EPTTL Mafia XXXVIII
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 10 2011 02:28 Mr. Wiggles wrote: The thing about the pardoner is that he better have a damned good reason when he pardons someone if it's not town consensus. He can only pardon once. If he does that randomly when town is voting out a scummy player, like the GF in your example, then we just caught two scum anyways, because the pardoner's revealed himself as anti-town, and the person he saved was already the lynch target. Another danger a mafia pardoner could pose is that if suspicion falls on them in a previous day, they could shut down the lynch at the very start of the day before any real discussion has begun. Of course, it places them under immense suspicion but it also takes away a valuable town lynch and gives the mafia a free round of hits. Furthermore, since the pardoner/mayor knows who the bodyguards are, meaning that the mafia could hit those roles easier. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 10 2011 18:25 urashimakt wrote: Well, seeing as Mafia can only PM Mafia and no one else is allowed to PM, I'd be super impressed if he managed to somehow backstab us by allying with the Mafia. There is always the possibility that he is a mafia pretending to be an assassin in order to win himself an elected position on the merits of the arguments he listed earlier. But I'm not particularly inclined to this view because as of right now because that strategy would be exceedingly risky at the very beginning of the game. If we were to elect Protactinium, at the very least, we would make sure that a clear non-mafia were elected for the time being. However, I am concerned about his commitment to being pro-town if elected. From his own admission, he says that: Obviously, if I lose the election, theres no way I can help town without dying. Assassins aren't bulletproof nor do they have extra lives in this game, so if I try to be pro-town, mafia will just shoot me or roleblock me, nullifying me completely. Thats 100% certain death for me. This means that I'm forced to ally with the mafia. And that's relatively easy for me to do. The terms are simple, they don't roleblock me or shoot me, and I don't analyze them or shoot them. Played correctly, Assassins aren't a huge threat to either Mafia or town, nor are they gamebreaking like a lategame SK. Of course, what should happen if he were to be elected, and both bodyguards were to die? The chances are slim of course, but the fact is that he could switch sides at critical moments (i.e. when he is one of the deciding votes between the mafia and town). In the early game, Protactinium would definitely be town-sided, but resulting changes to the circumstances of the game could radically change his allegiances. Oh and lastly, I don't think he would be able to 'ally with mafia' like he claims if he weren't elected since another assassin would take him out to further their own chances at victory. Like other people of reiterated, I would recommend that the pardoner would be the best position for Protactinium on the basis that an assassin would have little reason to ever pardon someone, but at the same time, we have a confirmed non-mafia who is able to give good analysis of player behavior and who will survive for the later stages of the game. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 04:56 Pandain wrote: But this is the PANDAIN PLAN 1.Proctat reveal the two bodyguards. 2. Watchers are HEAVILY advised to visit these people. Obviously there may not be a watcher(even though there likely is.) But the most important thing is that the threat remains the same. This makes it very risky for the other assasins to even attempt to shoot the bodyguards for fear of losing. They will most likely have to wait a couple days, during which we shall have ample time to find them. Proctat will be helping town while still fulfilling his role condition. There is no reason not to vote for him. Sure, this will keep the bodyguards alive and keep the the people elected alive, but it will definitely take away the usefulness of the watcher, since the mafia/assassins' will be guaranteed to steer clear of them. Furthermore, if the mafia/assassins were to accidentally hit the watchers, the following turn we could be pretty sure that the bodyguards would be dead as well since they've been outed. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 05:13 chaoser wrote: Sup Trancestorm, nice to know you've been lurking and reading all of the stuff but saying nothing about it. What do you think about Prot's campaign? Kita? DrH? Hey, I just got on the thread and read all the stuff, and Pandian's points were the first I had something to respond to. Personally, as I said earlier, I feel uneasy about Prot's campaign because of his potential for swapping allegiances later in the game. The other candidate's I don't have any clear reads on since there is absolutely no and since we can't confirm anything. I'm inclined to believe that Pandian is the detective from my personal gut feeling from his original post though, even though I don't think his idea to reveal himself was all the great for the town. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 05:24 Pandain wrote: Please explain. As I see right now, Proctat's only allegience is to himself. But we also hold him by the strings: We can lynch him if he tries to go against us. Right now Proctat will be: 1.Sharing dt results. 2.Giving vital information and using his experience to help lynch correctly. 3.Confirm the two bodyguards. I explained in a post that I made much earlier that Prot has the potential to change his allegiance at any time. At moments when the mafia/town counts become more even, Prot could throw his weight behind an assassin suspect rather than a mafia suspect in hopes of winning the game immediately. None of this will happen in the first few days of course, but the fact that it could happen combined with the fact that he can kill without repercussion (or recognition) makes me uneasy about electing him. Electing a pro-town candidate will guarantee that the elected officials are constantly hunting for mafia rather than looking to further their own win-condition. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 07:46 Kavdragon wrote: My current suspect list is Protactinium Chaoser DrHelevetica Chaoser gets added because he was sheeping behind some really bad ideas, adding to the flames of arguments that shouldn't have ever started, and acting generally scummy. I have no analysis yet, so it still a lowish level read, but it's still a read. Oddly enough, GMarshal has not shown himself to be clearly townie to me, and I'm not sure why. It just seems like he could be repeating his townie meta, or it could just be that I'm really used to it being super obvious that he is town. Not a FoS yet, but something that I think is odd. He usually has plans, and that's strangely missing. You'd think that he'd have them since he's running for mayor. Odd. I think the support for GMarshal is a bit suspicious at the moment. Everyone seems to justify their vote for GMarshal on the basis that he is the most pro-town and that argument is thrown around alot. But it seems like alot of people are sheeping to his side without alot of justification for why. Personally, I think that Dr. H has been the most town to me because of his aggressive approach. I don't think any mafia would want to make that aggressive of a start at the beginning of a game - they'd rather appear more passive to the town. Would a mafia risk making that many contradictions at the beginning of a game? Dr. H's accusations seem a bit erratic and scattergun and may cause trouble later down the road, in my opinion he is the most town out of all the candidates making him the safest choice for me. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 08:06 Jackal58 wrote: Sorry about that. I was going to ask TranceStorm if he would be more comfy if people voted GM because he was scummy. Sorry, I don't fully understand your question. My argument isn't that any of the candidates are particularly scummy, my argument is that Dr. H is the least scummy to me because of the reasons that I had listed earlier and I wanted to hear more people explain their votes. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 23:03 Mig wrote: Right I don't know about anyone else for sure all I said was that I know that I am green obviously and I made a guess that there's a decent chance ON is green just because if he were red I figured he would have fingered me as red. Just reading over everything, but if OriginalName turns up red, that points out a much better chance that Mig is green. Why? Because what mafia would give a detailed analysis of their own teammate on day 1? Mafia want to take suspicion off of their own teammates and any analysis someone else whether guilty or innocent would warrant more suspicion. Its far more likely that scum would give their analysis on players who they know are not scum before putting analysis on people in their team in later rounds. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 11 2011 23:53 redFF wrote: At the time Mig was getting a good amount of heat for DrH, ON "analysed" him with no real content and concluded that he was green. The only think i can take from is that ON doesn't want people thinking Mig is red Ok, reading back to when ON gave his analysis, I am going to have to agree with you here. Ignore the analysis I gave earlier, I had forgotten that Dr. H had been putting pressure on Mig. But, I don't believe that if ON turns up guilty that we have a conclusive pin on Mig. My gut instinct is that Mig is town. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 12 2011 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: It's kind of a truce thing. If mafia starts killing off bodyguards then I know either A) Pardoner is scum or B) One of the bodyguards is scum and makes scumhunting considerably easier for me. Vice-versa for the pardoner as well. First of all, the bodyguards cannot be scum as they are drawn from random townies. Second of all, the danger of the mafia knowing who the bodyguards is not the threat to the bodyguards themselves and the elected officials, but rather are through the fact the mafia knows what people are investigative blues (watcher/detective/tracker) and therefore narrows down their search. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Pointless, since both the mayor and pardoner are immune to night actions. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 13 2011 07:29 Jackal58 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2011 07:08 Rean wrote: What he's saying is that lynching ON might be a gamble, but it's one with a high reward. Either we kill him, he flips red and we've got a few red buddies to point out, or he flips green and then people like RedFF will start to be very red. A risk that might just be worth taking, unless there's another good option. Lynching for information is like fucking for virginity. Lol yes, that is one way to put it, but the information we could get from lynching ON is extremely limited. If he were to show up red, the people that he might implicate would be Mig and possibly GMarshal as well due to their association with him, but those links are still relatively weak. You'd need more evidence then 'association with a mafia' to justify a lynch in the later days. If ON turns up green, we get just about zero information since a ton of people have already suspected him of being mafia. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
If you are actually the Detective, why would you claim? Why not simply push for a lynch on Coagulation using the reasons you have discovered without revealing that you are actually the detective? Now clearly the roleblocker will block you making you relatively ineffective. Is this because you don't want the other assassins' to hit you next turn or because you want medic/watcher on you next night? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 13 2011 14:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Note who didn't get hit: bumatlarge chaoser kitaman27 jackal58 aidnai redFF all potential power players or people who had very strong opinions/cases on day 1 that avoided death during the night. hopefully DT's got a hit last night and there will be a strong push for a good lynch today based off that. I would think any of these people would make great investigation targets. Surprised at the choice of darmousseh, otherwise I'm not that shocked at the hit choice. If I'm mafia I'm thinking I want to take out big town talkers though. Don't wanna WIFOM about it too much, but anyone who was a "big town target" that didn't get hit (there were no missed hits) is worth an analysis and a dt check. Its equally likely though, that the mafia knew that these people were most likely to be protected because of their strong opinions/cases on day 1. Therefore, they chose to hit people who they thought would not be medic protected - explaining why they did not double-up on any particular person. Just because these people did not get hit, does not mean anything particular in my opinion. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
From my cursory glance at the thread, no one has seemed to step up and deny that Serejai is probably a mafia, but everyone seems to glide over the issue to focus on other lynch targets. I think this is currently misguided, we can't know for certain if any of those people are mafia or not so we should wait for a few more night actions. On the other hand, we have an almost guaranteed mafia in the form of Serejai. The likelihood that Serejai is mafia is far greater than that of any of the other players, each of whom seems to have lots of supporters and detractors. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 15 2011 08:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I think Serajai is definitely town aligned. I have an issue with Serajai that must be resolved with the mod first though. Really? If you read his posts, they just seem to ignore all possible notions of logic meaning that he is deliberately putting on this facade of being new. No person would ever say that they believe that someone is correct because their icon is that of a DT unless they were deliberately acting in an illogical fashion. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 15 2011 09:08 Protactinium wrote: Please read my post. You're just ignoring logic and are building cases off of false assumptions. You were elected based on the premise that you think for yourself and don't sheep town. But clearly you are being tricked by GMarshal's and others' statements and have not taken a step back to evaluate the situation objectively. Let me prove it to you. Right now, you just stated 4 possibilities in your plan: However, there is 1 option you left out. Lets go with your stubborn assumption that I am not a DT, and that I in fact do not know Coagulation's role. If I am not DT, then you forgot the option that Coagulation is actually the Godfather. In this case, Scenario 1 would be false, and would work perfectly for the mafia. GMarshal would not be forced to bus him and will claim that Coagulation is a Vet. The other DTs will stay silent because they have no reason to believe that GMarshal is lying. Thus, Coagulation is saved for another day, town thinks he is "confirmed", and GMarshal is "proven" to be the DT. You did not consider this situation, which shows that you subconsciously believe my DT claim. I have already proven why GMarshal is blatantly lying about being DT. Please evaluate this situation objectively before jumping off a cliff in an attempt to be the town hero. You're trying to convolute things too much. The simplest answer is: I'm a DT, I checked Coagulation, and he is red. But Protact, that scenario is not possible, if you are a DT. If you were a DT and Coag were the godfather then he would not have shown up red to you. The very fact that you are considering this case means that you cannot be the DT. It is a valid point that the town should definitely consider though. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 15 2011 09:28 Rean wrote: Except TranceStorm didn't even fucking read the first 4 words. "IF I'M NOT DT". Hmm. I guess that takes away from the validity of my points, but I still don't trust that Proact is the actual DT since there have been slip-ups. I have to go right now, so I'm going to vote for Coagulation. The arguments made against him were at the very least stronger than the ones made about LSB. LSB has been suspicious, but I suppose that we can clear him up with the incoming DT checks. Furthermore, I'm also heavily suspicious of Coag from his slip-ups in his claims earlier when he claimed vig and then vet (could have been a typo, but it tips the scales in his favor for me). | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On the topic of the lynch for today, I think we should wait for more solid accusations from perhaps what the detective/tracker/watchers discovered. Since we do have a full 48 hours, we should let those reports take precedence right now over our suspicions. The fact that the mafia only has 2 kp means that we should take everything a bit slower since we do have so many chances to catch them. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 17 2011 00:18 Conversion wrote: Woulf it even be detrimental to mislynch today? If not, I'll be fine getting lynched since Barundar seems to believe that I'm mafia because of my play, regardless of what I tell him. I'm detrimental to town at this point and I don't even know how to make a post without someone analyzing me/questioning me. If you guys don't care about lynching mafia (as we lost quite a few over the past day/night), might as well lynch a lurker, like me. But then again, lynching me gets town nowhere, but whatever. I find your responses to being put under pressure very troubling though. In the very beginning, you seemed to be more active and willing to question the motives of other players. After Barundur started to put pressure on you, you put up the excuse that you were new and wanted to avoid being seen as scum repeatedly - until we've reached this moment where you are basically saying "lynch me, but you'll regret it!". To me, the fact that you have withdrawn as the game moved on is highly suspicious especially since each post seems to be a justification as to why you shouldn't have to make contentful posts in the future. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
So there were at least two roleblocks tonight. Which is strange considering that (as far as I know), Barundur was the only one who said that he was roleblocked after night 1. Did someone not claim that they were roleblocked on day 2? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
jaminz is a much stronger candidate than kevconsim for me. Reading from his previous games, his contribution always seems to be rather limited which makes him an extremely uncertain lynch target in my opinion. On the issue of the roleblocks, I think we should wait another day before we make any judgments on whether m0nster or Barundur are lying. It seems especially strange that the number of people roleblocked should go from 1 to 2 (it seems far more likely for 2 people to have been roleblocked on the first night and only 1 on the 2nd night considering the collection of hits between the assassins). If there are indeed 2 roleblockers, why would they choose to not roleblock on the first day? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 18 2011 08:09 kitaman27 wrote: It's possible they had a strong blue read on one of their night one targets, like Pandain, and both hit and roleblocked someone. I had missed that option, but it does seems unlikely - especially on night 1. Considering that vigilantes could not shoot yet, the only reason why they would hit and roleblock the same person was if they suspected that their target was a medic (since the actions of dead detectives/trackers/watchers are useless if they are dead). But the reasoning for roleblocking a medic on night 1 seems incredibly faulty since the chance that the mafia would hit someone medic protected on night 1 was very slim. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 18 2011 08:20 AirbladeOrange wrote: I stated earlier that all of jaminz's "scummy" posts really point much more to him being a novice at the game than anything else. I would agree with that if we had no knowledge of jaminz' prior Mafia playstyle, but Mig's analysis is pretty telling. jaminz has previously posted in another mafia game (Haunted Mafia) with some helpful analysis at a pretty consistent rate - not at all what he is doing here. The novice excuse definitely does not work in this example, like it might to m0nster, since we have seen him actively posting beforehand. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 20 2011 08:43 jaminz wrote: Those were just some basic notes I made, as I'm not totally sure what I should be looking for when analyzing someone. I guess the fact that he's also posted relatively little, but mentioned early on that he had played mafia before could point to him being a mafia player trying to lie low though. I can explain myself. I played a few times of TL Mafia roughly 2 years ago where I was an extreme lurker. Ever since then, I've played a few games of mafia on some websites where the games only last roughly 30 minutes long. With my current time commitments, I'm finding it a bit difficult to read up on the thread and respond at the same rate that other players are doing it at. Speaking of which, I had voted for you earlier because you had such a dramatic change in personality between a prior game that you had played and this current game. However, you seem to have returned to posting helpful analysis so I'm willing to trust you if you explain what caused your relative inactivity earlier in the game. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 23 2011 15:38 Barundar wrote: permission to edit please. lol why? I think things are pretty straight-forwards from here, lynch AO for today and then go through the list of possible people. If AO is mafia, we get so many mislynches that I think it becomes almost impossible for the mafia to win. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 23 2011 08:57 jaminz wrote: Is there any way a mafia member could have killed someone without leaving a trace they were there? The only way I could see Airblade not being mafia is if that happened and Airblade watched that mafia member. But if he was roleblocked, he wouldn't have tracked anyone, correct? I'm not sure about this, but I think this would be possible if the mayor were the one performing the action since I think the bodyguards deflect the watchers. But considering Airblade's claim that he was roleblocked, I don't think that is a likely possibility for this killing at least. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On April 23 2011 15:56 Barundar wrote: All good then  Jaminz it's you we will take a look at if AO flips green/blue ^^. If AO is red, DrH is most likely town, considering AO was the only one who thought he could push for DrH through my purely mechanic posts. Funny how AO refuses to call jaminz a lieing scum even when jaminz pegs him as mafia. Curious to see how this works out. Well AO did adamantly declare earlier that jaminz was not mafia, so for him to reverse on that would be equally as suspicious haha. But then again, his tracker claim would make no sense in that context. He would have seen jaminz visit someone and would be really suspicious rather than protective i suppose? I guess asking both players to out their night actions would resolve the issue 100%, but I don't think we would get a truthful list from AO. | ||
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