TL Mafia XXII - Page 4

On April 19 2010 12:32 Scamp wrote:
I'll warn you right now LardyGooser, if you continue to mention your own noobiness whenever you make a point then I'm going to get you lynched. Even if you really don't know what you're doing, you can't be allowed to shirk responsibility of your opinions or defend yourself by way of inexperience.


Anyway, I agree with you and Radfield, if people are still inactive with 6 hours to go or so then we don't really need to worry about them. Even if they just post/vote at the last minute we can just pressure or kill them the next day. No townie that actually wants to win would use this strategy to lurk, so that's that.

Also, it isn't really that hard to go after/find people that are both largely inactive and suspicious too.


Fun note: Tree.Hugger didn't read the rules!

On April 21 2010 20:58 Scamp wrote:
Alrighty, I've been asked to take a look at Abenson since he's directly below me on the list. This is a horrible person to try and analyze because not only has a lot of people already done it for me, but he hasn't posted anything since those people spoke on him.

It is interesting to note that he did propose to keep Caller around noting: "If he's not mafia he'll benefit us." He also thinks BM's assassin plan is dumb but in his final post he's willing to discuss it.

So, there really isn't much to go on with him this game IMO. He's either confused town or confused scum. Honestly, I'd actually consider him being an assassin based on what he's said so far.


Not liking the last five pages or so at all. Just a lot of people bickering at each other and the same names popping up over and over. It's all a major distraction, and I have no idea what it's supposed to be distracting from. Shame on every townie that's willingly a part of it, what the hell do you think you're doing?

I also wonder why Bill Murray seems to have dropped his plan so suddenly and willingly. I have to confess that it didn't make sense to me, so maybe I missed something, but I don't think that anything that has happened so far should have derailed the plan as he proposed it.


And now for the centerpiece: Ace and Caller. I actually really like Caller's defense but as he noted there really isn't any defending him now. If Ace is mafia trying to BS us then I'll happily take one mislynch now for a dead mafia the next day, whether by lynch or by vig shot. And if Ace is a townie or assassin or whatever trying to BS us, then I'll seriously have to think about playing with him ever again.

On April 22 2010 05:52 Scamp wrote:
I agree with Korynne. Tree.Hugger's logic is suspect and looks like a distraction. Why would any mafia call Ace a liar when he didn't target one of their own?

Even WIFOM doesn't really work here.

On April 18 2010 05:16 Zona wrote:

Wait, what? You claim to be one of the "big names" and you are already giving yourself an excuse for low activity? Seems like a convenient excuse so you produce fewer chances of slipping up and revealing yourself if you were mafia.


Are you kidding? You really think that in a game where most players cannot PM, someone would both be able to PM and DT check? As well - all the roles have been revealed in the game, none of the abilities are hidden. Why would you even consider that DTs would be able to PM as well?

Detectives need to target players with the aim of finding mafia in a game with no out of thread communications with fellow players. Why? With no out of thread communications with fellow players the usefulness of finding a fellow town player is greatly diminished.

It probably isn't a good idea to claim detective early in the game unless you're close to being lynched. If the town already has some suspicion on someone you have checked to be mafia, you should keep up the pressure. However, early in the game it'll be difficult to go after someone you found red if the rest of the town isn't suspicious of them, so keep your result under your hat and pay attention to what this person does, and later on see if you can identify this person's teammates, or go after them once they create more suspicion upon themselves. If the town is getting killed off and is approaching a loss, AT THAT POINT you probably want to claim if you've found some red. You may also want to be more aggressive in going after someone if lynching that person would take mafia numbers from odd to even, which will reduce their KP by one (a big deal in a game such as this).


Curious. If medics do what you instruct them to do, then if any of these players are town, it makes them easy to kill at night and easy for the mafia to deprive the town of their ability. But actually from my point of view the only player on this list that I would really try to keep around if town would be Ace. I haven't seen Caller being particularly useful as a town player, nor you, especially in this type of setup. You seem to be strongest in games where PMs are allowed, even your plans contain hopes that DTs are able to PM. The "build a town PM circle and then DT-check/confirm everyone" strategy doesn't work here, and at least from my view that seems to be your strength, rather than people analysis. In fact in past games as a prominent pro-town player you've heavily advocated lynching players who ended up being town when you couldn't rely on DT-checks and other ways to confirm.


I can't believe I'm calling you out on so much of your post...but Mad Hatters are similar to vigilantes, except delayed. You say they're like DTs??? What the heck?

Anyways - vigilantes, hold your shot until you're really sure a player is mafia, because if you screw up, you contribute to REMOVING AVAILABLE MISLYNCHES from the town!!! That's right. If you screw up your shot, the town could possibly lose an opportunity to screw up a lynch because you killed an extra town-aligned player. And mislynches are more valuable to the town than screwed up vigilante hits because mislynches come with vote counts that include mafia votes, which can be analyzed later on.

Also - if early in the game you think you're SURE a player is mafia - YOU ARE WRONG! Look at past games where vigilantes fired early. Especially World at War, considering nukes as daytime vigilante hits. Notice how many town-aligned players with nukes were "SURE" that their nuke targets were mafia - and almost all of them would have hit town! That's why being "sure" early in the game is just a delusion.

Mad hatter - since your bombs don't activate until you die, go ahead and place some bombs early - but try not to get killed early either! If you're going to die early you might as well hold back on your bombs, as they will then act as early-game vigilante hits.

On April 18 2010 05:25 Zona wrote:
A message to assassins:
Although your goal in this game is to eliminate your fellow assassins, for all other aspects of the game, you should start off playing pro-town (at least until the town has an overwhelming advantage). It is in your own self-interest to do so. Why? It's in YOUR OWN SELF INTEREST to prolong the game as long as possible. And at least initially, it looks to me that mafia has the numbers advantage, if you as assassins are ignored.

Why? First of all, notice the odds. Likely 5-7 mislynches allowed for 8 successful lynches. It's not easy for the town to go >50% success in lynching, so if we don't do well here, it's likely mafia will win early, reducing the amount of time you have to reach your own personal goal. So helping the town with your votes helps you prolong the game and increase your OWN PERSONAL CHANCES OF WINNING.

Also - HOLD YOUR KILL unless you are sure your target is another assassin. Why? First, you only have 2 chances to screw up - so if you use your kill casually you could waste your killing abilities and be left impotent and relying on the chance that others will somehow kill your opponents for you. FURTHERMORE - EACH OF YOUR SCREWED UP KILLS HELPS EITHER THE TOWN OR MAFIA TOWARDS WINNING, and reduces the amount of time you have to win yourself. So don't deprive yourself of time by killing casually. Only in desperate times (when one of mafia or town are visibly dominating) will you have to employ your kill to try to balance the numbers so that the winning side won't immediately win and end the game for you as well.

On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.

On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.