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TL Mafia XXX - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 06 2010 10:06 GMT
#320
im going to bed. mafia on my wagon = 100% likely
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 06 2010 10:25 GMT
#324
I am not a fucking jester
if you all lynch me the town is being wasteful
Pyrrhuloxia, there is no fucking way you know at least "4 of my teammates", unless you are mafia, and have deducted a list of town, but then you could still have a ninja mixed in and might be wrong even then.

I do not see why you are throwing walls of text and tunneling on me at all. Could it be because you are trying to push a policy lynch and stifle any real discussion? I ended the RVS so we could actually discuss what we are going to do as a town.

Why would you want to end the stage of the game where the town throws ideas out there? I'm sorry you disagree with my idea. Usually the town does, but that doesn't mean that we wouldn't win if we used it.

After having just modded the last game, I realized something: The people the mafia try to kill are the ones that are trying to organize things (Subversion, zeks, laxercannon, etc), not the ones who are trying to policy lynch or are overly emotional (DTA, you, BrownBear, even me in past games)

You know why the mafia won't try to kill me this game?
Because I am like Stonewall Jackson, shot by my own troops. When I flip blue you all will really feel like idiots.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 06 2010 10:27 GMT
#325
On August 06 2010 19:19 youngminii wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 29 2010 13:12 flamewheel wrote:
Ninja (Ninja)
You will know how many other Ninjas reside within the town, but the town will not.

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 19:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Also, 9 people will lie. You forgot ninjas, youngminii. So we will get at least 9 liars to pick through, 3 of which will be ninjas we don't need to kill. Actually, we will have at least 10 liars because I already sent the following PM to BM:

Uh oh, someone made a huge blunder.

Pyrr is very likely a ninja.

he sent me this PM too:
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Ninjas have two lives. Unless you are the third ninja. But you aren't. Maybe he is in your employ. Doesn't matter, though. Your only hope (maybe) is to lynch me today. Good luck with that.


When he sent me that, I assumed he might be a ninja. I didn't know they had two lives.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 06 2010 22:54 GMT
#431
On August 06 2010 22:18 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 17:40 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 06 2010 17:26 Bill Murray wrote:
As a town, we would really do well to coordinate and roleclaim in my opinion. Bluesniping would be easier, but honestly here at TL we are great at blue sniping. I haven't even HEARD the term blue sniping elsewhere. I'm guessing it comes from muta micro, but I'm not sure.

My suggestion is that we coordinate better if we know what units we have on the field. The mafia will be forced to lie, and if we coordinate early enough there is no way we can lose all of our good pieces. Every game where I've seen people nameclaim or roleclaim I've seen the town win as far as I can remember. Do you guys want to win? I am very competitive. I know I like to. I will risk my life for you guys. Feel free to claim to me. If everyone would just trust me this one time, we could have an epic game.

Dude, just shut up and let us kill you already before I figure out who the sixth and final member of your team is. Y'all have been so obvious about this when you should have just kept your cool and waited for people to change their joke votes. Instead, you freaked out with well over 24 hours left in the day and only a few votes on your precious comedian.

If anyone legit claims to him you should be permanently banned from TL mafia. I'm not really joking although I am too kind hearted to follow through on this.

Feel free to spam his inbox with joke claims, though, it could distract him from coordinating what they do next. In fact, I encourage this.

##vote Bill Murray


Lol best post of the last 5 pages.

Sorry BM I think a mass roleclaim is a terrible idea. I never like the idea in any setup for mafia since it really can mess up the flow of the game. Not to mention people (especially townies) have this odd obsession with lying. Let's review your last game that you hosted.... people were lying left and right about their roles. It definitely hurt the town as we had to focus on the liars and much of the attention was drawn off of suspicious players, like BC who was actually mafia.

I'm a bigger advocate of town circles and mob mentality. It's not that I think this system works better in all instances, but it keeps the mafia on their toes for much of the game. If we all roleclaim honestly then they have a perfect list of all of the roles in the game.

I'm not going to vote for you, yet. However I will reconsider if the day turns out a little differently.

that's not what i was trying to do here, though, amber. i was trying to create confusion and get information out of the people who would be against roleclaiming (mafia and ninjas). Do you honestly believe I expected a single person to actually roleclaim to me? I did, but it was through a PM, not in the thread. Why would I ever do that in the thread? Because my role is the only role i know. I'm willing to back off of this, because it was a ploy, and now i'm going to help the town in more traditional ways.

Also, mad props to chezinu for that video

On August 06 2010 22:28 LSB wrote:
A bit of a late reply, but some of us sleep

My Big Ninja Post

Okay, I skimmed through XXII
In XXII there were 4 assassins
The first assassin got killed on the first day due to inactivity
The 2nd and Third assassins got killed by other assassins on night 2.

So from older games, the assassin's biggest danger are other assassins

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 12:08 DarthThienAn wrote:
Hmm. I agree that Ninjas can be very powerful. But I don't really like your breakdown.

Ally with mafia: This requires the Ninja to know who the mafia are. It also requires the Ninja to reveal who he is, which is retarded, because that makes him vulnerable, and his objective is to SURVIVE. So this is almost impossible, unless the Ninja takes a plunge based on his instincts... which is pretty silly.
Let's assume that he finds a mafia through rolecheck though (talking about later in the game now). The Ninja still has no protection. He has no way of guaranteeing that the mafia won't kill him during the night. And he can't post after death, so all the power to the mafia there. There's no collateral, no guarantee. And mafia will never know who a ninja is, except through a DT, which is also a ridiculous situation unless the DT claims to the GF after a check. So it only really makes sense for the Ninja to PM the mafia member. But why would he do that? The mafia use up his night hits, and then kill him, if they want to. Not to mention, the Ninja just wants to the kill the other ninjas. He doesn't care about town/mafia dying.

Ally with Town: this is a bit more likely, but still requires the ninja to know those people. But again, why would a ninja be interested in doing this? He just wants to kill the other ninjas. Unless he gets in contact with DT, there is no benefit for him.

Ninja caught by DT: Are you kidding me? lol. People reading, this is an example of a bad plan. The ninja is a VIGILANTE. He can easily kill the DT if the DT threatens to expose him.

... -_-


I agree with your Mafia Analysis, but not your Town analysis. The Ninja could get Medic protection, and DT help. Just remember, the Ninja obviously won't just say 'hullo' to a random townie. The Ninja would try to find a DT/Medic

As for your Ninja caught by DT analysis, you misunderstood what I was trying to say.
The Ninja caught by DT plan isn't one about working together, it's about the DT keeping the Ninja on a short least

Here's how it would work out
1) DT identifies Ninja
2) DT contacts Ninja through a mouth, threatens Ninja. Says "You better work with me or I'm exposing you the day after you don't"
Ninja could respond by
1) Killing the Mouth, but then he would get killed himself loosing the game
2) Feeding the DT incorrect information. But the DT could just ask for Night Kills
3) Following the DT and hope the other ninjas would die soon

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 12:01 Divinek wrote:
or they could just play normally and not listen to anyone and do as their role meant to do

it would be ridiculous for them to try and coordinate with town, obviously easy to do with mafia once they found them but...why would they do this?

it'd be a perfectly dick way to ruin a game

They could play normally, however, it's more of a game of how much risk is the ninja willing to take. A little risk could make the Ninja invincible with another pair of eyes.

As for ruining the game.
Show nested quote +
On July 29 2010 13:12 flamewheel wrote:
9. Play to win.


Here's my diagram
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



NOTES:

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 19:19 youngminii wrote:
On July 29 2010 13:12 flamewheel wrote:
Ninja (Ninja)
You will know how many other Ninjas reside within the town, but the town will not.

On August 06 2010 19:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Also, 9 people will lie. You forgot ninjas, youngminii. So we will get at least 9 liars to pick through, 3 of which will be ninjas we don't need to kill. Actually, we will have at least 10 liars because I already sent the following PM to BM:

Uh oh, someone made a huge blunder.

Pyrr is very likely a ninja.


Assume that Pyrr is a Ninja, and there is only 3 in the town.
Pyrr will be killed night one, so there will be only 2 Ninjas.

I doubt any ninja would actually kill him. They would investigate him first. I also don't see why people are even worrying about the ninjas that much at this point. The only other game I've played with them, when I was mafia, the only people who were really saying anything about them in the thread were the mafia themselves. I feel like we should look at the people who are doing this. The reason that mafia do this is because it gives them a truthful statement about wanting to "out a scummy slot", because ninjas are in fact non-town, and by trying to out them, the mafia look pro-town. If you are town, then, and are discussing this, stop. Start trying to find reds.

Pyrrhuloxia imo wouldn't have been playing the way he was if he was red, which is why I haven't voted for him. DTA, though, maybe. I might change my vote to him.

On August 06 2010 22:29 LSB wrote:
And I am against Roleclaim.

Their's no way we can keep track of who would lie. And I would assume that Blue Roles would lie to. Cause a role claim is a great way to give a 'who to hit' list to the mafia.

So I would assume the final count of the role-claim would be 30 townies, not very helpful

I agree with lying if you're a certain blue. If you're the veteran, you should say you're a role you'd want to be hit in the night. This normally would be a great strategy, but less so in this game. I dislike how in the past few games I've played in multiple roles have multiple night lives. This really inhibits the plan that I would use as a veteran, so I don't know what to do.

What we should do going forward is try to get our watcher and stalker to coordinate, which is why I wanted people to roleclaim to me in the first place.

On August 06 2010 23:14 XeliN wrote:
For the record in my brief experience of playing mafia games I know mafia HATE suggestions of mass role claiming, I am far more suspicious of Pyrr's extreme vehemence against the idea than I am of Bills suggestion.

Not entirely sure it would work, in truth I havent actually read the post Bill made yet, but just wanted to say Mafia typically hate the idea of town mass roleclaiming, it forces them into a difficult position where they have to be very careful about what they post//claim.

Although the fact this is a closed setup (role amounts arn't revealed) makes a mass claim strategy flawed from the outset.

Also be dubious of people attempting to cast extreme suspicion on others this early in the game, A good example of such would be:

"I think BM is very likely to live for a couple of days, but if things start going downhill he should be somewhere on the top of our hitlists"

If more people thought like this, my plan would have been less of a ploy, and an actual strategy. If anything, I was just hoping to know who the tracker was, but I didn't even expect that.

On August 06 2010 23:39 KF91 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 14:54 Jayme wrote:
I still hate voting for inactives on day one because it's so pointless.

and the random voting stage is already over after only a few hours...???? Oh incoming bandwagon


I believe that this is one of the best ways to start off Day 1; mostly because like it was mentioned before, people do make mistakes and they shouldn't be lynched right away because of a single mistake they made on Day 1.

Plus it promotes involvement, but I'm sure everyone's heard this countless times already.

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 18:10 DarthThienAn wrote:
BM, you're basically introducing an incredibly scummy plan. If you really think mass roleclaim would be beneficial, then please explain why. And "It worked in other games" is not a reason, seeing as how every setup is different. How can you say everyone claiming would be beneficial if you don't even know how many blues we have? Until you elaborate, my vote is on you, even if I don't like the bandwagon on you.

"The mafia will be forced to lie, and if we coordinate early enough there is no way we can lose all of our good pieces."

Mafia can easily claim townie, or a random blue. We don't know how many of each role there is. So we wouldn't be able to call any of them out on their fake claims. So how would we catch a mafia lying, unless they claimed a role that requires results that we can see?

##vote Bill Murray


From what I know of BM, this is classic BM to me (Although the last game I played with him was XXII, so things could have changed.). He promotes some weird plan and the town attacks him. He ends up being Godfather. But from what I can remember, he also pushes plans like these when he's a townie as well.

From BM's point of view, this is just a trap for the mafia, because although it would be harder for the town to sift through all the liars in a mass-role claim, it would be harder for the mafia to organize who would claim as what.

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 23:18 love1another wrote:
I'm a confirmed townie please. Don't kill me plz


Um, hi? If you have time, feel free to type more, since an "activity-check" post won't save you from getting lynched forever.


Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 22:52 rastaban wrote:
I just realized spoiler my plan made it less likely to be seen and critiqued which defeated its purpose so here it is again

Plan, Please Review

It involves 1 person role claiming TODAY. we then protect this person and use them as a confirmed townie. Now here is where the plan takes shape. Since mafia can stack our protection will fail and he will die, but wait we actually have something even better. a Bus Driver. The bus driver will now perpetually Bus our claimant.

Instead of the bus driver being an element of chaos he becomes the towns best medic. Regardless of if they Triple stack him he won't die. Even in the hands of a beginner this role would be now be powerful as they would be certain to using it for good. Another benefit is that it gives the blue roles the knowledge of if they hit the bus driver.

Say for a minute that we use the vigilante. Now we can be sure there is only one in this game since it is such a strong role. If a DT checks someone and he gets vigilante then he knows he hit the other end of the chain and will know to disregard that nights reading. We have just eliminated the early chaos that this role generates. The other thing is that the mafia now knows if they risk hitting vig there is a chance it will fire back on them.

Ok now I used vig in this example because he seems the best candidate but I could be wrong so town can advise. If we have the vig claim we know there will be only 1 (since otherwise town KP would be crazy) if we get 2 then we lynch both. This means we trade 1 vigilante for 1 Red with a 50% chance that the real vig stays alive.

There are a few outliers that could happen and I am considering them now but thought I would put this plan out as early as possible so in case we go with it all parties would have the most time to see what was going on possible.


From what I see, bad plan. So much risk for the town while the mafia has to give a small effort to make sure that the town is screwed over.

- If mafia roleclaims as a blue, this plan won't work period.
- If a real blue does roleclaim, but the bus driver buses the wrong person, we could hit another blue (Perhaps one of out DTs or medics)
- The mafia has power-roles that could turn this plan onto the town and the town could be lynching townies on Day 2/3 depending on if this plan is actually implemented.

IMO, single roleclaims=bad at any point of the game. Or actually, any type of roleclaims; while it may prove useful to the town, it will always help mafia in killing blues.


I disagree since we have a watcher and stalker/tracker. We can use these roles to confirm the tracker with a single roleclaim.

On August 07 2010 07:15 DarthThienAn wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On August 06 2010 22:28 LSB wrote:
A bit of a late reply, but some of us sleep

My Big Ninja Post

Okay, I skimmed through XXII
In XXII there were 4 assassins
The first assassin got killed on the first day due to inactivity
The 2nd and Third assassins got killed by other assassins on night 2.

So from older games, the assassin's biggest danger are other assassins

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 12:08 DarthThienAn wrote:
Hmm. I agree that Ninjas can be very powerful. But I don't really like your breakdown.

Ally with mafia: This requires the Ninja to know who the mafia are. It also requires the Ninja to reveal who he is, which is retarded, because that makes him vulnerable, and his objective is to SURVIVE. So this is almost impossible, unless the Ninja takes a plunge based on his instincts... which is pretty silly.
Let's assume that he finds a mafia through rolecheck though (talking about later in the game now). The Ninja still has no protection. He has no way of guaranteeing that the mafia won't kill him during the night. And he can't post after death, so all the power to the mafia there. There's no collateral, no guarantee. And mafia will never know who a ninja is, except through a DT, which is also a ridiculous situation unless the DT claims to the GF after a check. So it only really makes sense for the Ninja to PM the mafia member. But why would he do that? The mafia use up his night hits, and then kill him, if they want to. Not to mention, the Ninja just wants to the kill the other ninjas. He doesn't care about town/mafia dying.

Ally with Town: this is a bit more likely, but still requires the ninja to know those people. But again, why would a ninja be interested in doing this? He just wants to kill the other ninjas. Unless he gets in contact with DT, there is no benefit for him.

Ninja caught by DT: Are you kidding me? lol. People reading, this is an example of a bad plan. The ninja is a VIGILANTE. He can easily kill the DT if the DT threatens to expose him.

... -_-


I agree with your Mafia Analysis, but not your Town analysis. The Ninja could get Medic protection, and DT help. Just remember, the Ninja obviously won't just say 'hullo' to a random townie. The Ninja would try to find a DT/Medic

As for your Ninja caught by DT analysis, you misunderstood what I was trying to say.
The Ninja caught by DT plan isn't one about working together, it's about the DT keeping the Ninja on a short least

Here's how it would work out
1) DT identifies Ninja
2) DT contacts Ninja through a mouth, threatens Ninja. Says "You better work with me or I'm exposing you the day after you don't"
Ninja could respond by
1) Killing the Mouth, but then he would get killed himself loosing the game
2) Feeding the DT incorrect information. But the DT could just ask for Night Kills
3) Following the DT and hope the other ninjas would die soon

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 12:01 Divinek wrote:
or they could just play normally and not listen to anyone and do as their role meant to do

it would be ridiculous for them to try and coordinate with town, obviously easy to do with mafia once they found them but...why would they do this?

it'd be a perfectly dick way to ruin a game

They could play normally, however, it's more of a game of how much risk is the ninja willing to take. A little risk could make the Ninja invincible with another pair of eyes.

As for ruining the game.
Show nested quote +
On July 29 2010 13:12 flamewheel wrote:
9. Play to win.


Here's my diagram
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



NOTES:

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 19:19 youngminii wrote:
On July 29 2010 13:12 flamewheel wrote:
Ninja (Ninja)
You will know how many other Ninjas reside within the town, but the town will not.

On August 06 2010 19:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Also, 9 people will lie. You forgot ninjas, youngminii. So we will get at least 9 liars to pick through, 3 of which will be ninjas we don't need to kill. Actually, we will have at least 10 liars because I already sent the following PM to BM:

Uh oh, someone made a huge blunder.

Pyrr is very likely a ninja.


Assume that Pyrr is a Ninja, and there is only 3 in the town.
Pyrr will be killed night one, so there will be only 2 Ninjas.


With the ninja allying with town thing, basically, the medic would be trading their services for the ninja's services..but the ninja could just lie and get protection. So it's not in the interest of the medic to do that.

The DT can't control the ninja... he has no power. He has no way of guaranteeing that he'll live to out the ninja. The ninja can hit him whenever he feels like it. The only way is to PM someone else, and even then, you're sacrificing a DT for a ninja? No. Best to leave the ninjas alone if you're a DT.

Hmm. I guess it makes more sense with a mouth. You should have mentioned that before -_-.

+ Show Spoiler +
On August 06 2010 23:39 KF91 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 14:54 Jayme wrote:
I still hate voting for inactives on day one because it's so pointless.

and the random voting stage is already over after only a few hours...???? Oh incoming bandwagon


I believe that this is one of the best ways to start off Day 1; mostly because like it was mentioned before, people do make mistakes and they shouldn't be lynched right away because of a single mistake they made on Day 1.

Plus it promotes involvement, but I'm sure everyone's heard this countless times already.

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 18:10 DarthThienAn wrote:
BM, you're basically introducing an incredibly scummy plan. If you really think mass roleclaim would be beneficial, then please explain why. And "It worked in other games" is not a reason, seeing as how every setup is different. How can you say everyone claiming would be beneficial if you don't even know how many blues we have? Until you elaborate, my vote is on you, even if I don't like the bandwagon on you.

"The mafia will be forced to lie, and if we coordinate early enough there is no way we can lose all of our good pieces."

Mafia can easily claim townie, or a random blue. We don't know how many of each role there is. So we wouldn't be able to call any of them out on their fake claims. So how would we catch a mafia lying, unless they claimed a role that requires results that we can see?

##vote Bill Murray


From what I know of BM, this is classic BM to me (Although the last game I played with him was XXII, so things could have changed.). He promotes some weird plan and the town attacks him. He ends up being Godfather. But from what I can remember, he also pushes plans like these when he's a townie as well.

From BM's point of view, this is just a trap for the mafia, because although it would be harder for the town to sift through all the liars in a mass-role claim, it would be harder for the mafia to organize who would claim as what.

Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 23:18 love1another wrote:
I'm a confirmed townie please. Don't kill me plz


Um, hi? If you have time, feel free to type more, since an "activity-check" post won't save you from getting lynched forever.


Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 22:52 rastaban wrote:
I just realized spoiler my plan made it less likely to be seen and critiqued which defeated its purpose so here it is again

Plan, Please Review

It involves 1 person role claiming TODAY. we then protect this person and use them as a confirmed townie. Now here is where the plan takes shape. Since mafia can stack our protection will fail and he will die, but wait we actually have something even better. a Bus Driver. The bus driver will now perpetually Bus our claimant.

Instead of the bus driver being an element of chaos he becomes the towns best medic. Regardless of if they Triple stack him he won't die. Even in the hands of a beginner this role would be now be powerful as they would be certain to using it for good. Another benefit is that it gives the blue roles the knowledge of if they hit the bus driver.

Say for a minute that we use the vigilante. Now we can be sure there is only one in this game since it is such a strong role. If a DT checks someone and he gets vigilante then he knows he hit the other end of the chain and will know to disregard that nights reading. We have just eliminated the early chaos that this role generates. The other thing is that the mafia now knows if they risk hitting vig there is a chance it will fire back on them.

Ok now I used vig in this example because he seems the best candidate but I could be wrong so town can advise. If we have the vig claim we know there will be only 1 (since otherwise town KP would be crazy) if we get 2 then we lynch both. This means we trade 1 vigilante for 1 Red with a 50% chance that the real vig stays alive.

There are a few outliers that could happen and I am considering them now but thought I would put this plan out as early as possible so in case we go with it all parties would have the most time to see what was going on possible.


From what I see, bad plan. So much risk for the town while the mafia has to give a small effort to make sure that the town is screwed over.

- If mafia roleclaims as a blue, this plan won't work period.
- If a real blue does roleclaim, but the bus driver buses the wrong person, we could hit another blue (Perhaps one of out DTs or medics)
- The mafia has power-roles that could turn this plan onto the town and the town could be lynching townies on Day 2/3 depending on if this plan is actually implemented.

IMO, single roleclaims=bad at any point of the game. Or actually, any type of roleclaims; while it may prove useful to the town, it will always help mafia in killing blues.


And from what I know about BM, he has the potential to play like an idiot both when he is mafia and townie. So I don’t judge based on playstyle, I judge based on what has happened in THIS game. And his plan is retarded, hence my voting for him. He still hasn’t offered any reasoning as to why this would ever be a good plan. And if it’s a trap, then it’s not a very good one, as no one is going to agree with it, and he’s not even trying to pretend like he agrees with it.

Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 05:18 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
The only thing really sticking out to me is the strange and over-reacting response to BM's plan by DTA and Pyrr.

Bill Murray's roleclaim was horrible, since there are concealed counts. In fact, it is not only stupid but it is so entirely transparently stupid that I'm sure BM knew it was bad when he posted it. So why did he post it then?

Because mafia love to shoot down stupid townie plans, since it makes them appear pro-town. The difficulty is that good town players will also shoot down those same plans, since they want to win the game and all that.

Right now anyone voting for BM is either jumping the gun or behaving suspiciously.


Lol, is it my fault that I don’t want the town to screw itself over? I have no guarantees about anyone’s intelligence here. Example: Bill Murray.



fuck you. I have a 135 IQ and got a 29 on my ACT.



Anyways, my plan is this: Have the tracker claim in the thread, to me, or to someone we as a collective agree upon. Have him call his shot. Afterwards, the watcher will watch the tracker and see who he visited. Bam. We have a confirmed slot.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 06 2010 23:03 GMT
#432
On August 07 2010 06:43 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 22:29 citi.zen wrote:
On August 06 2010 22:14 zeks wrote:
As much as this game is about analyzing and question everything

Its also about trust - laying out possibilities and probabilities. Townies ain't going to be able to win without communication and teamwork. Not everyones going to be a DT and have rolechecks to 100% confirm someone - for those that aren't DT you have to draw the line on who's reliable and who's not. I think eventually everyone should be reaching out to someone during the duration of the game.

Right. Not even "trust", it's "calculated risk". This is what everyone does in every single mafia game, Incognito included.


In this case, your calculations were wrong, primarily based on the assumptions of what other people would/should do. Also, there are different degrees to calculated risk. Plans like the one you came up with are huge and can swing the game in either direction. When the range of results is that huge, there will be people who will oppose you.



All of this is applicable to what I'm trying to do here
Benefits of my plan:
a confirmed townie
Detriments of my plan:
having our tracker potentially killed, or us being confused if he is bus driven

Reasons the benefits outweigh the risks:
PMs

If we can organize a town circle through the tracker (we're going to need our blues to focus on him via medic protection and watching), we can win this game very easily as a town.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 06:59 GMT
#640
I'm going to catch up and try to scumhunt. I'm putting my vote on Love1Another just because I don't want to be lynched. I am trying to win for us as a town, not for those bloody reds.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 07:08 GMT
#641
On August 07 2010 08:12 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
BM:
"that's not what i was trying to do here, though, amber. i was trying to create confusion and get information out of the people who would be against roleclaiming (mafia and ninjas)."

Show nested quote +
You get no info out of that because no one should trust you. Townies should shoot this down because it is hella far from safe. Mafia should shoot this down if you aren't mafia. The only ones who should shoot this down are mafia members if you aren't mafia.


I am honestly not mafia. I am pro-town, bro.


BM:
"Do you honestly believe I expected a single person to actually roleclaim to me?"
Show nested quote +
Yes, because you admit so in the next sentence and conclude this post asking for more roleclaims. Also, if you are red even one claim is helpful. If you are blue, then you would have had to get all of the claims, which it should be obvious beforehand you would never get.

Excuse me, but you are assuming that asking for them in the thread and expecting to get them out of the thread are the same thing. They're not. Sorry.

If I ever really wanted a claim, I would make it public, so we could lynch someone who is lying.


BM:
" I did, but it was through a PM, not in the thread. Why would I ever do that in the thread?"
Show nested quote +
PM is even less safe if you are mafia because then only mafia gets the info. Plus, you conclude this post saying tracker can claim in thread.

Exactly, so I sort of give myself away that I would want it public if anything. If everyone honestly roleclaimed to me as a blue, though, we would win the game. Do I expect people to believe me? No. I would find them idiots for doing that. I am not mafia, so I don't really care, but I was just going over possibilities and trying to get a reaction out of people by posting some sort of content on a mediocre day 1.
BM:
"I'm willing to back off of this, because it was a ploy, and now i'm going to help the town in more traditional ways."
Show nested quote +
Yeah, except your new plan is almost as bad.

All for the information. It generates discussion. I actually like confirming a townie, so I disagree with you, but the fact that I'm exploring possibilities instead of being negative and a policy driven nazi that stifles discussion and creativity...

BM:
"Anyways, my plan is this: Have the tracker claim in the thread, to me, or to someone we as a collective agree upon. Have him call his shot. Afterwards, the watcher will watch the tracker and see who he visited. Bam. We have a confirmed slot."

Show nested quote +
We won't have confirmed shit. Assuming the claims are real (and we can't even be sure we have one of each of these roles) we will have a role blocked tracker and no progress. Maybe if it was claimed to someone trust worthy but I don't have any 100% trustworthy candidates yet. But they sure as hell can't claim in the thread. Also, it will be so easy for someone to fake claim watcher and just say yes he saw him, or no he didn't depending on what mafia want to do, because either one is plausible. And if we have multiple claims for tracker or watcher, how would we decide to go from there?

There won't be multiple trackers, I disagree.

Show nested quote +
Also, if it is so smart for blues to claim in thread, and you are blue, why aren't you claiming? Maybe you could've started a bandwagon onto your plan if you showed your commitment to it. If you are blue, I hope you don't claim. But it's just another inconsistency in your logic.

There is no inconsistency depending on my role.
Show nested quote +
Also, if we are comparing i-peens my IQ is 145 and ACT was 33. Yay autism.

Good for you, man, you might be smarter than me. I'm glad your IQ is that high. Since it is that high, are you in MENSA? If you are not, why not? That is above a 140, which should enable you to be in that.


University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 07:17 GMT
#642
On August 07 2010 09:05 BrownBear wrote:
lajarse could possibly be scum, but let's get everyone talking before we make a concrete decision. We still need to hear from Roffles and a couple others.


This post is scummy as fuck.
I am keeping it separate from my other posts to make it be read again
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 07:53 GMT
#644
On August 07 2010 12:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:03 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:55 Divinek wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:48 chaoser wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:42 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:37 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
[quote]
Because I think he's red and if he flips red we can try the same thing with someone else. If he survives this lynch he can take the GF role and claim vet and put himself on vet and your plan can't help us determine whether he is a real vet or fake vet.


just because you THINK he's red doesn't mean that's good enough of a reason to jeopardize a plan which could result in possibly two red's being captured or a 3way blue circle. Please, unvote him right now.

? I just explained how if he is red than your plan is useless. This also means that if he is a blue role that doesn't visit, your plan is useless. Your plan can be done with a lot of different people; it doesn't have to be BM. Your plan made sense till LSB pointed out that Godfather cannot be tracked. Then it got a lot more iffy and I want to go after the highly likely red as fast as possible.


If godfather cannot be tracked, than we know he is GF and lynch him. WE got a certain GF than.
Otherwise, without that knowledge there is just as great a chance you are lynching a blue. Plus, my plan revolves around BM claiming blue. Without him, than we still won't have a circle if mafia fakes as a tracker.

GF cannot be tracked. Townie cannot be tracked. Veteran cannot be tracked. GF can appear as veteran or townie if desired. BM has already lied a few times this game. If he changes his claim to townie, would anyone care? He can also say he is a vigi and didn't want to waste his hit during the first night and use a real hit or mafia kp hit to claim later.


even if they can't be tracked, watcher still sees tracker and if it's just the two then it's all gravy


the thing is i think pyrr wants to push for bm's lynch and if he's our target for this then he cant really do that. which is understandable

so it'd be perfectly reasonable to switch it to someone who we know we dont really want to lynch on day 1. Because while i doubt bm is going to get lynched it'd still be nice to leave him open to the possibility

i mean we could like do it on someone like me or pandain, or uh i dunno you? someone who probably would never get GF because then we KNOW that person isnt mafia

because the only way a tracked person isnt mafia is if they are the GF

because even if you track a mafia member and they hit a medic or something

"If you track Mafia, then you will be led to the scene of the first target on the Mafia hitlist."

you're still led to a scene so you know exactly what happened and what the person you are tracking is

this all depends on the fact that mafia havent already chosen their gf and if there is any cut off for doing so, other wise bm is as good as anyone else really unless we really want him to die

Rules say mafia don't have to decide GF until end of day 1. I think we should wait until Day 1 ends and choose a target right at the start of Night 1, so blue roles have time to see and follow the plan. And we should just choose one of the inactive peeps at random, since the chance of them being GF is awful low. A tracker looking at a low-level player will probably see them go after someone on the hitlist if they are mafia since such a player would probably not be GF. This seems a much more safe use of Pandain's plan than BM.


If he can't be tracked, than we go after vets and we get a GF. Everyone will mass roleclaim to watcher and tracker and from there we can find out who's who hopefully.
Also, I think in nearly every one of my scenarios we either get
1. Two confirmed reds
2. One confirmed
3. Hidden GF in vets
Either way, we will need a double lynch. I am voting for double lynch and urge others to do so.
In which case

Everyone can claim to watcher and tracker if the plan goes well regardless of whether or not BM is involved. Choosing someone high-profile like BM just makes it more likely that it will get fucked with.
If BM is GF, Your plan is to kill off everyone that claims vet, after forcing all vets to claim? Whether BM is GF or real vet that plan sucks.
I'll vote double lynch tomorrow if BM flips red. Otherwise I don't know who to go after and I don't think we will tomorrow. Day 2 double lynch is usually bad for town - I don't think this game is different. If I knew BM would be lynched today I'd vote double lynch but this is still up in the air.


how the fuck am i not involved
it was my idea in the first place to utilize these 2 roles
which is totally pro town
but ok
you're not a good lynch
keep convincing everyone of that, pyrrhuloxia
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 07:59 GMT
#645
On August 07 2010 12:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:44 Pandain wrote:
On August 07 2010 12:40 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 12:35 Divinek wrote:
it's still quite unlikely a noisy neighbour is going to visit bm that night

we can easily just get every townie that gets a pm from the 'watcher' to say he did and if it's more than say 1 or 2 , two would easily be even pushing it, then all the blues can know the watcher is a bullshitter.

and besides like said the mafia would have to for sure hit every blue on that list accurately and there's just no way mafia could come even close to doing this

because all the people that visit him KNOW they did it

Yeah. There are a few fake claim opportunities I listed to watch out for, but I find this to be the best plan yet.

Don't think we should use BM, though. It would probably be best to pick someone we are most sure is not a ninja, or someone from the PL Finals list.


BM is NOT a ninja. I can guarantee you that 99.99%. His play has been WAY too active, too risky, too lynch-inducing to be a a ninja.

Yeah, I can guarantee you 99.99% he's red and so I'd rather just see him go today *shrug*. Can't be too lynch-inducing when he's already out of the noose thanks to SouthRawrea's change (not necessarily fosing SR btw).

im not fucking red, stfu
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 08:06 GMT
#646
On August 07 2010 08:13 rastaban wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 08:05 Pandain wrote:
How about we in the thread just say "okay, now all you people visit THIS GUY's" house. the people don't even have to claim. Than the watcher can meet up with the tracker and we have a town circle already. With no suicide bomber, we have no risk either.

OMFG WAS THIS AN ACTUAL IDEA!?!? That might be good??????

I know, I'm scared too O.o
Comments?


Hmm it almost might would work...

What the watcher though doesn't know who is who... the mafia can send their roleblocker or framer that night and now they are listed as verified. at first I thought mafia could hit him but the watcher would get the name of one of the mafia so it wouldn't be beneficial.

Hmm I don't straight up disagree it might be an option but needs thought out a little more... Anyone else have any thoughts on this?


lol i like this idea, but i don't know if it will work.

On August 07 2010 08:33 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
KT 4-0 4-1 4-2 4-3 3-4 2-4 1-4 0-4
My unbiased and fun-inducing plan for determining THIS GUY:

Roffles (4-2 Either Team)
Hesmyrr (KT 4-3 SKT1) (KT 4-1 SKT1)
Artanis[xp] (KT 3-4 SKT1) (KT 1-4 SKT1)
They posted at least a bit so less likey ones here:
Laaan (KT 4-0 SKT1)
Love1Another (KT 0-4 SKT1) (If love1another gets lynched, put this on Laaan)

I guess it's not too guaranteed they will die for being THIS GUY since mafia can just send roleblocker or framer so we don't need to pick from inactives but I think this will work anyway.

by saying this guy and not that guy, are you implying you're kicking it as his place?

On August 07 2010 08:41 Pandain wrote:
Some new things I've thought about since the power went out for like 5 minutes:
1.If we do get this circle going, shoudl the tracker/watcher claim publically? Then we could get people to even possibly roleclaim to them. And get medics protecting them and the such. The only problem I see with this is if they then get shot or the such, but with medics idk. Or if the mafia false claims, but then both the watcher and tracker can go together and say "No, we both agree we're blue." The mafia could risk 2 red, but I would view that as a reasonable trade and even a dt check or so could straighten things out.
2. Don't really see the need to pick a specific person, just anyone imo. But yeah, let's do it for the Proleague finals. >

I'm all for this too. SKT hwaiting? Where's my SKiTten flamewheel?


REALLY liking the discussion between Foolishness and Pyrrhuloxia at the end of page 23 and the beginning of page 24. One of them is mafia, I guarantee it. I'd go all in on that.

On August 07 2010 09:28 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 09:22 Foolishness wrote:
On August 07 2010 09:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On August 07 2010 09:16 Foolishness wrote:
I for god hope Pyrry is going to post his "list" of the 6 mafia (or 4 or 5 or whatever number you're sure on).

And to let you know I have a bunch of posts from mafia of previous games (not necessarily you) who all say something like "I got this mafia list figured out" or "I think I know who's mafia but I'm not going to say unless I really have to". It's pretty common to see mafia members do this.

I look really forward to hearing your response when I post good information about how you're mafia. I also look forward to you getting people to spam away my good post when I do post it (assuming you don't post your list, which, let's face it, you know you won't).

If you're pro-town, you'll post your list and give your reasons. There's no reason to wait. The more information in the open the better we are.

I'll post when BM flips.

What if BM doesn't get lynched (for whatever reason)?

Well you will probably kill me tonight, so I will post all my info anyway, mafia number 2. You are my favorite player in all of TL Mafia, at least when you are town-aligned, so I am disappointed to see your red play be so obvious.

You've now chainsaw defended Bill Murray against both Divinek and myself. Now, if Bill Murray flips blue, I will certainly not run roughshod after you and the rest of his sketchy defenders and defendees. But if he flips red, which seems EXTREMELY likely to me at this point, your ass is grass and killing me won't save you.


This is an old as play, and it only works when Foolishness is town-aligned, which he is not. He or you are red. I'm not sure which. I'm staying out of your little sissy argument, Pyrrhuloxia. I'll watch you guys fight, sorry, don't try to bring me into this.

On August 07 2010 12:53 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 12:51 bumatlarge wrote:
Ok ignore the fact that i stated pandains plan was in action 10 pages before he brought it up.

I adapted mine from BM's plan where he said both watcher and tracker can RC to him. Than I said what if they just both track an anonymous person.
Don't see what it would mean anyway :/


I wanted the tracker to claim in thread, honestly, regardless of what I said. He could call his shot, and watch who he said he was going to watch. Vigilantes and Ninjas wouldn't want to be outed day one. He could then get medic protected, and the watcher could watch him.


On August 07 2010 13:18 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 13:13 Pandain wrote:
How bout, with my plan, we add a DT checking BM. IF he turns out Vet, and DT can PM watcher, than we lynch him, because it's hella unlikely that he just HAPPENS to be those vets. Also, watcher can also ask for other vets to PM him counterclaiming just in case.

Would be nice if BM could tell us what he is or comment on the plan.

I can tell you what i'm not! --- Red.
More than you can say.
On August 07 2010 13:20 Divinek wrote:
Heyy

Pyrr! Pandain!

since you're among the two dudes actually reading the thread whaddya think?

it's an UPDATE on my larjarse

+ Show Spoiler +


hey lets look at larjarse's latest posts!

On August 07 2010 01:54 larjarse wrote:
TBH rastaban is also looking quite suspicious. He is trying to do so much planning as a townie. I WANT THE MAN DEAD


retarded spam

On August 07 2010 02:11 larjarse wrote:
Valid point, rastaban. I am just G checking you to get some text.. As you can see, I haven't change my vote.



retarded spam

On August 07 2010 01:50 larjarse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2010 23:18 love1another wrote:
I'm a confirmed townie please. Don't kill me plz


LOLing that noone said anything about this. And once he proclaimed that he is a townie, he was voted by rastaban and chaoser. Suspiciousssoo


blah blah blah it's been said before

On August 06 2010 15:04 larjarse wrote:
Can you stop talking about previous games? It kind of ruins the fun.


spammmmm

On August 06 2010 14:57 larjarse wrote:
I would say BillMurray's concern about not being randomly voted to be killed justifies that he probably isn't a Townie.


what the fuck does this even mean? lol

it loosk like a reason without a reason

On August 06 2010 14:44 larjarse wrote:
BTW this leaves BillMurray and divinek tied at 3 votes each.


blah blah we can all read dude

ok you're getting my vote until you actually fucking post some content


On August 07 2010 12:00 larjarse wrote:
Divinek saying I spam spam spam on pg 23:

This is my first game. You also excluded my posts that had content. So vote me if you please and calm down your e rage, bro.


I voted BM becauese I instinctively feel like he's up to no good. If he's actually good, then oh well, it was a 1/6 chance anyways and it's only the first day. Many can sit here and theroize why people posted what and everthing, but you probably aren't going to know who anyone is today.

Pyrrhuloxia United States. August 07 2010 10:12.
I think we should be suspicious of people who defend others so early..


I agree!


Divinek again targeting me on pg 25: speaking of which lets have a look at some inactive or people that have posted basically nothing thus far 1)lasjarles(or whatever) !!!


Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:20 Divinek wrote:
also remember if tracker doesnt get anything from bm that either means he's town, gf, or ninja. But we should know the ninja thing cause no one will get anything, though the only way we know if these people got nothing is if they publically claim, so maybe we should have someone to do this for on day 2 as well so they dont have to publically tell us? Even though the odds are low
(at least i think if you track gf you dont get the info tracker normally would get)

so he doesnt have to be cleared, i think


And the roleblocker/framer can change the entire story. Divinek seems sure that BM is going to be watched tonight and is posting his expected results to further defend BM and thus fuck over the town if he is actually scum.

Show nested quote +
On August 07 2010 11:46 Divinek wrote:
On August 07 2010 11:42 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Maybe your plan isn't useless in the previous mentioned situations; it would be more accurate to say that it doesn't get any better by using BM and it could get much worse by using BM.


i agree

id much rather lynch him or one of the inactives and use the watcher/tracker thing on someone else



So lets lynch him, and see what happens.

Reading more bickering yadda yadda.. Okay lets just lynch BM and see what happens. Okey? Ok. Then maybe DivineK.



since he posted a big post ill summarize my feelings of what he said here

1)he said i neglected his content posts, i quoted ALL of his posts (well okay not all i skipped two at the start that were one liners of stupid spam that everyone was doing at the time since the game JUST started so i figured they just fit in so they didnt count, but i assure you they are spam!), so he's lying LoL lets get to that later though

2) he says something we have already discussed at lenght long after that post was made, so his post is pointless rehashing of what we've covered

3) He really wants to lynch bm just to see what happens?

Thanks for not helping town! Not, you look reaaaaaaaaaaaaaal bad buddy


i dare someone to say he's been useful to town in anyway so far, can someone give me a reason not to vote for him?

other people should read it too but i just wanted their attention extra special

The attention seeking Divinek does in this post comes across as very pro-town to me.

Also, why are we lynching someone who is going to be town and modkilled anyways? Let's just lynch Pyrrhuloxia or Foolishness because of pages 23/24... at least we get information that way as to which of them was mafia.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 08:40 GMT
#651
i'm not red bro
you need to drop that
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 08:48 GMT
#653
it's true
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 08:55 GMT
#656
no
what we need is the tracker to claim, in thread, who they are going to track.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 09:01 GMT
#658
the medics would know who to protect, then. the watcher watches him, and confirms whether or not he's lying. if he isn't lying, the watcher doesn't even need to claim. he can pm him if he wants, or not. i'd prefer if he didn't pm him, and didn't say anything, unless the tracker is lying.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 09:07 GMT
#660
your plan turns into an unorganized clusterfuck in which we will not be able to get any information at all. my plan turns into 1 confirmed townie and outs only 1 person who can be double medic protected. Does the mafia really want to triplestack on a double-protected tracker? I don't think they would.

Anyone who is against this is probably mafia
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 09:10 GMT
#662
if the tracker claims, we only need 1 claim, and we can start pming him what roles we have on day 2
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 09:11 GMT
#663
if he gets confirmed by a watcher, that is
i can't believe noone had even discussed this. everyone was wanting to waste our vig or trade a busdriver for a red or a ninja and that is just plain stupid
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 09:12 GMT
#664
i agree that you have done a pretty good job of adapting my plan, but i do not think the way you have taken it is nearly as good as the way i intended it originally. the way i want to do it is playing 1 card at a time, not laying them all down at once. We can keep going if it works. If we lose our tracker because our medics are dumb and/or inactive we can just shrug it off. It's not like we lose any kill power as a town that way.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
August 07 2010 09:24 GMT
#666
you tried to steal my plan
if anything, your plan is like my plan, except it is worse because it risks a lot of blues potentially, whereas mine risks one.

respond to why we should lay all our cards out on the table when there are roleblockers, framers, and ninjas lurking out there, and convince me, and i'll back off. i want this whole planning stage to end, really, so we can start scumhunting
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
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