EPTTL Mafia XXII
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meeple
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On April 15 2010 17:46 Scaramanga wrote: Bumping the mafia thread in sports advertising the new game could help with the numbers Nah... I don't think that thread gets bumped if someone posts in it... dunno if its because it's stickied or not. | ||
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On April 16 2010 13:17 Roffles wrote: TL has a clock that runs on KST. As long as everyone is on the same clock, I think there shouldn't be any issues. Yeah I don't know why we've never used the Korean time instead of Eastern time... And I didn't know stickies can still be bumped into the sidebar... suppose I hadn't noticed, sry. | ||
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On April 16 2010 13:42 Qatol wrote: Because when people are away from the computer, they think in terms of local time, not KST. Not everyone is in EST... I think they would think more in KST than in EST... but regardless its worked well in the past so I'm not gonna say to change it... | ||
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On April 18 2010 04:36 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Blue roles Detectives. Read flamewheels last game. That is how you should be operating this game. Take a list of players from the get go, all down. As one person dies, mark down their role, if they were town/mafia, and a tally of how many from each side are left. This is a numbers game. If you find a red player, (hopefully not day 1) mark it down. Hopefully you have been given the right to PM this game. Otherwise you have a very tough job. Do you give yourself up, or do you post your findings. This is something you will have to decide on. Each player has their own idea of whats an acceptable risk. Act accordingly. Hopefully your allowed to PM, otherwise you can risk on other dt's picking up your work. Medics Protect the obvious townies. WITH ONE MAJOR EXCEPTION. No medic in this game period protect these three people: Ace Caller BloodyC0bbler. Let us live or die based on actions. Our deaths will take a bit of experience out of the town, but if we are red and survive, we will be caught very very quickly and offed by town from it. Why would you advocate against the protection of those experienced players? I mean... I agree that they should live/die by their actions... but if they're red doesn't it pose a greater threat to the town. You say that they will be caught very quickly... but doesn't the experience give you an edge in avoiding the gallows? Also... Abenson please stop spamming... it's annoying as fuck | ||
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On April 18 2010 05:04 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Simple. We are trying to raise the skill level of every one of the players so we have an insanely skill community. Protecting people like ace, myself or caller, leads to town more inclined to follow us around. Would everyone? No, but would a fair number of casuals, most likely. Besides, with 1-2 game days, our deaths would give a ton of info usually  Hmmm... so when you say that you guys will be caught quickly... it's because you're egging to town on to scrutinize your posts? | ||
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On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote: Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm. It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan. | ||
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On April 18 2010 05:42 Zona wrote: Wait...you were serious about your "everyone is an assassin" post? And you want everyone to roleclaim so early? First of all, if someone is an assassin, they aren't going to claim assassin. That's just setting a big target on their backs so that the other assassins can kill them. And if we mass roleclaim we just allow the mafia to choose the most valuable power roles to kill at night. Also - how am I derailing the town? I'm pointing out the fishy parts of BC's posts and posting my own proposed plan with reasoning to back it up. Here's Bill Murray's plan in spoilers for those that want to reference it. It was so silly I thought it was a joke. + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2010 05:13 Bill Murray wrote: everyone is an assassin here's what we're going to do: The first half of the list is required to assassinate the 2nd half of the list. The list will be inverted the next day so everyone will get their turn to kill someone if they are an assassin. They won't want to be using their kills up every single night anyways, as they can use a Detective Check on the alternate night. I will be cutting the game list into a 1/2 order. 1s are killers, 2s are killees. It will switch the next night. If you are a killer or a killee, don't complain. In all likelihood you won't have to kill or be killed, as we are not sure how many assassins there are. If the mafia kill a killee in the night, we skip a lynch to balance it (hypothetically), but if they kill a killer then we will lynch the killee of the person that they killed the killer of. I hope this is making sense to you. If anyone has any questions about the Bill Murray plan of town success let me know. This plan will help the town as it will be putting mafia players in vulnerable "killee" positions in which they would potentially lynch the "killer". We use the assassins to win as a town. They COUNT as town people, so assassins will want the town to win. It will also be giving them chances to win the game for theirselves through killing other assassins and finding assassins that they can kill at any time during the night that we aren't asking them to kill for us. If they find an assassin, they can breadcrumb a message to us previously or something to let us know BEFORE they do the action that they will be killing an alternate person (this will guarantee that they stay town as we let them go towards their goal while we go towards our goal together). I don't want assassins to claim at first, but it will become obvious after the first 2 cycles on who they are anyways, so we can be a lot more organized after the first couple day/night cycles. BM can almost never be taken seriously... his plans should be ignored | ||
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@BC... Every death gives information, but it might not be entirely useful information, and I would rather get information from discussion then an innocent townie's death. | ||
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On April 18 2010 07:20 Foolishness wrote: There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive. Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close. And for good measure... NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE! That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches. Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows | ||
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On April 18 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote: It goes well without saying that planning for the worst case scenario is much better than "hoping" for some medic saves and Vets taking hits and mafia being stupid. I've been in games where the town could've saved itself if it had double lynched earlier. Instead town was left in a situation where they needed both their double lynches to hit mafia in order to win. You can probably guess what happened. Yes, I should listen to you and attack BC, who's posted shit all game...except he's actually contributing. Right now everyone disagrees with BC. But wait a minute! Something's not right here! BC told everyone to attack him (and caller and Ace) in his first post, and to not trust him at all. So all YOU have done is conformed to HIS plan, and act in a way that he totally anticipated and even wanted. Great job doing exactly what BC wanted! Not only have you provided us with essential information, you've also made high quality posts alerting all of us of how BC is full of crap! If there were elections I'd so be voting for you right now. I'd also be telling everyone else of how godly you are at mafia. Can you teach me your secrets? Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now. I never said to attack BC... in fact... I defended him when Zona was attacking him. I said BM as in Bill Murray, perhaps you just misread there. So yeah... you probably want to start licking those balls yourself. | ||
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I suppose that BC is being true to word and staying behind the scenes a bit... at least he hasn't pushed his plan forward at all. First day lynch has barely any chance of getting red, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Lynching inactives is acceptableish... except that we start to forget the main purpose of the game... besides that there are way too many inactives to whittle away at. It seems that some people have decided that Bill Murray should be the first to go down tonight... I will support if necessary but I sort of question some of the newer players semi-blindlysupporting people. They will pop in just to say its a good plan and then speak nothing else of it. If you have supported something please say why you think its good, or what flaws it can possibly have. I would encourage people to look more closely at those posters and see if anyone stands out. I know that a common defense will be that he/she's a newbie to Mafia but I think there are at least some of them that look suspicious. | ||
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On April 19 2010 12:26 IntoTheWow wrote: I agree as I said in my post in the previous page (that maybe got lost there :p) Anyone has been checking who the inactives are as of now? There are far too many inactives to consider at this point imo... besides we can make a more educated decision... @ Caller... perhaps I appeared non-commital before but I was fairly clear that we should steer away from inactives and instead try to nab one of the BM bandwagoners, since an inexperienced mafia might be tempted. Thelardygooser or whatever his name is, is an example of someone I would consider lynching. That and his constant "I am noob" excuses... For some reason Jugan is behaving somewhat Bill Murrayish... in a way that I haven't really seen him play before, so to me that something to keep my eye on. | ||
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On April 19 2010 15:47 Jugan wrote: I don't care if you lynch me. I'm the miller again anyway. Thats getting to be a pretty tired story man... So... we need some sort of consensus on how to vote (obviously)... I don't mind lynching an inactive, but I would prefer someone like Lardygooser or the like... At any rate I would enjoy feedback on why we should shouldn't do it. | ||
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BM, you get this shit every game because you're annoying to play with, green or not. | ||
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On April 19 2010 18:15 Bill Murray wrote: jugan, does it make u suspicious of meeple because he's attacking 2 of the most obvious townies? I never attacked Jugan... I said he was kinda posting spammishly like you, but he's started to put thought into his posts now, and thus I haven't peeped. When I said that him being a miller is a tired story isn't an attack, unless he's much more fragile than I know him to be. | ||
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There are much more juicy targets... especially now that RoL is now active. It's only Day 1 so some level of inactivity should be excused. Is there any reason for lynching jpak other than he's been inactive/shitty one liner posting? Caller makes a good point about Rage. When I'm red I try to do the same thing... and you're just that much more aware of making it sound like you're working as a group. | ||
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@Caller, The Rage bandwagon started with your post about him... and it made sense to me? In any case I switched to jpak since I want a majority vote and he's got the most on him by now... | ||
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On April 20 2010 07:42 Bill Murray wrote: do you really feel like he's scum? He could be, but I don't see it. Well... nothing's certain... I don't feel jpak's scum but I'm voting for him because I want a lynch today. I feel Rage has a better chance of being scum tha jpak does. But who knows... we might yet see red blood tonight. | ||
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What's bs about that? I'm against lynching inactives but if my votes the one needed for a lynch then of course I'll do it. Who do you have in mind instead? Would you rather a no lynch than a green? | ||
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On April 20 2010 08:33 Caller wrote: Remind me what the reasoning behind this bandwagon was, and remind me who were the 3rd and 4th voters in the bandwagon and think about why they would be the most suspicious. So you state an idea with good reasoning, I agree and support it... then I'm suspicious. Please explain how that works. I dunno if spots 3 and 4 are mafia hotspots or something, since you mention it so much... | ||
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@Caller... lol it might be a statistic but as a determining factor in someone's redness its really weak. I'm sure you can pull up tons of statistics that don't prove anything | ||
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On April 20 2010 09:58 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: If Jugan switches it'll be to vote for me Oh you doubter... I know Jugan is a team player | ||
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Nothing to do but wait and see who gets offed. | ||
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Now... to aid medics in making some decisions: High Risk of Dying - BC - Caller - Incog All are pretty high profile and have been relatively helpfulish... On that note remember BC's plan of letting them live/die by their play. Not a suggestion either way, just something to think about. Medium Risk Examples are but definitely not limited to: - INfund - tree.hugger - hobbes - foolishness Basically anyone with some experience that's been posting somewhat regularly The rest are basically low risk... but I'm sure the mafia will pick off some. Also please before you protect someone go over their post history very carefully... we definitely don't want to be protecting reds and for sure there are some reds in the people I listed as perceived high/med risk. Any hints in their post history of scummy behavior and you should think twice about protecting them. | ||
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On April 20 2010 15:37 Bill Murray wrote: I feel like I am at a pretty high risk of dying. Yeah not really... your confusion and spam is exactly what the mafia wants. It prevents us from making decisions and sidetracks us with talks of flamewheel throwing in a non-existent assasin | ||
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On April 21 2010 04:40 Caller wrote: by the way, meeple is also suspect for a) voting 3rd b) rapidly switching votes... to 3rd c) commentating on the result of the lynch You're barking up a non-existent tree Caller... Statistics don't imply anything. And yeah my suspicions of Rage are pretty much dissolved by now... Not to say he's completely scot-free but much less so than before. | ||
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1) I changed votes because we needed a lynch 2) Yeah this doesn't mean anything 3) I do this frequently... look at previous games | ||
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On April 21 2010 05:39 Caller wrote: 1) this by itself isn't bad 2) oh yes it does 3) you did this twice when you were still alive the first time you did it you were medic and gave it blatantly away when you said the second time you did it you just said and were town this time you said "dang we lost one of our kp, etc." a bit different this time, eh? the other two games you played you were either dead or banned It's not any different... and when I was a medic I didn't save that guy, so it wasn't like I was gloating about saving the guy. I was just congratulating the guy who did... which is ok isn't it? This time I say we lost a potential kp because we did... you're totally over-analyzing this | ||
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On April 21 2010 09:21 Incognito wrote: Actually meeple is a fairly suspicious character imo. Let me go back through his archived posts and check. Ok, useless posts, followed by attacking BC's plan/idea. Not really pro-town, but not suspicious yet either. Oh noes. Next post he defends BC. Not sure how much we can read into this. But flip floppiness is kinda pro-mafia. Then he ignores BM, cool. Advocates anti day-3 double lynch policy. Ok, fine I guess this is a justifiable position. There are plenty of people who have advocated this position in the past. Regardless though, traditionally usually have a decent amount of information in our hands by day 3. Yet meeple arbitrarily assumes that we won't have enough info by day 3. I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths. Really? Well why don't you try to make generate this info then? Seriously info doesn't just pop out of nowhere into your hands. Seems to me like meeple has no intention of attempting to get information. He inherently assumes that not enough will be available. Oops! Also, another thing to note about meeple's posting is that if you look at all of meeple's posts as a whole, he is always reacting. He is always responding to what is going on immediately in front of him. Not going through or trying to analyze other players as a whole. Strike two! Well, before I write him off on that, meeple: start trying to dig up and analyze real information instead of just responding to what is immediately in front of you please.. You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information. Continuing, meeple finally decides to respond to the BM incident, complains about inactivity, and jokes around. Casually mentions a bandwagon (not certain if this is an anti-bandwagon stance, but I assume it is?), and then in the next post jumps onto the jpak wagon. Talk about hypocrisy. I don't remember complaining about inactivity... in fact I think I said that its been pretty good, with 40 pages by Day 1. About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever) Next several posts are trash, and then he comes up with a medic list. Cool. It looks useful. Unfortunately, infundibulum already made one of those. He was probably ignored, but oh wells. At least meeple leaves Ace (Detective?) off the list, and adds some people to the list who aren't really worth mentioning. tree.hugger? Foolishness hasn't been useful, and hobbes is a big WUT? Why does meeple also ignore Zona and d3_crescentia from his list? Shady and poorly thought out list at best. Next he defends himself from Caller. And now he will have to defend himself from me. Better come out and explain yourself before I explain your situation for you (well, I already did). (Note to inactives, don't think that I'm going to give you the same treatment as meeple and let you defend yourselves. The difference here is that at least meeple is being active. He gets a few more bonus tolerance points on my list than you guys do). Oh also I'd like you to come out and explain your choices for your bizzare medic list. Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game. I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought. | ||
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On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote: This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit. since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me. We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage: Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum, There are also people who have scummy suspicious posts or are strangely quiet like meeple, Zona, abenson, or KF91 This post feels pretty squirmy to me Also, Meeple, when you said "" How on earth do you KNOW that? Let's lynch Meeple. Look at the timing of Jugan's vote post... I saw his vote go in before I posted that. | ||
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On April 21 2010 12:13 Incognito wrote: Your third sentence contradicts itself? It pretty much says, "we will probably have enough information to use a double lynch, but I'm not comfortable using this enough information to actually lynch two people!!?" Which is it? Although yes, at this rate, nobody's spitting out enough information to DL tomorrow. This statement is shaky, but I guess it doesn't make sense for you to say this as mafia. Since really not very many solid suspects have been brought up, so you wouldn't have the need to avoid DLing then. Great I'll look forward to it. So you are in the lets-not-kill-more-innocent-townies-with-shaky-Double-Lynches camp, but you're also in the lets-lynch-people-just-because-i-don't-want-a-no-lynch camp. Cool beans. Hmm...you're still suspicious, but this has put me back into indecision. Actually finding out today's deaths makes you look more innocent. Since two people on your medic list died. I'm not sure you're that crazy to put two of your hit list members on a public medic list. Although I guess since Hobbes was like a lolwut and Foolishness was acting...shady you could take that risk. In any case, I await your active contributions to the town effort. When I say that we will probably have enough information... I mean that there might be 2 people we suspect of being mafia but we're shaky on them. The difference I was trying (and failed) to emphasize was having barely enough information to lynch two people, and having like 2-3 really solid suspects and not enough lynches to deal justice to them. In any case... I'll be reviewing and making a case for some suspects shortly | ||
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nbtnbt5 - His very few posts in the thread have just to say he supports BM's assasin plan, and the plan to lynch an inactive. Moreover, the feel of his posts give me a hint of mafia with no idea how to act green. Still needs more posting and information to confirm. Voted for himself, then a fairly random vote on Falcynn... The self-vote gives me further suspicion that he's red and struggling with the role. Abenson - Lots of crap posting... saying alot and remaining active but not actually contributing very much at all - He might be implicated if Caller really does turn up red, by this post: On April 19 2010 07:05 Abenson wrote: Hmm... Caller is always interesting. I propose we keep him for a bit. He is a veteran, after all. If he's not mafia he'll benefit us. And he prefaced this game by saying he's well known for being useless, which is somewhat of a cop-out so that he doesn't need to answer for what he says. And Elemenope I'm still waiting for your trademark few but lengthy posts... | ||
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On April 21 2010 14:47 flamewheel91 wrote: Elemenope was replaced by Incognito at least two days ago now. Also: Vote count updated. lol... fail on my part... too many people to keep track of. I wondered why his Zbot entry was so short. | ||
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On April 21 2010 14:53 Ace wrote: Also you need to vote now because only scum would want to wait to see if the wagon against Caller gets pushed before voting. Townies should make up their minds and realize it's either me or Caller situation. By NOT voting you well - appear scummy  . If you're willing to stake your life on it... well then I suppose so... | ||
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On April 21 2010 14:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Hi meeple. You just confirmed yourself red. You have pointed the FoS at almost everyone, but hey, your trying to live. Thats not where the confirmation lies. If you had noticed oh say, days ago. Incognito replaced Elemenope as a player. You have spent most of this game not really contributing, and pointing your finger everywhere. Your initial play this game came as logical, and founded. Quickly it however turned for the worse. You dropped to one liners very quickly. Pointed the FoS at many players. You then make a random med list, where two of the people on said list are dead. (seems slightly odd that people in the spotlight would die. Also a few of the names on there make very little sense to be protected). You come back to jump on the kill caller wagon with the promise of more suspects to come. Those suspects include such small amounts of information its odd. With the amount of crapstorm posts we have, you could have easily narrowed down more than 2 people in an hour. Combine all this with the dead people who were suspicious of you. You have alooot to make up for. shape up. Yearghh... I'm so tired of being picked apart... but I have been playing sloppily so I suppose I deserve it. Alright..Time to go through my posts and do some retrospective: Rage - He posted very carefully... something that I would expect from a smart mafia. My suspicion of him has greatly lessened of late. TheLardyGooser - So... we need some sort of consensus on how to vote (obviously)... I don't mind lynching an inactive, but I would prefer someone like Lardygooser or the like... At any rate I would enjoy feedback on why we should shouldn't do it. And he was red... Where are all the other people that I pointed the finger at? Please show me my posts because I can't see to find them. The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now... in fact if anything it was just a starting point for later analysis, and of course we couldn't learn anything from lynching them... that's why I voted to lynch Caller... He gives us valuable information. A FoS doesn't mean intent to lynch... I make it rather clear that the ideas are still being formulated. My medic list wasn't random... and I defended it to Incog already... if anything the fact that I was right about two of the people on there should exonerate me somewhat. If you think I have the balls to kill off two of the people on my list then I appreciate it, but yeah I'm much too safe a player for that. There are many more suspects of course but I focussed on ones that previously had perhaps been overlooked. I'm not just going to echo sentiments that other people have said. The amount that you've grossly exaggerated my failings here are outstanding... Where are the "many" people that I accused? Why is my medic list random, when I explained pretty thoroughly how I went about making it? My slip-up with forgetting that elemenope was replaced by incog is understandable in a game with 38 people in it. | ||
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On April 21 2010 15:21 Caller wrote: clearly mafia here. Why are we even doubting this? I play safe, therefore I'm mafia... cmon Caller you can do better than that. What's stopping me from being a safe townie? | ||
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On April 21 2010 15:28 Caller wrote: Good sir, you're not only suspicious but you justify your lack of taking risky actions as making you a good player. That's an outright load of horseL. If you're really a townie that you claim you are just now, then you should be doing a lot more than making a Lload of mistakes or by defending yourself with whatever bullL you come up with. Again: LYNCH ITW, MEEPLE, MOTBOB, HIT BC TONIGHT Now if you excuse me I have to take a L. Alright... so now you're just making things up. Where did I say that I was a good player? I can't seem to find it. If you could kindly point it out to me. I said I was a safe player, as in not taking tons of risks like some of the hotshots around here. I've admitted I've been sloppy but more so simply because I didn't think that all my posts would be scrutinized to such an extent. | ||
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On April 22 2010 15:07 BrownBear wrote: Hey. Not entirely fair implicating me for something the dude before me did. Well... you have the same role, so his acting can still give hints into what you are. However it kinda sucks for you because you can't really defend his actions. Ace still requires a little proving but Caller turning up Miller definitely gives his roleclaim a boost and for now at least I'm willing to believe he's a detective. Am I missing something? We're voting for a double lynch with basically no solid prospects... and there's been very little discussion about this yet somehow we've passed a double lynch vote. Well... now that we know we have two lynch targets tommorow... Some people have suggested BC (tree.hugger), but I'm not convinced... His posting hasn't been that scummy and although voting for motbob instead of jumping on the Caller bandwagon might be a tell that he wants to avoid being associated with what he thought was a green death... imo its not enough to lynch on. @d3... for some reason you seem to be attacking me with little/no reason. I've refuted Callers and Incog's accusations of me so if you have nothing else to add why do you keep bringing up my name? | ||
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On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote: So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan? I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post. I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how. It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives. Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university. I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:04 IntoTheWow wrote: Also, why did we stop talking about RaGe. If you re-read some posts from him (basically around page 43-45) he tries to look like a victim with the role-check set on him. He also inactive at times... Eh... well first I don't see how he plays the victim. I looked through his posts on those pages and didn't see that much scum in it. Can you elaborate? Inactive at times is not really a good mafia tell... there are plenty of real life stuff that gets in the way of a forum mafia game. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:35 Falcynn wrote: True, but I figured posting more useless comments wouldn't help my cause either considering I'm horrible at coming up with my own analysis' and most of my comments would just involve me agreeing with other people. At least that was my thinking at the time. Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is. On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote: If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill. Continually calling for more deaths is lame... | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:51 Incognito wrote: Of course. We should sit here and wait for the mafia to kill us. Either way, you haven't been all to useful. Of course, you did give us your analysis, as promised. But its a half hearted attempt at best. nbtnbt5. Fine. Makes sense. Assassins you can kill him too. Abenson. You say he has a lot of posting. Orly? Look at past games, he's posted a ton. It was useless too. This is not very insightful analysis. You admit that he also says he is useless. Not very much of an analysis, huh? Also, you post some Rage analysis. Only after you come under more attacks. And you say your suspicion has greatly lessened. Ok, how exactly does that help us? It really doesn't. You also say, "The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now". Ok, so you also admit your analysis is half-hearted and not good enough for a lynch. Can you please make it less obvious that you're trying to just get away with the bare minimum? You make me really want to lynch you. Where is my Rage analysis? I don't recall looking at him too deeply. Am I destined to continually be picked apart like a loaf of bread in a duck pond? Step back and look at the situation neutrally for a moment. I don't admit that the analysis was half-hearted... I said that it wasn't conclusive, as with any analysis. nbtnbt5 has too little posting for me to be totally comfortable with his lynch, but I do suspect him... Am I not allowed to post analysis that doesn't end with "lynch this guy!!!" The Abenson issue is non-existent... he was mod-killed and was green. My analysis on his play was wrong. Sry. Do you take issue with my instructions to medic/vigi's? I'm doing far above the average here, so I don't know where this bare minimum is but its pretty relative. | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled. Now you're just playing the victim card... don't get modkilled just because some guys are accusing you. If you're really town it won't do shit all but hurt us and you should be fighting for the town's best interests. Just because some people think you're mafia doesn't mean everyone does and it doesn't mean you'll be lynched. It's far too easy to think everyone's against you when some loud and sqauwky guys are harping on you. Buck up man and make a case for yourself. Participate in the town discussion on issues and point out faults and strengths where you see fit. | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:22 Incognito wrote: Oh wait nvm. You didn't analyze Rage. You just said you didn't suspect him as much anymore (why?). For a couple reasons, but I didn't see faults in the way he defended himself... and although I'm still keeping my eye on him, other than his careful posting I didn't see any major scumminess. Also, I've lost some faith in Caller's abilities to pick someone red after the absurd way he attacked me. "I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information." - Ok. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh. But from someone who posts so much, I expected more from you. I don't post that much anymore... I've quieted down tons lately, and you can see that by my low activity everywhere on the site. Besides your one post with 2 pieces of analysis, your posting is relatively useless. I get the nbtnbt5 analysis. How long did that take? If you find nothing conclusive, you don't go try to find some other information that is? Yes, Abenson may be dead now, but it doesn't change the fact that your analysis was not very insightful. Non-insightful posting is rampant... its really hard to distill truths from someone's posts where emotions aren't really conveyed that much. Still, I'm not copping out there and I'll admit that it wasn't so useful. Where did you post vig instructions? [QUOTE]On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote: [QUOTE]On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote: So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan? I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post. I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how. It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives. Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university.[/QUOTE] I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:52 Incognito wrote: Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier! We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch. Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia. On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch. Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy). So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo. Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it. I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it. Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three. | ||
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On April 23 2010 16:05 Korynne wrote: So uh, RoL's list: Ace RoL Korynne Scamp Incognito's list: Incognito Ace So Ace, and who will be the second person that a medic should coin flip? Well both are being selfish and putting themselves on there... but Incog's willingness to somewhat listen to reason and RoL's unproven nature makes me think that Incog is a better candidate. The others, Scamp and you... unless someone can show me otherwise haven't done so much as to warrant themselves critical to town survival. Alternatively, we can weaken the protection and extend it to three people. With the same randomization that incog suggests. | ||
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On April 23 2010 16:16 Korynne wrote: I am not advocating my own protection, this is my first game so I don't have all that much confidence in my deductions until I see the results of the game. Can we all discuss and settle on a 3rd candidate for medic protection? Well... should we be protecting RoL until he proves himself? Besides, I dunno if we should be spreading protection thin until we need to. But if we were going to pick a third, is there another option other than RoL? I mean... nobody pops into my mind... | ||
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On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan: Vig, kill BC. --If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso. --If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL. You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin? | ||
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On April 23 2010 16:53 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito. I fully understand that he could be a detective... I was looking at how likely you thought he was. However, its also possible we protect three people... or you think that spreads it too thin? | ||
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On April 23 2010 20:23 RaGe wrote: Where the hell did JadeFist disappear to? He never really appeared... When you search his name in the thread there are like 30 instances of pointing out how inactive he is... and 2 of his own posts. | ||
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On April 23 2010 21:11 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I have a theory about JadeFist. Here's his only non-signup post: He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry. Eh... not really enough to make any conclusions from that though... He has voted so he is around... I wonder why he hasn't replied to any of the prods from people here. | ||
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At this point I can't see a reason to not follow Ace's rolecheck, although it's hard to beleive he hit red two nights in a row. I suppose we should trust RoL's RC of BC... he certainly couldn't plan on his compatriots being offed by the mafia and winning so he probably was looking to win over the town and try to gain their protection. So yeah I agree with the BC, Infund lynch for today I suppose. | ||
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On April 24 2010 11:52 Korynne wrote: Man, no vigis... So I guess basically what Ace said. Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum. I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch). I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying. Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately. So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC. Yeah I think at this point we need the double lynch to survive... | ||
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On April 24 2010 15:01 Korynne wrote: I can't seem to find anything online about this, but can someone explain to me the pros and cons of double lynching? Seems like it's only beneficial for town, since we get to decide who to kill, so it's another chance of getting a mafia, whereas not using it just means another night passes and mafia gets to kill more townies. So other than the fact that using it 1st or 2nd day doesn't make much sense, it seems like we should just constantly vote double lynch until we use them up no? Often when we're not completely sure of two reds, a double lynch only serves to speed up town death. Just because we're the ones using it doesn't mean that it necessarily will be a great chance of hitting red. The best times to use a double lynch is when we're almost sure of two reds... then we have a good chance of offing two in one night. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On April 19 2010 12:32 Scamp wrote: I'll warn you right now LardyGooser, if you continue to mention your own noobiness whenever you make a point then I'm going to get you lynched. Even if you really don't know what you're doing, you can't be allowed to shirk responsibility of your opinions or defend yourself by way of inexperience. Anyway, I agree with you and Radfield, if people are still inactive with 6 hours to go or so then we don't really need to worry about them. Even if they just post/vote at the last minute we can just pressure or kill them the next day. No townie that actually wants to win would use this strategy to lurk, so that's that. Also, it isn't really that hard to go after/find people that are both largely inactive and suspicious too. Fun note: Tree.Hugger didn't read the rules! His mention of theLardyGooser seemed genuine, and although it isn't true in all cases especially not with experienced players, mafia tend to avoid each other a bit. + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 20:58 Scamp wrote: Alrighty, I've been asked to take a look at Abenson since he's directly below me on the list. This is a horrible person to try and analyze because not only has a lot of people already done it for me, but he hasn't posted anything since those people spoke on him. It is interesting to note that he did propose to keep Caller around noting: "If he's not mafia he'll benefit us." He also thinks BM's assassin plan is dumb but in his final post he's willing to discuss it. So, there really isn't much to go on with him this game IMO. He's either confused town or confused scum. Honestly, I'd actually consider him being an assassin based on what he's said so far. Not liking the last five pages or so at all. Just a lot of people bickering at each other and the same names popping up over and over. It's all a major distraction, and I have no idea what it's supposed to be distracting from. Shame on every townie that's willingly a part of it, what the hell do you think you're doing? I also wonder why Bill Murray seems to have dropped his plan so suddenly and willingly. I have to confess that it didn't make sense to me, so maybe I missed something, but I don't think that anything that has happened so far should have derailed the plan as he proposed it. And now for the centerpiece: Ace and Caller. I actually really like Caller's defense but as he noted there really isn't any defending him now. If Ace is mafia trying to BS us then I'll happily take one mislynch now for a dead mafia the next day, whether by lynch or by vig shot. And if Ace is a townie or assassin or whatever trying to BS us, then I'll seriously have to think about playing with him ever again. This also seemed genuine... he could've taken the opportunity to put some suspicion on Abenson but he didn't, although his analysis wasn't helpful it also wasn't incriminating. + Show Spoiler + On April 22 2010 05:52 Scamp wrote: I agree with Korynne. Tree.Hugger's logic is suspect and looks like a distraction. Why would any mafia call Ace a liar when he didn't target one of their own? Even WIFOM doesn't really work here. Tree.hugger turned out assasin... so he wasn't exactly with town interests... and that's what Scamp picks up here. So... I can't see anything pointing to Scamp as scum. If he was red, he could have been trying to support a tree.hugger FoS in that last quote but tree.hugger wasn't really a popular candidate and there seems little reason for him to do that. I'm thinking he's green for now... | ||
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On April 20 2010 09:26 Scamp wrote: Right now it's either Jpak or nothing. I don't agree with nothing so let's get a lynch. And his voting seems to be somewhat bandwagony... He votes Rage then changes to jpak and the next cycle he votes Caller. On the other hand... that's what a lot of people did... so it's not entirely odd. I still say green | ||
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On April 24 2010 15:27 Ace wrote: were those posts you quoted by scamp around the time of the jpak votes? :/ I added the only real post pertaining to the jpak lynch... So no the ones before weren't specifically for the jpak lynch | ||
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On April 24 2010 15:33 Ace wrote: That last post was good though. jpak or nothing aka "as long as anyone dies why the fuck not? "Hrm... yeah that was a pretty common mindset at the time though... Who was the dead guy who voted? | ||
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BrownBear not voting is strange... a hesitancy to vote off one of your own is something that we might see showing through here | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On April 18 2010 05:16 Zona wrote: Wait, what? You claim to be one of the "big names" and you are already giving yourself an excuse for low activity? Seems like a convenient excuse so you produce fewer chances of slipping up and revealing yourself if you were mafia. Are you kidding? You really think that in a game where most players cannot PM, someone would both be able to PM and DT check? As well - all the roles have been revealed in the game, none of the abilities are hidden. Why would you even consider that DTs would be able to PM as well? Detectives need to target players with the aim of finding mafia in a game with no out of thread communications with fellow players. Why? With no out of thread communications with fellow players the usefulness of finding a fellow town player is greatly diminished. It probably isn't a good idea to claim detective early in the game unless you're close to being lynched. If the town already has some suspicion on someone you have checked to be mafia, you should keep up the pressure. However, early in the game it'll be difficult to go after someone you found red if the rest of the town isn't suspicious of them, so keep your result under your hat and pay attention to what this person does, and later on see if you can identify this person's teammates, or go after them once they create more suspicion upon themselves. If the town is getting killed off and is approaching a loss, AT THAT POINT you probably want to claim if you've found some red. You may also want to be more aggressive in going after someone if lynching that person would take mafia numbers from odd to even, which will reduce their KP by one (a big deal in a game such as this). Curious. If medics do what you instruct them to do, then if any of these players are town, it makes them easy to kill at night and easy for the mafia to deprive the town of their ability. But actually from my point of view the only player on this list that I would really try to keep around if town would be Ace. I haven't seen Caller being particularly useful as a town player, nor you, especially in this type of setup. You seem to be strongest in games where PMs are allowed, even your plans contain hopes that DTs are able to PM. The "build a town PM circle and then DT-check/confirm everyone" strategy doesn't work here, and at least from my view that seems to be your strength, rather than people analysis. In fact in past games as a prominent pro-town player you've heavily advocated lynching players who ended up being town when you couldn't rely on DT-checks and other ways to confirm. I can't believe I'm calling you out on so much of your post...but Mad Hatters are similar to vigilantes, except delayed. You say they're like DTs??? What the heck? Anyways - vigilantes, hold your shot until you're really sure a player is mafia, because if you screw up, you contribute to REMOVING AVAILABLE MISLYNCHES from the town!!! That's right. If you screw up your shot, the town could possibly lose an opportunity to screw up a lynch because you killed an extra town-aligned player. And mislynches are more valuable to the town than screwed up vigilante hits because mislynches come with vote counts that include mafia votes, which can be analyzed later on. Also - if early in the game you think you're SURE a player is mafia - YOU ARE WRONG! Look at past games where vigilantes fired early. Especially World at War, considering nukes as daytime vigilante hits. Notice how many town-aligned players with nukes were "SURE" that their nuke targets were mafia - and almost all of them would have hit town! That's why being "sure" early in the game is just a delusion. Mad hatter - since your bombs don't activate until you die, go ahead and place some bombs early - but try not to get killed early either! If you're going to die early you might as well hold back on your bombs, as they will then act as early-game vigilante hits. On April 18 2010 05:25 Zona wrote: A message to assassins: Although your goal in this game is to eliminate your fellow assassins, for all other aspects of the game, you should start off playing pro-town (at least until the town has an overwhelming advantage). It is in your own self-interest to do so. Why? It's in YOUR OWN SELF INTEREST to prolong the game as long as possible. And at least initially, it looks to me that mafia has the numbers advantage, if you as assassins are ignored. Why? First of all, notice the odds. Likely 5-7 mislynches allowed for 8 successful lynches. It's not easy for the town to go >50% success in lynching, so if we don't do well here, it's likely mafia will win early, reducing the amount of time you have to reach your own personal goal. So helping the town with your votes helps you prolong the game and increase your OWN PERSONAL CHANCES OF WINNING. Also - HOLD YOUR KILL unless you are sure your target is another assassin. Why? First, you only have 2 chances to screw up - so if you use your kill casually you could waste your killing abilities and be left impotent and relying on the chance that others will somehow kill your opponents for you. FURTHERMORE - EACH OF YOUR SCREWED UP KILLS HELPS EITHER THE TOWN OR MAFIA TOWARDS WINNING, and reduces the amount of time you have to win yourself. So don't deprive yourself of time by killing casually. Only in desperate times (when one of mafia or town are visibly dominating) will you have to employ your kill to try to balance the numbers so that the winning side won't immediately win and end the game for you as well. On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote: Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm. On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote: Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less. I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town. | ||
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On April 24 2010 16:30 Incognito wrote: Hi I'm back, just need to check up on the last few pages in the thread, but I'm just posting this right now to announce that I have taken a hit. Do you mean you were saved by a medic or you're a veteran? | ||
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On April 27 2010 16:27 Korynne wrote: HER list. Dx *growls* Scara's last post smells like scum. Why? I think stacking Ace is a big waste of mafia KP. If they stack Ace, that's -1 T, and without the 100% confirmed lynch we might have a 33% chance? So that's like -1.33T (-1 T - .33M - .66T = -1.33T). Whereas if they killed 3 random townies that's -2.5T at least (given that medics might randomly protect them), with Ace having say 100% chance of catching someone (since he talks about it in here, maybe mafia thought he would for sure catch someone). So that's -1.5T (-2.5T - 1 M) at least. I am inclined to believe that this was a dumb idea by Mafia, and Scara seems to think it was a good idea and would have executed it. lol... sorry chica... my bad I don't agree about Scara's last post though... Stacking was a waste of Mafia KP imo... but he was pretty integral to the town's success so far. That's not saying we can't win without him... | ||
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So normally I'd start with who she replaced, which in this case is Fulgrim, but the guy didn't post anything really... so that's useless.. She tends to play the newb card a bit in the beginning but that's excusable since it doesn't seem to prevent her from contributing On April 22 2010 04:27 Korynne wrote: Ouch, this makes things more complicated. So Ace was WRONG in that he incorrectly deduced that Caller was mafia. But I guess there isn't much to do about the fact that he "role-checked" Caller and Caller turned up mafia... So either Ace just failed at deducing if Caller was mafia, and he's innocent. Or Ace is mafia, in that case, it would be extremely risky to claim Caller as mafia. As mafia, Ace would know that Caller was not mafia, so claiming he's mafia is pretty much death if he turned out townie. There would be a very low probability of him turning up Miller. So for now, I think Ace is telling the truth, but a bit sketchy with analysis (possibly just because Caller's acting funny, which seems counterproductive from his role as a townie?). [Hmmm... I suppose this is the newbness coming through here... since really the fact that Caller was miller and not mafia means that Ace is like 99% detective... On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote: Actually, now that I think about it, Caller being a miller seems the best for Ace being detective (like better than if Caller ended up being mafia). What happy coincidence. If you guys say Ace is the best player, then I think we have a good chance to win! =) Lol... frick... as soon as I typed this out I saw this... Alright so your logic is up to snuff. I'm still including the other thing in there since I like this sort of stream of thought thing that tells my impressions of her as I read through her posts... She thinks alot(or at least several times) from the "mafia" perspective... which means she's either town or a very confident red. To explain more about this since I looked back and realized it didn't make too much sense as it was... I think that although of course thinking from the mafia perspective is necessary, people tend to shy away from it (especially reds) since it links their name with mafia... In past games, when I was town, people have accused me of being red on the basis that I was very willing to put myself in red shoes. On April 23 2010 15:29 Korynne wrote: nai.protoss. D= If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.> I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie. My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons. I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow. Yearg... you really love to put all the emphasis out there with caps and bolds on all your important parts... god forbid you learn how to use colours ... Regardless, This was a weird idea to me... we can't really force someone to vote with a innocent, but besides that it definitely takes away some information about that person (their voting record). I think Incog pointed out that pretty soon after too... iirc On April 23 2010 15:52 Korynne wrote: Well sure that's the ideal situation. But if nai.protoss feels like quitting surely we'd prefer a brainless townie to a resigned dead townie. If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc. I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say. If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats. Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply. I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now. Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO). Again with this weird plan... hrmph... but now you also mention that we could lynch him? On April 23 2010 16:10 Korynne wrote: Considering how low we are on townies, I really don't think having a dead townie is good for our causes, especially since mafia KP is so high. I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead). Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO. Now you say we shouldn't lynch? There's some non-sensical-ish things that I could focus on here... but I won't since I think the general idea about a persons post is more important... On April 23 2010 17:12 Korynne wrote: I posted the probabilities for 3 people. xD I mean it still requires 3 hits to guarantee death, but for 2 people I'd say 89% is close enough to certainty. Now the Ace with 2/3 and RoL with 1/3: AA = 44% chance of double protecting Ace. AR + RA = 44% chance of protecting each once. RR = 11% chance of double protecting RoL. So from the other side: 1 hit on Ace: 11% chance of killing him 2 hits on Ace: 44% chance of killing him 3 hits on Ace: guaranteed to kill. 1 hit on RoL: 44% chance of killing him 2 hits on RoL: 89% chance of killing him 3 hits on RoL: guaranteed to kill. Do these numbers look better than 50/50? xD (1 hit: 25%, 2 hits: 75%) These types of things were a nice contribution... Before now, it's mainly thoughts about stuff that's already happened and now she's being proactive and forming plans and putting forward ideas. (Do I smell a math major?) On April 24 2010 11:52 Korynne wrote: Man, no vigis... So I guess basically what Ace said. Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum. I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch). I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying. Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately. So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC. Despite no-one following this... it was actually a good idea. This way we could've paused and decided whether to lynch Ace or BC. I think it ended up working anyways... since her non-vote on BC staved off his execution for a bit. At this point she went hardcore into analysis... posting it about several players and coming to the conclusion that : - Scamp - scummish - d3 - dunno - brownbear - scummish A reoccuring theme in Korynne's posts is that she somewhat suspects Scaramanga... but yet she never comes out and analyzes him or does anything but prod a bit. Conclusions: Her contributions and willingness to do analysis and generate discussion outweigh some of the odd choices/strategies at the beginning. I don't completely trust her scumdar... and she seems unsure of herself but I'm peggin' her green Sidenote: I definitely misread your post about who to check for some reason or another the "16" was ignored by my brain... I am supposed to check up on Rage... but I've already written this so we'll see if I get to Rage tonight. | ||
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meeple
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On April 27 2010 23:07 RaGe wrote: I changed my mind Scaramanga is mafia. What changed your mind? What information do we get from his lynch? | ||
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Scaramanga is playing the awful player card a lot... and regardless of how true it is... perhaps its not the most useful defense. However, it's interesting to note that when the votes started stacking up against him motbob rushed to his defense. | ||
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He's still under suspicion, perhaps now more than before... but if he's mafia it will be really difficult for him to get away with. | ||
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On April 28 2010 13:58 BrownBear wrote: Really? Fuck. How come Ace did it earlier and got away with it? I guess I get modkilled, sorry about that. I assumed that since Ace had done it before, it was ok. Ace roleclaimed... but didn't post the PM iirc | ||
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On April 28 2010 12:22 nbtnbt5 wrote: I'm pretty easily swayed... (as you can see from my blind support of BM's assassin plan when I really didn't read/understand it) I'm getting sick of people using "I suck" or variations as an excuse for questionable actions. | ||
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On April 28 2010 14:38 Korynne wrote: *sigh* But claiming veteran is pretty awesome for mafia, because then they have a reason for why they weren't hit at night. Ah there will be some tell... unless the mafia double up hits on someone... a missing mafia hit will mean either a medic or a veteran took it. But you're right.. the mafia don't really want to hit him now... since it will be an expensive kill. erg | ||
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On April 28 2010 16:57 Korynne wrote: So does this mean BrownBear will be modkilled? Or we still voting him off the island anyway? xD If he's allowed to continue playing I would probably encourage people to stave off voting for BrownBear... any roleclaim, especially such a fumbled one... should be taken at least somewhat seriously. Although I admit this one is really difficult to verify. We can't afford to lose a blue right now... | ||
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On April 28 2010 23:37 Scamp wrote: There's an odd trend of people voting for me and not posting, or posting about something else while not mentioning me at all but still voting for me. So it's really difficult for anyone to verify it, mafia won't be after him and town should back off. But it'll be really difficult for him to get away with it if he's mafia. Do you see how that doesn't make any sense? The only reason I do believe BB's claim? That was perhaps the dumbest way to claim that I've seen yet. It oddly lends credibility to the claim. But the reasons why I don't trust it: He apparently couldn't be bothered to read the rules even though he's trying to exploit them. The rules do not say that it's illegal to fake a roleclaim from the host, but they do say you cannot post a PM from a host. See the difference here? Notice he wasn't modkilled. And what's with risking a modkill so that the town doesn't waste a lynch? That's just silly. With everyone watching his actions you think it will still be easy for him to pretend to be town? I just said it would be difficult to verify, that doesn't contradict the fact that everyone is looking for signs of scumminess. I'm not sure if we can totally count on flamewheel to be completely strict can we? He wasn't modkilled but that could possibly be because flamewheel thought it was a honest mistake and let him get away with it. Or even that, just like with Jugan, he's waiting until the next cycle to proclaim modkills... regardless it requires some host input to really decide. | ||
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On April 29 2010 09:01 nbtnbt5 wrote: Sorry >.< And sorry, but what was korynn's request? She posted a list and asked people to analyze the person 16 down from them... Go search it. I don't even know who to go after tonight... and the deadline is in 45 minutes... | ||
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For some reason Bill Murray and nbtnbt5 strike me as mafia... I'll compile a good reason list in a bit. | ||
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On April 29 2010 16:37 Bill Murray wrote: you are truly an idiot meeple Oh? You have a better idea? Throw it out there man, I'm all ears... | ||
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Perhaps a different criteria for inactivity is in order. Regardless I still think we can pick the red out. Have faith | ||
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I wouldn't think that every single one on the list is red... since even if there is red out there yet to vote I don't think they would want to blow their cover now by obviously bandwagoning. That said, I'm sure a lot of those people are indeed scum. It also worries me how quickly Protoss got votes against him... if he were really mafia I imagine there would be more of a fight. As well... many of the people who voted for me also voted for him... and there's a good chance the majority of people voting for me are red. I would suggest Scaramanga as a substitute for Protoss. | ||
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Thanks to flamewheel for hosting!! | ||
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