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On November 05 2011 23:21 Skrammen wrote:So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town. Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible: 1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him. 2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two. Also, I noticed somthing Toad said: + Show Spoiler +Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip? Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.
a scumslip? What other possibilities are there? :D
And no, Mafia deciding to /dance (deciding not to kill someone) is not an explanation I'm going with. So yeah I guess the only thing left is us havin a medic.
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but it's awesome. The very moment I post something that's so clear and I don't need to explain it someone shows up and yells at me that I'm scum because you can interprete it in a way nobody does until he's forced to do so by some magical power.
I don't know if that's a townie being overeager to find something where nothing's to be found or a mafia trying to get people on me again. I'm still kinda shocked since hyshes flipped green.
If I have to stop lynching people like hyshes I'm just not sure by what standars I'm supposed to go. A mafia yelling he's mafia? Yeah that happened last game and he got banned for that. But given those two things (mafia yelling he's mafia and what hyshes did) I'm just having problems imagining something you're able to do that makes you more mafia than hyshes actions and at the same time less than a mafia yelling he's mafia because that's a banreason.
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Ok let's look back at what we know out of the voting from day1. I changed it a little bit do add who's dead and deleted those unvotes to make it more readable. The only people who changes votes were me ( I was on choc changing to skrammen) and zanfa who was on hack and changed to skrammen as well. So here we go:
On November 01 2011 10:02 kitaman27 wrote:
Day One Update
Hacklebeast
Chocolate
Skrammen
Zanfada
hyshes dead
Drem903
Skrammen
Chocolate
Ciryandor
Toadesstern
xsksc
Zanfada
HarbingerOfDoom
Toadesstern
hacklebeast
IMABUNNEH
risk.nuke dead
That was the most recent update on day1 and nothing changed afterwards, so it got to be right.
I'm not going to make it to complex here and will just talk about the skrammen-issue and what skrammen being red or green means.
So obviously we got 2 possibilties: He's either red or green (while being blue would be a subset of being green).
What does either one mean for us?
If he turns out to be read I'm 99% certain there's no mafia voting for him. I don't think they would risk that given we already got 6 votes for him and 7 would be enough to lynch him. As you can see we only got 4 people who are not voting for skrammen who are still alive. That would mean if skrammen's red probably 2 out of those 3 left are mafia (those 3 are former hacklebeast, bunneh and drem). So that would be awesome.
However if he flips green we probably got a bunch of mafias voting for skrammen as well. I'd say about 2 and one spreading his vote. If that's what's true we might have to reconsider who actually is town and who's not.
2 Days ago I went ahead and said I'm pretty sury ciry, zanfa and xsksc are town. Takeing into consideration what harb did the last days he's without a doubtt on my town list as well. What's left is choc and myself.
Frankly I'm considering myself to be townie :p Also I think a lot of people are still considering me to be a 50/50 because of what happened on day1 because from my point of view I made clear I'm a townie on night1 and day2 but yeah those 2 lynches which turned out to be green didn't exactly help my reputation since both wanted to get me lynched.
So for me that makes choc an easy target (that is ONCE and IF skrammen flips green) and I have to reconsider what I think of xsksc (haven't checkes his history but I got the feeling he isn't posting that much lately), ciry (same as xsksc although he got an excuse) and zanfa (same again).
Right know I'm leaning towards skrammen because of that. If we lynch a townie again it's 6v3 and if mafias succeeds in killing a townie it's going to be 5v3 which is almost lylo (it is unless our medic pulls another hero) and we have to lynch 3 mafias in a row to get this done.
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I really should proofread after changing phrases because if I don't a post like the one above comes out 
I hope it's still understandable. Some spelling issues (do = to, read = red, that very first sentence just got no grammar or whatsoever :p)
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oh yeah seems like I missed that because I was still asleep at that point in time. My bad :p
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also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it.
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Well in that case I'm obviously on Skrammen.
Given what I said earlier I think the outcome is always better if we lynch skrammen. If he's mafia than fine, we just lynched a mafia (same if you lynch me and I flip red). However since we got hyshes and risk the green case is really fucked up. If I flip green you can't tell a bit about other people because risk and hyshes, who both targeted me were green. So a logic like "let's just lynch everyone who pushed for toad" would be flawed.
Plus I got to add that I still think the only reason you guys still think I'm 50% mafia is because of those weird lynches/kills by mafia. Yes both attacked me bot come on, noone could have THAT seen comming
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oh just to add it:
##vote Skrammen
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Just got a call. I'm going to be out playing poker today in an hour. So if you got questions for me, now would be the time. I'm going to be back at 02:00 am my time I guess (that's in 6 hours) and since it's saturday np to stay up for the deadline.
So if you can't wait 6 hours for my response go ahead and ask NOW or wait 6 hous.
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oooh right. we got a whole day + some hours :D
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hey there I'm at a friends laptop right now and since I run into AK on an AXX board (first fucking hand in our 9 people tournament...) having AQ I'm having some spare time until they finished this round
First of all I'm unvoting, I might have found something weird.
##Unvote Skrammen
But I would like to see one particular post and I just can't find it. Someone stated a weird ratio of town vs mafia and I'm not sure who did that. If you guys know what I'm talking about I'd really love to see that post again because I can't find it, I don't know who did that post, I don't know at which page this post was made and I don't know by what I should search.
A reply of who made that post would be good just fine because I could look my way through his posts as well. After all I can do the work myself I just need to know who made that post.
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Ok found it myself and I would like to hear your opinion on it. Might be a scumslip, might be just weird.
On November 03 2011 03:35 Drem903 wrote:
you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible.
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote:
Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
On November 03 2011 03:21 Drem903 wrote:
[ ... his reason why he voted for me ... ]
Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance.
Now that's kind of the drem we all know. He seems to be not that much informed, doesn't know you can unvote and isn't even aware of the fact how many mafias are in this game which would normally make him look really green because every mafia know how many buddies he has, right? HOWEVER, what I found yesterday was the following:
On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote:
I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
Now read the bolded part again. That's kinda weird right? He's the guy who got so little information about mafia, does mistakes from time to time and also keeps telling us he's a noob (that's his excuse for not voting for skrammen on day1 and I think he said so a couple of times in the thread) and yet he comes and tells people they are suspicious because they posted something everyone should know? That's strange to say the least and I think he might be playing a game on us, fooling us into thinking he's a noob while he does those "mistakes" on purpose.
He just completly changed his posting style that very moment. He's the guy who makes mistakes and therefore I stopped thinking he's mafia and yet he just comes by basicly telling people "hey that's really something odd, I think everybody knows about that because we had to read the thread, why do you post that?". Well yeah I thought everybody knows there's 3 mafias in this game as well just as I thought everybody knows you're able to unvote.
Your opinion guys?
Oh and just to add. I don't even know what drem was talking about in the last post I quoted. He clearly was talking about zanfa but he didn't quote a thing. So I searched for a zanfa post on page 13 (that's where drems post was), nothing to be found ,same for page 12 and I finally found a post on page 11.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote:I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that. What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. Show nested quote +On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote:On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote:
Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you. Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable. I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point. Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Right now I'm on drem and I would like to hear his thoughts about it as well. Maybe I'm just misinterpreting something but I want him to tell me if that's the case and what I'm doing wrong. So imo he's either a total nooby or he's a mafia trying to make us think he'S a nooby and the last thing I quoted from drem makes me think it's the second one right now.
##Vote Drem903
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On November 07 2011 00:13 Ciryandor wrote:
Finally, I leave to anyone who wants to follow up on my Day 1 post why they think Skrammen is a good lynch. Right now, my suspicions are on Drem and Skrammen, with xsksc being a close third. Toad and Bunneh's scumminess depend on each other, if one flips green or red, chances are the other is the same. Zanfada relies a bit on drem's flip as well. Chocolate and sermo are both non-tells, while HoD is closest to confirmed town in my eyes.
pretty much sums up my thoughts as well except for maybe xsksc. I would not put him on my 3rd place of my mafia list, maybe on 4 or 5.
Could you please do me a favor and tell me what you think about what I pointed out about drem just before you started doing your analyses? Because that was actually the most flashing part for me when I searched his history because I thought it's just not fitting his usual style.
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It really is a hard lynch and to be honest the decision whether to lynch skrammen or drems a comlpete gut feeling for me right now as they're both so close for me.
Chocolate might be on the same level of scumminess or slightly below but I think we're able to spot if he's mafia out of a drem or skrammen lynch way better than the other way around. That's why I'm not on choc for today (unless I really have to because we got a bunch of votes on him) and would rather see skrammen or drem lynched. xsksc is still kind of a 0-read for me. He got a a few posts which looked a little townie and I thought there might be a bunch that look a little scummy but those turned out to be mistakes I made. Right now I'd say xsksc is more likely to be town but it's nowhere near a clear read.
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Oh and my reasoning in drem over skrammen is that skrammen looks more scummy imo but drem looks less town.
So far I went for risk and hyshes because they looked awfully scummy and in both cases it turned out to be a nooby-mistake.
That's why I'm willing to change it up a bit and rather go for those who look like they're not town instead of going by people who look to be scum, because that could just be another nooby-mistake.
Don't get this wrong, I don't think that skrammen is looking town at all I'm just way more scared that he might actually be town and my feared scenario 2) from earlier on is the right one. I'm not that scared on drem to be honest.
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On November 07 2011 07:19 Zanfada wrote:I think SK is scummier then Drem but both are on my scum list. I am going to be traveling for the next 4ish hours soon. There doesn't seem to be support for the SK lynch right now but he is at the top of my scum list. So I am going to vote for drem. Drem doesn't seem to be trying to get info, most of his posts are fluff and semi emotional reactions to other things. Also during day Toad and Drem had an interaction which was fairly odd. Both of them voted for each other and a little while later just unvoted each other. Very odd behavior. I am not sure if it scum or not, it is just odd behavior. Show nested quote +On November 05 2011 07:26 Zanfada wrote:
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me
Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon
Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into
Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up under pressure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
##Vote Drem903
At that point in time I was very suspicious of drem and he suddenly said something along the lines "well and that makes is 6 townies vs 4 mafias which makes it even harder to get a majority". I figured a mafia would know how many mafias are in this game. However given what I posted today I think he might be tricking us.
That's why I unvoted instantly.
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On November 07 2011 08:31 IMABUNNEH wrote:
3 for Drem, 3 for Toad, and a random vote from Harbinger on xsxksdkds.
How many people haven't voted? And I implore Harbinger to pick either one of them. I think voting Toad gives us far more information than voting Drem, but if we sit around with a no-lynch again we're going to be in trouble. Still waiting for an explanation to the xkskskcxkfd vote as well. At the moment it just looks like you're deliberately blocking a lynch for one reason or another.
I think you're totally wrong here to be honest. A lynch on me gives us ZERO information if I flip green.
If I flip red it's obviously awesome for you as everyone flipping red would be. However if I flip green you just can't say "well let's target everyone who target toad" because pretty much everyone here once thought I'm mafia although most people stopped thinking that way after day1. The only reason people still want to lynch me is because of that vote mafia kill on risk and that lynch on hyshes.
Let's be honest. We ALL thought that risk kill was weird and noone knew why they went for him so I am fine the reasoning behind it to try and get town back on me again. It's a towniekill + town is back on me. Everyone else would be just a townie kill. Therefore risk was the best possible kill for them at that point in time if you believe I am green.
If you believe I am red mafia played stupid and would be better off killing someone like cyri or harb imo.
And well that hyshes lynch was just weird. I can't blame ANYONE for going after hyshes after what he did and I still hope you don't blame me for going after him as well.
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Oh just something that came to my mind as well: Consider mafia is probably aware of their situation. If you guys lynch a townie you on lylo the next day and about to lose the game.
Mafia is probably trying to get us lynch a townie right now. Now look at those people who we believe are most likely town and those who are somewhere inbetween or on peoples mafia top-5 list.
People like harb are voting for drem, while those people who are an issue right now are voting for me. Is that a coincidence?
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crap a bunch of spelling mistakes on those two most recent posts. Have to go to bed in 20 mins or something like that so I'm really rushing right now
If somethings unclear please ask me NOW. Sometimes there's words like "are" missing somewhere but I think it's stil readable :p
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On November 07 2011 09:14 Drem903 wrote:Show nested quote +
Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Because "no lynch, is better than a unsuported lynch" doesn't seem like a good reason in terms of this type of game. So i'm not going back on anything. Multiple people asked, so i expanded up on it a bit more so that they would have a satisfactory answer. It was not a good reason, but i had one. Also, how does spreading misinformation work when i was almost immediately corrected, and seemed to be the only one who made this mistake? Even then, i just said it'd be hard to get a majority, which was true until hyshes martyred himself for no reason. Also, as an aside, the thing about playing the newbie card. It was never brought up until i screwed up with he number of mafia. I still dont' get where i'm playing the newbie card, so some more info on that would actually be nice.
you just mentioned it a lot. Look up my those posts I quoted earlier. And that's just those who are suspicious. I'm pretty sure I found a couple phrases along the line "well yeah, but this is my first game so dunno/ I'm noob". I can't ensure it right now since I did not quote them but I'm pretty sure I read that sometimes while going through your history and that is a common mafia tell. However in a noobgame it really is a not only a common mafiatell but also a commong townie tell as well :p
The problem with your posts is that one post where you said that zanfa did not have to post stuff because everyone should know what he just posted, because everyone had to read the first post in our thread. And that's just nothing like your usual posts that involve yourself making mistakes like not knowing how many mafias this game has. Also as mentioned earlier, those mistakes turned out to help you all the time.
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EPT
