Insane Mafia - Page 181

On November 09 2010 01:38 kitaman27 wrote:


So I receive information that you make a hit and there were four hits during the night. Three of them are mafia related and one is unknown. Lets assume there are two vig roles that could kill a scum.

That gives us a 17/19~90% chance you were involved in the mafia hit (actual number doesn't matter, just the fact that the odds were much higher being scum than town). I could have asked nicely for you to reveal your role, but I doubt that would have worked out, so you were put into a situation where you were forced to make a claim to protect yourself. So here are the possible outcomes of your claim:

1) You are a vig variation who killed deconduo
2) You are a scum who fake claimed vig

If the first situation holds true, I can't think of a situation where a mafia would secretly hit one of their own, so you are likely town.

In the second situation there are two possibilities:

1) Another town member targeted deconduo
2) deconduo used his busing ability on a role that triggered his death

With the first possibility the town member who actually made the hit could claim, so until we here otherwise, I will assume that's not the case.

The second part is more difficult to prove. I would think that the town member who made the kill would receive some type of notification that they were targeted, however. Is this a safe assumption?
Seeing as it was obviously NB and DoctorH that was switched by deconduo. If his death had to do with visiting his switch, NB would have already told us about it

As L pointed out, your connection with M-Rus has still not been explained.
Anyone that is infected with M-rus, if they visit someone or is visited by someone spreads the infection to the visitee and visitor. I just asked Artanis and it seems that we won't be notified if someone was infected when they die.We can't confirm this but my guess is that Ace is infected with murrayitis and spread M-rus to deconduo during his visit.

I'm willing to call a truce, unless the town is able to discredit your claim or someone points out a flaw in my logic.

The situation still provided us some useful information, as there were two main groups to be suspicious of:

Those who immediately opposed my claim without a strong reason to believe otherwise.
Specifically: KtheZ, Pandain, youngminii

And the lurkers who immediately jumped on Ace:
Specifically: Nemesis, Glasse, Kenpachi
If I am a lurker, then you are more of a lurker than me before your roleclaim: all of your previous post are no content one-liners. I would say that I've been quite active in the thread, I don't see how I am suddenly a lurker because L says I am.

On November 09 2010 02:51 Hyperbola wrote:
Since when was Pandain proven innocent

And why is everyone suddenly voting for me? Simply because I was inactive? Honestly this is quite ridiculous.

I'm role claiming as a last ditch effort to save my ass, I'm a martyr. I protected Node day one, DrH day two, and infinite story day three.
I'm thinking town is heavily influenced by the Mafia right now which explains all of the random bandwagoning and obvious ignorance of already fishy people.

On November 09 2010 03:57 Veldril wrote:


I and no one claimed that Pandain is innocent. For me, he's on a very short leash and if he's does not provide other reasons we should not vote him, then I will vote him on the next day.

However, looking at the vote count, Pandain would be lynched today quite surely, unless suddenly everyone shift the vote off him.



I vote you because of Dr.H's analysis before he is killed.

But from vote counts so far, I think Pandain would be dead for sure. I am more suspicious of KtheZ more right now, so I'm willing to let you slide for today + after some thoughts, Dr.H's analysis could be outdated. Going to shift my vote to Meapak_Ziphh.

On November 09 2010 01:38 kitaman27 wrote:
\
Those who immediately opposed my claim without a strong reason to believe otherwise.
Specifically: KtheZ, Pandain, youngminii

On November 09 2010 00:46 L wrote:
Ace, does your role have anything to do with m-rus?

On November 09 2010 06:32 Pandain wrote:
omfg im going to get lynched because peopl are inactive/stupid.

glasse-"i'll vote for whoever has most votes"
nb: "follow the bandwagon!"

As for youngmini, what happened to lynching other people than me. Wtf....
RoL, I'd like to hear reasons why.
Infinite, why?
Hyperbola, why?
Kenpachi, -.-. and why?

On November 09 2010 06:40 Glasse wrote:
i think ace is mafia, i think i missed the whole hyperbola thing, why is everyone voting for him?

On November 09 2010 06:46 Kenpachi wrote:

I want to activate my powers .. and you were suppose to die and killing you may lead to findings on KtheZ.. we're still doing that right?

On October 30 2010 09:31 KtheZ wrote:
I would say that godfather would wreak the most havoc as mayor; Thus, I'm probably going to hold off my vote for a bit till I read up on the posts.
However, I'd like to ask DrH 1 question, sorry if it hasnt been answered
How can we be 100% sure you are not scum if there is the possibility of having shapeshifters in this game? Then you can always claim that you "guessed" wrong if you lynch a townie, and DT checks would show up as town.

On November 03 2010 09:22 KtheZ wrote:
Holy crap, I just noticed there were entire posts devoted to me. I'll come out as part of the shattered circle fishball was head of, and that youngminii was indeed added to our circle.

The only way I can now communicate is through this topic, I suppose.

On November 03 2010 09:23 KtheZ wrote:
The only reason I dislike posting is cause i hate having dumb questions, just like kids who raise their hand in class only to be laughed down (cause of their dumb questions)

On November 03 2010 09:24 KtheZ wrote:
I'll try to be more active now.

On November 03 2010 09:42 KtheZ wrote:


This is what I immediately thought of after I read bumatlarge's post. I think its most probably that townies DONT have a virus spreading role; that role is extremely anti-town.

On November 04 2010 07:12 KtheZ wrote:
Just wondering, whats a stick/oracle/masonmaker?

To add to your points:
I agree that it is highly unlikely for there to be 3+ medics, mainly for the reasons you stated.

Since we have lost 2 plague doctors ( Mafia and townie ones), it would probably to be safe to assume theres a HARD MAXIMUM OF 3 left, and a likely minimum of one that is town aligned.
So now since M-itis has become a HUGE kill factor in this game, I'd like to point out this observation:

All townies should consider if they really NEED to perform their role;

Weigh out the risks and benefits of performing your role. Right now, 3 people out of 28 are infected, so there is a ~11% chance of infection (3/27) if you decide to act. Of course, people like PD, medic, VITAL power roles should act, but what im trying to throw out is to:

ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN THE SPREAD OF M-ITIS RATHER THAN SPREADING IT.

This post is intended to deter people from performing their roles without WEIGHING OUT THE RISKS.

On November 04 2010 07:17 KtheZ wrote:
Its hard to believe it was randomly distributed, since noone started with M-itis, and it is MOST probable that mafia chose an outspoken person to infect first.

On November 04 2010 07:20 KtheZ wrote:
Wait how would it favor town in deaths and information? The only information we get is who died, their role, and how much the disease has spread. The information gleaned is relatively useless if the people are dead, isnt it?

On November 04 2010 08:20 KtheZ wrote:
Lets hope I got out of lurker status in time :/

On November 04 2010 08:59 KtheZ wrote:


Read from top up; After browsing through the last 20-30 pages, I find Pandain to be the most scummy right now. His last 2 notable posts are:
1.

I find it quite scummy how he is trying to give directions to the blue roles, while also trying to have the medics mass save this one person. He tries to cover this up by telling PM circles to coordinate, but he knows full well that several PM circles (fishball and bumatlarge for now) have gone to hell.

2. He made an enormous post about how Dr.H is oh so terrible and scummy (on page 109), but it seems apparent to me that Dr.H has already roleclaimed and proven (sorta, not 100% sure) that he is what he is. Also, Pandain has no evidence of being pro-town besides his extreme insistence of lynching the mayor.
3. He parrotted divinek (mafia) ---- Basically quoted from Dr.H

Basically, I think Pandain is mafia because of his insistence on assaulting Dr.H, but lacks comprehensive evidence that he is pro-town.
Pandain mentioned that he would have enough evidence to come forth on day 2 or day 3. Isn't that a blatantly obvious stall for time? If he is DT or ANYTHING he should be able to prove himself HERE and NOW, rather than need several days to compile evidence of his non-guilt. He basically took all the arguments about undefined role against him, and "postponed" them so that he could instead hound Dr.H on what HIS role is.

I'd prefer if someone proved me wrong, but this is what I managed to conclude after reading for like 20-30 minutes of the forum.

I may add more later.

I'd prefer if someone proved me wrong, but this is what I managed to conclude after reading for like 20-30 minutes of the forum.

On November 04 2010 09:04 KtheZ wrote:
Well I just made a post on why pandain, but please, ask me questions rather than tell me to explain myself; I dont really know what "explaining myself" involves saying.

On November 04 2010 09:06 KtheZ wrote:


Oh for realz? FML

Pandain tomorrow then!

On November 04 2010 09:37 KtheZ wrote:
kitaman we can BOTH DO PAGE 5 :D

but with all seriousness, how do I know which page is which O.o

On November 04 2010 10:03 KtheZ wrote:
Just finished looking at page 5. This included most of the shitstorm between Dr.H and pandain, as well as a TON OF NESTED QUOTES WITH PANDAIN IN IT.

What I CAN conclude is that youngminii was at odds with pandain. He noticed the Dr.H - pandain feud, and attacked pandain ( and Dr.H, but to a lesser extent).

Dinner time, bbl.

On November 04 2010 10:30 KtheZ wrote:
Pandain, anyone can scream unconfirmable role if they decide to roleclaim.
Why hasnt Dr.H?

And why are you the FIRST PERSON in the game to claim this?
Also, at least giving details on the CONDITIONS that need to be achieved so you can confirm your role would be nice, instead of this vague stuff we keep getting.

On November 04 2010 10:43 KtheZ wrote:


Basically, I'm bothered that you are claiming to have an "unconfirmable role" when noone else in the game has done this for an extended period of time.
Dr. H said this in the beginning (well, maybe), but nonetheless, we have a solid basis of what his role is.
Considering that you were being extremely anal over how Dr.H was not confirming his role, I find your stalling extremely scum-like.
Anyone is able to say that they have an unconfirmable role. What I am asking for is the details of the conditions you require to confirm your role. You said earlier that you had a way to confirm your role, but it has not occured yet. It would probably be best for town if we knew what this was, so we could confirm you as whoever you are.
There isn't a reason to hold this back; The simple details of WHAT YOU NEED TO CONFIRM YOUR ROLE is not enough to paint a target on you; I would say people like the ADD DT, Dr.H, etc are prime targets for a hit.

On November 04 2010 10:48 KtheZ wrote:
Since we have a claimed ADD detective, I find it HIGHLY unlikely there is ANOTHER TOWN ALIGNED RANDOM DETECTIVE.

On November 04 2010 10:56 KtheZ wrote:

The main purpose of a DT check is to check ALIGNMENT. Other tidbits are just useful to know.
Having two ALIGNMENT DTs in a game doesnt make sense. For example, in haunted mafia(which i failed epically and will make up for), there were 2 dts for 60 people. Now, considering that we have ~ 30-40 people, I find it Extremely unlikely that town has TWO RANDOM ALIGNMENT CHECKERS. For all we know, you could be scum; you never claimed alignment (But you'll obviously claim town). And for all we know you could be lying about your role, your role actions, or anything you want.

EBWODP

On November 04 2010 11:05 KtheZ wrote:


Note that mafia also had their own plague doctor, so there may be role-checkers for the mafia also.
So the standings right now is that you claim to be Garbage collector, and your results have turned up OBVIOUSLY unconfirmable results (who in their right mind would say "I'm not safe omg")

On November 04 2010 11:17 KtheZ wrote:


Not necessarily. Let me correct myself.
I think you have a chance of being mafia because you claim an undoubtedly pro-town role, but we are still unable to confirm it in any way.

However, I am getting second thoughts, congrats.

On November 04 2010 13:02 KtheZ wrote:


How do we DT check you if we're not even sure if there is a DT that can target people? And how will he NOT reveal himself? There isnt (or i dont think) another circle with a confirmed DT that can do this, and if he does, well, mafia just got a prime rib course in their target buffet.

On November 09 2010 00:46 L wrote:
Ace, does your role have anything to do with m-rus? You haven't really claimed vig, but there's a second, unaccounted-for, portion of the kita claim against you. Please answer asap.

In other news: How is it that people who were called out for active lurking have continued to active lurk and aren't being called out on it?

The recent dancing around Kenpachi as a lynch target over Nemesis and Meapak doesn't seem to make much sense either; there's far more evidence of scum play for the aforementioned latter two, whereas the former seems to be getting voted exclusively on the condition that the votes will change.

That's fucking odd bro.

Yeah, nevermind this, I just relooked over the last page. Seems I missed your small EWBOP post on my first read through and I had the hit synopsis you posted on the page before in my mind, so I was wondering why you were saying that you adopted kita's position when you had said the opposite less than 20 posts away.