NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On April 21 2024 14:01 Nezgar wrote: I am curious about the sources for the "only 20 pilots of which only 6-8 pass the language barrier test" though. Commercial pilots need to speak and understand enough English to communicate with different flight control personnel including tower control and similar roles. The claim that only 6-8 pilots in all of Ukraine can speak sufficient English to communicate like that seems a little outlandish.
The RAF began delivering flying and English language training in August as part of the UK contribution to the international Air Capability Coalition for Ukraine, which will see allies and partners working together to bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities.
The group was formed of six experienced Ukrainian combat fighter pilots who received aviation-specific English language training to increase their ability to engage with coalition training and support.
I've read somewhere that out of the UA air force very few pilots are eligible to even begin the training for F-16s. Not just because of language but also lack of experience in flying fighter jets in general. Most don't really have the required basic training for fighter pilots and nowhere close to minimum hours flown required due to poor training standards and quality in the UA.
Thank you for linking the source, appreciate that. The only thing I could find in that though was that the UK is training 6 right now with a further 10 in earlier stages. Nowhere does it mention that there is a serious lack of potential pilots, nor that the 6 the UK is training now are the only ones being trained in basic flying lessons. It does mention further training efforts on the F-16 by Denmark, Netherlands and the US though. No doubt that Ukraine has lost a lot of skilled pilots. I'm curious how that is developing and what news we can expect going forward. But they are probably keeping the numbers of pilots trained and their progress close to the chest.
I wanted to find the other sources but I go through so much various materials that it's sometimes hard to backtrack to the right place Following links, doing cross-referencing and trying to fact check as much as I can at the same time etc. etc. I get confused and lost myself sometimes when I go too far down the rabbit hole and can't even remember why I got there in the first place.
On April 21 2024 14:01 Nezgar wrote: I am curious about the sources for the "only 20 pilots of which only 6-8 pass the language barrier test" though. Commercial pilots need to speak and understand enough English to communicate with different flight control personnel including tower control and similar roles. The claim that only 6-8 pilots in all of Ukraine can speak sufficient English to communicate like that seems a little outlandish.
I imagine the difference between commercial airlines and fighter jets is somewhat akin to driving the kids to school with the family car and driving a Formula 1 race car on a race track
On April 21 2024 14:01 Nezgar wrote: I am curious about the sources for the "only 20 pilots of which only 6-8 pass the language barrier test" though. Commercial pilots need to speak and understand enough English to communicate with different flight control personnel including tower control and similar roles. The claim that only 6-8 pilots in all of Ukraine can speak sufficient English to communicate like that seems a little outlandish.
I imagine the difference between commercial airlines and fighter jets is somewhat akin to driving the kids to school with the family car and driving a Formula 1 race car on a race track
It's the difference between learning enough of a language to order at a restaurant in a foreign country, vs learning enough to take a bachelors level class in a foreign language. Phrasing for commercial aviation is rigid, and it's far easier to learn the phrase/responses if you know what you're expecting to hear from the other party. It's much harder if what the other person is saying is in a technical field
According to Novaya Gazeta, the rumors about Kadyrov's illness were (partly) true. He was allegedly diagnosed with pancreatic necrosis, which is terminal. I wonder how this will affect the war. Could there be a civil war in Chechnya or has Kadyrov managed to kill all potential opposition?
And a good video explaining why Ukraine is targeting the Russian refineries.
I did not find that first video convincing at all. It starts with citing a few solid sources but soon after abandons all notions of providing sources and takes place entirely in the creator of the video's mind. There are so many details that they take straight from Russian propaganda and pretend like that is accurate. And then it derails into an incredibly long "If this happens, then this might happen next and if that happens next, then this might be the step after that" and so forth. And a lot of those steps aren't reasonable at all. Some of it delves into beginner level of wargaming that has nothing to do with reality. They previous predicted such amazing things as France going to war with Russia to protect their African colonies. You just have to look at that content creator's list of recent videos and the amount of predictions that they got horribly wrong. Every other of their videos sounds like something major is happening any second now and you have to realize that a lot of that is sensationalistic clickbait - because that generates views and nothing else matters. He predicted Russia to collapse and then shortly after made a video of why Russia is not collapsing while at the same time being ignorant of how economies at war actually work and why we are seeing the things we are seeing. He made a video in the middle of 2023 that peddles amazing analytics of comparing the 2.1% economic decline in Russia to the 29.1% decline in Ukraine at the end of 2022, concluded that the economic struggle between Russia and the West has come to a stalemate as a result of that and then went on with that as his baseline for all further assumptions. If you want some baseline information on some of the topics his videos touch upon, don't care too much about details and the credibility of the claims, and then also ignore the predictions made, the videos might be entertaining to watch. But they are horrible at predicting future events of explaining complicated concepts with any kind of credibility.
And a good video explaining why Ukraine is targeting the Russian refineries.
I did not find that first video convincing at all. It starts with citing a few solid sources but soon after abandons all notions of providing sources and takes place entirely in the creator of the video's mind. There are so many details that they take straight from Russian propaganda and pretend like that is accurate. And then it derails into an incredibly long "If this happens, then this might happen next and if that happens next, then this might be the step after that" and so forth. And a lot of those steps aren't reasonable at all. Some of it delves into beginner level of wargaming that has nothing to do with reality. They previous predicted such amazing things as France going to war with Russia to protect their African colonies. You just have to look at that content creator's list of recent videos and the amount of predictions that they got horribly wrong. Every other of their videos sounds like something major is happening any second now and you have to realize that a lot of that is sensationalistic clickbait - because that generates views and nothing else matters. He predicted Russia to collapse and then shortly after made a video of why Russia is not collapsing while at the same time being ignorant of how economies at war actually work and why we are seeing the things we are seeing. He made a video in the middle of 2023 that peddles amazing analytics of comparing the 2.1% economic decline in Russia to the 29.1% decline in Ukraine at the end of 2022, concluded that the economic struggle between Russia and the West has come to a stalemate as a result of that and then went on with that as his baseline for all further assumptions. If you want some baseline information on some of the topics his videos touch upon, don't care too much about details and the credibility of the claims, and then also ignore the predictions made, the videos might be entertaining to watch. But they are horrible at predicting future events of explaining complicated concepts with any kind of credibility.
The first video I posted is entertaining because of the "what if" scenarios and I think it isn't wrong to entertain the idea of what would be the next steps for Russia if they win in Ukraine. Good mental exercise. But yeah, the video seems to be wrong on a few topics and is more in the realm of speculation rather than hard facts.
I think it's worth entertaining the idea, even though it's pretty much impossible to actually predict anything long term because of the sheer number of factors involved in such conflict.
On April 25 2024 03:14 JimmiC wrote: Timur Ivanov was arrested for bribery, he was Russia's deputy defense minister. The article talks about how the bribe was all known and expected that he would only be arrested like this if it was straight up treason. He apparently was also snapping up Putin's Chef's assets and a Shoigu ally.
Things aren't looking good in the east. Russians made a breakthrough and are advancing rapidly. The only good news is that Ukrainians managed to take back one of the islands at the Dnipro river which should enable them to expand their bridgehead south of Kherson.
Words like "breakthrough" and "rapidly" are a bit of a sterach here. Taking 20 square km in 2 weeks is not going to land them Donetsk province under 5 years.
Unless Ukrainian army really is nearing exhaustion which is doubtful.
That isn’t great math because it projects that every km is as hard to take as the fortified front lines. I don’t think that Ukraine are going to lose any time soon but I don’t like bad projections.
On April 30 2024 00:30 pmp10 wrote: Unless Ukrainian army really is nearing exhaustion which is doubtful.
Rumours about one or another army being near exhaustion are going strong for at least year now, it seems. As someone said, it's one of those things where you don't know if it's true until it actually happens, and then it might lead to a domino effect. No side will ever agree to confirm such rumours, neither armies/states themselves nor their supporters. It will (probably) just happen one day.
On April 30 2024 00:30 pmp10 wrote: Words like "breakthrough" and "rapidly" are a bit of a sterach here. Taking 20 square km in 2 weeks is not going to land them Donetsk province under 5 years.
Unless Ukrainian army really is nearing exhaustion which is doubtful.
Here's a timelapse of the territorial changes within just the Avdeevka sector over the last few months. Ochereteno which came under Russian control last week is at a dominating height over the surrounding areas and was the (logistical) backbone of the Ukrainian defense at Avdeevka. Its the kind of settlement both sides would have been pissing blood over for months last year. Yet within 10 days the Russians have cleared Ochereteno, Novobahmutovka, Soloviove, Berdychi which has been heavily fortified since December, Semenkove, as well as various reports coming out of Novokalynove and Keramik. And this is only the Avdeevka sector.
In the context of attritional warfare the exchange of territory doesn't really mean that much so much as the movement from more defendable to less defendable and ready positions.
On April 30 2024 00:30 pmp10 wrote: Words like "breakthrough" and "rapidly" are a bit of a sterach here. Taking 20 square km in 2 weeks is not going to land them Donetsk province under 5 years.
Unless Ukrainian army really is nearing exhaustion which is doubtful.
20km in 2 weeks is pretty substantial if you consider it took them 2 years to advance 14km previously...
According to this it is a local breakthrough but it's not that bad for now.
EPT
Following links, doing cross-referencing and trying to fact check as much as I can at the same time etc. etc. I get confused and lost myself sometimes when I go too far down the rabbit hole and can't even remember why I got there in the first place.
