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On January 14 2011 04:38 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 22:12 Jackal58 wrote:On January 13 2011 15:07 why wrote:
So, I did some math:
The split right now is likely 7 townies and 3 mafia. If we double mislynch today then we are down to 5 townies. Then, there are would be 2 NK so, barring a medic save or a vet hit we'd be down to 3. And then we have lost. Let me repeat that:
If we double mislynch today and there isn't a medic save or vet hit tonight, we lose.
What does this mean? Mafia are much more likely to strongly push lynches and take risks today, as they will win if they can lynch two towns. Therefore, we need to be very careful with orgolove's suggested plan. If orgolove is red, then he has just picked two green players that seem particularly scummy to lynch, hope town sheeps with him, and then when they both flip green there are no consequences because he just won the game for the reds. Because of this, we should try to lynch someone other than TheMango or Soulfire. I don't care which doesn't get lynched (orgolove's case for both is pretty convincing, to be honest) but only one of them at most should because if they are both town then orgolove just won the game for mafia. I also think it is suspicious that as soon as orgolove posted that, three other people immediately followed his lead (ilovejohn, Mr. Zergling, and Jackal58, although Jackal58 since changed one of his votes to pandain). This, to me, looks like mafia is jumping on a green bandwagon which means one or both of TheMango and Soulfire are probably green.
I still think Mr. Zergling is a likely red especially given the bandwagon, and ilovejohn and jackal58 are also much more on my radar now given their quick jumping on the bandwagon. So, I'm going to switch my second vote from soulfire to ilovejohn for now (since jackal58 at least changed his vote off of soulfire).
TLDR; Orgolove could be mafia, don't let both soulfire and TheMango die. My vote for Soulfire and TheMango was just to see which of them Pandain was going to attempt to divert the vote from. You could well be right about Orgolove. I could be right about Pandain. I sent Orgolove a PM yesterday regarding Paindains seemingly uncanny ability to switch the vote. It was sent to see if Pandain and Orgolove were talking to each other. At this point it does not appear that they are. Pandain did exactly what I expected him to do. If he and Orgo are both red I think they would both probably have switched up the vote to me. But it appears they are both aligned differently. I cannot say with any certainty which one is Red but one of them is. I think if we lynch them both today we will reduce reds kp and at the least extend the game through another day cycle that will allow one of our dts to claim and tell us who the remaining 2 mafia are. On that basis I am going to vote Orgolove and Pandain for lynch today. There are several things wrong with this paragraph. For one, why do you think that out of orgo and me one of us has to be red? You never responded to when I rebutted your "argument" against me(which was really just "lets lynch the dt so mafia don't have to shoot him."). I want you to respond to this. Why do you think out of us two one of us has to be red, and why don't you think the other people are better lynches?
On January 10 2011 05:57 Pandain wrote:
Hello everyone. I'm back.
First off, I'd like to express my satisfaction to God that he made Brockett be inactive, as that helped us alot.
Second off, I'd like to emphasize a certain point I had made earlier.
You have to be active. In the course of 24 hours, only 5 posts had been made. I find this very disturbing to me. In fact, even though I have already admitted I fake claimed DT, I have been roleblocked for the third time in a row.
How many times are you gonna claim DT? I think you are forgetting which lies you told when.
I already explained it to you. You are either red or extremely poor at picking lynch targets. Neither is a loss to town.
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On January 14 2011 04:53 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2011 04:38 Pandain wrote:On January 13 2011 22:12 Jackal58 wrote:On January 13 2011 15:07 why wrote:
So, I did some math:
The split right now is likely 7 townies and 3 mafia. If we double mislynch today then we are down to 5 townies. Then, there are would be 2 NK so, barring a medic save or a vet hit we'd be down to 3. And then we have lost. Let me repeat that:
If we double mislynch today and there isn't a medic save or vet hit tonight, we lose.
What does this mean? Mafia are much more likely to strongly push lynches and take risks today, as they will win if they can lynch two towns. Therefore, we need to be very careful with orgolove's suggested plan. If orgolove is red, then he has just picked two green players that seem particularly scummy to lynch, hope town sheeps with him, and then when they both flip green there are no consequences because he just won the game for the reds. Because of this, we should try to lynch someone other than TheMango or Soulfire. I don't care which doesn't get lynched (orgolove's case for both is pretty convincing, to be honest) but only one of them at most should because if they are both town then orgolove just won the game for mafia. I also think it is suspicious that as soon as orgolove posted that, three other people immediately followed his lead (ilovejohn, Mr. Zergling, and Jackal58, although Jackal58 since changed one of his votes to pandain). This, to me, looks like mafia is jumping on a green bandwagon which means one or both of TheMango and Soulfire are probably green.
I still think Mr. Zergling is a likely red especially given the bandwagon, and ilovejohn and jackal58 are also much more on my radar now given their quick jumping on the bandwagon. So, I'm going to switch my second vote from soulfire to ilovejohn for now (since jackal58 at least changed his vote off of soulfire).
TLDR; Orgolove could be mafia, don't let both soulfire and TheMango die. My vote for Soulfire and TheMango was just to see which of them Pandain was going to attempt to divert the vote from. You could well be right about Orgolove. I could be right about Pandain. I sent Orgolove a PM yesterday regarding Paindains seemingly uncanny ability to switch the vote. It was sent to see if Pandain and Orgolove were talking to each other. At this point it does not appear that they are. Pandain did exactly what I expected him to do. If he and Orgo are both red I think they would both probably have switched up the vote to me. But it appears they are both aligned differently. I cannot say with any certainty which one is Red but one of them is. I think if we lynch them both today we will reduce reds kp and at the least extend the game through another day cycle that will allow one of our dts to claim and tell us who the remaining 2 mafia are. On that basis I am going to vote Orgolove and Pandain for lynch today. There are several things wrong with this paragraph. For one, why do you think that out of orgo and me one of us has to be red? You never responded to when I rebutted your "argument" against me(which was really just "lets lynch the dt so mafia don't have to shoot him."). I want you to respond to this. Why do you think out of us two one of us has to be red, and why don't you think the other people are better lynches? Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 05:57 Pandain wrote:
Hello everyone. I'm back.
First off, I'd like to express my satisfaction to God that he made Brockett be inactive, as that helped us alot.
Second off, I'd like to emphasize a certain point I had made earlier.
You have to be active. In the course of 24 hours, only 5 posts had been made. I find this very disturbing to me. In fact, even though I have already admitted I fake claimed DT, I have been roleblocked for the third time in a row. How many times are you gonna claim DT? I think you are forgetting which lies you told when. I already explained it to you. You are either red or extremely poor at picking lynch targets. Neither is a loss to town.
At this point its LYLO unless a medic protection happens or we have 4 vets and one gets hit. Neither one is likely
At this point every lynch matters.
If you think I'm mafia you think:
1.Mafia have been roleblocking themselves/people they have killed since day 2, neither of which option makes sense.
2.I got my own godfather lynched.
3.I correctly pointed out a list of pro town people
4.I argued for the confirmation of Opz and argued for people to role claim to him
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Also what are you talking about. I've already admitted I fake claimed to draw roleblocks. When have I said otherwise?
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After a good deal of thought I have decided to advocate the lynching of Ilovejonn instead of soulfire. I want everyone to look at the current vote list right now:
On January 14 2011 05:04 flamewheel wrote:
Vote Tally for Day 6 Double Lynch
Soulfire (4): Mr.Zergling, orgolove, ilovejonn, Pandain
Mr.Zergling (2): why, ShoCkeyy
TheMango (4): Mr.Zergling, orgolove, ilovejonn, Soulfire
Pandain (4): Jackal58, ShoCkeyy, TheMango, Soulfire
Jackal58 (1): TheMango
d3_crescentia (1): Pandain
ilovejonn (1): why
orgolove (1): Jackal58
d3_crescentia needs to post and make his two votes. You have 6 hours and 56 minutes.
The people I do not trust right now are soulfire, zergling, ilovejonn, and somewhat orgolove/jackal(both equal in the latter.) Looking at the votes for mango and soulfire leads me to believe that Mango and perhaps even soulfire are innocent. Look at that. Zergling, orgo, and Ilovejonn ALL voted for mango/soulfire.
I'm unsure what to think about soulfire. Part of me thinks hes mafia and they're content to let him die/try to push the lynch onto me. Part of me thinks he's just really really inactive(as in needs to contribute ALOT more.) I do think soulfire is a good lynch....
But also think the fact that three people I suspect are voting for him worries me even more.
You know what else is funny about Ilovejonn? He has never voted for a double lynch. He has hardly analyzed anyone. He, even more than d3, fits the profile of "contributing without really contributing."
I do think soulfire is scummy, and advocate him to be lynched tommorow. However, I am now entering up to debate whether D3 or soulfire should be lynched.
If you think mango is mafia, btw, then you think that the town(or most likely) is:
zergling
soulfire
orgo
ilovejonn
All of who should be suspicious to you.
So, what do you think?
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I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people.
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United States1966 Posts
All I know is, everything you PM me asking what I think of 'x', I get paranoid and automatically think you're scum :p
I actually liked 'Why's analysis in the previous page, and was tempted to vote for orgolove and ilovejonn, but I am going to keep 1 vote on you, and possibly switch my other vote on jackal85 to orgo/ilovejohn. We'll see, i'll be around till the deadline.
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United States1966 Posts
On January 14 2011 05:55 TheMango wrote:
All I know is, everything you PM me asking what I think of 'x', I get paranoid and automatically think you're scum :p
I actually liked 'Why's analysis in the previous page, and was tempted to vote for orgolove and ilovejonn, but I am going to keep 1 vote on you, and possibly switch my other vote on jackal85 to orgo/ilovejohn. We'll see, i'll be around till the deadline.
by you, I mean Pandain
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On January 14 2011 05:54 why wrote:
I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people.
Which bandwagon was that?
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On January 14 2011 05:54 why wrote:
I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people.
Given that both pandain and TheMango (the two people who were voting for Jackal) have either switched to ilovejohn or expressed interest voting for ilovejohn since the above post, I am going to keep my vote on ilovejohn for now.
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On January 14 2011 06:12 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2011 05:54 why wrote:
I am going to switch my vote to Jackal58 because he was in on the bandwagon, it looks like no one else is going to vote for ilovejohn, and I don't want both TheMango and soulfire lynched. At least Jackal is on everyone's radar. I might not be back before deadline and I want to consolidate the votes.
I'm not going to vote for pandain because I think he is town. He has been posting frequently, has fostered discussion, and led the lynch on the godfather, for god's sake. He missed a bunch, but at this point it is too late to lynch for messing up; we need to lynch red tonight. There are definitely scummier people. Which bandwagon was that?
On January 12 2011 14:26 Mr.Zergling wrote:
##Vote Soulfire
##Vote TheMango
On January 12 2011 14:27 orgolove wrote:
##Vote: TheMango
##Vote: Soulfire
On January 12 2011 15:52 ilovejonn wrote:
##Vote TheMango
##Vote Soulfire
On January 12 2011 21:25 Jackal58 wrote:
##VOTE: TheMango
##VOTE: Soulfire
(I realize you then switched off of soulfire, but I'm staying on ilovejohn now anyway)
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Everyone should vote Ilovejonn, and then soulfire/d3.
Mango is town, that's pretty much obvious with the way the voting has went and in addition the fact that as I have said, just because your wrong does NOT mean your mafia.
Anyone who doesn't give a reason why they aren't doing the above state so in thread.
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D3 is probably going to be mod killed?
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On January 14 2011 06:51 Jackal58 wrote:
D3 is probably going to be mod killed?
then vote soulfire instead of voting for me because "I'm not 100% right", when noone else has either.
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
... Sigh.
You know what? I tried. I really did. What more can I do to convince you? Even in the face of a mountain of evidence, you prefer listening to blind guesses and a village idiot who directly caused us to waste two of our five lynches. Good job.
If the evidence I presented won't convince you to vote for TheMango and Soulfire, then there's nothing else that will.
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
And really. Did flamewheel pull a fast one on us and the game thus does not have any town investigation roles? What is the DT doing in this game?
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Find it interesting that orgolove seems to be panicking a bit in response to the switching of votes off of me and onto the others lurkers - this really seems suspicious, so I'm gonna put my vote up for him and d3 instead of pandain and Mango.
It sounds like he knows something that we don't; why does he think that I'm a better lynch than someone like d3? It'd be the same to a townie, a scummy inactive. I know that I'm townie, and with that i'm very confident that Orgolove and the people that he's defending are scum.
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On January 14 2011 07:50 orgolove wrote:
And really. Did flamewheel pull a fast one on us and the game thus does not have any town investigation roles? What is the DT doing in this game?
I've been asking that for 2 days now. That would be quite the laugh on us now wouldn't it?
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If Mango and Soulfire are both town and gets mislynched, +2 night kills hitting 2 greens (if they hit mad hatter it could be gg) then 6 people remain. If Orgolove, Pandain and Mr. Zergling are still alive after that, we all know who to lynch. Especially Orgolove, since he says he believes 100% Mango is red.
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Actually if we assume there are 3 mafia, after night kills game could be over unless a mad hatter planted bombs correctly AND assuming there is even a mad hatter to begin with.
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Sorry I've been away; it's been a bit of a busy week at work thus far.
At this point in time I'm fairly certain that there are no town investigation roles.
I've been spending a bit of time looking back at the annul lynch, and I think it's fair to say that there's no way Pandain is red. I simply don't understand why he would push for the annul lynch so hard unless there was some deep mind-fuckery going on here - and I don't think Pandain is capable of that kind of subtlety.
RoL died and we went on to Day 3. We all pored over his list of suspicious but we never thought too deeply into why RoL was shot in the first place. After looking at some of his posts, I think this is why the mafia hit him.
On January 03 2011 03:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
The one thing I will say now is look at how Annul posted towards his death. The guy is pissed, especially over activity. On top of that he was the godfather which made no sense at all. Judging by his anger and him being godfather, I would say chances are most of his mafia comrades are lurkers, which the exception of maybe 1-2 posting a little more. One of the most glaring errors in your argument is this. If I am mafia, and annul was mafia. Then why am I not the godfather if I am so good?
On January 03 2011 03:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Oh and DT's tonight. All I want you to do is CHECK LURKERS. I believe most of mafia team (probably 2-3 of them) are in there and we can't analyze lurkers. It would be stupid for the mafia to try to frame one, and odds are even if they try you won't overlap.
As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have:
5. Brocket
7. Mr.Zergling
8. why
9. Jackal58
12. Node
15. ShoCkeyy
19. Orgolove
23. GeorgeClooney
24. d3_crescentia
27. Soulfire
30. ~OpZ~
Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now.
Now consider it thusly: Mafia have been shooting all game in the hopes of hitting a blue, but more so just looking to hit the more active players. The large majority of this list is still alive. We should have been looking at this list from the get-go. I'm kind of surprised TheMango isn't on this list as well, but I haven't paid much attention to him other than a little question mark in my notes, so maybe he's town. Quite possible considering I haven't really been putting that much time in this game. Since we're approaching lylo now, it's probably time for me to change that.
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EPT
