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Pick Your Power Mafia! - Page 48

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
May 09 2010 04:41 GMT
#941
Actually....I think Citizen might be GF...Zona and citizen supported Alignment check kits...

Foolishness, hit citizen or qatol. That's my opinion. Zona also through some support behind citizen twice, but I doubt they both woulda picked 12[1]...

Check the vote lists....

Zona wasn't on the first one...
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
May 09 2010 04:42 GMT
#942
On May 09 2010 13:38 Korynne wrote:
Gee chill out. I did my own number analysis to agree with Qatol's verdict on assuming citi.zen is pretty much innocent.

If my "sheep ass" causes town to lose then you didn't do your best to stop it from happening. There's good players and bad players, and if you're going to just say fuck everyone else I'm better than you then you're not very helpful to town winning as a whole. This isn't a game where you win if you found all the mafia, it's a game where you have to convince the entire town to lynch the mafia.

More days = more time to analyze, but also less tries for town. We already mentioned that.

If we don't lynch anyone and tell Foolishness not to compvig anyone, then we are left with 4 townies and 1 mafia tomorrow, at which point we lynch someone, mafia kills someone, and we're left with 2 townies and 1 mafia and we make our final guess.

If we do lynch someone, Foolishness compvig's someone, then mafia kills someone, we're left with 2 townies and 1 mafia tomorrow. The difference here is that we killed 2 suspicious people and mafia kills someone that's pretty cleared, whereas in the case where we don't lynch, we kill 1 suspicious person and allow mafia to kill off 2 people that are pretty much cleared. So clearly lynching is better than not lynching.

What do you mean less tries?! Because you get to choose?! Instead of being able to REACT to new developments....Less EDUCATED tries. -_-
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
Korynne
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada990 Posts
May 09 2010 04:51 GMT
#943
Mafia will kill least suspicious people.
If you thought it was definitely either Qatol or citi.zen would you rather:
1. Wait until mafia killed Foolishness and then decide who to lynch between Qatol and citi.zen
2. Lynch/compvig Qatol and then lynch citi.zen tomorrow?

It's not like mafia's going to go ahead and leave us very innocent looking people for the last 3 alive...
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
May 09 2010 04:55 GMT
#944
I dunno....

Check the citizenvsqatol mafia support....In the archive...
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
Korynne
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada990 Posts
May 09 2010 05:04 GMT
#945
>.>

The point is in the second situation you can just lynch both of them and not have to worry. If you trust your judgement that much to be able to tell which of your top 2 suspects is the mafia, then you should've helped us way more in the beginning with hunting mafia. >_>
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 09 2010 05:51 GMT
#946
On May 09 2010 13:55 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I dunno....

Check the citizenvsqatol mafia support....In the archive...

Well, I was so wrong in this game, it's not even funny. Real life meant I haven't had the time to dedicate to the game so I tried to play based no partial information and "instinct". Turns out I can't do that.

I thought Radfield was town, and that there was no way he could be SK. Score!

I kept acting like a basket-case on Qatol: I hated his "numbers theory" arguments (which fared pretty damn well thus far), as well as the regimented suggestion of who should pick what roles. When I saw this post it fit so well with my views I was pretty sure Zona was town:

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 02 2010 05:08 Zona wrote:
I'm glad someone's stepping up with the first proposals for the town. Yet once again, in yet another game, I have to take issues with the blind spots in the plan, as well as the "I declare it, thus it must be so" tone and mindset.

Show nested quote +
On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote:
I want the town to deny the mafia the most powerful roles or at the very least control their use. We can't stop the mafia from taking roles to increase their KP, but we can still control who gets what role and try to keep the mafia away from the 3 most important ones: Inventor, Compulsive Vigilante, and Role Blocker. Why are these roles especially important? The first 2 provide the mafia with kill power EVERY NIGHT. The third one allows the mafia flexibility to get around this plan.

I think it's clear to everyone that Inventor and Compulsive Vigilante are by far the most powerful and influential roles in the game, so it's no surprise when you mention them, but I find it curious you lump the roleblocker with them. The roleblocker is a very weak role for town, and while it can be useful for mafia, there are far better picks for them. The only critical situation where I see mafia really wanting the roleblocker is to counter a vocal pro-town bulletproof player, as they will have no other way to get rid of them. It's true that the roleblocker can shut down a town power role, even perhaps the compulsive vig or inventor, but don't overestimate the importance of having such roles active for the town. A compulsive town vig will likely hit a lot of town anyways, and depending on which plan the town inventor follows (night-protect vests, investigate kits, etc), it's similar to a medic, or a cop. To be honest a town inventor might get more mileage out of more wild ideas than the ones presented so far. Still, this is just a relatively minor issue I have with your plan.

Show nested quote +
On May 01 2010 15:19 Qatol wrote:
There are several roles which are very important for someone to pick up this game. These roles are (in no particular order):
The information roles - Tracker, Alignment Cop, Role Cop
The hit-related roles - Medic, Meth Dealer, Veteran, Bulletproof
Other - Copy Cat
It is very important that we have at least the threat of these roles out there. With this in mind, I'm arguing that if you are near the bottom of the list, you should think very hard about selecting one of these roles.

More importantly is the lack of focus on town grabbing powers that are important to town success. Particularly, investigative roles (tracker, alignment cop) that are very important for town. Now you mention that these are "very important" in your post but then ask that those near the bottom try to get them? Shouldn't players in the middle or even higher up aim to snag these?

Your proposal seems focused on denying powers to mafia, which is a good thing. But that's only HALF the story, and missing the important other half: grabbing essential powers for the town. Without investigative roles on the town's side, the town's chances of winning are very low. When I was digging through statistics of played games when trying to ensure that the balance in Micro-MAFIA was as best as it could be - I found something very striking. In the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was shown to be mafia favored. And it's striking how many games are lost for town when the cop dies early on. This showed me that investigative powers are core to a town's success. In fact, given the unknown sanity on the alignment cop - the tracker is likely the most powerful investigative role in the game. This is really why I don't like how you list roleblocker as the third thing for town to grab - when tracker and alignment cop are far more important for town members high up in the draft order to choose.

It's all good to deny the mafia strong powers - I agree this is important. But if town gets denied the investigative powers, it will be very difficult to identify the right targets to lynch, unless you are banking on scum making mistakes. But I'll reiterate - in the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was found to be mafia favored. Town needs the investigative powers. Getting investigative powers is as important, if not moreso, than denying mafia killing powers. So focusing on the latter misses at least half of the picture.


Finally, I really dislike how you make a declaration as if your proposal is the only one to be followed, and make statements as extreme as "we will immediately lynch you" if someone steps out of line - especially when your plan is flawed. As well, if the top draft order people actually do listen to you, then they've basically claimed their role day 1, making it a lot easier for the mafia to take steps to mitigate their power. A major part of the mafia's game plan is to identify which players have the power roles which are a threat to them - your plan does that for them. I'd rather players make their picks in secret, and only claim when necessary. This keeps the mafia guessing as to who has what power, and who is really a threat to them.

Summary and a proposed alternative:
Qatol's plan focuses mainly on denying mafia powers (the good part) and misses the boat on grabbing essential town powers, such as investigative roles (the bad part). While he does mention the "importance" of various roles to the town, the way he asks players to pick does not put any real emphasis on getting such roles. Also, he wants certain players to pick certain roles - so if his plan is followed, it's clear to the mafia who owns what powers.

Alternative, better proposal: Follow Qatol's emphasis on the compulsive vig and inventor roles, but not the roleblocker. Include the tracker and alignment cop in the "group of important roles". Do not follow Qatol's plan of person x in the draft order picks role y. Instead, if you are a town player high in the draft order, go for one of these, but don't make it obvious which one you have, so it's harder for mafia to arrange their plans on how to deal with these powers. While it's a risk that certain players in the draft order won't get their pick if not all the picks are laid out beforehand, that risk applies to mafia too. If town members DID in fact follow the plan and picked the role that they were told to, mafia can also pick roles without fear of being bumped into vanilla.

Given this horrid track record it's clear that my instincts suck. I need to play with my head or not play at all.

Now we have: myself, Foolishness, Falcynn, Korynne, Qatol and soon to be dead OpZ. I would like to believe Qatol is the red so I can somehow be vindicated, but rationally I don't see it given his exchanges with Darth, Zona and others early on. Don't lynch Qatol.

This leaves three people: Falcynn, Foolishness and Korynne. Foolishness can't shoot himself, so killing Falcynn should be fine.

Very slowly, but I guess I finally got to where Qatol / Korynne were two pages ago. Sorry for playing so badly.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
Korynne
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada990 Posts
May 09 2010 06:00 GMT
#947
You're still alive citi.zen, there's still time to redeem yourself. =P
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 09 2010 06:16 GMT
#948
Don't worry about Radfield. He had me fooled too. And nobody is getting out of this game clean except maybe Radfield himself (though I think he played a bit too pro-town which was what led to his death). I agree that the last mafia should be in that list if OpZ flips innocent. I'm personally leaning towards Foolishness as the most suspicious of the group partially because of his posts throughout the game (he has been generally pretty useless) and partially because I think he's the only one there cocky enough to keep me alive this long.

I will be on an airplane for most of the day tomorrow, so don't expect to see much of me around here. I'll check in in the morning just to see the situation and vote for the CompVig if necessary. But it is unlikely that I will be back in time for the day post.
Uff Da
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 09 2010 06:16 GMT
#949
Day 4 votes

~Opz~(4)
citizen
Falcynn
Qatol
Foolishness

Qatol(1)
~Opz~


~Opz~ (Vanilla Towny) has been lynched

Night roles may now send in their actions. Night ends at 11:00 PM/12:00 KST

Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Korynne
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada990 Posts
May 09 2010 06:24 GMT
#950
=( I guess it's time for my defense? Can someone, like Foolishness, kind of link/give me a proper accusation so I can start defending or something? xD

Or do we have other targets? I'm going for Falcynn, since it's basically between me and Falcynn, and I think that we basically have to trust Qatol and citi.zen.
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 09 2010 16:01 GMT
#951
Predictabo.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
May 09 2010 17:16 GMT
#952
Okay I reread the archives 1 more time quickly. I still think Foolishness is the last mafia, but because I have to pick between Korynne and Falcynn, I think I'm going to have to go with Falcynn. Why? Because there is a risk that he has Jack of All Trades and wins tonight if we do not hit him. While I actually think Korynne is the slightly more suspicious player, I just can't take that risk right now.
So ## CompVig Falcynn##
If citi.zen has a compelling reason to vote for Korynne instead, I'm okay with going for that. Sorry, I'm just running out of time today. I MIGHT be back in time for the day post (I should be back sometime between midnight and 1am EST) but I don't want to gamble with it.
Uff Da
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 09 2010 19:11 GMT
#953
On May 10 2010 02:16 Qatol wrote:
Okay I reread the archives 1 more time quickly. I still think Foolishness is the last mafia, but because I have to pick between Korynne and Falcynn, I think I'm going to have to go with Falcynn. Why? Because there is a risk that he has Jack of All Trades and wins tonight if we do not hit him. While I actually think Korynne is the slightly more suspicious player, I just can't take that risk right now.
So ## CompVig Falcynn##
If citi.zen has a compelling reason to vote for Korynne instead, I'm okay with going for that. Sorry, I'm just running out of time today. I MIGHT be back in time for the day post (I should be back sometime between midnight and 1am EST) but I don't want to gamble with it.

I do not. I am OK hitting Falcynn.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 09 2010 19:32 GMT
#954
My vote is still on Korynne
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Korynne
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada990 Posts
May 09 2010 20:29 GMT
#955
Well I guess that means we're hitting Falcynn, since it's:

Korynne:
Foolishness
Falcynn

Falcynn:
Foolishness
Qatol
citi.zen

If you absolutely hate me Foolishness you could always just compvig me since either way you're getting lynched tomorrow. =P
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
May 09 2010 21:17 GMT
#956
##compvig Korynne## now it's tied

Alright, j/k you can hit me if you want.
Falcynn
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3597 Posts
May 09 2010 21:18 GMT
#957
Oh wait, what? I don't remember voting to compvig Korynne before now...well that was obvious I guess so...

fine
Korynne
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada990 Posts
May 09 2010 21:30 GMT
#958
Well I just assumed you would vote for me rather than yourself. xD
TL Mawfyah~ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 09 2010 21:57 GMT
#959
On May 10 2010 05:29 Korynne wrote:
If you absolutely hate me Foolishness you could always just compvig me since either way you're getting lynched tomorrow. =P

And then you'll feel miserable when mafia wins
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
May 09 2010 22:08 GMT
#960
Or you'll feel good if you are the mafia.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
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