TL Mafia XXII - Page 73

On April 18 2010 05:16 Zona wrote:

Wait, what? You claim to be one of the "big names" and you are already giving yourself an excuse for low activity? Seems like a convenient excuse so you produce fewer chances of slipping up and revealing yourself if you were mafia.


Are you kidding? You really think that in a game where most players cannot PM, someone would both be able to PM and DT check? As well - all the roles have been revealed in the game, none of the abilities are hidden. Why would you even consider that DTs would be able to PM as well?

Detectives need to target players with the aim of finding mafia in a game with no out of thread communications with fellow players. Why? With no out of thread communications with fellow players the usefulness of finding a fellow town player is greatly diminished.

It probably isn't a good idea to claim detective early in the game unless you're close to being lynched. If the town already has some suspicion on someone you have checked to be mafia, you should keep up the pressure. However, early in the game it'll be difficult to go after someone you found red if the rest of the town isn't suspicious of them, so keep your result under your hat and pay attention to what this person does, and later on see if you can identify this person's teammates, or go after them once they create more suspicion upon themselves. If the town is getting killed off and is approaching a loss, AT THAT POINT you probably want to claim if you've found some red. You may also want to be more aggressive in going after someone if lynching that person would take mafia numbers from odd to even, which will reduce their KP by one (a big deal in a game such as this).


Curious. If medics do what you instruct them to do, then if any of these players are town, it makes them easy to kill at night and easy for the mafia to deprive the town of their ability. But actually from my point of view the only player on this list that I would really try to keep around if town would be Ace. I haven't seen Caller being particularly useful as a town player, nor you, especially in this type of setup. You seem to be strongest in games where PMs are allowed, even your plans contain hopes that DTs are able to PM. The "build a town PM circle and then DT-check/confirm everyone" strategy doesn't work here, and at least from my view that seems to be your strength, rather than people analysis. In fact in past games as a prominent pro-town player you've heavily advocated lynching players who ended up being town when you couldn't rely on DT-checks and other ways to confirm.


I can't believe I'm calling you out on so much of your post...but Mad Hatters are similar to vigilantes, except delayed. You say they're like DTs??? What the heck?

Anyways - vigilantes, hold your shot until you're really sure a player is mafia, because if you screw up, you contribute to REMOVING AVAILABLE MISLYNCHES from the town!!! That's right. If you screw up your shot, the town could possibly lose an opportunity to screw up a lynch because you killed an extra town-aligned player. And mislynches are more valuable to the town than screwed up vigilante hits because mislynches come with vote counts that include mafia votes, which can be analyzed later on.

Also - if early in the game you think you're SURE a player is mafia - YOU ARE WRONG! Look at past games where vigilantes fired early. Especially World at War, considering nukes as daytime vigilante hits. Notice how many town-aligned players with nukes were "SURE" that their nuke targets were mafia - and almost all of them would have hit town! That's why being "sure" early in the game is just a delusion.

Mad hatter - since your bombs don't activate until you die, go ahead and place some bombs early - but try not to get killed early either! If you're going to die early you might as well hold back on your bombs, as they will then act as early-game vigilante hits.

On April 18 2010 05:25 Zona wrote:
A message to assassins:
Although your goal in this game is to eliminate your fellow assassins, for all other aspects of the game, you should start off playing pro-town (at least until the town has an overwhelming advantage). It is in your own self-interest to do so. Why? It's in YOUR OWN SELF INTEREST to prolong the game as long as possible. And at least initially, it looks to me that mafia has the numbers advantage, if you as assassins are ignored.

Why? First of all, notice the odds. Likely 5-7 mislynches allowed for 8 successful lynches. It's not easy for the town to go >50% success in lynching, so if we don't do well here, it's likely mafia will win early, reducing the amount of time you have to reach your own personal goal. So helping the town with your votes helps you prolong the game and increase your OWN PERSONAL CHANCES OF WINNING.

Also - HOLD YOUR KILL unless you are sure your target is another assassin. Why? First, you only have 2 chances to screw up - so if you use your kill casually you could waste your killing abilities and be left impotent and relying on the chance that others will somehow kill your opponents for you. FURTHERMORE - EACH OF YOUR SCREWED UP KILLS HELPS EITHER THE TOWN OR MAFIA TOWARDS WINNING, and reduces the amount of time you have to win yourself. So don't deprive yourself of time by killing casually. Only in desperate times (when one of mafia or town are visibly dominating) will you have to employ your kill to try to balance the numbers so that the winning side won't immediately win and end the game for you as well.

On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.

On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.

On April 24 2010 14:41 Ace wrote:
Remaining players list

1. BrownBear
   
2. d3_crescentia
   
3. KF91
   
4. iNfuNdiBuLuM
   
5. BloodyC0bbler
   
6. Scaramanga
   
7. Bill Murray
   
8. Fishball
   
9. RaGe
   
10. Scamp
    
11. Ace
    
12. meeple
    
13. Korynne
    
14. Falcynn
    
15. nbtnbt5
    
16. IntoTheWow
    
17. Incognito
    
18. nAi.PrOtOsS
    
19. Osmoses
    
20. motbob
    
21. madnessman
    

With 7 Mafia currently after these 2 are scraped off that leaves 5 scum in a 19 player game. That's pretty decent odds if we had enough useful players. Alas, we must do things the hard way.

Jpak's voting list:

The first 12 (remember jpak needed 20 to die)

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
Radfield
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
[NyC]HoBbes
Abenson
RebirthOfLeGend
meeple
Zona

The bandwagon was started by a scummy player with ridiculous logic all game.

Next set of votes:
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman
Foolishness
iNfuNdiBuLuM
DarthThienAn
TheLardyGooser
Jugan


So let's just step back and think for a second. We've got scum starting the wagon assuming RoL was right about his RC (and I think he is because BCs reaction was so scummy) and 2 confirmed Mafia at the end. Ok now lets combine both lists in order taking out dead players and replacing in subs. Keep in mind that the real meat of this is the votes coming after after RoL because the 3 votes before him were all non-scum. Don't worry about the guys in the beginning just yet. I'll take of that because I know most people are lazy so I'll collectively give everyone else one simple task.

New list:

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
meeple
BrownBear
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman
iNfuNdiBuLuM

Looks so much simpler now huh? 10 players! With 2 about to be gone!

So now we're down to these 8:

Fishball
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
meeple
BrownBear
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman

^_^. Sooo how does this all work? Simple. I want the town to go back and check out the posts->votes of Incognito, Scamp and madnessman right before the train on jpak was started by BC. Check all their posts around that time and then slightly right after the lynch. If you find anything scummy point it out. This is not meant to accuse them of being scum right off the bat. This is meant for tomorrow when the role claims come out .

As for the people in the beginning of that list I'll take care of it for now. If I don't die tonight I'll illustrate how we break that list apart even easier.