On February 18 2010 00:30 789 wrote: Also I threw this possibility out before. Is it possible that zato was killed by a bomb? This possibility wouldn't exclude BC getting double hit and ver (if he's telling the truth) absorbing a hit from last night. The hits would still add up to 6. He was killed when he opened his door ... by a bunch of metal sharp objects. Now I don't know how much you guys know about homemade bombs ... but if you want to increase their killing power you pack them with small metal objects to act as shrapnel. This could also explain the hole in the wall. There was a mafia member talked about in the paragraph ... but nothing of really important detail. He knocked on the door but was nowhere to be seen when zato opened it and was killed. I think its either possible that the mafia member used a bomb to kill him (for a clue) or it was a bomb of BC (from madhatter ability).
It definitely sounds like shrapnel or glass or something like that. But in previous games when someone has died form a mad hatter bomb, the day post says something at the end like "and mysteriously, on the other side of town, Infundibulum exploded in a shower of blood while he was sleeping!." So I'm pretty sure this is a mafia killer. We don't even know if BC placed a bomb last night anyway, though i wouldn't be too surprised if had placed it on Ver due to their disagreements in the thread.
Not entirely true. Based upon discussion from Day 1 it was apparent that BC actually believed that Ver had the best platform for candidacy, and also believed that if Ver lynched BC, that it would look really bad.
And besides if he had placed a bomb on Ver then Ver would be dead, which he's not.
BC also said he thought Ver was playing very out of character with his phishing PMs and what not (even if it's not truly out of character, he seemed to think it was).
Ver also says he was protected last night. Based on the structure of the Day post the most sensible sequence of actions must have been that both mafia teams hit BC, and BC had a bomb on Ver who was protected. The only reason i think this is because of the last passage where they find the spike in BC's body, which makes it sound like he was killed by two different things. On the other hand, when two factions target the same person (e.g. a vigi and the mafia), usually whoever sent in the kill first gets written into the day post and the other faction is left our entirely. So this would be a new strategy from Incog, where both parties were included in the writeup.
The other possibility is that Ver was hit and protected, and BC placed no bomb. However, we have all been over this before so there shouldn't be any need to explain it.
Night two clue analysis. (no behavioral stuff in this post)
A fair number of clues seem to be repeats from the prior night.
- spraying gasoline & lighting the victim on fire (deramflower & Ace). Other clues to this guy: mutters to himself that it would be fun to terrorizing people in daytime.
- killer keeps going through walls (Quatol and Zato-1). Other clues: cackled loudly on day 1, perhaps knocked down and impaled Zato with sharp objects.
- rooftop killer who keeps smiling to himself (BloodyCobbler, Incognito). Other clues to this guy: crazed psychopathic noises, hyena-like laughter, ripped Incognito's head off, dropped miniature sphinx on BC.
- there is now a mysterious airborne-particles killer.
- spear killer (BloodyCobbler, horseman who charged at dreamflower).
- Note that BC was a double hit. He did not die from the sphinx, but a spear to the gut with the accompanying inscription suggesting sacrifices to the gods. I had not noticed this in the "autopsy report" on my first read.Ver's comment seems relevant when we do the math here:
i was certainly wrong about BC. The hitlists show that the mafia also had no idea either. There are likely 2 missing hits, 1 of them accounted for by me. So either a bomb/hit overlapped or someone else got saved.
Profiles that fit night 2 clues, roughly in order of sign-up list:
Vivi57: spear killer could be one of the savages form his profile pic. Spear had inscription calling for human sacrifice to the gods, fits with the reference to 1000x curses.
XeliN: guy going through walls - profile pic of a green guy who could be interpreted as breaking through walls.
QuickStriker: chess piece - miniature sphinx?
Nikkoner: profile pic provides a grafiti connection to d3_crescentia's killer.
meeple: possible rooftop killer link with profile picture.
ohN: Fulgrim walking through meadows, particles falling through the air, allergies.
Mystlord: obviously fits the fire clue. Not sure about the terrorizing day/night, perhaps someone knows more about the cartoon in his picture.
Phrujbaz: same connection as ohN.
I am not pointing any fingers in this particular post, these are just pretty cut and dry clue links I see. Some are right, some are wrong. Caveat emptor.
Time to turn up the heat. In this post I am calling our Vivi57.
The clue link I explained above: a bunch of superstitious savages with spears, leaving behind a message that sacrifices to the gods should be made.
Time for posting behavior:
On February 15 2010 15:55 Vivi57 wrote: ok, I've been (slowly) raeding through the thread and it keeps growing faster than I'm reading.
One thing I've realized is that clues are going to be MUCH more important than in other games and behavioral analysis much less useful. Behavioral analysis is based on the idea that townies will spend their time looking for mafia and that mafia will attempt to fake that, but will not actually be looking. In this game, that doesn't work at all because *everyone* is hunting mafia whether they're mafia or townie.
Got that? Clues are MUCH more important in this game. Now lets see what he tells us in his first and only long post, where he argues Ace and BC are heads of the two mafia families:
On February 16 2010 17:14 Vivi57 wrote: ok, ver sent me this pm and I was going to send it back to him, but since I haven't done much yet, I'll just post it here
tl;dr: Ace and bc are in the same family with redtooth as a likely third member
ok, this whole post is going to be what I think as I read the every post of bc and ace's. Honestly, the reason I haven't been posting much is because the thread's been growing way too fast and I've been playing more poker and putting less time into mafia.
I completely agree with bc as head of one mafia family. You pointed out his mayor post, but he also mentioned that he won't touch clues till day 3 under the premise that there's no point, just what he did in the game where he was traitor.
bc is also defending ace so it might be possible they're on the same team. then he says he can't make a plan because it'll be hard to come up with, easy to stop. either he's a lazy townie or mafia.
yep, even more mafia. He basically uses the defense that his team wouldn't give him gf in the exact position where he *would* want to get gf.
the next bit of posts are pretty bad, he's putting a ton of effort into stopping discussion and basically telling everyone that their methods are bad rather than actually trying to hunt mafia.
more DONT LYNCH ACE! ...but emp is a good lead!
the he posts some forced day1 clue analysis after he spends a *long* time saying that analysis should be worthless and ignored.
Combine that with something he said in msn to me: "I wish I was special " and you have a great case against bc.
now on to ace. Alot of the stuff ace said, I just kinda skimmed over the first time and ignored because all he does is scream. Let's see what a more careful analysis has to offer:
starts off with a couple OMGUS posts, standard. Then he spends a bunch of time saying how clues are useless. I agree, behavior *is* more important than clues.
Although, Ace is putting so much effort into convincing everyone that the clues don't point that it definitely makes him suspect.
His strategy seems to be "lynch anyone who really wants to kill me" which while amusing doesn't do much of anything. Then he goes off about one of his million policy lynches, this time "lynch anyone who starts a wagon that ends in townie blood."
Ace makes a subtle defense of redtooth, the only player besides himself he's defended the entire game.
CLAIMS GREEN
even after that, ace and redtooth keep mentioning each other. There's a very interesting dynamic going on between them and especially when you see redtooth post "Ace and I can't both be mafia." At this point, I'm fairly sure ace and redtooth are in the same mafia family.
then we have some voteswitching so that ace can have the election exactly the way he wants, oddly enough putting L into pardoner.
I haven't seen ace do anything useful on day1 other than telling everyone they suck and repeating that he's town over and over.
I do agree with the theory that ace and redtooth are mafia together, but I'm not the least bit convinced that bc and ace would be heads of opposite mafia families. I'm sure bc is head of one, but ace and bc are either in the same family or ace actually *is* innocent.
The most interesting here is that bc spent a while defending ace, but ace didn't even mention bc ONCE. I'm going to go with bc and ace in the same family with redtooth as a likely third member.
----------------------------------------- Original Message: So it doesn't take a genius to see that you are hiding something this game. Now just what is it?
Currently my analysis of the situation looks like the mafia have BC and Ace as the head of two families. What do you think of this?
I'm expecting a certain type of response from you. Don't let me down
Wait a minute: is it clues or behavior we should be looking at? I forget, that piece of breathtaking analysis left my head in a fog.
Then we get this nice pearl of advice for the town:
On February 17 2010 06:41 Vivi57 wrote: noone would kill a confirmed medic, claiming medic is just a risk because the other family might think the "medic" is mafia trying to claim.
A legit medic wouldn't be hit because from the mafia's point of view, any hit that's not on the other family is a miss.
Seem pretty similar in my opinion. Xelin's big green guy seems like he could do some damage, like cause big holes, or, (same clue set) jump off roofs, and rip people's heads off....
Not to mention Xelin hasn't said much, not that I have either, but I been a little busy, plus I wanted to wait til day 2...
On February 17 2010 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am.
On February 17 2010 03:07 Phrujbaz wrote: Ver PMed me but to be honest it seemed like a good town player hunting an inactive rather than anything out of the ordinary. I have him pegged as "good player" because of it, I wouldn't make the link to "Mafia".
Maybe you haven't played enough. But Ver does not like playing mafia in Pm's typically, nor do I. Just showerd, so I will go compare his posting to previous games, but he is playing very as per his normal play.
The person replying to this is LucaWoJ, a while after it was posted and in his first "real" attempt to contribute:
On February 17 2010 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am.
Okay, I've just about caught up with this thread. This post is egregiously incorrect in its categorization of Ver's behavior during Mafia games. Ver frequently starts off a mafia game by posting two or three huge posts, and then communicates by PMs at night. This has been the case in every game I've ever played with Ver, and he's not playing any differently. When mafia, he usually posts less often day 2 and day 3, and when townie, Ver has tended towards PM'ing a specific group. In previous games, he's also tried guessing my role multiple times via PMs. That Ver might not like playing through PMs does not prevent him from doing so, and he does.
I apologize for being so inactive. I was away all of Saturday and most of Sunday. When I came back, I had 55 or so pages to tackle, and it was just overwhelming because of the amount of garbage in the thread which resulted from many individuals intentionally and rather blatantly ignoring the response posts of those whom they accused. Just an example: Ace is often accused of being mafia, and even though he is not contributing as much as he usually does, he does defend himself. Quite literally pages upon pages of responses to Ace's posts are complete misreadings of what he says. Everything ends up getting buried, and "inactives" like me get frustrated at how no responses can be made to those posts because there are forty pages to go. And this isn't just with Ace. Everyone's posts are being misinterpreted or skewed in some form or another, and more importantly, many are being overlooked (most notably, Ver's). Spammers respond to Chezinu's and BM's nonsense posts like they aren't half-assed troll attempts (chezinu more so than BM).
It's just all very depressing.
Perhaps on a more positive note, I really like the way "madnessman" is posting so far. Everything is well-thought out, and none of it is useless. Keep it up.
BM: Roleclaiming medic is an incredibly stupid move in this game, every bit as much as in any other game. As has already been pointed out, both mafia teams are simply trying to kill each other. In the event that one team is better than the other, the town should use medics to defend key mafia players, in order to be able to fulfill its own victory conditions. In this situation, the stronger mafia team will try to snipe the medics. Publicly RC'in medic makes this a rather easy task, even if he isn't necessarily confirmed (this is in general, not just redtooth), and takes away a stalling weapon the town still has.
I have contributed absolutely nothing this game, and I intend to help out now if I can.
Nothing here incriminates LucasWoJ or Ver. I am not accusing them and I cannot tie a single clue to either of them. However, if one turns up red at any point in time, this exchange is worth keeping in mind. Consider it a "grouping" if you will.
Ver has been actively PMing but don't think that's a scumtell. i mean ace was a bit different too in regards to PM activity but he turned out to be green. however, i am a bit startled as to the huge number of potential groupings with Ver. either people are too trusting of his detailed explanations or he is mafia for both families... obviously the latter isn't possible so i'll go with the first one.
Ver is smart. he is reasonable and logical. however you shouldn't take his word for granted and always check over his reasoning. if he is mafia then he is dangerous.
however, with that hitlist i have to wonder if mafia isn't just full of rookies. some of those kills just seem... illogical.
On February 18 2010 00:30 789 wrote: Also I threw this possibility out before. Is it possible that zato was killed by a bomb? This possibility wouldn't exclude BC getting double hit and ver (if he's telling the truth) absorbing a hit from last night. The hits would still add up to 6. He was killed when he opened his door ... by a bunch of metal sharp objects. Now I don't know how much you guys know about homemade bombs ... but if you want to increase their killing power you pack them with small metal objects to act as shrapnel. This could also explain the hole in the wall. There was a mafia member talked about in the paragraph ... but nothing of really important detail. He knocked on the door but was nowhere to be seen when zato opened it and was killed. I think its either possible that the mafia member used a bomb to kill him (for a clue) or it was a bomb of BC (from madhatter ability).
It definitely sounds like shrapnel or glass or something like that. But in previous games when someone has died form a mad hatter bomb, the day post says something at the end like "and mysteriously, on the other side of town, Infundibulum exploded in a shower of blood while he was sleeping!." So I'm pretty sure this is a mafia killer. We don't even know if BC placed a bomb last night anyway, though i wouldn't be too surprised if had placed it on Ver due to their disagreements in the thread.
Not entirely true. Based upon discussion from Day 1 it was apparent that BC actually believed that Ver had the best platform for candidacy, and also believed that if Ver lynched BC, that it would look really bad.
And besides if he had placed a bomb on Ver then Ver would be dead, which he's not.
i think its pretty obvious that BC placed a bomb on Ver but Ver got protected. there should be seven deaths (because BC undoubtly used his skill) but there is only 5. the most logical hitlist is: - BC - doubletap BC (second totally unrelated clue) - Ace - zato - d3 - fulgrim - Ver (bombed but protected)
only alternative is Ver faked his protection but that is a huge gamble (if someone else comes forward with a protection claim then the numbers don't add up), i don't know if he realized BC was double tapped at the time, and there really is no benefit to that move.
On February 09 2010 16:02 Incognito wrote: Mayor You are the winner of the election. You have to PM me before the end of Day 1 with the name of the player you would like lynched on Day 1 if you win. You can't choose the Pardoner as the Day 1 lynch victim. Your votes count as three votes instead of one. You cannot be Role Checked by a DT. You are the only person who knows who the bodyguards are.
On February 09 2010 16:02 Incognito wrote: Mayor You are the winner of the election. You have to PM me before the end of Day 1 with the name of the player you would like lynched on Day 1 if you win. You can't choose the Pardoner as the Day 1 lynch victim. Your votes count as three votes instead of one. You cannot be Role Checked by a DT. You are the only person who knows who the bodyguards are.
It is quite apparent, at least to me, that those few on the bottom with little posts, coincide a bunch with many of the people that the town has called out on.
Shikyo... Phrujbaz..
I am suspicious a bit of foolish, but then.. I always am, I'm just not as open about it like L and Ace are with each other.
We also observe there is an obvious gap from L to meeple. So either the top four are trying to stand out enough to not get suspected of the usual mafia inactivity, or are generally concerned townies that want to help more than anyone else in town? That in itself seems suspicious to me.
Also, how many people have been suspected from scamp down, the other slight break in post counts?
On February 18 2010 04:06 redtooth wrote: only alternative is Ver faked his protection but that is a huge gamble (if someone else comes forward with a protection claim then the numbers don't add up), i don't know if he realized BC was double tapped at the time, and there really is no benefit to that move.
I don't see this as a gamble, under the circumstances, assuming that he's mafia. If someone else comes forward with a protection claim then the numbers still add up, since there's an extra hit due to BC.
However, I believe his claim that he was hit and protected since I can't actually see the benefit of false claiming. It doesn't clear him as non-mafia and whoever protected him can't claim to him. All that we know, assuming it's true, is that one of the mafia families targeted him.
On February 18 2010 04:22 SugiuraMidori wrote: It is quite apparent, at least to me, that those few on the bottom with little posts, coincide a bunch with many of the people that the town has called out on.
Shikyo... Phrujbaz..
I am suspicious a bit of foolish, but then.. I always am, I'm just not as open about it like L and Ace are with each other.
We also observe there is an obvious gap from L to meeple. So either the top four are trying to stand out enough to not get suspected of the usual mafia inactivity, or are generally concerned townies that want to help more than anyone else in town? That in itself seems suspicious to me.
Also, how many people have been suspected from scamp down, the other slight break in post counts?
Scamp, Vivi57, Abenson, etc.
P.S. You're welcome, Lucas.
Well, Shikyo's obsession with metal + the inscription on the handle of the pike?
I mean, maybe that just arises from my ignorant view of most metal...
EPT
" and you have a great case against bc.
?![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/48393.jpg?1265766812)
![[image loading]](http://media.comicvine.com/uploads/1/17047/409731-120357-abomination_super.jpg)
