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motbob
United States12546 Posts
OK, this is basically a research project that could net anyone who participates some cheap electronic goodies (if we get the right results.)
There's this site called http://www.swoopo.com that is basically a scam site. They promise cheap electronics to whoever wins their auctions. Catch is, each bid costs the bidder $0.75 to make and bid increments are only 15 cents. Also, each bid adds 15-20 seconds onto the clock Go to the site and watch an auction to see why this site is really bad for the buyer and good for the seller.
Now, we looked at this site in Game Theory class to illustrate an example of an escalating game, a type of game you don't want to get involved in. The idea came up that perhaps we could gather data and see if there were an optimal time to bid, a time that would yield you a profit.
This is where Team Liquid comes in. I want to see if there's any interest in doing a research project to beat this site. If you volunteered, you'd probably only have to commit 10-15 minutes every day.
Let me explain how it would work. I would ask people to cover certain auctions in a category, such as video games/dvds, during a certain time period. Every minute, those people would copy down the bidding history. In this way we can see if there are any timing cues that would point to the item being about to be sold.
So if I were assigned to an auction, I would wait until the last 20 seconds of the auction and then start the clock. In the next minute, bids would appear in the bid history. At the end of the minute, I would copy the bids that had appeared and would just repeat that until the auction ended.
So, does anyone want to do this? Remember, if we beat the system, we get guaranteed cheap electronic stuff! If no one else volunteers, I'll just do it myself, but it would be really nice to have someone else to cover the times when I'm asleep/can't come to the computer.
EDIT: OOPS, I didn't actually say how I was going to beat the system. Well, after I get all the data, I'll see if there are any situations in which it would always be profitable to bid, like at a certain ratio of the retail price, or after bidding tapers off, or something. And by "beating the system" I mean "beating other bidders."
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Do you mind to elaborate more about how u plan to beat the system?
Of course the crucial time of the bidding is when it hits its regular price.
Wouldn't beating the system mean u profit more than the company?
but with them getting .75 for every bid, they can't really lose.
that is unless the bidding stops at a really low price but that won't happen unless the item is a really crappy thing that has really low demand.
So if we assume that the bidders bid up to at least when it hit the item's regular price then the company already bank in 5 times profit already. given that for every 15 cents, they make 75 cents.
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Burned Toast
Canada2040 Posts
Am I the only one thinking that the site has an "autobid" system with fake names ? Yeah, call me a conspirationist.
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Man this is the kind of stuff I'm going be studying in college (game theory and decision sciences to be specific). Sounds interesting and good luck. I'll join in later if there is absolutely no one else that volunteers.
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I don't understand why this is a scam though? A scam would be them willingly scamming you out of real money for either not the real product or no product at all. If you can inevitably get the same, non-dysfunctional product cheaper than you would at a retailer, how is this being scammed?
edit: oh so, each time you make a bid, it costs 75 cents (assuming you win the product?) So if you ended up winning a product for 5 bucks but it took you 20 bids to get there you'd end up paying 5 + .75 * 20?
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On March 20 2009 06:28 PanoRaMa wrote:
I don't understand why this is a scam though? A scam would be them willingly scamming you out of real money for either not the real product or no product at all. If you can inevitably get the same, non-dysfunctional product cheaper than you would at a retailer, how is this being scammed?
edit: oh so, each time you make a bid, it costs 75 cents (assuming you win the product?) So if you ended up winning a product for 5 bucks but it took you 20 bids to get there you'd end up paying 5 + .75 * 20?
We had this in romania some years ago, has been a big scandal with it. It's a scam because practically bids close when they want (with the time incremention) and only the winner gets a product and the bid never closes before the sum of all bids (who are lost when bid). And it's usually "one of theirs" that ends the bid  .
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It's impossible to beat them buddy. Those electronics don't even exist in reality.
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On March 20 2009 06:28 PanoRaMa wrote:
I don't understand why this is a scam though? A scam would be them willingly scamming you out of real money for either not the real product or no product at all. If you can inevitably get the same, non-dysfunctional product cheaper than you would at a retailer, how is this being scammed?
edit: oh so, each time you make a bid, it costs 75 cents (assuming you win the product?) So if you ended up winning a product for 5 bucks but it took you 20 bids to get there you'd end up paying 5 + .75 * 20?
I think even if you lose the auction, you still pay 75 cents per bid on that item. That's why it's such a bad thing to get involved with. People will be more likely to continue bidding since they already sunk some money into the auction.
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Ah ok, thanks for the explanations guys
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On March 20 2009 06:41 Pika Chu wrote:
It's impossible to beat them buddy. Those electronics don't even exist in reality.
My thoughts exactly. I was wondering if the OP's being naive or if I'm just too paranoid/skeptical
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
Even if it is impossible to beat them, I would still like to get data on the site. If it turns out there is a statistically significant point at which one can make profit, and we bid at those points and never win anything, then that's clearly evidence of fraud. I think it would be pretty satisfying to expose a company for fraud, even if we had to pay a little bit of money to do it.
EDIT: and lol at asking if i'm naive. I called it a scam site didn't I?
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lol, "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is."
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On March 20 2009 06:52 CharlieMurphy wrote:
lol, "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is."
Not if we do research beforehand. Fuck, I knew I'd get a bunch of people telling me not even to bother.
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On March 20 2009 06:53 motbob wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 06:52 CharlieMurphy wrote:
lol, "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is." Not if we do research beforehand. Fuck, I knew I'd get a bunch of people telling me not even to bother.
Mate read my posts and you will understand why.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On March 20 2009 06:55 Pika Chu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 06:53 motbob wrote:On March 20 2009 06:52 CharlieMurphy wrote:
lol, "if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is." Not if we do research beforehand. Fuck, I knew I'd get a bunch of people telling me not even to bother. Mate read my posts and you will understand why.
Why don't you read mine, instead. I already responded to you.
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Sorry then.
But anyway, what's the point of proving this is a scam? We already know, that's why we don't get tricked into playing and loosing our money in it.
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On March 20 2009 06:51 motbob wrote:
Even if it is impossible to beat them, I would still like to get data on the site.
What I really don't get, is why are you asking this of us? I mean, can't you really get some people from your classes to go with it? TeamLiquid is known for beating the internet, but only when it's about competition and fun. Gathering boring data is neither (especially that even TL can't "beat" it, ffs, you don't even have to do anything, just watch and write down numbers...).
Tell me the truth. Is this "project" a homework of yours and you need somene to do all the hard work for you?
And why won't you just read some more about it first?
... frequently seen when parties engage in a bidding war; the bidders can end up paying much more than the object is worth to justify the initial expenses associated with bidding (such as research), as well as part of a competitive instinct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_escalation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost
The only way to beat it is to not take part in it.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On March 20 2009 07:13 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 06:51 motbob wrote:
Even if it is impossible to beat them, I would still like to get data on the site. What I really don't get, is why are you asking this of us? I mean, can't you really get some people from your classes to go with it? TeamLiquid is known for beating the internet, but only when it's about competition and fun. Gathering boring data is neither (especially that even TL can't "beat" it, ffs, you don't even have to do anything, just watch and write down numbers...). Tell me the truth. Is this "project" a homework of yours and you need somene to do all the hard work for you? And why won't you just read some more about it first? Show nested quote +
... frequently seen when parties engage in a bidding war; the bidders can end up paying much more than the object is worth to justify the initial expenses associated with bidding (such as research), as well as part of a competitive instinct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_escalationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auctionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costThe only way to beat it is to not take part in it.
Yeah, I think the concept of the sunk cost is what loses a lot of people money. After someone bids, that money is gone forever, so they shouldn't base their future bids on what they did earlier. But the "irrational escalation" link, along with the "dollar auction," isn't the same game as Swoopo is. In the "dollar auction" example, both the high bidder and the second highest bidder pay. That was the game tree that we first plotted out in class. It is true that the only way to beat that game is to not take part in it. But, again, Swoopo is not that game.
I have indeed thought about the structure of this game, and whether it is possible to be beaten at all. It's impossible to know without empirical data.
I am surprised that after I posted something that could have been a group effort that would benefit anyone who took part in it, I am now getting accusations that I am pushing the hard work onto other Team Liquid members. That is quite possibly the most insulting thing you could have accused me of. The final project for my class is a group project, so if I were to do this subject, I would have other members of the class to help me.
EDIT: Maybe the best indication that I'm not opposed to doing menial copying and pasting myself is the fact that I'm maintaining the MSL [R&S] thread 
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On March 20 2009 07:25 motbob wrote:
But the "irrational escalation" link, along with the "dollar auction," isn't the same game as Swoopo is. In the "dollar auction" example, both the high bidder and the second highest bidder pay. That was the game tree that we first plotted out in class. It is true that the only way to beat that game is to not take part in it. But, again, Swoopo is not that game.
Oh, really?
http://www.metafilter.com/75306/The-Dollar-Auction-and-Swoopo
On March 20 2009 07:25 motbob wrote:
I am surprised that after I posted something that could have been a group effort that would benefit anyone who took part in it, I am now getting accusations that I am pushing the hard work onto other Team Liquid members. That is quite possibly the most insulting thing you could have accused me of. The final project for my class is a group project, so if I were to do this subject, I would have other members of the class to help me.
I did not accuse you of anything, merely asked a question (you never know...). I'm sorry if you took it that way and I apologize.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On March 20 2009 07:35 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 07:25 motbob wrote:
But the "irrational escalation" link, along with the "dollar auction," isn't the same game as Swoopo is. In the "dollar auction" example, both the high bidder and the second highest bidder pay. That was the game tree that we first plotted out in class. It is true that the only way to beat that game is to not take part in it. But, again, Swoopo is not that game.
Oh, really? http://www.metafilter.com/75306/The-Dollar-Auction-and-SwoopoShow nested quote +On March 20 2009 07:25 motbob wrote:
I am surprised that after I posted something that could have been a group effort that would benefit anyone who took part in it, I am now getting accusations that I am pushing the hard work onto other Team Liquid members. That is quite possibly the most insulting thing you could have accused me of. The final project for my class is a group project, so if I were to do this subject, I would have other members of the class to help me.
I did not accuse you of anything, merely asked a question (you never know...). I'm sorry if you took it that way and I apologize.
I probably overreacted. But LOL linking me to a blog post to prove your point. The blog post is wrong.
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On March 20 2009 08:00 Blunderbore wrote:
get a life
im inclined to slightly agree(with the stance, not the meaning..)
congrats on successfully advertising a scam on a popular international website
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What I don't understand is why anyone in their right mind would bid on these items when they are so far off the price they will realisitically go for. There is literally 0 chance that anyone will win the thing so early.
The only strategy that even remotely makes sense is to observe the prices that exact item usually goes for on that site, and start bidding then.
Maybe I just overestimate the reasoning of most people, but it seems like keeping the bids going at the earlier stages would be the biggest problem.
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Jesus, they must make a killing. Especially on those penny auctions - $0.75 for a $0.01 bid on a $1k+ item. Lot of suckers out there...
Here's how to beat the system:
Step 1. Place bid.
Step 2. DDoS site.
Step 3. Profit.
Step 4. Jail.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On March 20 2009 08:02 Duke wrote:
congrats on successfully advertising a scam on a popular international website
On March 20 2009 06:02 motbob wrote:There's this site called http://www.swoopo.com that is basically a scam site.
Yeah I sure am advertising that scam site. Gee I don't know how I could have done a better job of advertising this scam site. Hmmm I know, maybe I shouldn't have called it a fucking scam site.
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On March 20 2009 07:41 motbob wrote:
LOL linking me to a blog post to prove your point. The blog post is wrong.
I don't know. It was a link Wikipedia gave me from it's Swoopo entry... Check it yourself here.
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is awesome32280 Posts
On March 20 2009 08:28 R1CH wrote:
Jesus, they must make a killing. Especially on those penny auctions - $0.75 for a $0.01 bid on a $1k+ item. Lot of suckers out there...
Here's how to beat the system:
Step 1. Place bid.
Step 2. DDoS site.
Step 3. Profit.
Step 4. Jail.
loooooooool
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On March 20 2009 08:28 R1CH wrote:
Jesus, they must make a killing. Especially on those penny auctions - $0.75 for a $0.01 bid on a $1k+ item. Lot of suckers out there...
Here's how to beat the system:
Step 1. Place bid.
Step 2. DDoS site.
Step 3. Profit.
Step 4. Jail.
rofl, (can a DDoS shut down a site in the short amount of time before someone else bids though?)
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On March 20 2009 09:39 Abydos1 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 08:28 R1CH wrote:
Jesus, they must make a killing. Especially on those penny auctions - $0.75 for a $0.01 bid on a $1k+ item. Lot of suckers out there...
Here's how to beat the system:
Step 1. Place bid.
Step 2. DDoS site.
Step 3. Profit.
Step 4. Jail.
rofl, (can a DDoS shut down a site in the short amount of time before someone else bids though?)
Yes.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On March 20 2009 09:31 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 07:41 motbob wrote:
LOL linking me to a blog post to prove your point. The blog post is wrong. I don't know. It was a link Wikipedia gave me from it's Swoopo entry... Check it yourself here.
The link was in reference to the quote from Wikipedia that Swoopo had taken criticism from various blogs.
I guess it is unfair for me to pooh-pooh your link without explaining why it is wrong. Let me show why it doesn't apply to Swoopo, IMO.
In the Swoopo example, if you try to "snipe" the auction at what you perceive to be the very end, and someone outbids you, whoops, you just lost 75 cents. In the dollar auction example, if you try to snipe the auction and someone outbids you, oshit you just lost the price of the item and get nothing in return. That's why it might be worth it to find really good "snipe spots."
Swoopo is so interesting because there are all these idiots bidding when the price is really low, thinking "gosh I'm gonna get this item for sooo cheap I hope no one is thinking the same way that I am" but of course other idiots come in and outbid them.
The items invariably sell at ~ 1/3 the retail price, from what I've seen, but do those idiots care? No, they think "maybe this time it'll be different."
I'm trying to find a point where, empirically, bidding is not a stupid thing to do
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if it were me, I'd just write a script to visit all the auctions and collect the data instead of doing it manually, and then I'd do some regression analysis over the data to figure out the optimal strategy
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this site is fucking genius i wish i thought of it
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Don't you guys get it?
This is a scam to see if we would fall for beating another scam by joining this scam. That's the project he's doing.
FUCKING DOLLA DOLLA BILL YALL
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This seems like a really silly idea.
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I have won two 42" tvs and a ds lite on swoopo for $547.55 total.I bid about 15 times on each of the tvs. Got really lucky on the DS and only bid 1 time for $34.45. Ebayed one of the TVs for $750, which was actually pretty damn cheap for the guy who bought it.
Also, if you look at bidding histories you can totally get lucky on big items and get a nice HDTV for under $10.00
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I take it back, there is actually some possibility to the OP's idea. Just saw Prince of Persia (PC) go for 75 cents. True its not that great of a game, but at 75 cents which equals $3.75 in bids and another $.75 for a whopping total of $4.5 dollars profit for the cite, (i assume its a loss) and only $1.5-$3 for a new video game.
If it were possible to find items which also sold at such ridiculously low prices then it could become smart to try to beat the site. Still, these items would often be crap that no one else wants, or not worth it for the amount of man power it would take to analyze the site to find cheap good items that no one else has found. Its not very probably that one could work out a system to beat this site over time. Perhaps one or two items, but more than that is impossible because it counts on the fact that 0 other people will not be awake/looking at site.
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this site fucking sucks. It doesn't even update in real time, i just saw a bid for an apple laptop go down to like 9 seconds and everyone was bissing then all of a sudden it goes up to 59 minutes again lmao. stupid people
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Bosnia-Herzegovina1437 Posts
How exactly are you suppose to beat this? I see now way possible -_-.
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"The only winning move is... Not to play"
-Joshua, Wargames
=D
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Toshiba REGZA 42XV540U 42-Inch 1080p LCD HDTV $107.96 (instead of $1,399.99) (penny auction)
you do the math
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lol, and i just saw this
"If you're the second to last bidder we?ll refund your bids!"
adding some exitment is always cool! (especially creating the rampage of "ZOMG I CAN HAVE MY BIDS BACK, 2ND PLACE IS GREAT TOO, MUST BID INFINITE TIMES"
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On March 23 2009 04:36 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Toshiba REGZA 42XV540U 42-Inch 1080p LCD HDTV $107.96 (instead of $1,399.99) (penny auction)
you do the math
$8,097 in bids + $107.96 = $8,204.96 - 1,399.99 = $6,804 in profit for swoopo.
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On March 23 2009 04:47 GeneralStan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2009 04:36 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Toshiba REGZA 42XV540U 42-Inch 1080p LCD HDTV $107.96 (instead of $1,399.99) (penny auction)
you do the math
$8,097 in bids + $107.96 = $8,204.96 - 1,399.99 = $6,804 in profit for swoopo.
Holy shit, I'mma start a site like this myself, jesus.
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On March 23 2009 04:44 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
lol, and i just saw this
"If you're the second to last bidder we?ll refund your bids!"
adding some exitment is always cool! (especially creating the rampage of "ZOMG I CAN HAVE MY BIDS BACK, 2ND PLACE IS GREAT TOO, MUST BID INFINITE TIMES"
hahaah
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it reminds me of the poker sites that also runs casinos
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On March 20 2009 12:25 Bosu wrote:
I have won two 42" tvs and a ds lite on swoopo for $547.55 total.I bid about 15 times on each of the tvs. Got really lucky on the DS and only bid 1 time for $34.45. Ebayed one of the TVs for $750, which was actually pretty damn cheap for the guy who bought it.
Also, if you look at bidding histories you can totally get lucky on big items and get a nice HDTV for under $10.00
proof? link the ebay history or something
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On March 23 2009 04:53 Adeny wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2009 04:47 GeneralStan wrote:On March 23 2009 04:36 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Toshiba REGZA 42XV540U 42-Inch 1080p LCD HDTV $107.96 (instead of $1,399.99) (penny auction)
you do the math
$8,097 in bids + $107.96 = $8,204.96 - 1,399.99 = $6,804 in profit for swoopo. Holy shit, I'mma start a site like this myself, jesus.
I'll help 
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On March 20 2009 07:13 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 06:51 motbob wrote:
Even if it is impossible to beat them, I would still like to get data on the site. What I really don't get, is why are you asking this of us? I mean, can't you really get some people from your classes to go with it? TeamLiquid is known for beating the internet, but only when it's about competition and fun. Gathering boring data is neither (especially that even TL can't "beat" it, ffs, you don't even have to do anything, just watch and write down numbers...). Tell me the truth. Is this "project" a homework of yours and you need somene to do all the hard work for you? And why won't you just read some more about it first? Show nested quote +
... frequently seen when parties engage in a bidding war; the bidders can end up paying much more than the object is worth to justify the initial expenses associated with bidding (such as research), as well as part of a competitive instinct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_escalationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auctionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costThe only way to beat it is to not take part in it.
well project is still hwk =.=
but that aside wat exactly do u mean by add time? does that mean if i bid the end time for the auction gets incremented or does it mean if there's say like 15 sec left and i bid then i "add" the time and make it 0 sec?
On March 20 2009 08:28 R1CH wrote:
Jesus, they must make a killing. Especially on those penny auctions - $0.75 for a $0.01 bid on a $1k+ item. Lot of suckers out there...
Here's how to beat the system:
Step 1. Place bid.
Step 2. DDoS site.
Step 3. Profit.
Step 4. Jail.
how would they trace u? they'll probably be like sry we shut down the site all bids will resume at blah time at the last place they were in...
On March 20 2009 12:42 randombum wrote:
I take it back, there is actually some possibility to the OP's idea. Just saw Prince of Persia (PC) go for 75 cents. True its not that great of a game, but at 75 cents which equals $3.75 in bids and another $.75 for a whopping total of $4.5 dollars profit for the cite, (i assume its a loss) and only $1.5-$3 for a new video game.
If it were possible to find items which also sold at such ridiculously low prices then it could become smart to try to beat the site. Still, these items would often be crap that no one else wants, or not worth it for the amount of man power it would take to analyze the site to find cheap good items that no one else has found. Its not very probably that one could work out a system to beat this site over time. Perhaps one or two items, but more than that is impossible because it counts on the fact that 0 other people will not be awake/looking at site.
see the thing about that is that they could have posted that item w/o it ever having been up there for bid... just to lure in ppl... u noe kind of like wat walmart does? (although in walmart's case they actually do offer u their cheap item, it's just that most ppl end up buying the better but overly priced items)
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EPT
