EPTTL Mafia XVIII - Page 21
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:17 citi.zen wrote: All I can tell you is that, as a rule, I trust nobody, regardless of previous game history or in-game behavior. I was going to abstain, like usual, but you have my vote. | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:39 citi.zen wrote: For those who know the history better: has Ace ever been mafia, in any game? Yes, and he was killed right off the bat. | ||
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rredtooth
5460 Posts
we've done this before (lynching a losing vet mayor) but i think it has double effectiveness because we should have 2 (DOUBLE!) mafia families submitting members for mayor candidacy. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion. I also think we should be using these clues to profile the mafia, rather than starting analytical arguments/trying to accuse anyone already. It seems a bit suspicious that L is already trying to paint Ace red based on the clues when all of the experienced players are saying that using day 1 clues to lynch/accuse is just stupid. Ace's posting style is a bit arrogant and aggressive for my tastes and I disagree that clues are essentially useless, but his point is fair. Clues, if anything, should be a helping point for our DT's and something used in the late-game | ||
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[NyC]HoBbes
United States803 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Ver has been the most sensible so far imo His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion. I also think we should be using these clues to profile the mafia, rather than starting analytical arguments/trying to accuse anyone already. It seems a bit suspicious that L is already trying to paint Ace red based on the clues when all of the experienced players are saying that using day 1 clues to lynch/accuse is just stupid. Ace's posting style is a bit arrogant and aggressive for my tastes and I disagree that clues are essentially useless, but his point is fair. Clues, if anything, should be a helping point for our DT's and something used in the late-game I agree that actually acting on clues should be saved for late-game, but discussing them is helpful all game, as more discussion early game=more paper trail late game | ||
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid. Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this. I like how instead of refuting the claims, you make yourself sound so high and mighty that it's preposterous these suspicions were cast in the first place, therefore you don't need to give any explanations to anyone. Yes, I agree that I contributed to casting a light of suspicion on you, based on L's post. Given how blatantly your profile matched the Day 1 clues, I'd say raising an eyebrow is warranted- but enough of that. It's derailing the conversation, since you're obviously less interested in attacking the arguments made against you than you are in attacking their proponents. On February 14 2010 12:51 L wrote: 1) What's our job as town? Survive? Hunt mafia? You tell me. Without any Vigis this game, most of the KP lies in the mafia families, so we want to paint targets on mafia members' heads. Your math was more or less correct: We need 16-17 mafia dead in order to win, and our numbers cannot drop below 5. With 6 KP a night in mafia hands (who are looking at a universe of targets of 10 mafia and 31 townies for a ~75% chance of hitting a town member if chosen at random), plus our very own 1 KP from a lynch (with a universe 20 mafia and 31 town targets for ~60% chance of lynching one of our own if chosen at random), we have 6 or 7 days on our hands- as you said, not nearly enough to lynch the 14+ mafia we need to kill (I'm assuming they'll manage to kill at least two or three of each others' ranks in the process). If decisions are left to chance due to a lack of likely targets, we lose. Things we ought to do by tomorrow: 1. Get a list of people who haven't posted. 2. Point out anything that seems suspicious. You may lead their posters to gruesome deaths at mafia hands, but again- a lack of leads is just not good enough for us. We need to feed the mafia families info that is more likely to get them to kill other mafiosos than random chance, for now. The mafia families have the men of action- they get to make the big calls that determine who lives and who dies, mostly. We just play the role of detectives, for now. And choose a mayor / pardoner. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote: L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well. summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position. i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis. about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings. also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected? On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways. I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families. Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has. I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone. Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? | ||
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Abenson
Canada4122 Posts
Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:48 Abenson wrote: *lurks* Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D Just for future reference; In a game of this size, people are going to be very page sensitive. People don't like reading through hundreds of pages of stuff, especially when people die or they need to go back and reference arguments earlier in the thread. Please do not make empty posts unless you really feel like you need to tell people that you're not contributing. Empty posts bump quality off the current page and bury important content-containing posts. Its rather easy to have an accurate finger on someone, then simply have mafia chum it up for a few lines and get it off of people's minds. That type of action has probably already happened more than once this game, given the amount of people being pointed at, as well as the amount of people posting 1-4 lines of content void garbage. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:48 Abenson wrote: *lurks* Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D This, and only posting "HAIL ACE" everywhere. ...If I were Mayor, I would just lynch you first. | ||
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rredtooth
5460 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:46 Zato-1 wrote: it's how he plays, whether he is mafia or town-aligned. people hate him for it but hey he's proven his proficiency in the game so whatever. also read my post about day 1 clues.I like how instead of refuting the claims, you make yourself sound so high and mighty that it's preposterous these suspicions were cast in the first place, therefore you don't need to give any explanations to anyone. Yes, I agree that I contributed to casting a light of suspicion on you, based on L's post. Given how blatantly your profile matched the Day 1 clues, I'd say raising an eyebrow is warranted- but enough of that. It's derailing the conversation, since you're obviously less interested in attacking the arguments made against you than you are in attacking their proponents. also mafia benefits more by killing the other mafia family instead of killing the town. sure by not killing the other mafia family they allow the town a fighting chance to win they otherwise would not have had, but the less aggressive mafia family (the one that targets town instead of the other mafia family) will die/lose to the more aggressive one. so logically they will try to find and kill the other mafia family. think of it this way. if both mafia families mutually agree to kill off townies first then we are screwed. however, there is no way of enforcing this and because the mafia have such high comparative KP (town only has their lynch) the families are better of neutralizing that threat. edit: really sorry but i forgot a QUOTE tag. the only thing i changed is i added a quote tag at the bottom of the quote. edit 2: shit realized i put the QUOTE tag in the wrong line. fixed. i swear i didn't adjust anything else and i even preserved the previous version. + Show Spoiler [previous version] + On February 14 2010 13:46 Zato-1 wrote: I like how instead of refuting the claims, you make yourself sound so high and mighty that it's preposterous these suspicions were cast in the first place, therefore you don't need to give any explanations to anyone. Yes, I agree that I contributed to casting a light of suspicion on you, based on L's post. Given how blatantly your profile matched the Day 1 clues, I'd say raising an eyebrow is warranted- but enough of that. It's derailing the conversation, since you're obviously less interested in attacking the arguments made against you than you are in attacking their proponents.[quote]it's how he plays, whether he is mafia or town-aligned. people hate him for it but hey he's proven his proficiency in the game so whatever. also read my post about day 1 clues. also mafia benefits more by killing the other mafia family instead of killing the town. sure by not killing the other mafia family they allow the town a fighting chance to win they otherwise would not have had, but the less aggressive mafia family (the one that targets town instead of the other mafia family) will die/lose to the more aggressive one. so logically they will try to find and kill the other mafia family. think of it this way. if both mafia families mutually agree to kill off townies first then we are screwed. however, there is no way of enforcing this and because the mafia have such high comparative KP (town only has their lynch) the families are better of neutralizing that threat. edit: really sorry but i forgot a QUOTE tag. the only thing i changed is i added a quote tag at the bottom of the quote. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
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Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote: Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? Interesting point; clues may not overlap on one Mafia until much later. On February 14 2010 13:42 redtooth wrote: oh and i totally forgot to mention that the reason i want mayor to lynch a losing vet mayor candidate is because mafia wants to get a person into mayor position. they won't send a random member because that person won't have any chance of winning and BC has a legit chance of winning mayor/pardoner. we've done this before (lynching a losing vet mayor) but i think it has double effectiveness because we should have 2 (DOUBLE!) mafia families submitting members for mayor candidacy. I agree with this, but what do the people running think? | ||
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rredtooth
5460 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:58 BloodyC0bbler wrote: i am one of the harshest critics of day 1 clue analysis. what do you mean?my bad, that should be to redtooth not L, fast reading ftl | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
" i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis." I'm not going to focus on it now. Nor am i trying to fade into the shadows, observering is something that is needed right now | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On February 14 2010 13:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote: L I wont spend time on day 1 clue analysis till like day 3, there is no point till then, i dont get why you love it so much Because I'm one of the only people who actually hits targets before day 3. I dunno, my record during clue games when I'm innocent is pretty sterling. I just end up not going balls in on my suspects and then they kill me off day 3. Granted that town doesn't have fucking time to sit around granted the massive kp disparity, I don't see why we'd ignore the only concrete information we have about someone's allegiance. | ||
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CynanMachae
Canada1459 Posts
I do agree with Ace that clues shouldn't be used to lynch people on the first few days, but really, saying that clue analysis is bad isn't true. I might not be the most experienced player when playing mafia, but I know that last game what helped us the most to catch the mafias at the end was related to that clue analysis that went on early in the game. Clue analysis is helpful to the town even if it only serve for later behavior analysis, but shouldn't been the sole motive for a lynch yea. Anyway, there really seems to be a lot of people running for office, a list would be helpful  | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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