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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Here is who we have left
With two mafia somewhere in there. I know I am not mafia and pretty certain on BK being town. Given Cephiro was the one to hammer the vote that gives me two mafia in Gonz, Cats or Paperscraps. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 12 2012 10:18 Cephiro wrote: Care to explain to me too? I'm missing something here or then you both look quite bad in my eyes. Cats is showing he can think for himself @ Cats  Don't worry mate, I am not mafia! I just made a terrible mistake. You will see when they kill me tonight. I will put together my cases overnight and we can avoid a miss-lynch tomorrow. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 12 2012 10:24 Cephiro wrote: Nvm, I think I get it. Unless you are one of the remaining scums, if not both of you. If you did what I think you were doing, I don't think that was a good idea. >.> I hope you'll prove me wrong. It wasn't a good idea because Blurry actually was a medic. Mafia screwed us over from the start and I overthought things. I agree with Cats on Paperscraps. He gave up and then Gonz comes roaring in with his case on Blurry. The fact that Jitsu was suspicious about Gonz also makes Gonz look bad. Blurry really screwed us by claiming at the most retarded time. The way I see it, if Cats is town then the mafia are Gonz and Paperscraps. I am going to look into Gonz' s filter and do the same thing he did to Blurry. See who has been talking to and why. Who had he avoided and why did he tunnel him so early. It is not like other people's play was much better. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
You tunnelled Blurry from the start, any thoughts on other people? Shouting and writing page long rants help no-one. It makes it hard to read and hard to find what you're actually trying to say. You can't deny that the fact Jistu thought you had something interesting in your filter has no relevance when the one case you have been pushing all game turns out to be our medic. Everyone should be under suspicion so why get all arced up about it? Honestly it just makes you look worse. Ranting does not help us find scum and it doesn't exonerate you. So take a chill pill, the game is not lost, we lynch scum tomorrow and we are looking much better. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
GONZAW On January 04 2012 11:39 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:31 Probulous wrote: By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options. If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR Here I made a simple comment that if someone has been roleblocked, they should claim. Gonzaw points out that the mafia could do this as well which will fuck us up. Any information for town is good, look what happened last yesterday when Blurry claimed late. We have a lot more information now than before he claimed. With enough time claims can be verified. Gonz here seems to be suggesting no-one claim when they are roleblocked which keeps town in the dark. On January 04 2012 12:11 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 11:50 Probulous wrote: Fair enough but this comes down to WIFOM. I still think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. We gain nothing from these discussions right now. I want to hear from Sheth, where you at bro? Well, to be honest, I think we should get all the WIFOM-inducing things out of the way as soon as possible. That way other players will know when something is WIFOM or not (for instance if I hadn't said what I said, and the situation rose, some townies could think that it isn't in fact WIFOM and it's fact, and scum could take advantage of this). Plus, it gets some discussion going, and you can see how other players react to it (or don't react at all). Knowing that Blurry actually was the medic makes this a particularly stark breadcrumb from him. Cephiro congrats on picking that up, I should have listened to you. But I want to point out how useless WIFOM discussions are in the early game. You have zero information to work with and so cannot make reasonable assumptions. All WIFOM does at this point is inflate your post count and clog up the thread. It makes it hard to find out anything because people are discussing stuff which has no bearing on the game. Note so far Gonz hasn’t actually targeted anyone for analysis. He writes massive posts with lots of white space but doesn’t really say much. Below is his first attempt at analysis On January 05 2012 04:26 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + I like how Probulous is pressuring people, gives me a town feel. I doubt scum would want to start town discussion as badly as him at this point. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:41 Cephiro wrote: I see what you mean. But regardless of what your reasons are, you need to be available enough so that we can get a read on you. Not being able to get any kind of read on you doesn't help your case at all. But I'll trust you... for now. You know, the problem I have with you for now is that you "trust" a lot of people and think a lot of people are town. Although finding out who's town is benefitial (since then it becomes a process of elimination to find scum), you should specially try to find scum directly. + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 13:48 Liquid`Sheth wrote: Well, more then one. But the one that worries me the most. You better come here soon and explain that. I hate it when some players just post "I'll give my thoughts in a second" and never show up, whether town or scum. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote: haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) Again, this is what I'm talking about. Also, your "joke" doesn't help us at all. If you are town, you just confused the hell out of every one of us, you appeared scummy as hell and we will waste time and effort analyzing this "joke" of yours. If you are scum, then you can just use it as a justification for making a super-scummy-OMGUS first post and get away with it. Or you can use it to confuse town. Doesn't help us at all. And with this "I will analyze more" but not doing anything makes me think you are the 2nd. Fluff and filler. This is not pressure, this is pointing out obvious stuff without following through. I mean "trusting" people is suddenly a scumslip? It isn't aggressive and doesn't force responses. Then comes his vote For now I'll pressure vote Xeris to come here and post his thoughts, but if we have nothing to go on by the time the day ends I'll vote for you Nice way to undermine the value of your vote. Look at the blatant contradiction to what he said on the previous page On January 04 2012 12:33 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 12:23 CookieMaker wrote: We get more information because SOMEONE still gets scum-killed. The hypothetical you in this conversation gets no additional information because they already knew who the town is. @Gonz I am going on the assumption that any inactives will be talking in a hurry before the 24hour mark is up. I'm very interested to see who pipe's up just before the noose gets tied What I gathered from the games I played is, there are always inactive players, and even if you threaten to pressure vote them, or actually pressure vote them, they remain inactive for a time. At least it will guarantee they will not remain inactive the whole day, since if they do they get lynched. + Show Spoiler + Also, if an "inactive" player "talks in a hurry before the 24hour mark is up", why would he do that? That seems like a lurking scum not wanting any pressure on him whatsoever, and rushing in to not being voted, so even that gives us info. The rest of his analysis has him pointing out stuff about Cats and Cookie’s play but again he isn’t aggressive. He doesn’t explain how this makes them mafia or why it isn’t just a newbie mistake. In fact he mentioned Gretorp, Xeris, Cats and Cookie as scummy but voted for Xeris with a “pressure” vote which he himself says does nothing. He then gets into a discussion with Xeris about Random Voting for some reason. There is some back and forth with Cats and stuff about timezones. There are a lot of posts but not much substance. Then straight after my case on Cookie, Cats and Cephiro he post this long thing On January 05 2012 12:15 gonzaw wrote: [/b]+ Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:59 CookieMaker wrote: My turn. This is my first big read. If you disagree with any of it, please raise the issue. Here are my "Strongest" town reads. Each section will have a brief summary and then reads for the player and reads against, with bolded sections of quotes being the evidence I'm presenting. This was originally going to be longer but I'm starving and heading for groceries asap so I just took the best of what I had. For this play the pro-town evidence feels significantly stronger. Cephiro: -This read is on the big assumption that he is not a highly experienced player disguising himself as a rookie. Otherwise: + Show Spoiler + Appeared nervous at the start with the majority of his math, but I'm chalking it up to newbie nerves. He then goes on to be both active and helpful (even though he may not realize it). Many of his posts seem very slightly hesitant, but my guess on that is because he's seen how these games can quickly bandwagon an innocent townie to hell and he's just slightly afraid. My gut feeling on him is by far the strongest, and if I had to pick anyone right now to be pro-town, it's him. Pro-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? In this first post the sentence I like is bolded. Straightforward and to the point, and clearly trying to integrate what he read in other games before this started. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 00:16 Cephiro wrote: Time for a D1 analysis! Obviously I'll leave myself out, but if someone wants to know more about my opinions / ask why I'm in favor of something, please go ahead, discussion is what we need at the moment. Also, my apologies if I'm wrong with someone's gender, I'll make a mean generalization and expect everyone to be a male until noted otherwise. Player List: 1.CookieMaker For now I'm leaning slightly towards town on him, even though he is quite in-favour of the no-lynch possibility. But I think that may be due to the fact that it's his first game, and he may not have read through/followed many mafia games before. So I'm thinking he's rather be safe than sorry, but hopefully he'll realize the amount of information even a possible mislynch will give us, not even mentioning the huge lead we can get if we nail a mafia on D1. His posts could have slightly more actual content, but he's trying so for now he's okay to me. 2.Liquid`Sheth Hasn't posted anything useful aside from welcoming people and pressuring CatsnHats. Sure, pressuring at this point has to be done, but deciding to pick on one person for no real reason at this point and providing no other content? Hopefully he means well and just tries to make sure CatsnHats plays pro-town regardless of being new, I mean, Sheth does have 2 previous games of TL mafia as a base of experience. But for now, I am reading something between neutral or slightly scum. I dare you to prove me your innocence, so I'll be waiting for your morning post. 3.AnxiousHippo Doesn't seem to have any idea of what he should be doing, but I guess it's understandable since it's only his second game. I am hoping to hear more from you, since you haven't posted enough content to make any kind of read on you. Neutral. 5.Tunkeg Good forewarn on not being able to answer at the start of the game. Appareantly was on the winning side in his first game. He seems like an aggressive type of person, wanting to start the accusations and pressure to get some discussion going on. Thinks that D1 lynch is a must, but backs it up with some very good points. Took the first vote playing it relatively safely, voting for a lurker who hasn't posted yet. Clearly wants something to happen, but I am for now unsure if his method will be very successful. Neutral for now, but if you keep the activity up I should be able to get either a slight-town or slight-scum read on you soon. 6.Jitsu Seems to want to actively participate, and most of his posts so far are convincing people to lynch on D1. Hasn't posted any actual content other than that though, so I will still stand on a neutral read. I am hoping to hear more content from you soon, I need to get more reads. 7.Xeris All I can say is, no content, not a good sign. Neutral. 8.Gretorp Same as above, neutral. 9.Gonzaw Answering people's questions, trying to explain some of the basic stuff that should be understood, looks good to me. I like the way he pushed to know more about how I seem to know about the game, so he seems like he isn't taking anything for granted. Also suggesting pressure voting to get things going. I have a slight town-read here. 10.Blurry Seems to be in favour of no-lynching, wanting to stay on the safe side. Hasn't talked about anything but different possibilities if a mafia roleblocker exists. Not useful. (Okay, I'll have to admit that my statistics post at start wasn't necessarily very useful either, but I've been at least trying to post other content as well.) Neutral for now, but if you won't be posting more, I would lean on slightly scum. 11.Probulous Being very active at the start, and the play seems really town-favouring. Constantly asking for opinions and explaining his reasoning. I like his opinion on lynching, definitely wanting to lynch mafia but still keeping in mind the possibility of being careful incase we don't get any reads on D1. Hopefully we will have some scum reads that we can go for so no-lynch won't be necessary. Pressuring the people that should be on according to timezone but haven't posted. I would have to say you are my strongest town-read so far, I want to hear more of your opinions when you're back. 12.CatsnHats Being a new player, it's understandable that he's a bit confused, but you really need to learn that you CAN'T TRUST anyone but yourself. Whatever you think about the situation or someone's reads, say it, don't just agree or disagree randomly. I'm kind of worried of the chance that you are a townie whom the mafia would be able to talk around easily, but I hope you'll prove me wrong. (about the convincing part.) Or you could be mafia that is pretending to be a super-newbie town on his first game... who knows. But you're neutral so far. Start posting your opinions! I'm not going to vote yet myself, but I will join the pressure voting in a few hours if Xeris and Gretorp aren't going to turn up. More of the same. He lays his cards on the table for all to see, and it's doing it for me. My gut tells me that while a mafia player might make the same post to gain trust, they wouldn't attempt to analyze as hard as he has. Rather, they would use it as more of a confusion technique and be even more wishy-washy. When Ceph isn't sure on someone, or has a weak gut feeling, he still says it, rather than trying to present two opinions and fuel a debate. Similarly, when he's sure of himself, he also is very direct in stating his point. Not only that, but he was dead-on when he said my posts thus far didn't have very much useful content. He was right, I had nothing to go on at the time and was still fishing. I have bolded sections in the above quote that reflect what I like about this. Even though his EBWOP was slightly apologetic, it had a very natural feel to me, out of genuine concern rather than fear. Maybe I'm reading too far into this, but the apology might be a gut reaction to himself having to read so much (a realization I also had as a first-time player). + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. This recent post is another goodie IMO. Again very direct and unafraid of his position and stance on strategy, as well as attempting to offer genuine contribution. I've again bolded what he says that really ring a green bell with me. His consistency shines through. [bAnti-town evidence: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 04:41 Cephiro wrote: Okay, I'll admit that my statistical starting post maybe wasn't the best opening post ever, but at least I tried, unlike many others... can't blame me for being excited and trying to contribute! To be honest, I don't understand your claim about me being wishy-washy at the start, when I was clearly trying to push for some points. For example: On the other hand when I read your posts, I see almost nothing useful. You're trying to pressure CatsnHats, and trying to clarify some acronyms and such on D1. You're not posting any of your reads. And now you asked CatsnHats about his opinion on Gretorp when he already posted about it... you're giving surprisingly much attention to him to start the game with in my opinion. I'm pointing my FoS at you. I'll have my eyes on you Sheth. I'm not going to accuse you of being scum yet, but I suggest that you all watch Sheth's posts carefully. You'll have to try harder than that to convince me. Really this is more town-evidence IMO, but some might say that the speed with which he flipped the accusation around makes it suspicious. I tend to think that it's just a bit of an instinctive OMGUS, otherwise he handled the pressure really well and without any trace of guilt. As well, I kinda like his read on Sheth and the way he's now using Sheth's own tactic against him :D -Slightly Bandwagon-ish: He is slightly following the bandwgon on the Xeris train, but I don't blame him at all here because I'm of the same mind. On the whole his contribution has really stuck out to me as useful (or trying to be) rather than "active filler". This is one of the few reads that I'm much more sure of. If there is a medic in this game, my recommendation would be on his protection because I think he will be one of the standards around which the town needs to rally. Gonna grab food, and compile more reads, and tonight I'm gonna hit y'all with some knowledge. Current Opinion: Very Pro-Town So, you made a great analysis of why a player is town. Is this game about finding townies? No. I already said this to Cephiro, our priority is not finding townies. Your priority is not posting walls of text of who you find townie. Your priority is finding scum. Now, apparently you forgot about that part. + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:13 CookieMaker wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:58 AnxiousHippo wrote: This is one of the worst posts so far. Cookiemaker points out that Probulous leaves right after making accusations, and later says that he's about to go to sleep too. He also talks vaguely about how people are trusting eachother but so far it's only been cephiro and catsnhats, there's barely any trust from everyone else. He then uses a fancy metaphor which always annoys me, like they're trying to sound better. Then he posts some more useless metaphorical stuff saying he wants people to be a bit more active. and then a poem. cookiemaker clarify what players seem to be trusting eachother sheth tell us what posts are bothering you Also, where did blurry go? @AH The players who I saw as "trusting" each other were Sheth, Probu, and Gonz, who seemed to be employing the similar tactic of applying "harmless" pressure to see what the responses would be. I was going to just come out and say it, but I didn't want to players under fire to be let off that easy, so instead I wrote the cute little Haiku  Now really going for food, stay tuned for more action. What? If I pressure people the same way as another player, I trust him? I don't think that makes much sense. Also, I don't really "trust" people in mafia games. I either think they are town, scum, or I'm indecisive. Even if they are town, I may still not trust them. For instance, I may not trust their reads. I believe Probu to be town for instance (for now, he's been absent for some time and I find that worrysome), but even if that's the case I don't really trust him for now. If he finds some scum, then maybe I will. Also, you never explained that "I will vote for the one that has less votes" part, it seems you are trying to ignore that we pointed it out. I think you are scum bro.+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 07:14 Cephiro wrote: Hello again everyone! Got caught up watching a good movie, but going to catch up on mafia now: I see your point. I consider that you need to be able to trust some people to some extent in this game, and I am trying to find players which I can be fairly sure of to be townies. That does not mean I will analyze them any less though, I'm not taking anyone for granted neither am I setting anything in stone. I think that the first 24-hours of D1 in this game are quite hard to start pointing scum fingers at someone, but I assure you that whenever my scum sensor alerts, I'll let you all know. So I do get your point about finding scum directly, but I don't want to negate trying to find out whom are town. In my opinion, both is better than just the other. About Gretorp, I am certainly not liking his play so far. He has only posted twice, which of one was appareantly a joke, and the other being an explanation of the first message. The fact that he has posted but still hasn't said anything with content feels suspicious to me. What do you others think? Random Lynching is a retarded idea in my opinion, (since someone brought it up, I'll have my say in this as well.) because we still have more than a whole day on us to make reads, and since we don't have a mayor in this game, we can't use it in the way you were theorycrafting either. I still stand by what I said at start, I want us to be able to get enough reads on people to lynch a scum on day 1. Jitsu's post pretty much sums up my opinion. I don't approve Xeris's play at all so far, all he has is two posts talking about the different ways of lynching, he hasn't provided any opinions about anyone, nor asked anyone else about their reads. Not very pro-town in my opinion. If he isn't going to step up soon, I am probably going to pressure vote for either him or Gretorp. My timezone is GMT +2, so it's around 15 minutes past midnight at the time of this post. I will probably stay up for at least 2 more hours. @Jitsu: I'm actually starting to be really suspicious of him at the moment. He had a very active start, even though his content was somewhat fluffy. I've changed my opinion about him since my earlier post, partly due to many people providing good reasoning about his play so far. I am actually wondering a bit as he hasn't said anything since yesterday's start, so I'm interested to hear if he has some actual opinions or reads to give when he comes back. Yes that's fine, let's just hope you keep your word that you'll try and find scum though. I'm sure other players will remind you that though. Also, where the hell is Xeris? He ignores my vote and posts completely, then disappears? Wtf? *sigh* this won't get us anywhere. Probu is right about the inactives though, unless we install a "lynch lurkers" policy lynch (or should have installed it long ago), lynching them will not give us that much info, and if they don't post more we can't really get any good reads on them. The thing is that other than the threat of a lynch, how do you pressure lurkers/inactives into posting? If we just let them pass then they could be inactive the whole game or as long as they want. If they are scum they can just cruise through the game. *sigh* I'll just not pay attention to it for now then, unless they post, which I want them to. I suppose this applies to Gretorp too, even though he posted more (but more nonsensical things). ##unvote: Xeris ##vote: CookieMaker You know what Probulous? You remind me of how I see those mafia vets here play. You know, post images that follow giant walls of text, analyzing "behaviours" and such. Now, although I feel you are town, I mostly feel you are a good player, and a dangerous one at that. If you end up being scum I'm sure you will fuck us up. So I urge other players to take a good look at Probu, even if they think he's town, just in case. Also Probulous, something I want to clear: + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 10:14 Probulous wrote: Your support of discussing WIFOM scenarios was particularly bad. It just distracts town and adds nothing to finding scum. In UG I get shit from everybody because of this, and everybody thinks I'm mafia every game because of it (I was town every time). Hell, I'm the "WIFOM king" or something there supposedely I still stand by what I said. Imagine someone claims RBed or something on Day 4 or something, would you want people discussing WIFOM there? Even worse, would you want townies thinking there isn't any WIFOM involved? For instance, take that "If someone claims RBed, then there is a RBer" statement someone said before. If I hadn't mentioned that it's WIFOM, then townies may have believed it as true, and if scum fake-claimed RBer if there are 3 goons, we could be fucked. It's better to mention these scenarios as soon as possible when it doesn't have the chance of derailing any discussions, so townies know about it later. Also, not to be nitpicky here or anything but + Show Spoiler + Mafia would not be so stupid as to not post at all and even then we only have at most three inactives (Blurry, Gretorp, Xeris). Are people seriously suggesting that mafia is just not posting? Ehmm, isn't that WIFOM? Also agree that Cephiro isn't actually doing that much in terms of actually contributing, just posting a lot of "town reads" and such, but I already said this to Sheth, I don't actually know if the whole "contributing without contributing" thing that's going on here can apply to newbies who haven't played the game before. Specially with someone as excited to post as Cephiro, he may just post whatever he thinks, even though it may be unnecessary filler or such. I may be wrong though, but I won't take that into account for now. Note that he had mentioned Cookie’s stuff earlier but never called him out on it. Then my case comes up and bam he is scum. His reasoning is that Cookie made a big “read” on who is town? As he says your role is to find scum, well Gonz at this point you had not found anyone except Xeris. A lurker who hadn’t posted anything of note. He then gets on Cookie’s case because Cookie trusts people. How are these two things, finding townies and trusting people, a mafia trait? Sure they are not the best townie play but they are hardly pushing a scum agenda. They are pushing for a miss-lynch. The rest of the post doesn’t tell us anything and an EBWOP which is also massive. However this is interesting. On January 05 2012 12:30 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + EBWOP2: Shit I feel so stupid, I had another tab opened with the response and didn't see it >_> + Show Spoiler + On January 05 2012 08:51 Blurry wrote: Part 2: (taking a long time to write this) I know I originally wanted to not lynch somebody but the benefits of information make it a more appealing option and I feel like we have some solid candidates 7: Xeris Has contributed absolutely nothing other than his stance against a lynch today. No analysis or contribution. Leaning on Scum. 8: Gretorp Has also not contributed anything + no stance on any issue presented. Unless he posts something meaningful in the next day he will get my vote. Leaning heavily on scum. 9: Gonzaw Likes to pressure people and prod them for feedback. Also posted his thoughts and took a clear stance on issues. Leaning on town. 10: Me I haven't contributed much other than the Roleblocker thing but I will stand by that. If someone gets role blocked they should immediately say it. The more information the better, and it would be risky for a mafia to claim being role blocked if it gets revealed that there really isn't he is automatically implicated. So guys, if you get role blocked: make sure you tell us. 11: Probulous Another discussion leader. Has been active in contributing and putting pressure on people (catsnhats). Leaning on town for him. 12: CatsNHats Although he may have flip flopped positions early in the game I still feel like he is town as he has not shied away from speaking his mind on who he thinks may be scum. We should pressure him but my stance on him is neutral. Ugh... I don't feel like I added too much with that so I'll go back over everything and post my overall feeling for the game so far. Hmm, I find it interesting how you use the same format Cephiro did for posting your analisis. Did you do that on purpose or is it a coincidence? Also, who are those "solid candidates" you speak of? If you had to lynch only one of them now, who would it be? Gretorp? Does the new events change your opinion or not? Also: Isn't this kind of obvious? Of course if a townie is RBed he should claim, why did you feel the need to state so? He calls out Blurry for standing by his insistence that people claim when they are roleblocked, saying it should be obvious. This is a blatant contradiction from his earlier stance on the issue. Some more WIFOM stuff, a discussion about Smurfs and some back and forth with me about what a lynch says about someone. Here is an interesting post. On January 05 2012 14:57 gonzaw wrote: EBWOP: If someone is RBed (again, take the WIFOM I mentioned earlier into account), then if YOU are the DT, YOU know there's a medic, since the only possible setup with both a RBer AND a DT is the 1st one (which coincidentally also has a Medic). He says "Then it means we have a medic who can save you if you come out". He's clearly speaking to the DT here. I thought that was pretty apparent. Also, I suggest everybody keeps a notepad or something open with all the votes/suspicions/important events/thoughts and stuff. I know I do, and it will come very handy to you guys. Also, if you can't reread the thread, or do a simple CTRL+F with "##" search to figure out the vote tally, then it means you aren't really putting that much effort into the game (which is odd from you, so I guess you are just being lazy or something now, or trying to gauge someone's reaction or something). Note that Sheth’s point is that if someone claims a roleblock, then there is likely to be a medic or DT. Mafia have not roleblocked all game, I believe this was their plan from the start. Hence why Gonz points outs the WIFOM to Blurry and why Sheth was so keen to talk about roleblocking and blue roles. In particular the DT. Gonz defends him here as talking to the DT. This post was scummy as hell to me because there was no reason for Sheth to be talking about the DT. We had decided that before, but instead he tries to talk directly to them giving them misinformation. He says that if there is a roleblock then the DT knows there is a medic. Well as per previous discussions this is all WIFOM because scum could claim a roleblock. Gonz was the one to point that out but here he defends Sheth. I misread Sheth’s post but upon rereading it looks worse. The fact that Gonz was so quick to defend him makes him scum in my eyes. Gonz doesn’t really change his style for the rest of the game. He writes these massive posts with very little content. Voting analysis Gonz first vote for a AKCT was because Cookie was scum. His reasons as pointed out were that Cookie was finding townies and trusted people. He never presented an updated case on Cookie. He called him out on small things but never presented a case that shows the scum agenda behind Cookie’s actions. His response on when Cookie flipped town ”Hmmm...” Such surprise! He then immediately jump onto Blurry. Now think for a second, we just lynched someone who was obvious a newb town. We lynched him because his play was wishy-washy and it made him look like scum. So what does Gonz do, he jumps on a new candidate which looks exactly like AKCT. His case on Blurry is so full of holes. On January 06 2012 11:41 gonzaw wrote: Okay, there are 2 basic reasons for voting Tea (or AKCT, whatever): 1-For previous reasons of certain players 2-A bandwagon vote to avoid a no-lynch. Players in the 1st category would include: Me, Tunkmeg, Blurry Players in the 2nd category would include: CatsHats, Sheth, Prob, Jitsu, Cephiro, Hippo *sigh*, not really much to go on on that 2nd category, almost everybody reasoned their vote for Tea to avoid the no-lynch. However, some of the players in the 2nd one did FoS him before. Tunkmeg was the first one to FoS him (I think), but he stated his reasons, and were actually good ones, so quoting him or discussing it any further wouldn't do us much good. About Blurry though: Here he just used Hippo's point to FoS him. Doesn't seem like he put too much effort in analyzing him. Again he's using other people's analysis as well (Prob pointed that out Cookie's sheeping of Jitsu first).. At least Tunkmeg came up with points of his own to FoS Cookie, Blurry seems to regurgitate things already said. Something I don't like here, same as Xeris, Cats, etc. DON'T.APOLOGIZE.FOR.NOTHING Need I remind you to read Ver's Guide, were supposedely the Mider guy was obvious mafia because of his constant apologizing and undermining himself? I already stated my opinion on this subject though (when I responded to Xeris). I pointed out that you don't need to assume unnecessary things. This is not actual WIFOM, but it's a false statement ragarding a WIFOM scenario, which is the same if not worse than the WIFOM itself (but yeah, we still all call it WIFOM nevertheless). You also have a very short filter (post more), and I don't like that "I will emulate other players" attitude: In fact, you didn't respond to me when I pointed that out either. I don't really have a red read on him yet, since he posted way too little. But I want him pressured next day, along Xeris and Gretorp. His suspicions are based on actions which were identical to Cookies. Then he gets into a huge argument with Tunk about stupid stuff which I still don’t understand. Tunk rightly points out that Gonz is being distracting. I stupidly assume mafia would not put themselves in the spotlight like this by arguing with their night kill right before the day post. It is bad WIFOM and I shouldn’t have done that. Again it looks like Gonz is being an aggressive poster trying to catch people but in reality he pulls Tunk up on stupid stuff. It was clear that Tunk was town the same for Jitsu. But earlier he called Jitsu out for supposedly claiming to be scum. This whole episode just reeks of looking like contributing without contributing. He puts a placeholder vote on Sheth. On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 10:19 Probulous wrote: Gonz man, what the hell is this shit? You call others out for wishy-washy play but then post this contortion. You think my case makes sense but Sheth's response will tell you more? If the case is solid, nothing Sheth says should change your mind. He can always cast doubt on what I have written. I could forgive you for that, Ceph's defense for example shows what happens when a townie gets a case brought against him. But what is the null read (until now at least)  Is he null or not? You either are waiting for more info (null case) or you think he is mafia (until now case). How can you have both positions in the same sentence?Would you be willing to lynch Sheth? ?? I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him. You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time. I don't get how that could be misinterpreted. And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written. However I won't be around to see it. I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time. I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though. So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth. ##Vote: Liquid`Sheth Whilst at the same time calling out Blurry on his WIFOM. The irony that Gonz is apparently the king of WIFOM but he finds Blurry’s WIFOM a scum tell? Then comes his massive rant after Jitsu’s mentions him before his death. On January 10 2012 11:36 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler + FUUUUUUUUUU... Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread. I'll respond as I see fit though. Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote: I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? ...WTF is this WIFOM shit? Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis. And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez... + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get? Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them. I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again. + Show Spoiler + On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote: I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up. For fucks sake. I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do? I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!! I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote: Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Wtf is this? So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts? You say you are going by "your gut"? Wtf? Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter. I'll check the Cat situation too. Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist. Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town. This doesn’t say anything except more crap about Blurry. As far I can tell he has no case against Blurry. Everything used to describe Blurry’s play could be used to describe Cats’ play. Hel Gonz was the king of WIFOM and he hasn’t explained how WIFOM at this point of the game is bad. It is certainly better now than in the early days. At least now we have some information to go off. Then comes his vote for Blurry which I have responded to. The only thing that is of note is that Blurry hardly corresponded with Sheth. Of course he hardly corresponded with anyone so that doesn’t really mean anything. But Gonz goes balls to wall on Blurry. I point out that Blurry would have had to bus Sheth very early for his case to make sense and given Blurry’s play it seems to sophisticated. Of course Gonz points out that the plan is pretty simple. He knows because that is exactly what he did. Blurry had no shown high quality play all game. He hadn’t provided any reads and was waffling a lot, Gonz however has shown he is willing to make risky decisions. He is willing to put himself out there. Thus I think it highly likely he would do something like bus Sheth. Especially since he was already seen as town. He then attacks me for defending Blurry. I stupidly (sorry Blurry I was bad yesterday) back down. If I believe someone is town then I should defend them. Hell if you think someone is mafia you should attack but let others counter your arguments. Only mafia know for sure if someone is town. Gonz’s insistence that Blurry defend himself only makes sense from a mafia point of view. A town’s person wants to know where he is wrong. He cannot be certain, but Gonz doesn’t want counter arguments. Thoughts people? | ||
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On January 12 2012 13:54 Paperscraps wrote: Just got back from school. Wow oh wow at what happened. Dang I wish Blurry didn't make a huge blunder like that. Town is in bad shape. Seems like Cats and Prob or Gonz are mafia. Will be interesting to see who they target tonight. If Prob dies, then it is Cats and Gonz If Gonz dies, then it is Cats and Prob If I die, which I won't think will happen due to people being suspicious of me, then I don't know who the last mafia is. You seem pretty sure on surviving the night. You made it pretty clear that Cats, myself and Gonz are going to have to do some serious explaining but suddenly we are the night targets? Surely, surely it makes more sense for mafia to kill of the ones that are clearly town. The ones under suspicion have a chance at being lynched. | ||
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Here is my issue people. I don't believe Cats is scum and neither is BK. I am not scum either. That means two scum in either Gonzaw, Paperscraps or Cephiro. How do I choose between Gonz and Cephiro? Gonz has been aggressive and forthright. He has pointed out issues with people's play however the only case he really pushed was Blurry's. Cephiro started badly but nailed Sheth. Since then he has been active and provided some pretty good cases. His finding of Blurry's breadcrumbs being one example. Gonz attitude is disruptive to town and has been since he went after Tunk. He reaction to Jitsu's comments was of useless. Of course you are going to be upset but as I pointed out that doesn't help town. Yet he continues to be be disruptive. His case presented today is alright. Gonz if you think I am scum come out and say it, posting a case like that makes me look bad but allows you to back out. The fact is at this point in time you have to make assumptions on who is town because otherwise scum win. We can't have everybody suspicious of everybody, that is fertile ground for a miss-lynch. Yes re-read people's filters but take a stand on who you think is scum or town. Ceph, where you at? | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:10 Cephiro wrote: Well hell, I was expecting something to happen once we get closer to the daypost, but this is interesting. Probu accusing Gonzaw with a huge post and vice versa. (Even though Gonzaw is also pointing at Paperscraps.) This certainly isn't making my analysis any easier... but whatever happens during the night should tell quite a lot. Ceph, work backwards. Who do you think is town? A crucial point is Cats, do you think a Cats, Paperscraps team is likely? Then once you have that, it comes down to making a decision on who you think is the scummiest of the remainder. I still think you could be scum. You didn't exactly nail anyone to the wall yesterday and haven't presented your thoughts yet. The only thing really going in my favour is that I have been very open with you guys. I pushed Sheth's lynch and have been very open with my reads. I was the first to really go after anyone and I have changed my reads when new info comes to light. | ||
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Why? See I don't understand this. If we are scummy as hell then surely it makes sense for us to be kept alive? That way one of us can be up for the lynch tomorrow. I would be more worried about yourself or BK (probably BK most of all). Think of it from a mafia point of view, confusion is what leads to a miss-lynch. What shot puts town in the biggest state of chaos? Well one where we gain no information, hence BK stay indoors. | ||
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On January 13 2012 09:39 Cephiro wrote: EBWOP: This is true, but I have my reasons for not doing that. And in all honesty, yesterday was really confusing. You can't expect me to nail someone to the wall every day. I did pressure you and Cats though, for a reason. The way you pushed for Blurry's lynch after Gonzaw's post didn't exactly go that well did it? Unless it's what you wanted... Yeah I did bad but at least I took a stance. If I get lynched for that, so be it. As you say I had my reasons. I was confused just like everyone else but I went with what made sense to me. I was wrong but that ok, I'm allowed to be wrong. Being wrong means I stood up for what I felt was the right thing to do, unlike others who just sheep. You did really well in the short time we had. I stupidly dismissed your breadcrumb evidence and that is why you are on my town list. I said I was playing badly yesterday and it was clearly true. Blurry did us no favours by claiming when he did but I made the situation worse. It's alright though, we will lynch scum today and then finish them off tomorrow. | ||
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When Blurry claimed I did not believe that scum had a role-blocker. Why would they withhold their one weapon that hides information from us? For two nights no less. Especially after Sheth died. So I figured Blurry must be lying. Hence I pushed for his lynch. Then I ran the scenario through my head that mafia had kept their role-blocker secret all game and Blurry was a medic. Well with his claim so close to deadline and Gonz pushing for his lynch it would make sense for mafia to roleblock him and shoot me. That way Blurry looks scummy as hell and would probably get lynched. So either way we lose myself and Blurry. In addition, we could have miss-lynched yesterday which would mean a Blurry miss-lynch would win the game for mafia. If Blurry was a medic I would come out looking scummy as hell if I pushed for his lynch, hopefully that would save me from a nightkill. My reads have been Sheth for the first night because of Cephiro’s post  My read the second night was Hippo/Bk. This was because I wanted to remove one of the lurkers from my list. Hippo was looking scummy and I couldn’t make up my mind, hence the read. Bk is town. The problem is that we were one miss-lynch away yesterday and we are still one miss-lynch away from losing. I was hoping my gamble would save me tonight so I could get a read on Gonz. Of course it is likely that I have been roleblocked if not shot but there is a small possibility that they don’t think I am the DT. Plus leaving me alive for so long makes me look really scummy. I have not investigated Cats but don't feel he is mafia based on his play. That leaves two mafia in
If I survive we can discuss this later. If not, good luck guys and I wish town the best!  | ||
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It doesn't help us out at all. It just makes it hard to read what you are trying to say. | ||
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So before I pass on the great beyond known as the Observer QT, Cats if you are town I want to congratulate you and really picking up your play. You would the award for most improved in my eyes. | ||
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On January 05 2012 14:09 Probulous wrote: Can we try to agree on something :p This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden. On January 05 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote: On the topic of DTs, medics and the such. I stand by what I wrote in my analysis of both Cookie and Cephiro, I don't want to discuss them. My personel preference is for blues to stay hidden and do their own thing. I agree that a medic should obviously choose a dangerous townie (dangerous from a mafia POV), but again we don't need to discuss this. This is the last thing I will say about blue roles. On January 05 2012 14:19 Probulous wrote: *Personal. I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame  For those interested. This was when Sheth was going on about the DT. | ||
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Comparing Cats, Paperscraps, Blurry and Hippo and they look very similar. Obviously there is a scum in there somewhere but Cats did enough to redeem himself in my eyes. So if he scum, then well played. | ||
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