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On August 26 2010 02:37 zeks wrote:
You are Vanilla Scum!
The ability to kill 1 player per night belongs to you. One of you must PM me a kill for the night even though all of you participate in the kill.
Remember you can coordinate your # picks during the draft phase. The Mafia team this round consists of: Jack, Jill, this bottle and my ecstasy pills!
You win when you outnumber the town, or there is no way for them to stop you from outnumbering them.
see bolded part. Unless that's some meme or some inside joke I'm assuming theres 4 scum?
Right, I guessed 4 as well, it's just not officially posted so there's nothing for Ace to update.
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What worries me here is that if we screw up 3-4 lynches it's quite possible we lost. We don't have a lot of time to sort out claims like this one.
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Hesmyrr
He flips traitor: :D!
Flips town: We know that Chaoser is town.
Please don't confuse roles with alignments.
That said, I will likely vote for Hesmyrr at this time.
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That was supposed to be a quote from LSB. And I guess he meant Rastaban.
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Here's another thought: the mafia can perhaps find it more advantageous to make some crazy claims if they use the vengeful player. That way there is a chance we mis lynch base on the wrong information, AND when we do catch on they get another kill.
I don't actually think SR did this, but I am saying it's a possibility in this set-up.
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On August 26 2010 05:15 Pandain wrote:
Wait... you can't shoot tonight?
If so, what does that mean about the next days lynch. We can't just kill SR tonight then. -.-
Right now we get to lynch someone. Hesmyrr is a good target. Based on how he flips we decide where to go next. Nobody ever said we'd automatically kill SR.
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On August 26 2010 09:45 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 09:24 Radfield wrote:On August 26 2010 09:07 Fishball wrote:On August 26 2010 05:42 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 26 2010 05:41 Fishball wrote:On August 26 2010 04:21 Radfield wrote:On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote:
Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol.
First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it.
As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say.
Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list.
2. chaoser
3. LSB
4. Hesmyrr
5. zeks
If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions.
- Is SR's claim likely to be true?
- If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor?
- If no, who else could likely be the Traitor?
Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it. Did you read the plan? Will reply when I get home (in about 4-5 hours). Bust at work right now. He has time to write all that but not say yes or no? I think the answer we're looking at is not yet. On August 26 2010 06:04 Fishball wrote:
Or the answer could more than just a yes/no.
At home now. I was on lunch break when I wrote the longer post, smart ass. Yes, I do know about the plan. I know it's 33% between CV, Bad Santa or PoD for the fourth draft, but to me at least, CV is guaranteed to be gone. It is one of the more powerful and interesting roles, regardless of alignment, when compared to others. Technically, I would only choose between Bad Santa or PoD, which increases my chance to actually land a blue role, as these two roles are somewhat less interesting (if you are not Mafia) compared to CV. Also, as the first pick, you just have to take CV. Let's say you are Townie, and you don't pick CV; When the town asks you to hit someone and you can't, you're just drawing unnecessary suspicion to yourself, and would most likely end up wasting the towns' resource, or worse, getting yourself lynched. If Mafia/SK doesn't pick CV, and they can actually hit whatever target the town wants them to, that would also be bad since the real CV would know they are lying. This is all probability, but that's just how I see it. It might sound like I'm accusing Hesymrr in my other post due to my wording, but I'm simply questioning his motives behind picking CV. Is it just random, random? Or is there actually more reasoning behind the decision. I realized I was being a bit redundant. Who would confess the second time if a person lied the first time, especially when he is not caught? Anyways, the explanation above is where I'm coming from. The reason we felt it was important to put CV in that list of roles pick #4 should go for, is the possibility of a mafia at pick #1. If Mafia get pick #1, they can let the CV role slip down to another mafia at a lower pick. All of a sudden mafia KP gets doubled, and we have no idea who has the CompVig Role. By having Pick #4 randomize between the first 3 picks, it made it more risky for the mafia to employ this strategy. Siniquity raises a good point, Hesmyrr is more likely to be the traitor given that he has much better cover. Both pick #2 and pick #3 run a decent chance of getting immediately caught by pick #4. Hesmyrr also has his history of being very against a traitor role, which also adds to his cover. He's a strong player though, and a loss to the town if he flips green. Also, we should give suggestions to the SK on who he should hit. SK should be playing pro-town right now, and should be eliminating shady characters, or inactive players. You're missing my point. I'm not blaming you or anyone for putting the CV as the 4th pick. The CV draft chance should rightfully be there due to the exact reason you mentioned. My post above was based specifically on Hesmyrr's scenario; More of an "If I were him, how I would think" scenario. We all know Hesmyrr is not likely to be Mafia, or else he'll just be suicidal. Keep in mind, I'm not denying the chances of Hesmyrr of being Traitor at all. The post above is simply explaining why I asked the question hours ago.
I've been thinking about this as well: ex-ante it makes perfect sense for the #4 pick to promise they will choose one of the 3 roles ahead of them, as a deterrent; however, expecting this to work, when it comes time to actually choose, the #4 pick would in fact have a very low chance to "catch a liar" - much lower than 33% since most likely the top 3 spots did not lie (especially not the CV). So why not choose a different role altogether!
If he chose traitor it is a bit disappointing, but hey... it is what it is. I just hope other people took the strong investigative roles, otherwise we're in for a slaughter.
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On August 26 2010 10:08 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 10:07 BrownBear wrote:On August 26 2010 09:28 Subversion wrote:
shame, pandain always has suspicion thrown on him.
last game i played with him he was also suspected quite a lot, but he was in fact town. not that he's above suspicion, just take ur feelings towards him with a pinch of salt.
To be fair, he was not town, he was ninja (3rd party role). He was just playing more town-aligned. You can also go a game back when he was Miller
That game he was the miller from hell. In general he is a bit like Bill M and naturally fits Ace's description of "obvious scum to the point of destroying the entire game (the easiest to lynch but the hardest to find a trail after they die)".
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On August 26 2010 13:24 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 12:03 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 26 2010 11:49 Ace wrote:On August 26 2010 11:41 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Obvious. He types my name, and breadcrumbs zeks, using my name for the z, so if mafia hit him and zeks is mafia, we know to lynch zeks...hurdur....
xD...
Or he makes a case against zeks, without saying he role checked him. If he starts going against someone he checked, then pops detective.
If he starts saying "blah blah, this person is right, blah blah" then that person is good.
Ace, Does RoleCop return role of mafia if the mafia investigated has another role, such as detective/medic/ect?
6.)What happens if a RoleCop checks someone without a role?
The result they get back is VANILLA. Otherwise the RC would be almost better than the Alignment Cop in this setup which would make no sense.
So if they do have a role the Role Cop...gets a role.
Right...Wow... ##Vote Radfield"Alignment Cop is weak compared to Role Cop" That ends my reasoning. Wow. We just walked down a windy road to death. the hell are you babbling about
I think he must be referring to the early posts by Radfield in which he left our the alignment cop from his top pro-town investigative roles:
On August 21 2010 03:34 Radfield wrote:
OK, lets get the ball rolling here. First things first: Roles.
I've divided the roles into several categories, first is essential town roles. These are roles that we absolutely have to have. This is a 20 person game, and the mafia have a KP of one. SK also has a KP of 1. CompVig has a KP of 1, Town has lynch power of 1. This means 4 deaths per night, so we get 4 days before we're in trouble. Given this fact, we need as much investigative power as possible. This is how we will win the game.
Essential Roles(Investigative)
Role Cop - GF
Watcher - GF, Mafia, SK
Tracker - GF, Mafia, SK
Joat - Mafia
Bullet Bill - GF, Mafia, SK
You may have noticed that Alignment Cop is not on this essential list. This is for two reasons. The sanity of the Alignment Cop is unknown, and the Alignment Cop cannot find either the Godfather, or the Serial Killer. Of those five roles, Watcher, Tracker and Bullet Bill are the most important, due to the fact they can find the Godfather and the Serial Killer. I cannot stress enough that these are the most important pro-town roles in the game. Yes there are a lot of roles that seem cooler or more fun, but these five roles are what will win us the game.
Second is the Mafia roles:
These are roles that are fantastic in mafia hands, mediocre or downright useless in Town hands:
KP roles
Comp Vig
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Other
Floridian
God Father
Role Blocker
Pardoner
A few of these may stand out as being neutral as opposed to pro-mafia, but don't be fooled. ANYTHING that adds additional KP to the game is bad for the town. Why? Obviously first and foremost because they hasten the end of the game for the town, considering that town players have a very bad track record with extraneous KP. Second, not only does a missed shot eliminate a town player, it also eliminates a Power Role. Every player should be assumed to have a role, which means if a town player uses KP and misses, we may lose a vital role for the town. We have lynches as town, so lets kill players that way.
Comp Vig: I've bolded CompVig in that list for a very good reason. I believe that this role is perhaps the most important in the game. In unknown hands (mafia hands) CompVig doubles the Mafia KP. In known hands(Town or Mafia) the CompVig doubles our lynch Power. Each day we vote on who the compvig will hit that night. IE, CompVig: Qatol. In PYP1, the CompVig was held by a mafia, but it didn't matter, because he followed the town direction and killed who we wanted killed. If the CompVig doesn't follow our direction they die.
Yes, in PYP1 the CV only hit townies, but he hit scummy townies that were up for lynch, instead of hitting townies who were playing pro-town. This is a huge difference.
I propose that whomever gets 1st pick takes CV. To not take CV as first pick is, in my eyes, extremely anti-town. We absolutely MUST know who has this role. Once we know, the power of the role is neutralized.
Bad Santa is the other important role on this list, and is the most useful role on the list for town to have because it has a hint of investigative power, and gives information to the town.
The other 6 roles are all pro-mafia roles. Some people are saying we as town should try to take these roles so that mafia cannot get them. I disagree with that sentiment. The better route to go, is to have every pro-town player avoid these roles like the plague(with the exception of CV). This means that our Role Cop(already essential for town), becomes a super cop. Because anyone who has any of those 6/7 roles is automatically a mafia member. None of those 6/7 roles are powerful enough to warrant us blocking the mafia from getting them, so we should steer clear of them and give ourselves a bonus on investigation. Also, by leaving DayVig, Bad Santa and Vengeful Player(??) for the mafia to take, it makes Bullet Bill much stronger by him not getting confused by pro-town players with guns.
Other Good Roles for Town
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
These roles don't really need any explanation. They are all much more pro-town then pro-mafia.
This leaves the last three(unless I missed some):
Mason
Martyr
Copy Cat
Mason is powerful in the right hands. Martyr is so-so. Copy Cat is not real important in my eyes, given that we start with a lynch, so the mafia can't snipe the CV and then scoop it up. However, if we lynch someone on Day 1 who is Vanilla, then we run the risk of having mafia take the CV via the Copy Cat, which would be very bad for the town. For this reason, I think we should have whoever is at pick #5 be responsible for taking Copy Cat. Thoughts?
If mafia chooses to take the pro-mafia roles, that's great. It gives us more effective investigative powers. If mafia chooses to avoid the pro-mafia roles, that's also great, as it keeps the most effective power roles from the mafia.
We should probably have some way of divvying up the 5 essential roles so that we know they all get taken. Possibly divide the first 15 draft picks into 5 groups of 3, and give each group 1 of the essential roles. 1-3 Role Cop, 4-6 Tracker, 7-9 Watcher, etc. Then whichever player wants an investigative role knows which one they can pick. IE, the 7th player wants an investigative role, so he knows that his option is watcher. Something like that. Thoughts?
To recap: We prioritize the essential 5 roles for town and make sure they get taken, no town players take any of the pro-mafia roles, first draft pick takes CV, 5th draft pick takes Copy Cat.
The town has the advantage in this set-up, we just have to be smart enough to use it.
Please address as many points here as you can. Agree or Disagree. This is when we make our plan for the entire game.
The thing is, Radfield said this before the game had even started, when he didn't know his role yet:
On August 06 2010 19:29 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 05:27 Ace wrote:On August 06 2010 01:10 Radfield wrote:
No more Impatient Mason, that's too bad. It has huge potential as a fun role.
As far as Bullet Bill goes, which players are carrying guns? All mafia, both Vigilantes, the SK and the Jack?
Edit: I assume that this is following a strict day/night cycle just like PYP1. IE, Day always ends at 9PM EST I kept thinking about Impatient Mason and realized it could probably be the most abusive role in the game in the right hands so I took it out ^_^. Yeah, I was planning on taking the Impatient Mason role if I was Town this game. I had a decent plan of action and it would've been super fun for me  I feel like no one is ever going to take Alignment Cop. With a 50% chance of getting a useless role(naive and paranoid), and 3 or 4 other good investigative roles out there, it's just too much to risk your pick on. Also, just a little reminder to everyone. After the draft you will need to PM the role you want to Ace, he's not going to PM you to ask. Last game like 5 of the 20 people didn't choose a role, which made things way harder for town then they needed to be.
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Is BrownBear still in this? Today's lynch target is clear but tomorrow I want to see more activity form some people.
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On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power.
In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us.
Let me show you what I mean.
First, posts that add no content:
On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man.
you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr.
chaoser:4
Pandain:6
Bill: 7
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that)
I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us.
rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1
On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
Number Claims (Please tell me if you change)
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
Pandain: 12
Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game):
On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote:If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler +Floridian
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Comp Vig
Martyr
Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy.
Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later:
On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote:
If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know.
The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town.
Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message:
On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote:
No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping.
LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything:
On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote:
Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan.
But why is Day Vig a mafia role?
After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate.
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On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote:
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs .
Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan.
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On August 27 2010 02:26 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:20 citi.zen wrote:On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power. In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us. Let me show you what I mean. First, posts that add no content: On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote:On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man.
you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr.
chaoser:4
Pandain:6
Bill: 7
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that)
I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us.
rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1 On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
Number Claims (Please tell me if you change)
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
Pandain: 12 Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game): On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote:If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler +Floridian
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Comp Vig
Martyr
Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy. Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later: On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote:
If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know.
The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town. Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message: On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote:
No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping. LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything: On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote:
Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan.
But why is Day Vig a mafia role? After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate. You paint a picture of me that is completly incorrect and then you claim that I am not following it and therefore call me out? I am not recklass. I do not argue with anyone untill I am certain that they are mafia. I might have made a mistake about Ace, but your preformance was desicive, in a bad way. Look back at my posts in the games. I am analytic, I discuss plans, and I look at incentives. Please don't spread wrong information
You misunderstand: I am NOT criticizing your play last game. On the contrary, I agree entirely with your description of your style that game - analytic, discussing plans, looking at incentives.
What bothers me is your are NOT doing any of that this time around. You are merely trying to blend in, making long posts that offer no new information and proposing "plans" that do nothing.
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On August 27 2010 02:36 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:32 citi.zen wrote:On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote:
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs . Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan. I know what I am talking about. That post was to explain that I had not found a flaw in his plan The fact that there is no pms is why i decided not to expand on my idea Just wondering. So why did you not include that post in your "analysis" of me? Is it because its easier to twist my words to fit your own thoughts? Why did you not include any of my real Day 1 posts, and instead settle on my posts to help keep track of things? The person you portray does not exist
You mean real posts like this one:
On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power.
Even you know that was weak, so you followed it up with this:
On August 27 2010 01:55 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 22:35 rastaban wrote:On August 26 2010 21:22 zeks wrote:
I was never sold on the fact that PoD is a pure anti-town role.
I mean sure its two night phases we skip a lynch (most of the time we lynch one of our own) and mafia gets 2 kills - but doesn't it also give our town roles more chances to act? (ie. cops get double the checks)
We'd also have more information going into the next day to make a more educated lynch. It's just essentially a no lynch don't see how it can give scum a big advantage which is what people have been suggesting.
Having said that I am against a no lynch tonight just cause I think its imminent to nab the traitor Well it is a no lynch and 48 hours of discussion lost. At least in a no lynch you learn what wanted the no lynch and get some voting patterns. I don't see how you could not realize that it is incredibly bad. Here is what we have barring medics and extra NKs: 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 3 (lynch, SK, Mafia) 15 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 11 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 7 Thats right we have 3 lynches and 2 comp vig kills to nab mafia or SK before we run out of time. That means we have to nab mafia in one of those 5 hits (OR the SKs) or we can't win the vote. Now I agree it is likely we will but, to pretend like a no lynch or Prince of Darkness isn't a pure mafia role is terrible miscalculation. 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 6 (lynch, SK, Mafia, SK, Mafia, Me) 12 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 8 See while it seems funny that the day vig killed BM because he tends to spam post or you might find him annoying it, this is why Radfield I believe pushed so hard for town not to take KP roles. That 1 extra KP puts us at instant lose if no mafia die by second lynch if PoD activates. Please stop trying to find ways to use the PoD, its ONLY use is to help mafia. if it activates, we kill them end of story. @Opz, this is also why role cop was considered so good. If town took 0 KP roles then when RC found one we could lynch them, it also made BB able to lynch when he found a gun since it was mafia. Since we now have the day vig claiing to be town, and possibly others this method isn't as sure fire, because BB will find he has a gun just like he finds mafia have a gun. RC sees him with a KP role, that we left to go to mafia. If your wondering about my post, it is to say that I arrived at roughly the same conclusion that you did I really wan't to hear Paldian. Please explain yourself and your motives
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Oh, how I love the word scummy. And long posts that add real information!
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Sunshine and puppy dogs :-)
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On August 27 2010 11:00 Hesmyrr wrote:
Of course, I really may not be understanding the benefits of PoD case since ~OpZ~ ninja post seem to be supporting it, but if Radfield suddenly starts acting scummy it is something to take note.
You said it was "noteworthy" instead of "odd" or something stronger, and Opz misunderstood the rest of your post it seems.
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On August 27 2010 12:58 LSB wrote:
I'm trying to figure out why SR wants us to lynch him.
There has been a lot of suspision on whether or not SR is geniuine. SR could be trying to lynch himself to prove that there is a traitor.
HOWEVER. This would be wasting two lynches for very little information. A very promafia tactic
This casts some doubt on my side
On the other hand, there is a lot of suspicion on SR. Possibly he could be a mafia going on a sucide run, seing how much damages and fake associations he can make before he dies.
The real question then is, is 1 town dead due to Vengeful Player worth 1 mafia?
If he's red and vengeful you could argue it's more like 2 townies for 1 mafia, plus the wasted time. I don't know if it's "worth it" for them though.
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Be careful telling blues what to do, that can easily be used by the mafia using watcher or some other role I haven't thought of. It's important we say who we find suspect, but from there the blues need to draw their own conclusions, not be directed to specific targets this early on.
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EPT
