TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 37

On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:

• You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  
• You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown

Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.

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@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.

• Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  
• Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  
• Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.

Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.

• Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  
• Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  
• Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.

This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.

On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] +
Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long:

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Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself.

Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish.

Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity).

First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.

I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.

See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.

You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.

Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown).

Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible:
Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes
Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes

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Reason 2: Active Lurking
Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had.

As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well.

Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking.

The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes.

KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point.

And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now.

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Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge.

That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same.

On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:

• You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  
• You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown

Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.

---

@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.

• Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  
• Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  
• Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.

Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.

• Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  
• Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  
• Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.

This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.