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Newbie Mini Mafia - Page 39

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Zanfada
Profile Joined May 2010
United States53 Posts
November 11 2011 01:12 GMT
#761
The general consensus is that I am town so I will probably die tonight. I stopped the bandwagon on skram so I am a target. Drem is scum, I am not sure who the other 2 are. Be wary of easy lynches, Scum have been getting us to bandwagon like crazy.

I have to go to class for the next 3 hours. If I am alive after that I will help but if not gl hf, it has been an interesting game.
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
November 11 2011 03:26 GMT
#762
[image loading]

Day 5


Zanfada was beaten to death in the middle of the night. If only he had seen this coming...

Zanfada the townie has been killed.

You have approximately 48 hours to determine the next lynch.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 03:57 GMT
#763
Alright, so now here's the plan:
Medic, roleclaim. Once that happens we have myself, Ciry, and the medic as essentially confirmed townies, leaving us with 3 scum among 4 players. If we can't hit scum with those odds combined with our reads, then goddamn do we deserve to lose hard. If scum counterclaims and we are not sure which one is lying...then we have 2 scum among 3 players to pick from and can ignore the medic situation. Then if scum wants to kill the medic, the only way to do so is to sacrifice their player that counter claimed.

Let's lynch some scum.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 03:59 GMT
#764
And Bunneh, I'm still waiting for your list.
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:02 GMT
#765
Phew. At least we still have the Medic up and alive. HoD, crunch time for us. We have to discuss who's either a suspiciously bad townie or a stealthy scum.

A lot of posts say either xsksc or Sermokala. Sermo's been acting defeatist... while xsksc has been evasive with his answers of scumminess. With respect to Skrammen... well all we know is that if Skrammen's scum, then at least one of his team-mates was willing to bus him, if only for town cred. Drem has been that guy who's either been suspected by people or not suspected, there have been many tells about him, but I cannot place whether they're noob scum or noob town.

To the Medic:

UNLESS you are the one on the lynch block, do NOT state your role. It would be the end of us if we end up with a no-lynch and you revealed for scum to kill.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:05 GMT
#766
Well, HoD, wouldn't having him claim = getting him killed tonight, especially if scum counter with a fake-claim?
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 04:06 GMT
#767
...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 04:07 GMT
#768
We need to lynch every day at this point unless we want to count on the slim chance of a hero medic save. And a medic save just buys us a day of no-lynch at this point. Worth having the confirmed townie over the possibility of another save before he dies.
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:08 GMT
#769
Goddamn. You posted while I was composing that reply, and it's genius. Give me some time to break it down for town what scenarios could happen.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:09 GMT
#770
On November 11 2011 13:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time.

I was emphasizing that we CANNOT no-lynch, and what I was saying was that we cannot afford to mis-lynch. Sorry for the confusion, saw your post and was digesting it.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:17 GMT
#771
Ok here's what happens:

To HoD:

Medic Claims and Scum Fake-Claim (Best solution IMO for them)
2/3 chance of hitting a scum amongst the 3 unknowns (at 4/3)
If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic could get shot or NOT get shot (i.e. Scum takes chances with you or me)
If they shoot Medic (3/2) we can bus fake-claimer (3/1) then they have to shoot one of you or me.
This will have them 1 confirmed townie (You or Me), 1 unconfirmed townie, AND 1 Scum

If they don't shoot medic but shoot 1 of us:
If success (You or Me dies 3/2): We have Medic + You/Me and 1 scum fake claimant, + 1 townie and 1 scum
If fail (You or me survive 4/2): We have Medic + You AND Me, 1 scum fake claimant, 1 townie and 1 scum

Medic Claims and Scum DO NOT Fake-Claim
3/4 chance of getting scum amongst 4 unknowns (at 4/3)
If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic WILL get shot... (3/2)
2 confirmed townies, 1 unknown townie and 2 hidden scum.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:20 GMT
#772
You have the better plan HoD, I wanted to have the medic hide today so we can do the Skrammen tactic again (force people to vote, run them up, if they run up the medic, that exposes the medic and filters out who's definitely scum; if they don't run up the medic, they're forced to bus a townie or one of their own)
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 04:21 GMT
#773
Also, those probabilities are only if we are completely guessing, which I hope we can do better than :-P
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:29 GMT
#774
On November 11 2011 13:21 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Also, those probabilities are only if we are completely guessing, which I hope we can do better than :-P

Maybe we can do a hybrid of your plan and mine, with us forcing people to cast early votes, then have the Medic pop up later in the day to show where scum could potentially have been hiding their votes... Wouldn't that make it more difficult for them to actually make any moves to mislynch?
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 04:30 GMT
#775
It would be 100% WIFOM now that we've said it. They could pile on on townie or scum and we would never know the difference.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 11 2011 04:32 GMT
#776
That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good.
Zanfada
Profile Joined May 2010
United States53 Posts
November 11 2011 04:56 GMT
#777
GL town, and well played mafia
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 04:56 GMT
#778
So, the question is that of a target.

Sermokala and xsksc are as good as any right now.

I'll pick Sermokala.

## Vote Sermokala
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Ciryandor
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3735 Posts
November 11 2011 05:03 GMT
#779
On November 11 2011 13:32 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good.

If you think Sermokala is a bad idea (even if half the town think he's scummy), then just say it. I'm perfectly willing to get behind someone else.
에일리 and 아이유 <3 - O Captain 박재혁 ・゚✧*:・*゚+..。✧・゚:*・..。 ✧・゚ :・゚* ゜・*:・ ✧・゚:・゚:.。 ✧・゚ SPARKULING ・゜・:・゚✧*:・゚✧。*゚+..。 ✧・゚: ✧・゚:*・゜・:・゚✧*::
Skrammen
Profile Joined October 2010
Norway195 Posts
November 11 2011 09:59 GMT
#780
Well, I guess its crunchtime now. I am the medic. I stopped the hit on night2, but fucked it up the other nights.
The muffin mare is seated at the labratory of the utility muffin research kitchen.
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