EPTYour analysis sucks balls
Purgatory Mafia - Page 63
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
Your analysis sucks balls | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On January 11 2012 02:43 layabout wrote: I like the way you criticise a simplification of my point and then say my point in another form. I never said we ask him, so that is not a valid criticism of my criticism. If we want to analyse the plan we need to do the following: We need to look a the player and look at what he is saying. We need to make a judgements on:
we can also look at possible motivations for suggesting the plan, and how these might change with different alignments etc... We have to look at a lot of different things in order to decide upon whether his plan makes him more likely to be scum. jumping from to is logically unsound. What is more important is whether RoL beleived it was anti-town when he suggested it (if he didn't then it is null). If you think he did believe it was anti-town we then have to look at his actions more closely to find evidence to support that ideas and ways in which RoL tries to push an anti-town plan. The judgements that i have made about his plan (i haven't shared them) have lead me to the conclusion that is is not scummy. +i might post about risk later or tomorrow if i feel like it On January 10 2012 06:57 layabout wrote: I think you missed out one of the major crticisms of the plan ... | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
| ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
| ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Does this accurately represent your views? Please elaborate if this is not the case. | ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
You also have not sufficiently shown how his plan is anti town. Before RoL suggested his plan I: -Was suspicious of him for not doing anything to help day 1 -.and i felt that his "voting mistake" and support of the erandor lynch after it had been decided were not things that were in his favour. -I was enjoying the game and i did not really wish to adapt a plan that could radically change the way the game was playing out, in a negative way. The first time I read though -I did not have a particularly open mind when i read through his post. -I thought it would take the fun out of the setup -I thought it was a bad plan and that it was anti-town and that by trying to push it RoL was trying to mislead and hurt town. -I immediately began to criticise it and voiced my initial concerns -I also thought back to the things syllogism said to me when he was my coach in sudent mafia (i posted the relevant bit) When i joined that game a lot had happened. I caught one scum and i was trying to find the other. My mindset was very much a case of, he has said X in this post this specific thing could be scummy IF... . I was looking for small things and trying to make them scummy rather than taking an objective approach and using processes such as elimination or trying to look at general behavioural patterns. I had a hard time discriminating between bad, anti-town and scummy Syllogisms responses essentially changed my approach I had been looking for reasons that would people scum, i was forcing my analysis. But then i realised that Tunkeg's proposing his anti-town plan was not a scummy action and his subsequent behaviour seemed green. I then turned my full attention back to xtfftc and velinath and BH voted him with me and BL the goon surrendered and we won and there was hip hop. -I decided to reread, ask for an instance of RoL suggesting a plan in the past, i tried to ask more pertinent questions and i looked closely at what RoL was saying in response to the thread. -I became increasingly convinced that the plan might work and that it could actually have a good outcome. -Then as i was brushing my teeth, i thought of a way for scum to "break" the plan -I tried to articulate this and posted it. -I also do not believe that RoL has acted in a way that is scummy, based on what i have read. So, i opposed it at first, I tried to look at his posts from an objective standpoint, it made more sense, i thought of a criticism that was strong and made it. I feel like you had made your mind up before you began to analyse what RoL was doing and that you did not really explore his plan or his actions enough to conclude that he is scum. You definately have not done enough to justify | ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
| ||
|
Tyrran
France777 Posts
On January 11 2012 03:38 Dirkzor wrote: Tyrran is the one I want to lynch most at the moment. I think he is on palmars team due to this: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2012 23:32 Tyrran wrote: I dunno what's going on between these two, but we should just ignore this for now. Was trying to avoid the same shitstorm that happenned day 1, when a seemingly harmless claim led us to lynch 2 blue on day 1. This is only my second game here, I wanted it to go off a better start than day 1. On January 06 2012 19:04 Tyrran wrote: I disagree with you here. From the few games I've read Palmar seems to be a efficient scum hunter.Bussing Palmar is therefore an good scum strat. Almost EVERY SINGLE one of Jackal post were attacking palmar. And he NEVER had more than 1 line of justification. He did not even refer to MrWiggles case. That is scummy play for me. Also note that as there is 2 scum faction, they can perfectly both be scum, one angel and one demon. I'll be looking at both of them today. Palmar need to step up his game, and Jackal needs to start become useful. He is defending palmar when there is no real reason to defend him. The first post compares a post pre-game to a post made in-game. In both posts he defends Palmar without really appearing to defend him. I'm attacking Jackal on his over agression, which i still dont like (see my post earlier). I'm also attacking out for attacking you the same way. He later changes his opinion on palmar. and in the same post call jackal scum and votes for erandorr Notice how i also call palmar and Erandorr scum. Voting for Erandorr was the obvious thing to do here since we were obviously not going to lynch palmar nor Jackal. Combine this with palmars change of opinion on Wiggles a few hours earlier it appears suspicious. I don't think its unlikely that demonteam realized that palmar will get lynched/killed at some point soon. Palmar gives up lynching wiggles (no support at that time) and his teammates start bussing him. So everyone that voted vor Erandorr and said palmar was likely scum is Demon ? That's only like half the players of this game. In the end I'll just quote how Tyrran have taken no stance on anybody he have written a case on. Note: These quotes are cut, but they are all the last part of Posts by Tyrran. I've said it several time now, I'm mostly suspicious about Cwave, on which i made a case earlier, and i spend several post trying to pressure him, and Risk.nuke, which i explained when Syllo asked me to give my thougth on him. I've also explained day 1, that I'm not a fan of casting votes early, which creates the risk of scum hammering someone, ending the day and reducing the discution time we have. So rigth now, the two most popular cases are risk.nuke and RoL. If we rephrase the main critisism against him, it can be summarized by : * He is inactive * He pushed for a bad plan. I dont think he realized his plan was bad. A scum woudnt have insisted as much when it became clear that it was not going to be adopted by town. His action are more like the one of some people that had worked hard on a plan, and was too obsessed with it that he couldnt see its flaws. I also agree with layabout that his plan was not blatantly anti town (see post above mine). So as you ask me to take a stance, I will be voting for Risk.nuke. At this point he is more likely to flip scum than Cwave IHMO. I'm waiting for tomorrow to ensure we enjoy another 24 hour of discussions. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Side note: Anyone who's like "quick let's hammer risk.nuke without a full discussion" is either a fool or a knave. The more discussion people post before a flip, the more knowledge we gain after the flip. | ||
|
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
| ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On December 28 2011 15:42 ZBot wrote: risk.nuke (5): | ||
|
Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On January 11 2012 08:05 Mr. Wiggles wrote: RoL, who do you want to lynch, why? I'd assume risk.nuke since his vote is on him. I'm leaving my vote on diz for the moment because he is apparently not going to get hammered anytime soon. Also because he's scum. We have 5 scum left. More than enough to kill either risk or RoL atm. As that hasn't happened yet it's possible we have 1 from each team hanging there. I'm leaving for the evening so please refrain from doing anything stupid for the next couple of hours. Like a massive vote switch. Unless you all want to switch to diz cause like he is scum and all. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 11 2012 08:09 Blazinghand wrote: Looks like he wants to lynch risk.nuke, probably because he's trying to keep a non-him wagon rolling. Alright guy who insists on interpreting every single thing I do as scum. Let's look at it this way. I know I am town, I can be 100% certain of that. I don't know risk.nukes alignment, but I can be sure it is less than 100% likely because I am not risk.nuke. Why would I ever support my own lynch, or not support the opposing lynch if I know for certain that I am a bad lynch? Combine that with Risk.nuke's shitty Seer comment and you have my vote on him. | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On January 11 2012 08:55 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright guy who insists on interpreting every single thing I do as scum. Let's look at it this way. I know I am town, I can be 100% certain of that. I don't know risk.nukes alignment, but I can be sure it is less than 100% likely because I am not risk.nuke. Why would I ever support my own lynch, or not support the opposing lynch if I know for certain that I am a bad lynch? Combine that with Risk.nuke's shitty Seer comment and you have my vote on him. Yeah I guess that's fair, a hypothetical town version of RoL would do the same thing. I retract that point. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 11 2012 02:22 Dirkzor wrote: FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK I had a really long post about RoL, Tyrran and Risk, then i closed the tab it was in on mistake =/. I don't want to write it again now. The short version. RoL is a bad lynch, Risk is a good lynch, Tyrran is the best lynch. I'm going to eat now and then i'll try to rewrite it. @Lay want me to answer your antitown behaviour case? Just seems like we moved on to someelse and an answer to that would disrupt this discussion. I will if you, or others, want me to. I had this happen more than once before. If you are every doing something truly massive it can be more worth it to write it in word or something then copy and paste it into a post and hit preview. It fucking sucks rewriting 20+ minutes of analysis. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 10 2012 06:46 Blazinghand wrote: Some people being dumb about the acolyte. Which posts are he talking about? certainly not this one: [spoiler] I responded to this in full in a previous post when I got home, but I suppose I can try to clarify this again. The Angels aren't immune to blues. No scum team is immune to confirmed townies. But to further elaborate, 3 roles threaten scum just as 3 threaten the Demons. The Demon Hunter makes a hit, if his hit fails he knows one of two things happened. His target was in Purgatory which is publicly announced, or his target was an Angel. This means when targeting it acts as a kill/check depending if they are an Angel/Demon. How you can't see Purgatory affecting Angel powers is beyond me, but I suppose as part of my plan it's used defensively to conserve the voting block. So we can pretend that doesn't count, although its more the threat of purgatory in the blue circle that should scare away the Angels KP I will concede slightly on that point. Lastly the only one you cared to note, the Seer or whoever checks Angels. I don't need to explain this at all. He then assumes a bad unlikely scenario, that a mass RC is forced from our blues for a counterclaim. Our demon hunter stays alive because he's in purgatory, fine we get an extra vote that's safe. The demons are still facing the role checking threat from the other blue in this worst case scenario. Constantly RBing the Demon Hunter could also be bad though because if none of them are suspect chances are hes going to kill townies. But either way, this is talking the worst case scenario which involves the demons counter claiming and losing a member anyway. Assuming they do it to RB the demon Hunter and force a claim they are still sacrificing the Twister or Concealer which are both really strong roles. I obviously couldn't know this at the time and it's not a valid defense, but the Demons now no longer have the Transporter so this can't even work and they can't counterclaim in their current position. If we no lynch or the Demons don't conceal the lynch then my plan has just become that much more viable, but I digress. Your plan gives HUGE information to both scum faction, and town actually gains very little from it. I dont like it. I think it favors Demons way too much ( because they can protect themself way more easely using their power knowing who the blues are), it also helps angels a bit ( they can kill the seer, they do not risk killing the demon hunter by mistake). But town is definitively the big loser in your plan. Now tyrran, he is not my boy, and he's played like dick this game, but the man has a point. Whether he's an Angel or Demon that doesn't like this plan, or a town player who's figured out that it's like totes anti-town, he laid out legitimate arguments and RoL just ignored them. These aren't misunderstandings of the acolyte's powers-- this is legitimate criticism. He never elaborated here on how their defense powers protect the Demons, but it really doesn't. He ignores voting block, zero chance of hitting blues after the claim is complete, or a lower player pool to choose scum from. So in short, his complaints were minor at best. So a couple clarifications here, but basically RoL is willing to give up the Blue roles in return for some confirmed voting power. As explained, our blues roles are relatively weak. Confirmed townies are a way stronger asset. Once again, now that a Purgatory threat has left the game its doubled edged, one less purgatory for the Angels to avoid, but also increases potential blue efficiency. The idea that fake claim is the problem here is, well, a problem. Blues just shouldn't claim ._. He makes some good points as to why this is bad for angels, but it continues to look like this plan just helps demon. When I am saying why the plan is bad for Angels its becuase that is what I am being questioned on. Personally when I thought about the plan and was considering implications I thought it screwed both factions, but screwed the Demons a fair bit more because it focuses Angel KP toward them more, while their only real choice is hope their corruption can give them an edge, but every town member they corrupt essentially becomes confirmed. They would have to KNOW someone was going to die, and somehow be willing to sacrifice them. This is stupid, scum teams especially in small numbers will try to play conservative, especially on TL, and more so when they ALL have power roles. We also lose the anonymity withing the blues that your plan relies on to be safe. True, we can do a slow reveal though, for example force the seer/channeler to claim and see which CC happens first. On top of this, this scenario is ignoring just how detrimental is is for either scum faction to fake claim which hurts them even if it hurts our blues a little bit. I believe if they choose to use a CC strategy it works to our benefit in the long run. The issue here is that this helps the demons find the blue that threatens them, the demon hunter, while upping the ante on the angels. It's a good for demons, bad for angels sort of thing. I explained how this is a fallacy already, and how there is equal threat from power roles to both Demons and Angels, the Angel threat is slightly more indirect. Corrupting town (Demons only chance at victory) also tightens the noose around their neck by confirming each corrupted townie. Hypothetically on D5 we could have corrupted players claim which would narrow the pool further. There only chance to kind of work it is to not corrupt one day and use it to try to confirm themselves, which is, once again, a double edged sword. It enhances analysis, while giving a tactical advantage of controlling the flower of the game. I don't see why you are against two pronged rape, but whatever. Remember that this point RoL doesn't know Palmar is gonna get shot and flip scum, even though Palmar is likely D2 lynch-- he would have been a fine sacrifice for the demon/angel team, since he's dead anyways, to force claims. I would say that there is an extremely low chance of Palmar getting D2'd. Palmar is good and townies hate lynching other beneficial townies, especially if its only a *MIGHT* on them being scum. Palmar as a good player in a two faction game would serve as a scum hunting threat against the other faction. He would also get support from his scum team against his lynch should he need it, as well as townies who don't want to kill a perceived "good" player. In short, you are wrong and a CC strategy is bad to begin with. Lastly, as the tide turns against him: Zeph knows what's up. RoL doesn't actually leave, then proceeds to bail afterwards, saying nothing and disappearing into the mist whence he came. RoL has made no contributions and pushed a pro-scum plan. He even got a couple of morons to claim vt ._. He's lurking, and was hustling us pretty hard D1. I think he's a great D2 lynch. He's never been helpful and he has actively tried to hurt us. ##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD You are insane. I was getting dressed and went out after F5ing the thread. Sorry I wasn't immediately walking out the door, but I knew I wasn't contributing anything substantive. Stop reaching, its transparent as shit. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
Grackaroni
United States9846 Posts
RoL seems to truly believe that the voting block and confirmed townies would be more helpful than the blues themselves and seems to have spent a lot of time considering the implications of the mass roleclaim. I get the feeling that he legitimately believes his plan is good for town, and he stands by it even after the town declared it anti-town. The largest flaw in the plan is not the theory itself but the actual application. If only a portion of the town comes in to claim the whole plan falls apart, letting a portion of townies make claims is bad. Besides it's possible that we have a couple derp townies who would lie about their roles in order to save themselves or draw hits. risk.nuke mentioned a plan that consisted of sitting back and observing posts and got pissed off at Syllo for ruining it. I think he has been overreacting to accusations. He also is using meta on other people yet when it's used against himself meta is worthless. The only thing I agree with is that Palmar's flip does make me think that you are less likely to be a demon, still though if you were an Angel of course you're going to ask to be checked in order to prolong your life. With 20 hours to go we need to start consolidating our votes. I think risk.nuke is more likely scum than RoL but either one is preferable to a no-lynch. ##Vote: risk.nuke | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
| ||
