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On February 18 2010 12:04 Ver wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 11:51 L wrote:
So you put yourself on the medic protection list as a Vet and then claimed someone protected you when you should have been told you lost a night life.
So you're trying to pull medic prots and then lied to the town AND to someone else in PMs?
And so claiming this this far into the day is supposed to make you seem less fraudulent because you wanted, explicitly stated, the heat on you to die down?
Rofl. I never claimed someone protected me. I simply said I was hit. It doesn't matter whether I appear less fradulent or not, I never have fears of looking suspicious when I am innocent (remember caller's mafiya? we had this exact same exchange). If nobody believes me then yeah this failed and I'll just keep doing analysis the best I can. But really in this scenario unless someone calls me a liar those actions you listed are irrelevant and can simply be reduced to bad play because I am basically a confirmed innocent at this point unless someone calls me a liar about taking a hit or protting me.
You're 100% right about you saying you took a hit and not having been protted. My bad.
Also the timing of your claim does enhance your credibility. Neither are factors I fully thought through. Need to rethink this situation out from both sides.
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Oh I've been linked by quite a few people how novel! I'm not Mafia so I'll save u guys some time there.
and lucas when I said I'd be active i think you might have misinterpreted what the word active means. It means i will look over the thread on a regular basis, try to contribute if i can and generally keep up to date with everything that is going on.
It does not mean i will be able to put my life on hold lock myself in my room and spam my keyboard on the hour every hour..
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There were a possible 7 hits last night, 3 from each family and 1 bomb.
Maybe I am missing something, but doesn't the mad hatter have 2 bombs?
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On February 18 2010 13:00 citi.zen wrote:Maybe I am missing something, but doesn't the mad hatter have 2 bombs?
plants one per night. maximum bombs possible on n1; 1
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On February 18 2010 12:45 XeliN wrote:
Oh I've been linked by quite a few people how novel! I'm not Mafia so I'll save u guys some time there.
and lucas when I said I'd be active i think you might have misinterpreted what the word active means. It means i will look over the thread on a regular basis, try to contribute if i can and generally keep up to date with everything that is going on.
It does not mean i will be able to put my life on hold lock myself in my room and spam my keyboard on the hour every hour..
A most noble and valiant defense, if only it was really this simple 
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btw L i like your clue linking to me, but unless you can somehow link "We invite you to make a holy pilgrimage to the town square today to offer a human sacrifice to the gods. That is all." to me then I feel like you're digging for nothing
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On February 18 2010 13:12 nemY wrote:btw L i like your clue linking to me, but unless you can somehow link "We invite you to make a holy pilgrimage to the town square today to offer a human sacrifice to the gods. That is all." to me then I feel like you're digging for nothing
Oh, so if I wanted to link a clue to you I'd need to have someone say something like "We invite you to.... IM THE DETECTIVE" prior to an uproar?
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Well to be honest what "good" defence am i meant to provide for the accusations. My profile pic could certainly be linked in the way that some have although I would say it is not a strong association I figured putting alot of effort into defending the indefensible would be pointless.
I guess better things to provide a defence of would be both 1) my inactivity compare to most others and 2) as someone pointed out providing nothing helpful to the town in the few posts I have made
well as to 1) i have already given my "defence" whether its true or not is irrelevant, its my story and i'm sticking to it.
2) Currently this game seems like one big cluster fuck to me, (not the players or the way its run or anything just in its sheer size and more complex strategy) I want to try to participate but currently i feel slightly out of depth by this game. I'll make a renewed effort to not post anything unless i can clearly see that it is both valuable and not repetition i guess.
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I do think it likely BC used his bomb, so Ver should be quite safe.
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I went over XeliN's profile and I honestly did not link him to any clues...
perspective is so relative.
It's not like XeliN or Nemy or Mystlord were the only people have have had speculation thrown onto them. Nearly everyone in this thread has. Who can you trust, honestly? Mafia have 9 friends they can trust, 10 enemies to kill, and had 31 people breathing down their necks... I personally have noone to trust.
With Ver and Redtooth claiming to be town aligned, they have effectively thrown the heat off of themselves. Perhaps I should take a lesson from their book and claim to be a Mad Hatter, a Medic, or a Veteran. I'm not going to do this, though, because I am not a liar.
I am green, and I can say that for the very reason that I won't say I'm blue. It's the same reason that if I was red I wouldn't be saying any of this at all, and would be more like "show me your evidence against me".
that being said, unless I am the miller, there is no possible way anyone will be able to come forward and bring evidence up against me of being anything but green.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Okay hopefully this post won't get buried. I've taken the time to analyze the votes for the election and drawn some interesting conclusions from them. I've organized the times here starting from about three hours (5:57 tl time) before redtooth claimed medic. Let's take a look
Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results
5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes
5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes
7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:46------------Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:53------------d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:58----------BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes
Ignoring the people we already know are green (as I have conveniently labeled above), the people we should be taking note of are: meeple, tredmasta, Nikoner.
Meeple votes for redtooth after the roleclaim, putting redtooth back on par with Ver.
tredmasta(who the fuck...?) votes for Ver after meeple, putting Ver back on top by one vote.
Nikoner takes his vote off of Ver, putting redtooth in the lead.
The thing to take note of, is that redtooth is only safely in office because of a large chunk of greens. If he was mafia, I'm sure there would've been a bigger mass of votes for him (would you be comfortable being up by one vote when the lead has changed three times?). This applies similarly for Ver as well; if he was mafia, he should be in office (I am, however, ignoring here the possibility that the two of them are both mafia; but this scenario seems highly unlikely).
Also, the voting before redtooth claims is important as well. The few hours before he claims shows that he's in the lead with a few votes, and that lead slowly diminishes. A good point is that the voting between him and Ver is tied for nearly an hour (right until redtooth claims medic). If redtooth was mafia, why not just have some of his mafia buddies throw a few more votes on to put him in the lead? Why bother going through the move of fake claiming medic? It's not like votes for Ver just piled on at once; redtooth had time to think about what to do.
Zona and infundibulum were the only people who had not actually voted up until they voted here.
Nikoner's vote is probably the most interesting. At a very crucial time, he takes it off of Ver and abstains. What's the motivation for this move? Obviously, he doesn't want Ver to be in office so he takes it off of Ver. Yet he doesn't put it on redtooth (which might have guarenteed Ver out of office), but perhaps he was shaky about the roleclaim (perfectly understandable). However taking a vote off of Ver helps redtooth, but at the same time he did not choose to help redtooth. Probably he thinks perhaps both these people should not be in office. Well then might as well put the vote on L...but he didn't. His vote has no motivation, what's the point of abstaining at the very critical point in the election? Perhaps he thought it'd be safer to be on the abstain list then voting for someone. I honestly do not see how Nikoner can possibly be mafia, he seems like a scared townsperson.
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6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes
7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes Very interesting how there are 3 vote 'bursts' in which 2 people vote one after another.
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I'm going to vote to lynch Faronel for not having a profile. I feel like this is nearly against the game rules as it was asked for us to have that previously. It is kind of irritating to see that when you're looking for clues in people's profiles.
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Unfortunately not having a profile almost guarantees he is not Mafia, one of the things I have seen stated is that when the hosts are choosing it will only be from people with a profile to make clues from.
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he has also edited a post.... idk, mystlord seems like a stretch to me, but it's 50/50 on anyone in my eyes (closer to 45%, but still). My point is that take half the people getting votes, and they're probably red. one or two blues, perhaps, and the rest green.
Lets see here, I'm not claiming anything by this, but lets let me paint people color just for fun:
Ver claimed blue
Bill Murray I know I'm green.
Mystlord
DoctorHelvetica he was a lot nicer as a red LOL
zona
nemy
Faronel
XeliN
Nikoner
i think that would be proportionate mathematically.
i'm not claiming ANYTHING by this post, just trying to get you all to think about how proportionate i feel the green to blue to red ratio will be. i do not think that zona or nikoner is red, for instance.
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So I have an incredibly short attention span, and with the way this game has gone, I can feel my interest slipping -_-;; It seems to me as though both mafia teams are discussing behind closed doors, and townies are not doing anything. I also have a feeling I'm going to get hit tonight, so I figure I may as well take a gamble and write this.
Basically, I would like to propose to townies that we band together, unite, and vote in unison to lynch L. The basis behind my proposal is mainly behavioral related, with some clue analysis thrown in. These are my reasons:
1. The chances that a mayor/pardoner is a member of the mafia are extremely, extremely high. Here's what I wrote in a PM to DoctorHelvetica the day before yesterday:
i wrote a post on pg 65 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913¤tpage=65), but to elaborate on it, the more i think about it, the more certain i am that redtooth and L must be mafia. mayor+pardonner are both incredibly important positions and gives whichever team (whether it be mafia a, mafa b, or town) who "owns" those positions an enormous advantage. the end tally was so low that a mafia team could EASILY get their candidate elected. there's no way a mafia team would let such a big position just slip from their fingers. itd be sheer stupidity.
it is a game of 30v10v10, but the mafia know who their team mates are, whereas townies dont. and with so many people abstaining, it was probably fairly easy for them to have their candidate elected.
you yourself were mafia last game, and ended up being elected mayor, were u not? surely u must know how much of an advantage each mafia team has over the town when it comes to elections
what perplexes me is that redtooth voted for L. is it possible that they are on the same team? could it even be possible for a non-mafia to get elected?
what are your thoughts on all of this.
ill admit im wary of sending u this, esp. since i just realized u kept switching votes and ultimately u voted for L. i did too though..so meh. i might just post my thoughts on the main thread..it's so dominated by spam tho im almost discouraged against doing so lol.
After looking at Foolishness' post though, maybe I am giving the mafia too much credit. Maybe there's a chance they played it too risky/were too disorganized and let a mayoral position slip from their grasp. But I think the chances of that are quite slim. A single team could singlehandedly have won the mayoral/pardoner positions given how many people abstained. (This doesn't mean that we should discredit the people who abstained/voted for other candidates though, obviously. As DoctorHelvetica was so kind to share: ) Yes. When I was mafia our strategy was to throw in just enough votes for me to be mayor. When it was clear I was going to win, I instructed several mafia voters to change their vote to a competing non-mafia candidate. As we can also see from Foolishness' post, a mayoral candidate who played it pretty "safely" and didn't rely on a last minute influx of votes was L. But many of the last influx of votes were green townies, and therefore I think there's a better chance L is mafia over redtooth. I am well aware that I was one of the foolish people who voted L for mayor, but the reasons why I did so I see now in retrospect are quite foolish. I voted for him because (a) he presented himself as a leader with a strong, decisive voice at a time when everyone was confused and unsure (b) i didn't think his profile had enough substance for incognito to write clues on.
with regards to (a), I see how stupid it was of me to jump on the L bandwagon. First off, the fact that he presented himself as a decisive leader is something any mafia member would do. To hold influence over the town is such an invaluable asset in this game.
with regards to (b), this leads me to point #2.
2. At first, I thought that it was impossible for L to be mafia because his profile has absolutely no substance whatsoever. I believe he wasn't able to upload a picture until AFTER the game started, and his quote is "YOU JUST DON'T KNOW." this isn't a reference to anything as far as i can tell, and is SO little for incognito to base claims on. i now see that i was quite stupid to think that way. while his profile/picture contains absolutely nothing for incog to base his clues off, his very name "L" does fit the clues. L is of course in reference to the detective character in death note. let's read this part of day 2's passage:
+ Show Spoiler +When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light.
what characterizes L (the detective) in death note? he is extremely thoughtful, clever, observant. the way the mafiaso acts in this passage just REEKS of someone with L's character. he plots/plans/observes/is clever and thoughtful. he doesn't just jump into action but is very sly and clever about what he does. he cautiously checks the room first. he checks the papers to see if they're important. he slyly tiptoes up the stairs so he doesn't alert his victim. he cleverly notices fresh tracks and follows them. with regard to the whole darkness and light thing, L's enemy is Light Yagami. perhaps the whole L hides in darkness because his enemy is Light could account for this part of the clue.
3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote:
My analysis:
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Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet
followed by L who goes:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote:
I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy
madnessman
mystlord
phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
and then later his explanation:
+ Show Spoiler +The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessmanBasically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though.
this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain.
are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia.
SO i hope i have made a good enough argument that all you townies/other mafia team will consider lynching L tonight. of course i am not absolutely certain that i am correct in my accusation, but i've thought this through and i dont think we have much to lose. i understand that u all may be wary to lynch L; after all, L is pardoner and has the ability to pardon lynches. but what use is a pardoner to us who can't figure out the difference between mafia and townsman? as i've shown in #3, we have reason to believe that either his analysis is extremely flawed or that his accusations are heavily biased. there's no point in having a pardoner who MOST LIKELY will end up pardoning people who are mafia members. if he is a mafia member, he will pardon his fellow mafia members. if he isn't a mafia member, he will probably pompously and incorrectly asses the situation, and end up pardoning a mafia member as well. furthermore, the way this game is going down, it's now 25v10v10. we townspeople are STILL disorganized and disunited vs. two coherent, organized teams, and to add insult to injury, we're being picked off like flies. at this point, there's no point in our going after "small fish." we need to hit them now, and where it would hurt. like i said, i could be wrong that L is mafia, but i hope my reasoning has shown that it is worth it to make this gamble. in terms of calculated risks and potential gain, it is very very worth it.
4. on a final note, consider this: L claims he is such an amazing clue analyzer, but currently he is down 0/2. i dont base this as a reason to lynch him, as everyone makes mistakes. HOWEVER, if u scroll through the thread, u will see that he pushed for ace and emp to be killed/lynched both with extreme conviction. i myself am pushing for L to be lynch, but i acknowledge that there is room for error. L does no such thing. any towns person would hesitate and not be so ready to kill off another person, as there's a high chance (3/5th chance) that said person is a fellow townie, and killing off a fellow townie is not beneficial to the rest of the town. on the other hand, a mafia member would not be so hesitant because either way, as long as the person they accuse/push for ISNT on their team, he's either on the rivalry mafia team or a townie, both of which are readily dispensable for him. while i construct my argument on why it is worth it to take this RISK, L doesn't even seem to care about the consequences for the town if he is wrong.
tl;dr: just read the bold points. we have strong reason to believe L is mafia.
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On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote:+ Show Spoiler +3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote:
My analysis:
...
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote:
I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy
madnessman
mystlord
phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler +The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessmanBasically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia.
For the record, and I've said it before... that clue analysis is only a link, and there are tons of people that the bickering and stuff could point too but madnessman caught my eye so I threw it out there.
The clue could also refer to johnnyspazz... for both the spazz reference and his profile containing sonic/dr.robotnik as two enemies.
Nikoner has graffiti in his profile picture...
I'm not pointing fingers and its not totally without a basis... although madness doesn't really fit the description of that scene. I would be happier with some hillbilly link or the like.
As for L, I have no idea... he could have seen the same link independently, or perhaps the power of suggestion since he had seen the name... or perhaps he's a mafia bandwagoning.
I don't think anyone seriously suspects you on that basis, especially since I agree your posting is in no way suspicious. Anything clue related has to be taken with your eyes open to other things.
Now, about the idea that L is red... I don't think that clues are related to personality, but rather solely the profile and there is nothing about his profile that ties him to that killer, but that doesn't mean they don't exist, since we haven't got near enough clues to have every mafia have one pointing to them. L's calmness during the election might indeed be a tell, since he knew that he was always going to win and thats something I never thought of. I don't have your conviction about the matter, but I could beleive that L is mafia.
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Ohh... ok in deathnote... ok then sorry I retract what I said about nothing in his profile pointing to L
Thats a good link actually... the character in that clue is surprisingly detective-like
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote:So I have an incredibly short attention span, and with the way this game has gone, I can feel my interest slipping -_-;; It seems to me as though both mafia teams are discussing behind closed doors, and townies are not doing anything. I also have a feeling I'm going to get hit tonight, so I figure I may as well take a gamble and write this. Basically, I would like to propose to townies that we band together, unite, and vote in unison to lynch L. The basis behind my proposal is mainly behavioral related, with some clue analysis thrown in. These are my reasons: 1. The chances that a mayor/pardoner is a member of the mafia are extremely, extremely high. Here's what I wrote in a PM to DoctorHelvetica the day before yesterday: Show nested quote +i wrote a post on pg 65 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913¤tpage=65), but to elaborate on it, the more i think about it, the more certain i am that redtooth and L must be mafia. mayor+pardonner are both incredibly important positions and gives whichever team (whether it be mafia a, mafa b, or town) who "owns" those positions an enormous advantage. the end tally was so low that a mafia team could EASILY get their candidate elected. there's no way a mafia team would let such a big position just slip from their fingers. itd be sheer stupidity.
it is a game of 30v10v10, but the mafia know who their team mates are, whereas townies dont. and with so many people abstaining, it was probably fairly easy for them to have their candidate elected.
you yourself were mafia last game, and ended up being elected mayor, were u not? surely u must know how much of an advantage each mafia team has over the town when it comes to elections
what perplexes me is that redtooth voted for L. is it possible that they are on the same team? could it even be possible for a non-mafia to get elected?
what are your thoughts on all of this.
ill admit im wary of sending u this, esp. since i just realized u kept switching votes and ultimately u voted for L. i did too though..so meh. i might just post my thoughts on the main thread..it's so dominated by spam tho im almost discouraged against doing so lol.
After looking at Foolishness' post though, maybe I am giving the mafia too much credit. Maybe there's a chance they played it too risky/were too disorganized and let a mayoral position slip from their grasp. But I think the chances of that are quite slim. A single team could singlehandedly have won the mayoral/pardoner positions given how many people abstained. (This doesn't mean that we should discredit the people who abstained/voted for other candidates though, obviously. As DoctorHelvetica was so kind to share: ) Show nested quote +Yes. When I was mafia our strategy was to throw in just enough votes for me to be mayor. When it was clear I was going to win, I instructed several mafia voters to change their vote to a competing non-mafia candidate. As we can also see from Foolishness' post, a mayoral candidate who played it pretty "safely" and didn't rely on a last minute influx of votes was L. But many of the last influx of votes were green townies, and therefore I think there's a better chance L is mafia over redtooth. I am well aware that I was one of the foolish people who voted L for mayor, but the reasons why I did so I see now in retrospect are quite foolish. I voted for him because (a) he presented himself as a leader with a strong, decisive voice at a time when everyone was confused and unsure (b) i didn't think his profile had enough substance for incognito to write clues on. with regards to (a), I see how stupid it was of me to jump on the L bandwagon. First off, the fact that he presented himself as a decisive leader is something any mafia member would do. To hold influence over the town is such an invaluable asset in this game. with regards to (b), this leads me to point #2. 2. At first, I thought that it was impossible for L to be mafia because his profile has absolutely no substance whatsoever. I believe he wasn't able to upload a picture until AFTER the game started, and his quote is "YOU JUST DON'T KNOW." this isn't a reference to anything as far as i can tell, and is SO little for incognito to base claims on. i now see that i was quite stupid to think that way. while his profile/picture contains absolutely nothing for incog to base his clues off, his very name "L" does fit the clues. L is of course in reference to the detective character in death note. let's read this part of day 2's passage: + Show Spoiler +When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. what characterizes L (the detective) in death note? he is extremely thoughtful, clever, observant. the way the mafiaso acts in this passage just REEKS of someone with L's character. he plots/plans/observes/is clever and thoughtful. he doesn't just jump into action but is very sly and clever about what he does. he cautiously checks the room first. he checks the papers to see if they're important. he slyly tiptoes up the stairs so he doesn't alert his victim. he cleverly notices fresh tracks and follows them. with regard to the whole darkness and light thing, L's enemy is Light Yagami. perhaps the whole L hides in darkness because his enemy is Light could account for this part of the clue. 3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote:
My analysis:
...
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote:
I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy
madnessman
mystlord
phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler +The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessmanBasically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia. SO i hope i have made a good enough argument that all you townies/other mafia team will consider lynching L tonight. of course i am not absolutely certain that i am correct in my accusation, but i've thought this through and i dont think we have much to lose. i understand that u all may be wary to lynch L; after all, L is pardoner and has the ability to pardon lynches. but what use is a pardoner to us who can't figure out the difference between mafia and townsman? as i've shown in #3, we have reason to believe that either his analysis is extremely flawed or that his accusations are heavily biased. there's no point in having a pardoner who MOST LIKELY will end up pardoning people who are mafia members. if he is a mafia member, he will pardon his fellow mafia members. if he isn't a mafia member, he will probably pompously and incorrectly asses the situation, and end up pardoning a mafia member as well. furthermore, the way this game is going down, it's now 25v10v10. we townspeople are STILL disorganized and disunited vs. two coherent, organized teams, and to add insult to injury, we're being picked off like flies. at this point, there's no point in our going after "small fish." we need to hit them now, and where it would hurt. like i said, i could be wrong that L is mafia, but i hope my reasoning has shown that it is worth it to make this gamble. in terms of calculated risks and potential gain, it is very very worth it. 4. on a final note, consider this: L claims he is such an amazing clue analyzer, but currently he is down 0/2. i dont base this as a reason to lynch him, as everyone makes mistakes. HOWEVER, if u scroll through the thread, u will see that he pushed for ace and emp to be killed/lynched both with extreme conviction. i myself am pushing for L to be lynch, but i acknowledge that there is room for error. L does no such thing. any towns person would hesitate and not be so ready to kill off another person, as there's a high chance (3/5th chance) that said person is a fellow townie, and killing off a fellow townie is not beneficial to the rest of the town. on the other hand, a mafia member would not be so hesitant because either way, as long as the person they accuse/push for ISNT on their team, he's either on the rivalry mafia team or a townie, both of which are readily dispensable for him. while i construct my argument on why it is worth it to take this RISK, L doesn't even seem to care about the consequences for the town if he is wrong. tl;dr: just read the bold points. we have strong reason to believe L is mafia.
1. I didn't base the clue link I found to you on your name at all. Madness is so over-broad that it easily leads to red herrings. Any indication of violence in the slightest can be interpreted as madness: the guy who jumps through a wall? normal people dont' do that. the guy who drops a SPHINX on someone? he must be crazy. Etc. Given that i whittled the clue down to the unignorable qualities it had: we have a clue in which 2 men who are in an argument somehow act in some form of unison for no stated reason.
Read redtooth's link to old incog clues. You'll find one about a trio of killers which was based on a picture of 3 asian women. Incog uses the number of assailants as the only basis for the clue in that case, which made me look for profiles that were exemplified by 2 characters. In the current instance, the only people I can see linking to the clue are you and XeliN; you have the bird on bird action. He has the wimp and the massive guy. Both involve dualities, but yours is starker. Additionally, there's nothing in his profile that leads me to make a combination with the murder weapon or the spraypainting. Given that, you're still my favorite target for that clue.
2. Consider this; Mafia are the ones who pick their night hits and they avoided half of my day 1 predictions. If the rest of my predictions are false, then yeah, I'll be pretty ashamed. Generally speaking, however, I'm satisfied with my clue link to emp because frankly I still think it was a pretty good find despite being wrong; the only element of the angel killer that I didn't account for was the blue quality of the fire, which others were attributing to bloodycobbler; I said its possible but unlikely, if I recall correctly, and despite being wrong about Emp, I was right about that.
So from my day 1 clue suspicions, 2 have been wrong, 1 has been right, and there are another 2-3 that haven't been verified yet. If we lynch myst, we'll know whether or not I'm correct on another.Granted that these were predictions made on the basis of a single clueset, I think my analysis was decen (albeit clearly not perfect).
More importantly: consider this once more; Mafia pick who they hit, and someone hit Ace when Ace was probably going to be relatively weak in terms of reputation and ability to push things through. So why hit him? Were they threatened by his 'do nothing and sit around while insulting people' plan? Or did they kill him so that they could set up suspicions regarding his death? I'll leave it to you to see which players have been actively pursuing this course of action, because there are 2 notable ones.
3. Lol L isn't the type to slowly walk through a room. that would be raito. He's the type to sit on a chair and spin while eating cake or sit outside in the rain. + Show Spoiler +I initially suspected shoCkeyy for this clue on the basis that his quote was:
"Nothing in the world is more common than unsuccessful people with talent, leave the house before you find something worth staying in for. "
I didn't, however, like the volume of herrings; was he a tracker? Was his persona a person who is engaged with food (as per the house description? Is he the TL horse? Is the comment about dark and light referencing the fact that he's out at night? I really didn't have answers for these. This was one of the clue sets that I was hoping to revisit on days 3-4 if other connections came up.
I am, however, happy that someone took the time to accuse me, because that probably means that of the 6-7 people I pointed towards today, 3+ of them are on the same team and are shitting bricks. I wouldn't see the motivation to write up a huge offensive post unless there was some if a single person had been cluefucked given the amount of leeway before losing kp. Additionally, the fact that you essentially admit that you're mouthing for DrH makes me think that you're probably innocent and that he's on their team.
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EPT
