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Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 10:38 GMT
#781
I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well.

But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess.

I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 10:51 GMT
#782
On November 11 2011 19:38 Skrammen wrote:
I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well.

But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess.

I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon.


I don't know what to say to who you saved on Night 2. If it was me or HoD, then the double confirm would force scum to kill you after this lynch THEN target that person the next night. That will make it easier because we'll be left with at least one confirmed remaining townie (and that puts the onus on them to determine who's scum XD). You can redeem yourself for not doing a better job of coming off as townie and do your analysis while you're still alive. I am not sure whether it's good to reveal your save attempt list, just because scum will definitely get more info out of that.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
IMABUNNEH
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom1062 Posts
November 11 2011 15:11 GMT
#783
Sorry I've missed a couple of pages. Real life and stuff.


So
HarbingerOfDoom - Townie
xsksc
Ciryandor - Townie
sermokala
Skrammen - Claims Medic.
Drem903
IMABUNNEH

This is what we have to go on, that's assuming everyone is right about Harbinger and Ciry. God help us if we're not.

The fact that nobody is arguing with SKrammen's medic claim leads me to believe that he must be a medic. If he wasn't the real medic would have stepped in by now I'd assume.

That leaves xkkscsk, sermo, Drem and myself. That means I only have one possible proposed scum list:

Drem
Sermo
xkssdksc

Am I right in thinking we need a lynch today, since if SKrammen IS medic and dies then 3v3 is a lose? In that case We HAVE to make sure we're correct, which means lynching someone we're certain on. The question you should ask is who are you certain of? For those 3, I'm sure their list will replace myself with them, so we have the 4 "obvious" choices, and need to cut us down immediately. We can't mislynch today. What does everyone think of each of the 4 of us? Who is most likely scum? We need EVERYONE to agree, and I want to see everyone's opinions, because that will show us who is most likely scum.
"I think...now? No rival. Me world champion. Yeah. None rival." - oGsMC
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 16:26 GMT
#784
I feel that both Sermokala and Drem are scum. Sermo's words seem pretty forced and not genuine, and I've already mention why I think that Drem is a scum. There isnt a lot to go on with xskcd but he could very well be one aswell. I'm not sure about yourself, bunneh, but I got nothing solid to go on. At this point, it would be silly to assume that either ciry or hod is scum, because if they are, they are playing us so well I just might cry.

I do not at all like the deafitist attitude of Sermo, and it reminds me too much of hyshes. But I dont think he will flip green.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 17:55 GMT
#785
Saying who you protected night two can really only help town. Scum already know who is town. If it is somebody besides me or Ciry...then we have the whole scum team and we win. If it is one of us, then I suppose at least it will help remove any doubt that someone might have still.
Also, I was kinda hoping medic was anyone but you since based on my analysis the previous day/how easy it would have been to lynch you, I was now confident you were town, so anyone else claiming would have given me the full scum team :-P

But, good to know for 100% sure now :-)
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14056 Posts
November 11 2011 17:57 GMT
#786
Well with skramen claiming medic. We have to lynch someone. I know I'm not scum so I really hope that people don't chose me. Yes skrammen you should the scum knows and they'll win tonight if we don't get one of them anyway. It would clear up a few suspects for who to lynch.

If I was scum why would I have toad killed. It would make no sense. I could just kill someone else and keep the lynchtrain rolling on toad until the game was won. I had (If I was scum) a few decent arguments and the agreement of a few people that he was. if nothing else I could have pulled out mislynches for the last couple days. But instead the scum killed him and took out my thought of who was scum. Thats a horrible play if I was scum.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 18:00 GMT
#787
@Bunneh
Everyone in that group of 4 only has one choice on a scum team, so I don't care what their scum team is. Getting input from those 4 is getting 3 poisonous opinions and one valid one, not something I care to be influenced by. You were supposed to answer my request preferably before the night kill, but at least before the medic claim for it to be worth anything. Also, I'll go look more closely now, but I have a feeling you're scum, which means I care even less ;-)

Time to go filter our 4 suspects and see what their interactions are.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 18:03 GMT
#788
@Sermo
You never would have gotten Toad lynched. I was vehemently against it, and Ciry opposed it. Scum is smart enough to know they couldn't get him lynched. Based on what we know now, there were 2 or 3 scum backing it, the medic backing it, and 0 or 1 townies. Your argument is WIFOM.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 18:40 GMT
#789
The main interaction was xsksc starting the day 3 voting for Drem, which nearly got him lynched. If we assume that xsksc had no reason to bus a teammate there, that means our two possible scum teams are:
Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala
Drem, Sermokala, Bunneh

Which means Sermokala and Bunneh would both have to be scum either way.

So...
##Vote sermokala

@Skrammen
Just saying it again in case it gets buried, who you protected night 2 would be useful information.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 18:59 GMT
#790
Well, allright then. They tried to kill you, Harbinger. I guess thats why I followed your bandwagon on Chocolate, because you were the only one I could with certainty say were a townie. This will probably make you next in line for a night kill, but lets hope its worth it.

Why do you think that both sermo and drem can be scum tho?
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
xsksc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom1044 Posts
November 11 2011 19:08 GMT
#791
I would prefer drem but sermos fine with me too.

##vote Sermokala

We can't afford to no-lynch today, and I trust HoDs judgement more than anyone's, especially now we got our medic confirming him as townie.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14056 Posts
November 11 2011 19:20 GMT
#792
well with hod accusing me I don't have a chance anymore.

gg scum. you can come out now.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 19:39 GMT
#793
@Skrammen
Don't forget to vote at some point :-)
As for Sermo and Drem, Drem lightly calls out Hackle once when it looks like he will be mod-killed. Sermo called Drem scum in passing once but never did anything about it or mentioned it again. Neither of them did anything to endanger the life of the other, nor put suspicion on them at a time when there wasn't suspicion already.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 19:48 GMT
#794
And wait a second...hahahahaha, you saved me? No wonder Bunneh put off that post analyzing me, he thought I'd be dead.
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 22:12 GMT
#795
That I did. I expect apology muffins! We still have another 26~ hours, yes?
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
IMABUNNEH
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom1062 Posts
November 11 2011 22:28 GMT
#796
On November 12 2011 04:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
And wait a second...hahahahaha, you saved me? No wonder Bunneh put off that post analyzing me, he thought I'd be dead.


No lol. I don't know if you've noticed, but I'm both not as active as I want to be (especially the days I'm doing shit), and I'm also kind of lazy. If I was scum, don't you think I would have made sure it went up before you died? If I was red (hint: I'm not), then getting it up earlier would let me play the whole "Oh my god I got him killed woe is me!" kind of speech, which would make me instantly popular right?

No, you've read too much into that. The other 3 are obviously the scum. You want me to analyse their posting to prove that it's them and not me, but people did the same for hyshes and Chocolate and look how well that turned out. At this point whether I was scum or green I could write anything I wanted to implicate people.

But protip, we know that of the 4 of us, 3 must be scum right? If you think it's me, despite me doing far more to try and help us than people like sermo, xksccsx, and Drem (who has succeeded pretty well in pushing attention just around him) then by all means go ahead and lose us the game. Or you could do the smart thing and vote for someone who is far more confirmed red than me and make your judgement based on that.


I'm also not the one who spent a day saying "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE STUPID THIS GUY IS OBVIOUSLY RED", and when they flipped green, spent my next few posts telling everyone "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID SHEEP WE LOSE NOW GG"

We all need to agree on a lynch right? At least agree on one you actually know, rather than a half-assed "It all adds up!"


Do we have until tonight or tomorrow night?
"I think...now? No rival. Me world champion. Yeah. None rival." - oGsMC
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 22:52 GMT
#797
Either way, from your perspective sermo is 100% scum, so why aren't you voting him?
Drem903
Profile Joined November 2010
United States100 Posts
November 12 2011 00:50 GMT
#798
Alright, so it seems that the consensus of those we are certain are town (HoD & Ciry) are that 3/4 of myself, bunneh, xsksc, and sermo are mafia. Then we have Skrammen claiming medic, which i'm kind of concerned about because noone's counter claimed, but i guess we have no choice but to go with that for now.

So of the 4 of us that are held to be the most suspicious Sermo looks like the person that everyone is going for, and i'm inclined to agree to that.

Some reasons though: In his very first post he's quick to vote for toad (not unusual) and then say with confidence that SK should be next, but what's striking about this is his closing comment:
. They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.


It's seems random and out of place that he is immediately concerned that he'll be seen as scum. If he is scum, as we seem to believe, then he already knew that both Toad and SK were town, and that both of them were held in suspicion.

reason 2:
Chocolate
Gets voted and then goes on a really active streak and then goes back to being a lurker. I don't want to go on a whichhunt alone but tomorrow I think we need to take a longer look at him if we don't get a mafia this time around.


You say we need to look at chocolate more, you may not say that he's mafia but, you definitely push suspicion on him. You then follow up in you're very next post that the game is over because chocolate was lynched.

Reason 3:
Your defeatist attitude contributes nothing to the town. At least 4 posts that don't say anything more thatn "scum wins, no point in playing." What kind of town would completely quit when the game isn't completely over. We may be in deep shit, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

##vote sermokala


Some thoughts on IMABUNNEH:

Bunneh is also the other person that is most likely person to be mafia. Sermo did comment on Bunneh's inactivity earlier, but half of that was saying it was because bunneh is British and he [sermo] is Belgian, and the other half is just that he bandwagons. Bunneh has always been on his list of people he's suspicious of, but he's never gone into detail why (he wouldn't want to make any good points about his partners right?).

In addition, bunneh is (as of posting) refusing to do any analysis on the grounds that it is "pointless". He claims to be lazy, and he dodges the question about why he didn't post his analysis of HoD. He claims that if he was Red he would have posted it so that he could defend himself, but it's equally likely that he didn't post it because he believed HoD would be dead by the the time it would be necessary. I would go as far as to say, he never had any evidence against HoD, and only made the comment to look like he had some big thing to contribute.

Some thoughts on xsksc:

Votes with most other people on sermo, and had him on his scum list a few days back, so he's not exactly band wagoning. His excuse for not posting is that: a) whenever he's on there's nothing worthwhile to comment on (which is a pretty crappy reason, if you don't see anything worthwhile, shouldn't you try and come up with some kind of point? or at least make some speculations. b)He has timezone issues. I understand that he's European, but so were quite a few others, and they still managed to actively contribute. Other than that, i don't have much of a read on him. He has at least posted some reason as to why he voted for sermo (the defeatist attitude), but other than that he just hasn't contributed anythign. He also doesn't defend himself when harb votes for him saying:

+ Show Spoiler +
'd love to defend myself harb, but you haven't given a SINGLE reason why you voted for me. I'm really puzzled by this, if you want me lynched why wait so long in the day without giving anyone some reasons to vote for me? I'm EU so I cant be up until the deadline, are you trying to start a bandwagon on me when I won't be online to defend myself?


So, he makes no effort because he doesn't see any reason? And this is after he makes a PRESSURE VOTE against me. in his vote against me, he indicates both chocolate and Sk (confirmed tow, and claimed medic), but says nothign about me. Only mentioning that i'm on his list. HoD does the same thing to xsksc (a pressure vote, he knows it won't gain much momentum) and dodges around the accusation.

xsksc is a hard read, and it's hard to really identify what he is. He's the only other person that could be scum (besides myself, and assuming SK, HoD, and ciry are town).
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 12 2011 03:04 GMT
#799
But protip, we know that of the 4 of us, 3 must be scum right? If you think it's me, despite me doing far more to try and help us than people like sermo, xksccsx, and Drem (who has succeeded pretty well in pushing attention just around him) then by all means go ahead and lose us the game. Or you could do the smart thing and vote for someone who is far more confirmed red than me and make your judgement based on that.


I'm also not the one who spent a day saying "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE STUPID THIS GUY IS OBVIOUSLY RED", and when they flipped green, spent my next few posts telling everyone "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID SHEEP WE LOSE NOW GG"

We all need to agree on a lynch right? At least agree on one you actually know, rather than a half-assed "It all adds up!"


Do we have until tonight or tomorrow night?

Argues he isn't scum.
Knows we need to lynch or we lose.
At the time he last posted there were not enough votes to pass the lynch.
Claims to be unsure of the deadline.
Doesn't vote with us on Sermokala who should essentially be confirmed scum to him before a time he thinks the deadline might be.
MAKES PERFECT SENSE
IMABUNNEH
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom1062 Posts
November 12 2011 03:42 GMT
#800
On November 12 2011 12:04 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:

Argues he isn't scum.
Knows we need to lynch or we lose.
At the time he last posted there were not enough votes to pass the lynch.
Claims to be unsure of the deadline.
Doesn't vote with us on Sermokala who should essentially be confirmed scum to him before a time he thinks the deadline might be.
MAKES PERFECT SENSE


Isn't scum
Read and worked out we need to lynch or lose
Was unsure of the deadline
Double checked the deadline after posting because realised "duh"
Chose not to vote anyone just yet
Still have 24 hours to vote

If I have to vote for Sermo to get a lynch, I will. If we change our mind and decide to pick someone else between now and then, I'll vote for them.

##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement. It's a vote to at least make it clear I'll be voting with what you think is best regardless.
"I think...now? No rival. Me world champion. Yeah. None rival." - oGsMC
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