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What the F*** happened? Late switch? Why?
Syllo you came out looking REALLY bad after this. Your reason for pushing Erandorr so late is bullshit.
We had people on erandorr/risk. I believe something like 4/7. Then you post this:
On January 08 2012 08:32 syllogism wrote:
How many do we have around? I'm fine with switching to erandorr, I'm virtually certain that erandorr is scum and only very convinced that risk is
Why switch so late if you are _very_ convinced about risk? Is that not good enough? I understand that you can find some people more scummy then others, but why wait until 1½ hour before deadline to try an switch?
On January 08 2012 08:45 syllogism wrote:
I haven't been pushing the meta case against Erandorr, but he really wouldn't play like this as town. He even signed up for TL mafia L so he isn't burned out or busy; he just loathes playing as scum. In election mafia he hydraed with curu and refused to post at all due to rolling scum. Yesterday he lied about being sleepy, while I know he had been and still was playing dota 2 and kept playing for at least an hour after making the post (I went to sleep by that point). Such pure meta cases are annoying to push and I thought the case against risk was better in terms of it actually constituting as "playing mafia". But erandorr really can't be town
Your reasoning here looks okay, but if you had already made up your mind about not pushing him because it was all meta-based why change so late? You even say that the risk case is/was better - this was after his defence. Why would you make chaos on purpose to switch from a guy that you find scummy to a guy you find more scummy? I don't get it.
On January 08 2012 09:28 syllogism wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 09:22 layabout wrote:On January 08 2012 09:08 syllogism wrote:On January 08 2012 09:06 layabout wrote:
last minute non-justified swapping?
fuck you guys He is going to flip scum, don't worry some concerns: -risk nuke had 9 votes and bluelighz game him a time limit before he would hammer, i don't see what risk.nuke has done to justify a switch. -I am okay with an Erandorr lynch but i am more confident in an risk.nuke lynch - TL Mafia XLVIIIn this game Erandorr was scum and he ran for major and was active towards the end of day1 so i am not % sure of meta, i will check more games though. -This situation is becoming chaotic and i don't think that that is beneficial to town. -Scum could very easily control who gets lynched We can switch back, I do agree that last minute switches are awful. I may be too easily fooled by the fact risk is willing to stay here and defend, despite the fact he isn't saying anything useful at all.
You only post that can be called a reason to switch that late. But at the same time you said risk wasnt saying anything usefull - so i assume you did not like his defence or his posting.
Other then that you just pushed people to change:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 08:35 syllogism wrote:
risk.nuke please vote erandorr so we can switch if we want, you have to pm the bot, read the OP for instructions On January 08 2012 08:53 syllogism wrote:
Palmar why won't you switch? Will you switch if we can get enough? On January 08 2012 09:05 syllogism wrote:
First of all RoL you aren't voting for anyone right now, read the instructions for voting. Pm the bot:
to: zbot
subject: purgatory
body: ##Vote Erandorr
And I'll end with this:
On January 08 2012 09:08 syllogism wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 09:06 layabout wrote:
last minute non-justified swapping?
fuck you guys He is going to flip scum, don't worry
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Hello Dirkzor. Are you scum or just stupid? Do you realize that I'm the one who started the risk wagon and pretty much the reason he was sitting at 9 votes (-1 hammer) for something like several hours? Do you think my plan was to bus my team mate for the whole day, wait until he was almost lynched and then do a last minute switch to someone else? Remember, anyone could have hammered him at any point before the switch. How likely do you think it is for scum to bus a team mate in a setup like this? What was the motivation?
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Still though, why did you try to get a switch to Errandorr instead of trying to get people to vote for risk instead? Was it because you thought that the two were gonna flip scum anyway so it makes no difference?
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On January 08 2012 08:15 risk.nuke wrote:
layabout is probably a townie, Question Palmar and Dirkzor, Erandorr and Jackal are red. Banish syllo/wiggles tonight, see you.
Hey risk, since you are alive, could you please devellop on this. Whats makes your think Dirkzor and Jackal are red ?
Also, Syllogism, what is your stance about risk.nuke, and why? You basically saved him last night, do you think he is town or not ?
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I explained it here
I was so convinced that they would both flip scum, just different teams, that I thought the switch would produce free information. It did produce information, but unfortunately it was hardly free; I think Jackal looks quite suspicious as he suddenly shows up, hasn't even mentioned erandorr until then and only mentioned risk in passing and is immediately willing to switch to erandorr. If risk flips scum, Jackal is relatively likely to be his team mate.
Erandorr lied and his play looked exactly like his recent scum play. Unfortunately he apparently had some real life issues/was busy/lazy, so the lesson here is never to go for pure meta when there is a very good alternative that is based on something more substantial
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On January 08 2012 21:52 Tyrran wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 08:15 risk.nuke wrote:
layabout is probably a townie, Question Palmar and Dirkzor, Erandorr and Jackal are red. Banish syllo/wiggles tonight, see you. Hey risk, since you are alive, could you please devellop on this. Whats makes your think Dirkzor and Jackal are red ? Also, Syllogism, what is your stance about risk.nuke, and why? You basically saved him last night, do you think he is town or not ?
No, how about you tell me your stance. I've explained my stance and you can check my filter to know, but apparently you don't care. I wonder why
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I might be stupid... but with a 2 team setup they could both _not_ be on your team. I can just not find any real reason for you to switch unless risk's defence convinced you or Erandorr did something to enhance his case. Neither of which happened.
I realized you have pointed towards risk the whole day and criticized his first post. It only enhanced my question: Why the change?
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On January 08 2012 21:55 Dirkzor wrote:
I might be stupid... but with a 2 team setup they could both _not_ be on your team. I can just not find any real reason for you to switch unless risk's defence convinced you or Erandorr did something to enhance his case. Neither of which happened.
I realized you have pointed towards risk the whole day and criticized his first post. It only enhanced my question: Why the change?
Again you aren't approaching the situation correctly and not reading my posts. I had made it quite clear all day long that I was fine with lynching both. Now if you assume I'm scum but risk isn't on my team, what was the motivation for "pushing" (note that I wasn't the only one, you are focusing on the wrong person) for the switch? It can only attract suspicion, there is literally no rational motivation except a townie one; that is to say I considered him a bit more likely to flip scum. I was wrong, but it happens and I can assure you most good players who know erandorr and knew what I knew would have pushed to lynch him.
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I'm looking through Cwave's filter.
He looks fishy. Not only for saying he thinks i'm scum several times with the only reasoning is a weak ass "case" about my first post and because It found a difference in the OP and Zbot vote count post. But more so because he havent said anything else the entire first day. He have spend the entire day 1 pointing out the obvious:
RoL arent posting,
Jackal have done nothing but hate palmar (But i must admit i found his post on Jackal amusing =))
He haven't taken a stance on anything and voted Erandorr with the reason that he is lurking.
I'll keep an eye on him...
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You made chaos when no chaos was needed. I agree that both were a good lynch target so we don't disagree there, but i wouldn't start a vote switch that late if i thought both were scum. I don't assume you are scum because i don't know what you are. I'm just trying to understand why you wanted to change... If you are town a late night switch was a bad choice - even if you thought Erandorr was scummier. (Had you thought risk was town or changed your mind after his defence it would have been another matter)
I realise that you aren't the only one who pushed for the switch and I'll look into them aswell.
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Consider the setup for a second. There are two scum teams and if they had been members of two different teams as looked likely to me at the time, such a switch would likely help establish connections. Scum are much less likely to bus or sacrifice team mates in this setup when presented with a viable alternative. It was probably a bad decision, but it was a decision that made more sense in this setup than in a normal one
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Man do some guys need shovels in here or what
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Alright so I said I had a plan and I aim to flesh it out. I will like to section this into three areas, Intro, Mechanics, and Discussion. I feel that is the most direct and simplest way in which to understand this plan. All criticisms are welcome, but I am sure I have thought of most concerns and justified them somehow.
Intro
This plan is essentially a mass role claim, but for a reason. Here is how I tend to implement it. Everyone claims not their role, but there color. We should have 4 blues (Townies with powers) and then 13 green (townie without power) on the off chance we end up with 5 blues they all claim their actual roles, when we see which roles have conflict we act from there.
In this game one of the things heavily working against the town is status quo and the flow of information. The Angels have someone who kills without showing alignment while the Demons have the capacity to block the flip of a day lynch. What this plan does is preempts that decline in information because we know (roughly) all alignments before shit hits the fan. For example, if the Angels annihilate one of the blue power roles and it has never been claimed they can now safely claim the power role, basically just one of the detective type roles, but either way at that point they KNOW they are safe from a counter claim. In this scenario we put all the information out there knowing that it benefits us more than anyone else.
The way I intend this to work is we all claim which forces the demons and angels into a bad position. No information is truly hidden, and we have just taken away 4 possibilities as candidate for scum either way. which means in a group of 15 players, 6 are now scum. that's a 40% chance of hitting scum through sheer guessing. The real benefit comes in how the mechanics interact.
Mechanics
This is the part that takes more to understand and was a lot more effort to think around (hopefully) all the possibilities. One of the biggest is obviously the Angelic Acolyte who gets an extra KP if he correctly guesses townie with dark powers, corrupted townie, or Demon when performing his stalk action. This only really affects a minority of townies, namely our blues and those minority who become corrupted. I think we can counter this by using banish amongst the claimed blues as a form of protection, and at the same time the Demon's will be given incentive to also use their transport as a form of protection and a dual threat. Firstly, it increases the chance of blocking an Angel KP which the Demons want to do, secondly it takes a blue power out of action for the night. This is fine because it still maintains our voting power in the day time. This causes there to only be a 50% success rate of the angels target into the blue circle. At the same time if the demons wish to corrupt a blue and jack their vote, they have a 66% chance of not hitting a jailor block.
At the same time regular townies can be corrupted and they should claim. The longer the game draws out for the angels the more they NEED to kill corrupted townies/demons before the lynch against them is completely controlled. We can further increase this problem by having several people claim corrupt every day so the Angels can't be sure if they are going to use their extra KP effectively. The more dire the corrupted situation becomes the less they can focus on blues, and that gives us more confirmed townies with less players alive, further shrinking the town player pool narrowing down the angel/demons in the townie section of the group.
So in the end the Demons would benefit highly by managing to corrupt our blues because it will be harder for Angels to kill them, but they also benefit by spreading out corruption and forcing the Angels to spread KP to avoid being overwhelmed as the game progresses.
Discussion
Here is where we discuss the pros/cons of the strategy. First I must clear something up. Speed is paramount to the success of this strategy. We need ALL the blue claims before the day post to ensure integrity because as soon as the first annihilation happens no claim can be trusted as without fault.
There is a reason why semiclosed set ups are used in the huge majority of TL games. Knowing a role count makes the game progressively more broken and doesn't allow for any sort of fake claim. The annihilation (angel) and lynch hiding (demon) mechanics are clearly in place to allow for fake claims and a downswing in truly knowable information. We need to preempt this disadvantage and get information out in the public before it is untrustworthy.
The downside to this plan? An increase in Angel KP and the decrease in blue role efficiency due to purgatory inflicting powers such as transport and banish.
The pros I have pretty much outlined earlier. We know all roles, we end up with 4 confirmed townies and a narrowing of the scum field to a 40% chance. While our blues powers are semi neutralized their voting powers remain intact and unless the Demons want to chance it, incorruptible. This eliminates fake claims and drastically helps out with the decreasing information we will have throughout the game by knowing someones *likely* role before they die while having a confirmed group.
Well that pretty much sums up my plan, all critiques are welcome but I think I covered pretty much all dynamics in the game that interact with it. So I claim townie. I have work in a little while but will more than happily defend my position in around 6-7 hours from this post, but if you can't glaring problems with it remember that as soon as the night phase ends this plan is over. The first day cycle is the only time where blue roles cannot be faked.
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So I claim townie
On December 28 2011 15:39 Zona wrote:
Angelic Acolyte (x1)
You are still in training to be angelic warrior, so you take great care in everything you do. But should the need arise, you are ready to do what you must. Every night, you may target a player to stalk. When you do so, choose one of: demon, corrupted town, or town with dark powers. If your target matches your choice, that player will be killed. If the Angel of Death has been eliminated, you may (instead of stalking,) target a player to slay. That player will be killed. You win with the angels. You may communicate outside of the thread with your angelic teammates, who are:
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HoD Syllo Blazinghand Jackal
-people most responsible for the lynch
Mr. Wiggles Layabout + Palmar Refallen RoL (if they did switch)
-People who should have known better
Yesterdays Lynch timeline
Lynch deadline: January 08 10:00
According to the lynch and the posts in the thread this is what happened:
On January 08 2012 09:45 ZBot wrote:End of Day 1 Lynched: Erandorr (10): Blazinghand, - Blazinghand, Palmar, Blazinghand, Grackaroni, - Blazinghand, Blazinghand, Bluelightz, Tyrran, - Palmar, - Bluelightz, Cwave, HarbingerOfDoom, - Grackaroni, syllogism, risk.nuke, Grackaroni, Jackal58, Mr. Wiggles, layaboutCurrent votes: risk.nuke (4): Blazinghand, - Blazinghand, syllogism, Refallen, Dirkzor, Zephirdd, layabout, Erandorr, Mr. Wiggles, Grackaroni, Palmar, - syllogism, - Grackaroni, - Refallen, - Mr. Wiggles, - layabout
-6 hours before the lynch
risk nuke had 6 votes after i post my case
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13040868
-5 hours before the lynch
Erandor had 4 votes as cwave votes him
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13042316
-4 hours 30 minutes left
and Palmar (+Wiggles) pressure risk
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13042907
-HoD makes it 6-6 risk/eran with just over 3 hours to go to avoid a no lynch he votes for Eran which makes 6-6 whilst a risk vote would have made it 7-5
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13044935
-I then post my criticism of risk's "defence" with 3 hours left
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13045264
-Syllogism posts
On January 08 2012 07:02 syllogism wrote:
Day ends in 3 hours, but within an hour or two is fine. I'm fine with lynching either erandorr/risk
-2 hours 30 minutes before the lynch
risk had 9 votes and Eran has 4 votes
Mr. Wiggles votes risk (swaps from Palmar), Grackaroni votes risk(swaps from Eran) and Palmar votes Eran (swaps from Wiggles)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=35
By this point risk had had 3 hours to satisfactorily defend himself but nobody at any point during the time states that they felt he had convinced them of his innocence, furthermore nothing new against Erandor is presented.
-1 hour 45 to go
Blazinghand says he will hammer risk in 1 hour 30 and that risk should put together his final contribution
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13047615
Read through what happens next very carefully,
Syllogism posts this
On January 08 2012 08:32 syllogism wrote:
How many do we have around? I'm fine with switching to erandorr, I'm virtually certain that erandorr is scum and only very convinced that risk is
then Blazinghand goes from
On January 08 2012 08:18 Blazinghand wrote:
risk.nuke if you're town, maybe you can pull some amazing argument out of your ass. If you don't think you can, please try to be helpful. Clock's ticking.
to
On January 08 2012 08:34 Blazinghand wrote:
Man I'm amazed nobody understands that Erandorr is hustlin us as I have been saying
Rather than following up on his "post before i hammer you" stance BHsuddenly wants to switch to Eran
Syllogism had already stated that he was fine with lynching either but with 9 votes on risk and somebody promising to hammer he has a change of heart.
-1 hour 25 minutes left
Next, Grackaroni says he will switch
On January 08 2012 08:35 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm still here if we want to re-switch
-At this point Syllogism has changed his vote (so its 8/6 risk/Erandorr) but he has not declared it in the thread. He tells poeple to only switch if they can stay until the deadline
-He and BH then encourage people to switch,
-risk votes for erandor
BH reposts case on Eran
On January 08 2012 08:36 Blazinghand wrote:
risk.nuke you haven't voted? ._. cmon man.
pm
to: zbot
subject: purgatory
body: ##Vote Erandorr
-1 hour 20 minutes left
Mr. Wiggles wants to know why syllo will switch
On January 08 2012 08:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'm around. Why the change of heart?
-1 hour 12mins left
Grackaroni switches to Erandorr vote are now tied at 7/7
On January 08 2012 08:48 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm going to go back to Erandorr then, there's no harm in doing it I'll be here if we can't secure enough votes.
-1 hour 10 before the lynch
98% sure BH is being sarcastic and still thinks risk is scum
On January 08 2012 08:47 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 08:47 risk.nuke wrote:
I'm not scum, A nolynch would even be better then to mislynch a townie. OH WOW GREAT ARGUMENT YOU CONVINCE ME NOW
On January 08 2012 08:49 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 08:48 risk.nuke wrote:
Blazinghand quit beeing a huge troll. You did some pressuring but that's all you've done, after that you just got convinced of your own selfimportance so please tune it down. You made an argument that consisted of "well you guys shouldn't lynch me because i'm town" Really? Why would you even say that.
Grackaroni says he is going back to risk but he doesn't
On January 08 2012 08:48 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm going to go back to Erandorr then, there's no harm in doing it I'll be here if we can't secure enough votes.
-1 hour left
-Palmar will lynch either now? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13048314
-update from syllo
On January 08 2012 08:58 syllogism wrote:
No I still think risk is scum, but I'm pretty much certain that erandorr is.
-55 minutes left
RoL says he will read the thread and syllo tells us how to pm to vote for Erandorr
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13048410
-42 minutes left
A wild Refallen appears!
On January 08 2012 09:17 Refallen wrote:
Just woke up. Are we switching to erandorr? Why not risk? And how long do we have?
wants to lynch risk but willing to vote either
-33 minutes left
On January 08 2012 09:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
If we're going to lynch Erandorr, you still need two more people besides me. Who are they?
I don't want a no-lynch.
with Wiggles prepared to switch it is now possible to lynch Erandorr
Vote tally
Risk nuke:
Refallen, Dirkzor, Zephirdd, layabout, Erandorr, Mr. Wiggles, Palmar,
Erandor:
Cwave, HarbingerOfDoom, syllogism, risk.nuke, Grackaroni, Tyrran, Blazinghand
-Refallen Wiggle and palmar have all stated their willingness to vote for either and BH and syllogism have been pressuring people to vote Eran, If you want to avoid a no-lunch, who does it seem is most likely to be lynched?
My excuse for my actions to come:
I felt by this point it would be Erandorr who would be lynched, i had opposed the vote switch but as stated earlier i stated that i was fine with an Erandorr lynch, and a no-lynch would have been really bad. Syllo did say that they could switch back so i waited in anticipation told BH to switch back because we were running out of time.
-30 minutes left until deadline
On January 08 2012 09:31 Blazinghand wrote:
No you guys come over to Erandorr we still have like 10ish minutes
On January 08 2012 09:33 layabout wrote:
oh shit it is about 10-15 A bit of derpage here although we really shouldn't be voting in the last 10-15 minutes so its almost accurate
People still around:
risk.nuke
Blazinghand
syllogism
Palmar
Mr. Wiggles
layabout
Refallen
Grackaroni
RoL
-27 minutes left
On January 08 2012 09:33 Refallen wrote:
I'm going to swich in about 5 minutes if its clear no one is switching to risk
Refallen is on risk.nuke if he switches then vote is 6/8 risk/eran
The implication of this is that if people have not switched back in those 5 minutes Eran gets another vote,
therefore if people on Eran switch to risk, risk is lynched, if they stay Eran gets lynched, so they will probably stay
-25 minutes left
A scumbag drops out of the sky, It used to be know as Jackal 58, it doesn't say much anymore
On January 08 2012 09:35 Jackal58 wrote:
Since Palmar isn't happening I switched to Erandorr.
Between he and risk I'd rather have risk around another day. Erandorr's alignment will be impossible to determine by his activity.
I think RoL did vote but he spelled it wrong. Dunno if that matters or not.
Vote is now 7/8 risk/eran Refallen is promising to switch to Eran to no body switches back
he also has a defence for RoL disappearing, could be nothing could be scummy
-1 minute later
Wiggles will now vote for Erandorr, so if people do what they have declared they will Erandorr is now going to be lynched
On January 08 2012 09:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
If two people switch to Erandorr, I'll hammer. Otherwise, move back onto risk.
RoL, have you read "the last few pages" yet, it's been a half hour.
-21 minutes until deadline
I am willing to switch
On January 08 2012 09:39 layabout wrote:
if you switch back to risk will we have enough?
i am willing to switch to eran if necessary
On January 08 2012 09:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
There's 11 minutes left. Zbot will only update two more times. Somebody switch, post, and I'll hammer.
from this post i conclude that the lynch may in fact be at 9:50 instead of 10:00 in terms of the times at the post, either way there is very little time left!
-20 or maybe 10 minutes left
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13048770
9:40 Refallen says he has changed to Eran
9:41 Then Wiggles says to expect flip in 4 minutes
9:41 Then I say i have changed to Eran (i posted done immediately after i sent my pm)
risk.nuke (4): Blazinghand, -Blazinghand, syllogism, Refallen, Dirkzor, Zephirdd, layabout, Erandorr, Mr. Wiggles, Grackaroni, Palmar, -syllogism, -Grackaroni, -Refallen, -Mr. Wiggles, -layabout
If we look at the vote count refallen unvotes first then wiggles does then i do ( i unvoted just before i voted and then posted "done")
But if we look at the final votes for Eran (below) my vote clearly goes though before Erandorrs.
Could Refallen have simply not voted?
Votes are counted in the order they are received, correct?
Yes.
Will Zbot count votes received during the same refresh cycle after majority has been reached?
Once majority has been reached, voting is over and all subsequent votes are ignored.
(i didn't ask these questions) it seems like if Refallens vote was sent first then his name should have been on the list. He may have been trying to trick us into no-lyching but there is to much uncertainty for me to confidently say he did. It is a possiblity worth considering nevertheless
On January 08 2012 09:45 ZBot wrote:End of Day 1 Lynched: Erandorr (10): Blazinghand, - Blazinghand, Palmar, Blazinghand, Grackaroni, - Blazinghand, Blazinghand, Bluelightz, Tyrran, - Palmar, - Bluelightz, Cwave, HarbingerOfDoom, - Grackaroni, syllogism, risk.nuke, Grackaroni, Jackal58, Mr. Wiggles, layaboutCurrent votes: risk.nuke (4): Blazinghand, - Blazinghand, syllogism, Refallen, Dirkzor, Zephirdd, layabout, Erandorr, Mr. Wiggles, Grackaroni, Palmar, - syllogism, - Grackaroni, - Refallen, - Mr. Wiggles, - layaboutTyrran (1): HarbingerOfDoom, Bluelightz, - HarbingerOfDoomRebirthOfLeGenD (0): Blazinghand, Bluelightz, - Blazinghand, - BluelightzPalmar (0): Mr. Wiggles, Jackal58, Refallen, Blazinghand, - Blazinghand, - Refallen, - Mr. Wiggles, - Jackal58Refallen (0): Blazinghand, - BlazinghandBluelightz (0): Blazinghand, - Blazinghand, Blazinghand, - BlazinghandMr. Wiggles (0): Zephirdd, Palmar, - Palmar, - ZephirddDirkzor (0): Blazinghand, - BlazinghandHarbingerOfDoom (0): Grackaroni, - GrackaroniGrackaroni (0): layabout, - layabout
Palmar and RoL have also claimed to have tried to vote for Erandorr too.
-2 minutes before nightpost
On January 08 2012 09:43 Refallen wrote:
Risk if you're some kind of role you should claim, just pointing ouy
In light of the fact that he allegedly just hammered Erandorr and that risk will live into the night, claiming would allow an acolyte to kill him, yes?
-1 minute before nighpost
care to explain this?
On January 08 2012 09:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 09:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
If two people switch to Erandorr, I'll hammer. Otherwise, move back onto risk.
RoL, have you read "the last few pages" yet, it's been a half hour. I did and I cast my vote for Erandorr through the PM thing. Here is my reasoning. Switching from target A to target B is highly unlikely to ever hit a scum barring a DT check (This is more true in town/scum no third faction games, but still holds true here) no second bandwagon should gain momentum if its scum because the scum wouldn't let it happen. That being said, since my other post only about 6-7 pages have happened in game iirc and somehow risk.nuke attained a near majority which is insane. There is no way you are going to hit scum with that kind of rapid vote switch and in fact, that somewhat incriminates Erandorr because why else would a vote switch happen so rapidly? I read some of Risk's posts, admittedly not all, but he didn't seem too bad from my point of view, I don't know what the hell palmar is getting at. But I only inferred that from his posts on pages 34-36ish since I know we are nearing the deadline. Lastly, I read Blazinghand's analysis of Erandorr which seemed good, in the sense that I agree that Erandorr comes off as a disconcerned scum on D1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=37#723So I am keeping my vote on Erandorr, anyone on the risk.nuke lynch is suspect for jumping ship so hard, if erandorr flips scum then Palmar deserves a hard look.I also have a plan I have been considering, I plan on enlightening you all during the night phase assuming I can flesh out all the weird possibilities in this set up.
You say that Eran was the lynch and that risk.nuke was the scum, bandwagon. "Anyone on risk.nuke is suspect for jumping so hard" wtf?
I hope that the rest of this post demonstrates why exactly that is incorrect
You haven't even read all of risks posts?
You ignore the case against risk but you decide that BH's analysis of Erandorr seemed good and can support it.
In the hour or so between you popping up saying you wil read the thread, and you posting that you voted after people claimed to have decided the lynch what exactly did you do? because you apparantly haven't read both players filters and you have only reference one argument for one player being scummy and none for the other.
You better present this plan soon because you have lurker harder than Erandor did and a number of people have said that you are a good target for night actions.
So Yeah a lot can be made of what happened but i hope that this can help to clarify, what happened or can push you to carefully read though and draw your own conclusions! now time to proof reed...
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On January 08 2012 23:53 Bluelightz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 15:39 Zona wrote:
Angelic Acolyte (x1)
You are still in training to be angelic warrior, so you take great care in everything you do. But should the need arise, you are ready to do what you must. Every night, you may target a player to stalk. When you do so, choose one of: demon, corrupted town, or town with dark powers. If your target matches your choice, that player will be killed. If the Angel of Death has been eliminated, you may (instead of stalking,) target a player to slay. That player will be killed. You win with the angels. You may communicate outside of the thread with your angelic teammates, who are:
He can't choose "townie". All town claims are safe until they claim corrupted.
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[QUOTE]On January 08 2012 21:53 syllogism wrote:
I explained it here
[quote]I was so convinced that they would both flip scum, just different teams, that I thought the switch would produce free information. It did produce information, but unfortunately it was hardly free; I think Jackal looks quite suspicious as he suddenly shows up, hasn't even mentioned erandorr until then and only mentioned risk in passing and is immediately willing to switch to erandorr. If risk flips scum, Jackal is relatively likely to be his team mate.[/quote]
Erandorr lied and his play looked exactly like his recent scum play. Unfortunately he apparently had some real life issues/was busy/lazy, so the lesson here is never to go for pure meta when there is a very good alternative that is based on something more substantial[/QUOTE]
that hurts
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I think some of the blues are too strong for that to be a good idea. As long as claims aren't blindly trusted later on, mass claiming is the inferior strategy. Both angel roles would likely shoot into blues tonight and I don't think the demons have a big incentive to do anything about that; the demon hunter in particular is a too big threat to them. The loss of information doesn't mean no claim can be trusted, it just means you actually have to analyze the player and see if the claim makes sense. Depending on what scum roles we lynch first and who/what angels kill, the roles may be necessary for town to win.
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I didn't have time and you are misreading. I said if Erandorr flips scum then the shipjumpers should be suspect. The principle is still true. Without a DT check the chance of a vote switch hitting a townie without something significant happening is so incredibly low because mafia wouldn't let you so easily switch from a townie to a mafia. I don't know what else there is to explain. Erandorr was the initial, Risk,nuke was the switch. The switch is less likely to be scum than the original.
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@RoL but Erandor was the switch!
also cwave had to take some of the blame for the lynch
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EPT
