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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 37

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rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
May 05 2011 21:06 GMT
#721
First off,
On May 06 2011 03:38 aidnai wrote:
Also it seems you misunderstood something about PMs -- the scum team can most definitely PM each other.
FFFFUUUUUU. Ok I'll have to give that some more thought. Meanwhile, here's a rehash on the town arguments.

Why Kurumi, and (to a lesser extent) AO are town.
We'll ignore Irish for now. Look at the cases against them. At first glance, they are literally too good. There is so much incriminating behavior and analysis on them but much is the result of bandwagoning and increased focus. Honestly we can probably pick any player in the game right now, tunnel them, and somehow make a case. Some cases will be made easier then others. However, you guys are barely bothering to consider the very plausible alternative - that these guys are noobtowns.

Do you not find it odd that literally every one of their posts have been quoted and tagged as being scum? Do you really believe that it is realistic for us to find scummy behavior in every single post an actual scum makes? These are hardcore cases of tunneling.

You can't cherrypick words out of a person's posting history and make an argument against them. Behavior has to be explained in relation to every other post made by them and around them. The explanation provided thus far is the following: "He is scum and made verbal missteps (and keeps making verbal missteps) because he is bad." I don't buy it. I think the better explanation is: "He is town and made verbal missteps because he isn't thinking as hard about trying to look as innocent as possible."

Why KillerSOS is scum.
I don't think he's as scummy as Chaoser. However, they're probably not both scum so I haven't pushed for a two pronged press in opposite directions. Let's start off by examining something someone else said (since my credibility seems to be shot at this point):
On May 06 2011 00:50 Jackal58 wrote:
Could be all that. Could be just overwhelmed noobs. If Irish is scum he'll out himself. Cthsazsa already has. His response to my poke was over the top and quite extended. His post I poked him about was a pure scum agenda.
His response was pure scum response. He constantly evades the issue I poked him on and shifts it to a not 'knowing the definitions of lurker/inactive"
That's not the item in his post I FoSed him on and I told him that. Yet he still tries to deflect back to that issue. He's scum.
Look at the second bolded part. That is typical noobscumtell - overreacting and defending through quantity, not quality. Jackal is right in that Cthsazsa has exhibited this behavior but so has KillerSOS and to a much greater extent IMO. His posts have acknowledged the viable arguments against him but simply ignored them. Here's the explanation for these guys: "They are scum who overreacted when called out. However, instead of addressing the arguments against them, they try to ignore them like its a non-story but continue to participate in the thread regardless."

The first bolded part is there because I agree. But we'll have more time for that later.

Ultimately, there simply isn't enough time for me to argue a lynch on Chaoser, especially since I have a final tomorrow so won't be as active for the rest of the day. I'll just wait until post-lynch when I can start off every post with "Hey I'm redtooth. I told you so."
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
May 05 2011 21:16 GMT
#722
On May 06 2011 05:59 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 05:48 Kenpachi wrote:
wtf is going on guys
i very konfuzed..

Kurumi is bad holy shit

Lets point at someone else.

On May 06 2011 05:40 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote:
On May 06 2011 03:08 Forumite wrote:
For trying too hard to defend Irish.

##Unote: Kurumi
##Vote: redtooth

(I´m posting in the other thread too, just wanted to be polite and inform people of the voting here too, since it´s easier to see updates in the main thread)
Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote.
Never too early, whether its me or Chaoser.

QFT


There is room for differences of opinion, but I would 100% rather lynch someone useless (kenpachi, takuna, lyter, etc) day 1 as opposed to a vet.

okay.

##vote aidnai
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
May 05 2011 21:17 GMT
#723
On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior.
AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them.

I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.

On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote:
Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why?
We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
May 05 2011 21:20 GMT
#724
On May 06 2011 06:01 VarpuliS wrote:
Just got back from school, damn this thread is moving fast. Kurumi's posting hasn't improved, It seems. What sort of townie plan is based upon being scummy and nonsensical to get the town talking and then saying "Guys, i'm not scum, it was all part of the plan?"
None. But the key word there isn't "townie". It's the word "plan".
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 05 2011 21:24 GMT
#725
On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote:
Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate.


I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi.
t(ツ)t
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 05 2011 21:27 GMT
#726
On May 06 2011 06:20 redtooth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:01 VarpuliS wrote:
Just got back from school, damn this thread is moving fast. Kurumi's posting hasn't improved, It seems. What sort of townie plan is based upon being scummy and nonsensical to get the town talking and then saying "Guys, i'm not scum, it was all part of the plan?"
None. But the key word there isn't "townie". It's the word "plan".

Could you please elaborate? His "plan" was not in any way town friendly, and sounds more like an excuse for his scummy posting earlier than an actual plan.
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2573 Posts
May 05 2011 21:30 GMT
#727
Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:
  • You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  • You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown


Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.
@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.
  • Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  • Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  • Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.
Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.
  • Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  • Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  • Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.
This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.


Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?

I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.

I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS.
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 05 2011 21:31 GMT
#728
On May 06 2011 06:24 Cthsazsa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote:
Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate.


I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi.

He has. Multiple times
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] +
: @ Chaoser – I just read through it again and it has sort of a sharp tone. It’s really late so I can’t be bothered to go back and make it nicer. Just know that it isn’t meant to be a personal attack on your character.

Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long:

FoS: Chaoser

Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself.

Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish.

Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity).

Show nested quote +
Point 1: Irish had an odd reaction to our combined presses.
First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.

Show nested quote +
Points 2 and 3: Irish creates empty content then chainsaw defends Kurumi by attacking AO.
I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.

Show nested quote +
Point 4: “He is wishy-washy”
See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.

Show nested quote +
Redtooth’s Defense, Point 5: He is very uninterested in the game right now
You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.

Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown).

Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible:
Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes
Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes

Reason 2: Active Lurking
Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had.

As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well.

Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking.

The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes.

KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point.

And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now.

Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge.

That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same.


+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:
  • You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  • You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown


Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.
@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.
  • Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  • Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  • Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.
Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.
  • Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  • Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  • Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.
This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.

For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 05 2011 21:33 GMT
#729
On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior.
AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them.

I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.

Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote:
Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why?
We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches.

Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now?
:3
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
May 05 2011 21:33 GMT
#730
On May 06 2011 00:30 chaoser wrote:
Go reread KillerSOS' posts. People think he is scummy because of his line "Why would I want to be lynched, I don't want to die." Go reread his posts and decide if he's just a simple newbie or red. Either way, we can discuss his lynch tomorrow, after the night.
Wtf. I agree with you here that he's scummy. The only reason why I'm not pressing him right now is because you two are mutually exclusive and I think you're scumminess outweighs his scumminess.

On May 06 2011 00:30 chaoser wrote:
Rest of post.
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

My question to you and the rest of town is this: What happens if Kurumi flips green? Does Irish get the pardon? Does Chaoser become suspect #1? It seems that none of the "vets" are advocating for the Kurumi lynch except Chaoser so either he is really dropping the ball on the reads or he is playing the attack-noobtown game.

Regardless, with the way town is sheeping, Irish and I are pretty fucked if Kurumi actually does flip red so we won't have to worry about that. Kitaman wants to see my birth certificate, someone else was attacking me for making a focus-the-town longpost, I am accused of playing safe, nobody seems to give me any trust at all, etc etc. Undoubtly I am playing at the top of my game haha.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Kurumi
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Poland6130 Posts
May 05 2011 21:37 GMT
#731
On May 06 2011 06:30 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:
  • You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  • You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown


Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.
@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.
  • Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  • Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  • Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.
Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.
  • Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  • Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  • Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.
This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.


Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?

I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.

I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS.

Playing Mafia Hero would not benefit him in any way - it is obvious and You already started accusing him being scum. If I flip town,Your entire mindset and things You knew so far are DESTROYED. This is why Your attack is weak. Also think about,what would be the sense of trying to save Your mafia allies who failed horribly? Well,to make Yourself exposed obviously NOT. So far I am happy with my plan all working out,a bit too fast,but it is better than no response,duh.
I wonder why people defend Chaoser so much but attack redtooth so hard.
I work alone. // Visit TL Mafia subforum!
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 05 2011 21:44 GMT
#732
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste?
:3
Kurumi
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Poland6130 Posts
May 05 2011 21:47 GMT
#733
On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste?

You're already wasting Day 1 lynch,so who cares.
I work alone. // Visit TL Mafia subforum!
PaqMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1475 Posts
May 05 2011 21:49 GMT
#734
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
Kitaman wants to see my birth certificate,



Lol
t(ツ)t
Kurumi
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Poland6130 Posts
May 05 2011 21:51 GMT
#735
On May 06 2011 06:49 Cthsazsa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
Kitaman wants to see my birth certificate,



Lol


Yes,I do agree with Your analysis on birth certificate,but could You elaborate what Lol has to do with this? Do You think Lol is scum?
I work alone. // Visit TL Mafia subforum!
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
May 05 2011 21:51 GMT
#736
On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior.
AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them.

I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.

On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote:
Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why?
We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches.

Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now?
No it is tunneling when you continually misinterpreting what I said instead of objectively reading it and realizing that it is referring to an era long past. Where do I say you're right?

On May 06 2011 06:24 Cthsazsa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote:
Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate.
I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi.
I've written a novel on it. It's on the NYTimes bestsellers list.

On May 06 2011 06:30 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.

...

Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?

I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.

I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS.
I've provided plenty of reason for it. Less confident about Kurumi but still think he leans town nonetheless. The reason is that I thought he burned out after being pressed so hard and that fit his persona of being a slightly immature ADD townie. Instead he came back and spammed with a vengeance. Still fits his persona but a little less so.

And you may be "to a lesser extent town" but you're town nonetheless. What are you complaining about?

On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste?
It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either:
- 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.
- 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 05 2011 21:52 GMT
#737
On May 06 2011 06:51 Kurumi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:49 Cthsazsa wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
Kitaman wants to see my birth certificate,



Lol


Yes,I do agree with Your analysis on birth certificate,but could You elaborate what Lol has to do with this? Do You think Lol is scum?

is this language barrier or wtf? o.O
d=(^_^)z
Varpulis
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States2517 Posts
May 05 2011 21:53 GMT
#738
I think it's a joke.
For he is the Oystermeister, lord of all the oysters.
Kurumi
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Poland6130 Posts
May 05 2011 21:55 GMT
#739
On May 06 2011 06:53 VarpuliS wrote:
I think it's a joke.

I think we shouldn't joke about Lol being scum. I know birth certificate behaved weird,but.. it does not make any sense!

+ Show Spoiler +
It is a joke!
I work alone. // Visit TL Mafia subforum!
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 05 2011 21:56 GMT
#740
On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste?
It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either:
- 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.
- 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.[/QUOTE]
Where does 70/30 come from?
:3
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