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The early game as a townie seems pretty simple to me. Weather the storm and hope the mafia doesn't kill you.
Usually in a mafia game there would be about 10-14 or so mafia for 50 people. I think their KP would be about 4-5. I'm not really much of a mafia game organizer so I dunno if these stats are totally right, but I'm sure they're not far off if they are.
So if it's just town v. mafia the town is at a major disadvantage, with 20 mafia and a KP of 6. Obviously this is balanced out by the fact that the two mafia families are trying to kill each other. So the goal right now is just to survive IMO.
Redtooth mentioned that the town is screwed if the two mafia families decide to mutually kill off the town. This is true, but it'll never happen. The two mafia families would have to talk to each other in order for that to happen, and if one revealed any names to the other they'd all die. Even if they worked together to kill the town, you'd still want to be at least one kill up on the other family so you'd win the shootout afterwards.
The last game with two mafia families was horrible for the town because the two families were not in opposition, they just didn't know who exactly was in the other group. Once they found each other and connected, the town was screwed. Again, this isn't the case for this game.
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On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote:
L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well.
summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position.
i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis.
about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings.
also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected? On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways. I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families. Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has. I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone. Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? probably never.
i don't know if you stopped reading my post halfway but there are a lot of other points i make, one of them about Ace's clues. it is very much within reason that if Ace were mafia, incognito would want him alive. giving Ace what amounts to be a guaranteed death sentence on day 1 is ridiculous and not likely.
and if you were running the game, wouldn't you do an equal number of clues per family per day post? how else do you hold a neutral position? give one family an obvious clue and the other three hard clues? no it's very very very much within reason that incognito would do a 1:1 ratio (at least at this point with all mafia alive). and he DEFINITELY wouldn't do a whole string of clues that point to a veteran mafia without doing at least one 'obvious' clue pointing to the other family.
if anything Ace seems more innocent because there are so many clues pointing to him. of course that doesn't give him guaranteed townie status (like what chezinu was trying with citizen). i think you are being absurd right now and am wondering if you just want him killed so you can take over the game.
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wanted to add that the reason why he wouldn't give Ace the death sentence off of day 1 clues is the obvious imbalance that would result between the two mafia families. one would lose a very strong mafia player with a lot of influence. the other would go into the first night with full membership.
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Shit is falling in to place beautifully.
Read the last paragraph Redtooth just wrote. Seems like L is trying to FORCE the town to believe 4-5 clues are tied to me doesn't it?
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I think Ace was right... It's kind of a RISK like game with mini alliances where the town acts like a mafia family with kp of 1. There's definitely some intrigue here.
So just to clear this up...
we have 5 people contending for mayor?
Ace, L, Citizen, l10f, meeple, and Ver.
Right now everyone has 1 vote except for Ace and Ver who have 2 votes.
Edit: So much "omg that's exactly what mafia would do!" b/w the L and Ace sides.
I've of teh opinion that both are vets, so they wouldn't be making any noob mistakes in terms of a scumtell. But isn't it a bit early to be throwing around some wild accusations as "that's what mafia would do. He must be mafia".
It seems the mayor vote is a bit of a lucky guess, because like in the last Incog mafia game, we have a mafia sheriff. We can only know so much about the candidates... and instead of throwing around accusations, focus on a plan for what happens are we have a mayor (like if we lynch the other runner or w/e).
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On February 14 2010 14:18 Faronel wrote:
I think Ace was right... It's kind of a RISK like game with mini alliances where the town acts like a mafia family with kp of 1. There's definitely some intrigue here.
So just to clear this up...
we have 5 people contending for mayor?
Ace, L, Citizen, l10f, meeple, and Ver.
Right now everyone has 1 vote except for Ace and Ver who have 2 votes.
I don't think Ver actually said he was running yet, but if he does he has my vote currently.
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I'm running for mayor as well
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On February 14 2010 14:18 Faronel wrote:
I think Ace was right... It's kind of a RISK like game with mini alliances where the town acts like a mafia family with kp of 1. There's definitely some intrigue here.
So just to clear this up...
we have 5 people contending for mayor?
Ace, L, Citizen, l10f, meeple, and Ver.
Right now everyone has 1 vote except for Ace and Ver who have 2 votes.
Edit: So much "omg that's exactly what mafia would do!" b/w the L and Ace sides.
I've of teh opinion that both are vets, so they wouldn't be making any noob mistakes in terms of a scumtell. But isn't it a bit early to be throwing around some wild accusations as "that's what mafia would do. He must be mafia".
It seems the mayor vote is a bit of a lucky guess, because like in the last Incog mafia game, we have a mafia sheriff. We can only know so much about the candidates... and instead of throwing around accusations, focus on a plan for what happens are we have a mayor (like if we lynch the other runner or w/e).
FYI editing posts are illigal
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On February 14 2010 14:18 Faronel wrote:
I think Ace was right... It's kind of a RISK like game with mini alliances where the town acts like a mafia family with kp of 1. There's definitely some intrigue here.
So just to clear this up...
we have 5 people contending for mayor?
Ace, L, Citizen, l10f, meeple, and Ver.
Right now everyone has 1 vote except for Ace and Ver who have 2 votes.
Edit: So much "omg that's exactly what mafia would do!" b/w the L and Ace sides.
I've of teh opinion that both are vets, so they wouldn't be making any noob mistakes in terms of a scumtell. But isn't it a bit early to be throwing around some wild accusations as "that's what mafia would do. He must be mafia".
It seems the mayor vote is a bit of a lucky guess, because like in the last Incog mafia game, we have a mafia sheriff. We can only know so much about the candidates... and instead of throwing around accusations, focus on a plan for what happens are we have a mayor (like if we lynch the other runner or w/e).
What did you edit?
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On February 14 2010 14:18 Faronel wrote:
So just to clear this up...
we have 5 people contending for mayor?
Ace, L, Citizen, l10f, meeple, and Ver.
There's way more people than that.
At least there's chezinu, l10fd, DrH and BC to add to that least. There is probably others 
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Yea guys don't start editing already
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On February 14 2010 14:18 Faronel wrote:
So much "omg that's exactly what mafia would do!" b/w the L and Ace sides.
I've of teh opinion that both are vets, so they wouldn't be making any noob mistakes in terms of a scumtell. But isn't it a bit early to be throwing around some wild accusations as "that's what mafia would do. He must be mafia". what are you talking about? there were absolutely 0 (zero) mafia accusations among the two of them until i just brought up the possibility that L wanted Ace dead for a reason. i still think BC is the most suspicious and that L is being a bit grumpy today (and everyday...).
ok i'm a bit tired right now and have work to do so i'm going to decrease my activity significantly.
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On February 14 2010 14:13 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote:On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote:
L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well.
summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position.
i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis.
about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings.
also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected? On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways. I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families. Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has. I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone. Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? probably never. i don't know if you stopped reading my post halfway but there are a lot of other points i make, one of them about Ace's clues. it is very much within reason that if Ace were mafia, incognito would want him alive. giving Ace what amounts to be a guaranteed death sentence on day 1 is ridiculous and not likely. and if you were running the game, wouldn't you do an equal number of clues per family per day post? how else do you hold a neutral position? give one family an obvious clue and the other three hard clues? no it's very very very much within reason that incognito would do a 1:1 ratio (at least at this point with all mafia alive). and he DEFINITELY wouldn't do a whole string of clues that point to a veteran mafia without doing at least one 'obvious' clue pointing to the other family. if anything Ace seems more innocent because there are so many clues pointing to him. of course that doesn't give him guaranteed townie status (like what chezinu was trying with citizen). i think you are being absurd right now and am wondering if you just want him killed so you can take over the game.
1) So Ace needs to be innocent because he's too valuable a player to die off early? That's interesting speculation; its rather easy to try and twist a nearly 100% clue kill on someone away from that person.
Case Study: Truthbringer. I had to yell for 5+ pages in a small game on nearly 100% solid clues to get people to lynch truthbringer on day 2. Mafia being able to wagon against me in public opinion/changing the subject/arguing against the clue makes it very hard to actually have a correct clue analysis stick. Many of the games in which someone pins many members down, no one actually acts upon the good information.
Additionally; what's to say the mafia don't have more than 1 good player? This game has around 10 very good veteran players; town probably has 4-6, the other mafia teams likely have 2-3. I don't see why incog would exclusively post clues to people on their first or second game.
2) Incog might be throwing out clues in a 1:1 ratio, but there's no clear demarcation in the clues as to which personae belong to which side. The only thing that stands out to me as an indication are the 2 horsemen being together, and the oil igniter being on the opposite side of the house.
On the topic of other clues; There's a number of other clues that I'm pretty sure I have nailed down too. My initial estimate of 4 personae was a bit low; there's probably 6 at the minimum in there, but some of them only have passing non-linked references. Those references are much harder to get; The cheese factory, for instance, was always around, but not linked to a person. I'm just not 100% sure yet because I haven't looked over all of the profiles with those specific themes in mind. I wouldn't be surprised if mafia hit 2-3 targets tonight.
I don't look at people to get clues pinned to them. I use clues to build a persona, then i look to see which person is most identical to the persona.
3) No, generally people look more innocent if there are herring clues; clues that don't directly link up to a persona that vaguely look like they're pointing at them. Shadowdragon and the multitude of non-linked dark and shadow references, for instance, ruled out the use of his name as a clue. In the current instance, there's one horse rider who is thematically linked to Ace's quote perfectly. The clues are specific, and the clues are complete in their description.
The pushback I'm getting on fairly cut and dry clues, especially given that no one is bothering to actually talk about the actual clues, is fairly telling; I hit a nerve somewhere.
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On February 14 2010 14:13 redtooth wrote:
if anything Ace seems more innocent because there are so many clues pointing to him. of course that doesn't give him guaranteed townie status (like what chezinu was trying with citizen). i think you are being absurd right now and am wondering if you just want him killed so you can take over the game.
The affront to logic here is so egregious, that coupled with all of your previous posts in which you go out of your way to defend Ace one might think you have an ulterior motive for doing so. I mean, I can understand if you don't think much of clue analysis, and you've been pretty unambiguous on that subject. But from your posts, I can't help but get the impression that you KNOW Ace isn't mafia, or at least that you are committed to defending him.
Put another way, if Ace were to flip red, you would rank quite high on my next list of suspects. No, I am not accusing you of anything right now. Defending someone else and stopping a bandwagon before it begins has its merits if you feel the charges against that person lack substance. The fact that you have gone above and beyond this is... puzzling, at best.
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It's not puzzling Zato. I've done the same thing redtooth has done in numerous games, and every single time the person turned out to be innocent. Really, it's very easy to see when someone is building a case on bullshit.
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On February 14 2010 14:33 L wrote:
2) Incog might be throwing out clues in a 1:1 ratio, but there's no clear demarcation in the clues as to which personae belong to which side. The only thing that stands out to me as an indication are the 2 horsemen being together, and the oil igniter being on the opposite side of the house. do you understand what i am trying to say? it doesn't matter that there is no demarcation of which persona belongs to which family. it does matter that you are implying ~5 clues (easy ones at that) are pointing at a single persona and that persona is Ace.
and about the multiple veterans, it still means that one family would have one less veteran, a significant blow regardless of how many vets you have on your team. that would be a serious balance issue.
as a side note, i'm sure some of you may suspect that i am associated with Ace in some manner. the answer is a simple no. i think that Ace is one of the best mafia players (imo second only to MBH) and he is a valuable town asset.
actually, go ahead and check Mafia XV. Ace makes a call, L wants Ace to be killed, I defend Ace, town bandwagons against Ace, Ace dies due to L's assertiveness, Ace turns out correct on his call, L flips red godfather.
L maybe I hit a nerve?
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Ugh damn it... reading some 7 odd pages trying to catch up...
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BTW I WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT I WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TYPING THAT OUT BEFORE ZATO POSTED.
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Right, Day 0 and clash of the titans has begun. L vs Ace, and Ver will occasionally appear and impart a wordy essay of wisdom and then just as suddenly vanish for dozens of pages, if history is any indication.
I think right now its good to keep in mind this clue discussion, and most especially the players' reactions - but we also need to elect a mayor and there's been a bit less discussion about that. Can anyone vouch for citizen from the game he's talking about? I'll read through it but I always enjoy a 2nd opinion.
I wouldn't mind voting for citi, i10f, or Ver. Ace or L mayor is too much drama for me and probably the rest of the town too
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sort of random but i never said Ace is innocent. i am just saying that those clues don't point to him and that day 1 clue analysis is absolute trash and more detrimental to the town than it is beneficial.
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EPT
