TL Mafia XLV - Page 29

On September 30 2011 08:11 wherebugsgo wrote:


yeah but his logic for saying that is almost nonexistent.

Just like how you're scum and are trying to get NC lynched.

It almost seems as if you believe Sevryn.

On September 30 2011 07:01 wherebugsgo wrote:
Since Palmar flipped red I'm interested in pursuing these players:

Forumite, risk.nuke, Incognito.

Jackal is still pretty scummy to me as well, but his link to Palmar was weaker than the others.

Also I don't believe either Nisani nor Sinani ever really mentioned Palmar either.

On September 29 2011 08:47 risk.nuke wrote:
prphlz we shouldn't role over, but if we need to lynch someone day 1 we need to make an as educated guess as we can. Random lynching does not favor town since random lynchs mean percentage wise we're always more likely to hit town then scum. In addition scum will always have scum friends to manipulate the outcome so chances of hitting scum like that is even less then the original 1/4.

How long left untill night starts?

On September 29 2011 07:16 risk.nuke wrote:
You all need to adapt Mr. Pinks point of view and realise, you are all scum!

I've played alot of mafia and I don't think it's ever been good for townies to lynch the first day for no reason, Just scum and people who've played to much and gotten bored of anything but immidiate action does that.

On September 30 2011 08:17 sinani206 wrote:
OK, incog told me to shoot prplhz, who I actually am quite suspicious of...

On September 30 2011 08:20 Incognito wrote:


I am interested as to why you are pushing risk.nuke, since as far as I'm concerned, Palmar flipping red says nothing about him. At least not anymore than some of the other voters.

Also why is Forumite scummy?

On September 30 2011 01:20 Forumite wrote:
Both you and Palmar are doing it, making a mockery of your own scumplay, as if that makes it easier to believe you are Town. It doesn´t, it´s a nulltell, because being aware of your metagame allow you to change it.

On September 30 2011 01:41 Forumite wrote:
You both look scummy, I´m just focusing on you for now. My first impression was Curu acting odd, and I´ve more or less ignored Palmar until quite recently.

On September 29 2011 23:23 Forumite wrote:

Good point. I think, that if we must focus on a pair of players and lynch the scummiest, then it´s better to lynch either of Palmar or Curu than Jackal and WBG, but if there is a fifth candidate that appears, then sure, please make that case, just as long as we do two things, stay away from Jackal and WBG for now, and FOCUS the lynch on few and likely candidates, I don´t want to see 20 players voting on 20 candidates, because that´s a game with 19 scum in it.

On the Curu and Palmar, I am leaning toward Curu being the scum. I don´t have a good tell on Palmar (I haven´t analysed Mig´s case yet), while I have a very unhelpfull read on Curu. He´s not playing quite as aggressive as in the last 2 games where I played with him, where he was scum both times, but he´s admitted that he´s aware of how his metagame looked in those games, and how he´s changed it this game. If a metagame analysis doesn´t much help, then the seemingly baseless case on Palmar and his empty posts is what I have to go on. He´s not revealing any proof on why Palmar is scum but still want to lynch him, so either he´s scum or the case was based on only PM-info. I´m leaning towards Scum.

On September 30 2011 01:43 Forumite wrote:

Does this mean you agree with Curu and Mig that Palmar is scum?

On September 30 2011 03:55 Forumite wrote:

Do I really have to explain about metagame again? Basically I´m looking at this game only, ignoring your metagame for once, and then your play feels like you are reluctant to give info and like you are mostly in PM-land. If it was just you, then my gut feeling says that I should keep my eyes on you.

However, Curu might give me bad wibes, but he hasn´t posted lies as part of his analysisas far as I´ve seen, while Palmar is picking and choosing to create an analysis in order to take out a good player. I want to lynch Palmar today, especially if he doesn´t get back and explain himself.

##Unvote Sinani206
##Vote Palmar

On September 30 2011 04:30 Forumite wrote:
I don´t care what they did or did not say about what their PMs said, I couldn´t care less, my reason to vote on Palmar was because of so many saying his analysis was based on false information and cherry-picking metagame.

While him claiming BLU Pyro makes this a bit more confusing, if we can accept that whichever scumslip he posted was a mistake. Is it clear which scumslip he blames the case on him on?

On September 30 2011 08:25 Jackal58 wrote:
Bugs is scum. Any doubt should have evaporated when Palmar flipped.

On September 30 2011 08:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
also why the fuck Incog is obsessed with prpl I have no idea but it really makes no sense to me

On September 30 2011 08:39 Incognito wrote:

Why are you obsessed about forumite/me? You clearly will take the time to write out accusations of Forumite/me/jackal, but refuse to respond to my request about prplhz? Please stop making your "analysis" fit your assumptions while misinterpreting posts. It really isn't that hard to look at prplhz's posts and form an opinion.

On June 21 2011 16:11 Ver wrote:
8) Even if you think someone is mafia, read their posts objectively!!! The most flagrant example of this was when Foolishness completely quit reading Incognito's posts when he started shaping up in day 2, completely missing the gamebreaking case on Ace. Many people also downplayed Dreamflower's major accusation on Ace because they were suspicious of her behavior from early on.

On September 30 2011 08:40 wherebugsgo wrote:


I'm sorry but I don't give my opinions to scum like you.

On September 29 2011 12:28 Incognito wrote:
Dear town, please ignore wherebugsgo. If he starts making sense and stops making a bunch of baseless assumptions maybe I'll start listening to him. Until then, he's just taking up space and has 1/6 of all the posts in this thread. None of them are very interesting.

Also stop using gimmicky words like "OMGUS" and "meta". They're mostly meaningless terms people tack onto their "analyses" to make them look legitimate. I am not going to tolerate this nonsense. Unless you make some real arguments I will just ignore you or squish you like a bug, depending on how ridiculous you are.

Note that there is likely a lot of KP this game. Which should be fun if you are a vig, as there are plenty of nice juicy targets lying around.

Don't be afraid of PMs. As long as you watch yourself and don't do anything stupid, there's no reason not to take advantage of this resource. Can mafia manipulate? If you keep a healthy dose of skepticism and firmly ground your reasoning in logic, it is actually difficult for mafia to manipulate you. In fact, mafia love it when they can see every little thing that is going on in the thread. While PMs have the reputation for being a playground for manipulation and devious scheming, you just have to back off and look at things objectively and you'll be fine.

The main reason PMs are a huge benefit for the town is that it allows us to conceal our actions. In a no-PM game, the mafia have a very good idea of what people are thinking. Generally, most people will be on the wrong track, and occasionally a few will be on the right track. Since no information is withheld from them, they can accurately make informed decisions on night kills and general posting strategy in order to mislead the town and eliminate anyone who could possibly oppose them. If you skillfully use PMs, however, the mafia are unable to accurately judge how active and dangerous you actually are and will be forced to be proactive in PMs and in the thread in order to collect information. Of course, this is inherently uncomfortable for them, as it conflicts their inherent desire to hide. Everyone knows that "mafia start out with an information advantage over the town", but hardly anyone recognizes that mafia needs to maintain that advantage if they want to stay competitive as the game goes longer. Using a healthy dose of PMs makes it that much harder for them to stay on top of the ball. If anything, its easier to manipulate the mafia in PMs than the other way around.

With that said, unless something interesting happens (please feel free to let me know if you find anything), I'll be moving to PM land for now. Be back after the day post.

On September 30 2011 06:21 Incognito wrote:

Here we go again with the baseless assumptions.

Stop using throwing the word "meta" around. Townies are wrong all the time so this should NOT be a consideration for this lynch.

This Palmar lynch is quite interesting right now, although this is nowhere near a "strong case". I am disturbed by the fact that nobody seems to be defending him in thread, (except perhaps wherebugsgo, underhandedly, and Forumite earlier) or is trying to derail the lynch.

The most interesting thing about Palmar is that he doesn't defend himself at all and just claims alignment cop. The other thing is completely ignoring jackal and switching to Curu AFTER I said that the WBG and Jackal lynches are bad. With that said, there are definitely reasons to see why Palmar is town. Since this is quite an uncontested lynch, I'm going to be looking out for those lurkers who jumped on the wagon in the middle section. Erandorr and jcarlsoniv come to mind.

##Vote Erandorr for this post:



Someone please tell me why Erandorr would pop up and pick on DropBear while voting Palmar in the same post.



Palmar is also known for being scummy when town.

On September 30 2011 06:56 Incognito wrote:

Lol.

I hope the first sentence is a joke, as there is no indication that I am "trying to start a bandwagon". I am just trying to point out things that nobody is talking about. Palmar is clearly about to be lynched, so I might as well move on.

There isn't a strong enough case for me to defend him, but he isn't scummy enough for me to jump on the wagon and say "Yes! Plamar is 100% mafia" either.

I never said the second statement. I am saying the case against him is questionable. Everyone is running around saying "Palmar is a great lynch" when it clearly isn't. Palmar isn't playing like his usual town OR usual mafia. Of course, if he survives this lynch I'll go back and examine his past games later when I have time. You all keep screaming "Lynch All Liars" which is one of those other buzzwords that have little meaning.

The 3rd bolded statement is flat out a lie. I never said or even hinted that Palmar is 100% town.

I'm curious that you have never actually contributed anything to the Palmar case except for this. And then you go beserk when I decide to vote for Erandorr instead of Palmar. If this isn't a blatant misrepresentation of my post, I don't know what is. Congratulations, you just became number 1 on my suspect list.

On September 30 2011 09:08 Mig wrote:
Jackal is that serious? If so why would you shoot now and not later in the day when we have more information.