EPTInteresting that he doesn't want to wait until US elections are decided.
But then it's not like Ukraine is ready to give-up anyway.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 636
| Forum Index > General Forum |
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
|
pmp10
3396 Posts
Interesting that he doesn't want to wait until US elections are decided. But then it's not like Ukraine is ready to give-up anyway. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On December 24 2023 01:32 pmp10 wrote: Isn't talking about a cease fire just buying time for the US elections?According to NYT Putin has been signaling openness to cease-fire talks. Interesting that he doesn't want to wait until US elections are decided. But then it's not like Ukraine is ready to give-up anyway. | ||
KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On December 24 2023 01:32 pmp10 wrote: According to NYT Putin has been signaling openness to cease-fire talks. Interesting that he doesn't want to wait until US elections are decided. But then it's not like Ukraine is ready to give-up anyway. He hasn’t. He maintains his maximalist war goals. His discussion of a ceasefire is just a willingness to accept Ukraine’s surrender. No return of the annexed land. No reparations. No return of children. | ||
|
Sent.
Poland9299 Posts
I hope the news about F-16 transfers will break that negative information wave. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On December 24 2023 04:07 Sent. wrote: those F-16s are not going to do anything until the summer since the pilots are still being trainedI'm not liking the recent Western coverage of the war. Each negative article is fine on their own but together they're creating a somewhat consistent image of corrupt and inefficient Ukraine looking incapable of making significant progress against Russia which totally is no longer a serious threat to the West and Ukraine (we have to pretend South-eastern Ukraine is not Ukraine, right? /s). This is wrong. Russia is still an active threat that needs to be neutralized. I hope the news about F-16 transfers will break that negative information wave. | ||
|
KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On December 24 2023 04:14 Gorsameth wrote: those F-16s are not going to do anything until the summer since the pilots are still being trained It depends. Simply flying high and acting as a radar sensor is doing something. They’re unlikely to ever be involved in direct attacks over Russian anti air because Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity to run SEAD assaults. We’ll see a gradual increase in usage with the eventual goal of suppression of Russian aircraft through long range air to air target acquisition and fire and as a platform for cruise missiles. | ||
|
ZeroByte13
796 Posts
But what I see in this thread is that it has been like ~10x less active for some time now. Which, I guess, means there are few noteworthy events happening? I.e. no significant advances from either side, no new contracts for crucial equipment / ammo, etc.? I'm sorry if this sounds super-ignorant - it might very well be so - but from outside perspective it feels more and more like a semi-frozen conflict. But at the same time it's not true, right? There are still huge losses from both sides? | ||
|
KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On December 24 2023 05:42 ZeroByte13 wrote: I am not that knowledgeable about current situation in general, and I don't follow many other information sources outside of this thread. But what I see in this thread is that it has been like ~10x less active for some time now. Which, I guess, means there are few noteworthy events happening? I.e. no significant advances from either side, no new contracts for crucial equipment / ammo, etc.? I'm sorry if this sounds super-ignorant - it might very well be so - but from outside perspective it feels more and more like a semi-frozen conflict. But at the same time it's not true, right? There are still huge losses from both sides? Russian losses are higher than they’ve been since the start of the war and the catastrophic push on Kyiv. Over a thousand each day for a month. Ukraine is mostly defending because you don’t interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake. Meanwhile Russia is going allin on taking some kind of objective before the elections. They’re also trying to convey limitless resources by spending men and materiel wastefully as a way of reducing morale and western belief in a victory. That said, Ukraine has been pushing across the Dnipro river to stretch Russian logistics. They’re taking ground in small battles there where the comparatively weaker defences allow for small scale engagements. Russia had been relying on glide bombs to suppress the bridgehead but two days ago the Ukrainians moved up a patriot launchers and shot down 3 $40,000,000 Russian bombers in a single salvo. It’s been a very bad month for Russia. They’ve not taken any of their objectives and gave lost an incomprehensible amount of men and equipment. It’s not sustainable, the Soviet legacy only runs so deep, eventually they’ll be constrained by new production bottlenecks. That said, it’s not been a great month for Ukraine, despite holding the line and slaughtering Russians. They’re dependent on western aid, particularly US aid, and the Russian backed GOP are stabbing them in the back. Their resources are also not unlimited. A lot will depend on whether Europe can resume manufacturing equipment and whether the voters punish the GOP. | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17744 Posts
Ukrainians are switching to defensive operations due to weather. Rotating their elite units to the back and conducting recruitment and training for next year. They're also investing heavily in bulking up their defensive positions and drone production and development (drones with chainsaws LOL). I guess they're hoping that if the Russians continue their offensive during the winter they'll be able to incur heavier losses on them and be in a better position next year, considering they have manpower parity and recent losses in Avdiivka were at a ratio of 1:7 this could be a viable strategy. | ||
|
zeo
Serbia6342 Posts
On December 24 2023 05:53 KwarK wrote: Russian losses are higher than they’ve been since the start of the war and the catastrophic push on Kyiv. Over a thousand each day for a month. Ukraine is mostly defending because you don’t interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake. Meanwhile Russia is going allin on taking some kind of objective before the elections. They’re also trying to convey limitless resources by spending men and materiel wastefully as a way of reducing morale and western belief in a victory. That said, Ukraine has been pushing across the Dnipro river to stretch Russian logistics. They’re taking ground in small battles there where the comparatively weaker defences allow for small scale engagements. Russia had been relying on glide bombs to suppress the bridgehead but two days ago the Ukrainians moved up a patriot launchers and shot down 3 $40,000,000 Russian bombers in a single salvo. It’s been a very bad month for Russia. They’ve not taken any of their objectives and gave lost an incomprehensible amount of men and equipment. It’s not sustainable, the Soviet legacy only runs so deep, eventually they’ll be constrained by new production bottlenecks. That said, it’s not been a great month for Ukraine, despite holding the line and slaughtering Russians. They’re dependent on western aid, particularly US aid, and the Russian backed GOP are stabbing them in the back. Their resources are also not unlimited. A lot will depend on whether Europe can resume manufacturing equipment and whether the voters punish the GOP. This reads like a mix between a statement by North Korean media and a Baghdad Bob press release His pronouncements included claims that American soldiers were committing suicide "by the hundreds" outside the city, and denial that there were any American tanks in Baghdad, when in fact they were only several hundred meters away from the press conference where he was speaking and the combat sounds of nearing American troops could already be heard in the background - Classic. | ||
|
Excludos
Norway8257 Posts
On December 24 2023 05:42 ZeroByte13 wrote: I am not that knowledgeable about current situation in general, and I don't follow many other information sources outside of this thread. But what I see in this thread is that it has been like ~10x less active for some time now. Which, I guess, means there are few noteworthy events happening? I.e. no significant advances from either side, no new contracts for crucial equipment / ammo, etc.? I'm sorry if this sounds super-ignorant - it might very well be so - but from outside perspective it feels more and more like a semi-frozen conflict. But at the same time it's not true, right? There are still huge losses from both sides? Yes and no. A lot is happening on the macro level. Russia continues to take massive losses every day (It's been hovering at around 1000 pr day for a bit now), whilst politics are raging about how much support Ukraine should continue to get, and what kind. Countries faffing back and forth trying to further their own agenda. At the end of the day tho, it's unlikely that Ukraine isn't going to continue to be supported for the foreseeable future. The potential big dent that could happen here would be if Putin's lackey Mr. Trump got elected. Meanwhile, Putin has announced he's going to recruit another 400k soldiers without mobilization... Somehow. On the micro level, and the reason this thread has dried up a bit, is that whilst Russia continues to take huge losses, there's little to no change in territory. Ukraine has firmly dug themselves in for the winter, and rotated a lot of their seasoned soldiers back to train new recruits. As Russia is proving every day, trying to advance in the snow is just not a winnable scenario, so why even bother? Whether we are going to see a new "spring counter attack" like last year remains to be seen, but it's incredibly unlikely to be as ballsy as the previous one, seeing as how it didn't really work the way they had hoped. In the summer, we're also going to be seeing F16s in the air over Ukraine, so if there's going to be some kind of large push happening, it would be then | ||
|
KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On December 26 2023 02:42 zeo wrote: This reads like a mix between a statement by North Korean media and a Baghdad Bob press release His pronouncements included claims that American soldiers were committing suicide "by the hundreds" outside the city, and denial that there were any American tanks in Baghdad, when in fact they were only several hundred meters away from the press conference where he was speaking and the combat sounds of nearing American troops could already be heard in the background - Classic. You’re right, Russia has actually taken Kyiv and Madrid. It’s just media spin that they’re still bashing their head against Avdiivka. | ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
| ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed that the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk, docked at Feodosia in occupied Crimea, had been "damaged" by a Ukrainian missile strike in the early hours of Dec. 26, in a statement reported by the Russian state-run media outlet TASS. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk announced that the ship had been struck earlier on Dec. 26, but implied it was destroyed, not damaged, which appears to be backed by the videos from the scene. "And the fleet of Russia is getting smaller and smaller," he said. "This time, the large landing ship Novocherkassk...Thanks to the Air Force pilots and everyone involved!" Oleschchuk also shared a video of a large explosion, implied to be related to the strike on the Novocherkassk. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said to RFE/RL that the ship had been struck by more than one cruise missile. He noted that Ukraine possesses both Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles provided by the U.K. and France, which have the capability of striking occupied Crimea. Storm Shadow missiles were used in an attack in September on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. Ihnat added that the size of the explosion indicated that something significant had exploded due to the strikes, likely ammunition. U.K. Defense Minister Grant Shapps weighed in on the news, saying, "This latest destruction of (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin's navy demonstrates that those who believe there's a stalemate in the Ukraine war are wrong! They haven't noticed that over the past four months, 20% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed." At around 3 a.m. local time, Crimean Telegram channels reported explosions in the area of Feodosia in eastern Crimea. The Telegram channels claimed that a ship with Iranian ammunition was reportedly blown up and a fire broke out in the port. According to Russian-affiliated media, residents reported hearing loud bangs, and seeing plumes of smoke, and traffic on the Crimean bridge was blocked. Sergey Aksyonov, the head of Russian occupation authorities in Crimea, said that one person had been killed in the attack, and two others were injured. Several nearby buildings were also damaged. Russian media reported that Putin was informed of the "damage" to the ship. Russian proxy authorities later revised the number of injured to four. The Novocherkassk is a mid-size vessel with a length of almost 113 meters, designed for amphibious landings, and can carry armored vehicles, according to a U.S. military factsheet cited by CNN. It has a crew of 87 and can host almost 240 personnel. Ukraine's General Staff said the ship had previously been damaged by a strike near the Ukrainian port city of Berdiansk in March 2022. Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russia's Black Sea fleet since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, including the sinking of the flagship cruiser Moskva in April 2022 and a devastating missile attack on the fleet's headquarters in occupied Crimea that reportedly killed more than 30 officers. U.K. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said in October that Ukraine's successful attacks had led to a "functional defeat" of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted in October that Ukraine would soon have full fire control over occupied Crimea, citing the widespread failure of Russian air defenses in the peninsula. He also noted that Russia's Black Sea Fleet has suffered such significant losses that a new naval base is planned to open in Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied region of Georgia located on the Black Sea, in order to move ships "as far as possible from Ukrainian missiles and naval drones." In the report confirming the damage to the Novocherkassk, the Russian Defense Ministry also claimed that two Ukrainian SU-24 fighter jets were shot down 125 kilometers northeast of Mykolaiv. There was no evidence provided to support the assertion. In comments to RFE/RL, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat denied that the fighter jets were shot down. Source | ||
|
sertas
Sweden890 Posts
Compare to patriot that just shoots down evrething russia has with no problems. | ||
|
KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On December 26 2023 23:45 sertas wrote: I don't understand how russian anti air can be so bad that storm shadow (cruise missile) just flies all over crimea that is full with s300 , s400, and many other anti air systems. Compare to patriot that just shoots down evrething russia has with no problems. They combine it with a mixture of other missiles for decoys and Russian jets. Cruise missiles are essentially single use drone jets which makes them hard to distinguish on radar. We’ve seen countless incidents of Russian air defence misidentifying Russian jets as hostile cruise missiles and shooting them down. That has led to them being more cautious, especially when a friendly air mission is scheduled. Ukraine waits for Russia to take off and then fires. Russia has to identify and shoot down the cruise missiles in a sky with both decoys and friendlies in it. It’s not the easiest task. | ||
|
Excludos
Norway8257 Posts
On December 26 2023 23:45 sertas wrote: I don't understand how russian anti air can be so bad that storm shadow (cruise missile) just flies all over crimea that is full with s300 , s400, and many other anti air systems. Compare to patriot that just shoots down evrething russia has with no problems. This didn't happen in one day. Ukraine have been testing air defences throughout Crimea and the surrounding area for half a year now, sometimes sacrificing dozens of missiles and drones in the process. What you're seeing here isn't necessarily "Russian air defence is shit lol", but more the result of exploiting weaknesses in the system through numerous trial and errors, as well as slowly chipping away at the air defences by taking out key systems. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
| ||
|
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
| ||
|
sertas
Sweden890 Posts
| ||
| ||
