EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 638
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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KwarK
United States44203 Posts
On January 03 2024 04:52 Ardias wrote: You realize that interest rate and inflation rate are values that are not synonymous, and in fact, oppose each other, as increase of interest rate is a tool to slow down the inflation rate growth? Yes, I do. Do you? Interest rates may slow inflation but the correlation is clear. There is a high interest rate because of the rapid devaluation of the currency. If I was positing that the house was on fire because a red truck pulled up and started dousing it with water presumably you’d be here going “do you know that water actually opposes fire”. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5847 Posts
On January 03 2024 02:58 KwarK wrote: The Moscow exchange isn’t the best example, given it appears to be denominated in rubles, a currency experiencing extremely high inflation (16% interest as of Dec 23). A company that made nothing and simply sat on a pile of gold would show dramatic returns on investment under that metric. The imports metric likely has the same issue. Rubles up doesn’t mean imports up or spending up. Extremely high inflation also drives demand as people seek to liquidate any cash they have on hand at the earliest possible opportunity. Overall the picture is likely a lot more complicated than any of us are able to unpack here and is probably best left to professional economists. However I am quite skeptical of any evidence that attempts to paint a positive picture because it simply doesn’t pass the smell test. We know that Russia is engaged in an expensive and destructive war and that it has seen an exodus of both workers and foreign capital. We know that it is under sanctions and that it has lost access to key export markets. We know that the central bank has hiked interest rates to 16% in an attempt to prevent domestic capital flight. The idea that Russia is richer than ever simply doesn’t reconcile with the increasing share of the national output being used as target practice by Ukraine. Every shell fired and mine laid is stolen from the productive labour of the Russian people. Nothing says "we're doing fine" like stopping publishing all key economic indicators and sending a journalist investigating the impact of sanctions to jail. ;-) | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2846 Posts
It's not very difficult to see that war is bad for the economy for everyone involved, and most countries not involved to. I guess the US is making bank as an exception. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17800 Posts
On January 03 2024 04:52 Ardias wrote: You realize that interest rate and inflation rate are values that are not synonymous, and in fact, oppose each other, as increase of interest rate is a tool to slow down the inflation rate growth? And here is IMF assessment of current inflation in the countries of the world: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/VEN Russian inflation rate is 6,3%. Not too great, but also in line with some EU countries like Romania (5,8%), Poland (6,4%) and Hungary (6,8%). And quite far from, let's say, Turkey with 62,5%. Russian inflation rate was stated as 2.3% in April. Now it's over 6% despite interest rates being increased 5 times in the past 5 months. This doesn't look that good to me... In comparison in Poland inflation in April was sitting at nearly 15%, now it's at just above 6%. The big difference here is that to combat this interest rates were increased from 0 to 6.75% and now they have been lowered to 5.75% so both inflation and interest rates are trading down, which is a sign of economy recovering after a crisis. In Russia both inflation and interest rates are trending up so the tool to stop inflation (interest rates) doesn't seem to be working, or if it is working then inflation must be really bad to still be rising with such high interest rates. Imports in the Federal Customs Service report were given in dollars. 180 billion USD in Jan-Sep 2022 vs 213 billion USD in Jan-Sep 2023. This is kinda meaningless without getting detailed info on what was imported. In any case, such a big increase in imports might also indicate that there's a lack of something and it has to be sourced from the outside. Yeah, except its the other way around, and huge overall interest rates also give huge interest rates on deposits, which prompt people to save money on them. 11-12% interest for 0,5-1 year deposit is a regular thing in Russia now, and people are actually saving money there, instead of spending them. If people keep their money in the bank then they're not buying anything/investing and the economy slows down. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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zeo
Serbia6343 Posts
DNIPRO, Ukraine -- The number of heavily wounded soldiers being treated at one of Ukraine's largest trauma hospitals has risen by as much as 30% in the past few weeks, according to the chief doctor there. Dr. Sergii Ryzhenko told ABC News that the Mechnikov Hospital in the city of Dnipro, a few hours' drive from the fighting, is now receiving between 40 and 100 seriously wounded men each day, with his team performing between 50 and 100 surgical operations in any 24-hour period. Many of those procedures are amputations, he said. ---------------- The Ukrainian government has not released official figures for the total number of soldiers who have been killed or wounded since Russia launched its full-scale invasion nearly two years ago. However, anecdotal evidence of mounting Ukrainian casualties in the war was reinforced by claims made on Ukrainian television this weekend by the country's former prosecutor general. Yuriy Lutsenko claimed that around 30,000 Ukrainian troops are now being killed or badly wounded per month and that the total casualty toll for wounded and killed in the war is around 500,000. The Ukrainian government is soon expected to announce a fresh wave of military mobilization, and Lutsenko argued that casualty figures should now be published in order to convey the seriousness of the situation to the Ukrainian public. He said it would help explain why a large number of fresh recruits are needed abcnews source I didnt quote the whole article here but I recommend reading it, very interesting. This is in line with all of the news comming in from the front the past few weeks, Ukrainian government forces being pushed back on basically all directions. They are far from collapsing though with the new waves of mobilizations, but how many more months they can hang on with these losses remains to be seen. At some point the costs of holding the line rise exponentially and it all snaps. Even if the wheels come off I doubt the Russians will go for big arrow depth penetrations like we saw at the beggining. They are pressing with limited forces but are losing a bunch of equipment too. More likely than not that all of this will come to an end in 2024 but then again its also been said about 2022 and 2023. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17800 Posts
Yuriy Lutsenko claimed that around 30,000 Ukrainian troops are now being killed or badly wounded per month and that the total casualty toll for wounded and killed in the war is around 500,000. Are you sure those numbers are for the Ukrainian side? Last reports for Ukraine were 100-300 people lost every day, 30k/month would make it 3-10x higher. Russians were losing 800+ people/day. And I assume the 500k number is for both sides since recent estimates put it around 150k for UA and 300k for RU (killed and wounded total for the war). | ||
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zeo
Serbia6343 Posts
On January 10 2024 22:31 Manit0u wrote: Are you sure those numbers are for the Ukrainian side? Last reports for Ukraine were 100-300 people lost every day, 30k/month would make it 3-10x higher. Russians were losing 800+ people/day. And I assume the 500k number is for both sides since recent estimates put it around 150k for UA and 300k for RU (killed and wounded total for the war). The thing about reports is that they depend a lot on who is making them. The article above is quoting the chief doctor at a Ukrainian hospital that says 40-100 seriously wounded come in each day to that one hospital. How many hospitals/morgues recieve heavily wounded or dead soldiers and in what quantities, we really don't know all that information is under strict cencorship. Any estimates are just that, estimates and guesswork. The numbers vary wildly depending on who is comming up with them. Though I think on the small scale when a soldier says his unit lost 5 men, or a truck driver says he transports 200 bodies a month those numbers are more in line with the truth because they are talking about the bodies of their own countrymen in the end. Edit: that said, just because there are losses on one part of the front doesnt mean that there are that many losses on another part. Or that they are transported in the same way or the procedures are the same. But looking at the numbers on the small scale over time usually gives clues on what is happening there at least | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17800 Posts
Bradley vs T-90M duel around Avdiivka. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8272 Posts
On January 13 2024 22:12 Manit0u wrote: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1745933354845815034?s=20 Bradley vs T-90M duel around Avdiivka. Took me a bit to see wtf was going on there. T90M on the left side of the screen, while the Bradley is on the right side and eventually comes driving down to the south of the screen. Excellent use of mobility by that Bradley to make up for the lack of firepower. It really shouldn't be a match against a T90M, but managed to run around the back and pummel it until the turret locked up spinning around It's rare to see these types of close quarters "tank" battles (even if the Bradley isn't really a tank in the first place, but an an IFV, with much much less protection and firepower) | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2846 Posts
On January 13 2024 22:35 Excludos wrote: Took me a bit to see wtf was going on there. T90M on the left side of the screen, while the Bradley is on the right side and eventually comes driving down to the south of the screen. Excellent use of mobility by that Bradley to make up for the lack of firepower. It really shouldn't be a match against a T90M, but managed to run around the back and pummel it until the turret locked up spinning around It's rare to see these types of close quarters "tank" battles (even if the Bradley isn't really a tank in the first place, but an an IFV, with much much less protection and firepower) 2 Bradlys. The first one runs into the tank, puts a couple of rounds in it and takes of to the right. Seems to get an angle between some houses on the way out. Tank pops smoke. Second Bradley meets up with the first that leaves, drives back and just hammers the tank. It pops smoke again, doesn't help. Gets hit again and the Bradly leaves. Crew probably dead or injured from spalling since turret starts spinning and the tank tries to drive away (someone is steering) but hits a tree and stops. Edit: crew not dead (in tank at least). Already a video of an FPV hitting it and 3 people bail out. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8272 Posts
On January 14 2024 00:45 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: 2 Bradlys. The first one runs into the tank, puts a couple of rounds in it and takes of to the right. Seems to get an angle between some houses on the way out. Tank pops smoke. Second Bradley meets up with the first that leaves, drives back and just hammers the tank. It pops smoke again, doesn't help. Gets hit again and the Bradly leaves. Crew probably dead or injured from spalling since turret starts spinning and the tank tries to drive away (someone is steering) but hits a tree and stops. Edit: crew not dead (in tank at least). Already a video of an FPV hitting it and 3 people bail out. You're right, I wasn't 100% sure what the first thing was, but judging by the fire it's outputting, it's likely a Bradley as well indeed | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
From what I can tell, North Korea and Iran together are allowing Russia to really up their pressure and it now appears Ukraine is pretty screwed long-term. But of course that is all based on “current levels of western support” vs “current levels of eastern support” for Ukraine and Russia respectively. Here’s why I am not worried: even if we approach this issue strictly selfishly, NATO would suffer immensely for Ukraine to actually crumble. Even if we assume Ukrainian lives are zero value to the west, IMO Ukraine losing is something NATO would put boots on the ground to prevent because of the incredible risk associated with Ukraine being absorbed into Russia. So my 2 cents is that even in the worst of scenarios, “the west” would at one point step in and we’d have actual US Air Force presence and whatnot and it would all be fine. The downside to Ukraine losing is too big even if we assume it’s only a matter of land and all the humans have zero value. Question 1: does anyone think I’m wrong about this? I feel like even just Poland or other nearby nations would go full ass into war before letting Ukraine lose because it’s too big of a risk for them. Question 2: At what point do people think NATO or other nations take the gloves off and actually actively participate. Germany is doing a lot. But this is not Germany mobilizing their army and doing everything they can. This is still aid. I’m talking full ass. Does anyone have any perspectives on what the red line is where the west just hops right in themselves? | ||
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KwarK
United States44203 Posts
Iran and NK don’t materially move the needle. They help, but they don’t add a significant amount to the already significant combat power of the USSR legacy. Nobody goes “Russia has committed a million men and a thousand tanks and to make matters worse they’re equipped with North Korean missiles”. Trump would let Ukraine lose. Trump wants Ukraine to lose. Trump actually signed a piece of paper typed up by his bagman (the man who moves his bags) that pulled the US army out of Europe. It wasn’t followed because the deep state thought that it was a forgery and refused to carry it out. For some reason the joint chiefs and national security adviser thought that if the US was abandoning Europe they’d know about it. Direct participation of the US Air Force is completely off the table from Biden too, and from anyone else if done without Biden’s support. It’s a fantasy. I don’t think it would immediately cause a nuclear exchange the way that many do, but it would dramatically escalate things in a way that Biden has shown no desire to do so. They’d much rather Ukraine lose than risk that. Western involvement is still scaling up. F-16s are a significant addition. The recent UK commitment is significant. The ammo production is increasing. There’s no red line they’re waiting to be crossed. They’re going to slowly increase support in ways that don’t disrupt their economies or individual capabilities too much. Basically disagree with everything you said. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9324 Posts
On January 14 2024 08:45 Mohdoo wrote: I haven’t been following this as closely as I had been, so forgive me. From what I can tell, North Korea and Iran together are allowing Russia to really up their pressure and it now appears Ukraine is pretty screwed long-term. But of course that is all based on “current levels of western support” vs “current levels of eastern support” for Ukraine and Russia respectively. Here’s why I am not worried: even if we approach this issue strictly selfishly, NATO would suffer immensely for Ukraine to actually crumble. Even if we assume Ukrainian lives are zero value to the west, IMO Ukraine losing is something NATO would put boots on the ground to prevent because of the incredible risk associated with Ukraine being absorbed into Russia. So my 2 cents is that even in the worst of scenarios, “the west” would at one point step in and we’d have actual US Air Force presence and whatnot and it would all be fine. The downside to Ukraine losing is too big even if we assume it’s only a matter of land and all the humans have zero value. Question 1: does anyone think I’m wrong about this? I feel like even just Poland or other nearby nations would go full ass into war before letting Ukraine lose because it’s too big of a risk for them. Question 2: At what point do people think NATO or other nations take the gloves off and actually actively participate. Germany is doing a lot. But this is not Germany mobilizing their army and doing everything they can. This is still aid. I’m talking full ass. Does anyone have any perspectives on what the red line is where the west just hops right in themselves? I don't understand your reasoning at all. Why would the West or even just nearby countries want to get directly involved? I mean, I can imagine a scenario in which Ukrainian government somehow collapses and Western forces step in to protect Western Ukraine, but I find that incredibly unlikely, like below 5% probability. I also think you're misinterpreting the German role in this. They don't have an army they could mobilize in a few months. Sending lots of money and moderate amounts of equipment to Ukraine is all that you can reasonably expect from Germany, or Europe in general. There is no red line outside of the European Union's borders that Russians could cross to provoke escalation. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
Let’s say Putin just flat out conquers Ukraine. Is that not a huge net negative to the overall security of nations bordering Ukraine? If the whole idea is that it’s completely off the table to ever actually prevent Russia from conquering nations, does that not mean all non-NATO nations are just entirely free for Putin? If the west collectively agrees no loss is ever worth angering Russia, it feels like the natural conclusion to that is eventually all land is an acceptable loss. Is there some well-understood red line that I am not correctly perceiving? The enormous advantage Russia would gain from actually conquering Ukraine must be viewed as some bad situation to nations bordering Ukraine. Is it that you guys are saying NATO is so invincible that even if Putin entirely seized Ukraine, Putin would never in a million years push it 1 step further? All of the messaging I see out of NATO, the US, and Europe is : “supporting Ukraine is infinitely better than letting Ukraine fall because all it would do is make it our problem instead down the road and Russia would be even stronger” So then how does that jive with “nah we’d just let Putin take Ukraine because we need to appease him at every possible opportunity”? If there is a worse situation created by letting him take Ukraine, I basically don’t buy the idea that NATO would defend Poland. Letting Poland fall is clearly way better than nuclear war. Letting all of Europe fall is clearly way better than nuclear war. You could argue just letting Russia conquer the entire world is better than nuclear war. What am I misunderstanding? This feels like the reasoning could just be applied infinitely. | ||
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KwarK
United States44203 Posts
Yes, all nations that don’t have a security agreement with a nuclear power are on the table for Putin. Yes, all land is an acceptable loss. The red line is NATO. That’s exactly why historically super neutral countries are joining NATO. That’s why nuclear powers just annexing their neighbours is seen as a death blow to nuclear non proliferation. That’s why all this support is being ploughed into Ukraine, despite Ukraine not being a western ally. I don’t get where you’re coming from. Your conclusion that nuclear armed imperial expansionism is bad is self evident. Your conclusion that the rest of the world should stand against it is self evident. That’s what they’re doing. It’s like you’re saying “if what you’re saying about a heliocentric solar system is true then that would mean the sun would rise in the east”. You’re conditionally deriving the things that are already evidently true. | ||
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