EPTIncognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 25
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Ver
United States2186 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 15:47 meeple wrote: What's you coherent strategy? Lynch everyone who agrees with each other? No--I only wanted to lynch you and DrH because you guys started agreeing with each other wayyy too early in the thread, and furthermore, you guys backed each others' runs for the mayor/sheriff awfully early too. Anyhow, my strategy was: Random Ordering There are 7 mafia and 27 normal players + 2 extra mayor votes. In order for the mafia to win they must have a majority of survivor votes. The mafia kill 3 people per night. That means we have a 5 night margin of wrong lynches before mafia win. Once we take down mafia, that margin of nights increases. There is a simple solution, then, that can guarantee at least a 75% chance of success for the town. Arrange everyone in a random order and execute the next one on the list each night. With the 5 night margin of wrong lynches and the 1/2 kp/# proportion and 1:4 mafia:town ratio the town has a 77.8% chance of victory. This hinges on making sure the mayor is not mafia. If he is mafia then it becomes 9 mafia and 27 normal votes which means that the town only has a 3 night margin and the chances of victory for that plan go to 40%. That was my strategy. Happy? | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On January 21 2010 16:07 t_co wrote: Arrange everyone in a random order and execute the next one on the list each night. With the 5 night margin of wrong lynches and the 1/2 kp/# proportion and 1:4 mafia:town ratio the town has a 77.8% chance of victory. Can you expand on this? What were your calculations to get the result? | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
the 4 inactives are: Ng5, ohN, phyujbaz, and JohannesH. Correct me if i'm wrong. Many people will now say "Lynch them!", but do you kill stasised tanks first? Do you use feedback on a maelstromed defiler, or one that is running away towards your cannons?  | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
On January 21 2010 17:14 Bill Murray wrote: there are only 4 people who have yet to post on here, or are lurking (i'm assuming that because there are 3 people who have posted on the vote thread, who haven't posted here. there are also a few with only 1 post.) the 4 inactives are: Ng5, ohN, phyujbaz, and JohannesH. Correct me if i'm wrong. Many people will now say "Lynch them!", but do you kill stasised tanks first? Do you use feedback on a maelstromed defiler, or one that is running away towards your cannons? haha cute analogy I think right now that most mafia are sitting back and watching everyone argue lol | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On January 21 2010 17:14 Bill Murray wrote: there are only 4 people who have yet to post on here, or are lurking (i'm assuming that because there are 3 people who have posted on the vote thread, who haven't posted here. there are also a few with only 1 post.) the 4 inactives are: Ng5, ohN, phyujbaz, and JohannesH. Correct me if i'm wrong. Many people will now say "Lynch them!", but do you kill stasised tanks first? Do you use feedback on a maelstromed defiler, or one that is running away towards your cannons? lol... Ng5 isn't that active generally... but he's around (in his chess streaming thread), so I think he's lurking. I wouldn't lynch them yet, some of them are probably totally inactive and they will be modkilled. Lynching someone who's inactive is a waste. | ||
Jugan
United States1566 Posts
Now let's move on to a different topic. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
On January 21 2010 16:35 meeple wrote: Can you expand on this? What were your calculations to get the result? Here's the python script + Show Spoiler + #!/usr/bin/env python import random TRIALS = 100000 MAFIA_FRACTION = 0.25 MIN_POP = 6 MAX_POP = 30 HIT_VARIANT = 0 COMMONER = 0 MAFIA = 1 maf_wins = 0 com_wins = 0 def init_town(): popsize = random.randint(MIN_POP,MAX_POP) town = [COMMONER for j in range(0,popsize)] maf_count = int(MAFIA_FRACTION * popsize) for j in range(maf_count): while 1: idx = random.randint(0,popsize-1) if town[idx] != MAFIA: break town[idx] = MAFIA return town def hit_commoner(town): if COMMONER not in town: return town else: com = town.index(COMMONER) return town[:com] + town[com+1  for i in range(TRIALS): town = init_town() while len(town) > 0: town = town[1 if HIT_VARIANT: town = hit_commoner(town) maf_left = town.count(MAFIA) pop_left = len(town) if maf_left > (pop_left/2): maf_wins += 1 break elif maf_left == 0: com_wins += 1 break print "Commoner wins : " + str(com_wins) print "Mafia wins : " + str(maf_wins) print ("Mafia fraction : " + str(float(maf_wins)/float(maf_wins+com_wins))) | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Gah, how did I go through the reverse of a Gandhi quote? Gandhi: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Me: First I was winning, then they fought me, then they laughed at me, now they'll ignore me, and I'll get hit/lynched. | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
Look, I have no reason now to trust anyone. However, you t_co just make nonsensical arguments and change your story every paragraph. I find it really hard to belive this is accidental, as opposed to deliberate misinformation. Either way I find you hard to work with, despite your 13 post "experience" from the red mafia. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
Regardless he's made himself pretty suspicious and I'd love to be sure. | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
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