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TL Mafia XXXV - Page 69

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 04:46 GMT
#1361
...Sigh. There goes our only confirmed townie.

DT this game, you are fucking useless.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 04:51 GMT
#1362
Anyway. Here's the vote list right now. Votes for players who have not yet been confirmed have been bolded. An empty line indicates the next day.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 05:25 GMT
#1363
fuck - hit post too early. Here it goes.

6. TheMango
LSB

Mr.Wiggles

Meapak_Ziphh <--Night Vote
barundar-->DarThienAn-->GeorgeClooney

Seraph

DarThienAn



7. Mr.Zergling
LSB-->Brocket

Pandain-->Mr.Wiggles-->Meapak_Ziphh-->orgolove-->Node

TheMango-->DarThienAn-->GeorgeClooney

Seraph

Shockeyy



8. why
~OpZ~-->Brocket

Seraph-->annul

Meapak_Ziphh
Seraph

Seraph

soulfire

soulfire
Mr.Zergling



9. Jackal58
LSB-->TheMango-->Brocket

RebirthOfLegenD-->Mr.Zergling-->Orgolove

TheMango-->Meapak_Ziphh-->GeorgeClooney
DarThienAn

Seraph-->Pandain

Pandain-->TheMango



15. ShoCkeyy
Shockeyy

pandain

Barundar
pandain

pandain

pandain



17. ilovejonn
why-->~OpZ~

ilovejonn-->annul

Mr.Zergling
Meapak_Ziphh-->Seraph

Seraph

soulfire



20. Pandain
Mr.Wiggles-->jackal58

shockey-->LSB-->d3_crescentia-->LSB

orgolove-->annul

DarThienAn-->Meapak_Ziphh
soulfire-->GeorgeClooney

Seraph

soulfire-->TheMango-->DarThienAn



24. d3_crescentia
d3_crescentia-->said he'd change vote, but never did

orgolove-->annul

DarThienAn
Meapak_Ziphh

DarThienAn

DarThienAn



27. Soulfire
LSB-->Brocket-->LSB

Mr.Wiggles

GeorgeClooney
DarThienAn

Seraph

pandain

----------------------

Five days of votes give us plenty of data to look for.

1. TheMango is clearly a red. Do I even need to explain this? 0 red votes, night vote on a green before day, 0 red votes, 0 red votes, 0 red votes. Only player with 0 red votes. All his votes have been confirmed green or blue. Need I say any more?

2. Shockeyy and d3_crescentia have been focusing their votes on a single player, and never changed their votes. Given that reds are usually coordinated and would try to set up their votes. so I doubt they're red.

3. MrZergling and Pandain seem more like a townie who can't make up his mind. For these two, look at day two posts, when there was a real danger between me or Node, the godfather. Both of them changed their votes a lot, and eventually settled on Node. I'm not 100% about this, but I think a red would probably try to stack their votes on me early on, and keep it there unless it was very clear that their godfather would die. Since they changed their votes so many times during that pivotal day... I don't think they're red.

4. Going from assumption #1, we can see if TheMango's votes were the default mafia vote they decided during night. The vote record for the two confirmed reds are as below:


annul
LSB

Mr.Wiggles-->Mr.Zergling-->orgolove-->RebirthOfLegenD


Brocket
LSB

insanious

insanious-->DarThienAn
Jackal58-->Mr.Zergling

Tevo
Tevo


Interesting, isn't it. Ignoring the two inactives (brocket, tevo), TheMango's and Annul's first votes of the first two days match, and so does Soulfire.

Comparing TheMango and Soulfire's votes, the first votes of the 1st, 2nd, and 4th days match. And their targets mostly lined up, although soulfire's last vote of Pandain may be due to him just deciding to stop PMing or something.

We have our second mafia here.


6. Continuing from above, Mr.Zergling is a green considering how much the reds have tried to lynch him.



7. And finally. I'm green. Since hey. I know what I am.



Putting all this together, we have this:
6. TheMango
7. Mr.Zergling
8. why
9. Jackal58
15. ShoCkeyy
17. ilovejonn
19. Orgolove
20. Pandain
24. d3_crescentia
27. Soulfire


The alignment of the remaining three will be more easily determined once today's lynch is settled.


For now, based on this evidence, I am voting for


TheMango
soulfire



1. If TheMango is red but soulfire is green, why and ilovejonn are red.
2. If both are red, then it'll be more difficult to tell between the two, but I think why will be the other red since he was so fast in trying to start a bandwagon against Mr.Zergling so early in the day, when he's clearly a green at this point.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Mr.Zergling
Profile Joined December 2010
United States141 Posts
January 12 2011 05:25 GMT
#1364
Well, inactive game is annoying and inactive
~9001 lings at 5 min? No Problem
Mr.Zergling
Profile Joined December 2010
United States141 Posts
January 12 2011 05:26 GMT
#1365
lol posted right after orgolove
~9001 lings at 5 min? No Problem
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 05:26 GMT
#1366
Excuse me?
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 05:30 GMT
#1367
Thinking about it a bit more, If both are red, ilovejonn will probably be the third mafia, since why and jackal have been voting for TheMango and soulfire a couple of times.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 05:39 GMT
#1368
Sorry about triple post. I was just checking to make when d3_crescentia had changed his vote during day 2. And it was before it was even close between me and annul, so I honestly think he's clear.

Our plan should be as follows:
1. Lynch TheMango and Soulfire.
TheMango is 100% red.

Depending on Soulfire's alignment, town's actions in next will be determined.

2a. If Soulfire is green:
Lynch why.

2a-1. If why is red, lynch Jackal58. (ilovejonn voted for why as his first vote on day 1)

2a-2. If why is green, jackal58 and ilovejonn are the two remaining mafia.



2b. if soulfire is red:
lynch ilovejonn.

we win.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 05:42 GMT
#1369
quintuple post ftw. Sorry about that! Looking at TheMango more closely, I had said this:

Only player with 0 red votes. All his votes have been confirmed green or blue. Need I say any more?


actually, ilovejonn also has 0 red votes, but some of his votes have not yet been confirmed. But every single vote of TheMango has been confirmed green or blue - there's no way out. He's red.


Oh, and he voted for a green before day started, and kept his vote on the green. So he knew who he wanted to lynch before the mafia's target was chosen. Lol... I can't believe we missed that.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 05:47 GMT
#1370
On January 12 2011 14:42 orgolove wrote:
quintuple post ftw.


In closing, DT: if there's anything you can add to what I've gathered, you're welcome to tell us. Surely you have the alignment of at least one of the 13 of us that are remaining? Even a single additional confirmation would make it so much more easier for us to narrow it down.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
ilovejonn
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
Canada2548 Posts
January 12 2011 06:50 GMT
#1371
I have zero red votes..? annul? +the other 2 mafias were modkilled, why did I need to waste a vote on them? I also just listened to what the so called "confirmed townies/DTs" have said (yes I thought Pandain was a DT but sometimes I don't understand wtf he's saying) to base votes on.

Also, if you firmly believe Mango and Soulfire are reds, I have no problem voting for them, there's really not much to work with and I guess when people decide to lynch me there will be an even better chance to hunt scum since it'll narrow down the players even more.
Snowflakes in January, Heart warm like February, I wouldn't ordinarily..
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 06:54 GMT
#1372
On January 12 2011 15:50 ilovejonn wrote:
I have zero red votes..? annul? +the other 2 mafias were modkilled, why did I need to waste a vote on them? I also just listened to what the so called "confirmed townies/DTs" have said (yes I thought Pandain was a DT but sometimes I don't understand wtf he's saying) to base votes on.



My bad - my mistake in color coding that. Sorry. Anyway, that statement was just to further point out that all of TheMango's votes have so far been shown as for confirmed greens/blues. It wasn't to say you are scummy.


On January 12 2011 15:50 ilovejonn wrote:
Also, if you firmly believe Mango and Soulfire are reds, I have no problem voting for them, there's really not much to work with and I guess when people decide to lynch me there will be an even better chance to hunt scum since it'll narrow down the players even more.


I firmly believe Mango is red. I'm still not 100% clear on Soulfire. But lynching him will give us enough information to form a clear directive on how to proceed from there.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
January 12 2011 07:02 GMT
#1373
On January 12 2011 14:42 orgolove wrote:
Oh, and he voted for a green before day started, and kept his vote on the green. So he knew who he wanted to lynch before the mafia's target was chosen. Lol... I can't believe we missed that.


Meaning, TheMango knew that Meapak won't be killed by the mafia, before the night was over. This is only possible if he's one of the reds.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 12 2011 12:04 GMT
#1374
Mango is red. I've been saying it for a week.
I wouldn't mind lynching our DT either. What a useless pos.
Life can only kill you once.
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
January 12 2011 13:07 GMT
#1375
Seriously dt, come out with what you know... we can win the fucking game...
Life?
TheMango
Profile Joined April 2007
United States1967 Posts
January 12 2011 14:22 GMT
#1376
The honest truth is, I have no idea what's going on, and the last two days I've been voting with OpZ. In a game this big, and with our one confirmed blue not a DT, its not hard to miss all your votes, that doesn't automatically make you red. The fact that you're pushing for me and mass spamming all of a sudden at this point of the game makes me think you are mafia.

I haven't contributed at all this game, this being my first forum mafia game, I planned to use it as a learning experience. However, since I'm still playing to win, I'll say this: I'm a green townie, at this point I could care less if I was lynched, but know this... since its double lynch, and you lynch another green/blue other than me incorrectly by following orgolove's advice, at night time, we could very well lose 2 critical blues. I'd highly recommend you pick another target today, and lynch me the next if you still think im mafia/DT hasnt checked me.
Moderator
TheMango
Profile Joined April 2007
United States1967 Posts
January 12 2011 14:26 GMT
#1377
Also, for those who think I'm mafia, you're free to check how I post as mafia in the mini game that just ended run by RoL. You should be able to tell the difference between my play as a mafia and townie
Moderator
TheMango
Profile Joined April 2007
United States1967 Posts
January 12 2011 14:29 GMT
#1378
lol, just saw your point about me voting meapeak during night. It's ridiculous that you think that's a scum tell. Give me a break, I obviously messed up and posted incorrectly. If anything, I WOULDN'T make that mistake as mafia. I'm not even going to bother responding to you anymore. Everyone else should be very wary of being misled by orgolove, either intentionally or mistakenly, as his analysis is very flawed.
Moderator
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
January 12 2011 22:21 GMT
#1379
Just voting people who turn out to be red doesn't mean you yourself are red. I disagree with the statement that Mango is mafia. I think he's town.

Mango seems to me just a bored/new townie. He's uncomfortable with the online format, and has even told me several times he's just chillaxing cause he's pretty confused. I do think he is suspicious, but think IloveJonn/d3 would be a far better choice to lynch.

There are a number of reasons why I think theMango is town, or at least why Ilovejonn/d3 are better lynches.

1.Mango has at least posted with decent content. He posts, and doesn't try to act like he's contributing really. He posts short things with short content. Mafia usually want to act like they're at least being pretty contributive. This is why d3 is suspicious. He's posted pretty long things, but they're all either repeats of what someone else said, about the format of the game, or after I force him to post.

2.Mango pmed me several times, on his own. Usually mafia don't want to be the one contributing, they want to just sit back and let the town not talk for 24 hours.

On January 12 2011 21:04 Jackal58 wrote:
Mango is red. I've been saying it for a week.
I wouldn't mind lynching our DT either. What a useless pos.


Posts like this are the suspicious posts. First of all, why would you want to lynch our DT, at all!! Second of all, he just says "ya, mango is red" without saying anything about it. This is why Jackal is now suspicious to me.

I agree with soulfire, but will be voting D_3 for the second lynch.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 12 2011 22:22 GMT
#1380
On January 12 2011 23:29 TheMango wrote:
lol, just saw your point about me voting meapeak during night. It's ridiculous that you think that's a scum tell. Give me a break, I obviously messed up and posted incorrectly. If anything, I WOULDN'T make that mistake as mafia. I'm not even going to bother responding to you anymore. Everyone else should be very wary of being misled by orgolove, either intentionally or mistakenly, as his analysis is very flawed.

Well every lynch so far has been flawed. I don't see how one more is going to do anything. WHERE ARE YOU PEOPLE????????
Life can only kill you once.
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