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On March 22 2014 15:02 killerdog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2014 14:50 dae wrote:On March 22 2014 12:01 Sufficiency wrote:OK guys, I got a set of results from Eiii's data. + Show Spoiler +I am currently examining Ashe, and how her win rate is affected by other champions. The TL;DR version is that Ashe loses a lot to Leona and LeBlanc, while wins a lot against Kassadin (!!!) Actual results below, as well as how to read the table. + Show Spoiler + Champion OR p-value Aatrox 0.9884 0.7168 Ahri 0.993 0.8229 Akali 0.9929 0.7879 Alistar 0.9969 0.9221 Amumu 0.9831 0.5368 Anivia 1.0369 0.4933 Annie 1.0497 0.0123 Ashe NA NA Blitzcrank 0.9829 0.388 Brand 1.0141 0.7168 Caitlyn 1.011 0.4994 Cassiopeia 0.9607 0.3789 Chogath 0.9912 0.7796 Corki 0.9532 0.2995 Darius 0.9745 0.2935 Diana 1.0153 0.6495 Draven 0.9909 0.7243 DrMundo 1.0048 0.8532 Elise 1.0184 0.4778 Evelynn 0.9905 0.8037 Ezreal 0.9642 0.047 FiddleSticks1.0347 0.1784 Fiora 1.0047 0.8925 Fizz 0.982 0.5322 Galio 0.9818 0.7969 Gangplank 1.0462 0.2337 Garen 0.9584 0.0882 Gragas 1.0206 0.3901 Graves 1.0144 0.599 Hecarim 1.035 0.3491 Heimerdinger0.9441 0.0959 Irelia 1.028 0.4571 Janna 1.06 0.0698 JarvanIV 0.9565 0.1665 Jax 0.9892 0.5939 Jayce 0.9973 0.946 Jinx 1.0327 0.0487 Karma 1.0089 0.8279 Karthus 0.887 0.0221 Kassadin 1.1454 0.0003 * Katarina 1.0094 0.6909 Kayle 1.0126 0.6325 Kennen 0.9409 0.2017 Khazix 1.0139 0.4946 KogMaw 0.9734 0.5817 Leblanc 0.9289 0.0017 * LeeSin 1.0105 0.5328 Leona 0.9285 0.0001 * Lissandra 1.0371 0.4683 Lucian 0.9917 0.6574 Lulu 1.0285 0.2684 Lux 0.9905 0.6698 Malphite 1.0127 0.6851 Malzahar 1.0219 0.6024 Maokai 0.9912 0.8743 MasterYi 0.9761 0.2511 MissFortune 1.0041 0.8943 MonkeyKing 0.9691 0.1121 Mordekaiser 0.9399 0.1765 Morgana 1.0018 0.9456 Nami 1.0373 0.2386 Nasus 1.011 0.601 Nautilus 1.0395 0.3376 Nidalee 1.024 0.242 Nocturne 0.9937 0.8611 Nunu 0.9918 0.8425 Olaf 0.9456 0.0913 Orianna 1.0025 0.9449 Pantheon 0.9729 0.2153 Poppy 0.9631 0.4361 Quinn 0.9652 0.2333 Rammus 0.9451 0.2034 Renekton 1.0443 0.04 Rengar 0.9999 0.9974 Riven 0.9719 0.2058 Rumble 1.1326 0.0257 Ryze 1.0486 0.2358 Sejuani 0.991 0.8451 Shaco 1.0615 0.0368 Shen 1.009 0.7936 Shyvana 0.9643 0.144 Singed 1.0267 0.4985 Sion 1.0183 0.7201 Sivir 0.9993 0.9706 Skarner 1.0761 0.1812 Sona 0.9858 0.5919 Soraka 0.9841 0.5159 Swain 1.0779 0.1165 Syndra 1.0587 0.1545 Talon 1.0285 0.4563 Taric 1.0276 0.3996 Teemo 0.9822 0.3312 Thresh 1.0114 0.4789 Tristana 0.9899 0.6999 Trundle 0.9974 0.9346 Tryndamere 0.9912 0.7288 TwistedFate 1.0459 0.2174 Twitch 0.9957 0.9019 Udyr 0.9733 0.3257 Urgot 1.0139 0.8283 Varus 1.0269 0.2776 Vayne 0.9986 0.9358 Veigar 0.9495 0.1219 Velkoz 1.0489 0.1357 Vi 0.9979 0.9172 Viktor 0.937 0.2604 Vladimir 1.0325 0.31 Volibear 0.9852 0.5902 Warwick 0.9984 0.9501 Xerath 1.0364 0.2188 XinZhao 1.0051 0.8571 Yasuo 1.0332 0.0905 Yorick 0.9678 0.574 Zac 1.0675 0.1445 Zed 0.9925 0.7139 Ziggs 1.0181 0.4479 Zilean 0.9564 0.384 Zyra 0.9817 0.5905
Take Leona's line, for example: Champion OR p-value Leona 0.9285 0.0001 *
The OR is the effect of having Ashe on one side and Leona on the other side, AFTER ADJUSTING FOR OVERALL WIN RATE FOR ASHE AND LEONA. In this case, we are seeing that when Ashe is on one side and Leona is on the other, Ashe wins 92.85% as often (7% less often), after adjusting for overall power of Ashe and Leona. The p-value is for statistical significance. If you know what p-values are you should know what this means. I made the cut-off to be p < 0.01 to control FDR. I have marked the ones with p < 0.01 with an *. What is this adjustment business? Recall, for example, Amumu has close to 55% win rate overall. Therefore, if you stick Ashe against Amumu, you will expect Ashe to lose a lot more often simply because "Amumu is OP", not because Amumu is strong against Ashe specifically. The adjustments are made to minimize this effect; in this case, I am saying after factoring in the power levels of Ashe and Leona individually, Ashe still loses 7% more often when Leona is on the other side - this suggests Leona counters Ashe quite hard. Out of curiosity, could you do this for Veigar? I know that gragas/zed are considered the hardest counters vs him, and hes considered to counter Ahri, but it would be interesting to see what the data says. Why does specifically gragas counter him?
Mostly the lane, gragas can just push/bully you/kill you under tower really easily, his ult basically kills you if you dont have flash, and hes too tanky/has too much sustain to poke down then burst.
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On March 22 2014 15:08 VayneAuthority wrote: his damage reduction greatly upsets people that are meant to delete you in one go. His ult can make you blow flash whenever he wants pretty much with your unreliable method of escape from ganks. lets face it gragas is just a "counter" to a lot right now Gragas has also been relevant in the pro scene longer than any other champion in the game (that I can think of). He fell off a little bit during season 2 around Worlds iirc 'cause Anivia and Oriana were so strong then, but honestly he's been extremely relevant since Season 1.
Like, I think the direction Riot's taking with their Gragas rework is kinda dumb and the justifications for some of the changes are stupid (ult people into Q is like..pure luck, maybe 10% skill) but given Riot's track record and Gragas's record a nerf/rework is not unexpected at all.
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While I know live balance and champion production are two separate team, I think I much preferred it when Riot was busy releasing a champion every couple of weeks.
They were so preoccupied with that schedule it gave them less time to think about how they could mess around with other champions via 'reworks'.
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On March 22 2014 15:11 zulu_nation8 wrote: is robertxlee not on coL anymore? Still on coL... sub for EG this weekend dno if still sub for XDG
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I wonder what would happen in a world where, once every two weeks, every champions whose pick rate (or win rate) surpassed ~30% (or 53%) would automatically got a small nerf (.1 ratio or small cd changes or something) and the opposite for if it fell below 2% pickrate/47% winrate.
Just have a group of people who would choose which part of the kit to nerf/buff so it wasn't totally useless buffs.
obviously it would be a bit impractical, and some champs would get a bit wrecked, and pro play might get wonky, but it would definitely be interesting.
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On March 22 2014 15:52 killerdog wrote: I wonder what would happen in a world where, once every two weeks, every champions whose pick rate (or win rate) surpassed ~30% (or 53%) would automatically got a small nerf (.1 ratio or small cd changes or something) and the opposite for if it fell below 2% pickrate/47% winrate.
Just have a group of people who would choose which part of the kit to nerf/buff so it wasn't totally useless buffs.
obviously it would be a bit impractical, and some champs would get a bit wrecked, and pro play might get wonky, but it would definitely be interesting.
Rengar, Karma, and Syndra still have low pick rates. I don't think Riot should buff them.
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Bearded Elder29903 Posts
How about new Lantern/Madreds? Yey or ney?
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On March 22 2014 16:47 739 wrote: How about new Lantern/Madreds? Yey or ney? nay
once feral flare is released, maybe. but i doubt it. Elder lizard is too good.
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On March 22 2014 15:02 killerdog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2014 14:50 dae wrote:On March 22 2014 12:01 Sufficiency wrote:OK guys, I got a set of results from Eiii's data. + Show Spoiler +I am currently examining Ashe, and how her win rate is affected by other champions. The TL;DR version is that Ashe loses a lot to Leona and LeBlanc, while wins a lot against Kassadin (!!!) Actual results below, as well as how to read the table. + Show Spoiler + Champion OR p-value Aatrox 0.9884 0.7168 Ahri 0.993 0.8229 Akali 0.9929 0.7879 Alistar 0.9969 0.9221 Amumu 0.9831 0.5368 Anivia 1.0369 0.4933 Annie 1.0497 0.0123 Ashe NA NA Blitzcrank 0.9829 0.388 Brand 1.0141 0.7168 Caitlyn 1.011 0.4994 Cassiopeia 0.9607 0.3789 Chogath 0.9912 0.7796 Corki 0.9532 0.2995 Darius 0.9745 0.2935 Diana 1.0153 0.6495 Draven 0.9909 0.7243 DrMundo 1.0048 0.8532 Elise 1.0184 0.4778 Evelynn 0.9905 0.8037 Ezreal 0.9642 0.047 FiddleSticks1.0347 0.1784 Fiora 1.0047 0.8925 Fizz 0.982 0.5322 Galio 0.9818 0.7969 Gangplank 1.0462 0.2337 Garen 0.9584 0.0882 Gragas 1.0206 0.3901 Graves 1.0144 0.599 Hecarim 1.035 0.3491 Heimerdinger0.9441 0.0959 Irelia 1.028 0.4571 Janna 1.06 0.0698 JarvanIV 0.9565 0.1665 Jax 0.9892 0.5939 Jayce 0.9973 0.946 Jinx 1.0327 0.0487 Karma 1.0089 0.8279 Karthus 0.887 0.0221 Kassadin 1.1454 0.0003 * Katarina 1.0094 0.6909 Kayle 1.0126 0.6325 Kennen 0.9409 0.2017 Khazix 1.0139 0.4946 KogMaw 0.9734 0.5817 Leblanc 0.9289 0.0017 * LeeSin 1.0105 0.5328 Leona 0.9285 0.0001 * Lissandra 1.0371 0.4683 Lucian 0.9917 0.6574 Lulu 1.0285 0.2684 Lux 0.9905 0.6698 Malphite 1.0127 0.6851 Malzahar 1.0219 0.6024 Maokai 0.9912 0.8743 MasterYi 0.9761 0.2511 MissFortune 1.0041 0.8943 MonkeyKing 0.9691 0.1121 Mordekaiser 0.9399 0.1765 Morgana 1.0018 0.9456 Nami 1.0373 0.2386 Nasus 1.011 0.601 Nautilus 1.0395 0.3376 Nidalee 1.024 0.242 Nocturne 0.9937 0.8611 Nunu 0.9918 0.8425 Olaf 0.9456 0.0913 Orianna 1.0025 0.9449 Pantheon 0.9729 0.2153 Poppy 0.9631 0.4361 Quinn 0.9652 0.2333 Rammus 0.9451 0.2034 Renekton 1.0443 0.04 Rengar 0.9999 0.9974 Riven 0.9719 0.2058 Rumble 1.1326 0.0257 Ryze 1.0486 0.2358 Sejuani 0.991 0.8451 Shaco 1.0615 0.0368 Shen 1.009 0.7936 Shyvana 0.9643 0.144 Singed 1.0267 0.4985 Sion 1.0183 0.7201 Sivir 0.9993 0.9706 Skarner 1.0761 0.1812 Sona 0.9858 0.5919 Soraka 0.9841 0.5159 Swain 1.0779 0.1165 Syndra 1.0587 0.1545 Talon 1.0285 0.4563 Taric 1.0276 0.3996 Teemo 0.9822 0.3312 Thresh 1.0114 0.4789 Tristana 0.9899 0.6999 Trundle 0.9974 0.9346 Tryndamere 0.9912 0.7288 TwistedFate 1.0459 0.2174 Twitch 0.9957 0.9019 Udyr 0.9733 0.3257 Urgot 1.0139 0.8283 Varus 1.0269 0.2776 Vayne 0.9986 0.9358 Veigar 0.9495 0.1219 Velkoz 1.0489 0.1357 Vi 0.9979 0.9172 Viktor 0.937 0.2604 Vladimir 1.0325 0.31 Volibear 0.9852 0.5902 Warwick 0.9984 0.9501 Xerath 1.0364 0.2188 XinZhao 1.0051 0.8571 Yasuo 1.0332 0.0905 Yorick 0.9678 0.574 Zac 1.0675 0.1445 Zed 0.9925 0.7139 Ziggs 1.0181 0.4479 Zilean 0.9564 0.384 Zyra 0.9817 0.5905
Take Leona's line, for example: Champion OR p-value Leona 0.9285 0.0001 *
The OR is the effect of having Ashe on one side and Leona on the other side, AFTER ADJUSTING FOR OVERALL WIN RATE FOR ASHE AND LEONA. In this case, we are seeing that when Ashe is on one side and Leona is on the other, Ashe wins 92.85% as often (7% less often), after adjusting for overall power of Ashe and Leona. The p-value is for statistical significance. If you know what p-values are you should know what this means. I made the cut-off to be p < 0.01 to control FDR. I have marked the ones with p < 0.01 with an *. What is this adjustment business? Recall, for example, Amumu has close to 55% win rate overall. Therefore, if you stick Ashe against Amumu, you will expect Ashe to lose a lot more often simply because "Amumu is OP", not because Amumu is strong against Ashe specifically. The adjustments are made to minimize this effect; in this case, I am saying after factoring in the power levels of Ashe and Leona individually, Ashe still loses 7% more often when Leona is on the other side - this suggests Leona counters Ashe quite hard. Out of curiosity, could you do this for Veigar? I know that gragas/zed are considered the hardest counters vs him, and hes considered to counter Ahri, but it would be interesting to see what the data says. Why does specifically gragas counter him? One combo kills him from further range
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On March 22 2014 15:21 Ryuu314 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2014 15:08 VayneAuthority wrote: his damage reduction greatly upsets people that are meant to delete you in one go. His ult can make you blow flash whenever he wants pretty much with your unreliable method of escape from ganks. lets face it gragas is just a "counter" to a lot right now Gragas has also been relevant in the pro scene longer than any other champion in the game (that I can think of). He fell off a little bit during season 2 around Worlds iirc 'cause Anivia and Oriana were so strong then, but honestly he's been extremely relevant since Season 1. Like, I think the direction Riot's taking with their Gragas rework is kinda dumb and the justifications for some of the changes are stupid (ult people into Q is like..pure luck, maybe 10% skill) but given Riot's track record and Gragas's record a nerf/rework is not unexpected at all. Caitlyn, Vayne and Lee Sin
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At least they're doing something I suppose. Gragas can't really hang around the way he currently is. But then again, after Xerath was slaughtered (identity wise, still salty, jimmies still rustled), I'm worried whenever Riot says rework.
The overall direction seems for Gragas seems... sound imo.
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Naniwa with the mad respect for Faker and for League's skill cap in his interview with Thorin. Naniwa's been playing League lately too.
Neato.
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On March 22 2014 16:47 739 wrote: How about new Lantern/Madreds? Yey or ney? Until Feral Flare is out, consider them worse than before. After....we'll see.
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On March 22 2014 14:50 dae wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2014 12:01 Sufficiency wrote:OK guys, I got a set of results from Eiii's data. + Show Spoiler +I am currently examining Ashe, and how her win rate is affected by other champions. The TL;DR version is that Ashe loses a lot to Leona and LeBlanc, while wins a lot against Kassadin (!!!) Actual results below, as well as how to read the table. + Show Spoiler + Champion OR p-value Aatrox 0.9884 0.7168 Ahri 0.993 0.8229 Akali 0.9929 0.7879 Alistar 0.9969 0.9221 Amumu 0.9831 0.5368 Anivia 1.0369 0.4933 Annie 1.0497 0.0123 Ashe NA NA Blitzcrank 0.9829 0.388 Brand 1.0141 0.7168 Caitlyn 1.011 0.4994 Cassiopeia 0.9607 0.3789 Chogath 0.9912 0.7796 Corki 0.9532 0.2995 Darius 0.9745 0.2935 Diana 1.0153 0.6495 Draven 0.9909 0.7243 DrMundo 1.0048 0.8532 Elise 1.0184 0.4778 Evelynn 0.9905 0.8037 Ezreal 0.9642 0.047 FiddleSticks1.0347 0.1784 Fiora 1.0047 0.8925 Fizz 0.982 0.5322 Galio 0.9818 0.7969 Gangplank 1.0462 0.2337 Garen 0.9584 0.0882 Gragas 1.0206 0.3901 Graves 1.0144 0.599 Hecarim 1.035 0.3491 Heimerdinger0.9441 0.0959 Irelia 1.028 0.4571 Janna 1.06 0.0698 JarvanIV 0.9565 0.1665 Jax 0.9892 0.5939 Jayce 0.9973 0.946 Jinx 1.0327 0.0487 Karma 1.0089 0.8279 Karthus 0.887 0.0221 Kassadin 1.1454 0.0003 * Katarina 1.0094 0.6909 Kayle 1.0126 0.6325 Kennen 0.9409 0.2017 Khazix 1.0139 0.4946 KogMaw 0.9734 0.5817 Leblanc 0.9289 0.0017 * LeeSin 1.0105 0.5328 Leona 0.9285 0.0001 * Lissandra 1.0371 0.4683 Lucian 0.9917 0.6574 Lulu 1.0285 0.2684 Lux 0.9905 0.6698 Malphite 1.0127 0.6851 Malzahar 1.0219 0.6024 Maokai 0.9912 0.8743 MasterYi 0.9761 0.2511 MissFortune 1.0041 0.8943 MonkeyKing 0.9691 0.1121 Mordekaiser 0.9399 0.1765 Morgana 1.0018 0.9456 Nami 1.0373 0.2386 Nasus 1.011 0.601 Nautilus 1.0395 0.3376 Nidalee 1.024 0.242 Nocturne 0.9937 0.8611 Nunu 0.9918 0.8425 Olaf 0.9456 0.0913 Orianna 1.0025 0.9449 Pantheon 0.9729 0.2153 Poppy 0.9631 0.4361 Quinn 0.9652 0.2333 Rammus 0.9451 0.2034 Renekton 1.0443 0.04 Rengar 0.9999 0.9974 Riven 0.9719 0.2058 Rumble 1.1326 0.0257 Ryze 1.0486 0.2358 Sejuani 0.991 0.8451 Shaco 1.0615 0.0368 Shen 1.009 0.7936 Shyvana 0.9643 0.144 Singed 1.0267 0.4985 Sion 1.0183 0.7201 Sivir 0.9993 0.9706 Skarner 1.0761 0.1812 Sona 0.9858 0.5919 Soraka 0.9841 0.5159 Swain 1.0779 0.1165 Syndra 1.0587 0.1545 Talon 1.0285 0.4563 Taric 1.0276 0.3996 Teemo 0.9822 0.3312 Thresh 1.0114 0.4789 Tristana 0.9899 0.6999 Trundle 0.9974 0.9346 Tryndamere 0.9912 0.7288 TwistedFate 1.0459 0.2174 Twitch 0.9957 0.9019 Udyr 0.9733 0.3257 Urgot 1.0139 0.8283 Varus 1.0269 0.2776 Vayne 0.9986 0.9358 Veigar 0.9495 0.1219 Velkoz 1.0489 0.1357 Vi 0.9979 0.9172 Viktor 0.937 0.2604 Vladimir 1.0325 0.31 Volibear 0.9852 0.5902 Warwick 0.9984 0.9501 Xerath 1.0364 0.2188 XinZhao 1.0051 0.8571 Yasuo 1.0332 0.0905 Yorick 0.9678 0.574 Zac 1.0675 0.1445 Zed 0.9925 0.7139 Ziggs 1.0181 0.4479 Zilean 0.9564 0.384 Zyra 0.9817 0.5905
Take Leona's line, for example: Champion OR p-value Leona 0.9285 0.0001 *
The OR is the effect of having Ashe on one side and Leona on the other side, AFTER ADJUSTING FOR OVERALL WIN RATE FOR ASHE AND LEONA. In this case, we are seeing that when Ashe is on one side and Leona is on the other, Ashe wins 92.85% as often (7% less often), after adjusting for overall power of Ashe and Leona. The p-value is for statistical significance. If you know what p-values are you should know what this means. I made the cut-off to be p < 0.01 to control FDR. I have marked the ones with p < 0.01 with an *. What is this adjustment business? Recall, for example, Amumu has close to 55% win rate overall. Therefore, if you stick Ashe against Amumu, you will expect Ashe to lose a lot more often simply because "Amumu is OP", not because Amumu is strong against Ashe specifically. The adjustments are made to minimize this effect; in this case, I am saying after factoring in the power levels of Ashe and Leona individually, Ashe still loses 7% more often when Leona is on the other side - this suggests Leona counters Ashe quite hard. Out of curiosity, could you do this for Veigar? I know that gragas/zed are considered the hardest counters vs him, and hes considered to counter Ahri, but it would be interesting to see what the data says.
I can, but currently it takes ~1 hour to compute for a particular champion and I am already doing a pretty big batch. Also, Veigar is not too popular, which makes things tricky.
I'll run it once my current batch is done.
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On March 22 2014 16:57 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2014 15:21 Ryuu314 wrote:On March 22 2014 15:08 VayneAuthority wrote: his damage reduction greatly upsets people that are meant to delete you in one go. His ult can make you blow flash whenever he wants pretty much with your unreliable method of escape from ganks. lets face it gragas is just a "counter" to a lot right now Gragas has also been relevant in the pro scene longer than any other champion in the game (that I can think of). He fell off a little bit during season 2 around Worlds iirc 'cause Anivia and Oriana were so strong then, but honestly he's been extremely relevant since Season 1. Like, I think the direction Riot's taking with their Gragas rework is kinda dumb and the justifications for some of the changes are stupid (ult people into Q is like..pure luck, maybe 10% skill) but given Riot's track record and Gragas's record a nerf/rework is not unexpected at all. Caitlyn, Vayne and Lee Sin  oyea. forgot about that legendary westrice top lane tank vayne
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On March 22 2014 19:14 Ryuu314 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2014 16:57 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:On March 22 2014 15:21 Ryuu314 wrote:On March 22 2014 15:08 VayneAuthority wrote: his damage reduction greatly upsets people that are meant to delete you in one go. His ult can make you blow flash whenever he wants pretty much with your unreliable method of escape from ganks. lets face it gragas is just a "counter" to a lot right now Gragas has also been relevant in the pro scene longer than any other champion in the game (that I can think of). He fell off a little bit during season 2 around Worlds iirc 'cause Anivia and Oriana were so strong then, but honestly he's been extremely relevant since Season 1. Like, I think the direction Riot's taking with their Gragas rework is kinda dumb and the justifications for some of the changes are stupid (ult people into Q is like..pure luck, maybe 10% skill) but given Riot's track record and Gragas's record a nerf/rework is not unexpected at all. Caitlyn, Vayne and Lee Sin  oyea. forgot about that legendary westrice top lane tank vayne sounds terrible
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%max HP damage on Gragas. Eh.
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I think I'd get rid of the Q AS slow (removes a bit of top lane viability). I'd also lower ratios on his R. Not base damage. His ult is currently mostly used for damage and not displacement (which fits with the meta of no AOE comps, just deleting champs one at a time).
But what's more important imo is that Athene's > Deathcap is always the buildpath you go for (with maybe a armguard inbetween for Kha/Zed matchups). This buildpath favours Gragas immensely. Make sustain damage mages more favourable (buffing WotA, Abyssal, Liandry) and you'll see Gragas being less dominant.
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On March 22 2014 17:02 Chrispy wrote: Naniwa with the mad respect for Faker and for League's skill cap in his interview with Thorin. Naniwa's been playing League lately too.
Neato. idk if naniwa would be good in a team game like league lol.
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Pretty sure that Graves buff will make him retarded good botlane without the severe drop off from someone face tanking his ult
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