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Alright, so bashful was shot. There's one of three reasons he got shot:
1. He was on to the mafia, and they decided to shut him up.
2. Mafia had a blue read on him, possibly a vigilante/cop/medic.
3. Mafia wants to set everyone on the wrong trail and purposely shot someone suspecting someone else that's town.
We can't figure out what mafia's motives are, only that bashful was shot so to speculate on why mafia shot him has almost no meaning at this point.
This is mainly based on the fact that he actively seems to try and put pressure on lurkers, while scum would be fine with lurkers because it means less people analyzing, so less chance to be found.
That's just a whole bunch of WIFOM, what if he was mafia trying to be townie so he was more active and pushing the inactives/lurkers to post more? We can't tell either way so there's no point in speculation. Here's a legit question for you sneezy, what's your top 3 scum reads and why?
@happy1
Not quite sold on the tiberius lynch yet since doc and others have been wishy washy as well. At least he's contribution and posting a lot, making it easier to catch the mistakes that he will make in the future. if he is mafia. that much easier. I say we vote for a flip tonight and lynch tiberius day 3 for a flip to see if he's mafia or not. That way we get a real handle on the situations (ie. sneezy coming out randomly to support tiberius, previous connections to tiberius from augustus and bashful, etc.). In this situation, lynching for information is actually important since we get a whole WEALTH of information due to the no-flip setup in place. For now I want to pressure more people to post. Dopey hasn't said shit, pretty much posting "ok, i think it's a good idea not to role claim" and "I'll contribute more on the next vote" when he still hasn't said anything, which is pretty much true for like 80% of the players in this game -_-. I don't want to have to deal with an end game LYLO situation of 5 people were 3 of them haven't contributed to discussion, has never actually taken a stance on anything, and has basically had no impact on the game.
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Why do people think bashful was vig'd? I think that's a pretty out there claim...
Scum aren't lurking. When two intelligent random townies argue, eventually they realize to themselves that the other isn't proving to be anti-town, it's just the natural course of things. I don't post a lot because I am keeping my eyes open and waiting for an opportunity to contribute, rather then blabbing on hoping my posts look townie. I'm trying not to get hit, and I won't let town lynch me (try me).
On point, one of tiberius and augustus would be scum. When people are having a discussion, and it is obviously going no-where in terms of content, then you have scum trying to pass off as town. That has those two written all over it. I haven't seen the dramatic fashion of posts from other players. They seem borderline desperate. It could be the work of a passionate but useless townie, but not both of them. Glad augustus was lynched, and it would be in town's best interest to lynch off tiberius now. Hope your happy (OOH SNAP)
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On April 19 2011 01:36 tiberius1 wrote:
I didn't. I'm straight townie.
My thoughts on last night: I think mafia extended a bit too far here. I think that they are trying to direct town attention on me. What other reason would they have for killing the player who posted a strong scum read on me immediately after he posted it? Bashful was an easy kill; he was a lurker with brief, extremely well thought out and constructive posts, which is a pretty obvious blue tell. He also had the additional benefit of having an FOS on me which draws suspicion to myself as well.
Check the bold, answered your own question.
If I were mafia I would have hit virtually anybody else (ie, happy, or another high-participating player) because killing bashful just draws attention to myself. But if I were mafia and I was trying to draw further suspicion on the scummiest looking player on the board (seriously, one sentance and you guys jumped all over me) who is also one of the biggest active contributors to the thread, I would do exactly what mafia did last night.
No, I'm convinced that happy is just jumping to the first logical conclusion he can reach, which is that I am mafia and I killed bashful because he was getting close to nailing me. Kind of a stupid leap of logic though; if I was mafia, do you really think I would be that stupid?
Not particularly- if you read, you'd notice I agree with Bashful's assesment of your posts and thus placed my vote on you. Believing you are scum, its perfectly reasonable to ask why you killed ol' Bashful.
Show nested quote +On April 18 2011 17:27 sneezy1 wrote:
Alright, so bashful was shot. There's one of three reasons he got shot:
1. He was on to the mafia, and they decided to shut him up.
2. Mafia had a blue read on him, possibly a vigilante/cop/medic.
3. Mafia wants to set everyone on the wrong trail and purposely shot someone suspecting someone else that's town.
Sneezy thinks it's more likely to be 3. Tiberius1's posting doesn't really look very blue-ish to Sneezy so he's guessing town. This is mainly based on the fact that he actively seems to try and put pressure on lurkers, while scum would be fine with lurkers because it means less people analyzing, so less chance to be found. He also generally gives me a town vibe with his other posts, but not really that serious a town vibe.
Woud love a reaction from Tiberius here, or if it was a vigilante shooting he really should be claiming here so the medic knows his shot saved a townie. I'm a little confused why everyone thinks that this was a vig shot? There was only one kill. That means that either medics protected the other kill, they hit a vet, or mafia only has one kill. I'm leaning towards the third, since the chances of a medic randomly protecting one of the exact people that mafia was hitting in a 12 man game are like, 1 in 10. I suppose they could have hit a vet though... Hmm... are vets told when they are hit?Also, if you are vig, and you didn't kill bashful, do not claim. Revealing yourself at this point is just asking for being killed. Medic should also probably lay low for a bit so that they aren't killed/roleblocked. If you did kill bashful though, theres no reason not to claim since your role is now useless to the town anyway.
If a vig burned their shot and their target did not die, its pretty smart to claim. With a doctor, we get a confirmed townie. Also, once a vig shoots they're just a blue anyway. But I don't believe we have this situation anyhow.
Sneezy, you are still suspicious to me. Who thinks that lurking and acting scummy as hell the first day is a good way to get trusted by town?! I want sneezy to post a scumlist.
Also, is it just me or do sneezys posts look like they are written by two people? Sneezy refers to himself in the third person, but also uses phrases like "I" and "we."
Caligula, cladius, and doc need to give us their thoughts on the lynch.
Bolded a bit there; any reason why this matters? =/
On April 19 2011 04:05 dopey1 wrote:
I don't post a lot because I am keeping my eyes open and waiting for an opportunity to contribute, rather then blabbing on hoping my posts look townie. I'm trying not to get hit, and I won't let town lynch me (try me).
Boy this rustles my jimmies. Especially that last sentence.
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Also, lets get a running tally:
All in favour of using our 1shot ability tonight?
Aye
Aye:
Happy
Nay:
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Aye. Writing down my thoughts on everyone right now but it's late and i'm going to sleep soon. Day ends at.....22:00 KST, doesn't it? I'll post it all before then, around 18:00 KST or something.
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Aye
I'm just not feeling it on tiberius. He would have to be a pretty nooby mafia/GF to ask to be checked and I don't think thats the case. His posts are indicative of someone who has actually played a few games.
I feel grumpy is almost certainly town. His style of posting doesn't ding mafia to me at all.
Happy I'm unsure about. I felt he was buddying me somewhat earlier on which always sets alarm bells off for me. However he has been giving useful thoughts/advice etc. I certainly wouldn't be lynching him today but I have an eye out.
With everyone else, I'm having a real time trying to find anything scummy. Lurking is about the only thing I have to go on, apart from gut instinct. My gut is telling me doc, but I don't know why.
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Aye
In any case it would be nice to know if we were at least on the right track or if we have to completely reevaluate how we are playing the game at the moment.
With everyone else, I'm having a real time trying to find anything scummy. Lurking is about the only thing I have to go on, apart from gut instinct. My gut is telling me doc, but I don't know why
Gutreads are not ALWAYS everything you should go on.
If i gutread all of my reads and just said that then id mislynch 85% of the time. This is especially true in a game such as this with smurfing removing meta-gaming from the equasion, gutreads are quite abit stronger when backed up by playing with someone in a few games so you get used to them.
That being said im still unsure about happy but yeah i guess i was sorta tunneling after he voted me :/.
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On April 19 2011 09:27 doc1 wrote:AyeIn any case it would be nice to know if we were at least on the right track or if we have to completely reevaluate how we are playing the game at the moment. Show nested quote +With everyone else, I'm having a real time trying to find anything scummy. Lurking is about the only thing I have to go on, apart from gut instinct. My gut is telling me doc, but I don't know why Gutreads are not ALWAYS everything you should go on. If i gutread all of my reads and just said that then id mislynch 85% of the time. This is especially true in a game such as this with smurfing removing meta-gaming from the equasion, gutreads are quite abit stronger when backed up by playing with someone in a few games so you get used to them. That being said im still unsure about happy but yeah i guess i was sorta tunneling after he voted me :/.
I'm rereading and rereading and hoping to come up with something more solid on ANYONE but theres fuck all being said.
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On April 19 2011 09:29 caligula1 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 09:27 doc1 wrote:AyeIn any case it would be nice to know if we were at least on the right track or if we have to completely reevaluate how we are playing the game at the moment. With everyone else, I'm having a real time trying to find anything scummy. Lurking is about the only thing I have to go on, apart from gut instinct. My gut is telling me doc, but I don't know why Gutreads are not ALWAYS everything you should go on. If i gutread all of my reads and just said that then id mislynch 85% of the time. This is especially true in a game such as this with smurfing removing meta-gaming from the equasion, gutreads are quite abit stronger when backed up by playing with someone in a few games so you get used to them. That being said im still unsure about happy but yeah i guess i was sorta tunneling after he voted me :/. I'm rereading and rereading and hoping to come up with something more solid on ANYONE but theres fuck all being said.
Im almost to the point where im scrutinizing every word but thats REALLY grasping at straws >_<
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Augustus1 & Claudius1 your thoughts on the current situation? How do you feel about Bashful's death? Stance on Tiberius? What is in a wonder ball?
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Actually, I agree
Aye
if there's a vigi, they shoot him, we vote for flip. If we get 1 in the day post, then either Augustus or Tiberius was mafia. If we get 2 then we have to start suspecting happy for pulling our chains around for hunting fake ghosts.
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Aye
I don't feel that there are any especially good lynches right now. I still heavily dislike how sneezy has been playing this game.
On April 19 2011 09:37 happy1 wrote:
Augustus1 & Claudius1 your thoughts on the current situation? How do you feel about Bashful's death? Stance on Tiberius? What is in a wonder ball?
Augustus is dead. It would be nice to hear from Claudius, but as long as he gets in before the lynch his activity level would be consistent. But even during his brief period of activity he didn't contribute much aside from defending himself. If he shows up, he'd better have something good to say.
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On April 19 2011 09:50 sleepy1 wrote:
Actually, I agree
Aye
if there's a vigi, they shoot him, we vote for flip. If we get 1 in the day post, then either Augustus or Tiberius was mafia. If we get 2 then we have to start suspecting happy for pulling our chains around for hunting fake ghosts.
Why would Tiberius be mafia?
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On April 19 2011 10:03 grumpy1 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 09:50 sleepy1 wrote:
Actually, I agree
Aye
if there's a vigi, they shoot him, we vote for flip. If we get 1 in the day post, then either Augustus or Tiberius was mafia. If we get 2 then we have to start suspecting happy for pulling our chains around for hunting fake ghosts. Why would Tiberius be mafia?
That is, why would he be dead?
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On April 19 2011 10:07 grumpy1 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 10:03 grumpy1 wrote:On April 19 2011 09:50 sleepy1 wrote:
Actually, I agree
Aye
if there's a vigi, they shoot him, we vote for flip. If we get 1 in the day post, then either Augustus or Tiberius was mafia. If we get 2 then we have to start suspecting happy for pulling our chains around for hunting fake ghosts. Why would Tiberius be mafia? That is, why would he be dead?
aren't we shooting him? happy thinks there's a vigi and he wants him to use his 1 shot on Tiberius? Well I guess it won't just be between tiberius and augustus but against augustus, tiberius and whomever we lynch today.
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I still think lynching him after using our night ability is the best since we can 100% be sure of his alignment but a vigi shot on him would be ok with me too. I'd rather lynch doc, he's posted a whole lot of nothings in his posts.
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On April 19 2011 09:59 grumpy1 wrote:
Augustus is dead.
Ah yes he was lynched.
Hrm well I guess I'll continue my train of thought since its only one person instead of two who hasn't checked in.
On April 19 2011 01:36 tiberius1 wrote:
My thoughts on last night: I think mafia extended a bit too far here. I think that they are trying to direct town attention on me. What other reason would they have for killing the player who posted a strong scum read on me immediately after he posted it? Bashful was an easy kill; he was a lurker with brief, extremely well thought out and constructive posts, which is a pretty obvious blue tell. He also had the additional benefit of having an FOS on me which draws suspicion to myself as well.
If I were mafia I would have hit virtually anybody else (ie, happy, or another high-participating player) because killing bashful just draws attention to myself. But if I were mafia and I was trying to draw further suspicion on the scummiest looking player on the board (seriously, one sentance and you guys jumped all over me) who is also one of the biggest active contributors to the thread, I would do exactly what mafia did last night.
I'm the only person voting you.
If scum were going to set you up, I believe they would be doing more to push your lynch; off the top of my head other than me, you've just got a fence sitter who says your scummy and blue. That doesn't scream like a setup to me.
Also, I've never particularly fancied the "Well if I was mafia I would have..." arguements due to the fact they assume you are telling the truth and can be trusted.
As for why they didn't shoot me, I'd like to be conceited and think they would assume doc would be on me or there is some other reason it would be hard to get rid of me 
Your post just feels like a lot of deflection and mud-slinging:
No, I'm convinced that happy is just jumping to the first logical conclusion he can reach, which is that I am mafia and I killed bashful because he was getting close to nailing me. Kind of a stupid leap of logic though; if I was mafia, do you really think I would be that stupid?
Now that I've got that out, I need to get around to that PBP reread and revaluate my list before I get to strung up over Tiberius.
On April 19 2011 10:16 sleepy1 wrote:
aren't we shooting him? happy thinks there's a vigi and he wants him to use his 1 shot on Tiberius? Well I guess it won't just be between tiberius and augustus but against augustus, tiberius and whomever we lynch today.
I like to cover all the bases so if there is a vig I've been suggesting things.
In my honest opinion, I don't think vig shooting is helpful at all due to the fact we can't nolynch.
Also, vig shooting would give us 3 people to have to look between; optimally, having only 2 people dead in case we get a result of 1 is better. If we get a 1 result with 3 dead bodies, its more of a bugger.
On April 19 2011 01:36 tiberius1 wrote:
Analysis on doc coming up after class here. Might not be done until late tonight.
I await this eagerly.
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Aye
On April 19 2011 09:37 happy1 wrote:
Augustus1 & Claudius1 your thoughts on the current situation?
I think that there isn't a lot being posted, not that I'm helping. But even now, look at the vote counts and its pitiful. I was hoping to see what others had pulled out of the thread before I voted. But it seems like there is nothing to look at, or very little.
How do you feel about Bashful's death?
I think the mafia thought that Bashful was an experienced player, and killed him off for it. They can still meta game even if they aren't supposed to...
Stance on Tiberius?
I thought he was scum when I read through day 1 quickly. But I'm not 100% sure, was a gut read. Reading through his posts he does try (or seems to try) to contribute. As well, the Bashful killing does pressure Tiberius.
Although it could be a mafia ploy to get pressure off Tiberius for a long time. Kill bashful, have us look at Tiberius. Move off of Tiberius, and make him look more town.
Grasping at straws, but its all we have up till now.
What is in a wonder ball?
Magic and Rainbows.
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On April 19 2011 01:36 tiberius1 wrote:
Analysis on doc coming up after class here. Might not be done until late tonight.
hmm...maybe doc's not mafia after all...
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On April 19 2011 10:47 sleepy1 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2011 01:36 tiberius1 wrote:
Analysis on doc coming up after class here. Might not be done until late tonight. hmm...maybe doc's not mafia after all...
Well if he posts it I may have to wait till tommorrow to rip into it as god knows who late its going to be and I have to get up early tommorrow :/
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EPT
