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If you ask AFJ I was with him from the start of the whole MooCow debacle. He provided the analysis, I provided the other justification and advantages of lynching him over deuce. I will state my thoughts about the whole voting process before all the night actions. I also think it would've been pretty redundant for me to analyze MooCow again after such a detailed analysis had been written by AFJ, which I found convincing.
I do take reponsibility for fucking up and hitting a green, but I don't regret getting Moo hung over deuce. I accept the fact that I'm much less credible now.
As for my post #915 - me arguing that the original bandwagon aren't mafia. It was not my intention to imply that although I do think AFJ is pro town. I was unimpressed by the fact that MooCow was just randomly pointing fingers at everyone mildly suspicious for the whole game. Once AFJ started attacking him he got all defensive which was what I found fishy. Also, to be honest I never would've thought we actually had a chance to lynch MooCow until the final 30 minutes and people started switching over - then the impossible happened.
I never knew it was common for Mafia to be inactive - I haven't personally gone through many Mafia games myself so I wouldn't know, but I would assume there would be a mix of active and inactive - and I still maintain that getting rid of the active ones is more important.
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I'm thinking that the mafia in deuce's list were riding on the fact that they had such an established bandwagon (15 or 16) at one point that why would they bother switching over anyway. The MooCow wagon didn't come close until pretty much the very end and totally caught everyone off guard.
So LD RC'd Townie?...interesting.
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Back from night class was expecting post but guess we might have to wait a little longer
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wait don't we have some inactives dying too tonight
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My first real stab at clue analysis and its against 3 Lions (I'm just piecing stuff together):
Before he could withdraw the gun though, something flew through the air, blinding pyr0ma5ta as it hit him in the face. As he clawed at the suffocating object, it released an electrical shock that brought pyr0ma5ta to his knees.
(One of) 3 Lions' favorite player is Effort and Effort recently beat Flash in OSL so it was a "flash" that blinded pyr0ma5ta?
As he lay there, stunned, he heard footsteps approaching him. The last thing pyr0ma5ta would hear was the sound of his killer's heavy breathing.
3 Lions also has a pic of a bboy and bboys have a lot of tricks and steps so after he got tired and started to breathe hard?
Anyways off for the night. RIP AFJ we needed you man
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On June 10 2010 06:56 LaXerCannon wrote:
Best Outcome
If onihunter flips red, it would make DTA that much closer to being a townie. We can start developing a town circle and proceed from there.
I think this applies even if oni flips miller.
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****THE FOLLOWING ASSUMES ONIHUNTER FLIPS RED****
Key things oni has said:
I'm still not convinced about MooCow. He's pretty active, and losing him would legitimately be a loss for us if he flips green. Deuce, on the other hand, is 100% useless and, whether he flips green or red, it's not BAD for us. If we kill MooCow, we're letting deuce live another day (WOOHOO!) and we lose a contributor if MooCow's green, which is more likely imo. So I'm keeping my vote on deuce.
....Wtf I did not catch that. I wouldn't go so far as to say that he "follows mafia threads" and "posts like a retard," since thats only one thread and the only retard here is deuce, but that's a major hole in his story, since he's supposed to be a newbie. As I promised, I'm switching to MooCow (which probably won't change the voting results, but, hey, it might).
Leads me to think that deuce should be green as well.
If MooCow was red I doubt oni would've switched because he'd be increasing the chance of a mafia dying (voting was sort of tight at that point). He only switched because MooCow was green and he probably wanted to even out the mafia votes...he probably felt that too many of them had stacked on deuce. Plus of course he knew both were green so it didn't matter who died. He switched because he felt safe switching since we had a large stack on MooCow already he wouldn't be that suspicious.
Key people he did analysis on
neutral for AFJ (Page 43)
neutral-town for littlechava (Page 43)
neutral for zyrre (Page 43)
neutral-mafia for DCLXVI (Page 43)
I skimmed over his analysis, theres probably some hints in there but I'm hoping someone else will do it ... if not I'll do it later. Take note that he definitely picked specific targets to analyze to achieve something.
Personally, I'm not "very certain" about either of them, but definitely more so for YI and DTA (since they are both very active and have given good tips/strategies), so that narrows it down.
Between the two, I'm more comfortable with voting for DTA because he's less provocative and seems to be more level-headed. Also, Darth lacks any clues (at least right now) so I've decided (finally) to vote for him. Really, both seem fine to me, but my gut says DTA.
My vote for first lynch would also go to laxer since he's on both lists, making him the best choice imo.
Agree with laxer being safe.
What I'm saying is, the active will most likely be not targeted or will be protected, so 3 townies will almost certainly die tonight. Am I right in my analysis?
Needed clarification and confidence to make sure all the targets mafia hit go through. With all the discussion on protecting active players mafia chose 2 people who would certainly die and went for a lucky shot on MTF.
but on the other hand, if you're mafia it's easy to hide...
I wonder wtf this means.
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On June 10 2010 12:40 LunarDestiny wrote:Very simple answer. Maybe he played mafia before and knows that when someone declares someone else mafia with a dt checks, then the accused would almost always be lynched.
No his declaration of finding mafia through a DT check is only justified because I think for the past 50 some pages he has established himself as more town than mafia.
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^ dont get what that is supposed to mean? You still think deuce is mafia?
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I'm semi convinced cause oni was so willing to stack on him early and it was only at the last moment that the wagon was derailed - seriously doubt that the mafia saw that coming (also our vigi AFJ was the wagon starter)
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^ correct myself i'm not semi convinced i'm 99% convinced
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so unless somehow the mafia saw into the future that AFJ was gonna make some epic post
then deuce would've died; and if deuce was red the mafia would've stacked on one of their own which makes no sense (Note that most of the voters for MooCow were people who switched from deuce)
Some mafia definitely switched over to MooCow to even out votes (ala onihunter) but I'm pretty sure most of them are stashed on the deuce list.
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Gila list:
LaXerCannon - forgot who analyzed him but we kinda established he was protown because oni had suggested he was mafia / lynching him (something of that sort don't quote me) in the beginning of the game
pyr0ma5ta - dead, confirmed town
CompX
bumatlarge
so that leaves CompX and bumatlarge and it doesn't help that they voted near the end
CompX pretty much posts only after day/night posts and I would say bumatlarge needs some analyzing if it hasnt been done already.
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Don't understand how you can be confident on the people who stuck on Deuce the whole time. If the whole night went by the book (AFJ w/o his epic post) 80% would've voted on deuce thus there would have to be mafia in the deuce list.
I just want to note I never switched, my first vote was cast on MooCow not that it matters to most of you but I understand your suspicion YI (besides I've been suspicious to most of you since the beginning, don't know why though I think you guys should read over all my posts).
As much as the voters near the middle on MooCow should be suspected, the ones on deuce should be too - so many of them are inactive/useless. Plus I always thought you were in support of lynching inactives first
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On June 11 2010 08:48 crate wrote:
@zeks, DCL:
The wagon against Deuce was derailed by Darth. Don't mistake yourself that LunarDestiny put on the killing blow or that AFJ made the first argument and vote. Darth was a six-vote swing AND he's the mayor AND I gather he has the town's trust. Mentally remove Darth's vote-switch and go look at the voting history; there was no chance that MooCow was gonna die. And then suddenly with one swoop that at least I didn't see coming he's two votes away.
I have acknowledged that multiple times in my past posts. Mafia could never see it coming that MooCow was going to die. Regardless seeing that something was forming they needed to balance out the votes.
zeks
-I notice his name doesn't have a capital "Z"; I feel like he's playing an awful lot like he did in Pyrry's game so I think he's town (even down to the exact same type of slip-ups). Most likely not a power role unless perhaps it's veteran.
As far I as remember I never played since after Pyrry's game rofl ... or maybe one game don't remember which one I was medic for. Regardless I didn't do so hot in either.
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#1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established.
It would have stayed there if the MooCow argument never existed. If AFJ never came up with the MooCow thing we'd have something like a 17-5 vote split for deuce and Gila respectively.
#1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues.
If 3 Lions is red would that not practically clear my name?
#1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round).
Losing MooCow would be only a slightly bigger loss than deuce (like 1 millimeter more). I won't argue how effective MooCow was the whole game, but sure I accept the fact some people think MooCow was more useful than deuce.
#1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly.
The MooCow bandwagon was started by a townie. Mafia used it to cover themselves up by spreading the votes evenly and to take out a better player (most of you agree MooCow was more useful than deuce). They were taking advantage of our "mistake" if you want to call it that.
#1213 Again says he's sure that most of the mafia were against deuce.
Yes, until the MooCow option came up for them.
#1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others.
Because I think without MooCow they would've possibly spread their votes with Gila. Then the MooCow thing came up so they used him instead of Gila.
I'm still pretty sure zeks is Mafia.
Well I said what I said I feel like I'm incriminating myself now for being so defensive all of a sudden. But the main point I want to establish is how mafia was distributed in those voting lists.
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Nice clue tracking LD *high five*
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I guess its justice after losing 2 vigis
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I've been active on the thread but not so much on the PMs. The only people I've PMed are AFJ, DTA, and LD and not much of our PMs were of substance. The whole game everyones been wary of me so no one tells me anything.
I'm probably the person that has had the most people point at me - if I'm not #1 probably #2 or #3
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EPT
