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United States2095 Posts
Just going to post my thoughts on the others, as I am going to go watch Steelers v Broncos at a friends house soon, and I had some things come up today I didn't expect.
7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null
8. Blurry -- Havn't filtered you in depth yet, but can get into basics.
This post
+ Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:About me being inactive: Sorry,I've been out all day since I'm on vacation in Montreal, and while it says I'm from Switzerland I recently moved to USA (EST) and have neglected to change my profile because I'm a little bit homesick+lazy. Anyways: back to the game, 1: Cookiemaker AnxiousHippo raised a very good point about Cookiemakers most recent post in his stating that trust has been developing amongst certain townies without providing examples. There was no reason for him to say this other than to try and fluff up his posts. Right now he seems scummy to me. 2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. 3: AnxiousHippo Cites his inexperience as a way out of having to provide much analysis but also hasn't said anything too scummy. I'm feeling neutral. 4: Cephiro Provided a lot of good points and has contributed a good deal to the discussion. I don't think think Mafia would be leading the discussion like he has been, especially at this level. Definitely leaning towards town on him. 5: Tunkeg Tries to get everybody to contribute which I like. Is very clear in his stance which is another good thing. Leaning towards town on him. 6: Jitsu I'm getting a town vibe from him as well as he asked for someones opinion on himself. This could however be a clever mafia play to try and discover where the holes in his play are. Leaning towards town as he has been pressuring people to contribute.
Just shows that you havn't put much time into the game at this point.
You proceed to say something here + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum.
You assume that mafia targeted Tunkeg for a completely different reason then I believe. You believe its because of his reads on people such as myself / gonzaw and cephiro. You feel like thats why it was him instead of Probulous. I think its just because up to this point Probulous was the most "town" feeling and mafia was worried there was a medic involved.
Then you post another bad post here
+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.
Whats up with this? Can you explain what your "gut" is and what its saying. As I think someone already brought up (Jitsu?) is that if you can't explain it in reasoning then its probably not a good reason. You then say "If I don't have evidence to back up my feelings there is no point in posting it". Regarding evidence against me. So you don't have any evidence and just a gut feeling on me and your willing to vote so quickly on this. Just this here should have everyone worried. Aren't you finding it suspicious that these lurkers are coming out of no where and willing to just throw their votes onto me because of a gut feeling?
Blurry :From what I can see, Leaning Mafia strongly.
9. Gonzaw -- I don't have time to re-read all of your posts. I will do you and Probulous together hopefuly tonight before the end of the day and if I don't, well I'm sure others will. Based on just what I've seen of your posting you seemed like you were posting a lot of fluf and not really taking too many sides. Then you post a "Placeholder" vote on me even though your not convinced. You don't even wait on me to argue my side at all. You and Blurry seem to both be doing this to me. I'm not sure if this is a coincidence, that you both just have to go and blindly will kill me off, but its so bad. Why are you voting for me if you aren't convinced I'm scum. Just from what I've seen I'll say Town-Scum, but I really need to re-filter you more indepth, so this is it for now.
Everyone putting your votes on me, please look into Cephiro, Blurry and Cats/Gonzaw . Those are my four scummiest reads, without knowing more about Xeris/Gretorp.
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Before I go to watch the game (steelers v broncos) I'll put my vote down where I think it can do some good. As again a no-lynch is a bad option, I'll understand if you lynch me as opposted to no one, but please this is just going to tell you I'm town and force you to look harder at Probulous and those who bandwagoned me for no reason or bad reasons, which I think you can already do now. I would much rather see Blurry or Cats lynched today (Cephiro if I thought I could get him possibly, and Gonzaw I havn't done a full read so I don't feel ok lynching him yet).
Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on.
##Vote: Catsnhats
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On January 09 2012 05:33 CatsnHats wrote:
@Sheth You aren't my best read on scum, I said the town had the best case against you because Prob had just made his long analysis post. Then you defended yourself, which I was waiting on, and because of it I'm not comfortable voting for you. I'm still convinced than when Xeris and Gretorp are killed one of them will turn red, and Hippo and Blurry have always been more questionable than you in my eyes. Honestly I would vote for myself with Jitsu and you if it meant keeping you alive, because you are obviously much better at making reads and are a bigger asset to the town than I am.
@CatsnHats
Wowowowow what is this. You're just doing this really passive sort of thing and trying to self-lynch yourself. There is NO reason you should do this if you are townie. You should FIND someone you think is scum.
THERE IS NO REASON FOR YOU TO VOTE FOR YOURSELF IF YOUR TOWN. It means its the lurkers, or one of the actives, people are good at hiding if there mafia and we need townies alive and fighting. I see no reason for a townie to try this a second time, but man if your town this is going to be really bad if we lynch you. Here, I'll try and steel internet from my friends house (where I'm watching the game) and keep watching this thread and what your saying. I'm not letting you off because of this though, we'll see if you can change my mind before then.
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@Blurry / Anxious / Xeris / Gretorp / Cephiro
We need you to choose a side.
When will the inactives be replaced/killed and will they affect our voting? For instance if Xeris / Gretorp don't vote, will the majority needed be 5 instead of 6?
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On January 09 2012 07:33 Probulous wrote:
I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.
He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.
If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.
Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).
Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?
Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?
So far we have the following votes:
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)
Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)
We are waiting the following to vote
Cats
AnxiousHippo
Xeris
Gretorp
Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth
This post is so bad again. I get your worried about me being "dangerous" and all. But I don't see how I am. Its all based on analysis and now your not even going to use your logic, your just calling me dangerous and trying to get people scared of me.
You even in this post call Cats "So scummy now". If you think hes so scummy you just want me dead because I'm dangerous to you and not following along with you.
If it comes down to it at the end, would you move your vote to Cats to stop a no-lynch Prob ?
@Cephiro Your argument is so flawed.
You say
"Nice try on dodging the fact you joined the Tea bandwagon without providing close to any content yourself. "Read my filter".
Well I did and I didn't find you pressuring nor being even very much against Tea at all, just sheeping "He is scum", after reading Probu's analysis.
Why do you find Cats down? Because you want to save your scumbuddy! But now you are both being revealed, how does that feel?"
As Probulous pointed out a bit ago, I helped finish the lynch on Tea, because a no-lynch woudln't have told us anything. You keep bringing this up against me, when Probulous also did this. You didn't find Tea scum according to you and yet you voted on him, so picking on me for this is insane.
When you say why do I find Cats down? What do you mean by this? And why would I vote for Cats in effect putting him as the second lynch of the night if he was mafia? I could have easily picked Blurry and removed all chance of Cats getting lynched tonight.
You say "
I certainly hope I get to see this and use it against you scum.
"
FEEL FREE TO LOOK FOR IT. I SPENT ALMOST 2 HOURS WRITING IT AND YOUR PRESSURING ME WITHOUT EVEN READING MY ARGUMENT. I DONT EVEN UNDERSTAND.
When you're away for a while PLEASE READ THE THREAD. WTH!? JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA.
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On January 09 2012 08:02 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 05:29 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
7. Probulous -- Townie at the start. Sooo townie at the start. Has recently started making a few logical mistakes. (Both against myself and Cephiro). Implying that Cephiro is a confirmed townie has me looking at you so much right now, but as of now my brain can't make sense of you. Null Just wanted to point out that Cephiro is by no means a confirmed townie. His play on Day 1 was terrible and deserved the case presented, however his play since has been incisive and focused. He was the first the really go after Sheth, which would be one hell of a bus if both were mafia. I know its WIFOM but I highly doubt both are mafia, it just doesn't fit the arguments presented. So it comes down to deciding between them. Sheth's play has been consistent throughout this game whilst Cephiro's improved dramatically after my case. Thus I think Cephiro is more likely to be town than mafia. This does not mean that he is confirmed town, I wasn't even implying that. I simply said he looks more townie after his response to my case. The only confirmed town I have right now is Jistu, simply because of his play. Gonz I am almost certain of and Cephiro is looking good. The rest of you, pick up your game. Voting for Sheth would be one way to do just that.
Very ironic. He suggest picking up your game by bandwagoning me based on only his reasoning.
Also, you post that your worried about me because I can "pick up my play" with help from what you've brought against me. Yet you completely ignore the fact that YOU SAY Cephiro did JUST that.
You actually even suggest I probably won't do that in this post when you say that my play has been consistent. You also say earlier that you won't remove your vote off me earlier, so does this mean that you'd rather have a no-lynch then lynch cats?
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When Sheth flips town hes going to look really really good. - -
If I cared about being in the spotlight I woudln't have even started this thing against Ceph and don't pretend you were the FIRST to notice him. You also switched votes before me on to AKCT if I recall correctly. Quit just blatantly lieing about that too. I suggested a No-lynch was worse then a lynch and you agreed. This was solid reasoning, quit taking good reasoning and saying it wasn't and it makes me scum.
And trust me, I'm trying my best to Prove that Ceph is scum. You earlier posted how you didn't notice when everyone just jumped onto A Killer Cuppa Tea that you should have stopped the train on him and known he wasn't scum. How do you not notice it happening to me now? Suspiciously Hippo or some one like Cats/Jitsu will change there vote on me at the end and voila everyone just kills off the townie and no one is at fault.
I hate that Blurry already put his vote on me for "gut" feeling. And Gonzaw too basically. I'm just getting bandwagoned and its not the right thing to do. I've refuted all of your points or admited when I made a mistake. I'm NOT mafia.
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On January 09 2012 08:41 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 08:19 Liquid`Sheth wrote:On January 09 2012 07:33 Probulous wrote:
I am not scared of Cats if he is mafia. He is so scummy now that he little to no influence on the town. He is not a threat (sorry Cats but that is plainly true). Sheth, clearly has influence.
He has played this game very well but not well enough. I would implore you that if you let him live tonight, he can take what we have written and change his game to suit. Cats play does not look like someone who has a team behind them. It is wishy-wasy and bandwagonny as anything, but it isn't dangerous. Hell he doesn't even know who he is voting for. No Cats, is not a problem.
If he is mafia, he is a mafia with no town cred. In all likelihood he will get lynched either today or tomorrow but he will never be listened to. He has had too many chances. Sheth however is dangerous. He has shown himself capable enough to sow doubt, let him live and he will do more.
Sheth is trying to push the lynch onto someone easy, someone who has not played this game well. I am willing to put my credibility on the line that Sheth is scum. Last lynch, I capitulated instead of forcing my case. I was certain that Cookie was scum but even more so of Cephiro. Then when Ceph showed how he can actually play I realised my mistake, I accepted Cookie's lynch because he was already on my list, but unfortunately it allowed others to sheep. There was no other lynch being pushed (a sure sign of a miss-lynch coming).
Well today we don't have that problem, everyone has a simple choice. Who is the better lynch, Sheth or Cats?
Clearly Sheth is more dangerous, and Cats play looks similar to Cookie's, except that he has tried to defend himself (terribly but the effort is there). If you accept that a mafia Sheth is more dangerous than a mafia Cats, the question is quite simple, is Sheth scum?
So far we have the following votes:
Sheth (4) (Probulous, Gonzaw, Blurry the blatant sheep, Cephiro)
Cats (2) (Jitsu, Sheth)
We are waiting the following to vote
Cats
AnxiousHippo
Xeris
Gretorp
Come on guys, don't do this last minute. Take a stand and lynch Sheth This post is so bad again. I get your worried about me being "dangerous" and all. But I don't see how I am. Its all based on analysis and now your not even going to use your logic, your just calling me dangerous and trying to get people scared of me. You even in this post call Cats "So scummy now". If you think hes so scummy you just want me dead because I'm dangerous to you and not following along with you. If it comes down to it at the end, would you move your vote to Cats to stop a no-lynch Prob ? Are you seriously suggesting that you are not more dangerous than Cats? Cats has zero town cred, you had plenty and the fact that Jitsu still hasn't moved his vote suggest the same. You have pushed arguments and swayed town. It was you who convinced me to change my vote after which remarkably, AKCT was lynched within half an hour. I am taking responsibility for my vote, I have explained it. In this particular instance I look as guilty as you, but I had my reasons. Like I said Ceph's respons confused the hell out of me, but you, your only reason for not lynching Ceph was to avoid a no-lynch. You still thought (and do) think he is scum but you didn't even try and convince others. You didn't even try and avoid AKCT lynch, why? Why, if Cephiro is your number one scum read do you just give up when two people vote in another direction? I had a reason to change, I started to think Cephiro was not mafia. You still had him as your number one mafia pick and yet you suggested we switch. Given how many votes rolled in after mine, it would have been possible to lynch Ceph. But no, it was easier to lynch AKCT and then go into day 2 hoping Ceph was still looking scummy. That way you could convince us to lynch him Day 2. This had the added benefit that you didn't have to post your "nail him to the wall" read until much later. Sorry Sheth but you had no real reason to give up your case on Ceph so easily. That was damning in my eyes. Show nested quote +
When you're away for a while PLEASE READ THE THREAD. WTH!? JUST BUSSING ME FOR NO REASON. YOUR SO MAFIA.
You do realise the only way that Ceph could be bussing you is if your both mafia? 
I get that I'm "dangerous" if I'm mafia. I'm just not and this basing your argument against me is horrible. Also if you may have noticed most of my posts have been me defending myself, however when I'm not defending myself I'm adamantly pointing out Cephiro to be scum.
And Really!? I got angry and used a bad termonology. Ask Jitsu, bussing was used for a mafia trying to just get another townie lynched with no reason in our last game. I also used all CAPS and said YOUR instead of You're, care to lynch me based on those as well?
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The irony on the You're...
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That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.
Post 3. More coming up.
Then read my filter please... I realize its a lot, But your on my list of everyone. I took the time to write up a list about just about everyone and my reads and you're ignoring it. Stop doing that please.
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EBWOP
That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit.
Post 3. More coming up.
Was said by Cephiro
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You say
"
I had a reason to switch from Cephiro, I still felt he was mafia but his posts had thrown me. I needed more time to evaluate his defense because it rang true to me. I had both pegged as scum and so when evidence arose that Cephiro might not be scum, I switched. You still believed Cephiro was more likely to be scum than Cats but you suggest we switch to avoid a no-lynch? We still had time and votes available. I admit I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you haven't. Why would you give up your case against Cephiro so easily?
"
Several people had already said that they were going to be gone for the rest of the day and coudln't change there vote. At the time if you remember there were maybe 3-4 people even online at the time. I never "gave up my case" but I did cause the lynch of CM because I was sure it was either that or No-lynch. Which was the RIGHT decision."
This reasoning is abusrd, your contradicting yourself as well. you say "I should not have switched so easily, it was a bad move and I have explained that, but you havn't." when I have in fact.
I thought it was obvious because I included it in my reason for switching to AKCT was because it was either him or a no-lynch.
And then you say
"Where did I say that you voted for him first? I didn't. You suggested it. Here is your suggestion
"
I Never said I didn't suggest it first, just that you did it before even I could switch. It was only a suggestion to see if you were willing and the fact that I was worried about a no-lynch.
And you're putting words in my mouth with your defense here :
But I was the first to post a full case and vote for him. Don't try and pretend that I wasn't the first to actively push for his lynch. I was the one who did that, not you. You "leaned" on him remember?
I said "Notice" I didn't even say Lean or actively push for a lynch. If I get lynched here because of this faulty logic I'm just gonna sit and laugh at this for a while. This is so messed up.
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Please do Cephiro, it'll give me more ways to catch you up on mistakes.
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I'm here Probulous. Well, @Cats Please switch your vote to me.
@Hippo or anyone else please finish the voting on me.
I've said all along that a no-lynch helps no one. I'm a townie and this won't help much to kill me, but a lynch is better then none here and now you'll know who to lynch tomorrow instead of myself. If you woudln't lynch me today, you'd just keep getting everyone to bandwagon me the following day. This isn't acceptable and I want to win.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth
@Cats thanks for believing in me.
@Probulous if your town KILL CEPHIRO for me. I still think Xeris isn't mafia based just on my stupid 2 line analysis, but w/e.
@Gonzaw Placeholder vote -- without letting me defend myself, thanks...
@Cephiro, I really hope they catch you next round. You've played well in getting them to lynch me though.
@Jitsu your my main town read, medic save either him or Probulous.
@Lurkers Thanks for letting me die.
Hopefully this helps us win. GL the rest of you. And sorry I didn't always post the perfeet defenses that I should have, it sucks to die like this, but I think its best for all of us. I'm always one for long goodbyes... <3 GL guys!
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Ok, thats 7 on me. Take care guys <3 GL!
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##Unvote: Liquid`Sheth
##Vote: CatsnHats
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Please do Cats  It was a fun game, GL!
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Sure, feel free Probulous!
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Well played guys <3 Cephiro our plan was perfect and you and Gonz played it perfectly. <3
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EPT
