Pick Your Power Mafia 3! - Page 3

On January 07 2011 16:31 Misder wrote:
Also, LSB, I feel that you're over-exaggerating the # of investigative roles
Role cop (can only confirm roles in list, not really guarantee that they are mafia), JOAT (can only investigate once), tracker (if used effectively), and parity cop
Tracker and parity cop seems like the only investigative roles that the town can rely on. (And JOAT, but that person can only check once)

On January 07 2011 22:19 Pigsquirrel wrote:
The major problem with LSB's plan is that the Mafia can conform then just snipe the investigative roles.
If they are lucky and land on an extra KP, then it's GG for town.

On January 07 2011 22:52 deconduo wrote:
There's no point following LSB's plan if more than a couple of people don't intend to. I personally don't think its that terrible, but it relies on every single townie picking as they are supposed to. Its pretty obvious that won't happen now.

On January 08 2011 03:34 JimboSilvers wrote:


Well there's two things to consider

-LSB magically fixes his plan as soon as he got his role pm LOL
-LSB is clearly very stubborn

With that in mind my guess is he's a green townie, with an eye towards picking traitor again. If he is mafia why would he bother to change his plan.

Since I bet LSB will continue fighting against any objections until the end of time no matter what his role, I propose we just ignore him and his nonsense plan and create something better together. I have something simple and effective but I want to wait until after draft order is set to say anything on it.

On January 08 2011 03:41 Pigsquirrel wrote:
I think we should just focus on denying scum the KP roles. Simply take the CPR and comp vigi within the first few picks, scum is left with only 1 kp, we win.

On January 08 2011 04:00 Pigsquirrel wrote:

Because giving scum role cop is better than giving them a role list?

On January 08 2011 05:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Eh? I get this version of mafia is centered around people choosing roles, however, Mafia can use almost any role in this setup. As can town. (few roles town doesn't need but still). Anyone who has read the most recent clusterfuck of games should realize centering on trying and making a easily confirmed "town circle" or the like is wasting time.

If LSB wanted to be helpful he would have created 3-5 different options of role distribution. Or he could have opted to give his list a "randomized" element where instead of say "choose rolecop" it would be "choose investigative role".

There are multiple holes. Add in that there are enough players in this version who know their own personal strengths that certain roles are going to benefit them more highly than others and will most likely just choose those regardless.

The emphasis so far in this game is "lets make a list of easy to off targets for mafia / make it easy for them to infiltrate" instead of "lets scumhunt."

Bad day 1 start

On January 08 2011 06:52 kitaman27 wrote:


However, the SK will also be going after certain pro-town roles as well. Combined with the other kill roles and the chance that a couple of the protown roles might go to mafia, they certainly won't be around for 8 days.

Mafia won't be able to use the extra two KP directly, but they will still be able to influence their targets, as with a lynch. They may not have the opportunity to go rouge until late game, but I'm sure they won't have any problem when town instructs them to hit another town.

Since no one else seems to be suggesting an alternate plan, what is everyone's thoughts on assigning only the anti-town roles that need to be monitored? The top four certainly cannot be allowed to be randomized. Those with the outlined pick should select this role. I would suggest the role blocker be assigned to a slightly higher number, but that is up for debate.

The lower tier can hurt the town, but not necessarily kill it. There should at least be some threat that they will be selected in order to deter mafia selection. Maybe sort of probabilistic approach similar to the second game. Prince of Darkness, Politican, and to a lesser extent, Pardoner and God Father have at least some possible pro-town applications so it wouldn't be a total loss if they were selected.

The top tier:
1. CPR Doctor
2. Vigilante
3. Copy Cat
10. Role blocker (possibly should be higher)

Lower tier:
12. Janitor
13. Prince of Darkness
15. Pardoner
16. Politican
22. God Father

On January 08 2011 07:24 JimboSilvers wrote:
I lied. My plan isn't simple. But it is still effective .

JIMBOS PLAN

Here are the results from the past two PYP games.



I was thinking from the perspective of using past game drafting patterns to be able to put the important town roles in a certain area. However I did not consider what lsb is saying, in that I would have no way of proving myself to be town in that time and thus could just as easily be mafia trying to get my buddies what we want.

So we'll see how it goes right now though.

What I noticed in reading both past games - Thanks Ace for suggesting it! - is that mafia has a very difficult time getting top a number of picks or do not want to for several reasons. As you can see both games they got in the top 2 slots but then their picks start jumping all over the place.

There are various reasons for that, as having top picks in these games wasn't always ideal, but it got me thinking. Say the mafia want to get most of the top picks. How do they do it?

1- they can try picking a bunch of the top numbers; eg 1 2 3 4 5. However, this will inevitably produce clashing since townies will surely do so as well and mafia definitely won't remain in the top. They might get 1-2 in the top 8 or so, but the rest of their members will be stinking low in consequence.

2- Mafia picks numbers all over the place and hopes the town clashes a lot. This is purely luck and probability means 1-2 mafia will be in the top 6, which is A-OKAY.

3- They could triple up on a high number e.g 1, then have the other 2 picking likely unique numbers eg 13, and hope everyone else clashes. This gives them a legitimate chance of getting up there in numbers but it also very well might screw them over completely.

Mafia have a much easier time assuring themselves a number of picks in the middle, namely by clashing with each other on a high number and spreading some with high numbers unlikely to be picked.

If anyone has any way the mafia could assure themselves a majority of the top slots, please post so. Otherwise I think I'm onto something.

The reason this is important is where the assigned roles are. We clearly need to have a few roles accountable. The previous plans, and current plan, followed the train of thought that KP boosting and important-to-deny-mafia roles needed to be picked first. What ended up happening was that the first 3 or more slots were sealed up, eg it didn't matter what alignment the people who got them were because they were held on accountability.EG If the prince of darkness acts, something's wrong and he must die. That meant that the best town roles got thrown into 4-something, where the majority of the mafia will be located. This doesn't make sense.

We want the pro town roles in the hands of the town and the anti town roles in the hands of ACCOUNTABLE mafia (or town or sk).

Superduper Town roles=

Jack
Bullet Bill
Bullet Proof
Parity Cop
Doctor
Veteran


In addition there are some solid to mediocre town roles.

Role Cop=
Mason
Tracker
Hider
Witch


Accountable Roles=

CPR Doc
vigi
Roleblocker
Copycat - because of the day vigi the infinite kp role point brought up earlier



Now you might object that there will be clashes. Yes, there will. And that is not actually that horrible. For one, mafia will clash too. They won't be able to get what they want as easily. And mafia clashing will make other roles better, namely Tracker. A roleblocking mafia gets followed to his roleblock target. A vanilla mafia gets followed to the kill .

For two, it's more important that good townies get the really superduper roles and we get a few greens than the really superduper roles die right away because they are known and we're left with the shitty roles. Jack and Bullet Bill and infinitely better than Tracker or Mason.

It doesn't really matter what alignment comp vigi and CPR doc are as long as we know who they are. If their shots don't follow their assigned targets, then we know they're mafia.

So-

JIMBOS PROPOSAL

-Players 1-6 will pick a very pro town role. Preferably one of those I listed in blue but there are some others like witch that can prove useful too or hider to mess with hits going in the top 6.
-Players 7-10 will pick CPR doc, vigi, Roleblocker, and Copycat in that order. Town will vote during the night phase for the kp to use as a type of extra lynches. They don't follow orders, they die. Maybe we should assign Prince as #11? I'm not sure how bad this role actually is for the town? Janitor as #12? Might be nasty.
-Everyone else picks what they want.

Mafia can pretty much guarantee they will get 1 person in the top 6 somewhere, maybe two as they have 5 people. But that still leaves a 4-5 townies with very powerful roles. We need those roles to win.

What's better, the mafia cannot exploit this fact like they can an LSB list because of the bulletproof/veteran threat and the fact that the doctor will likely protect in that area.

The things I'm not certain on are should we do anything about the kinda mediocre pro scum roles? Or just tell townies not to pick them and have rolecop know if he gets scum by seeing that pop up? And is 6 the right number for the cutoff?

FEEDBACK PEOPLE LETS GOGOGOO

On January 08 2011 12:03 Misder wrote:
LSB, if you think that mafia can easily get into the top of the draft, what's preventing them from conforming with your list instead of purposely clashing. For example, if mafia gets pick 1 or 3, they get a role they want, and no one is able to clash with them.

1) Guarantee that mafia will get roles
a) Since we know the draft order once we pick numbers, if mafia lands on one of the roles that is crucial to mafia, ie vigilante, mafia can relax in getting the role they want.
b) Even if mafia doesn't get the role they want according to LSB's list, they may still conform with the list just to deny the town with a useful role ie Bullet Bill
c) All the roles are useful for mafia in some way (except role cop, but refer to 2)

2) Still doesn't stop mafia from clashing with important town roles, esp if mafia ends up with a role that they don't want

2) Plan makes bulletproof and veteran useless, as they can't draw in mafia KP.

3) Mafia will know who is what role, and is able to target by role instead of in the dark.

On January 08 2011 08:02 LSB wrote:
2. The mafia will still know where the super duper town roles are.
Role #1 is obviously going to be a super duper role
Role #2 is likely to be a super duper role
Role #3 is more likely to be a super duper role
Role #6 probably is a townie.
That's where the mafia is going to hit. Your plan isn't fixing anything. It's basically the same thing as my plan, just there are less blues.

On January 09 2011 05:27 JimboSilvers wrote:
2- If mafia wants to they can arrange to have the majority of middle picks. This is what has happened both of the last 2 games with mafia getting at least half their players in the middle. They can either do this doubling up on very high numbers eg 1 1 or picking larger unique numbers eg 9 11 13. LSB also showed a way here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=176529&currentpage=10#197