EPTOn April 03 2011 21:46 Jackal58 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Lanaia is almost 100% definitely not black. She may have a separate win condition than town but she is not black.
Put a bomb on Pandain.
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 03 2011 17:27 Kavdragon wrote:
Looks like I'm not long for this world, so here's my last push.
Based off the information we now have from the black market, it is apparent that blacks are ahead. We need to know more about the items they now posses. Firstly, Cubedin, you guys had the RPG's, can you confirm that they are a KP? Is there anything special about them? Second, do we know how many vests there are? Regardless, it seems very unlikely that will be able to kill blacks with KP other than lynches.
On that note, our NUMBER ONE priority is to LYNCH BLACKS. Thankfully LSB gave us a beautiful gift: the double lynch that is the Arena. Now, as long as you guys concentrate on using the lynch for Blacks, and using your Night KP for reds, we can still pull out a town victory. Town came from behind with some solid analysis and good hunting in XXXVI, and we can do the same thing and win here. However, this will require effort on everyone's part.
Now, I've been thinking about blacks since Meapak died. I defended him because he was doing analysis, but he was on my black list also. Now that he's flipped red, I've had to re-evaluate how the black team is likely to play. Meapak and I were the two people doing analysis, and he flipped red, and I know that I'm green. I cannot accept the heuristic that I have been using for black any longer.
There's a crucial problem that I hadn't thought of: SK's are super pro-town because they HAVE to survive till the end, and they cannot be roleblocked. This means that they must avoid the lynch at all costs. This game is much different than that, because they have a team of players, who can influence and help. This makes them similar to a mafia team, with less members but with BPV's to make up for that. It seems to me, that this game will function more like a game with two mafia families in it.
So how do we figure out the mafia from the blacks if they are both acting like mafia? The first way that i can think of is analysis on the connections between known scum. I don't mean things as obvious as support/callingout, these things could be set up of course, I'm talking about the tone people take with others, do they FoS some people differently than others? Find unusual connections. The second way is back checking people to see if they were making decisions or revealing information that they shouldn't have. For instance, assuming that the blacks actually gave us the names of scum, we know that they knew that before hand. Was anyone overly suspicious of Amberlight and Orgolove? Did they have good reasoning as to why they were their number one suspects?
Assuming that bombs do NOT kill blacks, lynching ilovejohn seems like a bad idea at this point. Heh. Call me scum for opposing your plan, but i don't care I'm going to die in few hours and you'll see. As a townie, I will say that lynching ilovejohn is the wrong call right now. We need to lynch blacks, and if bombs can't do that, then we should have Coag shoot him or something. It's 4-3 right now, and if we kill many more scum, the balance will be upset badly. CubEdIn is dead on when he says we need to whittle them down evenly. The only way that we can realistically kill black is by lynch now, this means that they are practically guaranteed to survive for three more days, and every day we don't lynch one extends that.
I wish I had more time to do analysis, but since I've been cut short, I'll simply say that i suspect Tnkted is black, and I suspect that Lanaia is also black. Meapak did analysis and he was scum. This does not mean that analysis is scummy. Analysis is, and always will be the key to victory, and I hope you guys start using it more.
GL town, looks like you'll be needing it.
Looks like I'm not long for this world, so here's my last push.
Based off the information we now have from the black market, it is apparent that blacks are ahead. We need to know more about the items they now posses. Firstly, Cubedin, you guys had the RPG's, can you confirm that they are a KP? Is there anything special about them? Second, do we know how many vests there are? Regardless, it seems very unlikely that will be able to kill blacks with KP other than lynches.
On that note, our NUMBER ONE priority is to LYNCH BLACKS. Thankfully LSB gave us a beautiful gift: the double lynch that is the Arena. Now, as long as you guys concentrate on using the lynch for Blacks, and using your Night KP for reds, we can still pull out a town victory. Town came from behind with some solid analysis and good hunting in XXXVI, and we can do the same thing and win here. However, this will require effort on everyone's part.
Now, I've been thinking about blacks since Meapak died. I defended him because he was doing analysis, but he was on my black list also. Now that he's flipped red, I've had to re-evaluate how the black team is likely to play. Meapak and I were the two people doing analysis, and he flipped red, and I know that I'm green. I cannot accept the heuristic that I have been using for black any longer.
There's a crucial problem that I hadn't thought of: SK's are super pro-town because they HAVE to survive till the end, and they cannot be roleblocked. This means that they must avoid the lynch at all costs. This game is much different than that, because they have a team of players, who can influence and help. This makes them similar to a mafia team, with less members but with BPV's to make up for that. It seems to me, that this game will function more like a game with two mafia families in it.
So how do we figure out the mafia from the blacks if they are both acting like mafia? The first way that i can think of is analysis on the connections between known scum. I don't mean things as obvious as support/callingout, these things could be set up of course, I'm talking about the tone people take with others, do they FoS some people differently than others? Find unusual connections. The second way is back checking people to see if they were making decisions or revealing information that they shouldn't have. For instance, assuming that the blacks actually gave us the names of scum, we know that they knew that before hand. Was anyone overly suspicious of Amberlight and Orgolove? Did they have good reasoning as to why they were their number one suspects?
Assuming that bombs do NOT kill blacks, lynching ilovejohn seems like a bad idea at this point. Heh. Call me scum for opposing your plan, but i don't care I'm going to die in few hours and you'll see. As a townie, I will say that lynching ilovejohn is the wrong call right now. We need to lynch blacks, and if bombs can't do that, then we should have Coag shoot him or something. It's 4-3 right now, and if we kill many more scum, the balance will be upset badly. CubEdIn is dead on when he says we need to whittle them down evenly. The only way that we can realistically kill black is by lynch now, this means that they are practically guaranteed to survive for three more days, and every day we don't lynch one extends that.
I wish I had more time to do analysis, but since I've been cut short, I'll simply say that i suspect Tnkted is black, and I suspect that Lanaia is also black. Meapak did analysis and he was scum. This does not mean that analysis is scummy. Analysis is, and always will be the key to victory, and I hope you guys start using it more.
GL town, looks like you'll be needing it.
Lanaia is almost 100% definitely not black. She may have a separate win condition than town but she is not black.
Put a bomb on Pandain.
What did your check return as?
and kav, i'm not black. For the record, I think we should take the bomb off kav because hes right: hes been posting good analyzsis and as long as hes doing that (ie, as long as there are more reds in the game than blacks) I'm ok with him living. However, since hes accusing lanaia and myself after I think we've both demonstrated how green we are, I'm not personally going to believe a word he says.
I'm also down with putting the extra bomb on pandain, amber[light], and orgolove.
