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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On December 15 2010 08:32 BrownBear wrote: I am here, voting for myself again because I'm not superconvinced by any arguments so far. That said, having Hesmyrr as a (mostly) confirmed town voice is nice. That is seriously all you have to say? What is not convincing? Do you have any better alternatives?? | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On December 15 2010 08:13 Amber[LighT] wrote: There was no bandwagon. I don't understand where you got this thought from. If there was a bandwagon you would be ahead in votes. Maybe you're waiting till the end? Who knows... | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
I seriously SERIOUSLY disagree with double lynching tomorrow. Do we have good candidates yet? I might reconsider if we can confirm at least ONE. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
On December 15 2010 08:46 Infundibulum wrote: That is seriously all you have to say? What is not convincing? Do you have any better alternatives?? Let's vote BrownBear instead. Y/N? | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
i'd like to, but i don't think there's enough time. i think zeks is more likely to be red anyway. | ||
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seRapH
United States9706 Posts
On December 15 2010 08:38 Node wrote: I'm going to vote zeks today, as I don't want to let him slip through the cracks. I still think Eiii is mafia, and I'm very very suspicious of LSB. Note his "I'm going to die tonight!" and "Seriously, I don't understand why I'm still alive" posts. It's just a way of saying, "Look! I'm town! Really! Because I'm a target! Really!" If I had to pick a person who would be Gengar, it would be LSB. Well LSB saying that isn't going to make people rolecheck him. If you really think this is fishy, check through his post history in other games to see if he does the same thing. | ||
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
What happened Eiii? Did we dismiss the whole voting thing? People I feel like I haven't heard from recently: dinmsab DCLXVI Oceanic Insanious hmmm... that's it off the top of my head just looking at the player list. Do we have any better lynches than zeks/Gabriel? The number of votes going on zeks scares me actually. lol xD | ||
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Oceanic
United States122 Posts
On December 15 2010 08:32 BrownBear wrote: I am here, voting for myself again because I'm not superconvinced by any arguments so far. That said, having Hesmyrr as a (mostly) confirmed town voice is nice. On December 14 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote: I was assuming night hit took priority over voltorbsplosion. I could be wrong, though, forgot about the existence of Mewtwo. On December 13 2010 12:27 BrownBear wrote: Youch. So tree.hugger either voltorb'd one of the two other deaths (probably jcarlson) or he forgot to place one. Well, that sucks. On December 13 2010 10:50 BrownBear wrote: Heh, remember policy lynches? Those were fun. As for not noticing ken's activity... well, herp de derp. I are tired. Who gives a crap. The endless "WHO ARE TEH SMURF" arguments don't really help us find mafia. No... stop. He didn't say he was scum, that would be retarded. zeks is not retarded. Again, why? This is just spam and serves no purpose except to clog up the thread. (I applaud your tenacity with the bbcode though  )At this point, though, I find it hard to paint anyone as definitively scum - zeks has some arguments for him, but has also been this scummy in the past (and been a town). Gabriel is misleading/wrong most of the time, but if he were actually scum, there's no way in hell he'd be this active. Unless that's part of his grand scheme? w/e, those are the two guys I'm currently looking at. Maybe they'll post more and help me paint a better picture. This was what I was gonna do before I got subbed in ^^ On December 13 2010 03:34 BrownBear wrote: iiiinteresting. It seems like town decided (again) to bandwagon onto an "inactive" then all went AFK and didn't switch onto a far more scummy person. Oh well, fairly standard for TL day 1, I guess. I'm still torn as to whether an Alakazam should check zeks tonight, and report back. On one hand, we do want to be 100% sure. On the other, he's proven to be a decent lynch target already, and we really don't want to waste an Alakazam this early... Gah. On December 15 2010 08:32 BrownBear wrote: I am here, voting for myself again because I'm not superconvinced by any arguments so far. That said, having Hesmyrr as a (mostly) confirmed town voice is nice. Here are all of BrownBear's posts in this thread so far unless I have missed any. As you can see pretty much all of it is him saying that he isn't convinced of anything and that he's voting for himself. He also says some things that aren't very useful such as the town bandwagoning on an inactive and some non commital statements about zeks and that perhaps Alakazam perhaps should check him to appear helpful. He hasn't really contributed anything at all since the start of the game. It's probably too late to lynch BrownBear today but I would definitely keep an eye on him day 3. I'm probably voting for him on day 3 unless better arguments come out for someone else. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
1: Town lynching strategy: The plan is to lynch a Mafia here. Pretty simple. The problem is that the mafia can influence the vote, because they are in communication with each other. This looks suspicious if there’s a huge swing though, so they have to do it subtly. The way that we make it hard for the mafia to move the vote around, is to give them very few people to target. The smaller number of targets for the lynch, the less powerful the mafia become. So with that in mind, let’s look at what just happened here: We had two people that we were looking at lynching. Most of the discussion was about them, and they were both looking pretty scummy. Suddenly (less than 5 hrs before lynch), Amber[Light] Posts an analysis of ShoCkeyy, and votes him. I actually agree with Amber’s post, it’s a decent analysis. However, it’s a horrible time to post it! It’s splitting votes near the end of a day, and has the potential to cause confusion, confusion during which the mafia can get away with swinging a vote! What a perfect cover! It’s an actually good analysis, so he must be town, right? WRONG. When you analyse people you have to look at what makes sense. “Does it make sense for a Green to post this?”; “Does it make sense for a Blue to post this?”; “Does it make sense for a Red to post this?”. Look at them all. Here’s what I see: There is NO reason for someone to split the votes like this as a town. An experienced player knows this, and Amber is certainly experienced. So why post it? Well, looking at it if he’s mafia, it makes sense. If the Mafia has a man (or two) on the chopping block, they’d throw up a third person. They might be able to sway enough to save one or both of them. Next, two people actually hopped on the ShoCkeyy vote. Why? “Cause Amber posted a good analysis”. Again, this is excellent cover for the mafia, even if they post their reason for voting ShoCkeyy, they are still splitting the vote, something no good townie would ever do. Last minute switches cause confusion, something that the mafia will thrive in. Amber, LSB and D3 should all know this. A note on my vote here: I voted Gabe, not because I think that he is the most likely player to be mafia right now, I voted him because I was late on reading up on the forum, and didn’t have a chance to put up my alternative early enough for people to evaluate it. I didn’t want to do the very thing that Amber did, so I voted for the most harmful of the two that were on the block. 2: Town Discussion: So far the town discussion has been dominated by Gabe vs Zeks arguments, and it’s not helping the town. The retaliatory blaming, and ego based fighting needs to stop. It’s working really to give the mafia cover. Most of the analysis thus far has concentrated on two people, and that’s not good. Here’s my thoughts on this: Day: (First 24hrs) This is the time that should be spent discussing everyone’s thoughts on who should be lynched. I would advocate that no votes should be posted during this time. Just a big open discussion, where everyone can voice as many people as they want. Day: (Second 24hrs) This is the time that should be spent discussing the most suspicious players from the previous discussion. NO MORE THAN 2-3 AT THE MOST! This is the point where the most suspicious people get more attention, suspects give their defense, and people vote. Night: (All 24 hrs) I actually have less of a plan for this time. Some time should be spent analyzing the voting from the previous day, but I’ve seen a lot of players advocate silence. I personally disagree with this, but I’m not that experienced a player, so I may have missed the reason behind this. This is just an idea, and I’d love to hear everybody else’s plan on how we might be able to utilize the time we have better than we have. 3: My suspicions LSB: I have already pointed out my suspicion of LSB, and posted an analysis. I later said that he’d posted a few things that made him look less scummy, but I was suspicious still, and am more suspicious now, after the vote. Amber[light]: Most of my suspicion is based off of little contribution that I’ve noticed, and splitting the vote to Shockeyy. I’ve yet to go back and analyze this properly, so I’m leaving it at a suspicion. I’ll work on reasons later. (Again, I have not checked this well, so don’t expect me to defend it. I’ll work on it as soon as I get time. Take this as a given for all my suspects.) Eiii: Hasn’t contributed a lot, acted somewhat scummy in general. Not a strong suspicion, but someone I’m keeping my eyes on. Again, I’d like to have someone analyze him. BrownBear: Unexplained voting, and general lack of participation. Fits my profile for a lurking mafia player. Can anyone who has played with BrownBear give us an idea of how he normally plays? D3: Same reasons as Amber[light] ShoCkeyy: Like I said earlier, I agree with Amber[light]’s analysis of ShoCkeyy. I’m not as sure that he is mafia, but he is definitely on my suspects list. I’ll be going over these players, and if I get enough time, I’ll bring up the ones that look the most suspicious to me by the beginning of Day 3, hopefully with an actual analysis. Again, this are my suspects, and a brief explanation as to why. 4: A few final notes: Unfortunatly, writing takes time, and some things have happened since I started that I want to respond to: Amber: There was a point when the votes where tied 3-3-3, so it fits my definision of a bandwagon, though you said something about ShoCkeyy having to be ahead, so I suspect we are working off of different definitions. I just mean a concerted push for someone to get lynched. Infund and D3: Thanks, I’ve never played with double lynch, that makes sense. I agree that we shouldn’t use the double lynch yet. (Tho, it’s weird how deleyed it is. I’d think it’d be hard to make it work out right, but w/e) DTA: Yes, I’d like others to be on stand, but I’ve seen bad things happen with quick lynch switches before, so I don’t support them. If people had been more active earlier in the day, I don’t think this would have been a problem. I’d like to hear from those people as well. I see Oceanic has posted something anyways. Where’s the other three? The fact that they aren’t on my suspect list is a little concerning to me. I’ll have to look at them and see why I didn’t think of them…Hmm. Aaaaannnnd….I just realized that the day ends at 12:00, not 10:00 TL time. So there’s more to this day than I thought. Hmm. I think that this mellows a lot of what I said against Amber. Just mellows, though. Tl;dr: 1: Don’t split votes late in the day. 2: Stop fighting. It’s harmful to the town. 3: I’m looking at LSB, Amber, Eiii, Brownbear, D3, and ShoCkeyy as suspects right now. 4: Various responses to people. | ||
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Oceanic
United States122 Posts
On December 15 2010 08:32 BrownBear wrote: I am here, voting for myself again because I'm not superconvinced by any arguments so far. That said, having Hesmyrr as a (mostly) confirmed town voice is nice. Not committing to anyone and votes for himself again as he did on day 1. Also says something about Hesmyrr that everyone already knew, not adding anything new. On December 14 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote: I was assuming night hit took priority over voltorbsplosion. I could be wrong, though, forgot about the existence of Mewtwo. On December 13 2010 12:27 BrownBear wrote: Youch. So tree.hugger either voltorb'd one of the two other deaths (probably jcarlson) or he forgot to place one. Well, that sucks. In these 2 posts he offers a little insight on what could have happened in the night but the posts themselves are pretty useless as far as finding scum. Spam On December 13 2010 10:50 BrownBear wrote: Heh, remember policy lynches? Those were fun. As for not noticing ken's activity... well, herp de derp. I are tired. Who gives a crap. The endless "WHO ARE TEH SMURF" arguments don't really help us find mafia. No... stop. He didn't say he was scum, that would be retarded. zeks is not retarded. Again, why? This is just spam and serves no purpose except to clog up the thread. (I applaud your tenacity with the bbcode though )At this point, though, I find it hard to paint anyone as definitively scum - zeks has some arguments for him, but has also been this scummy in the past (and been a town). Gabriel is misleading/wrong most of the time, but if he were actually scum, there's no way in hell he'd be this active. Unless that's part of his grand scheme? w/e, those are the two guys I'm currently looking at. Maybe they'll post more and help me paint a better picture. This was what I was gonna do before I got subbed in ^^ Here he complains about spam yet that's all he posts. He says a few things to diffuse suspicion on zeks and Gabriel but against doesn't commit to anything and doesn't offer any new suspects. On December 13 2010 03:34 BrownBear wrote: iiiinteresting. It seems like town decided (again) to bandwagon onto an "inactive" then all went AFK and didn't switch onto a far more scummy person. Oh well, fairly standard for TL day 1, I guess. I'm still torn as to whether an Alakazam should check zeks tonight, and report back. On one hand, we do want to be 100% sure. On the other, he's proven to be a decent lynch target already, and we really don't want to waste an Alakazam this early... Gah. Another spammy post. Complains about the town bandwagoning on an "inactive" player even though Kenpachi wasn't inactive. Then mentions that zeks could perhaps be Alakazam checked but then also goes on to say that we probably don't want to waste a check on him. | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
The issue today that I don't want to lynch Zeks. We're falling with the same trap with lynching Kenpachi. They play like this all the time. Lynching zeks would just be like doing a random pick. However, mafia always has a hand in RNG. I pushed ShoCkeyy because I agreed with D3 that we need to make the lurkers more visible. Amber[Light]'s response was not only OMGUS. He was well justified. Lurker pops up. Randomly votes Amber[Light], tries to hide. So, rather than voting Gabriel, I decided that ShoCkeyy is the better lynch. And after a few observations heres a few things I found Firstly: ShoCkeyy just flat out lurked: He had one post day one that did nothing but explain that "his vote really wasn't a vote" + Show Spoiler [First post] + On December 12 2010 05:51 ShoCkeyy wrote: Alright, I feel like kenpachi is getting way to agressive here. All his post have been aggressive and not helpful in anyway. + Show Spoiler + A) 4 hours does not judge that. what if i went on TL tomorrow for the first time in the past 3 days? B) Anyone who posts would want to look active.. Why would they post if they want to look inactive? C) Why are you assuming i read the rules? how do you know i didnt just assume the KP? D) It doesnt. shh E) ?? its enlightenment F) I dont agree with you voting for Infundibulum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=174831¤tpage=14#270 When he starts saying, that why do people assume that he reads the rules, makes me question him. Everyone reads the rules and we know this because that's part of the game. If he's saying he doesn't that just seems phishy to me imo. I also feel like, he posted the DT or Medic theory in order to try and get some people off of his case cause he can possibly be a TR member. I've seen this happen plenty of times where they pull out the "I might be a DT or Medic" and they end up not being it. My two cents, maybe I am wrong, but this is what I've been able to read off of. Very problemic analysis. Firstly, it doesn’t take an actual position. All it’s saying is “everyone else seems to be voting kenpachi so I’ll join in”. Lets take a look at his points 1) Kenpachi doesn't read the rules. Therefore he is scum. 2) Kenpachi soft claimed blue. Therefore he is scum There are two big problems. 1) Not reading the rules doesn't mean you are scum. It just means that you didn’t read the rules. 2) Kenpachi did not soft claim blue. + Show Spoiler [Night one] + On December 15 2010 04:34 ShoCkeyy wrote: Quoted text Well my reasoning on voting for Gabriel was because in the first round he dodged my vote by the way kenpachi was acting, but then seeing jcarl go now and both of them being Gabriels prime targets in the beginning kinda made me switch over to them. Either way, I find it funny that you only target a quite few of us when actually there is A LOT of people missing that are not posting at all. To name some more, Amber[Light], Tube?... Why don't you target them as well? I don't understand why would you just target a select few of us instead of them and then JUST target me right after wards. I've been busy and reading up on what I could and making my voice count when needed and voting when I needed to. Interesting defense. Immediately he starts attacking the person who pointed out that he wasn't doing anything. And these aren't actually good attacks. Take note that Amber[Light] and Tube were pretty active day 1. Secondly I could and making my voice count when needed Is just lol Secondly ShoCkeyy has been incredibly self centered. He does nothing but protect himself and justify However. every single one of his posts today were either defending himself, or attacking the people questioning him. Instead of not taking a position. ShoCkey starts going all out, accusing everyone. Doing anything he can to try to not become lynched. This is completely different from the ShoCkeyy we know. This could be an overdefensive townie. But far more likely it is a mafia trying not to attract attention day 1. Thirdly: ShoCkeyy had made no mention of Zeks. This is the most important subject today, and he still hasn't talked about Zeks? ShoCkeyy is obviously cutting ties because he knows that Zeks is green. + Show Spoiler + If Zeks is green, lynch ShoCkeyy | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:23 Insanious wrote: Posting this from my blackberry so will be short, but I want everyone to keep in mind BB was a replacement. I don't think many people who get mafia will go and afk and leave a game when they get mafia. Just food for thought... Maybe BB is mafia and someone wanted town/ really didn't have time but just wanted to say BB is a replacement and from what I hear replacements are rarely red. Same logic was used last game in salem which allowed Nemesis to slip through to the end. Lets not use that as an excuse to clear him. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:31 kitaman27 wrote: Same logic was used last game in salem which allowed Nemesis to slip through to the end. Lets not use that as an excuse to clear him. I'd rather a DT check used on BB than a lynch. Of course, we'll never know for sure about DT checks. Hmm... Tomorrow, if our medics are still safe, do you think the DTs should claim? They would be able to tell information about two players. And also the medics could protect them. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:35 LSB wrote: I'd rather a DT check used on BB than a lynch. Of course, we'll never know for sure about DT checks. Hmm... Tomorrow, if our medics are still safe, do you think the DTs should claim? They would be able to tell information about two players. And also the medics could protect them. Why would our dts claimed unless they found reds? Even if they did, they wouldn't necessarily have to claim. Our medics would have to protect them each day and they are vulnerable if the medics are hit. That doesn't make sense. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:37 kitaman27 wrote: Why would our dts claimed unless they found reds? Even if they did, they wouldn't necessarily have to claim. Our medics would have to protect them each day and they are vulnerable if the medics are hit. That doesn't make sense. How about making a list of information of people we would like information on? If the DT check a Red, or two of the people on the list. They should claim. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:39 LSB wrote: How about making a list of information of people we would like information on? If the DT check a Red, or two of the people on the list. They should claim. Huh? Calling for a double dt claim is sounding really scummy,,,,, | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:30 LSB wrote: All right. If Zeks flips green. Take note of this. If he's red, I will eat my words. The issue today that I don't want to lynch Zeks. We're falling with the same trap with lynching Kenpachi. They play like this all the time. Lynching zeks would just be like doing a random pick. However, mafia always has a hand in RNG. I pushed ShoCkeyy because I agreed with D3 that we need to make the lurkers more visible. Amber[Light]'s response was not only OMGUS. He was well justified. Lurker pops up. Randomly votes Amber[Light], tries to hide. So, rather than voting Gabriel, I decided that ShoCkeyy is the better lynch. And after a few observations heres a few things I found Firstly: ShoCkeyy just flat out lurked: He had one post day one that did nothing but explain that "his vote really wasn't a vote" + Show Spoiler [First post] + On December 12 2010 05:51 ShoCkeyy wrote: Alright, I feel like kenpachi is getting way to agressive here. All his post have been aggressive and not helpful in anyway. + Show Spoiler + A) 4 hours does not judge that. what if i went on TL tomorrow for the first time in the past 3 days? B) Anyone who posts would want to look active.. Why would they post if they want to look inactive? C) Why are you assuming i read the rules? how do you know i didnt just assume the KP? D) It doesnt. shh E) ?? its enlightenment F) I dont agree with you voting for Infundibulum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=174831¤tpage=14#270 When he starts saying, that why do people assume that he reads the rules, makes me question him. Everyone reads the rules and we know this because that's part of the game. If he's saying he doesn't that just seems phishy to me imo. I also feel like, he posted the DT or Medic theory in order to try and get some people off of his case cause he can possibly be a TR member. I've seen this happen plenty of times where they pull out the "I might be a DT or Medic" and they end up not being it. My two cents, maybe I am wrong, but this is what I've been able to read off of. Very problemic analysis. Firstly, it doesn’t take an actual position. All it’s saying is “everyone else seems to be voting kenpachi so I’ll join in”. Lets take a look at his points 1) Kenpachi doesn't read the rules. Therefore he is scum. 2) Kenpachi soft claimed blue. Therefore he is scum There are two big problems. 1) Not reading the rules doesn't mean you are scum. It just means that you didn’t read the rules. 2) Kenpachi did not soft claim blue. + Show Spoiler [Night one] + On December 15 2010 04:34 ShoCkeyy wrote: Quoted text Well my reasoning on voting for Gabriel was because in the first round he dodged my vote by the way kenpachi was acting, but then seeing jcarl go now and both of them being Gabriels prime targets in the beginning kinda made me switch over to them. Either way, I find it funny that you only target a quite few of us when actually there is A LOT of people missing that are not posting at all. To name some more, Amber[Light], Tube?... Why don't you target them as well? I don't understand why would you just target a select few of us instead of them and then JUST target me right after wards. I've been busy and reading up on what I could and making my voice count when needed and voting when I needed to. Interesting defense. Immediately he starts attacking the person who pointed out that he wasn't doing anything. And these aren't actually good attacks. Take note that Amber[Light] and Tube were pretty active day 1. Secondly I could and making my voice count when needed Is just lol Secondly ShoCkeyy has been incredibly self centered. He does nothing but protect himself and justify However. every single one of his posts today were either defending himself, or attacking the people questioning him. Instead of not taking a position. ShoCkey starts going all out, accusing everyone. Doing anything he can to try to not become lynched. This is completely different from the ShoCkeyy we know. This could be an overdefensive townie. But far more likely it is a mafia trying not to attract attention day 1. Thirdly: ShoCkeyy had made no mention of Zeks. This is the most important subject today, and he still hasn't talked about Zeks? ShoCkeyy is obviously cutting ties because he knows that Zeks is green. + Show Spoiler + If Zeks is green, lynch ShoCkeyy Are you an idiot? I never voted Amber[Light] till he voted me... Can you actually read the thread before you spew more garbage out of your mouth? I only stated Amber because it's funny how d3 never mentioned him and quite a few others that never really post, but yet, I get mentioned... So of course I'm going to defend myself. I only pointed out that he never mentioned Amber[LighT]... Then all the sudden happy go lucky amber comes and calls me scum for no reason and then votes me. That's not weird at all, of course not, even though I never voted for amber. I only had mentioned his name as to why d3 never mentioned him either. Different ShoCkeyy? I always defend myself in every mafia game I have always played, and funny thing is, last game I played was about a year ago and I was a medic. Nice one, everyone lynched the medic because he defended himself. Keep going down that road and watch the town die. And I'm actually helping the town by showing them the mafia circle that's going on between you, amber and d3. How does Zeks tie with me if he's green? I don't care for him, I cared for Gabriel in the beginning till Amber decided to burst his bubble because I told d3 he never mentioned amber. And this is a NO PM game. And even if I knew he was green, wouldn't that make me a DT? I pushed ShoCkeyy because I agreed with D3 that we need to make the lurkers more visible. Where was this agreeing? The only agreeing I saw between the two of you was to lynch inactives, unless you guys are pming each other or talking to each other through other means (which only mafia can do this) | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On December 15 2010 10:42 kitaman27 wrote: Huh? Calling for a double dt claim is sounding really scummy,,,,, adds more to my reason that LSB, Amber and d3 are scum... | ||
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