretorp’s and Xeris first posts say nothing! That does not mean they are scummy. It means they are yet to contribute, call them out on that. But even when you have a target for your vote you write this On January 05 2012 04:17 CatsnHats wrote: I said this earlier in regard to Gretorp's first post and I still stand by it. He backs off in his second post but adds nothing, just promising analysis later, which I look forward to seeing because right now I'm suspicious . @Sheth You would have a better read on Gretorp though since you have played with him before and invited him to this game. What do you think about his first posts? Wishy-washy again. You were called out for being non-commital and this is how you commit? Then Gonz, please his soul, calls you out for not voting and you respond with On January 05 2012 05:37 CatsnHats wrote: @gonzaw I haven't voted for Gretorp because I thought we weren't supposed to vote until near the end of D1. Throwing a vote out with so many hours left to use for reads isn't very smart. Plus I was waiting for his response, as well as the first posts of Xeris and the return of Blurry, who seems to have fallen off the face of the Earth. You say that you didn’t vote for Gretorp because and I quote ”I thought we weren’t supposed to vote near the end of D1.” But then you don’t follow it up with a vote. SCUM! Right Cephiro is next but he will need his own post | ||
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You are one smart SOB, but not smart enough Mr Scum. I am going to go slowly because you have a lot of posts and you look like your contributing, but when you look closely, you ain’t saying nothing! Your first post On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Sheth rightly pointed out the lack of content in this post. It looks great from a distance but says nothing. I point this out and you eventually play down the stats. More damning from my point of view is your support for Cookie’s first post. His post was way worse than mine, but you call me out and my stupid pun and support him? You still haven’t explained how what I wrote was a supposed “scum-slip” but it was enough to paint me suspicious straight up. In addition, you like Cookie go on about blue roles. This is a scum tactic, there is no reason for town to discuss the possible setup until we have information from the night events. Anything else risks outing blues, but you keep on about it. Then comes a nice filler post On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) Your response to my question about what purpose the stats offer is On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote: Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. In other words, nothing. The rest is fairly decent. Again I pressure you on what purpose the stats offer and you finally agree that it means nothing. On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. But then you go again about the setup. If the stats of the setup mean nothing, than the setup itself means nothing. We cannot get any info from discussing it until we have night actions. These posts are long but you haven’t actually said anything. You look like your contributing but you aren’t. Your last post of the night was On January 04 2012 12:21 Cephiro wrote: Yeah, it's my first forum game ever. Haven't played this anywhere else either. I've read through quite a bunch of advanced games on different forums though, and I generally consider myself good at mindgames or understanding what people think / why they do something etc. So I'm really excited to see if it's correlates to success in here. Yeah, you heard right, watch out mafia! I am going to sleep now though. I will re-read the thread (especially the new posts) a few times once I wake up and will try to join in as much as I can. If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch. I do agree that we could pressure vote lurkers/inactives later on in D1, hopefully forcing them to defend themselves and give us better reads. Is there anything in there that helps town to catch scum? The only thing you say is that if you can’t catch scum, try and prove people are town, but of course you don’t do anything like that do you? Wishy-washy trash. Now my personal favourite, your analysis. I will you credit for being the first person to post one but god damn you could not have done a worse job. I am going to go through each person and see how wrong you can be. On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. You lean town because ” But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game” Earth to Cephiro, it is everyone’s first (second or third) game. That is no excuse. Essentially you are saying that you disagree with everything he says but think he is town because this is his first game? BAD Cephiro! 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. At this point he had done more than Cookie. He had attempted to out scum by pressuring Cats. A point you recognize. I want you to read this again and again an try tell me why a town would say this ” Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content?” Sheth had a reason, he made it clear. Cats was being non-commital. Even if he had not reason, pressure outs people. It is always good at this stage of the game. For this you paint him less town than Cookie AND slightly scummy? BAD Cephiro! 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. I’m fine with this 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. Cephiro, Cephiro, I know you wanted to speak but damn, Tunkeg has had the best posting yet. Much better than yours. You even say ” Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points.” Voting for a lurker is pressuring them to participate. Sure it may have been a safe move, but you can’t say shit since you haven’t even voted yet. You cast doubt on how successful his pressuring will be but don’t offer anything else. In essence you are undermining his methods which you even admit that “He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on” Please try and explain why a townie would try and discredit the way someone is trying to out scum without offering an alternative? Any effort is good effort and all your “analysis” does is undermine Tunkeg. You have no proof for why he might be scummy other than his aggressiveness but even that you say is because he wants to start discussion. You admit you have nothing on him, so why cast doubt on his methods? BAD Cephiro! 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. Good lordy, he was the first person to pressure Cookie about the stupidity of advocating a no-lynch. That is a damn site more than you have done and far and beyond Cookie, but no Cookie is slightly town but Jitsu is null? BAD Cephiro! 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. Fine with these. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. This is where you sunk your ship. I agree that Gonz is town but put these two quotes together Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here You give the first a slight scum/neutral read and the second a town read. BAD Cephiro! 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. Fine with these (obviously). 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! This says nothing about Cats at all. You say one thing then produce a nice WIFOM to discredit what you just said. You actually say anything about him at all. I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. Whatever man, you are heading for a lynch ## Vote Cephiro | ||
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On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me. This was the last post I read before I started my analysis (I think, can't be 100% certain since it was ages ago) On January 05 2012 07:00 gonzaw wrote: Ehmm Jitsu, when I said I wanted your thoughts on Liquid/Gretorp/Cats/etc I meant it lol. But really, what are your thoughts on these players? So no I had not read your thoughts. Reading now | ||
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On January 05 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Hey Probulous. I don't know if you saw this before you posted. It was about 2 hours before you posted so it's in the time range you gave for not being able to read it yet. It includes my thoughts on CookieMaker you asked for. As for Xeris and Gretorp. I don't think not contributing at this point is an excuse for them being clean. In regards to make vote, I asked for clarification on the voting process and AnxiousHippo answered. I didn't want to be locked in because there are 23 hours left til the deadline. After I learned that I wouldn't be locked in, I voted for Gretorp to pressure him to add content. I even explained that in the post quoted below. I hope you just hadn't read these yet. Otherwise you just picked posts that supported your case and blatantly left off the one's that exonerated me. It doesn't exonerate you in my eyes. You do eventually vote, but it is the safest play possible. Plus even though Gretorp has not posted much he noticed the same things I did before I posted. Green in my eyes. Cephiro is posting like a mad man without saying anything. He accuses people but never votes, when he does it is for an inactive. I am sorry but we are not voting for an inactive today. Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? You either think these guys are the mafia, or someone who is posting actively is. Besides, if they don't contribute we lynch them tomorrow. Hopefully they don't post at all and get mod-killed. Inactives, lurkers are not a problem. I think it is highly likely that there are active mafia trying to push a lurker wagon. Hence, no lurker lynch for me, there is enough evidence for other mafia, lynch them. | ||
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##vote: Cephiro I don't mind doing it more than once | ||
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On January 05 2012 11:01 Jitsu wrote: @Probulous Going to skip reading your Cephiro filter until I can look it over, since you obviously think you have him tagged as most scum. I don't want to be biased from you're post. Fair play but take particular notice to his "analysis", it is damning in my eyes. | ||
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On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Thanks for nailing the coffin. In the same post, the very same post, you quote Jitsu as explaining your thinking clearly and then says he is suspicious because his content is fluffy? Surely, a normal logical response is just to ask Jitsu to provide more thinking, because what he has provided has been useful. Instead you cast doubt on him. Either you think he is suspicious and act on it, or you don't and act on it. Here you do neither, you give and take in the same post. The irony is that you berate Cats for not taking a stand but you do exactly the same thing. | ||
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Gretorp (2): Tunkeg, CatsnHats Cephiro (1): Probulous CookieMaster (1): Gonzaw Have I missed anyone? This is what searching "##" brings up so if you didn't, your vote is not counted. | ||
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Updated: Just a voting update since we none in the OP Gretorp (2): Tunkeg, CatsnHats Cephiro (2): Probulous, Sheth CookieMaster (1): Gonzaw Have I missed anyone? This is what searching "##" brings up so if you didn't, your vote is not counted. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Hang on, this part is really bad The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote: [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also Probulous, something I want to clear: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote: Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time). Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely I still stand by what I said. Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there? Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved? For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before. If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked. It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later. Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but + Show Spoiler + Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM? Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. I like you WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again. Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread. I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:36 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, I kinda agree with this too. I'd thought that anyone willing to start a lynch for a scum (If they were scum) would be crazy or bad. However in this set up with the KP always at one, I geuss its probably not a bad idea to lynch off a mafia first round. Or second round or whatever as long as your the one who brings up the case it should make you more townie. And honestly I still think it is going to make you crazy townie if he flips scum. However arguments like "well he started off the train on killing XXXX and he was mafia, so you must be town" really shouldn't be used here. As unless the mafia has a role (Roleblocker) hes not that important except for in the percentages game. The percentage game is still pretty important though. I don't see mafia starting a bus on one of their players right off the bat. It'd be too meta for me. Percentage wise (and with correct manipulation) its rare that first day lynches are mafia. And it really hurts mafia to lose one of the 3, when theres 9 town left. 2-8 or 3-8, those 3 left over can be so convincing. And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!! how exactly do these posts give you REALLY pro-town read On January 05 2012 04:42 Xeris wrote: I don't favor randomly lynching people in the first night -- unless there is some actual suspicion. Statistically, maybe it's better to random lynch, but I feel like the chances you might randomly kill a cop // medic make it not worth it. I prefer using the first day to try to get reads on people, then wait until Day 2 to use the information gained in Day 1, based on who ends up dying / etc to make a more reasoned/educated prediction about who might be mafia. Randomly lynching is a really stupid idea. On January 05 2012 05:34 Xeris wrote: If there are legitimate concerns about someone on the first day, sure, I'd probably participate in a lynch. But I don't really see how you can determine that on the first day when you have basically NO information to go off. Further, because this is online mafia, you can't even read people the same way... I don't see how you can possibly get a good enough ready on someone in the first day, before any action has happened, enough to confidently lynch someone. It is just some posting about the stupidity of Random lynching which no-one was advocating at the time. If anything it is filler but it doesn't contribute. To me Gretorp has actually called out Cephiro for his waffle, which is more than Xeris has done. Come on man, you are making it hard for me. Think about this carefully And as for your analysis, well I'm showing here why your analysis that his flip won't tell us anything. In honesty if he flips town, it makes you look a lot more like mafia. And if he flips Mafia it makes you look a lot more like town. For those reasons below. If hes town I'm under the same thing and maybe were mafia buddies starting a train on a poor little townie. Whether he flips Town or Mafia says nothing about you or me. I am pushing his case based on what he has provided. I don't know whether he Mafia for sure, but he is the most likely. he is also the most dangerous because people don't seem to see what I see. If he flips town I am no more Mafia than if he flips Mafia. What is your read on Cookie? Particulary in light of Jistu's post. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:35 CookieMaker wrote: @Probu: Very interesting how we seem to be the only two doing any real research before pointing the finger, yet coming up with such a contrasting detailed analysis. I like your format style, btw. One thing I want to clear up: Be careful reading Ceph's "nail int he coffin post" again though. All of your analysis on that post was based on the contrast between quoting Jitsu and then giving a suspicious read on him. In fact, Jitsu asked him a question earlier and the response he was giving was about my posting habits thus far. More reads, as promised: Here is #2 Sheth: + Show Spoiler + Pros: Sheth I like, although mainly because of his posting style (and probably my fanboyism). He opened early by putting pressure on Cats and forcing the development of dialogue in the first 24 hours. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:17 Liquid`Sheth wrote: CatsnHats, welcome to your first game of mafia. You say "Not lynching unless reasonably certain". This is a scummy thing to say, as its leaning towards not lynching today. You realize there is no way to be "reasonably certain" on day one. Get it together and find some scum, or I'm picking you for our day one lynch. He showed he was unafraid of initially being provocative. One other big indicator for me was going back and actually re-reading his filter from his election Mafia. (Link) In the vast majority of these posts he asks a lot of garbage questions that screamed scum at me, while providing little good content analysis in return Cons: His open reference to "changing his playstyle" (below) had me initially worried. For the record "arctocod" was greenie in Election Mafia, but had more of a "moderation" feel than Sheth is currently giving me. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:17 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read. This is invaluable to us, and please use any reads you have on me. I'm actually going to try and post like Arctocod did in our last game. The open reference to his previous playstyle was interesting to me, and I wanted to see how it would play out. The other two things that Sheth did to initially worry me have since given me the feeling that he was just settling back into a more natural position in the game. Under other circumstances, I'd call them wishy-washy, but because I've followed him as a fan for so long I truly believe he has this deep-rooted instinct to do good, and simply can't bring too much harm to others until he's sure of their alignment. They are: 1. Letting Cats out of the pressure cooker before any real pressure was applied. On January 04 2012 13:47 Liquid`Sheth wrote: CatsnHats come on, be counteragressive. I'm picking on you for no real reason. I just want to get you to toughen up. If it comes down to it at the end and someone is agressive like this against you, and you just KNOW hes mafia, you better toughen up. I'm chalking this up to Sheth feeling bad for "almost" ruining Cats' game. Clearly Cats is a newbie and Sheth knows that badwagons are a very scary thing for a newbie on their first day. 2. Doing a bit of flip-flopping. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. However this morning you posted Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. @Tunkeg we shall see. CatsnHats what do you think about this Gretorp guys first too posts. Good / bad / scummy?!? This one I'm more convinced isn't flip-flopping, but rather just openly stating his opinion at an opportune time (despite the lack of real content in the post). Current Read: Light Green. Relatively certain on town-ship, but still open to the possibility that I am blinded by fanboyism. You know, I have shovel that might help you dig that hole a lot faster As Jjitsu points out, I am not lynching a Townie, so why find one? Find me a scum and I might listen. Cephiro may have been responding to a question but I cannot find a reason why town would cast suspicion on someone, without calling them out. If you think they are not contributing, you say so and if necessary vote for them. That post reads as someone trying to look like they are contributing without standing in the spotlight. It just adds to the everything else I have posted about him. | ||
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On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that. Both Gretorp and Xeris are still null for me. I know this isn't scum-hunting but I have done a lot already so forgive me for this diversion. In short, no. If my analysis is good, and Cephiro turns out to be town, that means that Cephiro was a very scummy town. Right? It does not mean that I am mafia. I could be, but I could also be a town pushing who I think is mafia. How do you tell the difference? By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red. Simply put you cannot tell whether I am town by whether Cephiro flips mafia or not alone. It is a classic WIFOM position. Would Scum bus or not bus, in my opinion who cares? You can only tell by going back and reading my case on him. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 12:33 Probulous wrote: I like you WIFOM is bad, yes what I wrote was WIFOM but it was hardly necessary to the point I was making. I do not believe that all mafia are lurking, sure people can vote them, I won't be one of them. But I concede your point about me WIFOming. I won't do it again. Discussing it helps no-one. If we have a situation where this comes up, for example people claiming, we discuss it then. Not now. It clogs up an already busy thread. I am not a smurf, so don't insinuate that I am. If people think I am dangerous, great. Try and be dangerous too. I don't want to be the only one pushing my reads hard. If you find someone suspicious, go after them hammer and tongs. What's a smurf? 2 different accounts or something? No I'm not implying that (also it doesn't really matter), the fact is that you are playing like those other players, and that makes you dangerous in my book. Ehm, I prefer to discuss WIFOM in the early stages, preferably at the beginning of Day 1 where everybody derps and there is no discussion going on at all, than in the heat of an argument or something on Day 4 or Day 5 should the need arise. Imagine something happens in a night that makes people talk about WIFOM (maybe a Medic dies and someone claims RBed, or something). -If we hadn't discussed it before, then people would start doing it at that time. That would take away precious time to catch scum, could interfere with ongoing arguments, etc, specially if we are at LYLO or something -If we had discussed it before, then as soon as someone mentions anything you tell them "shut up and reread the thread, it was discussed before if you continue we lynch you" and bye bye WIFOM interference. For instance, if someone claims RBed, and another person says "Wait! He could be scum fake-claiming! bla bla bla" I will instantly shut him up and tell him to reread what I posted earlier. Also, just so the discussion about WIFOM doesn't become a WIFOM discussion itself (in the sense that it interferes ongoing discussions), let's just stop right here. Either agree or disagree, we can discuss it in Post-Game or Pre-Game of another game later. Yes a smurf is a vet playing under a different name. I disagree but we can leave it for post-game. If that situation came up I woudl tell people to shut-up about and if they didn't listen would make my own case and push it. If we lose because people are derps that is not my problem. I cannot make you vote one way or another if you are not willing to listen. Anyway, leave it for now and we can discuss afterwards. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:08 CookieMaker wrote: Then it's a good thing I caught up before posting #3. Your evidence was everything I had against Cats. My plan was to transition out of "Sheth should have put more pressure on him" into "... and this is why". I felt like I was getting unlucky after analyzing 4-5 players and coming up with zero good scum reads and only 1-2 town reads (despite the consensus against Ceph, I'm still confident in my read). Finally when I stumble upon a clear winner for wishy-washy of the year award, you've already beaten me to it. Cats was going to be my big expose'. ##Vote for CatsnHats Your vote is formatted incorrectly Mr Scum. Post what you had on Cats, I want to see your anlaysis on why someone is scum. You can't sheep Jitsu and expect no-one to call you out on it. You post green read after green read and only when called do you attempt a scum hunt and then you claim someone elses work. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:21 gonzaw wrote: Players do that? Why? Agreed.... See the first Student Mafia ElectricBlack was Palmar's smurf and Blazinghand was WBG's. In this case it was to coach but sometimes people smurf because they want to survive night one. If a vet comes into a game with a repuation for hunting scum, they are already a target, hence the need for a smurf. | ||
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On January 05 2012 13:23 CatsnHats wrote: Also why would Cookie flip red too? He's been on my scum list from the beginning and he has now voted for me. Bad WIFOM, bad! Your vote says nothing about Cookie and visa versa. If both of you are scum there is no way to tell whether you are bussing each other or not, so ignore it. My understanding of Jitsu said was essentially you two are behaving similarly and look similarly scummy. Thus if one flips it is likely the other will. | ||
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I had Cats pegged as scum already, nothing he has done has convinced me otherwise. I would be willing to change my vote if Cephiro is not going to get lynched today. But only once he has returned. | ||
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The point is that if I find some scummy and they turn out to be wrong. Read the analysis. Of course as town you want to prove someone is scum by nailing them to the wall if you are town. You would do it less conclusively if you were scum. You tell the difference by the analysis, not by the vote. That is all I am trying to say, because people can easily get this impression that if you make a huge post calling someone out you cannot be unintentionally wrong. On January 05 2012 13:33 Liquid`Sheth wrote: @Probulous you initially said " Think about it carefully, I have pushed my case based on his posts. If I am wrong, what does that tell you? Nothing! I have exactly the same information as anyone else. You don't like my analysis, show me why, but Cephiro's impending lynch says bugger all about my alignment." I agreed that nothing conclusive comes out of a lynch. However even if your analysis is perfect it still says other things as well. Things that make someone look scummier or townier. You then say By the quality of the analysis. The same is true if he flips mafia, I agree it is unlikely that mafia would bus day 1. However, they could, the point being speculating about it gives us nothing. In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find. If I put together a thorough analysis on someone and they flip town, go back and read my analysis. Was I pushing something too far, was I focusing on some small irrelevant detail? That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red. This post really confuses me. You say both "townie cred only exists from the scum you find" then "That gives you clues to my alignment, not whether he flips green or red" when you'd just said that it did matter if he flips red. Come on, it matters if he flips red for this reason. When mafia want the game to start they don't want to kill off their town members first. Its clear. So even if you want to show your difference from other members you put pressure on them. You put small to medium pressure on. So later if they flip you can say "oh look I pressured them!" You don't write up a huge proof and then really try to nail them to the wall. I feel like I'm talking too much about this, but it bothers me that your not see'ing the same things I am here and you are my towniest read. On January 05 2012 13:36 gonzaw wrote: But it kind of defeats the purpose of "Newbie Mafia". It's not fun having a vet shredding newbies to pieces in a game that doesn't correspond to him just because he "wants to survive night 1". It also means that he's free from having his meta used against him. Why should he have that "advantage" and other players not? Okay, what is this? If he flips town or mafia (if he's lynched) it will tell alot about a lot of players. Isn't that the reason we were advocating a misslynch earlier? If he flips town, then it means your whole argument regarding him was false. It means that you "misread" a townie and advocated his lynch. Why would you do that? Were you honestly mistaken or did you do it intentionally? Regarding how you react to his flip, and looking at your filler, many players can conclude many things from this. You are basicly implying that if he flips town, then you are not suspicious and nobody should look at you. That would be pretty convinient if you are mafia, and pretty dickish if you are town. I am not implying that if he flips town you shouldn't find me suspicious. On the contrary I am saying that if he flips town you should re-read the analysis and make up your mind based on that. I can't get someone lynched on my own, I have to convince people. If a townie gets lynched it cannot only be my fault, other must have voted too. How do you tell the scum? Through their reasons for voting, mine is my analysis. That is all I am trying to say, people's votes can give you a feel but they can also lead you to make assumptions that are wrong. Be careful! Read Ver's Guide if you want to know what I am saying. Specifically the last paragraph, actually here is the quote Now, what if by some miracle, Youngminii was lynched and flipped green, or worse, vigilante? What would that have said about Foolishness? Think hard and carefully here, because this is a logic issue that really has plagued the town in so many TL games, especially this one. At its core is the question: what does "lynching for information" actually mean? The lynch outcome alone would have said nothing about Foolishness! If Foolishness is veteran, how does he have any definite knowledge of what Youngminii is? He doesn't, therefore he can only do his best and try to figure out YM's role from the tools he has. That in itself does not distinguish him from Godfather Foolishness one bit. The key distinction between the two is to look at how he got Youngminii lynched and his overall play, not that he got Youngminii lynched. The latter fact, while not entirely irrelevant, is nowhere near sufficient enough on its own to warrant a lynch (and everyone knows if YM had popped up vigi Foolishness would've been autokilled the next day). Thus it would be nonsensical to lynch YM because you think it will give the most information (the information is next to useless). The only reason to lynch YM, or virtually anyone ever, is to kill mafia. That's it. | ||
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We agree that a vote alone tell you nothing. I should have rewritten this "In my land, townie cred only exists from the scum you find" as "In my land, townie cred only exists from how you scum hunt." In some ways finding scum can be a lucky gut feel. Proving they are scum is not but correctly identifying them depends a lot on how they post. I am trying to make sure that people read the reasons others give for voting. This is both before and after the lynch. I obviously have not been clear and perhaps this should be dropped for now. | ||
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Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? Can we try to agree on something :p This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden. | ||
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I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame | ||
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On January 05 2012 14:20 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok, well I'm going to sleep now. I wasn't completely sure if the DT for one mafia was a good trade or not, so I brought it up to see everyone's reactions. I am leaning its probably good, if they have some other confirmed townies for sure. And this will all changed when we learn whether someone was RB'ed during night. (Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out). I want to hear more on that, and our cases from our lurkers. Look forward to reading your post when I wake up Andre. Keep posting Duran! And probulous we can agree on some things I'm sure :D! Why Sheth Just when you are looking good you write something that comes across really scummy. You are also making the same mistake I originally did, here are the setup options. Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town They can have a roleblocker with no blue roles. It just means that if someone is roleblocked, there are either no power roles or both DT and Medic. No point speculating now. I know you are heading to bed but who are your top 3 scum reads, please before tomorrow morning. Can we got a vote count please? | ||
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On January 05 2012 14:45 CatsnHats wrote: For the record, I guess it is possible that Jitsu, Sheth, and Prob are the three mafia trying to pressure me from the beginning into voting for a target of their choice. I find it highly unlikely, however, that all three of you would be so vocal and hold such a majority of the spotlight, as this would certainly be a risky play. So I feel good about the vote switch. I just wanted to get this thought out there. Again, don't tell us who you think is town, who are the mafia? If you don't think Sheth, Jitsu and myself are mafia, why cast suspicion on us? You're seemingly convinced that both CM and Cephiro are mafia based off of other people's analysis. Who is the third mafia? | ||
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As of now my lynch preference is Cephiro > CatsnHats / CookieMaster I am happy to lynch any of them. If someone can put together a really strong case for someone else, I will read and consider it, but it would have to be water tight for me to change. Sorry but timezones screw me over and I am only one vote anyway. | ||
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Welcome A Killer Cup of Tea. Given you have only a short while till lynch and you are a replacement, I would suggest asking questions of everyone is just taking time away from reading the thread. Your best bet to save yourself is come up with who think is mafia and why. We can judge you on that. Lynch Cephiro. He has sullied this town for too long. Finally, CookieMaker, if you are reading I hope you didn't take my case on you as a personal thing. It was just a case and as you see everyone who I think is scum gets the same treatment. Chat later! | ||
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On January 06 2012 06:50 Tunkeg wrote: Well my biggest scumread is CM/AKCT. I have Ceph on pretty neutral. So I will stick by my vote. I will go to bed in like 45 minutes, and I really don't want a no-lynch. So please the rest of you who haven't voted, please vote and make your vote count. Hey Tunk before you go to bed let me explain claerly why Cephiro is a better bet than CM/AKCT. If you reread CM filter he is clearly afraid to take positions, unfortunately this can be explained by being new. Yes we are all new and his posturing doesn't help but at least he awas active and gets more ascertive as time goes on. I also think it is fair to let AKCT have a little time to make a presence. That being said, so far not good I still have a scum read but it isn't as strong as Cephiro's. AS you point out Ceph pops into the thread and then disapears, we have less than 2 hrs to lynch, why do this? As town if you are suspected with a split majority, surely you are going to be put some effort into absolving yourself, immediately! My biggest concern is his contradictory nature, he goes on about how people show be provacative and push reads, and pressure people, and then labels them scummy when they do. From his reads it seems he likes newbies who are wishy-washy more than people willing to take a stand. Read his section on you and try and see why a townie would say that? He agrees with what you are doing, then labels you scummy because of it? He does this the whole game. Gives with one hands, takes with the other. He is happy casting doubt on people without any evidence but never actually takes a stand. He must swing by his neck until dead. Please cahnge your vote. For the next two hours I will pushing people to lynch him. | ||
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On January 06 2012 07:08 Cephiro wrote: As I already admit earlier, I did end up agreeing that the stats would not be useful in early game, which is why I didn't ramble on about them further. I do not agree with you on your claim that there would be NO reason for town to discuss the setup until information from night events. Why? Because even though we are all newbies, there may be people with more experience and others with less. This enables the more experienced players to ensure that if a total "idiot" townie would have got a power role, it wouldn't be misused. Here we disagree, I see no reason for town to try and tell blues what to do. The blue has no idea whether that person is truly town or a good scum, it doesn't help them either. Besides what you guy were speculating about is useless on Day 1. Fluff, smoke and mirrors. Regarding your joke, I took it up to fish for reactions and give you a poke. I wanted to see if you would try to explain yourself more in-depth, or just regard it as a joke and excuse yourself not needing to analyze it any further. Which was fine for me, since I knew that message had no real meaning, I got what I wanted. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor Why should I not support this post? In my opinion it provides a few basic, yet good points for people to remember. I do agree the latter part is just fluffy theorycrafting about someone leading the mafia, that doesn't really matter. To compare, this is your first post: + Show Spoiler + Probalous wrote on January 04 2012 10:12 I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable. With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! I bolded the single only thing in your post that wasn't just fluff talking. There's not really a big difference if the guys have played 0 games or up to 1-2. But fine, I'm not blaming you for wanting to know, since it may be part of your strategy on making reads. The difference is that my post had a purpose for being able to make reads, which when you asked I made clear. I even stated there that I was placing high expectations on those that had played before. I also wanted background to read. You know this but try and paste my first post as worse than Cookie's? On January 05 2012 10:51 Probulous wrote: Then comes a nice filler post + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:54 Cephiro wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) I admit, this post doesn't have much content. If you didn't notice, you totally ignored my question (bolded) here. May I know for what reason? You are claiming me for having contentless posts at start, yet you should just see some of yours again. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote: There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it. Anyone that reads the rules knows there is no mayor. + The rest of the post is just your opinions about assumptions that are totally useless.[/quote] Face to palm. Of course everyone should know there is no mayor, that is why Cookie's post was so bad. He clearly didn't read the rules, I was just pointing it out. I was responding to his huge assumption that the game wasn't randomised and yes, stating my opinion that strong players will reveal themselves. No filler here. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining You join in the so-called useless power role discussion, yet you are providing false information about the setups yourself. That could easily be trying mafia to mislead, but in all honesty, I think you just did a newbie mistake which could happen to anyone. My point being: Try not to be too eager to call others on mistakes you have done yourself. Granted, but the both of you seemed to believe that discussing setups helps. I am was trying to find out why. You couldn't convince me. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:38 Probulous wrote: I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing. Sheth, you finished dinner yet? Gretorp, Cats are you guys around? Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late. Were you talking about fillers...? This is not filler, this is pointing out to Sheth, Gretorp and Cats that they need to contribute and their absence will not go un-noticed. A point that Sheth acknowledged. Nothing but fairly decent? I don't get you... And after this, as you pressure me on the usefulness of the stats, I finally realize that they aren't that useful earlygame, so after this I stop theorycrafting until later on. Read it again. It is two sentences, the first saying that stats mean nothing and the second that the rest of your post is alright. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote: Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though. Going on about the setup? Not really, I only mention the possibility of buying a possible DT more time, not going on about setups further than that. I am not contributing anything? I bold my statement which is along the lines of my original post. Point to something useful in that post. How on earth can you claim this post is just wishy-washy trash? The first part may be, but it's because I answered Gonzaw's question about how I seem to know about the game. Why should I have left it unanswered? Nope, there is no reason why I should've skipped that. So don't blame it as wishy-washy trash. Skipping genuine questions would just wake up suspicisions, and why would I want that as a townie? Also, of course I wouldn't do anything like that, what is that bullshit? I was the first person to share all my reads. You certainly weren't. Here is the most useful thing in that massive wall of text "If you have a hard time of trying to find out who is scum, then please do the town a favor and at least try to find some most-likely-town reads, since even that will help us narrow down the possible lynch" Something you hadn't done at that point. In fact despite your massive amount of posts before you left you hadn't actually said anything. You had provided soft thoughts and opinions on how people should play, but didn't back it up yourself. | ||
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On January 06 2012 07:11 Cephiro wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. You do realize that different persons react differently under pressure? If we put 10 persons in a situation none of them has ever been in, I can assure you that they will not react the same way. And my thinking here is that CM would be the type of person that would react in such a way. I can admit that's quite a long shot, but it's my read. I at no point said I disagree with everything he said, so you are putting words into my mouth here. Bad Probulous! I have no problem with you giving CM a town read based on his newness, but why not others that have clearly contributed more. You have a soft spot for him for no apparent reason. He has given plenty of reasons for not being town whilst others, who have done much more, get painted scummy? Your inconsistency for no reason doe snot makes sense if you are town. However, if you are mafia it makes perfect sense. Either CM is scum (likely) or he is an easy newb to sway. Oh and the only thing CM was pushing was a no-lynch (which you diagreed with) and your first line is "For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility." + Show Spoiler + 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. Maybe he had done more in your opinion. My opinion was that the only useful thing he had done (at that point), was that he had only pressured the new player, and then letting him off the hook just like that. The way he did it semt scummy to me, got a problem with that? I am just telling my genuine reads, don't like them, convince me otherwise. I was the first one to show everyone all my cards at that point, because I wanted to raise discussion. On the other hand, all you did is sat back and waited for everyone to talk, and came in with a huge-ass post later yourself. You left the scene since you were satisfied of most people considering you pro-town, and you slipped under pretty much everyone's radar, not many people were wondering why you weren't taking part in discussion. And when you came with your huge scumpost, all you did was provide very short explanation why you think some people are town, then stating "These are just neutral to me, that's it", and then moving all the attention into your huge scumpost. Effectively focusing everyone on your scumpost, and turning the attention away from yourself, to ensure people don't change their townread about you, but concentrate on believing on your accusations. I had Sheth pegged as null at that point. I even highlighted that he had let Cats of the hook. The difference between you and me is I give him credit for actually doing something. He was the first to call someone out. Big plus. CM has contributed nothing except his insistence on a no-lynch over a mafia lynch I certainly did not sit back on Day 1. You even mention that yourself. Bullshit indeed. Unlike scum, I don't really care if others thinks someone is town, I need to prove you are mafia. I wrote two text walls, of course I am going to focus on my scum cases. WTF? only scum want to point out the obvious. + Show Spoiler + 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. Safe move yes, but why should I not be allowed to say that aloud? You're not any better at this point, having posted far less content than me, waiting for your town-saving newspost. So you can't go aggressive on me for not voting at this point either, unless you admit your play was even worse. I am here also giving my genuine reads, I am not trying to undermine him in any way, I just posted my feeling about his methods. Should I have said bullshit such as "I think what he does is awesome", if I didn't really think so? I gave him a neutral read back then. I can go aggressive for you not voting because you call him out on his. Again he is actually doing somethinga nd you call him out for a safe play? You had even made that safe play. I did not call anyone out at that point because I was gathering evidence, once I had it I made pretty damn clear who I think is mafia and backed it up with a vote. You on the other hand cast suspicion on people for actually doing more than you have done. As for your reads, I can't see how a towns person would find someone placing the first vote as a bad thing. Especially when it is clearly to get people active (which you acknowledge). I find it even less plausible that you would place a newbie advocating a no-lynch over someone who takes the initiative to vote first. + Show Spoiler + 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. He had posted against the no-lynch in general, and called out on Hippo and Cookie in _ONE_ post by this point, which wasn't enough for me to get a solid read on him. If I am unsure, why should I not admit it? I also wanted to make him post more, so I was trying to provoke him with my claim of "Hasn't posted any actual content other than that". Which he then replied he has his reasons for. Fine, give him a null read, but why give the person he called out for their stupidity as a town read? By simple process of elimination he has to be more town than Cookie. + Show Spoiler + 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. Nothing to see here. + Show Spoiler + 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. Gonz and Tunkeg had very different playstyle in my opinion. Here you are putting words into my mouth again, which I am finding quote offending at this point, trying to make look worse than what I am. The first was a statement considering taking the first vote, and Tunkeg didn't encourage others to pressure vote at this point even though he did so himself, unlike Gonz who also suggested others to do that. There is a difference between doing something yourself and encouraging others to do it as well. The difference in their playstyle and between keeping the pressure voting to himself/encouraging it to everyone was the main reason I ended up reading Tunkeg as neutral and Gonz as town at this point. Here are the quotes in full For Tunkeg who gave a null read whilst questioning his methods. In bold is where you seem to be supporting him. Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. For Gonz who you gave a townie read. Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. The only difference between Tunk and Gonz is that Gonz suggested others follow suit? I don't get it, in the first post you are saying that being aggressive and putting votes down is not going to be succesful, but then give Gonz more townie credit for suggesting others do it? Contradictory much? + Show Spoiler + 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. Nothing to comment here. + Show Spoiler + 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'll admit that I did not analyse CatsnHats in the same way as others, I ended up concentrating too much telling him what he should do in my opinion. This was partly affected by the fact that I still thought he was too wishy-washy even after Sheth's early pressure, and I wanted to make sure that for example Sheth wouldn't get a grip on him, since I had Sheth as slightly scum at this point. Sorry mate, your noose is tightening. | ||
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Come on people choose your target between AKCT and Cephiro. | ||
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Please, change your votes to one of either Cephiro or AKCT. Otherwise we end up with a no-lynch, which we all agree is terrible. Come on take a stand for town and lynch these scum! | ||
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On January 06 2012 08:10 GreYMisT wrote: I'm fairly sure there are 2 hours until the deadline. Fucking timezones :p Apologies people, you should still be around. | ||
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On January 06 2012 08:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm here. however I have to leave soon. Probulous sense were the only two active are you willing to go on to AKCT? I'd rather get a lynch then none and we seem to be the only two willing to switch. I prefer Cephiro but if you are leaving than I guess so. ##vote A Killer Cuppa Tea | ||
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Would you vote for AKCT? From that post you think Sheth, Cats and myself are scum? Is that right? I don't want to put words in your mouth again so please label the three scum for me. Thanks for coming out guns blazing. | ||
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On January 06 2012 08:37 Cephiro wrote: Voted for AKCT. We need to get a lynch today. This will be a short post since I don't think I will have time for a full analysis, but at the moment the top-3 scumreads (in no particular order) for me are: Liquid`Sheth, CatsnHats, Gretorp. I am fairly sure that one of the lurkers is scum, even though I could be wrong. Gretorp has promised analysis twice, but nothing so far. Even though I do not like Xeris's overly safe play, I find Gretorp more scum than him at the moment. I was thinking about building a bigger case against you, since you seemed to go for me so aggressively, but even if I would like to see more of your reads on others, I think you have a reason to keep them to yourself for now, and you're just trying to pressure the hell out of who you think are scum. So I'm actually leaning town on you. I agree that Xeris, and Gretorp are looking bad, but that is mainly due to inactivity. At this rate they will be mod-killed for lack of a vote. You want more reads from me, fine, I will take a closer look at Sheth. Jitsu and Tunk are definitely town and I think Hippo is an unsure newbie town. Gonz is looking more green as time goes on. That leaves Blurry, Xeris, Gretorp and Sheth. The first three have posted virtually nothing, so Sheth it is. Do the others a favour and post your case on me. No-one else seems willing to do it. I know I am town but the others seem to have accepted it without question. | ||
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Way to save yourself bro. If you end up flipping green I am not going to be impressed. | ||
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AKCT that was terrible attempt at redemption. You don't vacate the thread two hours before lynch and never return. I'm going to take a break until just before the night ends. Will post my updated reads then. | ||
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On January 06 2012 10:06 gonzaw wrote: Hmm.. Okay guys, now reread every town and scum read from Cookie/Tea and knowing they were green. Also check everybody's reason for voting them, just like we were discussing with Prob, etc. Hey Prob, a question regarding the inactives: You really think Xeris and Gretorp ONLY (hyperbole here, don't dwell on it) look bad because they are inactive? What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?. Ok, one last post before I leave, you guys keep dragging me back in The problem I have is that the lack of posts makes it very hard to judge what Gretorp's motivations are. How do we tell whether he is a bored/timepressured townie or a mafia trying to lurk? I am more than happy for others to try and work it out but it would be a waste of time for me to try. Nothing they have done screams townie, but nothing screams mafia either. This because neither of them have done anything. Hence they are both null for the moment. I would implore my fellow townies to provide some analysis on why these guys are town/mafia. I just can't make up my mind based on what I've read. Finally both have been warned for lack of voting, if they do it again or don't post for 24hrs they will be modkilled. Why waste a lynch at this point that gives us no information? Better to lynch someone we think is scum than someone who may or may not be. | ||
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So here we go What do you think about Gretorp's "joke", "promise" of analysis' and failure to state so? It is bad play. No town should promise something and then not deliver. However he did point out the waffle nature of Cephiro's posting and his unwillingness to actually say someone is scum. On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote: cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) Hence until further posting arises he is null to me. What do you think about all the points I mentioned about Xeris? Him saying "I'm a good townie! Look at me!" and then undermining himself? Him posting thoughts about RL (same as Tea) when it was never discussed and failing to address any of these points when he was active?. Your analysis is pretty good. I always had him as more scummy than Gretorp. His avoidance of responsiblity and blatant trashing of any case presented is not helping. Neither is his lack of posting. He does look scummy but I still want to hear from him before making up my mind. @Sheth Given this was your reasoning for finding Xeris REALLY pro-town On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. and the fact that Xeris is no where to be seen and warned for not voting, has your positioned changed? He seems to be playing exactly as you would expect him to if he were mafia. | ||
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On January 06 2012 10:36 CatsnHats wrote: @Town: Cookie also had a slight green read on Sheth and a very scummy read on myself, which led to a vote against me. He didn't post his reasoning for it though other than giving a someone take my analysis before I could say post, which the town later pressured him on. He didn't answered the pressure though, and this was his last post before he was replaced with Tea. You're going to have to try that again son. Why are you pointing out Cookie's read on you? Does this help us find scum in any way? In short what is the point of posting this? | ||
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His life is unduly monotonous. He lives half asleep At the edge of the deep, And his face is as big as his bottom is. - anonymous Where you at son? Your reason for voting for AKCT was terrible I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea You didn't have enough time before the vote. What about now, who are your top three and why. Bonus points if there is someone who hasn't been pegged yet. | ||
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If you are town, fight for your life. I am pissed at AKCT for his apathy. You at least have been posting. Take a break and come back later with a case on someone. You realise if you throw in the towel and you are green you are severly handicapping the rest of us? You noticed that Hippo hasn't been contributing. Do what Gonz did and make people see your point of view. The argument against you is long and has substantial evidence. There isn't anything you can really do except be useful to town. I hate it when people do this. It is so passive aggressive and weak. Grow a spine and take the heat. If you get lynched, well better luck next time. But this, is aweful. | ||
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First off you placed a place holder vote as well, you have no right to call out others for lack of content. Cephiro's contradictory reasoning for voting for AKCT was noted but yours was far worse. On January 06 2012 08:36 AnxiousHippo wrote: I haven't been able to go through everything as well as I hoped but we need a lynch. There was a lot of discussion on Cephiro but I haven't been able to read through it thoroughly enough so I'm going for Tea ##Unvote: Xeris ##Vote: A Killer Cuppa Tea Can you explain why you went AWOL from the thread right before the lynch? To the point of not providing any reasoning for your vote and then when both Jitsu and myself call you out on it, you produce this post? It just parrot's everything I have been saying about Ceph and doesn't take into account anything that has happened since I posted it. Gretorp knows his analysis is expected, almost everyone has been requesting it. You point out Xeris looks scummy by asking exactly the same thing I did to Sheth. In fact you use the same quote and logic that I did without quoting me? Taking credit for work that isn't yours? This is trying to look like your contributing when you aren't. Reading your Cephiro post, you point out that he was playing it safe till the pressure came on. I put the pressure on and since then he has been better. His voting reason was terrible but his aggressive pressuring has been really good. You have no right to talk about playing it safe. Sheeping people left, right and centre and now parroting others to appear useful. Is this how you pressure people? Being excited has nothing to to do with the quality of his posting. Of all the things to point out, you use a throw-away line in a massive posts that I still maintain say almost nothing. If you want others to put the effort in, do it yourself. You started alright in this game. I had you pegged as a shy newbie. Your vote and this post are changing my mind. Give me something concrete. Here is a task for you. Take a look at the people who voted for AKCT because they didn't want a no-lynch. Especially the ones who had not aggressively pushed him before. The ones who voted for him even though they thought he was town. If there is no mafia in there than I am a monkey's uncle. Pick up your game Hippo, don't think we've forgotten you. On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. | ||
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On January 06 2012 10:40 Probulous wrote: @Sheth Given this was your reasoning for finding Xeris REALLY pro-town and the fact that Xeris is no where to be seen and warned for not voting, has your positioned changed? He seems to be playing exactly as you would expect him to if he were mafia. Sheth can you please answer this... | ||
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I am not going to post a massive text wall, it is 7:30am on a Saturday, give me a little break These things bothered me. He seems to really want to talk about blue roles, I don't see the value in this and the potential risk. If we have blues, discussing roles can lead to an outing which is bad for all. Despite my constant requests for this to stop, he has kept on about them. Most of his posts are fluff (admittedly discussions with me took up quite a few). He blatant support of Xeris with this as his reasoning Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you. That last line is particularly bad. It is clear that online and offline mafia are totally different, Sheth knows this from playing two games yet he is pretty certain that Xeris is town based on his offline play? The only reason you are certain of someone's alignment is when they flip or if you are scum. His case on Cookie amounted to Let me go re-read / filter cookie. His one post that stuck out to me was him defending Cephiro and saying he was extremely pro-town. Honestly though, with just remembering cookies lines I don't think anything really stuck out. Will go re-read now.. I read through CookieMaker's / A K C T's filter. Cookie's filter looked a little bad. He talked a lot about his read on CatsNHats and then never posted it. A K C T I like that your asking questions, but could you please post a few reads you have as well? Which was enough to put his scum list as @Probulous my 3 scummiest right now are probably Cookie ( A K C T ) / Cephiro and / Maybe blurry Cephiro pointed out his dropping of the Ceph case until I posted mine. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. So in short my read is still null I can justify what he says from both a townie and scum perspective which makes him hard to read. I am still suspicious and will have a reread later in the day when I have more time and am a little more awake | ||
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You both voted for AKCT before anyone else, that should be enough to ensure that you both did not jump on the wagon. You started it. Save your analysis for people who are possibly scum. This is just spamming the thread and making it difficult to spot other people's posts. | ||
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On January 07 2012 09:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ok then, you think Cats is scum. At the beginning I could have pressured Cats more, I agree. However it appeared he simply didn't understand the basics of Mafia. However shortly after, I started putting most of my attention on looking at Cephiro. I didn't just stop all pressure on him though however like you assumed. It was just a temporary relieve to let him relax and get comfy again before taking away that relaxed state really quickly. The next post saying that he looked "oh so scummy" was merely a way to get some pressure back on him. Also, its the first day. I'm not letting people go. I'm simply moving on to different people, it doesn't mean I can't and won't bring it back up. As you've noticed I'm currently pro lynching Cephiro. In fact I think he should be our #1 lynch target tomorrow. As for me going to the A K C T bandwagon your welcome to read my filter. Considering you made me read yours instead of just saying "I think hes scum" have fun reading mine again. And yes, right now I'm leaning Cats as town. I've also posted my reasoning for that. However I'm not "letting him off the hook". If he doesn't stay active then hes an obvious lynch target. However as of now hes posting and hes posting a lot. You say at the beginning that we shouldn't just wait and let him make more scum slips. Well, I don't think he should be our lynch target today, you think he should be sense you think hes scum? Sheth, can you read Ceph's filter again, focusing on his defense of my accusation and his subsequent posts. Does it change your opinion at all? If so why or why not? | ||
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On January 07 2012 09:09 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I haven't read his defense yet at all, I plan on making a big post on him after the night phase is over talking about the defense and such. Hopefully you don't mind waiting until morning. You seem pretty certain on surviving the night. You know something we don't? | ||
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We haven't heard anything from Hippo, Blurry, Cats (obviously), Cephiro, Xeris or Gretorp. Where are you guys? | ||
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Well, if nothing else it means you played one hell of a game. Taken out first night, you must have been doing something right. Going to have a read through your filter again to check your reads. Cheers bro | ||
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Hippo you still haven't posted anything of contribution, but I hope that your analysis is good. I would much rather a full blown case than three lines parroting someone. Cats, your poor bastard You're caught and you still copy other's arguments. You're looking for a way to contribute which is good, but is both a town and scum perogative, so it's a null tell really. If you want to save your skin, answer my question at the top of this post. Blurry you may have fallen off the face of the earth but if you don't show up soon I swear you will be falling with a rope around your neck. Christ out of 10 players we have four lurkers If they don't start posting, we're fucked. As for my contribution, I will post my top scum pick in the next 24 hrs or so which should give people plenty of time of analyse my case. I was sorely disappointed with the response my cases received last time, this time I want criticism. | ||
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On January 07 2012 16:51 Jitsu wrote: I think that's because you're were the first. I assume you play devil's advocate yourself, but post you're analysis. Are you leaning away from cephiro? I think Sheth is acting pretty scummy ATM, and I agree with the same concerns you have with Cats. @Sheth: If we have a DT, and he found someone, would you think it's a good idea or a bad idea to reveal? He has already said the DT should claim near LYLO with his reads which is a terrible idea. So I guess this fits under that. I don't care if my analysis is first, people should make up their own god damn minds. I can't stand it when people just sheep others. That's why you're town in my book, you started well and have been posting your own thoughts all game. The problem I have Cephiro is this, in response to my case he came out firing. He rightly pointed out issues with Sheth's play as well as mine (something no-one had done yet). He was forceful and aggressive and has remained so since. this biggest issue I had with his early play was the lack of focus, lack of drive and aggression to pin down people. He was contradictory and waffly which are all mafia characteristics. However since then he has been much better. If I was mafia with a case like that against me, I would have pushed for AKCT to be lynched rather than trying to defend myself extensively. There was plenty of reason for lynching him (my case being only one of a few) and it would have saved his bacon. The fact that he decided to go full guns all glory redeems him somewhat in my eyes. If nothing else he is being a useful townie now (well when he isn't travelling ). So yes my view has changed. Despite how fierce my cases appeared I am capable of changing my mind when someone changes their play. The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list. As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia. Full case coming soonish! | ||
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On January 07 2012 12:59 CatsnHats wrote: In regard to my martyr post, I'll admit that I felt pretty defeated when I was writing it, but then I realized that I could use your reactions as fodder for evidence and as a way of generating discussion, so I lurked and waited. I was pretty disappointed for the most part, a lot of "Don't give up for the town's sake" responses that came from the players with really town-y reads already (Prob, Gonzaw, Tunkeg), and this was meant to find scum, not confirm town. But then AnxiousHippo posted thank goodness, something I could make a read on. Thanks for the pep-talk, the thing is though, it's the exact same thing that Probulous wrote, just in less words. Bandwagon post to make yourself look town if you ask me. And why would you compliment my last paragraph? Because it points the finger at you. If I didn't include you, would that make it better than "decent"? Or are you just complimenting it because you think I would let you off the hook? And then this: Really? After everyone else has already agreed that he needs to respond and has been pressured, you jump on the bandwagon and offer this filler BS? You're going to have to do better than that. You also say that Xeris doesn't look scummy because we have nothing to go on, but his posts are more questionable than Gretorp, a player you are bandwagon pressuring. Are you just trying to protect Xeris, a scum friend? 9 (excluding me) people left. 3 are mafia. AnxiousHippo, Blurry, Gretorp, and Xeris have all drawn suspicion for either lurking, contradicting themselves, shady behavior, etc. Do I think the whole mafia is in these 4? NO. Do I think at least one, maybe of them is? Yes. In light of recent events, AnxiousHippo has done the most to damn himself in my eyes, but we're kinda stuck on Gretorp and Xeris until they answer or get modkilled. That leaves Blurry, I'll analyze his filter and post later. Who's ProfBA? I thought you all were mistyping Prob but you kept saying it so I'm confused. @Sheth This is the definition of OMGUS from the TL Newbie Thread Cookie linked: "OMGUS: Oh my God! You suck! Voting for someone just because they are voting for you" Is this better guys? I'm really trying here. Contrary to what you may believe when I say something is decent, I mean it is decent. I was complimenting you and the fact that for the first time in living memory you actually provided something. Geez man, way to take a compliment! I could care less if you are suspicious of me but this bit was hilarious. | ||
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Before I lynch you i would like to apologise if you don’t like me using the photo. I will remove it if you give yourself up easily. The Baby-Faced Killer First things first, I am sorry guys I failed you yesterday. I put together my cases and was part of the lynching of the innocent CookierMaker who was also proficient in the art of tea-making. I was wrong. Worse still I had a null read on Sheth. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... Not likely Here is Sheth's filter. I will be posting most quotes old school otherwise this will be too long. So here we go. My initial suspicion of Sheth was raised when he let Cats off the hook for a shitty reason linky. He is the first to identify a particular person for scummy play but immediately backs off? If you thought Cats was posted badly then puts the pressure on him to stop. By undermining his own stance with " I'm picking on you for no real reason" Sheth provides an escape for Cats. My belief it was in the hope that no-one really noticed and would drop the subject. This is my response to Cats and you can the difference in tone. I want him to actually change and I stand by my position. Unfortunately no-else noted this at this point in time. Luckily for town Sheth had promised a revelation in the morning. Well this is the revelation (Linky for context). Here is the meat of it On January 05 2012 03:58 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Ahhh yea. Gretorp getting busy. I like it. Were going to get some scum. Ok, well, I'm going to analyse some games for a bit, as I have to work. However before I go, I geuss I'll point out one thing. Fluff Everyone seems to be accusing everyone. It doesn't help, because we know its just one persons pressure and honestly we assume its fake pressure, because after all its day1 and we don't have any great reads. So, instead of this I recomend we get behind one person and see if they can tell us why they ARE NOT mafia. Here we have something that looks fine at first glance but upon rereading makes no sense. As town, you want people to participate, you want information, any information. Pressure is what produces responses and responses produce things to find scum with. If you aren't pressuring everyone who are you pressuring and how can you be sure they are mafia? Choosing one person to focus on means you give mafia (at this stage) and 10/12 chance of not-being lynched. Who chooses who is the person to face the pressure anyway? No this gives mafia too much space to hide and is a really scummy post. This is clearly mafia motivated. You assume we won't have any reads on day 1, implying we shouldn't bother. How can anyone prove they are not mafia on day 1? By being proactive and providing new information.Focusing on one person gives mafia an easy excuse to sheep. I was planning on leaning on Cephiro, for his post here : It comes down to a wall of text that tell us nothing. It just makes it look like hes contributing a lot when in fact he hasn't come up with a new opinion and his others posts are very non-committal. Just like wishy washy, things, and I thought it was just weird. Firstly note the use of the word "leaning". He states before his case that it is weak and only meant as faint pressure. This undermines his point before he even starts. Sheth points out an obviously bad post (one which i had been arguing with Ceph about all day 1). Ceph had already acknowledged the stats meant nothing so there isn't any point in regurgitating the argument now. But even if Sheth thought it was scummy, he doesn't say so. No it's weird. Casting doubt without actually calling him out. However this morning you posted Which has some negatives and actually contribues some, so I'll back off for now. Kinda ironic that you wanted me to post my read today and my read was on you. Apparently this means that Sheth doesn't need to "lean" on Cephiro anymore. That terrible analysis which has some negatives (we never hear what they are) is enough for Sheth to back off. Essentially you undermine your case which is a repeat of our discussions from day 1 and then dismiss it because he posted his analysis which you say has negatives but won't tell us what they are. Talk about wishy-washy. Again, this is casting suspicion without making it clear. A mafia would not want to call out someone who could defend themselves well. Much better to push a weak case and hope it catches fire. Given my DAy 1 read it is a tad ironic that Cephiro was the first to pick this up (linky) but he deserves credit for it. Tunk (bless his townie soul) picked up Sheth's terrible reasoning for focusing on a single player (linky). Jitsu pointed out that Sheth was hyping his possible analysis but then failed to deliver (linky). So far that is three people (based on my current reads) that are either green or looking greeny, that have noted Sheth's scummy play. At this stage the only people he has targeted have been Cats and Cephiro both of which he has let off the hook. He was not suspicious of Cephiro at this point He did not post anything after backing down on his "case" against Cephiro and yet as soon as he comes back to thread and has read my analysis this is his post in full On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. Note how he twists Cephiro's words here. He says he changed his opinion partly due to other people's good reasoning. Sheth turns that into following people blindly. There is nothing wrong with following good reasoning. You should, that is logical, much better than following bad reasoning. But Sheth makes it look like Ceph is just sheeping. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Here we have his subtle linkage on Cephiro's possible flip and my alignment. Note the word use " We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not". By Sheth's thinking if Ceph was town I had to be mafia. This would be really beneficial to Sheth because he knows Ceph is town, which means he can hopefully get me lynched when Ceph flips green. Hell no you can't. Unfortunately this distracted me and I have "words" with Sheth. Note how he immediately assumes I might die night one. Well I didn't, Tunk did. One of the few that called him out on his back-pedalling. But then the best bit, Cephiro goes from being Sheth's second read to nothing to highest scum read based on MY analysis. Note he has added nothing here except a weird twisting of Ceph's words to make a point that doesn't make sense. To me this reads like someone desperate to look like they had Ceph as their target all along. Sheth never says that his reasoning is based on my case, in fact he never mentions what his reasoning is. At this point Sheth and I wonder off into diversion land about whether Ceph's flip says anything about my alignment. There isn't much there except in this post Sheth makes a big boo-boo. Honestly all this talk is probably pointless as lynching mafia first round is pretty low. However I really like our reads on Cephiro and I'm pretty hopeful. Xeris / Gretorp whats your thoughts on this when your done doing stuff at work? Xeris is a REALLY pro-town read for me now. Andre I want you to be too, but your first post was bad. Give me your analysis and I hope I like it!!! Read that first sentence again. Way to pump the team Mr Sheth. At this point, we may be against the odds but not heavily so. Unless of course you are Mafia in which case you know we won't be lynching red. He follows this gem with Xeris being REALLY pro-town. Xeris had been seriously absent and then appeared with random comments about RNG and basically trashed all analysis done to date. He had (has) done nothing for this town and hasn't even hinted at being suspicious of someone. There is nothing pro-town about his play but Sheth is quick to defend him. OK, you're mates I get it, but why Xeris over Gretorp. At least Gretorp pointed out Cephiro waffling, that was a damn site more than xeris but no Xeris is REALLY pro-town. I don't like lynching lurkers but when Sheth flips red I bet Xeris will too. The next post of consequence from Sheth is this beauty. Where he claims allegiance to Xeris because he played real life games with him. quote]Well, the Xeris thing is based completely on the fact that I know him really well IRL and we've played mafia a bunch before. He is really bad mafia. Like he'd be lurking and mod killed if he was mafia. And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts. So just the fact that he is usually terrible as mafia and whenever hes used that excuse in the past hes always been town + hes playing just how I imagine a townie Xeris playing gives me a good read. Hes one of the only two I know IRL, so its easier for me to get a read on him then the rest of you.[/quote] This is Sheth's third game, he knows this is different. He even uses that as a reason for Xeris bad play when he says "And his posts about why he doesn't want to lynch someone this day are what I initially thought too when I went from IRL games to forum posts". But then he ends up saying he will have a good read because he has played with them offline? No the reason Sheth has a good read is because Sheth is scum. There is nothing in his reasoning that suggest Xeris should be given special treatment but in Sheth's mind he deserves it for being REALLY townie. After all this he decides to discuss outing the DT (if we have one) I thought by this stage we had made it clear that discussing blues only gives mafia an opportunity to work out if there is a power role. Worse Sheth suggests the DT claim! That is terrible as this would almost certainly draw a counterclaim from scum and put town in a WIFOM situation where both end up getting lynched/killed. It is a trade of a DT for a mafia, which he supports! No way, DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. It is 1 am and I need some sleep so I will this last bit quick. The vote and nightkill. Sheth suggested I change my vote to AKCT because Cephiro was not going to get lynched. I was the fourth person to place my vote down at 08:15 (my time) by 08:26 the required seven had been reached by Sheth hammering it home. Those three votes were Cephiro, Cats and Sheth. There was no resistance to this lynch once I had placed my vote which means that people were sheeping. I had a strong case on Cookie from the start, but Sheth he went back and forth on Cookie. Only when the deal was sealed did he push really hard. Finally the nightkill, here are Sheth's responses to AKCT questions 2) If you were a Doc (could save someone from a nightkill), who would you save and why? I would save one of Probulous, Myself, Gonzaw and Tunkeg. Note I am first and and Tunk is dead. Sheth knows I have been of value and would probably be a good medic save, hence he puts me first. But he puts Tunk last, he wanted the medic (again if we have one) to save me so Tunk could get shivved. I am done guys, I was wrong yesterday but I am not wrong today. Sheth it seems you rolled red again, time for you to swing. ##vote Liquid'Sheth | ||
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On January 07 2012 17:01 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob forgot about your question but it's 3 AM here so I'm going to bed. will answer when I get up and re-read filters. Cats, I like the fact that you are fighting, keep it up. But for christ's sake, give me your read on Sheth and Cephiro. The reason I asked for these so long ago was I didn't want my analysis to allow people to sheep. Cephiro has specifically asked for my thoughts which is why I posted my case when I did. Hell even Blurry managed to provide his two lines but you have dodged this question all weekend. So here it is again What are your reads on Sheth and Cephiro and why? | ||
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Nice work, I noticed your case earlier but unfortunately I can't comment on everything. What made me focus on Sheth was that both people who I thought were town (you and Tunk for example) and those I thought were mafia (Cephiro) were pulling him up on stuff. It made him hard to read, but once Ceph started firing cannon shells and my read changed it became clear that Sheth was playing scummy but I wasn't paying attention. So thanks guys, you really helped me notice his faulty logic. With the case as it is would you be willing to lynch Sheth? | ||
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On January 08 2012 05:46 gonzaw wrote: This is the biggest pile of WIFOM I've ever seen in my life. You still haven't responded to me, so as soon as you finish "re-reading their posts thoroughly", please post your findings AND respond to my post. I'll wait to see Sheth's response and how he reacts to make my read, although Prob's case makes sense. Null read on Sheth (until now at least), and Town read on Cephiro. Also people, what do we do regarding Xeris/Gretorp? Just wait? Gonz man, what the hell is this shit? You call others out for wishy-washy play but then post this contortion. You think my case makes sense but Sheth's response will tell you more? If the case is solid, nothing Sheth says should change your mind. He can always cast doubt on what I have written. I could forgive you for that, Ceph's defense for example shows what happens when a townie gets a case brought against him. But what is the null read (until now at least) Is he null or not? You either are waiting for more info (null case) or you think he is mafia (until now case). How can you have both positions in the same sentence? Would you be willing to lynch Sheth? | ||
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On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? | ||
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On January 07 2012 10:30 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm working on the bandwagon analysis Thanks for taking the time to do this. I eagerly await the results. It has been 24hrs now so you should have something to post. Whilst you are at it, please answer my questions about Sheth and Cephiro. In addition Would you be willing to lynch Sheth? I know I may look like I am spamming the thread, this is not intentional. I just want people to know that I am watching them and will be holding each individual accountable for how they answer that question. | ||
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##vote Liquid'Sheth | ||
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On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote: Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me. Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well. Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this: ##Unvote: CatsnHats I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it. So you think they are more likely scum than Sheth? I am not changing my vote here, are you with me or not? | ||
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On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote: @Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. Cats, you still aren't standing up for yourself. You are right to point out that everyone seems to have me pegged as town without thought. Why do you have to say I am not a day2 lynch target by any means and that this is not a FOS. Stop undermining yourself. Just ask the question and provide your own analysis. | ||
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On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Going to point out two of the main problems you have with my posting is my calling out Cats and then Cephiro. You say I ghost your read on him as well. You then talk about me not voting early on AKCT and following you again. I did remove the negative points you have on me in that quote, such as my defence of Xeris and defence of Cats and not completely training my thought on Cephiro early on. However I don't see whats caused you to change your mind so quick? I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro. @Probulous what has caused you so suddenly to think Ceph is town? I'm going to do a write up on what I've seen recently, so hopefully you answer is good. Here is is the entire post so you can see what I mean. On January 07 2012 06:00 Probulous wrote: Alright, my Sheth read. I am not going to post a massive text wall, it is 7:30am on a Saturday, give me a little break These things bothered me. He seems to really want to talk about blue roles, I don't see the value in this and the potential risk. If we have blues, discussing roles can lead to an outing which is bad for all. Despite my constant requests for this to stop, he has kept on about them. Most of his posts are fluff (admittedly discussions with me took up quite a few). He blatant support of Xeris with this as his reasoning That last line is particularly bad. It is clear that online and offline mafia are totally different, Sheth knows this from playing two games yet he is pretty certain that Xeris is town based on his offline play? The only reason you are certain of someone's alignment is when they flip or if you are scum. His case on Cookie amounted to Which was enough to put his scum list as Cephiro pointed out his dropping of the Ceph case until I posted mine. Points in his favour He is active and was the first to call out both Cats and Cephiro. He is happy to respond and get engaged in large discussions. He voted early for AKCT who was already on his list of scum reads. So in short my read is still null I can justify what he says from both a townie and scum perspective which makes him hard to read. I am still suspicious and will have a reread later in the day when I have more time and am a little more awake I even said in that post that I still found you suspicious and would take a closer look when I was more awake. Well I did and found scum. That is in my case against you. For one he responded to my case in the best way possible. Sure some of it was OMGUS but he legitimately pointed some of the weaknesses of the case. But more importantly he really went after you. No-one else at that point had really been targeting you. Tunk and Jitsu had asked some awkward questions but only Cephiro went balls to the wall. Since then he has been aggressive with his analysis and focused as well. That is my reason for changing. If you read my filter you can see it pretty clearly. Finally your full write up on Cephiro was this if I recall correctly. On January 05 2012 12:18 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, thats same for me Andre. Ok, heres what I've got. I didn't actually take the time to read through Cephiro's List completely. I simply saw that a few things on it were pointing out scum and he was worried about me in perticular. Those were things I wanted to see and saw them. However after re-reading them I realize that they don't pressure anyone. Hes being so completely passive and neutral. This is a trick that scum use generally. They don't want to commit to anything because they think that as long as there not stand outish in one way or another they won't get lynched. They live for that center world where they don't contribute much, but seem to. Even fairly recently : Its just so bad. He is just following "people providing good reasoning". This may seem like something we should all be doing, and it is. However on night one, if you are going to follow it, you follow it through. Because of this and because my first worry was about Cephiro I'm definetly liking Probulous. I say we lynch Cephiro. The benefits for this are great. We can completely tell about Probulous being town or not (which actually isn't too great, as that means he will probably die, Medic shoould definetly include him in WIFOM if there is a medic though!). And hopefully me as well, as I think hes a good lynch. However if hes town we'll also have a good read on a few other people who are sticking out to him. Perhaps lynching Cephiro will just be who the mafia buss. However I think that its a percentage game. And right now, Cephiro is definetly my highest scum read, ##Vote: Cephiro @CatsNHats -You seem oh so scummy. Whats your take on lynching Cephiro? Would you be willing to join in on this little train we're starting? Anyone else willing to hop on board, don't forget to pack a vote. Which was straight after my case and this On January 06 2012 07:02 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Yea, I went to bed with some good ideas and wanted to think about it before posting. When I woke up and saw the new post I wanted more time to look at it and I wasn't sure my original point was too valid because of his new post. Around this time Probulous made his full post before I could fully look at Cephiro's post. And after reading Prob's post it rang true with what I was thinking earlier and it invalidated a lot of my "well maybe he is just town and not scum after all" points. (The fact that he was being agressive back towards me, and towards others was what made me cautious These were some of the things that made me think he was scum : "Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them." This post seemed off. Why would it be important that if a roleblocker from mafia isn't that good if we have no town roles. It just seems like something no town would think of. And the way its said just seems like hes trying really hard to insinuate that its "them" and "the mafia". Then : Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. This also rang bells. Town should never be "provocative", we should pressure. We don't want to create chaos we just want to use logic and pressure people. I geuss thats similar to provocative, but I think there's a difference. And saying that we aim to lynch someone "hopefully scum" just seems so bad. Obviously we want to lynch scum, why would you even say that? Its helpful either way, but clearly we want to lynch scum.. He then changes his opinion on no-lynch seemingly for no reason and says "I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage." Why would he say hes "not entirely convinced on a no-lynch. Just so many things that I think a mafia would make. Little things, but when added up they say a lot to me. Then he says "Or random accusations to get people to talk." You don't do random accusations, you find reasons and you accuse intelligently. Only mafia want things to be random as far as accusations go because they have a higher percent to not get hit. All of these posts had me really worried when they were added together. I guess I should have brought all of this up earlier, but I thought Prob's post was good enough to get us lynching him. And these are my points after going back and re-thinking about it. So jitsu, theres why I think hes scum. I am a townie, hopefully you'll see from my arguments. As to what I'd say to Cephiro if he says I'm null-scum, "Thats exactly what I'd expect scum to say" First paragraph doesn't say anything other than my case was good. You were really stretching with the roleblocker thing. You seem to enjoy discussing blue roles, particularly townie ones. Cephiro writes a line about how mafia could have roleblocker with no power roles and that makes him mafia? Why would know town think of that? If nothing else this points the stupidity of discussing possible setups with no information. I stand by my original statement that discussing power roles adds nothing and is detrimental for exactly this reason. It gives scum the opportunity to cast doubt on pointless analysis. Speaking of stretching, your point about him not being "entirely convinced" was acrobatic. He says we would prefer a lynch over a no-lynch in that same paragraph. Cephiro did himself no favours by being placatory on day 1 but this is hardly damning. Especially since you don't paint a picture of how this scum motivated. You acknowledge it is a stretch (little things) but apparently they say a lot to you. Thanks for trying to convince the rest of us. If you have scum in your sights, you push hard to get them lynched. Why would you give up? Especially since there are other strong cases against him. Finally, I happen to agree with Cephiro that being provocative is certainly a townie trait. Responses are what sink mafia. Random accusations are all you have that early in the game. See the first Newbie Mafia for how they can out mafia. You say it gives mafia a higher percentage of not being hit, well that makes no sense. If mafia don't have to respond to anything they can easily move a vote to scummy townie. Much easier than if they have been asked questions, and have to take a stand. In essence your case against Cephiro was based on mine and some serious reaching, which you even acknowledge. But that is enough to vote for him? You didn't mind lynching Cephiro because you know he is town. From my reading it seems you hoped my case would be strong enough to convince people and when Tunk didn't want to budge you moved the vote to AKCT. You knew I was suspicious of him due to my case so of course I would vote for him and that my case (and others) could be used to convince others. I made a mistake there, which I regret. I should have known a miss-lynch was coming with the way that train got going. Unfortunately my major scum-read at the time was busy proving his townieness. That left Cookie and Cats, and I was more certain of Cookie than of Cats. This time I won't be swayed, you will be lynched and if not I will hold the others accountable for their decisions to let you live. | ||
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On January 08 2012 13:04 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Before I go, heres another post. I posted basically this same thing earlier, letting him out of saying something undermining himself and you got on my case over it. You're doing the same thing right now!!! How you can't see the hypocricy is beyond me. It is not hypocrisy, I want him to take a stand so we can evaluate his decisions. I didn't tell him I had no reason for saying what I am doing. You did. He clearly thinks he should look into my play, which is something I have been telling people to do. I am not letting him out anything, I am forcing him to make himself heard. He wanted to know how to get some credibility, well here it is. Take a stand, I didn't say that I don't think he is scummy, or anything which undermines my earlier read. I am getting him to make it clear where he stands so others can see what I see. There is nothing hypocritical about my post, I am telling him the same thing I have said since the start. If you want to prove you're town, take a stand, provide evidence and push it hard. You did not do that, you told him grow a spine and then in the very next post said you had no reason to target him. That is undermining your position. That is letting someone go. | ||
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On January 08 2012 13:44 CatsnHats wrote: I don't feel comfortable voting for you Sheth. I think Xeris, Gretorp, AnxiousHippo, and Blurry all have had as much scummy behavior as you, just less activity. I think you are getting targeted because you have a higher quantity of posts, making it easier for you to be quoted/analyzed. My target right now would be Blurry or AnxiousHippo, mainly because they are the most likely to respond at this point. Blurry has made 11 posts overall (an amount big enough to be remembered, but not enough to be picked apart like you), 1post yesterday, which is WIFOM filler and one post today, which was WIFOM filler. His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts? Cats, think of it his way. Is Sheth scum? Forget about the lurkers, they will get replaced or mod-killed and we and deal with them later. This question doesn't involve them. You either think Sheth is scum or you don't, I have presented my case do you agree with it? I am pushing for Sheth's lynch and will continue to do so because of what he has written implicates him as scum. We have a much better chance of lynching scum that have posted because we can make reads. Lynching a lurker becomes taking a shot in the dark which mafia can easily sway to a lurking townie. If you don't believe all mafia are lurking then it makes sense to find the one that isn't. That one is Sheth. Can I get a simple yes or no as to whether you will be voting for Sheth or not? Thanks. | ||
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He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem. If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more. Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming). Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats? Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum? So far we have the following votes: Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro) Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth) We are waiting the following to vote Cats AnxiousHippo Xeris Gretorp Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth | ||
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Updated vote count Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the band-wagoner, Cephiro) Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth) Blurry (1) (Cats) @Jitsu, I am not switching to Cats and it seems neither is Cephiro. You said you have Sheth pegged as scum but Cats more so, well if that is true then please change your vote to Sheth. We must lynch today, and we must lynch Sheth. | ||
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Gretorp's last post was On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:+ Show Spoiler + And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot and Xeris was On January 05 2012 18:58 Xeris wrote:+ Show Spoiler + I've been quiet because I work around 15-16 hours per day, and realistically, I'll only get to check this thread probably: once in the morning, once or twice at work, and in the night (nowish). I talked about the badness of random lynching because the first few pages of posts kept mentioning random lynching. This thread balloons crazily and I don't have the time to read in detail every post. So when I see 15-20 posts about random number generators and lynching people, I want to explain why I think that's bad. Anyway, it seems like the suspicion points at Cephira and CM (who just got replaced?). Brb reading some of the posts more carefully Meh. I'm not convinced of anything. I'll follow along with a lynch if people are convinced and just going to go for it- but I stand by my belief of not killing on the first day. Seriously, thinking people are scummy because of stupid analysis skills and bad/inconsistent posts is really silly. Although perhaps I have no clue about online mafia, anyway that's basically it from me. Will check in the morning, glgl Both more than 24 hours ago and after a warning for no vote. It is unfair on us to try and play with 20% of the players missing. Thanks heaps! | ||
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On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote: 7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null Just wanted to point out that Cephiro is by no means a confirmed townie. His play on Day 1 was terrible and deserved the case presented, however his play since has been incisive and focused. He was the first the really go after Sheth, which would be one hell of a bus if both were mafia. I know its WIFOM but I highly doubt both are mafia, it just doesn't fit the arguments presented. So it comes down to deciding between them. Sheth's play has been consistent throughout this game whilst Cephiro's improved dramatically after my case. Thus I think Cephiro is more likely to be town than mafia. This does not mean that he is confirmed town, I wasn't even implying that. I simply said he looks more townie after his response to my case. The only confirmed town I have right now is Jistu, simply because of his play. Gonz I am almost certain of and Cephiro is looking good. The rest of you, pick up your game. Voting for Sheth would be one way to do just that. | ||
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You don't care about being in the spotlight if you are town. Look at my case, I pushed Ceph's case so hard that I look like an idiot for changing my position, but I don't care because he was my best read. Mafia however love to cast suspicion around particularly if it can lead to a miss-lynch of someone who has been posting a lot. But of course they don't want to create the case and take the responsibility for the miss-lynch, much better to follow on from someone else's analysis. The motivation behind how the cases are presented clearly shows the difference between mafia and town. Sheth knows Ceph is town, so he has to choose between Ceph and other townies, so he soft pressures him on some obvious fluff. Then when my case comes up, he jumps on the wagon like it is nobody's business. If he was town he would have done that before my case was presented. Even afterwards he didn't attempt to convince others to vote for Ceph. he has to be asked to present his case. As town you want to prove your target is scum. When it appeared that AKCT was more likely to be lynched he switched courses. He knew I would vote for AKCT because I had presented my case already and he knew AKCT was town, so why not? He gets to lynch a townie either way. I admit I should have pushed harder at that point. i should have questioned Sheth about his motivations, I let him go. Ceph response had me all confused and it let Sheth determine the first lynch, well not today. Today Sheth hangs. | ||
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On January 09 2012 08:19 Liquid`Sheth wrote: This post is so bad again. I get your worried about me being "dangerous" and all. But I don't see how I am. Its all based on analysis and now your not even going to use your logic, your just calling me dangerous and trying to get people scared of me. You even in this post call Cats "So scummy now". If you think hes so scummy you just want me dead because I'm dangerous to you and not following along with you. If it comes down to it at the end, would you move your vote to Cats to stop a no-lynch Prob ? Are you seriously suggesting that you are not more dangerous than Cats? Cats has zero town cred, you had plenty and the fact that Jitsu still hasn't moved his vote suggest the same. You have pushed arguments and swayed town. It was you who convinced me to change my vote after which remarkably, AKCT was lynched within half an hour. I am taking responsibility for my vote, I have explained it. In this particular instance I look as guilty as you, but I had my reasons. Like I said Ceph's respons confused the hell out of me, but you, your only reason for not lynching Ceph was to avoid a no-lynch. You still thought (and do) think he is scum but you didn't even try and convince others. You didn't even try and avoid AKCT lynch, why? Why, if Cephiro is your number one scum read do you just give up when two people vote in another direction? I had a reason to change, I started to think Cephiro was not mafia. You still had him as your number one mafia pick and yet you suggested we switch. Given how many votes rolled in after mine, it would have been possible to lynch Ceph. But no, it was easier to lynch AKCT and then go into day 2 hoping Ceph was still looking scummy. That way you could convince us to lynch him Day 2. This had the added benefit that you didn't have to post your "nail him to the wall" read until much later. Sorry Sheth but you had no real reason to give up your case on Ceph so easily. That was damning in my eyes. When you're away for a while PLEASE READ THE THREAD. WTH!? JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA. You do realise the only way that Ceph could be bussing you is if your both mafia? | ||
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Fuck me I hate it when people do that, and I just did | ||
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On January 09 2012 08:39 Liquid`Sheth wrote: When Sheth flips town hes going to look really really good. - - If I cared about being in the spotlight I woudln't have even started this thing against Ceph and don't pretend you were the FIRST to notice him. But I was the first to post a full case and vote for him. Don't try and pretend that I wasn't the first to actively push for his lynch. I was the one who did that, not you. You "leaned" on him remember? You also switched votes before me on to AKCT if I recall correctly. Quit just blatantly lieing about that too. Where did I say that you voted for him first? I didn't. You suggested it. Here is your suggestion On January 06 2012 08:07 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I'm here. however I have to leave soon. Probulous sense were the only two active are you willing to go on to AKCT? I'd rather get a lynch then none and we seem to be the only two willing to switch. On January 06 2012 08:13 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Probulous please read my question, as I have to leave really quickly and want your take on this. Unless you tell me otherwise I'm going to move my vote over to AKCT when I leave because a lynch is better then no-lynch. and here is my vote On January 06 2012 08:15 Probulous wrote: I prefer Cephiro but if you are leaving than I guess so. ##vote A Killer Cuppa Tea I suggested a No-lynch was worse then a lynch and you agreed. This was solid reasoning, quit taking good reasoning and saying it wasn't and it makes me scum. I had a reason to switch from Cephiro, I still felt he was mafia but his posts had thrown me. I needed more time to evaluate his defense because it rang true to me. I had both pegged as scum and so when evidence arose that Cephiro might not be scum, I switched. You still believed Cephiro was more likely to be scum than Cats but you suggest we switch to avoid a no-lynch? We still had time and votes available. I admit I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you haven't. Why would you give up your case against Cephiro so easily? And trust me, I'm trying my best to Prove that Ceph is scum. Now, when he looks more like town and you look like mafia You earlier posted how you didn't notice when everyone just jumped onto A Killer Cuppa Tea that you should have stopped the train on him and known he wasn't scum. How do you not notice it happening to me now? Suspiciously Hippo or some one like Cats/Jitsu will change there vote on me at the end and voila everyone just kills off the townie and no one is at fault. The difference is that Day 1 AKCT was NOT my number 1 scum read, he was number 2. Don't worry, when you die I will go look through people's reasoning for their vote. But right now I have to get you lynched, because I believe you are scum and that you have potential to weasel your way out of getting lynched. Cats does not. | ||
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On January 09 2012 09:11 Liquid`Sheth wrote: You say " I had a reason to switch from Cephiro, I still felt he was mafia but his posts had thrown me. I needed more time to evaluate his defense because it rang true to me. I had both pegged as scum and so when evidence arose that Cephiro might not be scum, I switched. You still believed Cephiro was more likely to be scum than Cats but you suggest we switch to avoid a no-lynch? We still had time and votes available. I admit I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you haven't. Why would you give up your case against Cephiro so easily? " Several people had already said that they were going to be gone for the rest of the day and coudln't change there vote. At the time if you remember there were maybe 3-4 people even online at the time. I never "gave up my case" but I did cause the lynch of CM because I was sure it was either that or No-lynch. Which was the RIGHT decision." There were five people who voted (including me, excluding Ceph) after you suggested the switch. The fact that you just accepted you could not convince either Blurry, AKCT or Gonz to switch to Cephiro to prevent a no-lynch is damning. You didn't even try! This reasoning is abusrd, your contradicting yourself as well. you say "I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you havn't." when I have in fact. Bah! Your reasoning is that you wanted to prevent a no-lynch. Well as above five people (including me) switched after you suggested it. That means you actually needed two other people to vote and you could have got Cephiro lynched. Of course we don't know if this was possible or whether those that voted for AKCT would vote for Ceph because you gave up so easily. I did too but that because I thought Cephiro might be town, you gave to prevent a no-lynch. But I was the first to post a full case and vote for him. Don't try and pretend that I wasn't the first to actively push for his lynch. I was the one who did that, not you. You "leaned" on him remember? I said "Notice" I didn't even say Lean or actively push for a lynch. If I get lynched here because of this faulty logic I'm just gonna sit and laugh at this for a while. This is so messed up. The implication is the same. Until I posted my case Cephiro was not on the chopping block. You tried to make it look like you were the one going after him. | ||
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If town gets fucked over because of lurkers I will be pissed. On January 09 2012 07:44 GreYMisT wrote: Vote count: Liquid`Sheth (4) : Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry, Cephiro CatsnHats (2): Jitsu, Liquid`Sheth Blurry (1): CatsnHats With 10 Alive it takes 6 to lynch. the day ends in ~2 hours and 20 minutes. I assume Jitsu has left the thread? If not you better switch to Sheth cause we are not lynching Cats today. That means that if it stays this way we end up with a no-lynch because of lurkers If they don't vote I will be requesting a mafia ban because this shit is ridiculous. | ||
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That gives us five, fucking Hippo better fucking vote!!! | ||
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It is pretty ridiculous that we have almost every single vote that has been validly cast on Sheth (except for Cats vote for Blurry) and we still only just reach majority. This is how lurkers kill a game. | ||
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I like that | ||
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Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing! | ||
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We have recently removed one of the mafia besmirching this town. In order to help remove the rest, it would be great if you could read the thread carefully and make a real effort to be active. Lurkers almost screwed us over yesterday, we don't want that happening again. | ||
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On January 09 2012 10:46 CatsnHats wrote: Holy shit mass town replacement. @Town: You don't think Sheth would've let Xeris and Gretorp be inactive if they were mafia, do you? He didn't. He explicitly said he tried to contact them. Anyway he could have done that if he was town so that says nothing. However his insistence that Xeris was town despite Xeris addint nothing to the thread adds to my suspicion of Xeris. My last two mafia reads right now Xeris and Cats. I will be looking into the remaining filters and again re-evaluating my reads. | ||
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What the hell did I write | ||
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How do we tell who is scum amongst the lurkers? We had Xeris (kronhjort), Gretorp (Paperscraps), Blurry and Hippo (Bkrow) all posting nothing that really identifies themselves as town. I am happy to aim for a lynch in one of these four. I highly doubt all remaining mafia were in there but at least one is. Xeris (kronhjort) Besides the case presented by Gonz against Xeris, Sheth's insistance that he is town is pretty damning. I still don't believe that Sheth had any real reason to believe Xeris was more town than Gretorp. He has played mafia with both of them but was certain that Xeris was REALLY town. Gretorp (Paperscraps) There is nothing to analyse here. Besides saying he will provide analysis and then didn't, we have nothing on him. By signing up to this game he was promising to post which he didn't so he wasn't really good at keeping promises. Doesn't mean he is mafia, or town. Hence nothing. Blurry Oh sheepy sheepy sheep. You would be in my sights if not for this post On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:+ Show Spoiler + About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates 7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum. 8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum. 9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town. 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. 11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him. 12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral. Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. This was pretty early in the thread and his town reads are Cephiro, Tunkeg, Jitsu, Gonzaw and myself. That is five people who are pretty much confirmed town in my eyes. He also notes Sheth's bad post and stands by his postition about announcing whether you have been role blocked. All of this is good. The problem is that since then he has gone off the rails. He doesn't post and when he does he sheeps people. He is my least likely candidate but I will be watching him like a hawk and will reread his filter again before night ends. Hippo (Bkrow) I originally had hippo pegged as a newbie. He asked obvious questions (roleblocking), explained my bad pun to Cephiro and specifically told the thread to move on from the no-lynch discussions. Unfortunately he had a terrible reason for voting for AKCT and then disapeared from the thread. Bk seems to have started well but unfortunately has to work hard to remove the suspicion from Hippo. In summary out of those I think Xeris (kronhjort) is the most likely scum but I cannot be sure. What do the rest of you think? | ||
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I seriously doubt we will all be alive in the morning. So please post any analysis or ideas you may have before night ends. I will have another re-read (I should be able to quote this thing by now) and post my updated reads just before the day post. @Bk, good start now find us some scum | ||
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It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and "I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry? | ||
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I am iffy about Cats right now because he at least is actively participating and geniunely looks like he wants to contribute. Yes, his contributions have been terrible but I am having trouble deciding whether he is really bad mafia or really bad town. The biggest mark against him aside from his washy play and Sheth's support of him is his attempts to defend Sheth. He was the last to vote for Sheth and only when Sheth told him to, so there is plenty of evidence pointing to him being scum. The problem is I could easily see Sheth picking on a guy who clearly has no clear plan on how to play and making him appear wishy washy. We call him out and he tries to take a stand against us to show he is town His quality of posting has picked up which leaves me in a really akward spot. So in short I could be persuaded to vote for him but I am more interested in the lurkers. If we kill Cats we still and he flips scum we still have to find the last one. So that is my mission. Gretorp/paperscaps have nothing to read, whilst Xeris/Paperscraps look pretty scummy from Xeris' play and Sheth's adamant defence of him. Hippo/Bkrow however is still pretty null to me. He started as a newbie town but as the game went on became more and more scummy, I like that Bkrow has been posting but his posts have had a few inconsistencies in them. So by process of elimination what are your thoughts on Hippo/Bkrow? | ||
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On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote: Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post. As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting. Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is). If by some miracle I am still alive today I will be looking into the lurkers. Cats is scummy as hell and I have no problem lynching him unless a better target appears. | ||
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On January 09 2012 05:03 Liquid`Sheth wrote: 1. AnxiousHippo : Starts off stating he is a new player (2nd game) and doens't know what to do early on. Starts off with pressuring CookieMaker + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? Not confident enough on his read on cookiemaker and puts a placeholder vote on Xeris. Then instead of reverting back to his own case on CM, he states he hasn't had enough time to read others cases on CM (A K C T) and votes on him to avoid a no-lynch. He then posts a nice argument against Cephiro : + Show Spoiler + On January 06 2012 16:31 AnxiousHippo wrote: When? Don't think we've forgotten. Xeris doesn't quite look scummy because we have nothing to analyse him on but he does look pretty dodgy, especially with Sheth's post in mind. He's already been warned, in a not-newbie game it'd be a modkill. At the moment Cephiro looks more like mafia than CatsnHats, partly because I don't know what to make of Cats' "I give up post". He was also trying to play it safe till the pressure came on. He says he sees Jitsu and CM as slightly town and he's neutral on Tunkeg. He also falls back on "being excited" twice He also says he doesn't think Sheth is mafia but asks everyone else to watch him closely, implying he wants other people to call him out first so he doesn't have to worry about it. His vote for Tea was also just a placeholder even though he said none of his top 3 scumreads is Tea. @Jitsu if you look back at where he said Tea you'd see that I talked right before and after. @CatsNHats get your head back in the game if you're town you should be more focused on killing mafia than convincing everyone you're a dead weight. Just keep trying, your last paragraph was decent, try expanding on that. Then says hes working on "bandwagon analysis" which he has yet to post. Null read. The argument against Cephiro was weak at best but at least he was contributing. Sheth never updated his case on Hippo even when we started questioning him. That could be because Sheth himself was under pressure though. All in all Sheth's filter on Hippo gives me nothing Hippo never gave us a read on Sheth so that also is a dead-end. Sorry guys. | ||
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Here you rightly point out that the case against Blurry is worse than the case against Gretorp. On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote: To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah.. I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread What does the "well yeah" mean? Are you implying he is scum or just pointing out that he didn't post it? From this you seems suspicious of Gretorp but are waiting on more information, is that correct? Then you write about Xeris On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote: I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched. If you had read the thread at all you would that this town is particularly hard on being people being wishy-washy. What the hell was this? You are clearly suspicious of Gretorp for lurking and it seems more suspicious of Xeris for both lurking and Sheth's comments. Is that correct? If so why undermine the only case you have presented by suggesting that Sheth was trying to undermine Xeris' credibility? If we apply Occam's razor, it is more likely they are both mafia than Sheth had deliberately buddied up to an inactive townie in the hope that people would interpret his buddying up as scumbuddying. I don't get why you would post that. It just makes your whole post mean nothing, makes you look like you're contributing but gives you an easy out. Explain. | ||
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Cats, that is clearly WIFOM stuff and doesn't help your case. You did exactly the same thing when you said Cookie voting for you mean you weren't mafia. Turns out he was town so do you stand by that statement? Can't you see how this stuff tells us nothing. | ||
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Will I live or will I die? If I'm here, Bk, I am watching you. Paper and Kron you guys really need to contribute something, Blurry too. Here's to hoping! | ||
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If I die, I won't feel too bad. At least we got Sheth lynched. The others really need to pick up their game. Gonz has not posted much since last week and the new guys have posted nothing. The three of us can't carry them forever. If we lose because we get killed and the others couldn't be bothered to participate, I will be pissed at them, not myself. | ||
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On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote: Hey all, just got home from school. Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Or he is simply sheeping. I don't see why if he was buddies with Sheth he would jump on the Sheth wagon so quickly when Cats was being pushed so hard. Essentially this comes down to WIFOM and the fact that he questioned Sheth early and voted for him early leads to place more credit in him than the others. Can you explain what you think that something is? Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. Well you are posting which is a great improvment over Gretorp. The problem I have with your case here is that you are being inconsistent. You say Blurry is scummy because he "might" have been bussing Sheth but Xeris is not even though Sheth was buddying up to him? Which is more likely, Sheth was trying to protect his scum buddy or Blurry was bussing his scum buddy for town cred? To me it makes more sense for Sheth to try and protect Xeris as long as possible, and it makes no sense for Blurry to jump on Sheth's wagon before it even got started. Why do you give Xeris more credit than Blurry? CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob That could be anyone of the lurkers too. You either forgive everyone for being newb or hold people to equal standards. Why does Cats get special treatment? Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia. If mafia is not stupid (clearly they aren't) they kill either myself, Cephiro or Jitsu. That is obvious, what info does that give us? | ||
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I will be looking into your reads real careful. You were an asset to town and if we win you will have to do with that. Chat after the game! | ||
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On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote: Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post. As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting. Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is). On January 10 2012 09:57 Jitsu wrote: I was actually a little bit curious about Gonz's posts. Check his filter. I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote: At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp. Maybe. That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking. A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote: Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads? Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote: Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts). Re: Roleblock I am going to assume that no-one has been roleblocked for the past two nights. Why? Well we are in one of the following situations
WIFOM, I know but I think it is much more likely that scum would use everything in their power to deny us information. Given we have two nights with no roleblock and we have lynched a scum I think there is no roleblocker in this setup. That gives one of three situations
I just wanted to be sure that my assumptions were correct, hence the question regarding roleblock. THERE IS NO REASON FOR A BLUE, IF WE HAVE ONE, TO CLAIM. DO NOT CLAIM For those unaware, I believe you are told whether you have been roleblocked regardless of whether you have a role or not. | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:30 Cephiro wrote: Do you think it could be possible that BOTH statements would be true? As in the last two scum would be Cats & Gonzaw? I haven't read through Gonzaw's filter yet, but I will check it and post my opinion in the morning. (3:30 AM, gonna sleep now.) I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios. | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:19 Paperscraps wrote: Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy. Yes, Blurry votes when I ask him to, with no hesitation at all. He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump. In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker. Prob: What is your read on Cats right now? Who are you thinking are scummy? See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave. | ||
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On January 10 2012 11:36 gonzaw wrote: FUUUUUUUUUU... Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread. I'll respond as I see fit though. Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? ...WTF is this WIFOM shit? Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis. And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez... + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get? Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them. I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again. + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote: I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up. For fucks sake. I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do? I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!! I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Wtf is this? So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts? You say you are going by "your gut"? Wtf? Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter. I'll check the Cat situation too. Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist. Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town. Calm down matey. The only reason people were getting suspicious is because of Jitsu's post. I stand by my read on you based on a few things. The most obvious being you are aggressive and have called people on their shit. Contrary to what others might think, your argument with Tunk makes you look more town than mafia. I see no reason for mafia to call attention to their hit right before the day post. It is just stupidly and unnecessarily putting themselves in the spotlight. As for my WIFOM, I think it is pretty clear that there is no roleblocker, that is all I wanted to gain from it. No need to get all antsy about it. The WIFOM about you was to get people's thoughts on what is more likely. Clearly Cats is far more scummy than you, that is what I was trying to point out. I stand by my Blurry read. You have to make up your mind on limited information, Blurry looks a lot less scummy than Cats. He hasn't said or done much but what he has looks like a newbie town in my eyes. You don't agree, why? You can justify what he has done from both a mafia or town POV, but one is more likely than the other given the reads you have on other people and how they flipped. I don't see how Blurry bussing Sheth so early is more likely than him just being a sheeping town. Finally, anyone with half a brain knew you were away. You had a legitimate reason to put a placeholder vote down, and you placed it on a scum. You had been pushing Cats all game long, as mafia it would have been easier for you to just vote Cats as a placeholder and try to split the vote. In the same manner as Blurry, I think your early vote stands in your favour. | ||
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On January 10 2012 08:14 Probulous wrote: BK, thanks for being somewhat active. Can you explain this inconsistency for me. Here you rightly point out that the case against Blurry is worse than the case against Gretorp. What does the "well yeah" mean? Are you implying he is scum or just pointing out that he didn't post it? From this you seems suspicious of Gretorp but are waiting on more information, is that correct? Then you write about Xeris If you had read the thread at all you would that this town is particularly hard on being people being wishy-washy. What the hell was this? You are clearly suspicious of Gretorp for lurking and it seems more suspicious of Xeris for both lurking and Sheth's comments. Is that correct? If so why undermine the only case you have presented by suggesting that Sheth was trying to undermine Xeris' credibility? If we apply Occam's razor, it is more likely they are both mafia than Sheth had deliberately buddied up to an inactive townie in the hope that people would interpret his buddying up as scumbuddying. I don't get why you would post that. It just makes your whole post mean nothing, makes you look like you're contributing but gives you an easy out. Explain. @BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks! | ||
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Your play has gotten better over time but unfortunately too late. No hard feelings I hope. | ||
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Your gambit was terrible and created all sorts of mayhem, I hate it when people use passive aggressive stuff to gain emotional leverage. So yeah, no problem seeing you lynched. It is not meant as a personal thing, play better next time. I would happy to have another game with you. Anyway, are we the only one's reading the thread? | ||
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The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me. In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me. I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight. Show me what you got! | ||
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Much better This in particular stood out to me "Jitsu's death has saved the town I think". There is no way that town is better off with Jitsu dead. Ironically his initial position that you were town gave him more credibility in my eyes which is why I asked him to explain it, he then changes his mind and with the flimsiest of reasoning. Who do you think is the other mafia? | ||
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"Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else" At first I thought that was wrong, Gretorp was one of the first to call out Cephiro for his waffle cases, I had not posted my case at this point. This was a point in his favour. The only other person who had said anything was Sheth with his "leaning" on Cephiro. However he is intentionally ambiguous and like Sheth never comes back to it. Given Sheth's flip it is possible that they planned to try some soft-pressure on Cephiro to see how we responded. Gretorp never wrote a follow up so we can't be sure. My only issue is that Xeris/kronhjort looks worse than Gretorp/Paperscraps which means if they are both scum then the mafia team was all the pros It is a stupid mental block given the whole setup was randomised so I will take a closer look at Xeris/kronhjort. | ||
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On January 11 2012 07:13 bkrow wrote: Can i be honest? I don't see this huge fascination with "sheeping". It is not immediately anti town to follow the majority, especially if it secures a lynch. There is a difference between sheeping and joining the bandwagon; following a clear analysis made by another person without adding much yourself doesn't mean you are scum simply because there isn't much more to add? The thing that got me most sold on Cats was jitsu to be honest; he seemed so sure of it, and his play before his death was very pro town. You are probably going to call this sheeping but it seems everyone in this thread has to have an original idea about something otherwise they are sheeping. No not really, they just have to participate. The problem is that if people don't post their own thoughts and just follow others we lose information. I hate the fact that no-one has really taken me apart for my analysis. Some of it is not great and I am sure there are holes in it. The only people who raised questions were the ones I targeted in my cases. If people blindly follow others it is impossible to tell who is mafia bandwagonning and who is town sheeping. BK, I like the fact that you are participating and don't seem concerned about people's opinion of you. Seems townie to me. With this in mind please respond to this. On January 10 2012 13:07 Probulous wrote: @BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks! In particular I would like your thoughts on Xeris/kronhjort especially in light of Sheth's flip and comments about Xeris. | ||
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On January 11 2012 07:27 Blurry wrote: There is no way that both Gretorp and Xeris were scum because they were totally inactive and it is doubtful that they would have submitted their night actions. My guess with no evidence to back my claims is that its one of those two plus one of the players that has been more active. Fair point. So which one? Given that Cats is actively participating and providing analysis I am happy to leave him today. Even if we assume he is mafia (I'm not sure) there is someone else and I agree that it he is either Gretorp/Paperscraps or Xeris/kronhjort. | ||
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I believe Occam's Razor is something like "the solution with the smallest number of assumptions is usually correct", or simply put, the simplest solutions is normally the correct one. | ||
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I'm going to go through this carefully and provide some "devil's advocate" analysis. On January 11 2012 07:43 gonzaw wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. . + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. These were the only 2 times you ever mentioned Sheth. You even thought he was more likely town than scum the first time, that's a blatant contradiction of "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start". So can you tell me wtf this is? You should be lynched just by this alone, it's a blatant lie. It isn't actually, in his first post he says " Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell" which does say he thinks he is more likely town than mafia but doesn't specifically state he is not suspicious of Sheth. I think Cats is more likely town than mafia but that doesn't meant I am not suspicious of him. Even if you disregard the semantics, the question is simple, is this scum motivated? If so how does it support a scum case. My only thinking is that it is an attempt to gain town credit by bussing Sheth early. He would get that credit whether he had been suspicious from the start or not. The "lie" really tells us nothing. There is some stuff here that doesn't say anything then You know what does in fact make me more suspicious? The actual fact that Sheth and Blurry barely talked to each other at all This is the only time one of them talked to the other one directly in early game: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 12:22 Liquid`Sheth wrote: I said this because in the last game we played together I was scum and he was town. Thats why its worded that way. Its just a claim that he has recent experience with me and I have with him. Now, after Sheth was pressured to being lynched, he posts this: + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Just going to post my thoughts on the others, as I am going to go watch Steelers v Broncos at a friends house soon, and I had some things come up today I didn't expect. 7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null 8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics. This post + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote: About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute. Just shows that you havn't put much time into the game at this point. You proceed to say something here + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote: I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things. Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way. My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved. Then you post another bad post here + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Whats up with this? Can you explain what your "gut" is and what its saying. As I think someone already brought up (Jitsu?) is that if you can't explain it in reasoning then its probably not a good reason. You then say "If I don't have evidence to back up my feelings there is no point in posting it". Regarding evidence against me. So you don't have any evidence and just a gut feeling on me and your willing to vote so quickly on this. Just this here should have everyone worried. Aren't you finding it suspicious that these lurkers are coming out of no where and willing to just throw their votes onto me because of a gut feeling? Blurry :From what I can see, Leaning Mafia strongly. 9. Gonzaw -- I don't have time to re-read all of your posts. I will do you and Probulous together hopefuly tonight before the end of the day and if I don't, well I'm sure others will. Based on just what I've seen of your posting you seemed like you were posting a lot of fluf and not really taking too many sides. Then you post a "Placeholder" vote on me even though your not convinced. You don't even wait on me to argue my side at all. You and Blurry seem to both be doing this to me. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence, that you both just have to go and blindly will kill me off, but its so bad. Why are you voting for me if you aren't convinced I'm scum. Just from what I've seen I'll say Town-Scum, but I really need to re-filter you more indepth, so this is it for now. Everyone putting your votes on me, please look into Cephiro, Blurry and Cats/Gonzaw . Those are my four scummiest reads, without knowing more about Xeris/Gretorp. Blurry doesn't even respond to him. Seems like a planned bus to me, just a way for Blurry to gain town cred once Sheth flips. And don't come and tell me this is WIFOM shit or something, if you guys believe Cats is scum too then this has to happen too. In the UG games, there's one thing I do to find scum. I see which players don't even talk to each other when not pressured to. I don't mean talk as in just quoting and saying uninteresting filler stuff. I also don't mean mentioning each other, whether to make them suspicious or defend themselves. I mean talk as in arguing with each other, pressuring each other, etc. I think this happened in the previous Newbie game too. Hell, there's a UG game where I found the entire scum team just by doing this, without any other analysis. I'm pretty convinced that works, even more considerably in a newbie game. It is WIFOM, but shit, it's WIFOM that works, just like the ones in the guides all over this place. If you don't think this holds, then there needs to be other highly incriminating/saving evidence towards it.. ##Vote: Blurry This is a good point and something I had not noticed earlier. Thank you. Also, I don't like this Cat bandwagon. It just seems so easy to lynch him. Yup, we agree on that too. | ||
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Ok, time to come clean. I know my play over the last day or so has been, how shall I say this, bad! My problem is that I would feel really bad for Cats if he was town because unlike others he has actually tried this game. Plus he was a little upset at me calling him terrible. I pushed my case day 1 and was horribly wrong, but then again so was everyone else. Day 2 I push my cased again, really hard and was right, but no-one was really offering counter arguments (except Jistu). I lost confidence today in my scum hunting abilities and wanted some contributions from others that I could read. I am still in two minds about Cats, I can't tell if he is just really bad town. If I can't make up my mind about Cats, that means the only option I have to find scum is to look elsewhere. Maybe it was a stupid plan, it was certainly not the most logical, but I felt I owed Cats something in return for his obvious commitment to this game. Finally when I took a step back I realised the reason we have been targeting Cats is because he has been active. He has been constantly changing his mind and his interactions with Sheth make him look really bad. Like I have said before there is plenty of evidence for him being scum. That very point illustrates why I am concerned about his lynch. The others have got away with posting nothing. If scum avoids the noose because a new townie posts a lot of stuff that looks scummy, I will feel real bad. He is clearly serious about playing. His posting is improving, the purpose of this game is help newbies get better. I am not saying I won't lynch Cats, I am just trying to look elsewhere. | ||
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I kind of want to lynch kronhjort just to get rid of that stupid lurking role. It is really fucking over town now. I have a scum read on Xeris which cannot be corroborated because kronhjort doesn't post. I mean the reasons we have for Cats could describe Xeris as well. His posting never took a stand on anything and he had some sort of connection with Sheth. I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game. Ceph, your game has picked up dramatically and if you can't see that Cats' is doing similar things, I am disappointed. Just look at his rebuttal of Paperscraps' case. Gonz is almost certainly town although he cannon-ball style posting makes it hard to get any real information from him. Blurry is useless but doesn't seem like scum to me. In short my brain is hurting and I don't feel like I am getting any closer to making a decision. | ||
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On January 11 2012 13:35 gonzaw wrote: Saying "Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum" is, firstly, so wishy washy it's not even funny. To say that is a "suspicion from the start", is a HUGE stretch. Like you say, it's such a huge stretch that it can be used to justify a bus. Actually, this convinces me even more he's scum. He just makes a super fluffy read on Sheth, so he can use it later to justify himself. Also, nothing in his read of Sheth implied he's suspicious of him Let's check it out. Is this suspicion? That's a logical OR; there's no analysis, there's no personal opinion, it's nothing. It's the same as saying "He's either scum or town", it's a tautology that doesn't show anything. Saying that is a "suspicion" is indeed a lie. Where's the suspicion in this? He's defending him for christ's sake, this is the opposite of suspicion. If you take the "Right now, I'm feeling...." line out, what do you think of this "read"? Do you think it's a suspicion or could even be seen as one? Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth. Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work! | ||
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Just kidding. Voting tally so far CatsnHats (3) - Blurry, Paperscraps, Cephiro Blurry (1) - Gonzaw Paperscraps (1) - CatsnHats If I had to make up mind right this instant I would lynch Paperscraps but I am not going to place my vote down yet because I am nowhere near certain of that. I will reread the thread and everyone's analysis again before making up my mind. We still have time. | ||
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On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote: @Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris. This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris "If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me" Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance. Pick up your game. | ||
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On January 11 2012 14:32 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 11 2012 14:01 Probulous wrote: Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth. Why would you assume that? How is it even a "sophisticated plan"? Shit, let's recap the "sophisticated plan": 1)Make a wishy-washy read on one of his scumbuddies 2)When his scumbuddy has a chance to be lynched, bus him 3)As for the reasons for doing it, just say that your previous wishy-washy read was a suspicion on him (1) Isn't even part of any "plan", it's just a regular scum behaviour of "not being sure" about your scumbuddies, in case you need to bus or defend them later on, and so you don't have to pressure them, talk to them, or have anything to do with them in the thread (2)Seems pretty straightforward, I don't need to explain to you why scum would bus each other when one has the chance of being lynched, right? (3)If this is "sophisticated" I'll eat my own ass. It's the easiest way for him to not make an effort in thinking up reasons to bus him. Actually it's stupid too, since eventually someone is bound to reread that and search for that "suspicion from the start" and figure out it's a bunch of fluff. Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p .....what? You want me to "tell you a story"? Do I have to make wild speculations about "what they may have thought" or some shit? What's the point? I am not here to entertain you guys. I won't start my posts with cute images, or format my posts like a book or something, or "tell stories" or whatever you mean. If I do that I waste time doing something unnecessary. Also, what do you mean "where's the scum motivation"? Isn't "be wishy washy about your scumbuddy so you don't pay attention to him, then bus him to gain town cred" enough? Isn't all that sheeping and regurgitation to lynch a townie (cookie/tea) without actually making an effort enough? Isn't all that "I'll emulate how other players post", and "I'm following my gut" to strip away any responsability and pressure from him enough? Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work! I think I expanded enough. I already pointed out almost all communication between them (I may have left some bussing from Sheth out though, but all of that can be generalised with the single post I showed). So, what do I have to "expand"? Why can't you do that on your own? Sorry for the aggresiveness, but....really? Why are you so sure Blurry is town? Also, why don't you let him defend himself? You are acting like his babysitter or something, if he's pressured let him react to it goddammit! Your play has been very weird lately Prob, shit. Fair point Gonz, I will let Blurry defend himself. I am not sure he is town, he has played terribly. I just think others look worse. | ||
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WE ARE NOT LYNCHING XERIS TODAY | ||
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On January 11 2012 14:51 Paperscraps wrote: I don't claim to know anything about Xeris, but one thing I do know is that I am not scum. Also you said this Prob Also I don't see how I was jumping on the Cats bandwagon? I posted my thoughts of him being scum(largely in part due to Jitsu getting killed and his supscions), before he was even voted up. So no bandwagon here. Also the whole thing with voting up Xeris, was just saying that I would rather lynch him than have a no-lynch. Not bandwagon either. You seem to be willing to vote for anyone who has half a case on them. My point is simple, you put effort into your case against Blurry than dropped it in favour of Xeris based on my post. I never said you were jumping on the Cats wagon, I simply want to know what makes Xeris so suspicious in your eyes that you are only willing to vote for him? You have presented no reasoning why he deserves your vote other than trying to save your own hide. That is not a reason to lynch someone, you lynch them because you believe they are scum. I have my reason for believing that either you or Xeris are scum but you have not presented yours. Why do you think Xeris is scum? | ||
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On January 12 2012 07:03 Blurry wrote: @Cats, for now I will stick with you as my scum vote. You are still my best bet for who should be lynched today. Keep in mind, if you are indeed town, and you get lynched, you dont lose the game. Your death will give us valuable information on who was pushing for your lynch. For now tell me what you think about Gonzaw. Whilst your first post today was good this is not so good. If Cats is town then him getting lynch is always bad. What information specifically would you gain from his lynch? Voting patterns perhaps, but he has been the easy lynch all game so that doesn't really tell us much. I mean most people now who have him as scum do so based on other people's analysis. Compare a possible Cats lynch to AKCT. Almost identical in that no-one was really pushing a different target. What did AKCT lynch tell us? Sweet fuck all because everyone voted for him. This is why sheeping is bad, you can't tell people's motivations for actions. Blurry, what is your response to Gonzaw's case against you. Particularly your lack of communication with Sheth given you were suspicious of him? Oh and please answerCats` question regarding Paperscraps. I can give an explanation for your early vote on Sheth that still makes you scum. You guys didn't expect Sheth to get lynched. An early vote for you takes you out of the spotlight and probably doesn't lead to his lynching. But as soon as the wagon really gets rolling what do you gain by jumping off? If you jumped off the wagon you would be under serious pressure the next day and both Sheth and you would be identified as scum. Better to leave you on and hope people give you credit for it. Let Sheth try and redirect the wagon onto someone else, if it works you are not blamed for the miss-lynch and if it doesn't you gain town cred for lynching Sheth. Sure you aren't the strongest player but you weren't under major suspicion and Sheth was. You had much to gain and little to lose. | ||
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On January 10 2012 12:11 Blurry wrote: CatsnHats, the Indecisive Thug Take a close look at that image above good sirs of the town. Would you trust this man to watch over your house when you were away on vacation? Would you trust him not to take advantage of you? Of course not! That fedora screams of lies and deceit. This is why among other reasons that shall be outlined below, that we should no longer stand for such a villain to remain living within our midst. Fancy Analycising Follows: This is an obvious bandwagon vote, and in light of recent events (Sheth is a bad person) the fact that he followed his scum-buddy in the vote makes perfect sense. Before this post he expressed his read on Cephiro as town (too lazy to quote) but as soon as that post is written up about him and Probulous and Sheth vote for him he all of a sudden thinks that Cephiro is stabbing hobos in an alleyway. I will say this to those that may claim that I have done a similar thing (which I have). I am, as Probulous so eloquently pointed out, a blatant sheep. I go where the grasses are the greenest and if someone has a good argument I believe them. CatsnHats is no sheep, he pushed for the vote of lurkers such as myself and Xeris, something that us sheeps would never be so bold to do. This leads to my next point: His change of heart which perfectly coincided with Probulous' reconciliation of Cephiro: So now the town thinks Cephiro is innocent? Better change my viewpoint so people don't think I'm more of a murderer! Need I explain more? Probably not! But I will anyways because I'm having fun with my stupid online persona. This is not unique to simply Cephiro, notice how most of his reads on people where he says they are very town to him come after the majority of the town have come to that consensus. BANDWAGONING EXTREME DERBY! Verdict: Blatant Bandwag The train continues with his hesitation on lynching Sheth. Why is he so hesitant this young sheep asked himself! It's not as if Probulous' points on Sheth were any less convincing or accurate then those he had against Cephiro? So why was he so hesitant? Because bad mafias are unable to lynch their teammates. Sheth, sensing this posts this lovely gem: I sense shenanigans! Also, his comment on my brilliant expose where I uselessly speculated on the meaning of Probulous not getting lynched reeked of indecisiveness: Let me translate that from scumspeak to townspeak for you: Guys, I want to know if I'm on the right track to being considered town again, if not I will try a different approach. Still not convinced? Well let me provide a picture of myself to convince you otherwise: Note the absence of any suspicious looking fedora and the sheepish look on my face! Of course you're going to believe me because I'm just so adorable that I must be telling the truth? Still unconvinced? Check out these testimonials! "A true force for good in our town! Blurry should be crowned supreme emperor of the town" - Kofi Anan "This man wins more than me" - Charlie Sheen "Please marry me Blurry!" - Mila Kunis Now that you are totally convinced, Vote CatsnHats for lynch. ##Vote: CatsnHats <3 Blurry, simple question. Is there anything in your case against Cats that cannot be used to explain your play? | ||
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On January 12 2012 08:43 CatsnHats wrote: EBWOP: Probulous hasn't been targeted for a lynch yet, so we can't tell for sure if Blurry's telling the truth. Whilst this claim is somewhat unexpected, it doesn't really change our vote today. I think it unlikely that blurry was going to get lynched and we can let the mafia deal with him tonight. Either he protects me tonight and I survive, or mafia target him and I surive. I die, you lynch him. If he flips blue we can take a look at people targeting him if he survives he has a lot of explaining to do. Cats, this is just so wrong I don't know what to make of it. A medic saves people from a night kill, not the lynch | ||
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##Vote Paperscraps Let do this people. I have made up my mind. Make up yours. Gonz, get off Blurry, he isn't getting lynched today | ||
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That means either he dies or I do. Of course if they have kept their roleblocks hidden then we are fucked but that seems highly unlikely to me. | ||
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##Vote Blurry | ||
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Vote Blurry. | ||
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I am doing this based on what I know. Tell me why Blurry would claim now as medic? He wasn't up for lynch but both Gonz and myself started presssuring him. If he thought he was getting lynched he should have claimed then. He didn't. It is also very convenient that he chose me every night and I was never targeted. He ahs been pushing Cats all game but as soon as Cats looks like he might get off he claims Gonz's point about not corresponding with Sheth despite having a suspicious read on him is a good one. When i asked him to explain, he refused. Lynch him. | ||
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On January 12 2012 09:46 bkrow wrote: WE DON'T HAVE TO DEAL WITH BLURRY TODAY! HE CAN DIE TOMORROW BASED ON NIGHT ACTION RESULTS Sigh. Please can we just have a consensus on paper vs cats? Yes we do. If Blurry is a medic, he dies tonight and I live. If Blurry is a medic and there is a roleblocker, he gets roleblocked and I die. You lynch him tomorrow. Scum gets a kill and possibly two misslynches, game over. He is lying, kill him. | ||
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On January 12 2012 09:50 CatsnHats wrote: Xeris (MIA) and Blurry are not going to vote for Blurry. So we would need 5 out of the 6 to get Blurry lynched. It's easier to get me or Paper lynched because Blurry would actually vote for one of us. We cannot no-lynch. I would rather no lynch than lynch a townie. There is no reason for Blurry to lie. Saving your skin by claiming only works when you claim early. I want him lynched but if that can't happen, then I will vote Paperscraps. Gonz, what is your take on this? | ||
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This one is yours! | ||
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Here comes the red text!!!! | ||
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Ok, so I am dead tonight. That much is clear. | ||
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You guys can lynch me tomorrow if I survive the night. | ||
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Here is who we have left
With two mafia somewhere in there. I know I am not mafia and pretty certain on BK being town. Given Cephiro was the one to hammer the vote that gives me two mafia in Gonz, Cats or Paperscraps. | ||
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On January 12 2012 10:18 Cephiro wrote: Care to explain to me too? I'm missing something here or then you both look quite bad in my eyes. Cats is showing he can think for himself @ Cats Don't worry mate, I am not mafia! I just made a terrible mistake. You will see when they kill me tonight. I will put together my cases overnight and we can avoid a miss-lynch tomorrow. | ||
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On January 12 2012 10:24 Cephiro wrote: Nvm, I think I get it. Unless you are one of the remaining scums, if not both of you. If you did what I think you were doing, I don't think that was a good idea. >.> I hope you'll prove me wrong. It wasn't a good idea because Blurry actually was a medic. Mafia screwed us over from the start and I overthought things. I agree with Cats on Paperscraps. He gave up and then Gonz comes roaring in with his case on Blurry. The fact that Jitsu was suspicious about Gonz also makes Gonz look bad. Blurry really screwed us by claiming at the most retarded time. The way I see it, if Cats is town then the mafia are Gonz and Paperscraps. I am going to look into Gonz' s filter and do the same thing he did to Blurry. See who has been talking to and why. Who had he avoided and why did he tunnel him so early. It is not like other people's play was much better. | ||
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You tunnelled Blurry from the start, any thoughts on other people? Shouting and writing page long rants help no-one. It makes it hard to read and hard to find what you're actually trying to say. You can't deny that the fact Jistu thought you had something interesting in your filter has no relevance when the one case you have been pushing all game turns out to be our medic. Everyone should be under suspicion so why get all arced up about it? Honestly it just makes you look worse. Ranting does not help us find scum and it doesn't exonerate you. So take a chill pill, the game is not lost, we lynch scum tomorrow and we are looking much better. | ||
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GONZAW On January 04 2012 11:39 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:31 Probulous wrote: By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options. If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR Here I made a simple comment that if someone has been roleblocked, they should claim. Gonzaw points out that the mafia could do this as well which will fuck us up. Any information for town is good, look what happened last yesterday when Blurry claimed late. We have a lot more information now than before he claimed. With enough time claims can be verified. Gonz here seems to be suggesting no-one claim when they are roleblocked which keeps town in the dark. On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:50 Probulous wrote: Fair enough but this comes down to WIFOM. I still think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. We gain nothing from these discussions right now. I want to hear from Sheth, where you at bro? Well, to be honest, I think we should get all the WIFOM-inducing things out of the way as soon as possible. That way other players will know when something is WIFOM or not (for instance if I hadn't said what I said, and the situation rose, some townies could think that it isn't in fact WIFOM and it's fact, and scum could take advantage of this). Plus, it gets some discussion going, and you can see how other players react to it (or don't react at all). Knowing that Blurry actually was the medic makes this a particularly stark breadcrumb from him. Cephiro congrats on picking that up, I should have listened to you. But I want to point out how useless WIFOM discussions are in the early game. You have zero information to work with and so cannot make reasonable assumptions. All WIFOM does at this point is inflate your post count and clog up the thread. It makes it hard to find out anything because people are discussing stuff which has no bearing on the game. Note so far Gonz hasn’t actually targeted anyone for analysis. He writes massive posts with lots of white space but doesn’t really say much. Below is his first attempt at analysis On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + I like how Probulous is pressuring people, gives me a town feel. I doubt scum would want to start town discussion as badly as him at this point. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote: I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 13:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, more then one. But the one that worries me the most. You better come here soon and explain that. I hate it when some players just post "I'll give my thoughts in a second" and never show up, whether town or scum. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote: haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) Again, this is what I'm talking about. Also, your "joke" doesn't help us at all. If you are town, you just confused the hell out of every one of us, you appeared scummy as hell and we will waste time and effort analyzing this "joke" of yours. If you are scum, then you can just use it as a justification for making a super-scummy-OMGUS first post and get away with it. Or you can use it to confuse town. Doesn't help us at all. And with this "I will analyze more" but not doing anything makes me think you are the 2nd. Fluff and filler. This is not pressure, this is pointing out obvious stuff without following through. I mean "trusting" people is suddenly a scumslip? It isn't aggressive and doesn't force responses. Then comes his vote For now I'll pressure vote Xeris to come here and post his thoughts, but if we have nothing to go on by the time the day ends I'll vote for you Nice way to undermine the value of your vote. Look at the blatant contradiction to what he said on the previous page On January 04 2012 12:33 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:23 CookieMaker wrote: We get more information because SOMEONE still gets scum-killed. The hypothetical you in this conversation gets no additional information because they already knew who the town is. @Gonz I am going on the assumption that any inactives will be talking in a hurry before the 24hour mark is up. I'm very interested to see who pipe's up just before the noose gets tied What I gathered from the games I played is, there are always inactive players, and even if you threaten to pressure vote them, or actually pressure vote them, they remain inactive for a time. At least it will guarantee they will not remain inactive the whole day, since if they do they get lynched. + Show Spoiler + Also, if an "inactive" player "talks in a hurry before the 24hour mark is up", why would he do that? That seems like a lurking scum not wanting any pressure on him whatsoever, and rushing in to not being voted, so even that gives us info. The rest of his analysis has him pointing out stuff about Cats and Cookie’s play but again he isn’t aggressive. He doesn’t explain how this makes them mafia or why it isn’t just a newbie mistake. In fact he mentioned Gretorp, Xeris, Cats and Cookie as scummy but voted for Xeris with a “pressure” vote which he himself says does nothing. He then gets into a discussion with Xeris about Random Voting for some reason. There is some back and forth with Cats and stuff about timezones. There are a lot of posts but not much substance. Then straight after my case on Cookie, Cats and Cephiro he post this long thing On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote: [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro.+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also Probulous, something I want to clear: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote: Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time). Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely I still stand by what I said. Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there? Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved? For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before. If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked. It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later. Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but + Show Spoiler + Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM? Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. Note that he had mentioned Cookie’s stuff earlier but never called him out on it. Then my case comes up and bam he is scum. His reasoning is that Cookie made a big “read” on who is town? As he says your role is to find scum, well Gonz at this point you had not found anyone except Xeris. A lurker who hadn’t posted anything of note. He then gets on Cookie’s case because Cookie trusts people. How are these two things, finding townies and trusting people, a mafia trait? Sure they are not the best townie play but they are hardly pushing a scum agenda. They are pushing for a miss-lynch. The rest of the post doesn’t tell us anything and an EBWOP which is also massive. However this is interesting. On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + EBWOP2: Shit I feel so stupid, I had another tab opened with the response and didn't see it >_> + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates 7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum. 8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum. 9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town. 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. 11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him. 12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral. Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence? Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of? If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not? Also: Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so? He calls out Blurry for standing by his insistence that people claim when they are roleblocked, saying it should be obvious. This is a blatant contradiction from his earlier stance on the issue. Some more WIFOM stuff, a discussion about Smurfs and some back and forth with me about what a lynch says about someone. Here is an interesting post. On January 05 2012 14:57 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic). He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here. I thought that was pretty apparent. Also, I suggest everybody keeps a notepad or something open with all the votes/suspicions/important events/thoughts and stuff. I know I do, and it will come very handy to you guys. Also, if you can't reread the thread, or do a simple CTRL+F with "##" search to figure out the vote tally, then it means you aren't really putting that much effort into the game (which is odd from you, so I guess you are just being lazy or something now, or trying to gauge someone's reaction or something). Note that Sheth’s point is that if someone claims a roleblock, then there is likely to be a medic or DT. Mafia have not roleblocked all game, I believe this was their plan from the start. Hence why Gonz points outs the WIFOM to Blurry and why Sheth was so keen to talk about roleblocking and blue roles. In particular the DT. Gonz defends him here as talking to the DT. This post was scummy as hell to me because there was no reason for Sheth to be talking about the DT. We had decided that before, but instead he tries to talk directly to them giving them misinformation. He says that if there is a roleblock then the DT knows there is a medic. Well as per previous discussions this is all WIFOM because scum could claim a roleblock. Gonz was the one to point that out but here he defends Sheth. I misread Sheth’s post but upon rereading it looks worse. The fact that Gonz was so quick to defend him makes him scum in my eyes. Gonz doesn’t really change his style for the rest of the game. He writes these massive posts with very little content. Voting analysis Gonz first vote for a AKCT was because Cookie was scum. His reasons as pointed out were that Cookie was finding townies and trusted people. He never presented an updated case on Cookie. He called him out on small things but never presented a case that shows the scum agenda behind Cookie’s actions. His response on when Cookie flipped town ”Hmmm...” Such surprise! He then immediately jump onto Blurry. Now think for a second, we just lynched someone who was obvious a newb town. We lynched him because his play was wishy-washy and it made him look like scum. So what does Gonz do, he jumps on a new candidate which looks exactly like AKCT. His case on Blurry is so full of holes. On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote: Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever): 1-For previous reasons of certain players 2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch. Players in the 1st category would include: Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry Players in the 2nd category would include: CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo *sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch. However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before. Tunkmeg was the first one to FoS him (I think), but he stated his reasons, and were actually good ones, so quoting him or discussing it any further wouldn't do us much good. About Blurry though: Here he just used Hippo's point to FoS him. Doesn't seem like he put too much effort in analyzing him. Again he's using other people's analysis as well (Prob pointed that out Cookie's sheeping of Jitsu first).. At least Tunkmeg came up with points of his own to FoS Cookie, Blurry seems to regurgitate things already said. Something I don't like here, same as Xeris, Cats, etc. DON'T.APOLOGIZE.FOR.NOTHING Need I remind you to read Ver's Guide, were supposedely the Mider guy was obvious mafia because of his constant apologizing and undermining himself? I already stated my opinion on this subject though (when I responded to Xeris). I pointed out that you don't need to assume unnecessary things. This is not actual WIFOM, but it's a false statement ragarding a WIFOM scenario, which is the same if not worse than the WIFOM itself (but yeah, we still all call it WIFOM nevertheless). You also have a very short filter (post more), and I don't like that "I will emulate other players" attitude: In fact, you didn't respond to me when I pointed that out either. I don't really have a red read on him yet, since he posted way too little. But I want him pressured next day, along Xeris and Gretorp. His suspicions are based on actions which were identical to Cookies. Then he gets into a huge argument with Tunk about stupid stuff which I still don’t understand. Tunk rightly points out that Gonz is being distracting. I stupidly assume mafia would not put themselves in the spotlight like this by arguing with their night kill right before the day post. It is bad WIFOM and I shouldn’t have done that. Again it looks like Gonz is being an aggressive poster trying to catch people but in reality he pulls Tunk up on stupid stuff. It was clear that Tunk was town the same for Jitsu. But earlier he called Jitsu out for supposedly claiming to be scum. This whole episode just reeks of looking like contributing without contributing. He puts a placeholder vote on Sheth. On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 10:19 Probulous wrote: Gonz man, what the hell is this shit? You call others out for wishy-washy play but then post this contortion. You think my case makes sense but Sheth's response will tell you more? If the case is solid, nothing Sheth says should change your mind. He can always cast doubt on what I have written. I could forgive you for that, Ceph's defense for example shows what happens when a townie gets a case brought against him. But what is the null read (until now at least) Is he null or not? You either are waiting for more info (null case) or you think he is mafia (until now case). How can you have both positions in the same sentence? Would you be willing to lynch Sheth? ?? I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him. You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time. I don't get how that could be misinterpreted. And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written. However I won't be around to see it. I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time. I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though. So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth. ##Vote: Liquid`Sheth Whilst at the same time calling out Blurry on his WIFOM. The irony that Gonz is apparently the king of WIFOM but he finds Blurry’s WIFOM a scum tell? Then comes his massive rant after Jitsu’s mentions him before his death. On January 10 2012 11:36 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + FUUUUUUUUUU... Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread. I'll respond as I see fit though. Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? ...WTF is this WIFOM shit? Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis. And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez... + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get? Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them. I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again. + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote: I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up. For fucks sake. I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do? I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!! I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Wtf is this? So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts? You say you are going by "your gut"? Wtf? Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter. I'll check the Cat situation too. Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist. Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town. This doesn’t say anything except more crap about Blurry. As far I can tell he has no case against Blurry. Everything used to describe Blurry’s play could be used to describe Cats’ play. Hel Gonz was the king of WIFOM and he hasn’t explained how WIFOM at this point of the game is bad. It is certainly better now than in the early days. At least now we have some information to go off. Then comes his vote for Blurry which I have responded to. The only thing that is of note is that Blurry hardly corresponded with Sheth. Of course he hardly corresponded with anyone so that doesn’t really mean anything. But Gonz goes balls to wall on Blurry. I point out that Blurry would have had to bus Sheth very early for his case to make sense and given Blurry’s play it seems to sophisticated. Of course Gonz points out that the plan is pretty simple. He knows because that is exactly what he did. Blurry had no shown high quality play all game. He hadn’t provided any reads and was waffling a lot, Gonz however has shown he is willing to make risky decisions. He is willing to put himself out there. Thus I think it highly likely he would do something like bus Sheth. Especially since he was already seen as town. He then attacks me for defending Blurry. I stupidly (sorry Blurry I was bad yesterday) back down. If I believe someone is town then I should defend them. Hell if you think someone is mafia you should attack but let others counter your arguments. Only mafia know for sure if someone is town. Gonz’s insistence that Blurry defend himself only makes sense from a mafia point of view. A town’s person wants to know where he is wrong. He cannot be certain, but Gonz doesn’t want counter arguments. Thoughts people? | ||
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On January 12 2012 13:54 Paperscraps wrote: Just got back from school. Wow oh wow at what happened. Dang I wish Blurry didn't make a huge blunder like that. Town is in bad shape. Seems like Cats and Prob or Gonz are mafia. Will be interesting to see who they target tonight. If Prob dies, then it is Cats and Gonz If Gonz dies, then it is Cats and Prob If I die, which I won't think will happen due to people being suspicious of me, then I don't know who the last mafia is. You seem pretty sure on surviving the night. You made it pretty clear that Cats, myself and Gonz are going to have to do some serious explaining but suddenly we are the night targets? Surely, surely it makes more sense for mafia to kill of the ones that are clearly town. The ones under suspicion have a chance at being lynched. | ||
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Here is my issue people. I don't believe Cats is scum and neither is BK. I am not scum either. That means two scum in either Gonzaw, Paperscraps or Cephiro. How do I choose between Gonz and Cephiro? Gonz has been aggressive and forthright. He has pointed out issues with people's play however the only case he really pushed was Blurry's. Cephiro started badly but nailed Sheth. Since then he has been active and provided some pretty good cases. His finding of Blurry's breadcrumbs being one example. Gonz attitude is disruptive to town and has been since he went after Tunk. He reaction to Jitsu's comments was of useless. Of course you are going to be upset but as I pointed out that doesn't help town. Yet he continues to be be disruptive. His case presented today is alright. Gonz if you think I am scum come out and say it, posting a case like that makes me look bad but allows you to back out. The fact is at this point in time you have to make assumptions on who is town because otherwise scum win. We can't have everybody suspicious of everybody, that is fertile ground for a miss-lynch. Yes re-read people's filters but take a stand on who you think is scum or town. Ceph, where you at? | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:10 Cephiro wrote: Well hell, I was expecting something to happen once we get closer to the daypost, but this is interesting. Probu accusing Gonzaw with a huge post and vice versa. (Even though Gonzaw is also pointing at Paperscraps.) This certainly isn't making my analysis any easier... but whatever happens during the night should tell quite a lot. Ceph, work backwards. Who do you think is town? A crucial point is Cats, do you think a Cats, Paperscraps team is likely? Then once you have that, it comes down to making a decision on who you think is the scummiest of the remainder. I still think you could be scum. You didn't exactly nail anyone to the wall yesterday and haven't presented your thoughts yet. The only thing really going in my favour is that I have been very open with you guys. I pushed Sheth's lynch and have been very open with my reads. I was the first to really go after anyone and I have changed my reads when new info comes to light. | ||
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Why? See I don't understand this. If we are scummy as hell then surely it makes sense for us to be kept alive? That way one of us can be up for the lynch tomorrow. I would be more worried about yourself or BK (probably BK most of all). Think of it from a mafia point of view, confusion is what leads to a miss-lynch. What shot puts town in the biggest state of chaos? Well one where we gain no information, hence BK stay indoors. | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:39 Cephiro wrote: EBWOP: This is true, but I have my reasons for not doing that. And in all honesty, yesterday was really confusing. You can't expect me to nail someone to the wall every day. I did pressure you and Cats though, for a reason. The way you pushed for Blurry's lynch after Gonzaw's post didn't exactly go that well did it? Unless it's what you wanted... Yeah I did bad but at least I took a stance. If I get lynched for that, so be it. As you say I had my reasons. I was confused just like everyone else but I went with what made sense to me. I was wrong but that ok, I'm allowed to be wrong. Being wrong means I stood up for what I felt was the right thing to do, unlike others who just sheep. You did really well in the short time we had. I stupidly dismissed your breadcrumb evidence and that is why you are on my town list. I said I was playing badly yesterday and it was clearly true. Blurry did us no favours by claiming when he did but I made the situation worse. It's alright though, we will lynch scum today and then finish them off tomorrow. | ||
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When Blurry claimed I did not believe that scum had a role-blocker. Why would they withhold their one weapon that hides information from us? For two nights no less. Especially after Sheth died. So I figured Blurry must be lying. Hence I pushed for his lynch. Then I ran the scenario through my head that mafia had kept their role-blocker secret all game and Blurry was a medic. Well with his claim so close to deadline and Gonz pushing for his lynch it would make sense for mafia to roleblock him and shoot me. That way Blurry looks scummy as hell and would probably get lynched. So either way we lose myself and Blurry. In addition, we could have miss-lynched yesterday which would mean a Blurry miss-lynch would win the game for mafia. If Blurry was a medic I would come out looking scummy as hell if I pushed for his lynch, hopefully that would save me from a nightkill. My reads have been Sheth for the first night because of Cephiro’s post My read the second night was Hippo/Bk. This was because I wanted to remove one of the lurkers from my list. Hippo was looking scummy and I couldn’t make up my mind, hence the read. Bk is town. The problem is that we were one miss-lynch away yesterday and we are still one miss-lynch away from losing. I was hoping my gamble would save me tonight so I could get a read on Gonz. Of course it is likely that I have been roleblocked if not shot but there is a small possibility that they don’t think I am the DT. Plus leaving me alive for so long makes me look really scummy. I have not investigated Cats but don't feel he is mafia based on his play. That leaves two mafia in
If I survive we can discuss this later. If not, good luck guys and I wish town the best! | ||
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It doesn't help us out at all. It just makes it hard to read what you are trying to say. | ||
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So before I pass on the great beyond known as the Observer QT, Cats if you are town I want to congratulate you and really picking up your play. You would the award for most improved in my eyes. | ||
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On January 05 2012 14:09 Probulous wrote: Can we try to agree on something :p This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden. On January 05 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote: On the topic of DTs, medics and the such. I stand by what I wrote in my analysis of both Cookie and Cephiro, I don't want to discuss them. My personel preference is for blues to stay hidden and do their own thing. I agree that a medic should obviously choose a dangerous townie (dangerous from a mafia POV), but again we don't need to discuss this. This is the last thing I will say about blue roles. On January 05 2012 14:19 Probulous wrote: *Personal. I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame For those interested. This was when Sheth was going on about the DT. | ||
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Comparing Cats, Paperscraps, Blurry and Hippo and they look very similar. Obviously there is a scum in there somewhere but Cats did enough to redeem himself in my eyes. So if he scum, then well played. | ||
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Secondly, FUCK YOU CEPHIRO I've said it before, if you were scum you deserved the win. I really feel town was screwed by having a scum team that just vastly outplayed the majority of the town. Tunk and Jitsu (especially) played really well but as always the good die young. If you look at the rest of the days there was me against Gonzaw and Cephiro. Cats played really well in the end, but had no credit. Blurry lurked and then WTF claimed, the rest of town provided almost nothing. Knowing that Cephiro was scum makes me feel good about my reads. If Ceph wasn't scum then my first day reads were all wrong! My DT checks were pretty spot on though, Sheth and Gonzaw were red so I am happy with that. But by far my best play I feel was changing my read on Cats. It is really hard to go back and change something that you are sure of but in this case it was the right thing to do. As for scum you played very well, it is kind of ironic that the only reason I looked at Sheth night one was cause of Ceph but it bought him town cred with me. His noticing of Blurry's breadcrumbs was also brilliant play. Gonz, you played well but your over aggressive responses made it very clear to me you were scum. Of course it didn't matter because I died but if they others had read over my case it would have been clear. So awards MVP - Town goes to Jitsu, scum goes to Ceph for his response to my case day 1. Most improved - Cats, no question there. WTF? Blurry and his fail claim Thanks Grey I really enjoyed the game. I think the lesson for town in this game is that everyone needs to participate and evaluate on their own. There were times where the only people questioning my read were scum | ||
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On January 15 2012 12:02 gonzaw wrote: I'd like to point something out about it. First, yes, it was a bad claim. However, Blurry was very unlucky. First, there was a RBer, which means the RBer (yours truly ) could RB him, and basicly make him lynched the next day (had Blurry survived the lynch). Second, if Prob had thought there was a RBer, then he wouldn't have pushed for Blurry's lynch, and may even have believed him (when Blurry was eventually RBed). This was less bad play from Prob and Blurry, and I think better play from scum that decided not to RB both nights. EDIT: Also, if Blurry wasn't lynched (and there was a NL), I don't know if Prob would have suspected I was scum at that point. I think he would have checked Paper or Blurry perhaps (so he would really know if there is a RBer or not). EDIT: You don't? >_> <_< Yeah, prior to the Blurry claim I was tossing up between Paper and Cephiro. There were some things he said that didn't sound right and I knew if he was scum we were fucked. Plus if he was town I could add him to Bk and then by process of elimination lynch you. Of course, Blurry claimed and my mind went into WTF mode. What do people think of my reasoning for going after Blurry. I was fairly certain there were no rolebockers and even if there were, if we let Blurry live, scum could roleblock him and shoot me. That would almost certainly lead to a Blurry miss-lynch and a win for scum. Plus nobody was 100% on the lynch target besides Blurry. So in essence if we let Blurry live and miss-lynched that night, scum would win anyway. My hope was to appear so scummy and be a target that I might survive. | ||
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Anyway, well played. I put a lot of effort into this game and would have liked a win, but I can say that town as a whole was outplayed. | ||
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On January 15 2012 14:27 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Well that was interesting, I felt a lot flakier than I should have been, I kinda wish I had been around more for those guys. They were really active and put A LOT of effort in when they needed to, I really didn't see town winning even at the end of night 1. //scum coach other coaches can suck it because my coachings better You had it easy mate! Coaching a team that is motivated, participating and can ask you any questions they want is much easier than providing general advice. @Palmar, what are your thoughts on the overall game. Were there any other coaches? Finally, I don't think I will be playing much more. This takes a huge amount of time and effort which I am may not have in the near future. Maybe a mini game. | ||
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