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Cut it out opz and fishball. If anything, respond to citizen's post
We need to continue talking so here is a summary of each player's posts up to page 82 for those who don't want to or cannot spend their time reading everything. This is kinda long, but it's still better than spending a day catching up:
Ver
+ Show Spoiler +
- argues that overly discussing clues helps the mafia
- talking is good. using clues to start talking is not much good in the first two days.
- mayoral candidates need to have a plan [E.N. I don't believe any had one]
- accuses BC based on past behavior (mayoral post) -- seems like a legitimate accusation
- Bill Murray seems innocent to him
- praises L for not doing a half-assed job with clues.
- does not want to be mayor because of how much time it would take.
- mafia are sitting back and scheming according to Ver
- those making real contributions up to that point (he fails to give out names) are innocent.
- brings up meeple claiming that he's suspicious. Meeple is largely ignored.
- extremely certain that at least Ace or L is mafia (02/15/10 @ 09:14)
- one of his posts was a trap. He says the following people seem to have fallen for it: Empyrean, Nikoner, dozko, 789, Midori, and Bloodyc0bbler. All these people changed their behavior after the post, and it's very likely that they read it.
- provides his own game plan (mayoral candidates had not done this yet) -- once again, very sound. clearly typed up before hand
- comes up with a list of people who have been useless this game
- publicly misinterprets BC's actions as "calculated"
- brings up meeple again (ignored largely)
- comes up with a medic list
- comes up with a detective check list
- took a hit during the night (he was on the medic list, too)
- goes back and summarizes (not analyzes) the dead people's points
- creates an "important posts" post
Extremely quick analysis
Ver has been giving out a lot of hints this game and seems to have taken over the role of teacher for those who have not played the game as much as him. Although his intentions seem clear, he has not yet been right in his accusations, and it's possible that his accusations were meant to waste another mafia family's hits for the night. If Ver does not continue taking hits at night, something's up. His helpfulness throughout the entire game so far, indicates to me, at least, that he isn't working with another group (meaning he's only working with the town). Also, no mafia died at night. I should hope that at least one would have had Ver been on their team. (Nevertheless, Ver could be hoping to use PM information to find the other mafia family. He can actually play as part of the town finding other mafia members.)
DoctorHelvetica
+ Show Spoiler +
- agrees that clues speculation helps the mafia. He just states that as his opinion
- but we should make clue themes
- runs for mayor on the platform that he will almost blindly follow the town (unless it cures him of his blindness through its blatant stupidity)
- agrees with ver's big posts about how to play the game in the beginning
- suspicious of L using clues (says this is bad by pointing to big names who oppose this method)
- points out that Bill Murray's posts have "so many fucking things wrong" with them, and responds to each of them. convinced BM is mafia
- makes an argument compilation up to page 24 @ 07:40
- flip flops from BM to empyream to Ace.
- spams the thread senselessly by replying to BM's troll attempts
- clue links mystlord (February 16 2010 07:24)
- suspicious of zona (clue links) (February 16 2010 09:40)
Very Quick Analysis
DoctorHelvetica is very active for the majority of the game claiming that he's on the internet all day, and when he's not in this thread, he's watching the TSL or some hornet (?) game. He often makes an effort to contribute, but he falls into the clue analysis he claims cannot possibly be helpful (so hypocrite), and he spams the thread. He's indecisive about who he thinks is red: he went from L to Ace/redtooth to BM to mystlord/zona. This is probably because he's impulsive in his posting, and besides the 4-5 very good posts he's made, he treats this thread more like an instant messenger program.
MasterDana
+ Show Spoiler +
-runs for mayor because he's a nice guy
- accuses 789 of being mafia (clue based) (February 15 2010 16:23) His connections seem very shaky at best (especially because he makes more than just one).
- asks numerous self-explanatory questions like "Is this as big a deal as it seems? In previous games, has a Mafia Mayor done a huge amount of damage?"
- defends his ignorance by saying he's really ignorant
- exaggerates the "aggression" towards him
Very Quick Analysis
He's been exceedingly suspicious the entire game. He makes a half-assed attempt at clue analysis which just doesn't hold up. He stays silent the entire game asking rather silly questions. If this were not his first game (or so he claims), I would proclaim rather confidently that he's scummy.
Johnnyspaz
+ Show Spoiler +
- blames inactivity for the first night on family (after the game begins)
- contributes nothing by laughing at how bill murray already got caught in his posting (inaccurate representation, I believe, of what was going on)
- ready to change votes
- says it's difficult to read long posts
- white particles in his book mean dandelions or snow.
Analysis
Largely useless the entire game. He's one of those people lurking the thread coming out every now and then to say "I agree with X." He seems to be trying to contribute with clue analysis, but he's not doing a very good or convincing job at it at all.
citi.zen
+ Show Spoiler +
- runs for office
- disagrees with Ace and Ver. Analyzing clues, on balance, helps the town.
- makes some clue connections for the following people: BC, Ace, empyrean, amber, fishball, zato, mystlord, cynanmachae
- long behavioral post on stuff he's noticed
- spams the thread himself with something he thought was amusing (after complaining that it's easy to bury good posts with spam)
- suggests that Lucaswoj and ver are working together in the same mafia
- shyly suggests that zona is not posting as actively as he should be
- a second clue analysis post in which he finds connections from the night before, and links vivi57, xelin, quickstriker, nikkoner, meeple, ohn, mystlord, Phrujbaz. [Note: he uses the same connection johnnyspaz used earlier)
Analysis
Citi.zen does a lot to help the town. His clue analysis was admittedly weak on some people, and seemingly legitimate on others. He's not afraid to call out Ace, Ver, etc.
vivi57
+ Show Spoiler +
- started late; reads through thread slowly so cannot respond to much.
- clue very important
- believes Ace and BC to be in the same family with empyrean in there as well (coincidentally, another mafia family thought so as well).
- wasted a mafia family's hits in posting that
- medics should protect the mafia ver and mafia BC
- useless spam
Analysis
He hasn't posted much, and what he has hurt the town. He's also spamming, so only further anti-town.
LucasWoJ
+ Show Spoiler +
Wouldn't be fair to do this myself
Xelin
+ Show Spoiler +He's posted so few times you might as well read what he's said: On February 14 2010 18:24 XeliN wrote:
Oh no Bill what hast thou done!! Trying to come up with a plausible explanation for how "other" slipped in there but im drawing blank.
Firstly the activity in this game is amazing, expected to wake up with a good few pages to read, did not expect 20+...
Not entirely sure on who to vote for atm, going to have to go over the thread without skim reading, but I'm glad Bloody emphasised just how bad 10f's plan was (If elected he said he would lynch someone who was Mafia from a previous game) and can't believe more people didnt bring this up, but as I said have only skimmed so far. On February 17 2010 10:37 XeliN wrote:
Ok, I have been exceptionally busy with uni work over the last 2 days and has such havent trusted myself to use the internet (If i do i get no work done simple as that) Apologies for being inactive, I can and will be active from this point on.
Have spent the last hour and a half going through the thread and firstly Ace turning green suprised me, simply reading the whole thread in one big chunk and i felt he was contributing little and not defending himself against accusations well (and he is meant to be a veteran player).
Bill Murray, there seems to be some kind of idea especially at an earlier stage in the thread that he is clearly "innocent". From reading his posts I get quite the opposite feeling, he has been influential and accusatory, even changing votes last minute although was one of the few people who also changed last minute to give an explanation namely: "I didn't want Red to be pardoner". I would be inclined to consider him Mafia far more than a townie, but this is mostly on impression from going through the thread in one big chunk.
Anyway now I'm going to dedicate some time to something I did none of in the last mafia game and try to analyse some clues! On February 17 2010 10:54 XeliN wrote:
One thing that immediately strikes me about the Day 2 post is the Fairy Tale connection that seems inherent within it.
Remeniscient of the "3 little piggies" or "3 bears" and seems like an underlying structure of the whole post. Analysis He adds nothing important to the discussion, and makes a false promise. He has NOT been active since yesterday, when he claimed he would be. His clue analysis is an observation. He doesn't expand on it at all, so I can't garnish any information from that. Right now, his posts have little content and value. I want to see that activity he promised several hours ago.
Amber[Light]
+ Show Spoiler +
- disagreed initially with Ver, but over the course of writing a rebuttal, he agreed with him.
- points out that random people are voting BM and says that town should stop with the Ace BS.
- makes a very useful post summarizing several key players
Analysis
He intentionally skews people's opinions (or makes them into extremes, at least) in order to generate some discussion. He certainly accomplishes this.
fishball
+ Show Spoiler +
- claims green townie
- would lynch abenson first
- very few posts at all, yet claims to be reading
Analysis
Typical fishball. Not enough information to really conclude anything. Very bad for town, and ought to start contributing soon.
quickstriker
+ Show Spoiler +
- says he will be back a little later at the start of the game and comes back 8 hours later impressed by the length of the thread
- wants a summary of pages 24-40
- comes in the next day, lol, and shouts before asking for a summary of pages 40-81. Rather, he EXPECTS a summary.
This guy is extremely amusing. Search all of his posts. It's the most useless crap I've ever seen. He's so lazy that he demands a summary of everything. Very anti-town and ought to start contributing to the town soon.
789
+ Show Spoiler +
- misses the first day of gameplay (Gregorian calendar; not mafia time), and gives an excuse for missing part of the next
- defends himself by saying clues lean more toward Ace and empyrean. Very soft-spoken.
- most of his posts are self-evident "fluff posts"
- clues are useless because they point to me and that shouldn't be
- acknowledges both days that the clues fit him
- accuses Zona [IMPORTANT]
Analysis
He talks often, and although he contributes something, his posts often seem empty. He goes out on a limb in day 2 accusing zona of being the last remaining person left who could fit the clue empyrean and Ace both fit. He is right about his limited activity. He could be green or mafia hoping to eliminate the other mafia family.
dozko
+ Show Spoiler +
- disagrees with Ace about clues
- believes L to be green for several reasons: (1) clue analysis at beginning = pro town; (2) voting pattern indicates L is innocent
- calls out xelin for not posting much
Analysis
Doesn't post often, but when he does, his posts are well-thought out. He should post more often to be more useful to the town.
nikoner
+ Show Spoiler +- joins up after 28 pages - clues are always right, even if your interpretation of them is wrong. (lololol) - lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. - mafia running for office - randomly accuses Phrujbaz of being mafia. NO justification given, so of course, no one cares. - distraught that redtooth is pushing for office so hard - advises L not to lynch anyone if that option exists.He's "wary of the possibility that lynching a mafia will lower one family's KP" Analysis His logic makes no sense, and he doesn't contribute anything to the town. It seems he's playing the game for personal pride. Better start contributing something soon.
tree-hugger
+ Show Spoiler +Read his posts! On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.
And activity of course.
I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.
On February 15 2010 13:18 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 13:11 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 13:09 Bill Murray wrote:On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.
And activity of course.
I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.
He doesn't even WANT to be mayor. I nominate tree.hugger for mayor, because the best person with the power is someone who doesn't want to use it. no Hilarious, but no. Analysis Immediately worthy of being lynched. His lack of contribution to the game is absurd.
Shockeyy
+ Show Spoiler +
- announces that he read everything but besides just that, he says nothing
- spams
- agrees that decafchicken is lurking and is GF
Analysis
Another one with five one-line posts in the thread. His behavior in his posts is very weird. No one's accused him yet. Someone ought to. Do any clues link up to him? Something is very off with him. He's definitely worth another look.
meeple
+ Show Spoiler +
- runs for mayor without a real platform
- stay impartial
- profile the killers in the day posts right away
- BC's out-of-character is not enough to lynch him. (defends BC)
- defends BM; not convinced he's red.
- hunt for mafia; don't rely on mafia crosshits
- responds to trolls
- claims mid-term season is cutting down on his time in mafia, but he has nearly 100 posts in this thread, and he's just about always in here. He might as well stop responding to trolls and post something more useful.
- empyrean is more red than Ace, but Ace, if red, gives us more information
- tells us what a mafia would and would not do [this sets off an alarm]
Analysis
Everything he does strikes me as safe and calculated, so to speak. He's unwilling to take any risks. He lies about inactivity. He's playing like mafia. It's all there.
chezinu
+ Show Spoiler +
troll; I'm not going to waste my time
scamp
+ Show Spoiler +
- claims to be green.
- argues that medics RC'ing at any point is a bad move
Analysis
Green
Zona
+ Show Spoiler +
- town has less impact on the game than mafia.
- game is imbalanced against the town
- town should point out mafia for the other family to kill at night (but concedes that this can be bad because it might result in a superior mafia family)
- defends accusations by saying that being passive this game is the best way to play it from the town's point of view
Comments
Start playing. Passivity doesn't really help the town much either. Being active always helps, even in this format.
L
+ Show Spoiler +
- claims clues blatantly point towards Ace
- clues are going to be easy in this game because of the set-up
- constantly reminds people not to make empty posts because it will discourage others from reading the thread.
- implores that those who do not agree with how he interpretted the clues to post. BC heeds this post. L responds logically to BC's post.
- claims empyrean was apathetic [Note: I think he meant indifferent, and not apathetic.]
- accuses four people of being in mafia clue-wise "nemy, madnessman, mystlord, phrubaz"
- going to post in twelve hours explaining how he reached that conclusion
Analysis
Seems town-sided, but one cannot overlook how royally he screwed up on the clues first day. He was still willing to listen to and respond to others' interpretation of them though.
laaan
+ Show Spoiler +- potential clue fits: 789, ace, malongo, amber[light], mystlord - spams the thread with "chezinu makes me giggle"s key post: On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORMI am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATESAll of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Show nested quote +2/14 16:21
logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.
now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess. Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSESome may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATEIf elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANSTo kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;drYou shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. Everything else is pretty much useless Analysis I'm not sure what to think of him. He doesn't seem to be pro-town at all times and is just reiterating everything that's already been said, but then he comes out with that. It's possible he's green, and it's possible he's red.
I'm tired. I'll continue this in a later post.
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Glad to see you got the full scoop on everybody.. probably can't get a chance to go through the last 50 pages until tonight anyway. I'll continue from here on out to look at what people are up to.
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On February 18 2010 04:51 LucasWoJ wrote:
Cut it out opz and fishball. If anything, respond to citizen's post
Maybe I've missed it, but what is there to respond?
...and what do you mean cut it out? Someone asked about my profile, I responded. Compared to the non-game related shit the other guys dished out in the past 82 pages, sure.
Yes I've been reading the thread a lot, as I've taken this entire week off work to watch Olympics, so I'm checking this thread very often.
Also, a lot of you guys seems to not remember there are two Mafia families in this game. If I were you, I would not do anything and let it all play out.
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by the way, Nikoner is Mafia. I can't believe none of you guys have noticed this yet.
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On February 18 2010 04:51 LucasWoJ wrote:Cut it out opz and fishball. If anything, respond to citizen's post We need to continue talking so here is a summary of each player's posts up to page 82 for those who don't want to or cannot spend their time reading everything. This is kinda long, but it's still better than spending a day catching up: Ver + Show Spoiler +
- argues that overly discussing clues helps the mafia
- talking is good. using clues to start talking is not much good in the first two days.
- mayoral candidates need to have a plan [E.N. I don't believe any had one]
- accuses BC based on past behavior (mayoral post) -- seems like a legitimate accusation
- Bill Murray seems innocent to him
- praises L for not doing a half-assed job with clues.
- does not want to be mayor because of how much time it would take.
- mafia are sitting back and scheming according to Ver
- those making real contributions up to that point (he fails to give out names) are innocent.
- brings up meeple claiming that he's suspicious. Meeple is largely ignored.
- extremely certain that at least Ace or L is mafia (02/15/10 @ 09:14)
- one of his posts was a trap. He says the following people seem to have fallen for it: Empyrean, Nikoner, dozko, 789, Midori, and Bloodyc0bbler. All these people changed their behavior after the post, and it's very likely that they read it.
- provides his own game plan (mayoral candidates had not done this yet) -- once again, very sound. clearly typed up before hand
- comes up with a list of people who have been useless this game
- publicly misinterprets BC's actions as "calculated"
- brings up meeple again (ignored largely)
- comes up with a medic list
- comes up with a detective check list
- took a hit during the night (he was on the medic list, too)
- goes back and summarizes (not analyzes) the dead people's points
- creates an "important posts" post
Extremely quick analysis
Ver has been giving out a lot of hints this game and seems to have taken over the role of teacher for those who have not played the game as much as him. Although his intentions seem clear, he has not yet been right in his accusations, and it's possible that his accusations were meant to waste another mafia family's hits for the night. If Ver does not continue taking hits at night, something's up. His helpfulness throughout the entire game so far, indicates to me, at least, that he isn't working with another group (meaning he's only working with the town). Also, no mafia died at night. I should hope that at least one would have had Ver been on their team. (Nevertheless, Ver could be hoping to use PM information to find the other mafia family. He can actually play as part of the town finding other mafia members.)
DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler +
- agrees that clues speculation helps the mafia. He just states that as his opinion
- but we should make clue themes
- runs for mayor on the platform that he will almost blindly follow the town (unless it cures him of his blindness through its blatant stupidity)
- agrees with ver's big posts about how to play the game in the beginning
- suspicious of L using clues (says this is bad by pointing to big names who oppose this method)
- points out that Bill Murray's posts have "so many fucking things wrong" with them, and responds to each of them. convinced BM is mafia
- makes an argument compilation up to page 24 @ 07:40
- flip flops from BM to empyream to Ace.
- spams the thread senselessly by replying to BM's troll attempts
- clue links mystlord (February 16 2010 07:24)
- suspicious of zona (clue links) (February 16 2010 09:40)
Very Quick Analysis
DoctorHelvetica is very active for the majority of the game claiming that he's on the internet all day, and when he's not in this thread, he's watching the TSL or some hornet (?) game. He often makes an effort to contribute, but he falls into the clue analysis he claims cannot possibly be helpful (so hypocrite), and he spams the thread. He's indecisive about who he thinks is red: he went from L to Ace/redtooth to BM to mystlord/zona. This is probably because he's impulsive in his posting, and besides the 4-5 very good posts he's made, he treats this thread more like an instant messenger program.
MasterDana + Show Spoiler +
-runs for mayor because he's a nice guy
- accuses 789 of being mafia (clue based) (February 15 2010 16:23) His connections seem very shaky at best (especially because he makes more than just one).
- asks numerous self-explanatory questions like "Is this as big a deal as it seems? In previous games, has a Mafia Mayor done a huge amount of damage?"
- defends his ignorance by saying he's really ignorant
- exaggerates the "aggression" towards him
Very Quick Analysis
He's been exceedingly suspicious the entire game. He makes a half-assed attempt at clue analysis which just doesn't hold up. He stays silent the entire game asking rather silly questions. If this were not his first game (or so he claims), I would proclaim rather confidently that he's scummy.
Johnnyspaz + Show Spoiler +
- blames inactivity for the first night on family (after the game begins)
- contributes nothing by laughing at how bill murray already got caught in his posting (inaccurate representation, I believe, of what was going on)
- ready to change votes
- says it's difficult to read long posts
- white particles in his book mean dandelions or snow.
Analysis
Largely useless the entire game. He's one of those people lurking the thread coming out every now and then to say "I agree with X." He seems to be trying to contribute with clue analysis, but he's not doing a very good or convincing job at it at all.
citi.zen + Show Spoiler +
- runs for office
- disagrees with Ace and Ver. Analyzing clues, on balance, helps the town.
- makes some clue connections for the following people: BC, Ace, empyrean, amber, fishball, zato, mystlord, cynanmachae
- long behavioral post on stuff he's noticed
- spams the thread himself with something he thought was amusing (after complaining that it's easy to bury good posts with spam)
- suggests that Lucaswoj and ver are working together in the same mafia
- shyly suggests that zona is not posting as actively as he should be
- a second clue analysis post in which he finds connections from the night before, and links vivi57, xelin, quickstriker, nikkoner, meeple, ohn, mystlord, Phrujbaz. [Note: he uses the same connection johnnyspaz used earlier)
Analysis
Citi.zen does a lot to help the town. His clue analysis was admittedly weak on some people, and seemingly legitimate on others. He's not afraid to call out Ace, Ver, etc.
vivi57 + Show Spoiler +
- started late; reads through thread slowly so cannot respond to much.
- clue very important
- believes Ace and BC to be in the same family with empyrean in there as well (coincidentally, another mafia family thought so as well).
- wasted a mafia family's hits in posting that
- medics should protect the mafia ver and mafia BC
- useless spam
Analysis
He hasn't posted much, and what he has hurt the town. He's also spamming, so only further anti-town.
LucasWoJ + Show Spoiler +
Wouldn't be fair to do this myself
Xelin + Show Spoiler +He's posted so few times you might as well read what he's said: On February 14 2010 18:24 XeliN wrote:
Oh no Bill what hast thou done!! Trying to come up with a plausible explanation for how "other" slipped in there but im drawing blank.
Firstly the activity in this game is amazing, expected to wake up with a good few pages to read, did not expect 20+...
Not entirely sure on who to vote for atm, going to have to go over the thread without skim reading, but I'm glad Bloody emphasised just how bad 10f's plan was (If elected he said he would lynch someone who was Mafia from a previous game) and can't believe more people didnt bring this up, but as I said have only skimmed so far. On February 17 2010 10:37 XeliN wrote:
Ok, I have been exceptionally busy with uni work over the last 2 days and has such havent trusted myself to use the internet (If i do i get no work done simple as that) Apologies for being inactive, I can and will be active from this point on.
Have spent the last hour and a half going through the thread and firstly Ace turning green suprised me, simply reading the whole thread in one big chunk and i felt he was contributing little and not defending himself against accusations well (and he is meant to be a veteran player).
Bill Murray, there seems to be some kind of idea especially at an earlier stage in the thread that he is clearly "innocent". From reading his posts I get quite the opposite feeling, he has been influential and accusatory, even changing votes last minute although was one of the few people who also changed last minute to give an explanation namely: "I didn't want Red to be pardoner". I would be inclined to consider him Mafia far more than a townie, but this is mostly on impression from going through the thread in one big chunk.
Anyway now I'm going to dedicate some time to something I did none of in the last mafia game and try to analyse some clues! On February 17 2010 10:54 XeliN wrote:
One thing that immediately strikes me about the Day 2 post is the Fairy Tale connection that seems inherent within it.
Remeniscient of the "3 little piggies" or "3 bears" and seems like an underlying structure of the whole post. Analysis He adds nothing important to the discussion, and makes a false promise. He has NOT been active since yesterday, when he claimed he would be. His clue analysis is an observation. He doesn't expand on it at all, so I can't garnish any information from that. Right now, his posts have little content and value. I want to see that activity he promised several hours ago. Amber[Light] + Show Spoiler +
- disagreed initially with Ver, but over the course of writing a rebuttal, he agreed with him.
- points out that random people are voting BM and says that town should stop with the Ace BS.
- makes a very useful post summarizing several key players
Analysis
He intentionally skews people's opinions (or makes them into extremes, at least) in order to generate some discussion. He certainly accomplishes this.
fishball + Show Spoiler +
- claims green townie
- would lynch abenson first
- very few posts at all, yet claims to be reading
Analysis
Typical fishball. Not enough information to really conclude anything. Very bad for town, and ought to start contributing soon.
quickstriker + Show Spoiler +
- says he will be back a little later at the start of the game and comes back 8 hours later impressed by the length of the thread
- wants a summary of pages 24-40
- comes in the next day, lol, and shouts before asking for a summary of pages 40-81. Rather, he EXPECTS a summary.
This guy is extremely amusing. Search all of his posts. It's the most useless crap I've ever seen. He's so lazy that he demands a summary of everything. Very anti-town and ought to start contributing to the town soon.
789 + Show Spoiler +
- misses the first day of gameplay (Gregorian calendar; not mafia time), and gives an excuse for missing part of the next
- defends himself by saying clues lean more toward Ace and empyrean. Very soft-spoken.
- most of his posts are self-evident "fluff posts"
- clues are useless because they point to me and that shouldn't be
- acknowledges both days that the clues fit him
- accuses Zona [IMPORTANT]
Analysis
He talks often, and although he contributes something, his posts often seem empty. He goes out on a limb in day 2 accusing zona of being the last remaining person left who could fit the clue empyrean and Ace both fit. He is right about his limited activity. He could be green or mafia hoping to eliminate the other mafia family.
dozko + Show Spoiler +
- disagrees with Ace about clues
- believes L to be green for several reasons: (1) clue analysis at beginning = pro town; (2) voting pattern indicates L is innocent
- calls out xelin for not posting much
Analysis
Doesn't post often, but when he does, his posts are well-thought out. He should post more often to be more useful to the town.
nikoner + Show Spoiler +- joins up after 28 pages - clues are always right, even if your interpretation of them is wrong. (lololol) - lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. - mafia running for office - randomly accuses Phrujbaz of being mafia. NO justification given, so of course, no one cares. - distraught that redtooth is pushing for office so hard - advises L not to lynch anyone if that option exists.He's "wary of the possibility that lynching a mafia will lower one family's KP" Analysis His logic makes no sense, and he doesn't contribute anything to the town. It seems he's playing the game for personal pride. Better start contributing something soon. tree-hugger + Show Spoiler +Read his posts! On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.
And activity of course.
I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.
On February 15 2010 13:18 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 13:11 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 13:09 Bill Murray wrote:On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.
And activity of course.
I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.
He doesn't even WANT to be mayor. I nominate tree.hugger for mayor, because the best person with the power is someone who doesn't want to use it. no Hilarious, but no. Analysis Immediately worthy of being lynched. His lack of contribution to the game is absurd. Shockeyy + Show Spoiler +
- announces that he read everything but besides just that, he says nothing
- spams
- agrees that decafchicken is lurking and is GF
Analysis
Another one with five one-line posts in the thread. His behavior in his posts is very weird. No one's accused him yet. Someone ought to. Do any clues link up to him? Something is very off with him. He's definitely worth another look.
meeple + Show Spoiler +
- runs for mayor without a real platform
- stay impartial
- profile the killers in the day posts right away
- BC's out-of-character is not enough to lynch him. (defends BC)
- defends BM; not convinced he's red.
- hunt for mafia; don't rely on mafia crosshits
- responds to trolls
- claims mid-term season is cutting down on his time in mafia, but he has nearly 100 posts in this thread, and he's just about always in here. He might as well stop responding to trolls and post something more useful.
- empyrean is more red than Ace, but Ace, if red, gives us more information
- tells us what a mafia would and would not do [this sets off an alarm]
Analysis
Everything he does strikes me as safe and calculated, so to speak. He's unwilling to take any risks. He lies about inactivity. He's playing like mafia. It's all there.
chezinu + Show Spoiler +
troll; I'm not going to waste my time
scamp + Show Spoiler +
- claims to be green.
- argues that medics RC'ing at any point is a bad move
Analysis
Green
Zona + Show Spoiler +
- town has less impact on the game than mafia.
- game is imbalanced against the town
- town should point out mafia for the other family to kill at night (but concedes that this can be bad because it might result in a superior mafia family)
- defends accusations by saying that being passive this game is the best way to play it from the town's point of view
Comments
Start playing. Passivity doesn't really help the town much either. Being active always helps, even in this format.
L + Show Spoiler +
- claims clues blatantly point towards Ace
- clues are going to be easy in this game because of the set-up
- constantly reminds people not to make empty posts because it will discourage others from reading the thread.
- implores that those who do not agree with how he interpretted the clues to post. BC heeds this post. L responds logically to BC's post.
- claims empyrean was apathetic [Note: I think he meant indifferent, and not apathetic.]
- accuses four people of being in mafia clue-wise "nemy, madnessman, mystlord, phrubaz"
- going to post in twelve hours explaining how he reached that conclusion
Analysis
Seems town-sided, but one cannot overlook how royally he screwed up on the clues first day. He was still willing to listen to and respond to others' interpretation of them though.
laaan + Show Spoiler +- potential clue fits: 789, ace, malongo, amber[light], mystlord - spams the thread with "chezinu makes me giggle"s key post: On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORMI am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATESAll of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Show nested quote +2/14 16:21
logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.
now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess. Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSESome may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATEIf elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANSTo kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;drYou shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. Everything else is pretty much useless Analysis I'm not sure what to think of him. He doesn't seem to be pro-town at all times and is just reiterating everything that's already been said, but then he comes out with that. It's possible he's green, and it's possible he's red. I'm tired. I'll continue this in a later post.
If you really want to know why my posting in this game is weird, go read the BC Mafia thread. Everyone accused me when I was trying to help and I got lynched when I was a townie. I actually want to keep playing the game this time. I'm doing my own research and adding things up. I'm not going to drop anything till I have good enough proof and hard evidence. Call it weird, but that's how it is. I rather sit back and analyze everything myself than get involved with other people that always would just rather lynch the person that actually tries to help.
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Alright...
Thanks to some of you guys pm'ing me to remind me that I should start contributing to the town and being a good member of the society...
In order for us to survive, I think all of need to contribute.
I'm sorry that I haven't really contributed so far, but I will now start posting actual information.
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Unfortunately I've got a rather beefy marked assignment due in friday, so I wont be keeping up with the thread at least until friday evening if im not going out. I pm'd incog and will be abstaining from the day 2 vote.
PS. Foolishness, maybe NOBODY CARES but Im informing you guys anyway so you dont go medieval on my ass 
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On February 18 2010 05:53 Abenson wrote:
Alright...
Thanks to some of you guys pm'ing me to remind me that I should start contributing to the town and being a good member of the society...
In order for us to survive, I think all of need to contribute.
I'm sorry that I haven't really contributed so far, but I will now start posting actual information.
Then do it already.
You're sitting here talking about how you should and that you're going to, but then you end up posting this BS and you will probably quote a few people and be like 'oh I agree.'
Start doing something already.
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can people lay off me in relation to spam? i really have been trying to cut that out
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I'll make myself more useful today. Yesterday I ended up going out (with MasterDana dohoho) and I was doing the marble hornets thing + some packing, which is why I didn't post much.
I am usually on the internet all day but I do feel bad for my previous 'spamming' so I'm staying away from mafia until I have the time to really take it in and make sure I can contribute something useful. I'm going to catch up now. Great post LucasWoJ!
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Announcement: Don't be surprised if my activity drops significantly... I made it into SC2 beta. WOOHOOOOO! Download faster damnit!
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Going to specifically get some people I haven't gotten yet.
On February 18 2010 03:59 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Thanks Fishball...But damn...You are fast good sir! Fast indeed!
NOBODY CARES!
On February 18 2010 04:11 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 17:14 Vivi57 wrote:
tl;dr: Ace and bc are in the same family with redtooth as a likely third member i love it when people are so wrong. 
NOBODY CARES!
On February 18 2010 05:04 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Glad to see you got the full scoop on everybody.. probably can't get a chance to go through the last 50 pages until tonight anyway. I'll continue from here on out to look at what people are up to.
hi how ya doin'? NOBODY CARES!
On February 18 2010 05:06 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 04:51 LucasWoJ wrote:
Cut it out opz and fishball. If anything, respond to citizen's post
Maybe I've missed it, but what is there to respond? ...and what do you mean cut it out? Someone asked about my profile, I responded. Compared to the non-game related shit the other guys dished out in the past 82 pages, sure. Yes I've been reading the thread a lot, as I've taken this entire week off work to watch Olympics, so I'm checking this thread very often. Also, a lot of you guys seems to not remember there are two Mafia families in this game. If I were you, I would not do anything and let it all play out.
NOBODY CARES!
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Bill, why did you never give us the timestamp on the PM sent by Ver showing that you were green?
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Ok, lol. I am back.
First off: I may have missed the mark on Empyrean and Ace, but the amount of people sitting back when I asked everyone to brainstorm was incredible. I think I had a grand total of 1 person make a coherent argument against Ace, which I accepted as substantially convincing, and cobbler argued against Emp.
But to say that I accused Ace, Emp and 789 and only them on the basis of clues is flat out false. I admitted that Cynan might have been a good catch, and that Mystlord was a very good target. I also requested that Ver put bill murray on the do not protect list. There are others, but frankly the omission of Mystlord from the list of people I thought were guilty via clues is hilarious. I even had Ver add him to the list of people I suspected. If I'm guilty of being wrong, so be it, but don't assume all my targets flipped green, because more than half of the people i fingered day 1 are still alive.
On to today:
Why did I accuse the people I did 12 hours ago? Lol because they're fishy as fuck.
But lets talk about that after some preliminaries:
1) It seems readily apparent to some that there are two 'group's in the set of clues: the ridge team and the other team. I buy this theory for the simple fact that the ridge team has showed up twice and is identified as a discernible group. So i'm going to call them: Ridge Team and Meadow Team. Meadow Team is a shitty name, but frankly it kinda makes both teams feel like Pokemon editions, and that's cool in my book.
2) Incog is using a lot of herrings. Intentional, even. If that's the case, he's basing personas out of a consistent combination of profiles. A picture, a quote, whatever. If that's the case, then he's going to be strict regarding how he describes multiple element clues and potentially more liberal with single source clues. The Scythe/Spear difference should emblemize that.
Okay, with that in mind:
Lets look at der clues.
1) There are Six mafia members described. The bomb was the blocked on Ver or not set in the first place. The clues also seem to indicate that cobbler was hit once per team. There are a few conclusions which flow from this, most of them which are bad for us with respect to analysing why Ver was bombed if he was bombed. Prior cluesets normally involve the hatter blowing people the fuck up during the clues which didn't happen here, so my prediction about the bomb being blocked seems accurate and consistent.
Previous clues:
Moonlight rider's probably Cynan
Emp's blue light killer might be 789 or amber. I didn't originally think that amber came in a blue form, but wikipedia told me otherwise.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber
If that's the case, I hate incog.
Today's clues:
The final paragraph, in my mind, points to nemY:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=nemY
The fact that things were discovered the next day fits his profile quote, while the uproar fits his picture perfectly. The connection between someone falling and a message inciting the town to rage also fits. I really want to see other possibilities for this one, because I think this is a really elegant clue.
White floating thing is either Phrujbaz or OhN.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Phrujbaz
Pretty self evident. The fact that its a meadow and the fact that the guy gets a runny nose point me heavily towards the dandelion seeds over the sakura. Then again, I don't live in an area with cherry trees so I don't know how they work outside of anime.
The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman
Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though.
And last but not least: Mystlord.
THERES A GUY ON A ROOF AGAIN, WHO'S STANDING IN FRONT OF A LIGHT, HE KILLS SOME PEOPLE. DERP.
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On February 18 2010 05:06 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 04:51 LucasWoJ wrote:
Cut it out opz and fishball. If anything, respond to citizen's post
Maybe I've missed it, but what is there to respond? ...and what do you mean cut it out? Someone asked about my profile, I responded. Compared to the non-game related shit the other guys dished out in the past 82 pages, sure. Yes I've been reading the thread a lot, as I've taken this entire week off work to watch Olympics, so I'm checking this thread very often. Also, a lot of you guys seems to not remember there are two Mafia families in this game. If I were you, I would not do anything and let it all play out.
I'm with Fishball...I just wanted a little further information on him, and THEN I went stating some people and connections...
=/
If he's your topic of discussion it doesn't mean he has to be everyones.
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PMs with Chezinu, and since he won't reveal any information with me, i'm forced to reveal information to you all.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
i asked "whats our plan of action now, chez?" after the day one murder
to which he replied: "I sided with a mafia team" - 2/17 15:49
even if he's joking, this isn't funny.
"I am using my abilities how they want me to use them. That why I will live longer!"
2/17/10 15:54
he then goes onto say that he knows who multiple mafia members are through blackmail.
With a town lynch coming up, wouldn't it be nice for us to get someone who we know is red for a change? We have lost nothing but a blue and a ton of greens, and if you all keep voting to lynch me we will be losing yet another green. Maybe via threat of lynching, like if we change our votes to Chezinu, we can pressure him into posting what he knows based upon his "rolechecks", whether or not he's lying about being a detective at all can then be analyzed.
the timestamp from the Ver post: 2/14 11:13
only for you, faronel.
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On February 18 2010 04:51 LucasWoJ wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Cut it out opz and fishball. If anything, respond to citizen's post We need to continue talking so here is a summary of each player's posts up to page 82 for those who don't want to or cannot spend their time reading everything. This is kinda long, but it's still better than spending a day catching up: Ver + Show Spoiler +
- argues that overly discussing clues helps the mafia
- talking is good. using clues to start talking is not much good in the first two days.
- mayoral candidates need to have a plan [E.N. I don't believe any had one]
- accuses BC based on past behavior (mayoral post) -- seems like a legitimate accusation
- Bill Murray seems innocent to him
- praises L for not doing a half-assed job with clues.
- does not want to be mayor because of how much time it would take.
- mafia are sitting back and scheming according to Ver
- those making real contributions up to that point (he fails to give out names) are innocent.
- brings up meeple claiming that he's suspicious. Meeple is largely ignored.
- extremely certain that at least Ace or L is mafia (02/15/10 @ 09:14)
- one of his posts was a trap. He says the following people seem to have fallen for it: Empyrean, Nikoner, dozko, 789, Midori, and Bloodyc0bbler. All these people changed their behavior after the post, and it's very likely that they read it.
- provides his own game plan (mayoral candidates had not done this yet) -- once again, very sound. clearly typed up before hand
- comes up with a list of people who have been useless this game
- publicly misinterprets BC's actions as "calculated"
- brings up meeple again (ignored largely)
- comes up with a medic list
- comes up with a detective check list
- took a hit during the night (he was on the medic list, too)
- goes back and summarizes (not analyzes) the dead people's points
- creates an "important posts" post
Extremely quick analysis
Ver has been giving out a lot of hints this game and seems to have taken over the role of teacher for those who have not played the game as much as him. Although his intentions seem clear, he has not yet been right in his accusations, and it's possible that his accusations were meant to waste another mafia family's hits for the night. If Ver does not continue taking hits at night, something's up. His helpfulness throughout the entire game so far, indicates to me, at least, that he isn't working with another group (meaning he's only working with the town). Also, no mafia died at night. I should hope that at least one would have had Ver been on their team. (Nevertheless, Ver could be hoping to use PM information to find the other mafia family. He can actually play as part of the town finding other mafia members.)
DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler +
- agrees that clues speculation helps the mafia. He just states that as his opinion
- but we should make clue themes
- runs for mayor on the platform that he will almost blindly follow the town (unless it cures him of his blindness through its blatant stupidity)
- agrees with ver's big posts about how to play the game in the beginning
- suspicious of L using clues (says this is bad by pointing to big names who oppose this method)
- points out that Bill Murray's posts have "so many fucking things wrong" with them, and responds to each of them. convinced BM is mafia
- makes an argument compilation up to page 24 @ 07:40
- flip flops from BM to empyream to Ace.
- spams the thread senselessly by replying to BM's troll attempts
- clue links mystlord (February 16 2010 07:24)
- suspicious of zona (clue links) (February 16 2010 09:40)
Very Quick Analysis
DoctorHelvetica is very active for the majority of the game claiming that he's on the internet all day, and when he's not in this thread, he's watching the TSL or some hornet (?) game. He often makes an effort to contribute, but he falls into the clue analysis he claims cannot possibly be helpful (so hypocrite), and he spams the thread. He's indecisive about who he thinks is red: he went from L to Ace/redtooth to BM to mystlord/zona. This is probably because he's impulsive in his posting, and besides the 4-5 very good posts he's made, he treats this thread more like an instant messenger program.
MasterDana + Show Spoiler +
-runs for mayor because he's a nice guy
- accuses 789 of being mafia (clue based) (February 15 2010 16:23) His connections seem very shaky at best (especially because he makes more than just one).
- asks numerous self-explanatory questions like "Is this as big a deal as it seems? In previous games, has a Mafia Mayor done a huge amount of damage?"
- defends his ignorance by saying he's really ignorant
- exaggerates the "aggression" towards him
Very Quick Analysis
He's been exceedingly suspicious the entire game. He makes a half-assed attempt at clue analysis which just doesn't hold up. He stays silent the entire game asking rather silly questions. If this were not his first game (or so he claims), I would proclaim rather confidently that he's scummy.
Johnnyspaz + Show Spoiler +
- blames inactivity for the first night on family (after the game begins)
- contributes nothing by laughing at how bill murray already got caught in his posting (inaccurate representation, I believe, of what was going on)
- ready to change votes
- says it's difficult to read long posts
- white particles in his book mean dandelions or snow.
Analysis
Largely useless the entire game. He's one of those people lurking the thread coming out every now and then to say "I agree with X." He seems to be trying to contribute with clue analysis, but he's not doing a very good or convincing job at it at all.
citi.zen + Show Spoiler +
- runs for office
- disagrees with Ace and Ver. Analyzing clues, on balance, helps the town.
- makes some clue connections for the following people: BC, Ace, empyrean, amber, fishball, zato, mystlord, cynanmachae
- long behavioral post on stuff he's noticed
- spams the thread himself with something he thought was amusing (after complaining that it's easy to bury good posts with spam)
- suggests that Lucaswoj and ver are working together in the same mafia
- shyly suggests that zona is not posting as actively as he should be
- a second clue analysis post in which he finds connections from the night before, and links vivi57, xelin, quickstriker, nikkoner, meeple, ohn, mystlord, Phrujbaz. [Note: he uses the same connection johnnyspaz used earlier)
Analysis
Citi.zen does a lot to help the town. His clue analysis was admittedly weak on some people, and seemingly legitimate on others. He's not afraid to call out Ace, Ver, etc.
vivi57 + Show Spoiler +
- started late; reads through thread slowly so cannot respond to much.
- clue very important
- believes Ace and BC to be in the same family with empyrean in there as well (coincidentally, another mafia family thought so as well).
- wasted a mafia family's hits in posting that
- medics should protect the mafia ver and mafia BC
- useless spam
Analysis
He hasn't posted much, and what he has hurt the town. He's also spamming, so only further anti-town.
LucasWoJ + Show Spoiler +
Wouldn't be fair to do this myself
Xelin + Show Spoiler +He's posted so few times you might as well read what he's said: On February 14 2010 18:24 XeliN wrote:
Oh no Bill what hast thou done!! Trying to come up with a plausible explanation for how "other" slipped in there but im drawing blank.
Firstly the activity in this game is amazing, expected to wake up with a good few pages to read, did not expect 20+...
Not entirely sure on who to vote for atm, going to have to go over the thread without skim reading, but I'm glad Bloody emphasised just how bad 10f's plan was (If elected he said he would lynch someone who was Mafia from a previous game) and can't believe more people didnt bring this up, but as I said have only skimmed so far. On February 17 2010 10:37 XeliN wrote:
Ok, I have been exceptionally busy with uni work over the last 2 days and has such havent trusted myself to use the internet (If i do i get no work done simple as that) Apologies for being inactive, I can and will be active from this point on.
Have spent the last hour and a half going through the thread and firstly Ace turning green suprised me, simply reading the whole thread in one big chunk and i felt he was contributing little and not defending himself against accusations well (and he is meant to be a veteran player).
Bill Murray, there seems to be some kind of idea especially at an earlier stage in the thread that he is clearly "innocent". From reading his posts I get quite the opposite feeling, he has been influential and accusatory, even changing votes last minute although was one of the few people who also changed last minute to give an explanation namely: "I didn't want Red to be pardoner". I would be inclined to consider him Mafia far more than a townie, but this is mostly on impression from going through the thread in one big chunk.
Anyway now I'm going to dedicate some time to something I did none of in the last mafia game and try to analyse some clues! On February 17 2010 10:54 XeliN wrote:
One thing that immediately strikes me about the Day 2 post is the Fairy Tale connection that seems inherent within it.
Remeniscient of the "3 little piggies" or "3 bears" and seems like an underlying structure of the whole post. Analysis He adds nothing important to the discussion, and makes a false promise. He has NOT been active since yesterday, when he claimed he would be. His clue analysis is an observation. He doesn't expand on it at all, so I can't garnish any information from that. Right now, his posts have little content and value. I want to see that activity he promised several hours ago. Amber[Light] + Show Spoiler +
- disagreed initially with Ver, but over the course of writing a rebuttal, he agreed with him.
- points out that random people are voting BM and says that town should stop with the Ace BS.
- makes a very useful post summarizing several key players
Analysis
He intentionally skews people's opinions (or makes them into extremes, at least) in order to generate some discussion. He certainly accomplishes this.
fishball + Show Spoiler +
- claims green townie
- would lynch abenson first
- very few posts at all, yet claims to be reading
Analysis
Typical fishball. Not enough information to really conclude anything. Very bad for town, and ought to start contributing soon.
quickstriker + Show Spoiler +
- says he will be back a little later at the start of the game and comes back 8 hours later impressed by the length of the thread
- wants a summary of pages 24-40
- comes in the next day, lol, and shouts before asking for a summary of pages 40-81. Rather, he EXPECTS a summary.
This guy is extremely amusing. Search all of his posts. It's the most useless crap I've ever seen. He's so lazy that he demands a summary of everything. Very anti-town and ought to start contributing to the town soon.
789 + Show Spoiler +
- misses the first day of gameplay (Gregorian calendar; not mafia time), and gives an excuse for missing part of the next
- defends himself by saying clues lean more toward Ace and empyrean. Very soft-spoken.
- most of his posts are self-evident "fluff posts"
- clues are useless because they point to me and that shouldn't be
- acknowledges both days that the clues fit him
- accuses Zona [IMPORTANT]
Analysis
He talks often, and although he contributes something, his posts often seem empty. He goes out on a limb in day 2 accusing zona of being the last remaining person left who could fit the clue empyrean and Ace both fit. He is right about his limited activity. He could be green or mafia hoping to eliminate the other mafia family.
dozko + Show Spoiler +
- disagrees with Ace about clues
- believes L to be green for several reasons: (1) clue analysis at beginning = pro town; (2) voting pattern indicates L is innocent
- calls out xelin for not posting much
Analysis
Doesn't post often, but when he does, his posts are well-thought out. He should post more often to be more useful to the town.
nikoner + Show Spoiler +- joins up after 28 pages - clues are always right, even if your interpretation of them is wrong. (lololol) - lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. - mafia running for office - randomly accuses Phrujbaz of being mafia. NO justification given, so of course, no one cares. - distraught that redtooth is pushing for office so hard - advises L not to lynch anyone if that option exists.He's "wary of the possibility that lynching a mafia will lower one family's KP" Analysis His logic makes no sense, and he doesn't contribute anything to the town. It seems he's playing the game for personal pride. Better start contributing something soon. tree-hugger + Show Spoiler +Read his posts! On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.
And activity of course.
I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.
On February 15 2010 13:18 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 13:11 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 13:09 Bill Murray wrote:On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote:
I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game.
And activity of course.
I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego.
He doesn't even WANT to be mayor. I nominate tree.hugger for mayor, because the best person with the power is someone who doesn't want to use it. no Hilarious, but no. Analysis Immediately worthy of being lynched. His lack of contribution to the game is absurd. Shockeyy + Show Spoiler +
- announces that he read everything but besides just that, he says nothing
- spams
- agrees that decafchicken is lurking and is GF
Analysis
Another one with five one-line posts in the thread. His behavior in his posts is very weird. No one's accused him yet. Someone ought to. Do any clues link up to him? Something is very off with him. He's definitely worth another look.
meeple + Show Spoiler +
- runs for mayor without a real platform
- stay impartial
- profile the killers in the day posts right away
- BC's out-of-character is not enough to lynch him. (defends BC)
- defends BM; not convinced he's red.
- hunt for mafia; don't rely on mafia crosshits
- responds to trolls
- claims mid-term season is cutting down on his time in mafia, but he has nearly 100 posts in this thread, and he's just about always in here. He might as well stop responding to trolls and post something more useful.
- empyrean is more red than Ace, but Ace, if red, gives us more information
- tells us what a mafia would and would not do [this sets off an alarm]
Analysis
Everything he does strikes me as safe and calculated, so to speak. He's unwilling to take any risks. He lies about inactivity. He's playing like mafia. It's all there.
chezinu + Show Spoiler +
troll; I'm not going to waste my time
scamp + Show Spoiler +
- claims to be green.
- argues that medics RC'ing at any point is a bad move
Analysis
Green
Zona + Show Spoiler +
- town has less impact on the game than mafia.
- game is imbalanced against the town
- town should point out mafia for the other family to kill at night (but concedes that this can be bad because it might result in a superior mafia family)
- defends accusations by saying that being passive this game is the best way to play it from the town's point of view
Comments
Start playing. Passivity doesn't really help the town much either. Being active always helps, even in this format.
L + Show Spoiler +
- claims clues blatantly point towards Ace
- clues are going to be easy in this game because of the set-up
- constantly reminds people not to make empty posts because it will discourage others from reading the thread.
- implores that those who do not agree with how he interpretted the clues to post. BC heeds this post. L responds logically to BC's post.
- claims empyrean was apathetic [Note: I think he meant indifferent, and not apathetic.]
- accuses four people of being in mafia clue-wise "nemy, madnessman, mystlord, phrubaz"
- going to post in twelve hours explaining how he reached that conclusion
Analysis
Seems town-sided, but one cannot overlook how royally he screwed up on the clues first day. He was still willing to listen to and respond to others' interpretation of them though.
laaan + Show Spoiler +- potential clue fits: 789, ace, malongo, amber[light], mystlord - spams the thread with "chezinu makes me giggle"s key post: On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR PLATFORMI am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATESAll of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Show nested quote +2/14 16:21
logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.
now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess. Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSESome may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATEIf elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANSTo kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;drYou shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. Everything else is pretty much useless Analysis I'm not sure what to think of him. He doesn't seem to be pro-town at all times and is just reiterating everything that's already been said, but then he comes out with that. It's possible he's green, and it's possible he's red. I'm tired. I'll continue this in a later post.
I'll do you.
LucasWoJ: extremely helpful to the town, gathers information, tries to look at things objectively and would rather focus on voting based upon a mixture of behavioral analysis and the clues. seems very level-headed. if he's red-aligned, he is one of the better players not being mentioned as being a good player. my analysis is that he's too helpful to the town to not be town-aligned, and is probably green.
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On February 18 2010 03:35 citi.zen wrote:Time to turn up the heat. In this post I am calling our Vivi57. The clue link I explained above: a bunch of superstitious savages with spears, leaving behind a message that sacrifices to the gods should be made. Time for posting behavior: Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 15:55 Vivi57 wrote:
ok, I've been (slowly) raeding through the thread and it keeps growing faster than I'm reading.
One thing I've realized is that clues are going to be MUCH more important than in other games and behavioral analysis much less useful. Behavioral analysis is based on the idea that townies will spend their time looking for mafia and that mafia will attempt to fake that, but will not actually be looking. In this game, that doesn't work at all because *everyone* is hunting mafia whether they're mafia or townie. Got that? Clues are MUCH more important in this game. Now lets see what he tells us in his first and only long post, where he argues Ace and BC are heads of the two mafia families: Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 17:14 Vivi57 wrote:ok, ver sent me this pm and I was going to send it back to him, but since I haven't done much yet, I'll just post it here tl;dr: Ace and bc are in the same family with redtooth as a likely third memberok, this whole post is going to be what I think as I read the every post of bc and ace's. Honestly, the reason I haven't been posting much is because the thread's been growing way too fast and I've been playing more poker and putting less time into mafia. I completely agree with bc as head of one mafia family. You pointed out his mayor post, but he also mentioned that he won't touch clues till day 3 under the premise that there's no point, just what he did in the game where he was traitor. bc is also defending ace so it might be possible they're on the same team. then he says he can't make a plan because it'll be hard to come up with, easy to stop. either he's a lazy townie or mafia. yep, even more mafia. He basically uses the defense that his team wouldn't give him gf in the exact position where he *would* want to get gf. the next bit of posts are pretty bad, he's putting a ton of effort into stopping discussion and basically telling everyone that their methods are bad rather than actually trying to hunt mafia. more DONT LYNCH ACE! ...but emp is a good lead! the he posts some forced day1 clue analysis after he spends a *long* time saying that analysis should be worthless and ignored. Combine that with something he said in msn to me: "I wish I was special  " and you have a great case against bc. now on to ace. Alot of the stuff ace said, I just kinda skimmed over the first time and ignored because all he does is scream. Let's see what a more careful analysis has to offer: starts off with a couple OMGUS posts, standard. Then he spends a bunch of time saying how clues are useless. I agree, behavior *is* more important than clues. Although, Ace is putting so much effort into convincing everyone that the clues don't point that it definitely makes him suspect. His strategy seems to be "lynch anyone who really wants to kill me" which while amusing doesn't do much of anything. Then he goes off about one of his million policy lynches, this time "lynch anyone who starts a wagon that ends in townie blood." Ace makes a subtle defense of redtooth, the only player besides himself he's defended the entire game. CLAIMS GREEN even after that, ace and redtooth keep mentioning each other. There's a very interesting dynamic going on between them and especially when you see redtooth post "Ace and I can't both be mafia." At this point, I'm fairly sure ace and redtooth are in the same mafia family. then we have some voteswitching so that ace can have the election exactly the way he wants, oddly enough putting L into pardoner. I haven't seen ace do anything useful on day1 other than telling everyone they suck and repeating that he's town over and over. I do agree with the theory that ace and redtooth are mafia together, but I'm not the least bit convinced that bc and ace would be heads of opposite mafia families. I'm sure bc is head of one, but ace and bc are either in the same family or ace actually *is* innocent. The most interesting here is that bc spent a while defending ace, but ace didn't even mention bc ONCE. I'm going to go with bc and ace in the same family with redtooth as a likely third member. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: So it doesn't take a genius to see that you are hiding something this game. Now just what is it? Currently my analysis of the situation looks like the mafia have BC and Ace as the head of two families. What do you think of this? I'm expecting a certain type of response from you. Don't let me down  Wait a minute: is it clues or behavior we should be looking at? I forget, that piece of breathtaking analysis left my head in a fog. Then we get this nice pearl of advice for the town: Show nested quote +On February 17 2010 06:41 Vivi57 wrote:
noone would kill a confirmed medic, claiming medic is just a risk because the other family might think the "medic" is mafia trying to claim.
A legit medic wouldn't be hit because from the mafia's point of view, any hit that's not on the other family is a miss. Please explain good Sir.
amazing how much more useful than amazingly useless still doesn't make them better than behavior
and you'd be stupid not to realize that clues *and* behavior combine to give a full analysis.
With medics, any hit where the mafia doesn't hit the other mafia is a miss. As long as mafia kp is atleast 2, they don't *want* to hit medics, they want to hit the other mafia family. The ideal game for mafia would be 3 hits each night on the other family combined with a lynch for a night3 victory.
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Just to say here that i think Faronel is mafia. Voting him now because he has been useless and defensive in his posting as other guys have noted.
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 18 2010 07:32 L wrote:Ok, lol. I am back. First off: I may have missed the mark on Empyrean and Ace, but the amount of people sitting back when I asked everyone to brainstorm was incredible. I think I had a grand total of 1 person make a coherent argument against Ace, which I accepted as substantially convincing, and cobbler argued against Emp. But to say that I accused Ace, Emp and 789 and only them on the basis of clues is flat out false. I admitted that Cynan might have been a good catch, and that Mystlord was a very good target. I also requested that Ver put bill murray on the do not protect list. There are others, but frankly the omission of Mystlord from the list of people I thought were guilty via clues is hilarious. I even had Ver add him to the list of people I suspected. If I'm guilty of being wrong, so be it, but don't assume all my targets flipped green, because more than half of the people i fingered day 1 are still alive. On to today: Why did I accuse the people I did 12 hours ago? Lol because they're fishy as fuck. But lets talk about that after some preliminaries: 1) It seems readily apparent to some that there are two 'group's in the set of clues: the ridge team and the other team. I buy this theory for the simple fact that the ridge team has showed up twice and is identified as a discernible group. So i'm going to call them: Ridge Team and Meadow Team. Meadow Team is a shitty name, but frankly it kinda makes both teams feel like Pokemon editions, and that's cool in my book. 2) Incog is using a lot of herrings. Intentional, even. If that's the case, he's basing personas out of a consistent combination of profiles. A picture, a quote, whatever. If that's the case, then he's going to be strict regarding how he describes multiple element clues and potentially more liberal with single source clues. The Scythe/Spear difference should emblemize that. Okay, with that in mind: Lets look at der clues. 1) There are Six mafia members described. The bomb was the blocked on Ver or not set in the first place. The clues also seem to indicate that cobbler was hit once per team. There are a few conclusions which flow from this, most of them which are bad for us with respect to analysing why Ver was bombed if he was bombed. Prior cluesets normally involve the hatter blowing people the fuck up during the clues which didn't happen here, so my prediction about the bomb being blocked seems accurate and consistent. Previous clues: Moonlight rider's probably Cynan Emp's blue light killer might be 789 or amber. I didn't originally think that amber came in a blue form, but wikipedia told me otherwise. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AmberIf that's the case, I hate incog. Today's clues: The final paragraph, in my mind, points to nemY: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=nemYThe fact that things were discovered the next day fits his profile quote, while the uproar fits his picture perfectly. The connection between someone falling and a message inciting the town to rage also fits. I really want to see other possibilities for this one, because I think this is a really elegant clue. White floating thing is either Phrujbaz or OhN. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=PhrujbazPretty self evident. The fact that its a meadow and the fact that the guy gets a runny nose point me heavily towards the dandelion seeds over the sakura. Then again, I don't live in an area with cherry trees so I don't know how they work outside of anime. The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessmanBasically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. And last but not least: Mystlord. THERES A GUY ON A ROOF AGAIN, WHO'S STANDING IN FRONT OF A LIGHT, HE KILLS SOME PEOPLE. DERP.
Hm I didn't consider that BC might have been hit twice. That would actually make sense, and it kind of kills my theory on religion + sphinx. Oh well. Regardless, if BC was actually double hit, it means that BC planted a bomb on Ver, which places a bit more suspicion on Ver. However, we have established that his play is actually not all that inconsistent, so the double hit doesn't mean all too much.
That said, I'll finally get around to profiles when I get home today (at school atm), so I'll just defend myself for now. I will assume that this is the story you're talking about:
The third Mafioso headed toward the construction site, where workers had been trying to rush build a new town jail. From the building above, the third Mafioso noticed his target working in the guard tower across the jail courtyard. Smiling to himself, he snuck around to near the tower and took control of a crane that he had hidden nearby. Only a few of the workers noticed the large shadow blocking out the bright artificial light necessary to light the construction site. A few yelled at the workers to get out of the way, and fortunately everyone did but one. BloodyC0bbler did not notice as a miniature version of a stone sphinx came crashing down on the site, demolishing the guard tower and spraying blue blood everywhere.
For comparison, I'll bring up the Day 1 story again:
Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.
I'll do my best to point out WHY these two stories are almost certainly referring to two different people. In the day 2 story, I see no reference to the crazed psychopathic noises referred to in day 1. There is no indication of the crazed laughing either. Instead, the killer is calm and collected. This is a fundamental difference between the Day 1 and Day 2 killers. If there is always one undercurrent that runs throughout the clues, it's that their personality, once established, remains the same. Since Day 1 killer has a clearly different personality than Day 2 killer, I'd argue that they're two completely different people.
At most, you can hook me off of the Day 1 clues (although there is no mention of light being blocked - merely a rooftop killer, which is a rather weak persona IMO. Psychopathic and loves to kill? Now that's a persona.) At the very least, do not lynch me based off of the connection between the Day 1 and Day 2 clues, or I'll lose my faith in humanity and logic .
Actually, I was going to post something completely separate here regarding who I think is a good Day 2 lynch, but it'll break continuity and I feel that people's eyes will just glaze over at length, so I'll save it for later after some posts have been made.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i47.tinypic.com/hx9rb9.png)
